National

The International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global growth outlook Monday, driven by easing inflation, China reopening its economy and resilient demand in the U.S. and Europe.

What to expect: The IMF expects global growth to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% this year — up from the 2.7% it predicted in October when it said "for many people 2023 will feel like a recession." 

Now, the IMF expects the economy to rebound in 2024, with its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas saying "a global recession is not in our baseline."

Inflation is "peaking," with 84% of countries forecast to face lower headline inflation in 2023 compared to 2022, according to the IMF World Economic update. Global inflation is set to fall from 8.8% in 2022 (annual average) to 6.6% this year and 4.3% in 2024.

Yes, but: The IMF report notes "tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress. Russian forces' war on Ukraine and potential "severe health outcomes in China" could also potentially impact economic activity, while inflation could still be a problem.

"The fight against inflation has started to bear fruit, but the battle is far from won," Gourinchas said in a post accompanying the update, noting central banks needed to continue with their efforts.

The big picture: "The global economy has shown a lot of resilience," Gourinchas said. 

"Labor markets are tight, household spending and business investment remain strong, and European economies proved quite resilient against the energy crisis," he added. 

"The slowdown will be more pronounced for advanced economies. China and India will account for 50% of global growth."

Meanwhile, the IMF predicts that global headline inflation will fall from 8.8% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2024, though core inflation remains too elevated.

The bottom line: Barring new shocks, "2023 could be the year of turning points, with growth bottoming out and inflation decreasing,"  per Gourinchas. "We're well away from any sort of global recession marker."

Our thought bubble, via Axios' Felix Salmon: The dominant narrative in 2023 looks increasingly likely to be exactly the same as we saw in 2022: No recession, despite roughly half the population being convinced we're already in one.

Read the full IMF report, via DocumentCloud:

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details from the IMF report and more context.

IMF raises global growth forecasts as inflation eases

"2023 could be the year of turning points, with growth bottoming out and inflation decreasing," IMF chief economist says.

Employees work on the assembly line of vehicles at a factory of Beijing Automobile Works (Qingdao) Co., Ltd. on January 14, 2023 in Qingdao, Shandong Province of China. 

Employees work on the assembly line of vehicles at a factory of Beijing Automobile Works in Qingdao in the Shandong Province of China earlier this month. Photo:  Zhang Jingang/VCG via Getty Images

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Economy & Business

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson claims in a new BBC documentary that Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened him with a missile during an "extraordinary" phone call before the Ukraine invasion.

What he's saying: "He threatened me at one point, and he said, 'Boris, I don't want to hurt you but, with a missile, it would only take a minute' or something like that. Jolly," Johnson told the documentary, "Putin vs. the West," airing in the U.K. on  Monday.

"But I think from the very relaxed tone that he was taking, the sort of air of detachment that he seemed to have, he was just playing along with my attempts to get him to negotiate," Johnson said.

He said he emphasized to Putin in trying to dissuade him from invading Ukraine that Kyiv wouldn't join NATO "for the foreseeable future."

Johnson added that he told Putin that an invasion would mean "more NATO, not less NATO" near Russia's borders.

The Kremlin denied Putin made the threat. 

"What Mr. Johnson said is not true. More precisely, it is a lie," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday. "There were no missile threats."

“While talking about security challenges to Russia, President Putin said that if Ukraine joins NATO the potential deployment of U.S. or other NATO missiles near our borders would mean that any such missile could reach Moscow in minutes," he added. 

The big picture: Johnson stepped down as leader of the ruling British Conservative Party last year following a string of scandals but has remained a staunch supporter of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

The former U.K. prime minister met with Zelensky during a visit to Kyiv earlier this month — the third such trip he's made since Putin's war on Ukraine began last February.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the Kremlin's denial. 

Ex-U.K. PM claims Putin made "jolly" missile threat to him in call on Ukraine

The former U.K. PM told the BBC he thinks Putin "was just playing along with my attempts to get him to negotiate."

Boris Johnson, former UK prime minister, during an event on the sidelines of day three of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, Jan. 19.

