National

Axios Sneak Peek

The House Freedom Caucus is so far refusing to back GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for speaker should its party win back the majority — testing what commitments it can leverage in exchange for its members' support.

Why it matters: The ultra-conservative group, which has a history of dislodging Republican leaders whom members didn’t see as properly representing the conservative movement, is plotting a return to relevance after years of seeing its influence fade.

If Republicans regain the House majority with tight rather than wide margins, it could give the caucus more power.

"If you’ve got 30 votes in a narrow majority, you can be influential," said Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.).

Driving the news: The group's chairman, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), and other members are pushing for the GOP conference to vote on a new House rules package before electing the new leadership.

It's one of several leverage points the caucus is discussing, as The Washington Examiner and Punchbowl News have reported.

What they're saying: Perry told Axios "it's a different game" when a party is in the majority, compared to when they’re in the minority and totally unified on opposing the other party.

"Everybody's in the Freedom Caucus right now on the Republican side," he said. "That'll change when you're in the majority. Somebody has to be the conscience of the conference and actually do the things we said we were going to do on the campaign trail."

As for aligning behind McCarthy, Perry said: "Talk to me on Nov. 9." For now, Freedom Caucus members have adopted an official stance of neutrality in leadership elections, Buck told Axios. 

In a separate phone interview, Perry said the caucus has heard from "a lot of [candidates] that want to be in the Freedom Caucus, across the country in these open seats. … We think that’s a good sign."

Between the lines: There was a time when HFC members were the leaders of the right — not just in Congress, but across the conservative movement as a whole. 

Their actions — which often served as a check on party leadership and the GOP establishment overall — largely dictated conservative messaging and activism. 

But the group's star power has weakened in recent years for key three reasons:

1. The minority: House Republicans have been more unified — and less involved in policymaking decisions — in their last four years in the minority.

2. Donald Trump's rise: The caucus was once viewed as the beacon of the right, but was overtaken in 2016 by a larger-than-life figure who preached many of the same ideals and principles.

3. Leadership shakeup: Former Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) — original co-founders of the Freedom Caucus — were once the frontmen.

But Meadows left Congress in late 2020 to become Trump's chief of staff, while Jordan has since landed a spot within House Republican leadership. 

Jordan has already endorsed McCarthy for speaker, telling Axios that McCarthy has done a "great" job and been more unifying than some previous leaders — though he acknowledged "it's easier to do when you're when you're in the minority."

After Trump took office, Jordan said HFC shifted its focus from passing legislation to fiercely defending Trump.

What to watch: Some members want to adopt more scorched-earth tactics toward President Biden. 

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) told Axios he wants to "force this president to sign bills that would rescind some of the harm" of Democratic policies and "shut it down if necessary. Gridlock is a good thing compared to the alternative."

House Freedom Caucus plots return to relevance

The ultra-conservative group is so far refusing to back Kevin McCarthy for speaker.

Freedom Caucus

Politics & Policy

Democrats are pouring millions into a last-minute effort to neutralize their vulnerabilities on crime — an issue they admit has driven a flood of effective Republican attacks in key contests.

Why it matters: The dynamic comes after a summer in which GOP attacks on inflation lost some potency and Democrats harnessed a ripple of much-needed momentum from pro-abortion rights sentiment.

Driving the news: After months of wrangling with progressives, the House on Thursday passed four policing bills, including grants for small local police departments to help with recruitment and training and legislation to fund technology to help close unsolved cases.

Vulnerable Democrats expressed hope that the package would help them deflect GOP attacks on crime. “It’s just one more piece of evidence that all those attacks are insane," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

"They’re in a hunt to talk about anything except women’s reproductive rights. I mean, they’ll talk about the weather before they talk about that," Kildee added.

"I think it's helpful to [swing seat Democrats], and I think they have to talk about it every place they go," said Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who also took a swipe at "members of our party who vilify police officers as a whole."

What's happening: In Wisconsin, a barrage of new ads from Republicans' top Senate super PAC have hit Democratic nominee Mandela Barnes over his support for ending cash bail. Barnes is facing off with incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.

One of the spots features the grandmother of a child struck by a car during an attack on a Waukesha Christmas parade last year.

"Mandela Barnes supports no cash bail that puts criminals like Darrell Brooks back on the streets," the grandmother says. "He's more worried about criminals than victims."

