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China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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The U.S. on Saturday shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon off the South Carolina coast, the Department of Defense announced.

The big picture: The balloon, which the Pentagon accused China of using to collect information on U.S. military sites, has heightened tensions between the two nations.

Driving the news: The balloon was downed by an American fighter aircraft above U.S. territorial waters, per the DOD.

President Biden had given his authorization Wednesday — a day before news of the balloon was made public —  to take down the surveillance balloon "as soon as the mission could be accomplished without undue risk to American lives under the balloon’s path," the department said.

U.S. military commanders determined that doing so over land posed a risk and so they developed plans to take it down once the balloon was over water.  

The procedure was done in coordination and with the support of the Canadian government, the DOD said. 

Efforts to recover the remnants from the Atlantic Ocean were underway.

The Federal Aviation Administration issued an airspace closure around 12:45 p.m. EST in parts of North Carolina and South Carolina, pausing departures and arrivals from the Wilmington, Myrtle Beach International and Charleston International airports in order "support the Department of Defense in a national security effort."

The airspace and airports reopened around 3:30 p.m. EST, per the FAA.

What they're saying: "Today’s deliberate and lawful action demonstrates that President Biden and his national security team will always put the safety and security of the American people first while responding effectively to the PRC’s unacceptable violation of our sovereignty," the Defense Department said.

Biden told reports Saturday after the balloon was downed: "I ordered the Pentagon on Wednesday to shoot it down," adding that the Pentagon opted to wait until it was over the water.

When asked by a reporter earlier Saturday if there were plans to shoot down the balloon, Biden said in his first public comment about it, "We're going to take care of it."

Thought bubble via Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian: Chinese President Xi Jinping has recently softened his tone towards western nations, hoping for a thaw in relations as he grapples with major domestic challenges. 

But sending a spy balloon directly over the heads of the American populace has accomplished the opposite, greatly raising the sense of a direct Chinese threat to the American homeland.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Chinese balloon shot down over Atlantic Ocean by U.S.

When asked by a reporter if there were plans to shoot down the balloon, President Biden said, "We're going to take care of it."

A Chinese high-altitude balloon balloon flies above Charlotte, North Carolina on Feb. 4. Photo: Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Politics & Policy

The U.S. shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon off the South Carolina coast Saturday that it had been tracking this week.

The latest: The balloon was downed by an American fighter aircraft above the Atlantic Ocean with President Biden's authorization.

U.S. military commanders developed plans to take the balloon down over water to minimize risk, the Department of Defense said in a statement.

The remnants of the balloon are to be taken to an FBI lab in Virginia, for analysis, CNN reports.

The mission was carried out in coordination and with the support of the Canadian government, the DOD said. The balloon had entered Canadian airspace in the Northwest Territories on Jan. 30 before crossing back over into the U.S. on Feb. 1, per AP.

Canada "strongly supports" the U.S. decision to shoot down the balloon, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on social media Saturday, adding that "we’ll keep working together ... on our security and defence." 

Catch up quick: The Federal Aviation Administration on Saturday issued an airspace closure and paused departures and arrivals from the Wilmington, Myrtle Beach International and Charleston International airports for about three hours to "support the Department of Defense in a national security effort." 

An operation was underway to recover debris from the balloon, AP reports, which was estimated to be about the size of three school buses. 

The Pentagon has accused China of using the balloon to collect information on sensitive military sites, which China denies.

When announcing the balloon's existence Thursday, the Pentagon said it does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground.

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday that the balloon was well above the range of civilian air traffic, at about 60,000 feet, and is being closely monitored by the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

In terms of size, Ryder said it was large enough to "cause damage from the debris field if we downed it over an area."

The Pentagon said "we know exactly where this balloon is, exactly what it is passing over." On Friday, Ryder said it continued to move eastward and that it was over the center of the continental U.S. at the time.

U.S. officials initially decided against shooting the airship down over safety concerns.

The Pentagon said Friday night that a second Chinese balloon was traveling south of the U.S., transiting Latin America.

