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Sanctions drive Russia to first foreign debt default since 1918

Russia

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Rudy Giuliani slapped on back inside New York grocery store

Rudy Giuliani

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Matthew McConaughey: Gun bill "a shining example" of compromise

Gun control

Arkansas Gov. Hutchinson laments lack of exceptions for rape, incest in abortion ban

Abortion

Erin Hawley's win in court

Roe v. Wade

McCarthy's coming headaches

House Republicans

Funeral held for British journalist killed in Brazil

Brazil

AOC questions if Dems who oppose abortion rights should still serve

Axios Sneak Peek

Far-right candidates are surging in House races across the map: Republican leaders increasingly fear that a red wave will wash in a raft of conspiracy theorists and extremists.

Why it matters: The establishment grows ever weaker. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — on the doorstep of the speaker’s office — can expect to be saddled with new members who have zero loyalty or predictability.

What's happening: Many of the GOP candidates expected to cause leadership headaches are backed by former President Trump, whose grip on McCarthy is as strong as ever.

They play well with Trump's MAGA base and are running in incredibly conservative districts. 

Several, like Loren Culp and Joe Kent in Washington, have made no secret of their disdain for McCarthy and GOP leadership overall.

What we're hearing: In cycles past, leadership has attempted to get involved in some races to stiff-arm candidates they find problematic.

But this time, House GOP leadership is highly sensitive to the political downsides of interfering: Republicans need these candidates to take back the majority and make McCarthy speaker.

McCarthy has been careful not to alienate them, hoping his hands-off approach will help earn their trust and foster goodwill down the line.

Yes, but: Once in office, it will be hard for McCarthy to control his far-right freshmen — just as he's faced difficulty wrangling Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), who see themselves as "untouchable."

Greene, for example, has long gloated she's immune to punishment by McCarthy. That's been true even after she and Gosar appeared at a gathering of white nationalists hosted by outspoken Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes.

What to watch: The number of seats Republicans ultimately win in November will be crucial to this dynamic.

That margin, in conjunction with the number of these controversial candidates who win in the general election, will determine how much influence they have over the Republican conference.

Republicans already have a nightmarish job whipping votes for certain legislation because of the House Freedom Caucus — which is experiencing its own identity crisis over the increasing radicalization of its members.

These new candidates could complicate that dynamic further.

What they're saying: "If you look at our history with the Freedom Caucus, they don't back down and don't vote for things. So our margins will be really important," a House GOP leadership aide told Axios.

"Biden's going to be president no matter what. ... There are going to be times when we need to pass government funding, NDAA and so on," the aide added. "Kevin's going to be in the position of having to cut deals with Biden and that's not going to go well with some of these people."

McCarthy's office did not respond to requests for comment.

Carl Paladino at Trump Tower in 2016. Photo: Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

A sampling of the controversial candidates flagged to Axios by Republican campaign arms and GOP strategists includes: 

1. Carl Paladino (N.Y.-26): Backed by House GOP conference chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Paladino's history of controversy includes calling Adolf Hitler "the kind of leader we need" in 2021.

In 2016, he inadvertently emailed a Buffalo newspaper racist and sexist comments about former first lady Michelle Obama.

2. Sandy Smith (N.C.-1): Smith, who won her May 17 primary, tweeted she was present for the "Save America" rally immediately prior to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

She's also been accused of attacking her former husbands, including with a car and a frying pan. Smith denies those allegations.

3. Loren Culp (Wash.-4): A former small-town police chief, Trump-endorsed Culp lost the 2020 Washington governor's race to Democrat Jay Inslee but refused to concede.

He called earlier this year for a Black man facing trial to be lynched and the jurors and judge to be executed in a firing squad.

He has also "maintained associations with some controversial far-right organizations," including a group that "has sent armed civilians to act as self-appointed, pro-law-enforcement 'peacekeepers' at protests against police brutality, according to AP.

4. Joe Kent (Wash.-3): The Trump-backed candidate has come under fire for claiming he worked with Nick Fuentes, who gained notoriety for participating in the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, on social media strategy.

Kent has since distanced himself from Fuentes and told Oregon Public Broadcasting that the controversy was a misunderstanding.

Between the lines: Rather than taking a completely hands-off approach, McCarthy has openly embraced certain controversial candidates.

J.R. Majewski (Ohio-9), who has repeatedly promoted QAnon and attended the Jan. 6 rally in Washington, was named this month to the National Republican Congressional Committee's "Young Gun" program.

From July 2020 to January 2021, Majewski tweeted the QAnon hashtag #WWG1WGA — which stands for "Where we go one, we go all" — more than 50 times on his now-deleted personal Twitter account, according to CNN.

Majewski has since tried to distance himself from QAnon and claims he never supported the conspiracy.

