National

The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility of mass migration from Haiti by expanding a migrant center on Guantanamo Bay and looking into the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos for temporary new holding sites, Axios has learned. 

Why it matters: Haiti has been beset by gang violence, fuel shortages and a recent cholera outbreak. For months, the administration has held informal planning meetings on how to hold potentially hundreds of migrants at a time, before quickly returning them to the beleaguered island.

By the numbers: There was a significant uptick in the number of Haitians interdicted at sea last year, with 7,175 Haitians interdicted in fiscal year 2022 compared to 1,527 the year before — and just 418 during FY 2020, according to Coast Guard data provided to Axios.

A National Security Council spokesperson told Axios "the number of Haitians interdicted at sea has significantly decreased in recent months" and "no decisions have been made." 

State of play: Gang control of Haiti's ports has wreaked havoc on the island, making it difficult for people to obtain fuel, water and food. The gang crisis has made it more difficult for the U.S. to quickly return Haitians interdicted at sea. 

Officials have had to deport interdicted migrants by plane to Haitian airports — first taking them to the Migrant Operation Center (MOC) on Guantanamo Bay, which is jointly overseen by the Department of Homeland Security, Department of Defense and the State Department, according to two U.S. officials and internal government documents obtained by Axios. 

One U.S. official, however, told Axios the government is currently able to return Haitian migrants at seaports as well.

Zoom in: Use of the MOC is not new. For decades, migrants interdicted at sea who fear persecution at home have been held there while officials search for a third country to host them.

The migrant center is separate from the part of Guantanamo Bay that houses the infamous U.S. military prison. Still, the use of the base for migration has been viewed with skepticism.

NBC News first reported on the administration's planning for a surge of Haitian migrants, as well as reaction from migrant rights advocates who hope to avoid the use of Guantanamo Bay. 

"The U.S. government always does contingency planning out of an abundance of caution, and for a wide range of potential scenarios," the NSC spokesperson told Axios.

What to watch: The government is already making efforts to expand capacity to hold up to 400 migrants at a time.

The Department of Homeland Security has requested that the Department of Defense be prepared — within 48 hours of being called on — to set up tents to accommodate up to 1,000 Haitians on the base, according to documents viewed by Axios. 

At the same time, DHS and the State Department are considering alternative locations to hold Haitians before they can be flown back to Port-au-Prince — including the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos — to avoid expanding the site on Guantanamo Bay.

On the ground: The U.N.'s International Organization for Migration provides assistance to Haitians who are deported back to the country. 

A U.N. Haiti spokesperson told Axios the agency has been looking for ways to replenish supplies for returnees — such as food, hygiene kits and cellphones to contact family members —  in "anticipation of departures and interdictions at sea." 

The security situation has made it more difficult for IOM staff in Haiti to reach airports, IOM offices or other repatriation sites.

"IOM staff is working on the frontlines to respond to the holistic necessities of returnees," Daniele Febei, IOM head of operations in Haiti, told Axios in a statement. "IOM teams in Haiti continue to raise awareness of migrants on the risks related to irregular migration and inform them on the legal migration channels.”

The big picture: The use of the Bahamas or the expanded use of Guantanamo Bay would be the latest in a long string of controversial U.S. policies on Haitian migration. 

The U.S. has used Guantanamo Bay to hold migrants interdicted at sea since the 1970s, according to Migration Policy Institute's Muzaffar Chishti.

In 1981, then-President Reagan signed an agreement with the Haitian government allowing the U.S. to interdict Haitian ships suspected of carrying undocumented immigrants. The move was harshly criticized by some at the time.

Then came the 1994 Haitian migrant crisis. Tens of thousands of Haitians and Cubans were kept in a makeshift refugee camp on the U.S. base in Cuba.

