1 big thing: GOP goes all-in on FBI gamble

2. 🤔 Trump: "I don't like the term 'woke'"

3. 🇺🇦 Senate defense hawks revolt

4. 📸 Biden takes a spill

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,093 words ... 4 minutes.

⚡Scoop: Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio is telling GOP donors that it's a "myth" that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is more electable than the former president, according to a private memo obtained by Axios' Alex Thompson.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

Sneak Peek

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

blue

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

Standard

1 big thing: Republicans bet big on "the education election"

Illustration of an apple with an I Voted sticker.

2. ⚖️ Biden slams Supreme Court — but nixes expansion

3. 🔎 GOP sharply escalates Hunter Biden probe

4. 🇺🇦 Pence in Ukraine

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,094 words ... 4 minutes.

🇮🇷 Situational awareness: The Biden administration's special envoy for Iran Rob Malley has been placed on leave due to an investigation affecting his security clearance, Malley confirmed to Axios' Barak Ravid.

1 big thing: Inside the GOP's "weaponization" war

2. 🐘 Abortion stance trips up Scott launch

3. 👀 Focus groups: "Pro-life" pushback

4. 🇮🇪 Joe O'Biden welcomed home

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 989 words ... 4 minutes.

💰 Situational awareness: House Republicans are weighing whether to extend their balanced budget proposal from 10 to 15 years to make spending cuts easier — and whether to create a panel to explore changes to Social Security and Medicare.

whether to extend their balanced budget proposal

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was copy edited by Brad Bonhall.

1 big thing: GOP's whistleblower fireworks

2. 🔎 Border crossings plummet as GOP tees up impeachment

3. 💰 Vulnerable House Republicans maintain fundraising edge

4. 🕒 Julie Su's new record

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,018 words ... 4 minutes.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Patriotism on the run

2. Crisis of morality

3. Changing family values

4. ⛽ Stat for the road

🇺🇸 Welcome back to a special holiday edition of Sneak Peek, in which Axios data whiz Stef Kight is here to dig deeper on three social trends that may help explain the state of American politics — and where it's heading.

Smart Brevity™ count: 675 words ... 2.5 minutes.

🎆 Enjoy the fireworks: We'll be off tomorrow and back in your inbox on Wednesday. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

National

A Taylor Swift Instagram post drove record-breaking web traffic to Vote.org this week and helped the site register more than 35,000 new voters.

Why it matters: It's another example of the pop star's outsized influence on American life, first boosting the economy and now the voter base.

"Our site was averaging 13,000 users every 30 minutes — a number that Taylor Swift would be proud of," Andrea Hailey, CEO of Vote.org, said in a statement. (13 is Swift's famously lucky number.)

By the numbers: 35,252 people newly registered to vote on Tuesday — a 23% jump from last year's National Voter Registration Day, and the largest since the 2020 general election year, according to Vote.org.

There was a 115% increase in 18-year-olds registering compared to last year.

157,041 eligible voters visited the site.

Between the lines: Swift's push comes as the nonpartisan nonprofit launches a campaign to register 8 million voters before Election Day 2024.

They aim to target young people via efforts on college campuses, with social media influencers and other tactics, according to a press release.

What she's saying: "I've been so lucky to see so many of you guys at my US shows recently," Swift wrote in a message on her Instagram story on Tuesday, linking to Vote.org's site.

"I've heard you raise your voices, and I know how powerful they are. Make sure you're ready to use them in our elections this year!"

Taylor Swift snags 35,000 new registered voters

And Vote.org received record-breaking web traffic.

aylor Swift performs onstage during the "Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour" 

Taylor Swift performs onstage during her "Eras Tour." Photo: Hector Vivas/TAS23/Getty Images for TAS Rights Management

2024 elections

A <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Taylor Swift" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/11/taylor-swift-traffic" data-vars-content-id="0ad39712-c44b-4a16-8d30-9c79deabd748" data-vars-headline="Taylor Swift snags 35,000 new registered voters" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/11/taylor-swift-traffic" target="_self">Taylor Swift</a> Instagram post drove record-breaking web traffic to Vote.org this week and helped the site register more than 35,000 new voters.Why it matters: It&#x27;s another example of the pop star&#x27;s outsized influence on American life, first <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="boosting the economy" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/12/taylor-swift-economy-eras-tour" data-vars-content-id="0ad39712-c44b-4a16-8d30-9c79deabd748" data-vars-headline="Taylor Swift snags 35,000 new registered voters" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/12/taylor-swift-economy-eras-tour" target="_self">boosting the economy</a> and now the voter base.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Chicago

Axios Chicago

Denver

Axios Denver

A surge in new migrants is colliding with the U.S.' housing crisis, and even putting a minor dent in the shelter problem is costing state and local governments millions.