Mayra Flores (Texas-34), another candidate supported by Trump, was hosted by the House GOP at the Capitol after flipping the seat to replace departing Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela this month.

Flores has repeatedly posted the #QAnon and #Q hashtags on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook, according to a report by watchdog Media Matters, but now says she never supported the theory. 

These candidates are quietly being described as "political disrupters" among House GOP leadership and outside campaign arms.

Photo illustration of Kevin McCarthy holding his head beneath an angry elephant

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Axios Finish Line

Fifty-nine percent of Americans disapprove of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and take away the federal protections of abortion rights, according to a new CBS News/YouGov reaction poll. Among women polled, 67% disapprove.

Why it matters: The new polling upholds what surveys before the decision showed us — that the majority of Americans support Roe.

52% call the court's decision a "step backward" for America, 31% say it's a "step forward," and 17% say neither.

Between the lines: Opinion is starkly divided along party lines. 78% of Republicans approve of the decision, compared with 38% of independents and 17% of Democrats.

What to watch: The public believes the court will reexamine other civil rights set by precedent.

57% think it's likely same-sex marriage rights will be limited, and 55% think access to birth control will be limited.

Where abortion access is guaranteed without Roe v. Wade

Democrats condemn Supreme Court's abortion ruling

Where abortion will be illegal with Roe v. Wade overturned

Poll: Majority of Americans disapprove of overturning Roe v. Wade

Opinion is starkly divided along party lines.

Outside the Supreme Court. Photo: Probal Rashid/LightRocket via Getty Images

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Axios Pro Rata

Russia is set to default on its foreign-currency sovereign debt after bond holders reported the Kremlin missed two payments late Sunday, per the Wall Street Journal.

Why it matters: This is the foreseeable outcome of sanctions imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine, even though Russia had successfully pushed off the inevitable for months. For now, the default is mostly notable for its symbolism as Russia's first foreign debt default since 1918, reflecting the country's international pariah status and crumbling economy.

Our thought bubble, via Axios' Felix Salmon: Bond defaults normally happen because the issuer doesn't want to make the payment. In this case, Russia was clearly willing to do so; it just wasn't able to. 

Flashback: Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree last week to for a temporary measure giving the government 10 days to pick banks to handle payments under a new scheme, indicating Russia will regard its debt obligations fulfilled by paying bondholders in roubles, Reuters reports.

What to watch: Although the deadline passed for Russian officials to meet a 30-day grace period on interest payments that were originally due on May 27, it could be a while before a default is confirmed, AP notes.

Russia had successfully pushed off the inevitable for months, as its economy crumbles.

Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the XIV BRICS summit in virtual format via a video call, in Moscow, on June 23.

Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the XIV BRICS summit in virtual format via a video call, in Moscow, on June 23, 2022. (Photo by Mikhail Metzel / SPUTNIK / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

AOC says impeachment possible if Supreme Court justices lied under oath

Lindsey Graham downplays likelihood of court action on gay marriage and contraception

Rep. Mary Miller: Overturning Roe v. Wade is a "victory for white life"

Warren calls for Supreme Court expansion after Roe overturned

Abortions are now illegal in 7 states but more bans are coming

Massachusetts, Minnesota become safe havens for abortion

Planned Parenthood sues Utah over "trigger law" abortion ban

Protests break out across U.S. after Roe v. Wade is struck down

Abortion rights leaders focus on November after Roe decision

Abortion clinics across the country close after Roe v. Wade ruling

California, Washington and Oregon launch "West Coast offense" to protect abortion rights

Fall of Roe will have immediate economic ramifications, experts say

Abortion pill online orders expected to grow post Roe

Abortion pills become central issue after SCOTUS ruling

Attorney General Garland: States can't ban FDA-approved abortion pills on safety grounds

Trump credits himself for abortion ruling

Pence draws contrast with Trump on abortion decision

GOP eyes federal abortion restrictions after Dobbs

Data: Axios research; Cartogram: Sara Wise and Oriana Gonzalez/Axios

Abortion will immediately become illegal in at least 13 states after the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and more will likely quickly follow suit, Axios' Oriana Gonzalez reports.

Why it matters: The Supreme Court's Friday ruling grants states the legal authority to ban the procedure at any point in a pregnancy — including at fertilization.

"The Constitution does not confer a right to abortion; Roe and Casey are overruled; and the authority to regulate abortion is returned to the people and their elected representatives," Justice Samuel Alito wrote in the 6-3 ruling.

The Supreme Court issued a 6-3 ruling on June 24.

Alito wrote the court's opinion. Joining him were Justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.

Chief Justice John Roberts voted with the majority but indicated he would've stopped short of fully overturning Roe.

The court's three liberal members — Justices Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan — dissented.

