1 big thing: McCarthy's right-wing reckoning

2. 👀 Progressives cool on debt deal

3. 🇺🇸 Trump vows to end birthright citizenship — again

4. 🦋 Rosalynn Carter diagnosed with dementia

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,053 words ... 4 minutes.

👀 You're invited: Join Axios’ Sophia Cai and Ryan Heath tomorrow at 8:30am ET in D.C. for a News Shapers event featuring Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency director Jen Easterly and GOP presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Register here to attend in person or virtually.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

Plus: Trump revives birthright citizenship vow

Sneak Peek

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Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

Standard

1 big thing: Dems' debt regrets

Illustration of a donkey holding a big hundred dollar bill in its mouth

2. 💰 Latest: McCarthy hails "productive" meeting

3. 🗣️ Tim Scott's pitch

4. 🏛️ Delaware giant retires

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,076 words ... 4 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is reconsidering his decision not to run for president and may jump into the race after the state's legislative elections, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke and Mike Allen scooped.

Plus: McCarthy hails "productive" meeting

1 big thing: Inside the House's right-wing schism

2. 🔎 McCarthy's impeachment threat

3. ❌ DeSantis rolls out "no excuses" border plan

4. 🇷🇺 Biden: U.S. had "nothing to do" with Wagner uprising

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,096 words ... 4 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: White House chief of staff Jeff Zients responded to an NBC poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris has a historic low net favorability rating, telling Axios that "[w]e just need to make sure that we do a good job of exposing” her to the public.

📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Twitter's political monopoly under threat

2. 🔥 MTG drama looms over House recess

Photo illustration of Marjorie Taylor Greene tinted red, pointing to her right, in front of an energetically textured blue background

3. 📜 Pence's McCain moment

4. 🏙️ City Hall stunner

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,092 words ... 4 minutes.

💰 Situational awareness: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis raised $20 million in the first six weeks of his presidential campaign.

The pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down claims to have raised $130 million since March, but $82.5 million was transferred from DeSantis' former state PAC.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Trump loyalists circle the wagons

Photo illustration of Donald Trump surrounded by a circle of old fashioned covered wagons. 

2. ⚖️ Trump's official docket

3. 💰 Tea leaves show path to possible tax deal

4. 🔥 Scoop: White House elbows back on "MAGA" Hatch Act violation

5. 🗣️ Focus groups: N.C. swing voters' unfixable Biden fear

⚾ Welcome back to Sneak. The Congressional Baseball Game is underway on C-SPAN. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,025 words ... 4 minutes.

🌴 Situational awareness: Miami's Republican Mayor Francis X. Suarez has filed to run for president, a day after former President Trump was arraigned in the city he runs.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Patricia Guadalupe.

National

With 10 days until federal funding expires and no resolution in sight, lawmakers are preparing for a government shutdown that looks increasingly inevitable.

Why it matters: The disruptions from House Republicans' infighting aren't confined to the executive branch. The pay of thousands of congressional employees and constituent services — which are especially vital during a shutdown — would be affected as well.

"If anything, constituents are going to need more help if agencies are not there to answer phones and respond to their needs," Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told Axios.

Constituents are beginning to take notice: "Some of our locals have started to ask how is this going to impact services," said one staffer.

Driving the news: Democrats on the House Administration Committee on Wednesday held a members-only briefing about "how to best serve your constituents during a government shutdown," according to an invitation obtained by Axios. 

Republican staffers said they hadn't yet received such guidance as of Wednesday, but their party may soon follow suit. 

"Historically the committee has sent formal guidance to offices on what to do during a shutdown," a GOP committee aide told Axios. "Our intention is to do that again at the appropriate time."

What we're hearing: Members and aides in both parties said they are most worried about an increased constituent caseload, with many offices planning to deem their whole staff "essential" to avoid furloughs.

"Everyone on my staff is essential," said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who  pointed to his time as an FBI agent during the 2013 shutdown: "It was devastating. Investigations were shut down because of that."

Huffman said his team will be "firing on all cylinders. I'm not concerned that we'll lose any capacity."

Yes, but: There is still a limit to what congressional offices will be able to do to assist constituents with federal agencies undermanned.

"The problem is you can take in requests, but it's not like if there's a passport issue there's someone to call," said Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.). "So we can't really do much for our constituents."

The State Department's passport backlog, a prominent issue in recent congressional casework, has been a particular concern for many offices.

Zoom in: Congressional offices are also grappling with the question of how to keep employees paid.

Many members cited the Congressional Federal Credit Union's interest-free loans for furloughed employees as the main financial lifeline for staff.

Some offices are getting creative by providing bonuses in aides' monthly paychecks, which come at the end of September, said one GOP staffer.

"Millions of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck ... and that is the same for many junior staffers in D.C.," the staffer said, adding that some are planning to dip into their savings and strategizing about how to stretch their September paycheck.

The big picture: This would be the first government shutdown in four years, leaving many freshman and sophomore lawmakers unfamiliar with the protocols.

