Axios

One Nation, a nonprofit group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is gearing up for a $43 million summer spending blitz targeting five competitive Senate seats, the group tells Axios.

Why it matters: The biggest target by far is Georgia. The GOP effort to wrest back the seat from Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) will get an infusion of more than $17 million — about 40% of the nationwide spend.

Nihilism about the Senate's ability to do anything after yet another horrific mass shooting — this one taking the lives of 19 children and two teachers in Uvalde, Texas — permeated social media and the halls of Congress on Wednesday.

The big picture: Most lawmakers, even Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), remain highly skeptical that this time will be the time lawmakers strike a compromise. But there are at least five reasons to believe the dam may finally be ready to break.

A majority of Americans say they disapprove of the Supreme Court after a draft opinion that could overturn Roe v. Wade was leaked earlier this month, a new poll has found.

Driving the news: The Marquette Law School poll results were a major shift from March when the same poll found respondents viewed the court more favorably.

The State Bar of Texas filed a lawsuit Wednesday to reprimand Attorney General Ken Paxton for his attempt to overturn 2020 election results in battleground states that former President Trump lost, AP reports.

Why it matters: The lawsuit comes a day after Trump-endorsed Paxton defeated George P. Bush for the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general, potentially setting him up for a third term at the post.

President Biden on Wednesday signed a police reform executive order to create a national database of police misconduct, ban the use of chokeholds unless deadly force is authorized and require anti-bias training.

Why it matters: Wednesday marks two years since a white police officer kneeled on George Floyd's neck for nine minutes as he said "I can't breathe" over 20 times. Black civil rights advocates have decried stalled progress on police reform in Congress and slammed the continued lack of accountability for police killings that followed Floyd's death.

Senate Democrats tell Axios they believe President Biden's offhand remarks signaling the U.S. would militarily defend Taiwan against an attack from China were deliberate — though not strategic.

Driving the news: Axios interviewed a series of Democratic senators close to the president. Many — both privately and publicly — conceded they think the president personally believes the U.S. should get involved militarily should China invade Taiwan.

Pope Francis on Wednesday said his "heart is broken" over the shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, and he made a plea to stop the "trafficking of weapons."

Driving the news: The gunman killed 19 students and two teachers in a single classroom Tuesday in one of the deadliest mass shootings in U.S. history.

A New York federal judge on Wednesday dismissed a lawsuit from gun makers challenging the constitutionality of a law that allows state officials to sue manufacturers over potential harm caused using the weapons they produce.

Driving the news: The ruling comes a day after the Texas elementary school shooting that resulted in the deaths of at least 19 kids and two adults, which has led to an increase in calls for Congress to zero in on legislation focused on gun control.

House sergeant-at-arms William Walker sent a letter Wednesday to Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) saying he doesn't think lawmakers should carry firearms inside the U.S. Capitol.

Why it matters: Walker's letter comes the day after a gunman opened fire at a Texas elementary school, killing 19 children and two teachers. It's also been over a year since armed rioters stormed the Capitol and put lawmakers at risk.

The National Rifle Association said in a statement Wednesday that it still intends to hold its annual meeting in Houston this week despite the mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, that left at least 19 children and two adults dead.

Why it matters: The attack in Uvalde and another mass shooting in Buffalo, New York, that left 10 dead on May 14 have intensified the debate on gun control legislation and renewed scrutiny of gun rights organizations like the NRA and gun manufacturers.

Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke (D) on Wednesday confronted Gov. Greg Abbott (R) during a press conference on the Uvalde, Texas, elementary school mass shooting, yelling, "You're offering us nothing!"

Why it matters: O'Rourke is challenging Abbott for the governorship and has been highly critical of the incumbent's support of gun rights.

The wife of Brittney Griner, the WNBA player detained in Russia, in a "Good Morning America" interview Wednesday urged President Biden to do whatever it takes to bring the basketball player home.

Driving the news: Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Cherelle Griner last week and said that bringing her wife home is a top priority for his department, a State Department spokesperson confirmed to Axios at the time.

Pennsylvania will hold a statewide recount for its Senate Republican primary, which remains too close to call, state election officials said Wednesday.

Why it matters: The race between Trump-backed celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick is one of the most closely watched contests in the country. Many view the election as a test of former President Trump's political power.

Former President Donald Trump confirmed in a statement Wednesday that he still intends to speak at an annual meeting of the National Rifle Association, which is set to take place in Houston later this week.

Driving the news: Trump's doubling down on his speaking engagement comes a day after a gunman killed at least 19 children and two adults at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas.

The federal government's budget deficit is expected to shrink this year before skyrocketing in the years ahead, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Wednesday.