As recently as September 2021, tens of thousands of Haitians arrived at the U.S.-Mexico border in Del Rio, where they formed their own migrant camp. The Biden administration leveraged the Trump-era Title 42, a policy originally instigated by the pandemic, to promptly return thousands of them back to Haiti — without a chance at asylum. 

The bottom line: Despite the administration's outspoken concern about the current situation in Haiti, its planning on the migration front is intended to prevent Haitians from reaching the U.S. mainland and return them to the island as quickly as possible, according to two government officials familiar with ongoing conversations and internal documents. 

Biden eyes expanded Guantanamo migrant center as Haiti crisis deepens

Haiti has been beset by gang violence, fuel shortages and a recent cholera outbreak.

People flee their homes during an attack by armed gangs in the Carrefour Feuille neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti

People flee their homes during an attack by armed gangs in the Carrefour Feuille neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Photo: Richard Pierrin/AFP via Getty Images

Haiti

Immigration

The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility of mass migration from Haiti by expanding a migrant center on Guantanamo Bay and looking into the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos for temporary new holding sites, Axios has learned. Why it matters: Haiti has been beset by gang violence, fuel shortages and a recent cholera outbreak. For months, the administration has held informal planning meetings on how to hold potentially hundreds of migrants at a time, before quickly returning them to the beleaguered island.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Tuesday threatened a potential “impeachment inquiry” into Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the U.S.-Mexico border if the Biden administration official does not resign.

Why it matters: The comments reinforced McCarthy's past hints about a prospective Mayorkas impeachment effort  — a nod to the GOP conference’s right flank as it threatens to scuttle his bid for speaker.

Several members of the right-wing Freedom Caucus have been threatening to deny McCarthy pivotal votes when the House selects a speaker in January — and all are co-sponsors of an impeachment resolution against Mayorkas.

The remarks attracted immediate rebuke from Biden administration officials who denounced the event as a "political stunt."

Mayorkas "has no plans to resign," DHS spokesperson Marsha Espinosa told Axios.

What they’re saying: During a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, McCarthy said Mayorkas "cannot and must not" remain in his post, and that if he doesn't resign, Republicans "will investigate every order, every action and every failure.” 

Those probes, he said, “will determine whether we can begin [an] impeachment inquiry.” Asked what specific crimes could lead to impeachment, McCarthy said: “The orders, lying to the American public, withholding ICE from doing their jobs, not following through with what the laws on the books are today.”

McCarthy pointed to Mayorkas stating at a congressional hearing this month that the border is secure as an example of him lying.

"We never do impeachment for political purposes. We're having an investigation. We know exactly what Mayorkas has done," McCarthy said. "If the investigation leads to an impeachment inquiry, we will follow through."

Zoom in: McCarthy rattled off other grievances against Mayorkas, including the Biden administration's efforts to end Trump-era border policies, the apprehension of terror suspects at the border and a spike in fentanyl trafficking.

The other side: "Secretary Mayorkas is proud to advance the noble mission of this Department, support its extraordinary workforce, and serve the American people.  He has no plans to resign," DHS' Espinosa said in a statement.

The department "will continue our work to enforce our laws and secure our border, while building a safe, orderly, and humane immigration system," she said.

Espinosa said lawmakers "can do better than point the finger at someone else," calling on them to "come to the table and work on solutions for our broken system and outdated laws, which have not been overhauled in over 40 years.”

By the numbers: The past two fiscal years set new records for border crossings, with more than 2 million for 2022.

The numbers are so high in part due to an increase in migrants attempting to cross multiple times, which advocates and experts attribute to the ongoing use of a Trump-era policy allowing border officials to immediately expel migrants and asylum seekers.

The Biden administration has also grappled with a surge in Venezuelans, Cubans and Nicaraguans coming across the border — people who are not easily returned to their home countries due to frosty diplomatic relations.

A DHS spokesperson said the administration has "managed an unprecedented number of noncitizens seeking to enter the United States, interdicted more drugs, and disrupted more smuggling operations than ever before."