Dashboard: The latest on Roe v. Wade and abortion

Abortion-rights activist react after the announcement to the Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling in front of the U.S. Supreme Court

Abortion rights activists protest outside the Supreme Court. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Axios Explains: Abortion

The Supreme Court "set a torch" to its legitimacy with its decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, warranting an expansion of the number of supreme court justices, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.

Why it matters: A majority of Americans disapprove of the court's decision to effectively end all federal protections on abortion.

At least 26 Republican-led states in total are expected to ban abortions or heavily restrict access to them in the wake of the ruling, according to the Guttmacher Institute, an abortion-rights organization.

What they're saying: "This court has lost legitimacy. They have burned whatever legitimacy they still may have had after their gun decision, after their voting decision, after their union decision," Warren said.

"They just took the last of it and set a torch to it with the Roe v. Wade opinion," she added.

"I believe we need to get some confidence back in our court and that means we need more justices on the United States Supreme Court." 

Warren also said that she was "deeply concerned" about Justice Clarence Thomas' suggestion in his concurring opinion to the Roe v. Wade ruling that the Supreme Court should reconsider opinions protecting same-sex relationships, marriage equality and access to contraceptives.

"We need to get some confidence back in our court...we need more justices on the United States supreme court."

Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, early on Sunday, striking at least two residential buildings, AP reports.

Driving the news: It was the first strike on the capital since June 5, and took place as Russian troops consolidated gains in the east.

The attack on Kyiv also came as G7 leaders gathered in Germany for a summit largely focused on the war in Ukraine.

State of play: Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said four people were hospitalized with injuries, and a 7-year-old girl was pulled alive from the rubble, AP reports.

Culture Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said in a Telegram post that a kindergarten was hit in the attacks.

AP journalists in Kyiv reported rescue services were battling flames and rescuing civilians.

What they are saying: The United States ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, tweeted on Sunday that she was "appalled" by the attack.

"As the Kremlin continues its indiscriminate attacks on [Ukraine] civilians, [the U.S.] & our partners will pursue every avenue to ensure those responsible for atrocities are held accountable."

The big picture: The strike came on the same day President Biden said the United States and other G7 leaders are set to announce a ban on imports of gold from Russia. They hope that measure will further isolate Russia economically over its invasion of Ukraine.

Go deeper: 100 days that rocked the globe

Russia strikes Kyiv for first time in three weeks

The strikes came as G7 leaders gathered in Germany for a summit largely focused on the war in Ukraine.

Water fills a crater created by Russian missiles at a nursery school in Kyiv on June 26. Photo: Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine

Axios Media Trends

Google search data shows Americans — particularly those in states most impacted by the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade —are scrambling to figure out where they can still get abortions and what the law means for future access.

Why it matters: Americans are trying to wrap their heads around what this means for the future of women's health.

On searches related to abortion, the top queries included, "is abortion illegal," "abortion ban states" and "abortion pill."

Those most actively searching were in political battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire — where there are no existing laws that would immediately ban or codify abortion rights, as well red states Missouri, Kentucky and Utah, where a trigger law has banned the procedure.

Top searches about the Supreme Court centered on which justices voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.

This analysis is based on Google Trends data from Friday and Saturday.

Between the lines: Searches for "abortion clinic near me" over-indexed in the Southeast, where a number of states had trigger laws on the books.

The top five states include Mississippi and Louisiana, where there were trigger laws in place, and Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina where there are not.

Searches for 'abortion pill' were highest in red states — Wyoming and Montana in the Mountain West were the top two, followed by Southeast states Louisiana, Georgia, Missouri and Arkansas.

The other side: Searches for "Planned Parenthood near me" were highest among blue states: Delaware, California, Oregon, Washington and New Jersey were the top-searching states in the aftermath of the ruling.

Overall search interest in abortion peaked at 10:56am ET on Friday, about 45 minutes after the decision was released.

What Americans are searching after Roe v. Wade reversal

The top searches for 'abortion clinic near me' were in the Southeast.

This morning, the Supreme Court issued a ruling overturning Roe v. Wade.

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McCarthy's coming headaches

Poll: Majority of Americans disapprove of overturning Roe v. Wade

Sanctions drive Russia to first foreign debt default since 1918

Dashboard: The latest on Roe v. Wade and abortion

Warren calls for Supreme Court expansion after Roe overturned

Russia strikes Kyiv for first time in three weeks

What Americans are searching after Roe v. Wade reversal

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McCarthy's coming headaches

1 🎧 thing

Poll: Majority of Americans disapprove of overturning Roe v. Wade

Sanctions drive Russia to first foreign debt default since 1918

Dashboard: The latest on Roe v. Wade and abortion

Warren calls for Supreme Court expansion after Roe overturned

Russia strikes Kyiv for first time in three weeks

What Americans are searching after Roe v. Wade reversal