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"We don't have to worry about the f---ing monkeypox, do we?"

Al Gore, overheard in the Davos conference center

At the first annual meeting since the pandemic brought the global economy to its knees, COVID-19 was largely ignored as a clear and present risk to the assembled delegates and hangers-on. 

Delegates trusted that their mRNA boosters and the testing protocols would protect them, along with modern therapeutics, should they end up catching the virus.

The backstory: The World Economic Forum doesn't have the best track record when it comes to gauging the risks of pandemics.

COVID-19 was a distant concern at the 2020 meeting, which might itself have been a superspreader event. The pandemic was then responsible for the cancellation of two successive scheduled meetings.

The big picture: The main venue for the annual meetings is a warren-like and largely windowless conference center, divvied up into small, airless rooms.

Dozens of delegates would file into such spaces for panels, press conferences, and the like — and almost none of them were wearing masks.

The Davos nightlife similarly picked up where it left off pre-pandemic, with loud and crowded venues, free-flowing alcohol, and people shouting to be heard over the din.

At such events, masks were worn only by servers. Any delegates with COVID worries didn't even bother showing up. 

People who were tested at the center ended up mixing with other people in Davos who hadn't been tested, then returned to the center where few people wore masks.

The bottom line: Some of Davos's biggest parties were canceled, but others replaced them. The Chainsmokers, for instance, performed at a tiny, packed bar on Wednesday night. 

It's therefore an open question as to whether Davos 2022 will turn out to be a superspreader event.

Davos ignores the pandemic

Delegates were broadly complacent when it came to COVID.

Illustration of a covid particle under a pattern if international currency shaped like concentric circles and a no-sign over the particle.

Deep Dive - Davos 2022

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Wherever the world's attention might be focused right now, it's not Davos, Switzerland.

Driving the news: When a major new trade pact was announced on Monday — encompassing 13 countries including the U.S., Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia — it was at a summit in Tokyo, 6,000 miles from Davos.

Heads of state including President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gathered there to discuss supply chains, pandemics, and the war in Ukraine. 

In Davos, the U.S. delegation was threadbare, with the highest-profile attendee being Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Never mind Biden being absent; there was no Kamala Harris, no Janet Yellen, no Jerome Powell. 

Even private-sector regulars like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon decided to sit this Davos out. 

Context: Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum, rode the jet stream of globalization for decades, creating an annual alpine conclave designed to drive a truly global agenda.

This year, Omicron pushed the meeting back by four months and slashed the number of Chinese delegates attending. Then, Putin invaded Ukraine. 

Overnight, Russians went from being Davos's most generous delegates — perennial providers of conviviality and caviar — to being the undisputed common enemy.

The big picture: During major global upheavals, Davos delegates have a tendency to become slack-jawed onlookers rather than geopolitical power brokers. 

During the Arab Spring, they gathered impotently around TV screens; this year, they dutifully filed into a cavernous hall to give a standing ovation to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, a man who has survived multiple Russian assassination attempts. 

The bottom line: Switzerland, proudly neutral for 500 years, lends itself well to creating and strengthening international ties of commerce, friendship, and familiarity. (The first time I came to Davos, I had a fascinating half-hour conversation with an Iranian ayatollah.)

In an era of everyone picking sides, however, Davos has much less to offer.

Diminished Davos

A threadbare U.S. delegation and a major new trade pact announced in Tokyo, 6,000 miles away.

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Ukraine dominated many of the panel discussions, speeches from world leaders, and even the evening entertainment in Davos. 

And no one set the tone more than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who didn't step foot in Davos but was easily the star of the show. 

Zelensky appeared via videolink for an Axios interview and opened the forum with an impassioned address. Even with a slimmed-down crowd in Davos this year, we'd never seen the hall so full.

A dozens-strong Ukrainian contingent did travel to Davos to lobby for more weapons, seek investment to rebuild the country and urge the VIP audience not to look away. 

Tuesday night's offerings included a concert for Ukraine, with Yo-Yo Ma performing, and a dinner for Ukraine, hosted by Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk. 

