1 big thing: SF, NYC and WFH

San Francisco. Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

2. Catch up quick

3. 72 minutes a day

Illustration of a woman reclining on the hands of a clock

4. Charted: Where was the SEC?

5. What's next for ChatGPT

Illustration of an asterisks with radial circles, arrows, and circles surrounding it.

Mornin' and happy Tuesday. Let's get into it.

Today's newsletter is 1,095 words, a 4.5-minute read.

1 simple career tip: When you save your resume on your computer (as a .pdf, of course, no weird Word files in 2023) name it FirstnameLastname, advises Tammy Fine, talent strategy lead at NBCUniversal. Like EmilyPeck.pdf, for example. 

"Nothing will help you breakthrough the thousands of incoming resumes easier. Resume2023 means nothing to a recruiter searching their files," Fine wrote in a LinkedIn post last week.

Fine offered the tip to help the thousands of media and tech workers who've been recently laid off. But this also seems like evergreen good advice, right up there with always send a thank you note to the interviewer.

Got any deceptively simple career advice to share? Email us and include your name and hometown, and we might include it in a future newsletter.

Markets

A line of three blocks increasing in height.

green

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights

Axios Markets

1 big thing: Employees are increasingly disgruntled

Illustration of a paper clip making an angry expression 

3. Microsoft's numbers didn't look recessionary

4. Layoff jitters

5. Your filing status

Illustration of Uncle Sam placing a quarter in a person's outstretched hand.

Howdy. Tech earnings officially kicked off last night. More on that below. 

Today's newsletter is 856 words, 3.5 minutes.

This newsletter was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.

1 big thing: Flirting with default, and disaster 

Illustration of a lion tamer with a whip and stool taming a giant piggy bank. 

2. Housing activity still on the skids 

3. Catch up quick

4. Weary renters find no rest

5. Big Labor's quandary

🙋‍♀️Welcome back. Emily here. It's Monday and the start of the tax filing season. I'm not rushing to file though. Like most journalists, I push it to the deadline. For taxes, it's April 18 this year. 

Are you an early filer or a procrastinator? Reply to this email and tell us your strategy.   

OK. Let's get into it. Today's newsletter is 697 words, 3 minutes.

1 last thing from Matt: My snowdrops are almost out — early for us, late January! — after a remarkably mild winter. Of course, things could still take a bitter cold turn over the next couple of months. And yes, there's a bit of the Northern gardener's guilt about enjoying climate change too much. But even so, it's nice to see a sprig of spring.  

Today's newsletter was edited by Javier E. David and copy edited by Mickey Meece. 

1 big thing: New year, new bond market

3. The Zambia test 

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Jean-Claude Coutausse/Bloomberg via Getty Image

4. Just a regular old car maker

Tesla CEO Elon Musk departs court in San Francisco on Tuesday. Photo: Marlena Sloss/Bloomberg via Getty Images

5. Fast food, slow law 

Fast-food workers protesting the push for a referendum in Los Angeles in November. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

It's almost Friday. And we're talking bonds, Tesla, and labor laws. Let's go. 

Today's newsletter is 1,114 words, a 4.5-minute read. 

One last thing from Matt: Big news! De La Soul — titans of the golden age of hip-hop — will finally have a full catalog available on major music streaming services, the Hollywood Reporter says. (I've been long flummoxed by its absence.)

All of their stuff should be available for streaming starting March 3, including my favorite of their albums, 1991’s “De La Soul Is Dead,” which is replete with bangers.

1 big thing: Housing market wakes from the dead 

Illustration of a zombie's hand emerging from a grave, clutching keys.

2. Charted: It's all relative 

4. Finding a floor

5. Meanwhile, housing investment plunged 

It's Friday! Hope you have fun plans this weekend. Stay warm out there. 

Today's newsletter is 950 words, a 4-minute read.

1 last thing from Matt: Check out this list of the best albums of 2022, from Robert Christgau, who all writers are contractually obligated to refer to as the  "dean of rock critics," after a few decades as the Village Voice's pop music critic. He is great, though. The list is terrific.    

 Today's Axios Markets was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece. 

National

Many Americans will be getting a smaller tax refund this year, without the padding of a few crucial pandemic-era tax breaks, the IRS warns.

Why it matters: Many people depend on their refunds to make ends meet, pay down debt or fund extras like vacations. And checks are shrinking at a time when rising prices are already making it harder to pay the bills.

By the numbers: The average tax refund in 2022 was $3,039, a 7.5% increase from the previous year. Now, things are headed back down to Earth as pandemic-era policies expire.