Why it matters: America's reprieve from climbing deficits is only temporary as coronavirus-related government spending wanes and tax revenues increase.

Senate Democrats and Republicans held small-group discussions Wednesday to gauge bipartisan support for passage of any legislation in the wake of the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting.

What we're hearing: The most realistic path, as of now, seems to be through "red flag" legislation, which would allow authorities to temporarily take guns away from people considered to be a threat to themselves or others, senators say.

Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas on Wednesday said that a Border Patrol agent was among those injured in the Texas elementary school shooting that resulted in the deaths of 19 children and two adults.

What he's saying: "We are grateful for the courageous members of our Border Patrol, many of whom are part of the Uvalde and surrounding communities, who immediately responded to the scene along with local and state law enforcement. Without hesitation, they put themselves between the shooter and students to end the bloodshed and administer medical aid," Mayorkas said in a statement.

Financial contributions in support of gun rights have skyrocketed since 2012 despite the alarming number of mass shootings in the U.S.

By the numbers: Following the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School that resulted in the deaths of 26 people, including 20 children, there was a steady climb in the amount of money spent in support of gun rights, reaching $15.2 million in 2013. In 2021, that peak increased by around $600,000, according to Open Secrets, an organization that tracks money in U.S. politics.

In the wake of the Texas elementary school shooting, where 19 kids and 2 adults were killed, there is renewed scrutiny on the hundreds of thousands of dollars Republican lawmakers have received in campaign contributions from groups supporting gun rights.

Driving the news: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) received the most money from gun rights supporters. On Tuesday, he received major backlash for responding to the shooting by saying that gun control will not help and that "we need to devote far more law enforcement resources to stopping violent criminals."

The Environmental Protection Agency took another step toward blocking a controversial copper and gold mine in the watershed of Alaska's Bristol Bay, proposing new restrictions that are likely to kill the project.

Why it matters: The bay includes the world's largest sockeye salmon fishery. Construction of the Pebble Mine project would have a significant impact on fishing in the area and the ecosystem as a whole, the EPA says.

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) signed legislation Wednesday that legalizes recreational marijuana use in the state for adults 21 and older.

Why it matters: Rhode Island is now the 20th state in the country, along with the District of Columbia, to legalize marijuana for non-medical use.

Brad Finstad won a crowded GOP primary on Wednesday to fill an open southern Minnesota congressional seat, as Jeff Ettinger secured the DFL nomination by a wide margin, per the AP.

The big picture: Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn died in February after a battle with kidney cancer, setting off a fierce intra-party fight for the chance to serve out the remainder of his term in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday slammed Republicans on the hill who he says "care more about the NRA," one day after an attack at a Texas elementary school killed at least 19 children and two adults.

Driving the news: Schumer seemed to indicate that he wants to push for gun legislation before the Senate considers the House-passed background check bills that have failed to garner necessary Republican support in the past.

After the deadliest school shooting in nearly a decade, lawmakers are making emotional pleas for stricter gun control legislation. "What are we doing?" an impassioned Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said on the Senate floor on Tuesday after an attack at a Texas elementary school killed at least 19 children and two adults.

The big picture: There's a familiar pattern. In the wake of a mass shooting, Congress zeroes in on gun and other relevant legislation, but Republicans won't support most new gun laws and Democrats don't have 50 senators who are willing to ditch the filibuster to take a majority vote.

The long-awaited final report into lockdown parties at British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's official London residence and government offices in Whitehall was published on Wednesday morning.

Driving the news: The report by senior civil servant Sue Gray builds on earlier findings in her interim investigation of a "serious failure" to observe the standards expected of government officials and features several photos of Johnson surrounded by alcohol, including one where he's raising a glass at his birthday party.

The power of Donald Trump’s endorsement took a beating in Georgia's primaries as he failed to dislodge all of the Republican elected officials he targeted, including some he's publicly treated as sworn enemies.

Why it matters: Georgia was Ground Zero for Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election. His struggle to elevate candidates in the state who loudly echo his lies about stolen elections cast doubt on the 2020 election's continued salience for GOP voters — and may presage his weakened lock on the party.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his condolences Wednesday to the families of the victims of the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas.

What they're saying: Zelensky tweeted following Tuesday's shooting that left 19 students and at least two adults dead that he's "deeply saddened by the news of the murder of innocent children."

As many as 50,000 migrants are waiting in Mexican shelters for a chance to cross the border, hoping to run out the clock on Title 42, the COVID-era rule limiting entry to the U.S., according to internal documents reviewed by Axios.

