1 big thing: To phone or not to phone

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Axios Markets is edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.

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1 big thing: Distinctly disinflationary

2. Charted: T-note yields tumbled

3. Catch up quick

4. Wrapped envy

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5. The "pink tax" is alive and well 

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We made it to Friday — and the final Jobs Day of 2023. Buckle up.

Today's newsletter is 988 words, 4 minutes. 

1 big thing: Sacklers at the Supreme Court

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2. But claimants would like their money, please...

4. Stocks hit 2023 high

5. An economist walks into a fashion website

👋 Welcome back! Big day. Oxford says the word of the year is "rizz." Plus, there's a big case on tap at the Supreme Court. Let's get into it. Today's newsletter is 1,152 words, 4.5 minutes.

1 big thing: Crypto lives

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1 big thing: U.S. eyes Russia’s “shadow fleet”

3. Union push at Wells Fargo 

4. Fully remote work is on the decline

5. 📈 60/40's record

Welcome back. Emily here. I'm wide awake this morning, as I would be if I had to listen to an AI-generated Jimmy Stewart narrating a bedtime story. (A real fake thing, apparently.) 

Let's get into our human-generated newsletter. Today's is 1,044 words, 4 minutes. 

FetchError

National

If your apps have been bombarding you with stats about your year in music, food, books, or even language learning, there's a simple explanation — they're trying to capture a little bit of Spotify's marketing magic.

Why it matters: Spotify Wrapped — a year-end analysis of your listening habits — is the Holy Grail of digital advertising, marketing experts say. Other companies are trying to mimic its success, but few have come close.

"It's definitely one of the classics — should be taught in every business school," said Jon Carden, chief marketing officer at Fundrise, a real estate fintech. 

"It's certainly one of the most admired tactics, probably, in the digital space," Carden said.

Catch up quick: Spotify wasn't the first to do a year-end wrap-up. Strava, the running app, launched Year in Sport a decade ago. Goodreads had a Year in Books version in 2013.

Spotify got in the game in 2015. Wrapped didn't go viral until 2019 after the company optimized it for sharing.  

That same year, Apple Music launched its Replay feature. PlayStation, Nintendo, and even Duolingo also got in the game, sending out an email to users. But none of their efforts are as robust or as popular, as the Spotify version. 

Now seemingly everyone is doing it: Aldi — yes, the grocery store — tried something a few days ago. (Dating Wrapped is a thing, too.)

Wrapped is essentially, for companies, a best-case scenario ad campaign since the customers are creating the ads. 

The ads come in the form of sharable, customizable posts — where you can show off to friends and family your top artists, songs, and just how big of a fan of Taylor Swift you are. 

Be smart: Big brands are always trying to create "engagement," getting customers to interact with the company in some way on social media, said Kevin McTigue, a marketing professor at Northwestern University's business school.

There are some bad examples out there of engagement gone wildly wrong, but experts say the optimal form is something like Wrapped. 

"People are willingly engaging in like a minute-long Spotify ad," McTigue said, meaning app users will stop what they're doing to watch the year-end wrap-up. "Not only that, but you're probably going to share it with someone else."  

Ultimately, companies hope this drives people to sign up — because they want to someday get a Wrapped of their own.

It's a "FOMO effect," Spotify's head of consumer and product marketing told Forbes in 2019.  "[It] inherently entices new users to consider Spotify, so it's a flywheel effect."

The company typically sees a jump in app store rankings after the campaign.

The intrigue: Wrapped might also serve as a reminder to current subscribers that they use Spotify a lot and that it's a valuable subscription, said McTigue. That's not going to work for every site.

"You can imagine getting an Apple TV wrapped and it's like you watched 'Ted Lasso' and that's it," he said. So you rush to cancel your subscription. It backfires.

Reality check: Not every company can pull this off. While Wrapped delights people, these kinds of look-backs are also a bracing example of the sheer amount of data digital companies collect on their customers. 

It would be much less delightful to get a Wrapped on your DoorDash deliveries or, say, your credit card statements.  

And, for all of Spotify's marketing success, the company is currently struggling: On Monday, it announced steep job cuts.

The bottom line: Once upon a time, if you wanted to reflect on the past year, you'd need to think, maybe look at some photos or talk to friends. Now, a year in your life is a marketing event for brands.

Why there are so many Spotify Wrapped knockoffs

Wrapped is nothing short of the "Holy Grail" of digital advertising.

Spotify

Business

U.S. tariffs on women's clothing are higher than on men's clothing, finds a new analysis from a former U.S. trade official. 

Why it matters: It's an illustration of how gender discrimination can get embedded into policy — in this case in the taxes the federal government tacks on to imported goods. 