The enhanced child tax credit is gone. Parents who received $3,600 per child during the flush times will now get $2,000.

The Child and Dependent Care Credit, a break that helps working parents pay for childcare, returns to a maximum of $2,100 instead of $8,000.

During COVID, taxpayers could take a $600 deduction for charitable donations even if they just took a standard deduction. Now, only those who itemize can deduct charitable payments.

The Earned Income Tax Credit is also lower than last year for taxpayers with no children.

 🚙 If you bought an electric vehicle in 2022, you could qualify for a $7,500 tax credit. 

But there's a catch: Vehicles purchased on or after August 16, 2022, must have been assembled in North America to qualify. (This site has more details and a list of qualifying vehicles.)

Catch up quick: The IRS just started accepting tax returns on Monday. 

Returns are due on April 18 this year, because the 15th falls on a weekend and because of the Emancipation Day holiday in Washington, D.C. Storm victims living in Alabama, California and Georgia have until May 15.

Experts caution not to rush to file until you're sure you've pulled together all the relevant forms — and some companies are slow to mail out the relevant 1099s and W-2s.

Electronic filers should expect expect to receive their refund, via direct deposit, within three weeks, the IRS said.

On the bright side: The IRS has postponed a change to its reporting requirements for 1099-ks, which would've caused a tax headache for many.

The agency was also able to hire more help this year, thanks to increased funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, and is aiming to improve call response time for those who dial the agency seeking help. 

There's a lot of room for improvement: Last year, only 13% of the 173 million calls that came into its toll-free number were answered.

Tax refunds may shrink this year

Pandemic-era policies are expiring, leading to smaller refunds.

Taxes

Economy & Business

The housing market is showing signs of life after veering into a dead zone late last year.

Why it matters: These green shoots are a good sign for the economy overall, and run counter to some of the dire predictions made last fall when mortgage rates were skyrocketing.

What's happening:  Home buyers are making peace with higher mortgage rates, and sellers are making peace with the need to cut prices and make concessions.

While home prices will likely keep falling, there's reason to think a recovery in sale activity is already underway.  

By the numbers: Pending home sales were up 3% in December, according to Redfin's proprietary measure. That was the first monthly increase since October 2021. (They're still down 31% since last year.)  

In a report titled, "The Housing Market Has Started to Recover" Redfin also notes that more folks are taking home tours than during the fall.

The market's at a turning point, Taylor Marr, Redfin's deputy chief economist told Axios. 

Zoom out: The shift is all about mortgage rates. They went up so fast, and to such a high level, it was hard for buyers to even keep up. When rates started falling back a bit, some of these prospective buyers perked up.

After peaking at over 7% in November and crushing demand for homes, rates then fell at the fastest pace since 2009, as the market started to feel the Fed was slowing down its rate hikes. 

The average rate on the 30-year mortgage is now 6.13%, per Freddie Mac data out Thursday. That's the lowest level since mid-September.

Some buyers are even able to get rates that start with a 5 — "an important psychological threshold," Redfin notes.

Between the lines: Home buyers and sellers adjusted their expectations. What once seemed high now seems like sort of a deal. 

What they're saying: When Stefanie McFall, an architect in Atlanta, started looking for homes with her husband and kids in the suburbs last March, they were outbid repeatedly — many houses sold for $250,000 over asking. By early fall, they stopped looking.

This year, with mortgage rates turning down, they waded back in. Success! They're closing on a five-bedroom house next month with a 5.5% mortgage — the sellers even covered some closing costs. "That would not have happened last spring," she said.

"We didn’t mind paying a little higher interest rate because it felt like we had a little more buying power," McFall said in a message. The house is likely $100,000 less than it would've been last year, she added.

Eric Morales, a tech worker in Alexandria, Va., just bit the bullet on a 6.3% mortgage rate when he bought a three-bedroom house with his wife. The rate was "painful," but he said he put on his "macro hat" and looked at the last 20 years, and thought: "This isn't so awful."

They were able to negotiate the price down from around $900,000 to $850,000. 

The bottom line: When mortgage rates started climbing last year, reaching levels not seen for decades, the situation looked grim. Observers, even those who knew this wasn't going to be like the '08 crash, braced for the worst.

But the low inventory of homes for sale, as well as a continuing desire from folks for more space to work remotely, is helping to prop up sale volumes.

What to watch: The National Association of Realtors will release its measure of pending home sales, which is more widely used, later this morning.

The housing market wakes from the dead

It's a good sign for the economy overall.