Why it matters: That's double the estimate from back in March, when Axios first reported on the government's preparations for a "mass migration event."

Nineteen students and at least two adults are dead after a gunman opened fire at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, Tuesday, police said.

The latest: At least 17 others were injured, but no injuries are life threatening, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Wednesday speaking in Uvalde.

Five Russian soldiers and three mercenaries have been charged with the murder of a Ukrainian mayor and her family in a Kyiv region village, Ukraine's prosecutor general Irina Venediktova said Tuesday.

Driving the news: Venediktova alleged in a Facebook post the soldiers and mercenaries from Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization with ties to Russia's President Vladimir Putin, "kidnapped Olga Sukhenko, her husband and son from their home in the village of Motizhyn" in March.

The British government has issued a license permitting the sale of English soccer team Chelsea to a group led by American investor Todd Boehly for a record $3.1 billion, Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries announced Wednesday.

Driving the news: Dorries confirmed the license was issued to the group on Tuesday night authorizing the sale of the Premier League side after the U.K. froze the assets of former owner Roman Abramovich for the Russian oligarch's ties to Russia's President Vladimir Putin in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern discussed New Zealand's swift gun control reforms following the Christchurch mosque attacks as she responded to Tuesday's Texas school shooting during an appearance on CBS' "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert."

What she's saying: Ardern told Colbert she viewed what happened at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, not as a politician but as a mother. "I'm so sorry for what has happened here," she said. "And then I think about what happened to us, and all I can reflect is: We are a very pragmatic people.

Sen. Ted Cruz is facing backlash after his response to the Texas elementary school shooting that left 19 students and two adults dead.

Driving the news: Democrats, gun control groups and others slammed the pro-gun rights Texas senator after he called for more armed law enforcement on school campuses following Tuesday's shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde and offered prayers to victims and their families.

Incumbent Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger held off a challenge from Rep. Jody Hice in the GOP primary, AP reported early Wednesday, the second major defeat for former President Trump in the Georgia primaries.

Why it matters: Perhaps no Georgia Republican faced as much blowback and as many withering attacks from former President Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 election than Raffensperger.

The race for the Republican nomination for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat is headed to a runoff between Katie Britt and Rep. Mo Brooks, the AP reported.

Why it matters: The contest for retiring Sen. Richard Shelby's open seat became one of the more prominent primary elections, after Brooks received — and then lost — President Trump's endorsement.

Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.) defeated fellow incumbent Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) in Bourdeaux's own Georgia's 7th district Tuesday, the AP reported.

Why it matters: The primary was seen as a proxy battle between the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic Party, though the voting records of the two are similar.

Embattled Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton fended off a challenge from George P. Bush, the scion of the famed political family, in the race for the Republican nomination for attorney general, per the AP.

Why it matters: By proxy, Paxton's victory is another win for former President Trump, who returned the attorney general's loyalty with a much-coveted endorsement.

Former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders won the Republican nomination for Arkansas governor on Tuesday, per the AP.

Why it matters: Sanders, the daughter of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, is the most well-known former Trump official to notch a primary win so far this cycle.

In a fiery speech from the White House on Tuesday, President Biden expressed anger, disappointment and pain over the Texas elementary school shooting that killed at least 18 children.

What he's saying: “How many scores of little children who witnessed what happened, who’ve seen their friends die like they're on a battlefield, for God's sake," Biden said.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), one of the most controversial and conservative members of the U.S. House, fended off a slew of primary challengers to become the 14th District's nominee, the AP reported.

Why it matters: In the deep-red northwest Georgia district, the Trump-backed Greene is likely to defeat her Democratic opponent, despite losing her committee assignments for past social media activity and an attempt to remove her from the ballot through the courts.

Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr gave an impassioned plea for gun control on Tuesday, just hours after a shooter opened fire and killed at least 18 students and three teachers at a school in Uvalde, Texas.

The big picture: Kerr has been an outspoken advocate for gun control since his father, Malcolm Kerr, was shot twice in the back of the head in Beirut in 1984 where he was the university president at the American University of Beirut.

Georgia's incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has fended off a primary challenge from Trump-backed former U.S. Sen. David Perdue, the AP reported.

• He's now headed into a rematch with Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams, whom Kemp defeated in 2018.

Why it matters: Beating Kemp was a top priority of former President Trump after Kemp refused to help him overturn the 2020 election results.

Vice President Kamala Harris urged lawmakers to "take action" on gun control after at least 18 students and an adult were killed in a school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, on Tuesday.

What she's saying: "We would all say naturally that our hearts break, but our hearts keep getting broken," Harris said during a speech at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies 20th Annual Awards Gala, CNN reported.