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President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

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FDA moves to ease blood donor restrictions on gay men amid national shortage

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President Biden "has carefully and cautiously waged war in Ukraine with no American troops." He just "had one of the best first term off-year elections in history." Nancy Pelosi? Ron Klain? Jill Biden?

No. That was Newt Gingrich — leader of the Republican revolution of 1994, which swept him in as speaker of the House.

"Quit Underestimating President Biden," Gingrich wrote in a column this week. "[C]onservatives' hostility to the Biden administration ... tends to blind us to just how effective Biden has been on his terms."

Why it matters: Gingrich has a point. If you look at Biden's legislative accomplishments, he has exceeded expectations for a Congress where Democrats hold narrow majorities, and a country that's split in two.

Gingrich, 79, told me: "I was thinking about football and the clarity of winning and losing. It hit me that, measured by his goals, Biden has been much more successful than we have been willing to credit."

Biden agrees. Advisers tell me he hasn't made a formal decision about running again — that'll come over Christmas, ultimately made by him and the first lady.

But his friends tell me they think only two things could stop him: health or Jill.

With Republicans controlling the House, Biden won't be able to pass much in the second term. But the subtext of his Year 3 and 4 travel around the country will be: Look at my results.

He'll argue that he helped produce record-low joblessness, America-first jobs in manufacturing and computer chips, and the largest infrastructure and green energy bills in history.

The way the White House will sell the record: "The most significant economic recovery package since Roosevelt ... The largest infrastructure plan since Eisenhower ... The most sweeping gun reform bill since Clinton ... Landmark China competitiveness legislation that's already bringing manufacturing jobs back from overseas ... The largest climate change bill in history."

Gingrich had this hard talk for his own party: "Today there is not nearly enough understanding (or acknowledgement) among leading Republicans that our system and approach failed."

"We need to rethink from the ground up how we are going to Defeat Big Government Socialism — including almost inevitable second-time Democrat Presidential Nominee Biden."

"This is a much bigger challenge than I would have guessed before the election."

The bottom line: A month ago, it would have been tough to imagine a leader of the GOP's '90s-era New Right arguing that Joe Biden is not just a winner — but a role model.

"Biden has been much more successful than we have been willing to credit."

Then-Sen. Joe Biden and Newt Gingrich on "Meet the Press" in 2006.

Then-Sen. Joe Biden and Newt Gingrich on "Meet the Press" in 2006. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images for Meet the Press

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Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED; Chart: Axios Visuals

Americans are spending most of what they're earning these days. The savings rate in October was the lowest since 2005 — and the second-lowest on record, according to data from the Commerce Department released Thursday.

Why it matters: Thanks to higher prices and a return to "normal" life that has folks traveling and going out again, Americans are spending more and saving less.  

And for now, many are sitting on a lot of savings — so they don't need to sock as much money away.

Zoom out: A lot of folks built up a big cash cushion over the past couple of years (note the big spike in the chart above) but with inflation trending higher than wage increases, at some point, something's got to give.

"Americans’ cash war chest has been dwindling, and the spending extravaganza cannot last," writes Kroll's global chief economist, Megan Greene, in the FT.

Our savings rate just plunged to the lowest since 2005.

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It's easy to see the latest algorithms write a story or create an image from text and think that they are ready to take on a whole range of human tasks. But experts insist that AI systems' growing power makes it more important than ever to keep humans in the loop.

Why it matters: AI-based computer systems are being used to handle an array of increasingly consequential tasks. While machine learning-trained systems do many things well, they can also be confidently wrong — a dangerous combination.

Many of today's most powerful AI systems aim to offer a convincing response to any question, regardless of accuracy.

"If you don’t know, you should just say you don’t know rather than make something up," says Stanford researcher Percy Liang, who spoke at a Stanford event Thursday.

Liang has launched a project to evaluate the latest machine learning models on a range of factors, from accuracy to transparency. 

The goal, he said, is to create something equivalent to Consumer Reports, where people can go to understand the strengths and weaknesses of foundational AI models, such as those from Meta, Google and OpenAI.

Factuality is just one part of this picture. It also matters a great deal what basis an AI system has for providing an answer, and who benefits. 

Historically, computer systems have been designed mostly for the people using them. 

But an algorithm choosing a criminal sentence, for example, needs not only  to serve the judge it's advising but also crime victims, perpetrators and society as a whole. 

Many Americans would feel, for example, that it should take into account the impact of incarcerating a significant portion of the African American adult male population.

This doesn't mean "asking a neural network to understand racism," James Landay, the co-founder of Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered AI, told a daylong gathering with reporters on Thursday. 

"It's asking the team building a system to understand racism. That’s not a question computer scientists who are generally building these systems are equipped to handle."

The big picture: For years, AI researchers have talked theoretically about responsible ways to design such systems and divide the future of work between humans and computers. However, a flood of powerful new systems is giving these questions practical urgency.

Between the lines: For all the talk of computers replacing or even replicating human activity, the most powerful use of them may be to help humans do their jobs better.

"Just simply mimicking human beings is meager," Stanford professor Erik Brynjolfsson said at the event. "Paradoxically It’s also too hard." 

