Axios
Featured

The Republican base is getting less excited about health care

Senate Republicans have an urgent reason not to give up on repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act: They don't want to break their promise to the GOP base. But the most recent polls suggest the base may not care as much as Republicans think.

The bottom line: A majority still supports the plan, but support has slipped, and there is some evidence that base Trump voters do not view repeal as a top priority — and many may not punish their representatives if they vote no.

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Keep reading ... words

The repeal push is motivated by several factors. Many Republicans in Congress want to undo whatever former President Barack Obama did. Some want to cap Medicaid spending. Others want to deliver a tax cut.

But the chief motivating factor is the desire to deliver on their campaign promise to the base to repeal "Obamacare," despite the problems with the legislation documented so thoroughly by the Congressional Budget Office. So it seems highly relevant to know where the base actually stands on the Republican replacement plan.

Consider these findings from our most recent June Kaiser Tracking Poll:

  • 55% of President Trump's supporters still support the Republican replacement plan, but, as the chart shows, that number is down a notable 14 percentage points from May.
  • Trump supporters still want Trump and Republicans to keep working on a plan to repeal and replace the ACA (75%). But only 8% cite it as the most important priority for them, similar to the share of the public at large.
  • Less than half of Trump supporters — 44% — say they'd be less likely to support a member of Congress who votes against the bill.

Why it matters: Republicans have been single mindedly focused on their base because they know that only the most dedicated slivers of the electorate come out to vote in midterm elections. These data show that Trump voter intensity on the replacement plan has fallen. The polling data are similar if you look at Republican voters overall, rather than Trump voters.

If the intensity continues to fall, it could diminish this expected turnout. At a minimum, it could make repeal a less effective tool to whip up turnout in the base.

What we don't know: The vote, whenever it happens, could significantly affect the base in directions that are difficult to predict. So could the impact of the law itself if it passes. The CBO predicts that premiums and deductibles in the non-group market will begin to rise sharply and quickly, and Trump voters will be among the groups affected.

It is possible, therefore, that the immediate Republican victory lap that would come from passing repeal could end as Trump voters start to pay their health care bills.

Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

Global hack appears aimed to inflict damage, not collect money

Ng Han Guan / AP

The "ransomware" attack that struck Ukraine and has since spread to about 65 countries might not be a regular ransomware attack after all. Instead, its code indicates it is more like a "wiper," according to Matt Suiche, founder of cybersecurity startup Comae Technologies.

What it means: "The goal of a wiper is to destroy and damage. The goal of a ransomware is to make money," Suiche writes. Instead of just encrypting files when it infects a device, this hack encrypts your entire hard drive and the Master Boot Record so that it is totally inoperative, according to Radware. This also causes the whole computer to restart.

Keep reading ... words
  • Microsoft points out that this hack, sometimes called GoldenEye, is a new variant of Petya, which CNET reports has been sold on forums in the dark web since last April.

Why it matters: For one, as CNET's Alfred Ng writes: "Compared with GoldenEye, WannaCry (a ransomware attack in May) looks like it was written by amateurs." Second, Suiche believes the hackers went to the trouble of making it look like ransomware attack to "control the media narrative" to scapegoat an unknown hacking group instead of what it actually might be — a state hacker. (State hackers usually don't use ransomware.)

One big caveat: As Bret Padres, a former intel official and CEO of The Crypsis Group tells Axios, "a just as plausible explanation is that this is a coding error" that makes it look like a wiper and not a simple ransomware hack.

What else we've learned in the last day:

  • The hack hit 65 countries, including Ukraine, Russia, Denmark, Spain, India, Germany, U.K., U.S. and France, according to Microsoft analysis. It is still impacting ATMs in Ukraine and Pennsylvania's Heritage Valley Health System, per NPR.
  • There is no "kill switch" for this hack (there was one for WannaCry).
  • GoldenEye was spread, in part, through Ukrainian tax accounting software, Symantec reports, adding that it's "interesting" that the attack began on a Ukrainian national holiday, Constitution Day.
  • The hackers aren't attempting to attack random IP addresses (as WannaCry did) and instead targeting mostly financial institutions in Ukraine, per Symantec.
  • Motives: Since the hackers set up a poor payment system, the goal appears to be to cause damage rather than to collect ransom (the point of contact was through an email suspended by the host, and there is only one Bitcoin wallet listed to receive money, making the operation appear uncoordinated and weak).