Housing

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="housing market" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/03/housing-market-stuck" data-vars-content-id="aaca6cd4-e0fd-4bb8-aa6b-4d90db7f4422" data-vars-headline="The housing market wakes from the dead" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/03/housing-market-stuck" target="_self">housing market</a> is showing signs of life after veering into a dead zone late last year.Why it matters: These green shoots are a good sign for the economy overall, and run counter to some of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="dire predictions " data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html" data-vars-content-id="aaca6cd4-e0fd-4bb8-aa6b-4d90db7f4422" data-vars-headline="The housing market wakes from the dead" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html" target="_blank">dire predictions </a>made last fall when mortgage rates were skyrocketing.

In a big victory for the fast-food industry, California's secretary of state on Tuesday said that enough signatures were collected to trigger a statewide referendum on the landmark Fast Food Accountability and Standards Recovery Act. 

Why it matters: The law, AB 257, was hailed as groundbreaking by labor advocates as a way to improve working conditions in the fast-food industry when it was signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in September.  

It would establish a council to set industrywide health and safety standards, and potentially set a fast-food minimum wage as high as $22 an hour.

The referendum, at a minimum, delays the law's implementation by more than a year. The vote won't be held until November 2024. 

Opponents spent nearly $14 million on the ballot measure to challenge the law, per California state records. 

What they're saying: The fast-food industry, which has argued the law would put restaurants out of business, and trigger more inflation, celebrated the referendum in a raft of statements. 

"We’re pleased that Californians will get the chance to exercise their constitutional right to vote on this law and will continue to support the operators, small business owners, and workers that make the restaurant industry so important to our customers' lives,” Sean Kennedy, the National Restaurant Association's executive vice president for public affairs, said in a statement.

Advocates said they'll keep fighting for its passage: “Despite fast-food corporations’ efforts to distort the referendum process, we know California voters see through their tricks," Mary Kay Henry, president, Service Employees International Union, said in a statement.

Our thought bubble, via Axios Latino editor Astrid Galván: This is a big blow to Latino fast-food workers, who make up 60% of the workforce, and who helped pass the law. It could also stymie plans for similar laws that advocates planned to introduce in other states.

Groundbreaking California fast-food law heads to statewide referendum and big political fight

It's is a big win for the restaurant industry. The vote won't take place until Nov. 2024.

Dozens of fast-food cooks and cashiers in Los Angeles gather to demand that McDonalds, Starbucks and other chains drop their referendum seeking to overturn AB 257  

Fast-food workers protest the push for a referendum in Los Angeles in November. Photo: Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Labor

In a big victory for the fast-food industry, California&#x27;s secretary of state on <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Tuesday" data-vars-click-url="https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2023/january/23012jh.pdf" data-vars-content-id="e5c5209a-cdc6-4e4b-84cf-d6e3ddd0d71c" data-vars-headline="Groundbreaking California fast-food law heads to statewide referendum and big political fight" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2023/january/23012jh.pdf" target="_blank">Tuesday</a> said that enough signatures were collected to trigger a statewide referendum on the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="landmark" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/01/california-fast-food-bill-marks-pivotal-moment-for-low-wage-workers" data-vars-content-id="e5c5209a-cdc6-4e4b-84cf-d6e3ddd0d71c" data-vars-headline="Groundbreaking California fast-food law heads to statewide referendum and big political fight" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/01/california-fast-food-bill-marks-pivotal-moment-for-low-wage-workers" target="_self">landmark</a> Fast Food Accountability and Standards Recovery Act. Why it matters: The law, AB 257, was hailed as groundbreaking by labor advocates as a way to improve working conditions in the fast-food industry when it was <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="signed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/05/newsom-california-law-low-wage-workers" data-vars-content-id="e5c5209a-cdc6-4e4b-84cf-d6e3ddd0d71c" data-vars-headline="Groundbreaking California fast-food law heads to statewide referendum and big political fight" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/05/newsom-california-law-low-wage-workers" target="_self">signed</a> by Gov. Gavin Newsom in September.

Working from home saved workers around the world an average of 72 minutes in commute time every day in 2021 and 2022. And many of them plowed that time right back into ... working more, according to a new paper published Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

State of play: In the U.S., remote work saved an average of 55 minutes a day, per worker, according to the working paper. The researchers looked at two surveys of employees who worked mainly from home at some point during the pandemic, conducted over the past two years. 

China was the country where people saved the most commute time — 102 minutes on average.

Why it matters: The data underscore that the benefits of remote work flow both to employees and employers. 

40% of workers used the time saved to work on either a primary or secondary job.

34% used the time for leisure activities, including exercise or watching TV, and 11% went to caregiving, for children or others.