That's because computers excel at tasks where humans falter, from processing vast amounts of data to spotting patterns that even a skilled researcher might miss.

At the same time, computers and robots still can't match humans at everything from gauging the delicate pressure needed to pick a blueberry to walking on a bumpy trail.

Zoom out: An equitable distribution of the fruits of AI will depend on whether it's used to replace humans, which tends to drive down pay, or to augment them, which drives it up, Brynjolfsson argues. 

Over the past century, we've largely used technology to make individual workers more productive, and that's raised the standard of living, he says.

In recent years, though, we've been building more machines that substitute for humans. That's concentrated wealth further in fewer hands, while those with a high school education or less face higher rates of despair, drug abuse and suicide. 

"For most of us that’s probably not the world we want to live in," Brynjolfsson said.

Be smart: Pairing humans and computers may have advantages for society, Brynjolfsson said, but it can also get better results for businesses.

In automating call centers, Brynjolfsson points out, you can substitute machines for people and frustrate customers. Or you can take the path of a company he is advising, Cresta, whose system monitors calls and offers suggestions to  human call center workers. 

That saves companies money, maintains jobs and leads to happier customers, Brynjolfsson says: "Keeping the human in the loop seems to work a lot better."

Today's AI can do amazing things, but its tendency to be confidently wrong demands humans stay involved.

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Column / Signal Boost

House Republicans are planning an onslaught of investigations into Biden climate policies that could have an unintended consequence: asking questions progressives want answered. 

Why it matters: The probes could set the table for conversations between Republicans and Democrats in the new Congress about the thorny aspects of transitioning away from fossil fuels, including human rights. 

What they’re saying: Some Republicans say they hope the oversight plans create an opening for bipartisan conversations about cleaning up the dirtier aspects of “clean” energy. 

“Do I think that coming out of the gates, you’re going to have conservatives holding hands and saying, 'Yeah, let’s do this’? No,” said Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.). “[But] I think you will see folks that come to the table willing to talk about these issues.”

Driving the news: Republicans have sent scores of letters to Biden administration officials signaling that next year will see probes into how President Biden handles the many risks and trade-offs with his approach on climate.

They plan on discussing drawbacks in the energy transition that environmentalists, labor groups and human rights activists also want more attention on.

These include working conditions at overseas mining projects and whether moonshot climate technologies are really viable solutions for quick carbon cuts.

One of the investigations will focus on an Energy Department loan program responsible for the Obama-era scandal around Solyndra. Progressives also want the loan program to face more scrutiny. 

The big picture: The transition from burning fossil fuels to avert a climate catastrophe will have myriad consequences for American ways of life, from higher prices and “greenflation” to a new mining boom. 

The GOP’s preferred solutions — like an emphasis on burning “natural” gas —remain out of step with what scientists say we need to address global warming. 

Yes, but: Brett Hartl, government affairs director for the nonprofit Center for Biological Diversity, says this oversight work is needed because Democrats aren't spending more time on whether Biden's climate strategy is actually saving the planet. 

At the same time, he's suspicious of the GOP oversight because "much of their core ideology is based on dismantling federal agencies" like the EPA.  

“It is the classic stopped clock right twice a day type of thing,” Hartl said. “I think it’s an unfortunate reality that there’s not enough oversight coming from the Democratic side.”

The bottom line: Republicans are about to help progressives get more information about climate policy issues where they're frustrated with the Biden administration.

Want more? Secure special end-of-year pricing for Axios Pro: Energy Policy. Contact us.

Republicans have questions that progressive environmentalists want answered.

Illustration of an elephant toeing a blue line

The Food and Drug Administration is weighing a series of moves to make it easier for gay and bisexual men and other individuals to donate blood amid a nationwide blood shortage.

Driving the news: The FDA is considering easing blood donor screening restrictions for men who have sex with men that originated during the HIV/AIDS crisis in the 1980s.

An option under discussion is moving from a three-month deferral period to individual risk assessments based on questionnaires about recent sexual activity, the agency confirmed to Axios.

Approximately 25% of community blood centers across the U.S. have a one-day  supply or less as of Thursday afternoon, according to the America's Blood Centers' daily tracker.

If the FDA lifts the three-month deferral period, the annual blood supply would increase by 2% to 4% annually, according to the Williams Institute, a research center at the UCLA School of Law.

Zoom out: The FDA has lifted blood donor restrictions in other situations while other federal health services have more broadly reevaluated medically disqualifying conditions, including HIV.

The FDA recently removed restrictions for people who lived in European countries that had had outbreaks of Mad Cow Disease, a brain disorder, for fear of transmission.

This decision has made it possible for hundreds of thousands of people to become eligible to donate, which could help increase the number of U.S. blood donations, per AP.

The U.S. Public Health Service on Thursday said it is changing its medical standards to accept future applicants living with chronic hepatitis B and HIV, citing treatments that have made both manageable chronic conditions.