Former United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson during an event on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 19. Photo: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Boris Johnson

Russia

Former U.K. Prime Minister <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Boris Johnson" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/07/why-boris-johnson-resigned-prime-minister" data-vars-content-id="17e4c4c1-f51d-412b-9568-ab3cb1d4184b" data-vars-headline="Ex-U.K. PM claims Putin made &quot;jolly&quot; missile threat to him in call on Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/07/why-boris-johnson-resigned-prime-minister" target="_self">Boris Johnson</a> claims in a new BBC documentary that Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened him with a missile during an &quot;extraordinary&quot; phone call before the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Ukraine" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/world/axios-explains-ukraine" data-vars-content-id="17e4c4c1-f51d-412b-9568-ab3cb1d4184b" data-vars-headline="Ex-U.K. PM claims Putin made &quot;jolly&quot; missile threat to him in call on Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/world/axios-explains-ukraine" target="_self">Ukraine</a> invasion.What he&#x27;s saying: &quot;He threatened me at one point, and he said, &#x27;Boris, I don&#x27;t want to hurt you but, with a missile, it would only take a minute&#x27; or something like that. Jolly,&quot; Johnson told the documentary, &quot;Putin vs. the West,&quot; airing in the U.K. on Monday.

A grand jury in New Mexico indicted former state Republican candidate Solomon Peña on 14 criminal charges related to shootings at the offices and homes of elected Democratic officials, the Bernalillo County District Attorney's office announced Monday.

Driving the news: Albuquerque police arrested Peña on Jan. 16 and he's in jail ahead of a trial after being accused of conspiring with and paying four other men to shoot at the homes of two county commissioners and two state legislators, per CNN.

Zoom in: The jury indicted him on charges including three counts of criminal solicitation to commit a shooting at a dwelling or occupied building and two of conspiracy to commit a shooting at a dwelling or occupied building, according to a statement from the district attorney's office.

Other charges include one count of shooting at a dwelling or occupied building and two of transportation or possession of a firearm or destructive device.

The big picture: Peña unsuccessfully ran as a candidate for the House District 14 seat in the South Valley in the last state elections.

What they're saying: Representatives for Peña could not be immediately reached for comment, but his attorney Roberta Yurcic told CBS News this month they looked forward to "a full and fair investigation of these claims."

"At this point, the charges against Mr. Peña are merely accusations that have not yet been tested by the full rigor of the judicial process. Mr. Peña is presumed innocent of the charges against him," Yurcic said.

"I plan to fully defend Mr. Peña and fiercely safeguard his rights throughout this process." 

Ex-New Mexico state GOP candidate indicted in shootings at officials' homes

A grand jury in New Mexico indicted the former state House candidate on 14 criminal charges related to shootings.

Albuquerque SWAT officers take Solomon Peña into custody Monday in Southwest Albuquerque. 

Albuquerque SWAT officers take Solomon Peña into custody Monday in southwest Albuquerque, N.M. Photo: Roberto E. Rosales/Albuquerque Journal

New Mexico

A grand jury in New Mexico indicted former state Republican candidate <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Solomon Peña" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/17/solomon-pena-new-mexico-democrats-shootings" data-vars-content-id="409e81cc-205e-4221-9944-18251f7a0e28" data-vars-headline="Ex-New Mexico state GOP candidate indicted in shootings at officials&#x27; homes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/17/solomon-pena-new-mexico-democrats-shootings" target="_self">Solomon Peña</a> on 14 criminal charges related to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="shootings at the offices" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/06/new-mexico-shootings-democrats-homes" data-vars-content-id="409e81cc-205e-4221-9944-18251f7a0e28" data-vars-headline="Ex-New Mexico state GOP candidate indicted in shootings at officials&#x27; homes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/06/new-mexico-shootings-democrats-homes" target="_self">shootings at the offices</a> and homes of elected Democratic officials, the Bernalillo County District Attorney&#x27;s office announced Monday.Driving the news: Albuquerque <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="police arrested Peña" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/17/new-mexico-ex-republican-state-candidate-pena-arrested" data-vars-content-id="409e81cc-205e-4221-9944-18251f7a0e28" data-vars-headline="Ex-New Mexico state GOP candidate indicted in shootings at officials&#x27; homes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/17/new-mexico-ex-republican-state-candidate-pena-arrested" target="_self">police arrested Peña</a> on Jan. 16 and he&#x27;s in jail ahead of a trial after being accused of conspiring with and paying four other men to shoot at the homes of two county commissioners and two state legislators, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="per CNN" data-vars-click-url="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/23/us/solomon-pena-court-detention-hearing/index.html" data-vars-content-id="409e81cc-205e-4221-9944-18251f7a0e28" data-vars-headline="Ex-New Mexico state GOP candidate indicted in shootings at officials&#x27; homes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/23/us/solomon-pena-court-detention-hearing/index.html" target="_blank">per CNN</a>.