Yo-Yo Ma and Emanuel Ax perform at a Ukraine solidarity concert in Davos

Yo-Yo Ma performs at a Ukraine solidarity concert in Davos

Cellist Yo-Yo Ma and classical pianist Emanuel Ax perform at a Ukraine solidarity concert in Davos. Photos: Ina Fried/Axios

The dinner quickly turned somber as several Ukrainian attendees were introduced, including the mayor of Bucha, the Kyiv suburb that has become synonymous with mass graves, and a doctor from Mariupol, where thousands of civilians have died and a maternity hospital was bombed.

After the mayor of Russian-occupied Melitopol rose to speak, another Ukrainian attendee unveiled a battle-damaged flag from "our boys on the front lines." Everyone rose for an impromptu rendition of the national anthem.

It was not a normal Davos dinner. But with a full-scale war raging on the European continent, it was not a normal Davos. 

Axios Twitter video on how Ukraine shaped Davos

Watch Zelensky's full interview with Jonathan Swan

Ukraine dominates Davos

It was the theme of many of the panel discussions, speeches from world leaders, and even the evening entertainment.

Photo illustration of Ukainian President Volodymyr Zelensky surrounded by circles of worldcurrency 

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo by Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

The premise of the World Economic Forum is that if you bring powerful people together across borders, they can solve some of the world's thorniest problems.

But if this year's forum is any indication, the biggest geopolitical players can't even gather in the same room anymore.

The big picture: The world is splitting into opposing camps, and the "globalist elite" — as Davos attendees are often described — are not immune.  

At Davoses past, Russian oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska threw lavish parties and vodka flowed at the Russia House, centrally located on the Promenade.

This year, Russian companies were banned, Deripaska is sanctioned, and the Russia House was converted into the Russian War Crimes House.

Chinese participants had taken on increasingly prominent roles at recent forums, but there was little Chinese participation this year, due in part to the onerous COVID restrictions on travel to and from China. 

The buzz: With the autocratic powers absent, Davos felt like a trans-Atlantic lovefest. Panel topics included "European unity" and "the resurgence of the West." 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine dominated those discussions and most others around the forum.

"Nothing binds you more than a common adversary," says Samir Saran, president of Observer Research Foundation, a think tank based in Delhi. "Lo and behold, you have that, and you have this renaissance in the Atlantic order, which was flailing in some sense."

"We've had this holiday from history for 30 years, right? And Davos has been very much a part of that," former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb tells Axios, referring to the post-Cold War decades in Europe in which walls came down and war seemed distant.

The forum's idealism about power and globalization can feel like a relic of a time when supply chains were expanding, the connective force of the internet felt boundless, and the U.S.-led liberal order stood preeminent.

"The things that were supposed to bring us together are actually driving us apart at the moment, because everything can be weaponized," Stubb says.

But if the world is again breaking down into blocs, many countries remain non-aligned.

On one panel otherwise dominated by hawkish appeals for arms and sanctions from U.S. and Ukrainian participants, Bangladeshi State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shahriar Alam raised the grain shortages and political instability the war was unleashing in South Asia. "We want it to end, right away," he said. 

Like Bangladesh, India has called for an end to the war without condemning Russia for launching it. Most of the world is not willing to simply line up with the West against Russia, let alone China.

What to watch: While Russia is out of the Davos club, China — given its massive market and geopolitical weight — is still being cautiously courted, including by western officials and executives.

"Decoupling [from China] is totally unrealistic," an executive at a global tech giant confided over coffee at one of the ubiquitous pop-up pavilions on the forum's periphery. "We're all caught between China and the U.S. government."

Before U.S. climate envoy John Kerry appeared alongside his Chinese counterpart — the only time officials from the two superpowers shared a stage — Axios overheard him discussing how to handle it with his team: "Do I say I'm happy to be here with my friend?"

Kerry did use that word in the end, before noting "the serious disagreements between our countries."

Cold War Davos

The world is splitting into opposing camps, and Davos is not immune.

Illustration of two businesspeople back to back in the center of concentric circles made out of international currency. 

Good afternoon, and welcome to our deep dive from Davos, Switzerland, where Team Axios — Dave Lawler, Felix Salmon, Ina Fried, and Axios publisher Nicholas Johnston — covered the World Economic Forum's annual meeting of heads of state, CEOs, activists and celebrities.

Axios AM Deep Dive: Cold War Davos

This year's gathering focused on Ukraine — and ignored COVID.