What they're saying: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the balloon is from China, but said it's a "civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes" and that it deviated far from its course.

The Pentagon rejected the claims that it wasn't used for surveillance.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday postponed his planned trip to Beijing, saying the surveillance balloon in U.S. airspace "is a clear violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law."

Everything we know about the China balloon

"We're going to take care of it," President Biden said on Saturday.

President Biden, with son Hunter Biden, arrives at Hancock Field Air National Guard Base in Syracuse, New York, on Feb. 4. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. Marine Corps veteran Pete Reed died in Ukraine on Thursday, according to a statement from his wife and from Global Response Medicine, the humanitarian aid group he founded.

The big picture: At least seven Americans are known to have died in Ukraine since the Russian invasion began a year ago. 

The U.S. government has discouraged Americans from fighting in Ukraine over concerns that they may be taken hostage by Russian forces.

Driving the news: Reed, 33, was evacuating civilians in Bakhmut and responding to the wounded when the shelling occurred, his wife Alex Potter said in a post.

He'd stepped away from his charity last month to work with Global Outreach Doctors on their mission in Ukraine and was killed while rendering aid, according to Global Response Medicine.

What they're saying: "He died doing what he was great at, what gave him life, and what he loved, and apparently by saving a team member with his own body," his wife said.

"This is a stark reminder of the perils rescue and aid workers face in conflict zones as they serve citizens caught in the crossfire," the charity said. 

Former Marine killed in Ukraine while giving aid to wounded

"He died doing what he was great at, what gave him life, and what he loved," Pete Reed's wife said in a tribute post.

Black smoke rises after shelling in Bakhmut on Feb. 3 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba / AFP via Getty Images

The top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee said Saturday that the high-altitude balloon flying over the U.S. this week that came from China is "embarrassing" for Beijing. 

The big picture: Pentagon has accused China of using the balloon to collect information on sensitive military sites. China has denied those allegations and said that the balloon is a civilian airship for "mainly meteorological" purposes.

What they're saying: "I think China's very embarrassed by this," Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said on Fox News. 

Smith said that the balloon was not a "particularly effective" spying tool since the U.S. is familiar with the technology and the balloon wouldn't capture something satellites couldn't see.  

"It's never a positive thing to have your spying efforts exposed to the globe. So it's not a positive for China in any way, shape or form," he added. 

Blinken postpones trip to China after balloon discovery

Top Armed Services Democrat: China "embarrassed" by balloon incident

"It's never a positive thing to have your spying efforts exposed to the globe."

Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) speaks during a meeting of the House Committee on Rules at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on July 12, 2022. (Photo by Oliver Contreras / AFP)

China downplayed Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceling a visit to Beijing in the wake of a suspected spy balloon flying over the U.S., saying that a meeting between the two countries had never been formally announced.

Why it matters: Blinken confirmed Friday that he postponed a planned trip to China after the surveillance balloon was discovered.

His trip would've been the first visit by a top U.S. diplomat in six years.

The big picture: The Chinese balloon — suspected of flying over sensitive areas to collect information — has been flying over the U.S. since Wednesday.

Blinken told Wang Yi, China's top foreign affairs official that the surveillance balloon in U.S. airspace "is a clear violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law."

He added that it was "an irresponsible act" and "was detrimental to the substantive discussions that (the U.S. and China) were prepared to have.”

China claimed the balloon is a civilian airship for "mainly meteorological" purposes.

What they're saying: “In actuality, the U.S. and China have never announced any visit, the U.S. making any such announcement is their own business, and we respect that,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Saturday morning, per AP. 

Of note: The Pentagon confirmed to Axios that there's a second balloon flying over Latin America. 

“We now assess it is another Chinese surveillance balloon,” Pentagon Press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

China downplays Blinken postponing visit over alleged spy balloon

China argued that neither side had formally announced any plan for Blinken to visit Beijing.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks on human rights at the State Department on April 12, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Tony Blinken

Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed Friday that he postponed his planned trip to Beijing after the discovery of a high-altitude balloon flying over the U.S. that came from China.