Zoom out: The Senate Leadership Fund ad, one of multiple ads hitting Barnes on his cash bail position, comes as Republicans nationwide lean into the crime issue.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is out with a new ad this week with a similar attack on Barnes.

Pennsylvania Republican Mehmet Oz has hammered his Senate opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, over his record of pushing for clemency while leading Pennsylvania’s Board of Pardons. 

The Republican Governors Association has released ads over the past week hitting Democratic incumbents in Wisconsin and New Mexico on crime.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, Republicans' top House super PAC, has run ads in at least 10 races over the last two weeks focused on crime and police funding.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Virginia are rolling out a new effort to hammer vulnerable Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger on the crime issue.

A new super PAC called Moms for Safe Streets is running a round of TV ads tying Spanberger to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), accusing her of joining "AOC's effort to defund the police."

The other side: Recognizing the party's vulnerability on crime, the political arm of Third Way, a centrist Democratic group, says it's kicking off millions in ad spending defending frontline Democrats on the issue.

The group, Shield PAC, plans to drop about $700,000 apiece into at least seven House races to defend Democrats on crime and immigration, according to Third Way public affairs director Matt Bennett.

He called the crime attacks "false, but deadly," and pointed specifically to the Moms for Safe Streets ad.

Between the lines: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been working with candidates this year to try to neutralize those sorts of attacks.

Key to the party's tactics are "validators," or law enforcement officers who can be featured in ads pushing back on "defund" attacks, according to a DCCC strategy memo circulated to candidates early this year.

A host of Democratic House candidates have heeded the advice, featuring local law enforcement officials in ads throughout the summer.

That's precisely the approach Shield PAC is taking as well.

"Abigail Spanberger is working to fund the police," says its 30-second spot defending her. It describes Spanberger as a "leading Democratic critic of the defund movement" and includes a testimonial from the chief of the Culpepper, Virginia, police department.

Shield PAC is also running ads attempting to boost the law enforcement credentials of two other frontline Democrats, Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Kim Schrier of Washington.

GOP's crime cudgel

The crime issue has driven a series of effective Republican attacks in key contests.

Illustration of a political lawn sign shaped like a police car

Crime

Democrats are pouring millions into a last-minute effort to neutralize their vulnerabilities on crime — an issue they admit has driven a flood of effective Republican attacks in key contests.Why it matters: The dynamic comes after a summer in which GOP attacks on inflation lost some potency and Democrats harnessed a ripple of much-needed momentum from pro-abortion rights sentiment.

House Republicans will roll out their four-part midterm agenda Friday with the blessing of a surprising group — Democrats, who see plenty there to campaign against.

Driving the news: After the agenda language was accidentally released ahead of the rollout, Dems seized on the GOP's pledge to "protect the lives of unborn children and their mothers," as well as sections taking aim at Democrats' much-heralded drug pricing law and proposing ballot access restrictions.

The big picture: Still, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — who disagreed strategically with Sen. Rick Scott's release of a 12-point GOP plan earlier this year — doesn't have the same worries about House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's document, a Senate GOP leadership aide told Axios.

Most notably, McCarthy’s “Commitment to America” is an outline of “vague principles,” not specific legislation.

It also does not include some of Scott's most controversial planks, such as recommendations to require Congress to re-approve Social Security and Medicare every five years or a call for Americans who don't pay income tax to "have skin in the game."

The aide also noted House Republicans can more freely introduce agendas and make "specific promises" because of the Senate's 60-vote threshold: “The House has the ability to pass a bunch of legislation; the Senate doesn’t."

What they're saying: McConnell showed House Republicans some love on Twitter, saying that McCarthy and the caucus "will bring the people’s priorities back into the people’s House" and be a group that "actually fights for American families instead of making their lives harder."

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), chair of the Senate Republican Conference. said of the House plan, "I'm absolutely for it," and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said, "I don't have any problem with that."

The other side: "There couldn't be a starker choice this year," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) told Axios, "and Kevin McCarthy's cynical ploy only underscores those differences."

What we're watching: How vague provisions translate into legislation, especially on abortion. 

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) noted a "strong majority" of House Republicans are co-sponsoring the Life at Conception Act, telling Axios: "My hope would be that would be our legislative pursuit."

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), one of the most vulnerable House GOP incumbents, said he thinks leadership will put a 15-week ban on the floor, and that "it would pass, most definitely." But, he noted: "You’re not going to get it out of the Senate."