The backdrop: The House’s most right-wing members have been agitating for impeachment against President Biden and several of his officials since the first day of his administration.

GOP leadership has carefully avoided endorsing those efforts.

However, impeaching Mayorkas has been the most mainstream position — the conservative Republican Study Committee, which has more than 150 members, has been laying the groundwork for it, Axios reported in April.

Still, leadership is walking a careful line — House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) declined to commit to impeaching Mayorkas during a closed-door GOP conference meeting last week, according to a source in the room. 

Reality check: The House GOP is expected to have a majority of just a handful of seats, and several of the newly elected House Republicans from Biden districts have expressed distaste for the idea of impeachment, Axios reported last week.

That math could make passing an impeachment resolution in the House — let alone the Senate, where it would surely fail — extremely difficult.

McCarthy threatens potential Mayorkas “impeachment inquiry”

DHS said Mayorkas "has no plans to resign."

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy wearing a blue suit jacket, white shirt and red tie, speaks in front of a blue backdrop at the Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting in Las Vegas. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Photo: Ellen Schmidt/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Kevin McCarthy

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Tuesday threatened a potential “impeachment inquiry” into Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the U.S.-Mexico border if the Biden administration official does not resign.Why it matters: The comments reinforced McCarthy&#x27;s past hints about a prospective Mayorkas impeachment effort — a nod to the GOP conference’s right flank as it threatens to scuttle his <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="bid for speaker" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/house-gop-kevin-mccarthy-speaker" data-vars-content-id="7b12ee12-485e-4107-b211-81429b57a420" data-vars-headline="McCarthy threatens potential Mayorkas “impeachment inquiry”" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/house-gop-kevin-mccarthy-speaker" target="_self">bid for speaker</a>.

Top U.S. officials are considering drastic measures — including barring some asylum seekers and surging prosecutions of illegal border crossings — in preparation for an end to the pandemic-era Title 42 border policy, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Some of the ideas under serious consideration echo controversial immigration policies from the Trump administration. Others could expand legal avenues for migrants and asylum seekers in the region to enter the U.S.

That some of these approaches are being considered at the highest levels of government reflects the Biden administration's desperation to get a handle on unprecedented efforts to cross the U.S.-Mexico border.

Top officials from the White House National Security Council, Department of Homeland Security, State Department and Justice Department have been involved in the discussions. Some of the potential actions would require cooperation from multiple agencies, according to two U.S. sources familiar with internal discussions.

Driving the news: A federal judge is forcing border officials to stop using Title 42 on Dec. 21.

Catch up quick: The Trump-era policy — continued under the Biden administration — cites public health concerns to allow Border Patrol to immediately expel migrants at the border without the chance for asylum.

U.S. officials anticipate the loss of the tool and the narrative that there are "open borders" will lead to a jump in the already-high number of border crossings. Preparations for this scenario have been underway.

Actions to expand legal pathways for migrants and asylum seekers and crack down on people who do not enter the U.S. at legal entry points were discussed in detail as recently as a Cabinet-head level meeting on Monday, according to the two sources familiar.

The intrigue: The planning comes as House Republicans gear up for investigations into the administration's handling of the border — and a potential impeachment inquiry into DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

What they're saying: "As we prepare to transition to the next phase of our work to manage the border in a safe, orderly, and humane way, the Department of Homeland Security will continue to double down on these proven strategies," a Biden official told Axios, listing various efforts by the administration to tackle irregular migration.

"At the same time, we’re eyes wide open to the reality that, despite all the progress we’ve made, we’re continuing to work within the constraints of a decades-old broken immigration system that Republican officials refuse to allow us to fix," the official added.

Details: Officials are moving toward a multi-pronged approach involving both carrot-and-stick domestic measures and continued diplomatic requests for countries to do more on asylum and border controls. Two measures being considered appear similar to controversial Trump policies. 