Why it matters: Cities simply don't have enough affordable homes, enough shelters or enough money to help everyone who needs it, straining scarce resources and leaving thousands of people out on the street.

The big picture: Soaring housing costs and the end of some pandemic-era safety nets have fueled an affordable housing shortage, causing homelessness to rise in many cities. 

Homelessness in the U.S. had a record spike from 2022 to 2023, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

Now, state and local officials are also scrambling to house thousands of migrants arriving from the border.

What they're saying: "We need more units. We need to confront the broader housing crisis," New York City Comptroller Brad Lander tells Axios in an interview.

"If we can help folks that have been in shelter a long time get housing subsidies, and if we can help asylum seekers get work authorizations ... they won't be competing for the same units," he adds.

Zoom in: New York City is legally required to provide shelter to anyone who requests it. The city was caring for nearly 60,000 migrants and asylum seekers at the beginning of September, according to the comptroller's office.

Migrants accounted for more than half of the city's shelter population, according to a report released this month.

It just announced a lease of a World War II-era airfield as an emergency shelter site.

Chicago homeless advocates estimate the city has more than 68,000 unhoused people, in addition to nearly 9,500 migrants.

City officials tell Axios they expect migrant support efforts to cost more than a quarter of a billion dollars this year. Local advocates say that's more than they've ever seen deployed toward the local homeless population, though a city official told a community meeting this summer that homelessness resources aren't being diverted to aid migrants.

"Chicago's severely underfunded homelessness system has led to fighting for scarce resources," the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless says in a statement released to Axios.

"We should not be pitting Black and Brown communities against each other. We must and can do better."

Denver is grappling with more than 1,300 migrants in dedicated shelters, while others have turned to homeless encampments.

Caring for migrants has cost the city more than $24 million. It has also used federal dollars to bus newcomers elsewhere.

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey estimated the state is spending $45 million monthly to shelter unhoused people and migrants.

The number of families in state shelters reached a new all-time high of 6,528 last week — nearly half of them in hotels or motels.

Washington, D.C., established an office dedicated to migrants in 2022 in an effort to avoid overwhelming its homeless social services.

By next month, D.C. likely will have spent $55.8 million this year on the crisis, with $9 million covered by a FEMA grant, the city tells Axios.

Between the lines: The colliding crises have made for a politically tense issue, often pitting cities against their suburbs.

Some efforts to increase housing — including zoning changes to build lower-cost suburban units — have failed in New York and Colorado amid local pushback.

Officials in suburban Boston cities say they were caught off guard by the state's decision to place migrants in their communities and have asked for more funding and transparency.

What we're watching: It could get worse. Border cities have long had systems to handle migrant influxes — but even they have been overwhelmed and expect it to happen again. 

El Paso has twice in the past year seen hundreds sleeping on the street due to maxed-out shelters.

Opportunity Center for the Homeless deputy director John Martin tells Axios the city is preparing for a "third wave," with dozens of migrants already camping outside.

Many of the newcomers will likely move to other major cities. Martin acknowledges those cities' challenges but says, "To me, it's a shared responsibility."

The bottom line: When populations feel pitted against one another, Lander says, "you can wind up stoking flames that can be dangerous ... I think there's a real risk that the flames of xenophobia get fanned."

Axios Boston's Steph Solis and Axios D.C.'s Cuneyt Dil contributed reporting. 

Go deeper: Blue state migrant crisis sparks political disaster for Biden

Blue state migrant crisis sparks political disaster for Biden

Migrant surge makes U.S. housing crisis worse

Balancing services for foreigners and natives experiencing homelessness has proven difficult.