What to watch now: The Bitcoin wallet that the hackers were going to use to receive payments, which law enforcement will be watching, too, to see if the attackers will somehow reveal themselves. Plus, expect hacking to come up during NATO meetings tomorrow in Brussels. Last year NATO decided a cyber hack could trigger its mutual defense protocol, Article Five.

Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

How Medicaid funding would change under the Senate health bill

The Senate health care bill would substantially reduce federal funding for all Medicaid beneficiary groups over the next two decades compared to current law, according to an analysis by Avalere, a health care consulting firm.

Why this matters: The funding cuts could encourage states to cut benefits for enrollees, payments to providers or eligibility for the program. It also saves the federal government $772 billion over 10 years, and likely much more over 20 years.


Data: Avalere Health analysis; Note: Adult age cutoff defined by state, ranging from 19-21. Seniors are 65+; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

What the bill does:

  • Phases out enhanced federal funding for the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion.
  • Caps the amount of federal funding per Medicaid enrollee. This cap grows with medical inflation beginning in 2020, but in 2025 the growth rate slows to inflation, which is tighter and causes most of the steep reductions.
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

Axios Review: New Eero delivers even better Wi-Fi, albeit at a price

Eero

When it debuted a couple years ago, Eero was the first company to aggressively promote the concept of placing multiple networking boxes around the home for better Wi-Fi. Now, as Eero's second-generation product hits the market, the company is far from alone, facing competition from other startups as well as traditional networking companies like Belkin and Netgear.

Who it's good for: Anyone that has pockets of slow wi-fi in their home and doesn't already have a multi-unit system

Who it's not good for: Those whose homes are reasonably well covered, those who already have a mesh network or are particularly cost conscious, since others offer a more affordable alternative.

Keep reading ... words

Our take: I eagerly bought the first Eero system due to poor in-home Wi-Fi coverage in an old San Francisco building. While it improved a bad situation, the Wi-Fi in the back of the house (where our bedroom is located) still left much to be desired. Eero's original system consisted of three identical units, while the new standard $399 system is one main system and two smaller "Eero Beacon" devices.

In testing the second-generation system, I initially tried a mix of three new devices and one older Eero and it actually made things slower. But when I went with just the new Eero-and-two-beacon system I found it delivered a significant speed bump, as measured by the Speedtest app, on the order of about 25% faster downloads.

Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

Waymo: Uber knew about the stolen files

Jeff Chiu / AP

Waymo is pushing back on Uber's defense, arguing in new court documents that the ride-hailing company not only knew that a former Waymo employee had downloaded proprietary files, but that it also set up legal mechanisms to cover that up.

Cover up: Waymo argues that Uber struck a deal with Anthony Levandowski, a former Waymo employee whose startup it was acquiring, that he submit to a due diligence investigation in exchange for indemnification. Uber either knew or suspected that he had stolen files in his possession and set up a legal agreement to protect both parties, says Waymo.

Keep reading ... words

More: Waymo also points to other suspicious events, such as Levandowski's downloading of proprietary files onto a personal device on two occasions, and both on days that he was meeting with Uber executives. It also says it can't find text messages from Uber CEO Travis Kalanick to Levandowski, suggesting they may have been deleted. Uber has not produced all text messages between Levandowski and every witness yet.

Read here Uber's legal defense, also filed on Wednesday.

Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

Senior official contradicts Trump's South Korea stance

Evan Vucci / AP

On the eve of South Korean President Moon Jae-in's meeting with President Trump, a senior White House official told reporters in a background briefing that South Korea is not, in fact, a "laggard" on military burden sharing:

"South Korea in many respects is the model ally because they are spending somewhere in the order of 2.7% of their GDP on their defense. Burden sharing is always going to be part of the conversation with our allies. President Trump has made that clear, but we shouldn't view South Korea as somehow laggard on that front."