 Illustrated collage of a handshake surrounded by rectangles made from international currency.

Russian invasion of Ukraine, as of April 8

The Institute for the Study of War with AEI’s Critical Threats Project; Map: Axios Visuals

The crisis in eastern Ukraine escalated drastically on Feb. 21 when Putin recognized two pro-Russian separatist "republics" and sent Russian "peacekeepers" to the territories.

Ukraine has been battling Russian-backed separatists in the east since 2014, when Russia also occupied and annexed the Crimean Peninsula. U.S. officials began warning in November that Putin could be planning another incursion, possibly to topple the pro-Western government in Kyiv.

The U.S. and its European allies had met with Russian officials in a variety of settings to try to build a diplomatic off-ramp, while also warning that an invasion could be imminent.

Russia had issued a series of demands, including a legal guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. At the same time, Putin amassed more than 150,000 troops along Ukraine's borders and conducted unprecedented military drills — preparing the option to take military action if Russia didn't secure the concessions it was seeking.

What counts as a war crime and why they're so hard to prosecute

Why Ukraine wants a no-fly zone — but is unlikely to get one

The "kamikaze" drones the U.S. is giving to Ukraine

What Russia's war in Ukraine means for global economic growth

What global companies are abandoning Russia, and why

Divesting from Russia is easier said than done

How Russia's invasion of Ukraine is changing air travel

What to know about Ukraine's wartime president

Here are the Russian oligarchs speaking out against invading Ukraine

Why gas prices are so high and what Biden can do about it

Dashboard: Russian invasion of Ukraine

A man walks in front of a destroyed school in the city of Bakhmut, in the Ukranian region of Donbas, on May 28. Photo: Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Independent legal scholars and human rights experts in a report Friday accused Russia of inciting genocide and perpetrating atrocities that reveal an "intent to destroy the Ukrainian national group."

Driving the news: There is "a very serious risk of genocide" and states have a legal obligation to prevent it, warned the the report signed by more than 30 experts and  published by the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy and the Montreal-based Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights.

Under the 1948 Genocide Convention, genocide is defined as "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group."

Acts of genocide to those groups include killings, serious bodily or mental harm, measures to prevent births, and forcible transfer of children from one group to another.

Friday's report said that a "genocidal pattern of destruction targeting Ukrainians" has been established in Ukraine, citing mass killings, deliberate attacks on shelters, evacuations routes and humanitarian corridors, the destruction of vital infrastructure, including health care, reports of sexual violence, and the forcible transfer of Ukrainians, including thousands of children to Russia.

The report also said that there are "reasonable grounds to conclude" Russia is responsible for "direct and public incitement to commit genocide."

It cited high-ranking Russian officials and state media commentators denying the existence of a Ukrainian identity, justifying atrocities through propaganda that dehumanizes Ukrainians and Russian authorities denying atrocities committed by its forces in Ukraine and rewarding soldiers suspected of mass killings in the country.

“The purveyors of incitement propaganda are all highly influential political, religious and State-run media figures, including President Putin,” the report said. “There is mounting evidence that Russian soldiers have internalized and are responding to the State propaganda campaign by echoing its content while committing atrocities.”

The big picture: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly accused Russia of carrying out genocide, pointing to atrocities committed in Ukrainian cities like Bucha and Mariupol, and mostly recently during Russia's military offensive in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. 

The UN said Friday that more than 4,000 civilians, including over 260 children, have been killed since Russia began its invasion on Feb. 23, though it stressed the actual figure is likely considerably higher. Russia has repeatedly denied it targets civilians, despite evidence contradicting those claims. 

President Biden first used the term "genocide" last month, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin is "trying to wipe out even the idea of being Ukrainian." But other leaders have been more reluctant to label Russia's actions in Ukraine as "genocide."

The International Criminal Court, which can bring about war crimes and genocide charges, announced earlier this month it had sent 42 experts to Ukraine — its "largest ever" single field deployment — to investigate alleged war crimes.

The bottom line: "We understand there is a reluctance to invoke the Genocide Convention ... but in this instance, the pervasive and systematic atrocities targeting Ukrainians mandate these determinations and the responsibility to act," Irwin Cotler, international chair of the Raoul Wallenberg Centre, said in the afterword of Friday's report.