Photo illustration of a collage of key shapes, a family of four holding hands and abstract textures.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Migrants

Immigration

A <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="surge" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/10/scenes-from-border-chaos-desperation" data-vars-content-id="141fb877-58e3-4ccb-8d1f-7b655113e581" data-vars-headline="Migrant surge makes U.S. housing crisis worse" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/10/scenes-from-border-chaos-desperation" target="_self">surge</a> in new migrants is colliding with the U.S.&#x27; housing crisis, and even putting a minor dent in the shelter problem is costing state and local governments millions.Why it matters: Cities simply don&#x27;t have enough affordable homes, enough shelters or enough money to help everyone who needs it, straining scarce resources and leaving thousands of people out on the street.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) has voted against the majority of her party 18% of the time since the start of this Congress — more than any other freshman representative or senator, according to Quorum data.

Why it matters: Voting against one's party can be politically risky — or a political asset for swing-seat lawmakers seeking to showcase their independence. The stakes are even higher with such narrow majorities governing both the House and Senate.

Gluesenkamp Perez is one of the most vulnerable Democrats going into 2024. She has voted with Republicans on numerous occasions — including to block President Biden's student loan forgiveness initiative.

By the numbers: Seven of the top 10 freshman members to vote against their party the most are Republicans, including Sens. Eric Schmitt (Mo.) and J.D. Vance (Ohio).

The list includes two House Republicans who initially held out on voting for Kevin McCarthy for House speaker at the start of the Congress: Reps. Eli Crane (Ariz.) and Anna Luna (Fla.).

It also includes Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) who has resisted Republican calls to resign after his indictment on fraud charges.

Go deeper: A House freshman class like no other

block President Biden's student loan forgiveness

Charted: Congress' most rebellious freshman lawmakers

Voting against your party can be politically risky, especially for a newcomer.

Congress

<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/13/marie-gluesenkamp-perez-wins-washington-3rd-election-results" data-vars-content-id="1c2daae0-9ff0-42c0-a5a5-f908134f6ac9" data-vars-headline="Charted: Congress&#x27; most rebellious freshman lawmakers" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/13/marie-gluesenkamp-perez-wins-washington-3rd-election-results" target="_self">Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez</a> (D-Wash.) has voted against the majority of her party 18% of the time since the start of this Congress — more than any other freshman representative or senator, according to Quorum data.Why it matters: Voting against one&#x27;s party can be politically risky — or a political asset for swing-seat lawmakers seeking to showcase their independence. The stakes are even higher with such narrow majorities governing both the House and Senate.

More than half of American adults say a shutdown of the federal government would affect them personally — and 68% say the threat of one decreases their trust in the government, a new survey says.

Why it matters: The survey points to the disarray that would ripple through the nation if House Republicans can't settle on a deal to fund the government by the Sept. 30 deadline.

Democrats (65%) were more likely than Republicans (46%) to say they'd personally be affected by a shutdown, according to the survey by the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service.

Zoom in: The survey lands as congressional offices have begun preparing for a shutdown, the White House is warning about the impact on the economy and national security — and trust in the government already is near record low levels.

A shutdown would risk depleting the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) disaster relief fund, halt scientific research and delay food inspections by the FDA, the Biden administration warned.

Hundreds of thousands of federal workers would see paychecks interrupted, and a range of health programs could be affected.

Air travel could become a bigger headache: During the 2018-2019 government shutdown, thousands of TSA agents declined to show up for work, delaying travelers nationwide.

A shutdown would freeze the FAA's training of more than 2,600 new air traffic controllers who are being brought on to address controller shortages across the country, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told Congress on Wednesday.

The new survey also reflects Americans' frustrations with lawmakers who block military and government appointments.

64% of those polled said they do not think U.S. senators should block nominations of top officials to make a political statement.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) has waged a months-long blockade against hundreds of nominations for top military positions to protest a Pentagon policy that reimburses service members' abortion-related expenses.

The survey results come from an online survey conducted by the Partnership of Public Service of 1,000 U.S. adults from Sept. 6-12, 2023. 

Poll: Most Americans say a shutdown would affect them

68% say a shutdown would decrease their trust in government.

