Axios

The Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel on Saturday morning local time.

Why it matters: This was the first attack by the Houthis since the war in Gaza ended last October. The attack signals the Iranian proxy group is joining the war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran after several weeks of sitting on the sidelines.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as a key figure in President Trump's push for peace talks with Tehran.

The big picture: Trump has pressed Iran to strike a peace deal as the war reaches its first month, but the regime has rebuffed and mocked the overtures. However, Ghalibaf has reportedly shown a willingness to engage.

A hacktivist group that the U.S. has linked to back to Iranian intelligence services claims it has stolen "personal and confidential information" from FBI Director Kash Patel, including emails, documents and potentially confidential files.

Why it matters: The attack could be the most significant cyberattack of the ongoing war between the U.S., Israel and Iran, and could put an uncomfortable spotlight on Patel.

When the Iran war started, market analysts issued reassuring notes: Short-lived geopolitical shocks don't typically rattle the stock market, they said.

Why it matters: We're now into month two of conflict. Equities are wobbling, and investors are growing increasingly skeptical of President Trump's assurances.

Where it stands: The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is now down 11% from its record-high close on Oct. 29 — officially entering correction territory.

• The Russell 2000, an index tracking smaller companies, landed in correctionville last week.
• The S&P 500 has held up a bit better, but it's down 7.2% from its closing high.

Catch up quick: Minutes after the market closed Thursday, Trump posted that he was extending the deadline for Iran negotiations.

• "As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 days." That would bring his latest deadline to Monday, April 6.

The latest: That statement didn't calm the markets for long. Oil prices spiked to around $110 a barrel when the market reopened.

• "While the delay might reduce some of the immediate escalation risk, it offers no new visibility on the path toward resolution," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note this morning.

The big picture: If the market does take a another leg down, the effects on American households would be more pronounced than in previous oil price shock moments.

• Nearly 40% of household wealth in the U.S. is tied up in stocks — compared with about 10% during the 1990 oil price shock, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said in a note yesterday.
• That means Americans would be hit with a double whammy from the geopolitical conflict: higher energy prices and lower brokerage account balances. That in turn would be a drag on overall economic growth, as households cut back on spending.
• It would also be another downer to the consumer mood.

Zoom out: The stock market doesn't typically take kindly to long periods of high oil prices stemming from Middle East Conflict.

• Over the past 50 years, there were nine oil price shocks, where prices rose 20% or more, according to an analysis from Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at JPMorgan Private Bank.

Zoom in: Four of those shocks led to a selloff in stocks — an S&P decline greater than 10%:

• The 1973 oil embargo, the Iranian hostage crisis, the 1990 Gulf war and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
• In each case, oil prices rose more than 50%.

Stunning stat: The price of Brent crude is up nearly 40% from the beginning of the war.

Yes, but: It's not just the oil price that triggered the selloff, Seydl writes. Each of those selloffs coincided with either a recession in the six months after the shock or Federal Reserve interest rate increases.

• The past doesn't predict the future.

What to watch: Weekend postings by Trump. The president has had a tendency to escalate the conflict with Iran with social media posts on Saturdays and Sundays that in turn has driven a lot of market volatility.

Vice President JD Vance is preparing to take on the most important assignment of his career: steering U.S. efforts to end a war he'd been concerned about waging in the first place.

Why it matters: Vance has already had multiple calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met Gulf allies about the war and been involved in indirect communications with the Iranians. He's expected to be the top U.S. negotiator in potential peace talks.

China's emergence as a second hub of pharmaceutical innovation could trigger massive changes to the global drug market, including how treatments are regulated and priced in the U.S.

Why it matters: More cutting-edge therapies are generally a good thing for patients, regardless of where they come from. But the new world order could spark questions over who'll access those therapies and where money flows.

The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending at least 10,000 additional combat troops to the Middle East in the coming days, according to a senior U.S. defense official.

Why it matters: If the Trump administration decides to send extra troops, it will significantly increase the number of combat soldiers the U.S. has in the region. It is another signal that a U.S. ground operation in Iran is being seriously prepared.

President Trump's political team is meeting with his Cabinet late Thursday to discuss plans for top officials to fan out across the country to stress what the administration is doing to help the economy, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump's team believes the economy — above all other issues, including any anxiety over the president's actions on Iran or immigration — will drive voter sentiment heading into the November elections.

President Trump extended the deadline for negotiations with Iran and paused his threat to bomb Iranian energy facilities by another 10 days.

Why it matters: The Trump administration through a group of mediators, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, has asked Tehran to hold a high-level meeting this week to discuss a U.S. proposal for ending the war.

President Trump is considering a range of options for military escalation with Iran, several of which center around strategic islands in the Persian Gulf.

Why it matters: The importance of the islands comes from their proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy chokepoint, and in some cases their role in Iran's own oil industry or military defenses. But taking and holding Iranian territory would be far riskier than anything the U.S. has attempted thus far in the war.