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A bipartisan group of more than two dozen nuclear and Middle East experts sent a letter to President Biden on Thursday urging him not to allow Saudi Arabia to have a uranium enrichment program on its soil, according to the letter first shared with Axios.

Why it matters: The Saudi demand for a civilian nuclear program that includes uranium enrichment is the most complicated and sensitive part of the mega-deal the White House is negotiating with the kingdom and Israel.

It is one of Saudi Arabia's main demands in the Biden administration's efforts to secure a peace deal between the kingdom and Israel.

But it not only faces opposition from the experts who sent Thursday's letter but also from Israel's opposition, as well as many members of Congress who are critical of the Saudi government over its human rights record. 

What they're saying: The 27 experts who signed the letter say they support normalization but think the kingdom doesn't need uranium enrichment to produce peaceful nuclear energy.

"We urge you to reject the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's request for uranium enrichment as part of or separate from a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel," they wrote.

The experts stressed that uranium enrichment on Saudi soil could bring Saudi Arabia to the brink of acquiring nuclear arms — a reality U.S. policy should keep from happening.

Signatories to the letter include several former U.S. officials who served under both Republican and Democratic administrations and worked on nuclear or Middle East issues.

They also include David Albright, one of the leading nuclear experts in the world, Olli Heinonen and Pierre Goldschmidt, both former deputy director generals of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's former national security adviser, Jacob Nagel.

The letter was co-organized by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington think tank that holds pro-Israeli views. 

State of play: The Biden administration is still negotiating with the Saudi officials the conditions for a possible civilian nuclear program.

Separate negotiations on the issue are being held between the Biden administration and the Israeli government.

Unlike the signatories of the letter, Netanyahu doesn't object to Saudi Arabia having a civilian nuclear program and his government is negotiating with the U.S. the red lines and the guardrails for a program that would include uranium enrichment.

A senior U.S. official told reporters on Wednesday that there is total alignment between the Israeli government and the Biden administration when it comes to the red lines.

The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

The big picture: In the letter, the experts also said that even if the enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia is operated by Americans, it will pose "an unacceptable proliferation risk, particularly given Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's public comments on nuclear weapons".

MBS told Fox News in an interview that was aired on Wednesday that if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would "have to get one, for security reasons, for balancing power."

The experts also wrote that Saudi threats to go to China for nuclear technology are not a reason for the U.S. to change its policy on nuclear enrichment, a step that will be "a sign of weakness" and could encourage similar efforts by other countries.

The experts added that allowing Saudi Arabia to have uranium enrichment capability like Iran could trigger a regional nuclear arms race.

"Any nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia must meet the highest non-proliferation standards and enhanced inspection and transparency measures through a strong Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency," they wrote.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to note that the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center was also a co-organizer of the letter. 

Israeli government and the Biden administration

Top nuclear experts urge Biden to not allow Saudi uranium enrichment in mega-deal

The Saudi demand is the most complicated and sensitive part of the mega-deal negotiations.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on July 16, 2022. Photo: MANDEL NGAN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on July 16, 2022. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Saudi Arabia

Israel

Iran

Joe Biden

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

NEW YORK CITY — President Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in their meeting Wednesday that he was concerned about the Israeli leader's intention to continue pushing his judicial overhaul legislation unilaterally, according to the White House.

Why it matters: The judicial overhaul has been a point of contention in the two leaders' relationship since it was first introduced, with the Biden administration concerned about what it will mean for Israel's democracy.

Wednesday's meeting was the two leaders' first sit-down since Netanyahu returned to office nearly nine months ago. The long delay — and the fact the meeting took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and not at the White House as Netanyahu had wanted — underscores the strained relations.

The meeting's location was chosen after a long internal debate over political optics and foreign policy considerations, U.S. officials previously told Axios.

Driving the news: Netanyahu and his coalition partners are aiming to pass a law in the upcoming Knesset session that will change the system of appointing judges to the Supreme Court.

This is the main part of the judicial overhaul.

What they're saying: "The President ... reiterated his concern about any fundamental changes to Israel's democratic system, absent the broadest possible consensus," the White House said in a readout of the Wednesday meeting.