Bacon indicated he's not campaigning on abortion: "I’m going to focus on cost of living and energy ... [and] the border."

Between the lines: Other House Republicans prefer to keep abortion plans less defined until after the election. 

"We still have a ways to go on what the pro-life agenda will look like," said Republican Study Committee Chair Jim Banks (R-Ind.).

Editor's note: This story has been updated to clarify Bacon does not believe a 15-week abortion ban would pass the Senate.

House Republicans' agenda gamble

Democrats are happy to campaign against the GOP plan.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, wearing a dark gray suit, white shirt and red-and-white tie, attends a memorial service in the Capitol's statuary hall.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images.

House Republicans

House Republicans will roll out their <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="four-part midterm agenda" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/07/kevin-mccarthy-republicans-commitment-america-agenda" data-vars-content-id="6a3697ca-994b-46c7-9154-3d6245bdb4b1" data-vars-headline="House Republicans&#x27; agenda gamble" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/07/kevin-mccarthy-republicans-commitment-america-agenda" target="_self">four-part midterm agenda</a> Friday with the blessing of a surprising group — Democrats, who see plenty there to campaign against.Driving the news: After the agenda language was accidentally released ahead of the rollout, Dems seized on the GOP&#x27;s pledge to &quot;protect the lives of unborn children and their mothers,&quot; as well as sections taking aim at Democrats&#x27; <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="much-heralded drug pricing law" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/12/democrats-prescription-drug-prices-medicare-midterms" data-vars-content-id="6a3697ca-994b-46c7-9154-3d6245bdb4b1" data-vars-headline="House Republicans&#x27; agenda gamble" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/12/democrats-prescription-drug-prices-medicare-midterms" target="_self">much-heralded drug pricing law</a> and proposing ballot access restrictions.

The Senate’s bill to reform how Congress certifies presidential elections is on track to pass the chamber by a comfortable margin after advancing out of committee on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The bill would significantly raise the threshold for members of Congress to object to Electoral College votes and clarify the vice president’s role in the process as purely ceremonial as a remedy for the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

Driving the news: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced his support for the legislation on Tuesday, saying in a floor speech that the "chaos" of Jan. 6 "underscored the need for an update."

Soon after, the bill passed out of the Senate Rules Committee by 14-1, with just Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) voting against it because it "decreases the ability of Congress to address instances of fraud."

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), who voted to decertify Pennsylvania’s and Arizona’s electors on Jan. 6, was among the seven Republicans who voted for the bill.

A senior GOP aide told Axios that McConnell’s support, as well as Hyde-Smith's, is a good sign for the bill and that support is only likely to grow — adding that it’s tough to make a case against it.

What they’re saying: Other Republicans who voted to decertify electors didn’t rule out voting for the bill in interviews with Axios.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said he is "reviewing" the bill, adding: "I’m open to having a conversation to make sure that we always improve things."

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said, "I want to look at the details of it."

Yes, but: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who filed the objection to Pennsylvania‘s electors, said he will "probably vote no" on the bill: "Fiddling with that law, which has governed out presidential elections for 150 years, I just don’t see a need to do it."

Other conservatives also said they’re weighing voting for the bill.

"I’m open to reforms," said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), adding that the Senate legislation is "more reasonable" than a competing bill passed by the House last week.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said he’s "never been nuts" about reform, but added: "I’m going to look at it really carefully. It’s certainly a noble effort, and I think the people working on it are really good people who want to be helpful.”

By the numbers: The bill, the product of a bipartisan group that formed at the start of the year, already has 11 GOP co-sponsors — one more than is needed to break a filibuster if all Democrats vote for it.

What we're watching: How the Senate bill and the House bill are reconciled.

The House bill, introduced by Jan. 6 committee members Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), passed the House with just nine GOP votes.

"I had a discussion with Rep. Cheney last week. It's clear to me that our bill has broader bipartisan support, but I'm sure we can work with them," said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who helped lead the bipartisan Senate group.

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), the top Republican on the Rules Committee, said he and Chair Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) have "talked to Zoe Lofgren," and that the panel's markup made changes that make the Senate bill "a little closer to the House bill."

What's next: With the Senate planning to skip town at the end of the week, the legislation is likely to be punted until after the November election, senators said.