Why this matters: The senior White House official is directly contradicting Trump's long-running public statements — where he has frequently condemned South Korea for being a freeloader. This could preface a strategic shift for the administration. During the presidential campaign, Trump told CNN's Wolf Blitzer: "South Korea is a money machine but they pay us peanuts...South Korea should pay us very substantially for protecting them."

Keep reading ... words
  • During Wednesday's briefing — a prelude to Moon's visit to the White House on Thursday, where he'll have cocktails and dinner with Trump — the senior White House official praised South Korea for paying an "enormous amount of money to help host U.S. troops in their country including through things like...the new base, south of Seoul, which 92% of that cost was shouldered by South Korea."

Since taking office, Trump has used far more bellicose rhetoric than his senior advisors — with the prominent exception of Steve Bannon — when it comes to South Korea:

  • Trump upset the South Koreans when he told Reuters in April he expected them to pay for the "billion dollar system," THAAD, to defend against North Korean missiles. Trump's national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, had to clean-up Trump's statement, assuring the South Koreans that "until any re-negotiation that the deal is in place, we will adhere to our word" to pay for the missile defense system.
  • Trump also told Reuters the Korean trade agreement was "a horrible deal, and we are going to renegotiate that deal or terminate it." In Wednesday's briefing the senior White House official used more diplomatic language — saying "I think they will have a friendly and frank discussion about the trade relationship."
  • The official did, however, specify the areas of tension on trade: "He will be, I think, forthright in terms of talking about things like U.S. autos and the fact that there are still some barriers to U.S. auto sales in Korea, certainly the enormous amount of steel that sometimes ends up surplus, Chinese steel that comes to the United States via South Korea."
Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

Mattis, Haley claim White House warning to Syria prevented attack

Jacquelyn Martin and Andrew Harnik / AP

Both Defense Secretary Mattis and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are claiming President Trump's warning to Syria over chemical weapons prevented an attack.

Mattis, while on his way to a NATO meeting in Brussels Wednesday told reporters: "It appears that they took the warning seriously." When asked repeatedly how he knows Syria heeded the warning he said simply, "they didn't do it," three times.

Haley on Capitol Hill Wednesday, via The Guardian: "Due to the president's actions, we did not see an incident…I would like to think that the president saved many innocent men, women and children."

Our thought bubble: Reports on what prompted the White House statement Monday night that Syria was preparing for a possible chemical attack have been vague and at times conflicting. With so little known about the would-be attack, it's hard to assess whether the warning changed the regime's calculus.

Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

The story behind Trump's Medicaid argument

President Trump's rallying behind the Senate GOP's health care bill continued this afternoon as he tweeted that the bill actually increases Medicaid spending rather than cutting it:

Our thought bubble: The Senate bill would cut Medicaid spending by $772 billion over a decade from its levels under the Affordable Care Act. Some Republicans argue, as the the New York Times summed up yesterday, that health care spending under the ACA is dangerously out of control, so the Senate bill doesn't include "cuts," it simply increases Medicaid funding at a more reasonable rate.

Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

McMaster lays out North Korea strategy

Susan Walsh / AP

Trump's National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster laid out the way the U.S. is thinking about the North Korea problem Wednesday in three main points:

  1. "The North Korea problem is not a problem between North Korea and the United States. It's a problem between North Korea and China — and the world."
  2. A positive gain in the last few months has been "Chinese leadership's recognition that China does have a great deal of control over that situation mainly through the powers of the economic…relationship" with North Korea. This seems to diverge from Trump's stance that China has tried to exert influence but fallen short.
  3. "Denuclearization of the peninsula is the only appropriate and acceptable" solution.

Read more from Axios' Expert Voices on what the U.S. can do about North Korea, here.

Keep reading ... words

On NATO: McMaster affirmed Trump is "absolutely committed to" the mutual defense protocol, known as Article Five.

On Afghanistan: McMaster said the Taliban is taking advantage of the disconnect between military action and political action in Afghanistan. He noted the previous approach of saying "let's talk to you about a political solution…but we're leaving" made little sense to him. "How does that work?"