Mining giant Rio Tinto apologized Monday as authorities in Western Australia searched for a tiny radioactive capsule that went missing in the vast Australian state.

Driving the news: A radiation alert was issued across parts of W.A. after the capsule containing a small amount of radioactive Caesium-137 vanished while being transported from Rio Tinto's Gudai-Darri mine in the remote Pilbara region to a storage facility about 870 miles away in state capital Perth, authorities said.

Context: W.A. is Australia’s largest state, with a total land area of some 975,685 square miles.

It is sparsely populated and 75% of its 2.7 million residents live in Perth.

The big picture: A specialist contractor picked the silver capsule that's 0.24 inches wide and 0.31 inches long up from the mine that's near Newman on Jan. 12 and it was transported by truck to the storage facility on Jan. 16, the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) in Western Australia said.

It was discovered to be missing on Jan. 25 when the gauge was unpacked for inspection. Emergency services were notified and a search began soon after. Authorities announced two days later that the capsule had vanished.

An image of the capsule next to an Australian 10 cent coin, which is larger than it, to give an idea of how tiny it is.

"Upon opening the package, it was found that the gauge was broken apart with one of the four mounting bolts missing and the source itself and all screws on the gauge also missing," per a statement from the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) in Western Australia.

An image of the capsule next to an Australian 10-cent coin. Photo: Department of Fire and Emergency Services, Western Australia.

State of play: "DFES and radiation specialists are searching along Great Northern Highway by driving north and south directions at slow speeds," said DFES in an update Monday, urging people to take care when approaching and use caution when overtaking the search party.

"Exposure to this substance could cause radiation burns or radiation sickness. ... Risk to the general community is relatively low, however, it is important to be aware of the risks," the statement added.

What they're saying: "We are taking this incident very seriously. We recognize this is clearly very concerning and are sorry for the alarm it has caused in the Western Australian community," said Rio Tinto's iron ore division chief Simon Trott in a statement to media Monday.

"As well as fully supporting the relevant authorities, we have launched our own investigation to understand how the capsule was lost in transit," Trott added.

An image showing parts of Western Australia affected by a radiation warning, from Newman in the Pilbara region to state capital Perth,  due to a missing radioactive capsule.

Photo: Department of Fire and Emergency Services, Western Australia/Facebook

Of note: Western Australia's Chief Health Officer Andrew Robertson said at a news conference Saturday that W.A. authorities decided to hold off until Friday to publicly announce that the capsule had gone missing while authorities searched the mine and storage facilities and confirmed the transportation route.

Investigators concluded the capsule hadn't been stolen after finding the box it was stored in contained "anti-tampering" tape and police determined that the matter was an accident, per Australian Associated Press.

What we're watching: "There is the potential that we may not find this," given the extensive distance the truck traveled, said DFES Chief Superintendent Country North David Gill at Saturday's news conference.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

Authorities search for tiny radioactive capsule missing in Australia

The exposure risk was low, but it "could cause radiation burns or radiation sickness," authorities in Western Australia said.

Trucks travel along an access road at the Gudai-Darri iron ore mine operated by the Rio Tinto Group in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, Australia, on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. 

Trucks travel along an access road at the Gudai-Darri iron ore mine, operated by the Rio Tinto Group, in the Pilbara region of Western Australia in June 2022. Photo: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Australia

Mining giant <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Rio Tinto" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2019/09/26/mining-china-steel-emissions" data-vars-content-id="476028b2-1376-44b7-b5dd-3912b2228c03" data-vars-headline="Authorities search for tiny radioactive capsule missing in Australia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2019/09/26/mining-china-steel-emissions" target="_self">Rio Tinto</a> apologized Monday as authorities in Western Australia searched for a tiny radioactive capsule that went missing in the vast Australian state.Driving the news: A radiation <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="alert" data-vars-click-url="https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au/#map/warning/hgw_782562605/moreinfo" data-vars-content-id="476028b2-1376-44b7-b5dd-3912b2228c03" data-vars-headline="Authorities search for tiny radioactive capsule missing in Australia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.emergency.wa.gov.au/#map/warning/hgw_782562605/moreinfo" target="_blank">alert</a> was issued across parts of W.A. after the capsule containing a small amount of radioactive Caesium-137 vanished while being transported from Rio Tinto&#x27;s Gudai-Darri mine in the remote Pilbara region to a storage facility about 870 miles away in state capital Perth, authorities said.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Monday defended the Biden administration's new border policy designed to curb illegal border crossings in the face of a lawsuit from Florida and 19 other states challenging the program.

