Trump aides foresee Iran endgame divide: "Israel doesn't hate the chaos"
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Trump and Netanyahu at the White House in September. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
President Trump and Bibi Netanyahu have spoken almost every day since the war began. Trump told Axios that they're "working great together."
- But U.S. officials realize the two countries' endgames and risk tolerance may diverge as the 19-day-old war continues.
Why it matters: Several U.S. officials described Trump as the most bullish person in the White House on going to war with Iran. He also appears more aligned with Netanyahu's maximalist objectives than many of his aides.
Officials in Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran all know any split between the allies could define the outcome of the war.
- Three of President Trump's advisers tell Axios they believe he'll want to end major operations before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
- But Trump and Netanyahu currently appear closer than ever, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis makes it unlikely the U.S. will seek to pull back any time soon.
The big picture: U.S. and Israeli military and intelligence services are moving in concert, though their targets vary.
- While the U.S. is focusing almost exclusively on military targets, Israel is also conducting high-level assassinations and taking other steps intended to lay the groundwork for regime change.
- Senior U.S. officials say that while Trump would view regime change as a bonus, he intends to end the war when his core military objectives — decimating Iran's missile program, nuclear program, navy and proxy funding — are met.
- "Israel has other focuses and we know that," a White House official said.
- "Israel is going to try to kill their new leader. They're much more interested in that than we are," another official said.
Case in point: In the opening strike, Israel focused on decapitating the Iranian leadership, while the U.S. focused on targeting missiles and drones aimed at its bases in the region.
- Israel has continued to undertake a broader range of operations than the U.S.
- Israel's Mossad has even attempted to stoke a ground invasion from northern Iraq by Iranian Kurds, though it has yet to materialize.
The intrigue: The only clear point of friction over more than two weeks of war came when Israel bombed Iranian oil storage tanks.
- Stabilizing the global oil market is a bigger priority for the U.S. than for Israel, officials say. The White House asked Israel not to target oil again without a clear green light from Washington.
- "Israel doesn't hate the chaos. We do. We want stability. Netanyahu? Not so much, especially in Iran. They hate the Iranian government a lot more than we do," a White House official said.
Behind the scenes: Trump and Netanyahu have otherwise looked joined at the hip. The 12-day war last June significantly upgraded their relationship.
- Trump saw that war as a big success and gave Netanyahu significant credit. In the aftermath, Trump also launched his ongoing campaign to get Netanyahu a pardon and end his corruption trial.
- While some White House officials have been suspicious of the Israeli prime minister and his intentions in recent months, Trump has seemed more in sync with Netanyahu than ever.
Zoom in: While some analysts questioned Israel's decision to assassinate Iran's security chief Ali Larijani on Tuesday, arguing he'd be more inclined than other senior Iranians to cut an eventual peace deal with the U.S., Trump expressed satisfaction.
- Netanyahu has made it clear that more is coming. He even showed U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee a "punch card" he's been carrying of Iranian leaders Israel has assassinated, or intends to soon.
Driving the news: The resignation of National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent on Tuesday over claims Israel had goaded Trump into an unnecessary war laid bare a nagging political problem for the administration.
- "We are cognizant of the appearance of doing Israel's bidding. We're not. But we understand the perception and it's not helpful," a senior Trump adviser told Axios prior to Kent's resignation.
What to watch: Trump has admitted Israel's aims could be "a little bit different" than his. "You know, they're there and we're very far away," he told reporters on Sunday.
- European officials said Secretary of State Rubio acknowledged in several phone calls with his European counterparts that there are differences in the U.S. and Israeli objectives.
- When asked in a press briefing last week if Iran will have to adhere to the demands of both the U.S. and Israel for the war to end, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the U.S. will make that call. "Our objectives are our objectives. We'll set the tempo of when those are met."