By the numbers: The report, by Ed Gresser, a vice president at the Progressive Policy Institute, finds the average U.S. tariff rate for men's clothing is 13.6%, compared with 16.7% for women's.

The tariff burden on women's apparel was $2.77 billion more than on men's clothing in 2015, according to a paper from the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gresser says it's likely grown since then.

Zoom out: Gresser's analysis follows his earlier report that focused on women's underwear — tariff rates there are 15% compared to 11.5% for men.

 Meanwhile: Taxes on menstrual products are also an issue. 

How tariffs on clothing discriminate against women

Gender

U.S. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tariffs on women&#x27;s clothing" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/13/womens-underwear-tariffs-pink-tax" data-vars-content-id="83975118-ac55-4eee-ba7e-454ac3aa9ff7" data-vars-headline="How tariffs on clothing discriminate against women" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/13/womens-underwear-tariffs-pink-tax" target="_self">tariffs on women&#x27;s clothing</a> are higher than on men&#x27;s clothing, finds a new analysis from a former U.S. trade official. Why it matters: It&#x27;s an illustration of how gender discrimination can get embedded into policy — in this case in the taxes the federal government tacks on to imported goods.

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

Data: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence; Chart: Axios Visuals

Nearly a quarter of workers believe that they'd get a raise if they just asked for one, according to polling data from Morning Consult.

Why it matters: Though it's a minority of workers, the number's grown considerably this year even as the job market has started to slow down.

"On the surface the polling runs against the narrative we're seeing," said Jesse Wheeler, a senior economist at Morning Consult.  

Zoom in: Part of what's happening is the job market has been strong for a while — and recession talk has faded — that does have some psychological impact. 

A lot of workers have been able to successfully negotiate higher pay. Plus, layoffs are still super low compared to historical levels. And, there's a drumbeat of news about union workers getting big raises.

"People are feeling confident," Wheeler said.

Yes, but: That confidence doesn't always translate into people's feelings about the economy overall — consumer sentiment is famously bleh these days.

A quarter of workers are confident they could get a raise: survey

It's another example of how worker leverage lives on.

Labor economics

Nearly a quarter of workers believe that they&#x27;d get a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="raise" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/10/12/raises-decreasing-2024-employees-wage-income" data-vars-content-id="87a81fcf-5df5-44d8-baae-f533fa7ce5bf" data-vars-headline="A quarter of workers are confident they could get a raise: survey" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/10/12/raises-decreasing-2024-employees-wage-income" target="_self">raise</a> if they just asked for one, according to polling data from Morning Consult.Why it matters: Though it&#x27;s a minority of workers, the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="number&#x27;s grown considerably" data-vars-click-url="https://pro.morningconsult.com/analyst-reports/jobs-labor-market-data-december-2023-chart-pack" data-vars-content-id="87a81fcf-5df5-44d8-baae-f533fa7ce5bf" data-vars-headline="A quarter of workers are confident they could get a raise: survey" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/analyst-reports/jobs-labor-market-data-december-2023-chart-pack" target="_blank">number&#x27;s grown considerably</a> this year even as the job market has started to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="slow down" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/us-job-market-openings-labor-pandemic-covid" data-vars-content-id="87a81fcf-5df5-44d8-baae-f533fa7ce5bf" data-vars-headline="A quarter of workers are confident they could get a raise: survey" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/us-job-market-openings-labor-pandemic-covid" target="_self">slow down</a>.

Bankers at a Wells Fargo branch in Daytona Beach, Florida, took a key step toward unionizing on Wednesday morning by notifying the National Labor Relations Board that they plan to hold union elections.

Why it matters: It's the third Wells Fargo branch to move toward union elections — a sign that organizing efforts are gaining steam within the bank, the fourth largest in the country. 

Wells is the only big bank in the U.S. facing serious unionization efforts, as the industry remains relatively untouched by organizing.

Only about 1% of workers in the financial industry are in unions.

Wells bankers are organizing with the support of the Communications Workers of America.

Zoom in: "We have unanimously come together to form a union...and respectfully urge you to voluntarily recognize our union," the employees wrote in a draft of a letter to the bank's CEO, Charles Scharf.

They plan to send the letter, signed by all five of the branch's non-management employees, later on Wednesday. 

They say their branch is understaffed, forcing them to take on larger workloads and leading to longer customer wait times.  

"We don't have enough employees to do our job properly," said Corinne Jefferson, a banker who led organizing efforts at the branch. "We don't even have time sometimes to take lunch breaks, or, you know, go to the bathroom." 