Netanyahu told Biden he is trying to reach a consensus with some in the opposition, but if those efforts fail, he will try to get a broad consensus in the public about further changes in the judicial system, according to a senior Israeli official, who stressed to reporters this was not the main issue of the one-hour meeting between the leaders.

Netanyahu at the top of their meeting told Biden that Israel's commitment to democracy will never change and stressed that he will continue to uphold the values both countries share.

Biden said that regardless of the differences between the U.S. and Israel, his commitment and support for Israel "remains ironclad."

State of play: Netanyahu has faced monthslong protests against the overhaul at home. He is also facing them in the U.S.

Israelis, American Jews and others demonstrated outside New York City's Intercontinental Hotel, where Wednesday's meeting took place.

The pro-democracy protesters demanded Netanyahu pull the plug on his government's judicial overhaul, which they say is undermining Israeli democracy.

Some held signs reading, "Biden save Israel."

The big picture: Biden and Netanyahu also discussed Iran, a new international infrastructure project to "develop the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel," and ongoing tensions and violence in the occupied West Bank, the White House said in the readout of the meeting.

The senior Israeli official said the Biden administration's efforts to get a Saudi-Israeli peace deal was the issue discussed. 

Biden told Netanyahu at the top of the meeting that normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a "big deal." He added that he suffers from "Irish optimism" and that if he talked about such a possibility a decade ago, people would have asked him what he had been drinking. "Maybe Irish Whiskey," Netanyahu replied.

Netanyahu also said: "I think that under your leadership, Mr. President, we can forge a historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia. And I think such a peace would go a long way for us to advance the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict, achieve reconciliation between the Islamic world and the Jewish state, and advance a genuine peace between Israel and the Palestinians."

During their private meeting, Netanyahu agreed the Palestinian Authority should play a role in the process of getting a mega-deal, but cannot have veto power over parts of any agreement it doesn't like.

What to watch: Biden invited Netanyahu to Washington before the end of the year "to continue direct collaboration on this broad range of issues," the White House said. 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout.

Biden tells Bibi he's concerned about Israel's judicial overhaul legislation

Biden and Bibi discuss judicial overhaul in much-anticipated meeting

It's their first in-person meeting since Netanyahu returned to office nearly nine months ago.

President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Benjamin Netanyahu

Iran frees 5 Americans in prisoner swap

Five Americans being freed in prisoner swap leave Iran

"Today, five innocent Americans who were imprisoned in Iran are finally coming home."

Photo: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that it is withdrawing the designation of several senior UN inspectors who were working in the country, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Saturday. 

Why it matters: The decision is a significant escalation by Iran that could hamper the UN nuclear watchdog's ability to monitor Tehran's nuclear program.

What they're saying: "With today's decision, Iran has effectively removed about one-third of the core group of the Agency's most experienced inspectors designated for Iran," Grossi said in a statement.

"This measure, while formally permitted by the NPT Safeguards Agreement, has been exercised by Iran in a manner that affects in a direct and severe way the ability of the IAEA to conduct effectively its inspections in Iran. I strongly condemn this disproportionate and unprecedented unilateral measure," he added. 

Grossi said Iran's decision follows a recent withdrawal of the designation of another experienced agency inspector for Iran.

He called on the Iranian government to reconsider its decision "and to return to a path of cooperation with the Agency."

Driving the news: The U.S. and more than 60 other countries this week expressed concern over “Iran's lack of cooperation on NPT Safeguards Agreement,” including by not providing “technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at three undeclared locations in Iran.”

The U.S. and its E3 allies — the U.K., France and Germany — also condemned Iran's refusal to answer the UN nuclear watchdog's questions regarding its undeclared nuclear activities. 

The Western powers threatened to put forth another resolution at the IAEA demanding action. 

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said the move was a response to the U.S., U.K., France and Germany's "misuse" of the agency's Board of Governors "for their own political purposes."

Kanaani said Iran had already warned against the consequences of political misuse of the IAEA.