Why it matters: China's Foreign Ministry said the balloon — which U.S. defense officials say will be over the country for a "few days" — originated in China, but claimed it is a civilian airship for "mainly meteorological" purposes.

Blinken's trip would've been the first visit by a top U.S. diplomat in six years.

Pentagon officials in announcing the balloon's location Thursday said it does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground. 

The latest: Blinken said during a briefing Friday that he made clear to Wang Yi,  China's top foreign affairs official, that the surveillance balloon in U.S. airspace "is a clear violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law."

"We concluded that conditions were not conducive for a constructive visit at this time,” he added, calling it “detrimental to the substantive discussions that we were prepared to have.”

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a press conference earlier Friday that the balloon is being "closely" monitored by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

He said the airship was drifting east at an altitude of 60,000 feet and was over the center of the continental U.S., but he didn't give an exact location.

A National Weather Service (NWS) station in Kansas City said it has received reports of and could see a large balloon near its station on Friday and confirmed it was not an NWS weather balloon.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon said Friday night that a second Chinese balloon was traveling south of the U.S.

"We are seeing reports of a balloon transiting Latin America," Ryder said in a statement to Axios. "We now assess it is another Chinese surveillance balloon." 

"We have no further information to provide at this time,” Ryder added.

As for the first balloon, a senior U.S. defense official alleged with "very high confidence" on Thursday that it is flying over sensitive areas to collect information, according to AP.

The balloon was spotted in Montana, the location of one of the three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base.

What they're saying: "The airship is from China," China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

"It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course."

"The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure. The Chinese side will continue communicating with the US side and properly handle this unexpected situation caused by force majeure."

Ryder said the Pentagon was aware of the statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry but rejected its claims that it wasn't used for surveillance.

"The fact is, we know that it's a surveillance balloon, and I'm not going to be able to be more specific than that," Ryder said. "We do know that the balloon has violated U.S. airspace and international law, which is unacceptable."

The big picture: Ryder said on Thursday the balloon was traveling above the U.S. "at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground."

The Pentagon decided against shooting the airship down over safety concerns for people on the ground, according to NBC News.

The Canadian Armed Forces said it was also monitoring "a potential second incident" regarding a high-altitude surveillance balloon.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional background and developments.

U.S. defense officials alleged the balloon is flying over sensitive areas to collect information.

High-altitude balloon floats over Billings, Mont., on Wednesday.

 High-altitude balloon floats over Billings, Mont., on Feb. 1. Photo: Larry Mayer/The Billings Gazette via AP 

U.S. lawmakers are urging Azerbaijan to end the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh as the region remains cut off from food, medicine and often fuel for a 53rd day.

Driving the news: House Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.) joined demonstrators at the Capitol Thursday, calling for the U.S. to hold Azerbaijan accountable for the human rights abuses against the people of Karabakh and urging support for a bipartisan House resolution.

The only route neighboring Armenia can use to supply Nagorno-Karabakh — where 120,000 ethnic Armenians live though it is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan — has been blocked since Dec. 12 by people claiming to be anti-mining protesters.

The resolution, aimed at breaking the blockade, calls for the immediate suspension of any U.S. military or security assistance to Azerbaijan; U.S. leadership in petitioning international courts to investigate Azerbaijani war crimes; and humanitarian relief to victims.

Azerbaijan has denied any blockade, saying the road-blocking activists are staging a legitimate protest, per Reuters.

What they're saying: "U.S. support for this warmonger Aliyev has to stop," Schiff said of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. "Not a dime more for Azerbaijan. ... Not a penny more for this war criminal who is making war on a peaceful people."

Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) this week called on the Biden administration to take immediate steps to end the blockade and to end all U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan. "American taxpayers shouldn't be subsidizing Azerbaijan's constant aggression against the Armenian people," she said on the House floor.