One asylum proposal would bar single adults who illegally cross the border and have not first applied for legal pathways offered by the U.S. or protection in other countries they traveled through. They would instead be placed in the expedited removal process.

There would be exceptions for extreme circumstances, although the specifics of those exceptions are unclear.

Another proposal calls for a surge in criminal prosecutions for single adults who have done nothing other than illegally cross the border — with a focus on those who evade Border Patrol. One source, however, said this would be a tough sell for the Justice Department.

To incentivize people to apply and enter the U.S. legally, officials are looking at raising the 24,000 person cap on the number of Venezuelans who can be paroled via a new process started last month. The process forces back to Mexico those who instead attempt to cross the border illegally.

The perceived success of this program has inspired much of the administration's planning for post-Title 42, sources said, indicating the program is set to continue even without Title 42 as the mechanism for returning people to Mexico.

The number of Venezuelans attempting to cross the border has dropped significantly since its implementation, according to DHS officials.

Officials are looking to expand the program to Nicaraguans, who like Venezuelans are often difficult to return to their home country due to frosty government relations. Any expansion would greatly depend on cooperation with Mexico or other countries to host people the U.S. kicks back.

Officials are also eyeing an increase of refugee resettlements from the Western Hemisphere as another legal pathway for migrants to pursue before they can access the asylum process at the border.

Lastly, the administration wants to use an app owned and managed by Customs and Border Protection to allow migrants to schedule a meeting at a legal entry point ahead of time, according to one source with direct knowledge of the idea.

Reality check: The volume of people already attempting to enter the U.S. at the southern border will complicate any efforts to overhaul policy.

Limited space and resources at Border Patrol stations, detention spaces or Mexican shelters could still prompt officials to release people into the U.S. while they await lengthy immigration proceedings.

Some of the proposals eyed by the administration would require significant resources and coordination with foreign governments to get off the ground.

The bottom line: Stretched-thin U.S. agencies find themselves preparing for another potential surge of migrants and asylum seekers at the border. 

Meanwhile, policymakers are yet again trying to thread the needle — enforcing order and immigration laws while creating a humane system for those seeking humanitarian protection.

Scoop: Biden administration eyes border overhaul as Title 42 ends

Some of the ideas echo controversial policies from the Trump administration.

Border patrol agents take people into custody next to the U.S.-Mexico border fence

Border patrol agents take people into custody next to the U.S.-Mexico border fence. Photo: David McNew/Getty Images

Illegal immigration

GOP states seek to keep Title 42 border policy

 A view from the camp majorly populated by Venezuelan migrants in front of the US Border Patrol operations post across the Rio Bravo River in Mexico 

 A view from the camp majorly populated by Venezuelan migrants. Photo: Carlos Ernesto Escalona/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Border security

Fifteen Republican-led states are pushing a last-minute legal effort to keep alive a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="controversial COVID-19 policy" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/07/28/biden-border-policies-rebuild-that-wall" data-vars-content-id="852a0c3f-74a7-4a21-983c-19b1bcf69c05" data-vars-headline="GOP states seek to keep Title 42 border policy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/07/28/biden-border-policies-rebuild-that-wall" target="_self">controversial COVID-19 policy</a> that cites threats to public health to quickly expel migrants and asylum seekers, according to a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="new court filing" data-vars-click-url="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.225870/gov.uscourts.dcd.225870.168.0_1.pdf" data-vars-content-id="852a0c3f-74a7-4a21-983c-19b1bcf69c05" data-vars-headline="GOP states seek to keep Title 42 border policy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.225870/gov.uscourts.dcd.225870.168.0_1.pdf" target="_blank">new court filing</a>.Why it matters: Title 42 — used 2.4 million times over the course of more than two and a half years — is slated to end Dec. 21 after U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="last week" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/judge-immigration-title-42-blocked" data-vars-content-id="852a0c3f-74a7-4a21-983c-19b1bcf69c05" data-vars-headline="GOP states seek to keep Title 42 border policy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/judge-immigration-title-42-blocked" target="_self">last week</a> ruled it unlawful.