The big picture: Iran's move comes amid an effort to implement a set of understandings with the U.S. on a prisoner swap deal and de-escalation in its nuclear program and in the region.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken earlier this month signed a waiver to allow banks to transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds without the fear of being harmed by U.S. sanctions — a move the State Department described as "critical" for a prisoner swap deal between the U.S. and Iran to move forward.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the Iranian Foreign Ministry statement. 

IAEA: Iran expels several inspectors in "unprecedented" move

It's a significant escalation by Iran that could hamper the UN nuclear watchdog's ability to monitor Tehran's nuclear program.

The flag of Iran is seen in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency headquarters in Vienna. Photo: Michael Gruber/Getty Images

Nuclear program of Iran

The U.S. said on Friday it was issuing a new round of sanctions targeting Iranian individuals and entities that played a role in the "violent suppression" of protests that rocked the country following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody a year ago. 

Driving the news: The death of Amini, who died on Sept. 16, 2022, after being detained by the country's morality police for allegedly violating a religious law requiring women to wear headscarves, prompted mass calls for greater rights and freedoms for women in Iran. 

Iranian security services responded with a violent crackdown, including making thousands of arrests and shutting down the internet. Hundreds were killed in the protests, according to rights groups. 

Details: The Treasury Department announced Friday that it was designating 29 individuals and entities, including 18 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Law Enforcement Forces (LEF).

Individuals connected to the Iranian government's internet blockade and human rights abuses were also sanctioned, Treasury said. 

The new sanctions are the 13th round issued by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in connection to the protests over Amini's death, per the department. 

The State Department will concurrently impose visa restrictions on 13 Iranians believed to be involved in the "detention or killing of peaceful protestors or inhibiting their rights to freedom of expression or assembly."

What they're saying: "Mahsa's story did not end with her brutal death," President Biden said in a statement Friday commemorating the anniversary.

"She inspired a historic movement—Woman, Life, Freedom—that has impacted Iran and influenced people across the globe who are tirelessly advocating for gender equality and respect for their human rights, " President Biden said in a statement Friday," he added.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a video statement: "As the epitaph on Ms. Amini's grave reads, 'Her name will become a symbol.' Indeed, it has. And it will always be a reminder of the courage of the Iranian people."

State of play: The protests, which gradually dwindled in size amid the crackdown, represented the largest demonstration against the Iranian government in years.

"In anticipation of the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death, Iranian authorities have proactively arrested activists in an effort to dissuade others from resuming anti-government protests," the Treasury Department noted.

This included the arrests of 12 female rights activists, who were accused of planning to incite "chaos and vandalism" on the upcoming anniversary, the New York Times reported.

In recent days, police have been more present on the streets of Tehran, conducting snap checkpoints, and internet access has been disrupted, AP reported.

U.S. issues new Iran sanctions on anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death

"Mahsa's story did not end with her brutal death," President Biden said in a statement.

signs at a protest at the Iranian consulate on October 31, 2022 in İstanbul,

Signs at a protest over Mahsa Amini's death, at the Iranian consulate in Oct. 2022 in İstanbul. Photo: Omer Kuscu/ dia images via Getty Images

The U.S. and Bahrain are expected to sign a strategic security and economic agreement this week that will upgrade the U.S. security commitment to the Gulf kingdom, according to three sources briefed on the issue.

Why it matters: Bahrain is a key U.S. partner in the Gulf. The Navy's 5th Fleet is headquartered on a large U.S. naval base there. In 2002, the Gulf kingdom became a major non-NATO ally of the U.S. — an important symbolic designation but one that does not include any security commitments.

Bahrain sees Iran, located less than 100 miles away on the other side of the Gulf, as a threat.

Tehran for years has claimed Bahrain as one of its provinces. The Bahraini government has rejected the claims and accused Iran of fueling unrest among the kingdom's Shiite population.

Driving the news: Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa is expected to sign the agreement during a visit to Washington this week, the sources said. 

He is also expected to meet Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and national security adviser Jake Sullivan, according to one source.

Brett McGurk, Biden's senior Middle East adviser, visited Bahrain last week and met with the crown prince and other Bahraini officials. 