Workers are looking for improved staffing levels, wage increases — Jefferson said her hourly wage hasn't budged in five years — and better benefits.

The other side: When asked Tuesday evening about a bank branch in Florida seeking union representation, bank spokesperson Laurie Kight noted that the company was recently ranked No. 2 on LinkedIn's 2023 list of top companies to grow your career. (Axios didn't name the specific branch in the inquiry.)

 "We strongly believe everyone's individual voice should be heard and that working directly together is the best way to continue to make progress in supporting our employees," Kight said in an emailed statement.

Meanwhile, Scharf said this week that the bank plans to get "more aggressive" with layoffs.

Catch up fast: Last month, Wells bankers at two branches, in New Mexico and Alaska, also filed for elections at the NLRB. The agency essentially monitors and oversees those votes. 

The big picture: For workers, these elections are one of the first hurdles in a long race. If they vote to form a union, the next leap involves negotiating a collective bargaining agreement with the bank.

Other recent seemingly successful unionization efforts, including at Amazon and Starbucks, have so far stalled out at that step, after enormous pushback from those companies.  

Meanwhile: The CWA says that Wells is also pushing back. On Tuesday, flyers went out at the two organizing branches urging workers, "Don't be the union's bait," according to a copy viewed by Axios. 

The flyer says that CWA has had "little success" organizing the banking industry and that they're only using bankers to lure their real target, workers at the Wells call centers. 

"While they make big promises now, what will happen once they move on to other, larger groups of employees," reads the memo, suggesting the branch workers won't be a union priority.

The bank declined to comment on the flyers.

What to watch: Scharf and other Big Bank CEOs are testifying before a Senate committee on Wednesday morning — worker pay and rights are among the topics that may be discussed, per Reuters.

Go deeper: Why Wells Fargo is the only big bank where workers are trying to unionize

Why Wells Fargo is the only big bank where workers are trying to unionize

A third Wells Fargo branch files for a union election

Wells is the only big bank in the U.S. facing serious unionization efforts.

The entrance to a Wells Fargo Bank in San Francisco. Photo: Robert Alexander/Getty Images

Labor

Bankers at a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Wells Fargo" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/18/wells-fargo-union-bank-employees" data-vars-content-id="89d9aee9-2d56-4d38-93a5-d3b7c6e23d27" data-vars-headline="A third Wells Fargo branch files for a union election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/18/wells-fargo-union-bank-employees" target="_self">Wells Fargo</a> branch in Daytona Beach, Florida, took a key step toward unionizing on Wednesday morning by notifying the National Labor Relations Board that they plan to hold union elections.Why it matters: It&#x27;s the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="third Wells Fargo branch" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/two-wells-fargo-branches-vote-to-form-union-0595107c" data-vars-content-id="89d9aee9-2d56-4d38-93a5-d3b7c6e23d27" data-vars-headline="A third Wells Fargo branch files for a union election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/two-wells-fargo-branches-vote-to-form-union-0595107c" target="_blank">third Wells Fargo branch</a> to move toward union elections — a sign that organizing efforts are gaining steam within the bank, the fourth largest in the country.

Fewer workers are working primarily from home these days, according to polling data out Wednesday from Morning Consult.

Why it matters: While far more Americans work remotely now than before the pandemic, the share of those who are fully remote has been steadily declining.

Hybrid work arrangements are becoming more common. Since February, the share of workers who say they never work from home at all has been trending lower, according to Morning Consult. 

Fully remote work is on the decline in the U.S.

Remote work

Fewer workers are working primarily from <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="home" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/16/work-from-home-offices-remote-work-census" data-vars-content-id="e0fa651f-4ea4-4d84-b2f2-43fc704c1c13" data-vars-headline="Fully remote work is on the decline in the U.S." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/16/work-from-home-offices-remote-work-census" target="_self">home</a> these days, according to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="polling data" data-vars-click-url="https://pro.morningconsult.com/analyst-reports/jobs-labor-market-data-december-2023-chart-pack" data-vars-content-id="e0fa651f-4ea4-4d84-b2f2-43fc704c1c13" data-vars-headline="Fully remote work is on the decline in the U.S." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/analyst-reports/jobs-labor-market-data-december-2023-chart-pack" target="_blank">polling data</a> out Wednesday from Morning Consult.Why it matters: While far more Americans work remotely now than before the pandemic, the share of those who are fully remote has been steadily declining.

Emily Peck

Stories

How tariffs on clothing discriminate against women

Why there are so many Spotify Wrapped knockoffs

A quarter of workers are confident they could get a raise: survey

Fully remote work is on the decline in the U.S.

A third Wells Fargo branch files for a union election

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