Data: NCSL; Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

Half of all state legislatures are on track to have veto-proof majorities, handing the party in power a historic level of control over elections, redistricting, abortion rights, gun laws and other major policies.

Why it matters: Supermajorities often boast sweeping power to amend state constitutions and overrule governors. In Wisconsin, where Republicans fell barely short of a supermajority in the midterms, a governor's veto is the only check standing in the way of a statewide abortion ban.

Between the lines: The balance of power in state governments could be even more critical with the Supreme Court poised to weigh in on the "independent state legislature theory," a once-fringe doctrine that would give legislatures sole control over election and redistricting rules.

After the 2020 election, former President Trump and his allies sought to exploit the theory to allow GOP-controlled legislatures to overrule the popular vote in key battleground states.

Lawmakers in Kansas and North Carolina who have gerrymandered maps to favor Republicans have also cited the theory in an effort to block state courts from intervening. 

What they're saying: Tom Wolf, deputy director at the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program, called the independent state legislature theory and expanded veto-proof majorities "a perfect storm" that would erode "democratic controls and accountability for actions of state legislatures."

At its core, the independent state legislature theory "is about melting down the system of checks and balances at the state level that helps ensure that we have democratic, representative and responsive government," Wolf said. 

What to watch: Before the midterms, 21 states had veto-proof majorities, a vote margin that varies by state. At least 25 are poised to have supermajorities.

That would give Republicans veto-proof majorities in 17 states and Democrats in nine, including New York, where results are still coming in.

Vermont, Delaware, Illinois, Florida and Ohio are projected to be added to the list, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

While supermajorities aren't always necessary when the party in power also holds the governor's mansion, even the threat of a veto "transfers significant policymaking power to state lawmakers," NCSL's Ben Williams writes.

Vermont, Kentucky and Kansas have veto-proof majorities along with a governor of the opposing party, increasing the possibility that the legislature would have the opportunity to flex its veto override, according to Ballotpedia.

By the numbers: After a decade of Republican dominance, Democrats finally started clawing back control of state governments in this year's midterms. With results still coming in, Republicans control 57 out of 98 state chambers, while Democrats control 40.

Alaska results are still pending, and Nebraska's unicameral chamber is nonpartisan, though unofficially controlled by Republicans.

Democrats grew the number of states where they have total control — both legislative chambers and the governor's seat — from 14 to 17. They also have total control in the District of Columbia. Republicans' state trifectas declined from 24 to 22, with Alaska still pending.

10 states currently have split control — down from 12 before the election.

The growing, unchecked power of state legislatures

Majority parties in state legislatures will have more power than ever.

Midterms SEO

Half of all state legislatures are on track to have veto-proof majorities, handing the party in power a historic level of control over elections, redistricting, abortion rights, gun laws and other major policies.Why it matters: Supermajorities often boast sweeping power to amend state constitutions and overrule governors. In Wisconsin, where Republicans <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fell barely short" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-midterms-2022/card/wisconsin-democrats-appear-to-have-prevented-a-gop-supermajority-in-state-legislature-4kTiZrIWMZXRtJYIL1uL" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-midterms-2022/card/wisconsin-democrats-appear-to-have-prevented-a-gop-supermajority-in-state-legislature-4kTiZrIWMZXRtJYIL1uL" target="_blank">fell barely short</a> of a supermajority in the midterms, a governor&#x27;s veto is the only check standing in the way of a statewide abortion ban.

Stef W. Kight

Stories

Scoop: Biden administration eyes border overhaul as Title 42 ends

The growing, unchecked power of state legislatures

McCarthy threatens potential Mayorkas “impeachment inquiry”

GOP states seek to keep Title 42 border policy

Biden eyes expanded Guantanamo migrant center as Haiti crisis deepens