State of play: LGBTQ rights advocates and health experts have urged the FDA to get rid of its blood donation policy for men who have sex with men — and calls intensified after the American Red Cross declared its first-ever "national blood crisis," saying that the U.S. was experiencing its "worst blood shortage in over a decade."

The White House's Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS called the FDA's current policy on gay and bisexual men "discriminatory," saying that it is stigmatizing.

What they're saying: "Now, the question to the FDA ... is, to what extent is this policy based in science and and to what extent is it based in identity?" said Lindsey Dawson, associate director for HIV Policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

"A shift in the policy landscape could mean that no longer would a policy single out a sexually active gay man based on their identity alone, but actually, based on true risk factors," Dawson added.

What we know: An FDA spokesperson told Axios that the potential new screening policy "will be gender neutral and science-based."

Currently, "a man who has protected sex with another man in the three months prior to a blood donation cannot be a donor, but a man or woman who has unprotected sex with multiple partners of the opposite sex over the same time period remains eligible," according to the American Medical Association.

Lesbian and bisexual women do not have a deferral period. 

The background: Donor restrictions for men who have sex with men date to the early 1980s, when the FDA imposed a lifetime ban in response to the HIV epidemic.

The agency updated the policy in 2015, requiring gay or bisexual men to abstain from sex for a year before they could donate blood. That was shortened to a three-month waiting period in 2020, after the American Red Cross said that the COVID pandemic caused a "severe blood shortage."

Details: "The FDA remains committed to evaluating alternatives to the time-based deferral policy by helping to facilitate the generation of the scientific evidence that might support an individual risk assessment-based blood donor questionnaire," the agency said in an emailed statement.

The FDA is reviewing results of an agency-funded study conducted by blood centers that is designed to evaluate whether it is safe to change the donor deferral policy. 

"Although we do not have a specific timeline for when our analysis will be complete, the agency believes the initial data from the study ... will likely support a policy transition to individual risk-based donor screening questions for reducing the risk of HIV transmission," the FDA said.

What's next: The agency said it expects to issue updated draft guidance "in the coming months," once it finishes its study review.

The FDA is considering easing blood donor screening restrictions for gay and bisexual men.

Illustration of a blood bag with a rainbow barcode.

President Biden told Democrats Thursday they must "rid the nominating process of restrictive, anti-worker caucuses" and "reflect the overall diversity" of the party and nation, in a major proposed overhaul ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Why it matters: This would end Iowa's decades-long reign of being the first state in the Democrats' presidential nominating process. Biden's plan would see South Carolina as the first 2024 primary state, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire, Georgia and then Michigan, the Washington Post first reported.

"Our party should no longer allow caucuses as part of our nominating process," Biden said in a letter to the Democratic National Committee's rule-making arm Thursday. 

Details: The co-chairs of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee announced Biden's proposal at a dinner Thursday evening, according to multiple reports.

The matter is expected to be discussed when the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on Friday and Saturday, per the reports.

The bottom line: "We must ensure that voters of color have a voice in choosing our nominee much earlier in the process and throughout the entire early window," Biden wrote in his letter to the DNC rules panel.

The big picture: The DNC panel voted earlier this year to give other states the chance to hold early primaries.

There's been fierce competition between Democrats in New Hampshire pushing to remain the first-in-the-nation primary and those in Nevada aiming to take over the spot, per Axios' Alexi McCammond.

McCammond noted in July that while the Iowa caucuses had been the first overall contest, that might not last — particularly in light of the debacle in 2020 when technical issues saw results delayed.

What they're saying: Democratic lawmakers in New Hampshire and Nevada pushed back against Biden's proposal.

Nevada Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen implicitly took digs at the South Carolina report in a joint statement raising "serious concerns" at the plan, the New York Times notes.

"We strongly believe the first presidential nominating contest should be held in a competitive, pro-labor state that supports voting access and reflects all of America’s diversity  — in other words, a state that actually aligns with the DNC’s own priorities for updating the calendar," they said.

Meanwhile, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) said in a statement she "strongly" opposed "the president's deeply misguided proposal, but make no mistake, New Hampshire's law is clear, and our primary will continue to be First in the Nation."

Representatives for Biden did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Read President Biden's letter to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee in full, via DocumentCloud:

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

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Biden pushes Democrats for 2024 primary overhaul

South Carolina is set to replace Iowa as the first primary state, per multiple reports.

President Biden at a press conference at the White House on December 01.

President Biden at a press conference at the White House on Thursday. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Elon Musk announced Thursday that Tesla is rolling out its long-awaited all-electric Semi trucks.

The big picture: The first shipment of the Tesla Semi, which was unveiled five years ago, was delivered to PepsiCo's Modesto, California, factory Wednesday, Tesla Semi program manager Dan Priestley said during a livestreamed event at the electric vehicle company's Nevada plant.

"We delivered the truck, they took it over and they brought back a load of snacks for everybody here to enjoy tonight," Priestley added.

Zoom in: "We're incredibly excited tonight to actually deliver our first production Tesla semi trucks," Musk said at the event.

A screenshot of a Tesla tweet on a Semi test drive.

Tesla begins delivering first Semi trucks

The Tesla Semi was unveiled five years ago.

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