"I don't see us getting into it this week," said Blunt. "My belief is we're not back in October, but that's just a guess ... so that means it all has to come up" in the lame-duck session.

Collins said her goal is to have the bill passed before the end of the year — and, in particular, "before the presidential campaign startup next year."

Senate's Electoral Count Act reform heads for broad bipartisan vote

Even some senators who voted to decertify electors are weighing voting for the bill.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) at a Senate Rules Committee hearing.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Senate

The Senate’s bill to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reform how Congress certifies" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/20/electoral-count-act-reform-bipartisan" data-vars-content-id="b07e7fd1-cf70-4a4b-a2bb-0c771a2612d0" data-vars-headline="Senate&#x27;s Electoral Count Act reform heads for broad bipartisan vote" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/20/electoral-count-act-reform-bipartisan" target="_self">reform how Congress certifies</a> presidential elections is on track to pass the chamber by a comfortable margin after advancing out of committee on Tuesday.Why it matters: The bill would significantly raise the threshold for members of Congress to object to Electoral College votes and clarify the vice president’s role in the process as purely ceremonial as a remedy for the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

The Jan. 6 committee on Tuesday postponed its next public hearing that was scheduled for Wednesday, citing the rapidly intensifying Hurricane Ian.

Driving the news: "In light of Hurricane Ian bearing down on parts of Florida, we have decided to postpone tomorrow’s proceedings. We’re praying for the safety of all those in the storm’s path," the committee tweeted.

The big picture: This week's hearing was expected to be the panel's final hearing before releasing a final report on its findings and recommendations. Its investigation into the events surrounding the Capitol riot has spanned more than a year.

The committee has not announced a rescheduled date.

"The Select Committee’s investigation goes forward," committee chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and Vice Chair Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) said in a statement.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) is a member of the committee whose district includes parts of Orlando, which may be impacted by the hurricane.

What we’re watching: The timing of when the hearing will be rescheduled remains unclear, with multiple potential complicating factors at play.

The hurricane and its aftermath could continue to dominate the news cycle for the rest of the week, and committee member Murphy’s Florida district is in the path of the storm.

A hearing too close to the November election could complicate the committee’s efforts to avoid the perception of partisanship, especially as they are already poised to make news in October, as Axios reported.

The panel doesn’t typically hold hearings when the House is out of session — though they made a notable exception in the case of Cassidy Hutchinson’s bombshell testimony during the House’s summer recess.

A committee spokesperson declined to comment on the timing.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional background.

Jan 6. committee postpones hearing, citing Hurricane Ian

The committee cited the rapidly intensifying Hurricane Ian.

January 6 committee holds a public hearing 

Rep. Liz Cheney speaks during a Jan. 6 select committee hearing on July 21. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Congress

The Jan. 6 committee on Tuesday postponed its next <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="public hearing" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/26/jan6-committee-hearing-sept28-trump" data-vars-content-id="b7a805c5-5755-4e03-90f8-310bc083d87d" data-vars-headline="Jan 6. committee postpones hearing, citing Hurricane Ian" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/26/jan6-committee-hearing-sept28-trump" target="_self">public hearing</a> that was scheduled for Wednesday, citing the rapidly intensifying <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Hurricane Ian" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/27/live-hurricane-ian-southwest-florida" data-vars-content-id="b7a805c5-5755-4e03-90f8-310bc083d87d" data-vars-headline="Jan 6. committee postpones hearing, citing Hurricane Ian" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/27/live-hurricane-ian-southwest-florida" target="_self">Hurricane Ian</a>.Driving the news: &quot;In light of Hurricane Ian bearing down on parts of Florida, we have decided to postpone tomorrow’s proceedings. We’re praying for the safety of all those in the storm’s path,&quot; the committee <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tweeted" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/January6thCmte/status/1574841926234378257" data-vars-content-id="b7a805c5-5755-4e03-90f8-310bc083d87d" data-vars-headline="Jan 6. committee postpones hearing, citing Hurricane Ian" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/January6thCmte/status/1574841926234378257" target="_blank">tweeted</a>.

Sections

Axios Local

Axios gets you smarter, faster with news & information that matters.

About

Subscribe

Andrew Solender

Stories

Senate's Electoral Count Act reform heads for broad bipartisan vote

Jan 6. committee postpones hearing, citing Hurricane Ian

House Republicans' agenda gamble

GOP's crime cudgel

House Freedom Caucus plots return to relevance