Details: The agreement includes a commitment to consult and provide assistance if Bahrain faces an imminent security threat, two sources said.

Another source familiar with the agreement said it will be legally binding. It will include a security commitment, and outline an economic partnership between the U.S. and Bahrain as well as cooperation around trusted technologies. 

The agreement, however, does not include a NATO-style Article 5 commitment, which would have required the U.S. to see any attack on Bahrain as an attack on America.

The White House and the Bahraini Embassy declined to comment.

Behind the scenes: The sources said the U.S.-Bahrain strategic agreement has been in the works for more than a year.

The Biden administration wanted to use the agreement as a framework for similar agreements with other countries in the region, the sources said.

According to one source, McGurk discussed the final details of the agreement during his trip to Manama last week.

The big picture: The agreement with Bahrain is part of a broader push by the Biden administration to strengthen ties with Gulf countries.

On Saturday, Biden announced together with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and India a major international infrastructure project to connect India, the Middle East and Europe with a network of railways and shipping lines.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman said in his speech at the launching of the project that the kingdom will invest $20 billion in Biden's Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, which will also include the railway and shipping project.

The Biden administration's efforts to get a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel got another boost over the weekend when a delegation of the Israeli Foreign Ministry and Antiquities Authority arrived in Riyadh to participate in the UNESCO World Heritage Committee meeting. It was the first time an Israeli government delegation visited Saudi Arabia officially and publicly.

What to watch: The Biden administration is holding talks with Saudi Arabia on a mega-deal that could also include a U.S.-Saudi Arabia defense treaty.

Saudi officials want the agreement to be stronger and to include more commitments from the U.S., as Axios has previously reported. That would likely require Senate approval.

Scoop: U.S. and Bahrain to sign strategic security and economic agreement

It will upgrade the U.S. security commitment to Bahrain, which sees Iran as a threat.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, at the State Department in Washington, DC,

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on March 2, 2022. Photo: Elizabeth Franz/AFP via Getty Images

Bahrain

Iran has released five Americans from prison and placed them on house arrest, the White House confirmed Thursday, saying that "negotiations for their eventual release remain ongoing and are delicate."

The big picture: Those placed on house arrest include two unidentified Americans and Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz and Emad Shargi, who have each spent several years in an Iranian prison.

Namazi, Tahbaz, Shargi and one of the unidentified Americans were released from Iran's Evin prison and are expected to be held at a hotel under guard by Iranian officials under house arrest, according to Jared Genser, Namazi's lawyer. 

It's unclear whether the fifth is also being held with the others. 

Catch up quick: The State Department has declared three of the Iranian Americans — Namazi, Shargi and Tahbaz — wrongfully detained.

Namazi, a businessman, has been detained in Iran since 2016 after he was convicted of espionage-related charges, per Reuters.

Tahbaz, an environmentalist who is also a British citizen, was sentenced to 10 years in prison in 2018.

Shargi was also sentenced to 10 years in 2020 on espionage charges.

What they're saying: National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement on Thursday that negotiations for their eventual release are "delicate" and ongoing. 

"While this is an encouraging step, these U.S. citizens - Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Shargi, and two Americans who at this time wish to remain private - should have never been detained in the first place," Watson said.

Babak Namazi, Siamak's brother, also welcomed the news in a statement.

"We are grateful that Siamak and the other Americans in Iran are out of Evin Prison and under house arrest," he said. "While this is a positive change, we will not rest until Siamak and others are back home."

Between the lines: It's unclear if the move to house release signals Iran may be close to releasing the Americans. 

Iranian state media for months has reported that a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap may soon be possible, but the Biden administration said Thursday it could not provide details about "efforts to secure their freedom."

The big picture: The New York Times reported Thursday that the U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement for the release of the five Americans in exchange for several Iranians in prison for violating sanctions on Iran.

As part of the deal, per the Times, the U.S. will transfer nearly $6 billion of Iranian assets held in South Korea into an account in the central bank of Qatar. 