 A "danger" sign is posted at a work site on the East Plaza of the U.S. Capitol

Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

More than half of American adults say a shutdown of the federal government would affect them personally — and 68% say the threat of one decreases their trust in the government, a new survey says.Why it matters: The survey points to the disarray that would ripple through the nation if House Republicans can&#x27;t settle on a deal to fund the government by the Sept. 30 deadline.

August brought another overwhelming wave of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border — including a record number of family members crossing illegally, according to government data released Friday.

Why it matters: After initial optimism that President Biden's new policies were working, immigration officials are again scrambling.

Fellow Democrats are raising alarms as their cities struggle to provide shelter for the thousands of foreigners arriving from the border.

What's happening: 233,000 migrants and asylum seekers attempted to cross the U.S.-Mexico border last month without proper visas.

181,000 people crossed the border illegally last month — the highest monthly number since before pandemic policies were replaced by new carrot-and-stick measures in May.

A record 93,000 family members crossed illegally.

Driving the news: Things haven't slowed down since August.

For the first time since a historic wave leading up to the end of restrictive COVID policies, border crossings surpassed 10,000 in a single day on Wednesday, according to internal data obtained by Axios.

The number includes migrants and asylum seekers crossing illegally as well as at legal entry points.

The daily average for the past three weeks is now nearing 9,000 a day, according to the data.

Customs and Border Protection "remains vigilant in the face of ruthless smugglers and transnational criminal organizations who exploit vulnerable migrants," Troy Miller, a senior official serving as CBP commissioner, said in a statement.

"Our operational tempo along the border has increased in response to increased encounters," he added.

Between the lines: The higher numbers have been driven in part by a surge in Venezuelan migrants and asylum seekers fleeing a severely unstable economy and government at home.

More than 31,000 Venezuelans crossed into the U.S. in August, with 70% choosing to do so illegally despite Biden's legal parole program specifically created for them.

Many are risking the dangerous jungles of the Darién Gap separating Colombia and Panama.

A startling 82,000 migrants took the often-deadly journey through the Darién last month. Nearly 63,000 of them were Venezuelans, according to Panamanian data.

Venezuelans have long been a particularly challenging demographic. The country's authoritarian regime doesn't cooperate with U.S. efforts to deport Venezuelans — leaving U.S. officials few options once migrants arrive.

What to watch: The administration on Wednesday extended and re-designated Venezuela for Temporary Protected Status. 

That will allow Venezuelans who were already in the U.S. before the end of July to legally live and work in the U.S. for at least the next year and a half.

The Biden administration has already expanded a program nationwide that allows officials to more rapidly deport families who do not qualify for asylum.

It is also deploying 800 active duty military personnel to assist border officials — on top of the 2,500 National Guard troops already there.

The intrigue: For months, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) has blocked Biden from using funds to assist other countries in deporting Venezuelans before they reach the U.S.

Menendez is now "temporarily" stepping down from the committee in the face of federal bribery charges.

Border crossings by migrant families hits record high

After initial optimism that President Biden’s new policies were working, immigration officials are again scrambling.

Migrants waiting to be processed on the Ciudad Juarez side of the border on Sept. 21, 2023 in El Paso, Texas. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Illegal immigration

Joe Biden

August brought another overwhelming wave of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border — including a record number of family members crossing illegally, according to government data released Friday.Why it matters: After initial optimism that <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="President Biden&#x27;s" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/joe-biden" data-vars-content-id="cfffb51a-e587-468c-a859-bbf625abb335" data-vars-headline="Border crossings by migrant families hits record high" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/joe-biden" target="_self">President Biden&#x27;s</a> new policies were working, immigration officials are again scrambling.

Stef W. Kight

Stories

Charted: Congress' most rebellious freshman lawmakers

Migrant surge makes U.S. housing crisis worse

Border crossings by migrant families hits record high

Poll: Most Americans say a shutdown would affect them

Taylor Swift snags 35,000 new registered voters

Newsletter editions

💥 GOP's whistleblower fireworks

🇺🇸 God, family and country

🎓 The education election

🔎 GOP's FBI gamble

🔎 100-day "weaponization" war