On Russia: McMaster said the U.S. needs more tools to confront Russia's destabilizing behavior towards the U.S., including in cyberspace.

On budget: McMaster dodged a question about USAID and State Department budget cuts.

Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

New laptop inspections coming for U.S.-bound flights

Ted S. Warren / AP

Additional screening will soon be required before personal electronic devices (PEDs) larger than cell phones can be carried on to U.S.-bound flights, senior Department of Homeland Security officials announced Wednesday. The TSA and the State Department will also be involved in implementation.

The need for more security comes from the fact that terrorists continue to look at attacking commercial airlines as the "crown jewel," and are exploring new ways to conceal devices, DHS Secretary John Kelly said at the CNAS conference.

Why it matters: This move could have major commercial implications, but Kelly is pressing ahead because he places aviation in general, and the ability of terrorists to turn laptops into explosive devices in particular, at the top of his list of security concerns.

Keep reading ... words

What to expect: As one senior DHS official put it, "if the PEDs [larger than a cellphone] are screened, they can fly. If they are not screened, they cannot fly." The officials would not discuss what the enhanced screenings will look like exactly, but added that DHS is calling for the use of next generation screening methods as well as K-9 assets. DHS is encouraging more airports to become pre-screening locations, which allows passengers to go through Customs and border security before boarding flights to the U.S., Kelly said.

If airline carriers choose to not implement these changes, the U.S. could suspend their flights to the U.S. and could not allow PEDs larger than cell phones on board at all. One DHS official said he believes every airport in the world would be able to implement these changes, however. The changes will affect 238 airports, 105 countries, and, on average, 2,000 flights per day.

Timeline: The DHS officials briefing reporters were vague about the implementation due to security reasons, noting the changes "could roll out this summer, absolutely." They ultimately claimed it was up to the airline carriers to get the changes implemented and that TSA and DHS officials stand ready to inspect the changes to approve the airlines' protocols.

The existing ban: The 10 airports in the Middle East that are already subject to a laptop ban can have those restrictions lifted if they comply with these new security measures. One DHS official clarified, "we're not rolling back those measures," but this gives those airports the opportunity to increase their security. (Those airports affected: Amman, Kuwait City, Cairo, Istanbul, Jeddah, Riyadh, Casablanca, Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi.)

Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

Trump's latest social media salvo against "fake news"

Alex Brandon / AP

President Trump has shared videos on his official Instagram account from Project Veritas, the controversial right-wing outlet known for its deceptively-edited videos, that purport to show CNN figures — including contributor Van Jones — dismissing the federal government's Russia investigation. Trump captioned the videos, "CNN is fake news."

Sarah Huckabee Sanders yesterday: "There's a video out there circulating right now — whether it's accurate or not, I don't know — but I would encourage everybody in this room, and frankly, everybody across the country to take a look at it."

Note of caution: Per the Washington Post, Project Veritas is known for utilizing practices considered unethical in mainstream journalism, including using false identities and deceptive editing. For example, one video features a CNN producer saying there is "no smoking gun" in the Russia investigation but fails to note that he produces health and medical stories for the network — and is based in Atlanta, away from the epicenters of CNN's politics coverage in Washington and New York.

Check out Trump's Instagrams.
Show less
Link copied to clipboard.
Featured

Senate Intel cuts a deal for the Comey memos

Andrew Harnik / AP

The Senate Intelligence Committee has reached an agreement to obtain the memos James Comey wrote after interactions with President Trump, chairman Richard Burr said Wednesday. Per Politico:

  • "I've got a commitment," Burr said when asked whether his panel would get access to the documents. Asked who gave him that commitment, the senator responded: "I'm not going to tell you."
  • Burr said he expected to obtain the memos sooner rather than later, saying, "it does us no good later."
  • Flashback: Comey testified before the committee about the contents of the memos, one of which details Trump's alleged pressure over the investigation into Michael Flynn, which House investigators have also sought without success.
Link copied to clipboard.

Trending

Axios in your Inbox

Latest Newsletters

Follow Axios