How genocide is defined and what it could mean for Russia and Ukraine

In photos: Ukraine after 90 days of Russian military attacks

The report warns that there is "a serious risk of genocide" occurring in Ukraine.

A fireman helping extinguish a fire in a factory in Bakhmut, Ukraine, struck by artillery on May 27.

A fireman helping extinguish a fire in a factory in Bakhmut, Ukraine, struck by artillery on May 27. Photo: Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. Army awarded Raytheon Technologies a $624 million contract to produce 1,300 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to replenish its stock after sending around 1,400   of the missile systems to Ukraine in response to Russia's unprovoked invasion.

Why it matters: U.S. lawmakers voiced concerns in April that the diversion of Stinger and Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine could leave the U.S. militarily vulnerable and called on President Biden to replenish supplies.

U.S. allies, such as Germany, also sent Stinger systems to Ukraine to help thwart Russian air assaults throughout the invasion.

The big picture: Raytheon said in a release Friday that the contract is being funded through the $40 billion military and humanitarian aid package that Congress passed for Ukraine earlier this month.

Greg Hayes, chief executive of Raytheon said during an earnings call in April that increasing the production of these missiles "is going to take us a little bit of time."

The company said Friday that the contract includes "provisions for engineering support, as well as the test equipment and support needed to address obsolescence, modernize key components, and accelerate production."

Go deeper: The latest on Russia's invasion of Ukraine 

Raytheon Technologies has been contracted to produce around 1,300 anti-aircraft missiles.

A U.S. Army staff sergeant handling a Stinger missile system in Washington, D.C., in 2005.

A U.S. Army staff sergeant handling a Stinger missile system in Washington, D.C., in 2005. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Ukraine

Leaders of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine declared independence from the Russian Orthodox Church over its support of the Kremlin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, according to a statement on the Ukrainian church's Facebook page on Friday.

Why it matter: Patriarch Kirill I, the leader of Russia's Orthodox Church, has repeatedly publicly supported the war, even though he is the spiritual leader of Orthodox churches in both countries, according to the New York Times.

The Council of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church breaking away represents a major schism, though it is unclear how many Ukrainian bishops and parishes will follow the leaders of the church.

The big picture: Earlier this month, Pope Francis criticized Kirill for his support for the invasion, telling him to not "transform himself into Putin's altar boy."

"Brother, we are not state clerics, we cannot use the language of politics but that of Jesus. We are pastors of the same holy people of God. Because of this, we must seek avenues of peace, to put an end to the firing of weapons," Francis said.

Kirill was also heavily criticized by the World Council of Churches in April for not supporting an Easter ceasefire for the conflict. 

Go deeper: The latest on Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Orthodox Church of Ukraine breaks with Moscow over invasion

The break represents a major schism within the church.

Metropolitan Epiphanius I (right), head of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, with other priests in Rivne, Ukraine, in 2019.

Metropolitan Epiphanius I (right), head of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, with other priests in Rivne, Ukraine, in 2019. Photo: Celestino Arce/NurPhoto via Getty Images 

Health: Long COVID cures may need to go beyond vaccines — Big cities saw population declines during pandemic — Rhode Island to open first federally backed COVID site providing anti-viral pills.

Vaccines: Sweden recommends 5th shot for people at risk of severe COVID — Pfizer says COVID vaccine more than 80% effective in kids under 5.

Politics: Federal judge blocks Biden from ending COVID border policy — Fauci says he won’t stay if Trump is re-elected — Biden orders flags at half-staff for 1 million deaths.

Economy: Health brands' reputations rise after pandemic

Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET on Friday: 528,295,934 — Total deaths: 6,286,083 — Total vaccine doses administered: 11,380,282,696.

U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET on Friday: 83,969,313 — Total deaths: 1,004,692.

What should I do? Axios asked the experts:

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Answers about the virus from Axios experts

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Editor's note: Johns Hopkins University stopped reporting U.S. COVID-19 recoveries on its dashboard on Dec. 15, citing a Coronavirus Tracking Project post that explained the national data is incomplete since several states do not keep records of recovered patients. It stopped reporting global recoveries and began reporting doses administered in May. 

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