"For over nearly two months, the region's 120,000 Armenians have been denied food, fuel, medicine and other essentials as a result of this cruel and inhumane blockade," she said. "Azerbaijan's goal is clear: to force the ethnic Armenians of Artsakh from their homeland by imposing conditions that make life impossible. We must hold Azerbaijan accountable for its aggression."

Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.) said on the House floor that her southern California district is home to an American Armenian community formed by survivors of the Armenian genocide. "Now in the face of Azerbaijan aggression, many of my constituents fear a second genocide," she said.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said he's concerned about the worsening humanitarian crisis and urged Azerbaijan's government to "facilitate fully unimpeded free passage."

The big picture: Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan persist despite a September ceasefire that came after Azerbaijan launched an attack on Armenia, escalating a decades-long dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, the population of which is predominantly Armenian.

Officials in Nagorno-Karabakh have instituted a rationing system as food supply dwindles. Baby formula, diapers and medicine are now hard to come by.

Azerbaijan has also often cut the gas supply, leaving people without heat in the freezing winter temperatures.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with information about the blockade and Azerbaijan's denial. This story has also been corrected to reflect that the bipartisan resolution to end the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh has not yet been introduced in the U.S. House. 

U.S. lawmakers warn of Azerbaijan blockade "catastrophe"

"If this continues, I fear a humanitarian catastrophe," Rep. Linda Sánchez said on the House floor.

Armenians protest Dec. 27 at a Russian peacekeepers' checkpoint outside Stepanakert, in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo: Ani Balayan/AFP via Getty Images

Adam Schiff

 Rep. Adam Schiff at the U.S. Capitol Building on Jan. 25 in Washington, D.C. 

Majid Khan, a detainee at the U.S. detention facility at Guantánamo Bay, has been transferred to Belize after completing his sentence, the Department of Defense announced Thursday.

The big picture: Khan was the first person to publicly testify about the brutal treatment he experienced as part of the U.S. government's interrogation program at CIA black sites. His transfer comes as the Biden administration moves to make good on its promise to close the Guantánamo prison.

Khan, who admitted to his role as an al-Qaeda courier, agreed to a deal with prosecutors in February 2012 and pleaded guilty to charges, including conspiracy, murder and providing material support to terrorists.

He spent roughly three years in CIA black site facilities before he was moved to Guantánamo in 2006 and subsequently cooperated with U.S. authorities in other investigations.

Khan was sentenced to no more than 11 years and received credit for his time in custody since 2012.

What they're saying: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin notified Congress of his intent to transfer Khan to the government of Belize on Dec. 22, and "in consultation with Belize partners, we completed the requirements for responsible transfer," the Department of Defense said in a statement.

"The United States appreciates the willingness of the Government of Belize and other partners to support ongoing U.S. efforts focused on responsibly reducing the detainee population and ultimately closing the Guantanamo Bay facility."

Worth noting: 34 people remain detained at Guantánamo Bay — 20 are eligible for transfer, according to the department.

Guantánamo Bay detainee who testified about CIA abuse transferred to Belize

His transfer comes as the Biden administration moves to make good on its promise to close the Guantánamo prison.

Photo of a guard post with the American flag flying in the front

A guard post at the U.S. Detention Center in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba in 2010. Photo: Paul J. Richards /AFP via Getty Images

Guantanamo Bay Naval Base

Credit Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Biden administration is crediting its new border policy for a significant drop in the number of Cubans and other migrants who have tried to unlawfully cross the southern border. 

But immigration experts say the new measures may not be an effective long-term strategy to stem the flow of Cubans attempting to come to the U.S.

State of play: Driven by a worsening economic crisis, food and medicine shortages, and political upheaval, more Cubans tried migrating to the U.S. last year than ever before. 

The Biden administration responded to the growing exodus by resuming visa services at the U.S. embassy in Havana and offering Cubans a chance at humanitarian parole. 

Under the program, which was expanded in early January, up to 30,000 people from Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and Haiti can come to the U.S. each month if they have a sponsor, pay fees, are vetted before arriving and meet other criteria.

Immigrants rights activists say the number is not nearly enough, and have opposed the program’s restrictions on asylum access. Meanwhile, on the right, some see allowing 30,000 in each month as an overreach of the use of parole.