The account will be controlled by Qatar, and Iran will only be able to access the funds to pay for humanitarian aid like medicine and food, according to the Times, which cited several people familiar with the deal.

The Korea Economic Daily also reported on Tuesday that South Korea and the U.S. are discussing ways to release $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea. The funds are a South Korean debt for oil imports from Iran.

Go deeper: Scoop: Bibi wants security agreement from Biden on deterring Iran as part of mega Saudi deal

Scoop: Bibi wants security agreement from Biden on deterring Iran as part of mega Saudi deal

Iran moves 5 imprisoned Americans to house arrest

The U.S. has said the five were "unjustly detained" by Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to get a security agreement with the U.S. focused on deterring Iran in the context of the mega-deal the Biden administration is trying to reach with Saudi Arabia and Israel, four Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: A formal agreement, which would likely have to be approved by Congress, would give stronger U.S. security guarantees to Israel at a time when Iran continues to advance its nuclear program. The chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congress the Iranians could build a nuclear device within five months if they decided to do so. 

Driving the news: Netanyahu brought up the idea for a U.S.-Israeli security agreement in passing during his last phone call with President Biden in July, three Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios. 

Netanyahu told Biden he wants to send his confidant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to Washington to present a proposal in detail, the officials said. Dermer is the driving force behind the idea and he started pushing it shortly after Netanyahu assumed office seven months ago, a senior Israeli official told Axios. 

The exact parameters of Neyanyahu's proposed agreement are not known but Israeli officials say it is meant to focus on U.S. security guarantees around a possible military nuclear threat from Iran.

Netanyahu's office said it won't comment on private diplomatic conversations. 

A National Security Council spokesperson did not respond to specific questions about Netanyahu's idea, but said the administration continues its "support for full normalization with Israel" and "to talk to our regional partners [in the Middle East] about how more progress can be made."

"Normalization and the details of any agreement reached have to be decided by two sovereign states," the spokesperson added.

The big picture: Netanyahu sees a U.S.-Israeli security agreement as something that could be signed in the context of the broader deal the U.S. is trying to reach with Saudi Arabia that would also include a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, Israeli officials said.

As part of the talks around the deal, the Biden administration and Saudi officials are discussing a possible security agreement that would give U.S. security guarantees to the kingdom.

The Saudis wanted an agreement that would include a NATO-style Article 5 commitment in which the U.S. would treat any attack against Saudi Arabia like an attack against the U.S. 

The Biden administration didn't accept this request but did agree to discuss what some U.S. officials are calling an "article 4.5" commitment — a security guarantee that would fall short of the Saudi expectations but would still be significant, a U.S. official said.

Netanyahu and Dermer want something similar and think that in a broader context of a U.S.-Saudi-Israel deal, such a security agreement will be easier to get, Israeli officials said.

Flashback: In 2019, Netanyahu and Dermer, who was then the Israeli ambassador to Washington tried to get a similar agreement from then-President Trump.

Many senior officials in the Israeli security establishment were opposed to the idea, saying such an agreement would limit the IDF's freedom of operation.

A few days before the September 2019 Israeli elections, Trump said on social media that he discussed with Netanyahu the possibility of moving forward with a mutual defense treaty.

At the time, this appeared to be an effort by Trump to help Netanyahu ahead of the Israeli elections. Netanyahu didn't win the elections and the idea largely died until recently. 

Between the lines: While upgrading the already strong U.S.-Israeli security relationship, such an agreement could give more leverage to the U.S. when it comes to influencing Israeli military operations.

At a conference in Washington in November 2019, Dermer said a defense treaty with the U.S. would provide Israel "with an additional layer of deterrence against the most extreme threats that Israel faces."

He said at the time that he envisioned a "narrow treaty" that would serve the defense needs of both sides but also wouldn't tie Israel's hands.

What to watch: U.S. officials have previously said the administration wants to try to complete its diplomatic initiative with Saudi Arabia before the presidential election campaign consumes Biden's agenda, as Axios reported earlier this year.

Scoop: Bibi wants security agreement from Biden as part of mega Saudi deal

The agreement would be focused on deterring Iran, officials say.