Zoom out: The value of the commute time saved is even greater than the numbers suggest, write the paper's authors, for three reasons:

Remote work saves money. (No more spending on gas or trains or buses.)

Workers also spend less time grooming and getting ready for work when they're remote.

Working from home gives people more autonomy over their time during the day.

Yes, but: Insert all your anti-remote work arguments here. Do we really need to rehash them? 

Remote work saved workers 72 minutes per day, study finds

Many plowed that time savings into...more work

Remote work

Working from home saved workers around the world an average of 72 minutes in commute time every day in 2021 and 2022. And many of them plowed that time right back into ... working more, according to a new paper published Monday by the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="National Bureau of Economic Research" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30866/w30866.pdf" data-vars-content-id="e94aff19-ecfc-49b8-80e9-8187927419d4" data-vars-headline="Remote work saved workers 72 minutes per day, study finds" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30866/w30866.pdf" target="_blank">National Bureau of Economic Research</a>.State of play: In the U.S., remote work saved an average of 55 minutes a day, per worker, according to the working paper. The researchers looked at two surveys of employees who worked mainly from home at some point during the pandemic, conducted over the past two years.

You can call it quiet quitting or whatever buzzword you like, but the bottom line is workers in the U.S. just aren't that happy. Only 32% of employees said they were "actively engaged" at work, or feeling passionate about their jobs, down from a high of 36% in 2020, according to a Gallup report out Wednesday, which averaged survey results across 2022.

Why it matters: Changing requirements around remote and hybrid work and a lack of communication with managers are causing people to psychologically disengage, with increasing numbers feeling like no one cares about them. 

This year, concerns around layoffs are making the situation worse.

Go deeper: 18% of employees said in 2022 they were "actively disengaged," i.e., disgruntled and disloyal, the highest that number has been since 2013.

The remaining half of workers are just doing the bare minimum to get by, says Jim Harter, chief workplace scientist at Gallup.

How it works: Gallup has been tracking what it calls "employee engagement" since 2000, using quarterly surveys of around 15,000 full- and part-time employees.

It asks a set of 12 questions about overall job satisfaction, well-being and other things. 

There were a few areas where the decline in engagement was most noticeable: With more employees reporting that they don't know what's expected of them, don't feel cared about, don't see opportunities to learn and grow, and don't feel connected to their employer's "mission."

State of play: Young employees are feeling the most disconnected. Engagement for those under 35 decreased by four percentage points; while active disengagement went up by the same amount.

Engagement fell across the board, no matter if someone worked remotely, in a hybrid arrangement, or on-site. 

Of note: Workers who were in jobs that could be done remotely, but were forced to work on-site saw an increase of 7 points in active disengagement. 

1 big idea: A crucial move that managers can make to improve engagement is holding simple, one-on-one meetings with each direct report. One recent study found they led to a 54% increase in engagement. 

"It might sound simple, but there's some low-hanging fruit out there that gets overlooked," says Harter.

Americans are increasingly disgruntled at work

There's at least one simple solution for this.

You can call it <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="quiet quitting" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/21/quiet-quitting-gen-z-work-jobs-minimum" data-vars-content-id="f44e912d-5862-49d0-97d9-7008827ad016" data-vars-headline="Americans are increasingly disgruntled at work" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/21/quiet-quitting-gen-z-work-jobs-minimum" target="_self">quiet quitting</a> or whatever buzzword you like, but the bottom line is workers in the U.S. just aren&#x27;t that happy. Only 32% of employees said they were &quot;actively engaged&quot; at work, or feeling passionate about their jobs, down from a high of 36% in 2020, according to a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Gallup report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.gallup.com/workplace/468233/employee-engagement-needs-rebound-2023.aspx" data-vars-content-id="f44e912d-5862-49d0-97d9-7008827ad016" data-vars-headline="Americans are increasingly disgruntled at work" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.gallup.com/workplace/468233/employee-engagement-needs-rebound-2023.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup report</a> out Wednesday, which averaged survey results across 2022.Why it matters: Changing requirements around remote and hybrid work and a lack of communication with managers are causing people to psychologically disengage, with increasing numbers feeling like no one cares about them.

Emily Peck

Stories

The housing market wakes from the dead

Groundbreaking California fast-food law heads to statewide referendum and big political fight

Americans are increasingly disgruntled at work

Tax refunds may shrink this year

Remote work saved workers 72 minutes per day, study finds

Newsletter editions

🌱 It's alive

💰 Investors are bonding

😰 Anxious and disgruntled

💻 WFH ripples

🤹 Debt ceiling circus