Why it matters: The states argue in the suit against the Department of Homeland Security that the program allowing up to 30,000 migrants a month from Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua to live and work in the U.S is an executive power overreach and in violation of federal immigration law.

Context: President Biden announced the policy that offers legal entry into the U.S. under humanitarian parole earlier this month as part of a carrot and stick approach to border crossings, per Axios' Stef W. Kight.

What he's saying: "We believe in the lawfulness of this program," Mayorkas told reporters during a visit to Miami, per South Florida broadcaster WLRN-FM. 

"Why these states would oppose an enforcement program that is proving successful is beyond my comprehension."

Mayorkas said the new program had seen a "significant number" of applications and "admitted individuals into the United States" who were granted work authorization.

"We've also seen a significant drop in the number of Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicuaraguans and Haitians arriving irregularly in between our ports of entry at the Southern border — nearly a 90% drop in those populations," Mayorkas added. "This is the model that we have built and we will continue to build."

By the numbers: Preliminary numbers from January released last week indicate that "encounters of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans crossing unlawfully between ports of entry at the southwest border declined 97% compared to December," per a Department of Homeland Security statement issued last week.

Flashback: Illegal border crossings reach highest number since Biden took office

Miami

Miami Members

Miami Alerts

A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Miami.

Axios Miami Thought Bubble

Axios Miami

DHS chief: Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua border arrivals fell nearly 90%

A new program allowing up to 30,000 migrants a month from those countries saw "significant number" of applications, Alejandro Mayorkas said.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas alongside Miami-Dade mayor Daniella Levine Cava speak during press conference during a visit to Miami on Jan. 30, 2023.

Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during a press conference in Miami, Florida, on Monday. Photo: Syra Ortiz-Blanes/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Migrants

Immigration

Homeland Security Secretary <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Alejandro Mayorkas" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/06/hispanic-mayorkas-border-policy-immigration" data-vars-content-id="5dafc0c8-a1a0-4cd4-88fe-0f7a3a0db38e" data-vars-headline="DHS chief: Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua border arrivals fell nearly 90%" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/06/hispanic-mayorkas-border-policy-immigration" target="_self">Alejandro Mayorkas</a> on Monday defended the Biden administration&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="new border policy" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/05/biden-border-policy-humanitarian-parole" data-vars-content-id="5dafc0c8-a1a0-4cd4-88fe-0f7a3a0db38e" data-vars-headline="DHS chief: Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua border arrivals fell nearly 90%" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/05/biden-border-policy-humanitarian-parole" target="_self">new border policy</a> designed to curb illegal border crossings in the face of a lawsuit from Florida and 19 other states challenging the program.Why it matters: The states <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="argue" data-vars-click-url="http://myfloridalegal.com/webfiles.nsf/WF/GPEY-CNDSC7/$file/Texas+Parole+Suit.pdf" data-vars-content-id="5dafc0c8-a1a0-4cd4-88fe-0f7a3a0db38e" data-vars-headline="DHS chief: Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua border arrivals fell nearly 90%" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://myfloridalegal.com/webfiles.nsf/WF/GPEY-CNDSC7/$file/Texas+Parole+Suit.pdf" target="_blank">argue</a> in the suit against the Department of Homeland Security that the program allowing up to 30,000 migrants a month from Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua to live and work in the U.S is an executive power overreach and in violation of federal immigration law.

Rebecca Falconer

Stories

Ex-New Mexico state GOP candidate indicted in shootings at officials' homes

IMF raises global growth forecasts as inflation eases

DHS chief: Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua border arrivals fell nearly 90%

Authorities search for tiny radioactive capsule missing in Australia

Ex-U.K. PM claims Putin made "jolly" missile threat to him in call on Ukraine