The big picture: The most recent exodus from Cuba has been at least partly driven by the worsening of the decades-long economic crisis on the island over the last three years, with more acute shortages and repeated blackouts.

The drop in tourism during the pandemic, sanctions from the embargo and complicated attempts to reform the economy have left empty coffers and wallets.

The government has less funds to import staples —  around 70% of food is imported — and Cubans have little access to nutrition and medicines.

Activists also say the government has cracked down more heavily on dissent since mass protests in 2021.

Where it stands: Border authorities encountered more than 91,000 people from those countries at the Southwest border in December, according to Department of Homeland Security data. 

But in January — when the new policy went into effect —  there was a 97% decline in the number of encounters compared to last month, DHS announced last week, citing preliminary data.

In the first 20 days of the policy, more than 1,700 people from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti arrived in the U.S. through the new parole process, according to a DHS official.

That shows, the Biden administration says, the new policy is already working.

Yes, but: Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, a policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, says the new policy alone won’t be enough “to deter irregular migrant arrivals over the long term.” 

That’s partly because the perception that the program may be blocked by the courts "could trigger Cuban migrants’ decision to resort again to irregular migration channels, especially because economic instability and episodes of political repression in Cuba are unabating," Ruiz Soto says.  

The policy is being challenged in federal court by 20 Republican-led states that argue it creates a visa program without congressional approval.

Plus, the program could have the unintended consequence of leaving Cubans who have already made their way to Mexico, with plans to travel to the U.S., trapped south of the border if it ends or can't keep up with demand, Ruiz Soto adds.

Even if the policy is allowed to stay in place, years of U.S. warnings to Cuban migrants have done little to stem the movement before, says Jorge Duany, the director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

"I don't believe much more can be done for the moment to slow down the flow of undocumented Cubans to the U.S. The hope is that the parole mechanism will in time at least reduce it by channeling it to legal means, but remains to be seen."

What we're watching: The policy does not automatically disqualify those who attempt to come to the U.S. irregularly by sea — a loophole that has raised concern among immigration-focused administration officials, according to one source familiar with internal government discussions.

The Coast Guard has intercepted over 5,300 Cubans at sea since October. Dozens have died attempting to migrate, including six people last week when a boat capsized.

Biden's Cuban migrant policy may not be effective in long-term, experts say

The Biden administration is crediting its new border policy for a significant drop in unlawful border crossings.

Cuba

Ecuadorians on Sunday will vote on several measures aimed at reforming the nation's constitution, including reducing the size of its legislative body.

Details: President Guillermo Lasso, a center-right leader, called for the referendum late last year, saying it would create better legislative representation and help battle a crime wave and environmental problems. 

The referendum has eight questions, including one about a proposal that would allow other countries to extradite Ecuadorians accused of organized crime. 

Another asks if the country should reduce the number of lawmakers in the National Assembly from between 130-150, depending on population size in some provinces, to around 100.

The referendum — which polls show has a slight majority support — also includes a proposal to create a new water protection system.  

Between the lines: Lasso has clashed with the Assembly and has a general approval rating of about 30%, according to polls.  

Last summer, as Indigenous groups were staging mass strikes asking for better protections against mining in their lands, the Assembly held an unsuccessful vote to remove Lasso from power. 

Experts say Lasso is using the referendum for a political win and to boost support for his 2025 re-election campaign. 

What to watch: Voting is mandatory in Ecuador, and results are expected as soon as Monday afternoon. Voters can pick answers for each question separately. 

Lasso also pushed for a question about whether to allow the armed forces to support local police in some regions, but the constitutional court ruled in November that the Assembly must vote on it first.

Lasso argues the proposal would help stem growing crime.

The UN said last week after a visit to the country that the use of armed forces should be exceptional only.

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Ecuador to vote on constitutional reforms

Experts say President Lasso is using the referendum for a political win and to boost support for his 2025 re-election campaign.

Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso late last year. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images 

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