“Unfortunately, I’ve gone through a Republican shutdown three times,” said Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.), who told Axios she has fielded queries from newer members about the logistics of a shutdown: “There’s a ton of anxiety and a lot of questions.”

Offices have been passing around guidance from the 2018-2019 shutdown on procedures for administering their offices and guidance on which Capitol services will be available.

Democrats are still waiting for clear guidance from the GOP, with House Administration Committee Ranking Member Joseph Morelle (D-N.Y.) saying he expects them to "rely on precedent from previous [shutdowns]."

The other side: Some members of the right-wing Freedom Caucus projected a sanguine attitude towards the possible impacts of a government shutdown.

"We're not focused on a shutdown ... Nobody in my district is calling me about it," said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a key figure in the 2013 shutdown while serving as chief of staff for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas) said that "for the vast majority of the American people, they're not nearly as scared as Washington, D.C."

prominent issue in recent congressional casework

Congress is already bracing for a government shutdown

“There’s a ton of anxiety and a lot of questions," said one lawmaker.

Government shutdown

Politics & Policy

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) failed for a second time on Thursday to advance a bill funding the Department of Defense, dealing another huge blow to his efforts to avert a government shutdown on Oct. 1.

Why it matters: House Republicans are in a state of crisis, unable to even begin debate on an appropriations bill that typically garners broad support.

Despite signs of progress Wednesday night, a group of GOP hardliners continues to resist McCarthy's efforts to pass any legislation to keep the government funded.

Driving the news: The House voted 212-216 against moving the funding bill to a final vote.

Five right-wing lawmakers – Reps. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) – voted with Democrats against the measure.

What they're saying: Bishop suggested his vote was geared toward trying to force GOP leadership to provide a "schedule of appropriations bills” with a clear topline spending number.

"Every time there's the slightest relief of the pressure, the movement goes away," Bishop said.

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said leadership may have to "give some concessions. And the concessions better be written in stone."

The other side: "This is nuts," said Biden-district Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.), who railed against the five GOP "no" votes.

"They call themselves fiscal conservatives ... But they're willing to cost us hundreds of billions, if not trillions, in government growth so they can fundraise off Twitter."

What we're watching: The vote bodes poorly for McCarthy's already grim prospects of passing a bill he rolled out Wednesday to keep the government funded until November.

Some moderates said they believe a short-term spending bill proposed by the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus may now be the best alternative.

"I would have told you this morning, 'no, probably not,' that was probably the secondary option coming into today," said Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.). "But maybe it will be the primary option moving forward."

"Any final bill is going to be bipartisan," said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). "If anybody doesn't realize that, they're truly clueless."

House GOP again fails to advance Pentagon funding, deepening spending crisis

House Republicans are in a state of crisis.

Kevin McCarthy

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) failed for a second time on Thursday to advance <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a bill funding the Department of Defense" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/19/house-republicans-mccarthy-pentagon-funding" data-vars-content-id="6d096445-30ed-4702-bf86-33e04cfc01e2" data-vars-headline="House GOP again fails to advance Pentagon funding, deepening spending crisis" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/19/house-republicans-mccarthy-pentagon-funding" target="_self">a bill funding the Department of Defense</a>, dealing another huge blow to his efforts to avert a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="government shutdown" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/government-shutdown-congress-republicans" data-vars-content-id="6d096445-30ed-4702-bf86-33e04cfc01e2" data-vars-headline="House GOP again fails to advance Pentagon funding, deepening spending crisis" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/government-shutdown-congress-republicans" target="_self">government shutdown</a> on Oct. 1.Why it matters: House Republicans are in a state of crisis, unable to even begin debate on an appropriations bill that typically garners broad support.

The Senate on Wednesday voted to confirm Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, replacing retiring Gen. Mark Milley as the nation's top military officer.

Why it matters: The votes come after months of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) blocking speedy confirmation of hundreds of military nominations and promotions in protest of the Pentagon's abortion travel policy.

Driving the news: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced plans to move the nominations forward on Wednesday, as Tuberville said he wouldn't stand in the way of holding those votes.

The Senate voted 83-10 to confirm Brown as Joint Chiefs chairman, and teed up another vote to confirm Gen. Randy George as Army chief of staff.

The military has been forced to operate without Senate-confirmed commandants at the top of three services — the Army, Marines and Navy — for the first time in history.

Yes, but: This doesn't mark the end of Tuberville's blockade. Schumer opted to spend floor time holding votes on these key posts, but he is not likely to do so for the more than 300 nominees Tuberville is blocking.

Most of these appointments are confirmed by what's called "unanimous consent," which allows the Senate to instantly pass uncontroversial measures as long as no senator objects.

But Tuberville has been putting holds on these nominations for more than half a year in protest of the Pentagon's policy of reimbursing service members for out-of-state abortion expenses.

Asked whether he plans to maintain his hold on other military nominees, Tuberville told Axios: "Oh yeah."

The backdrop: Tuberville told fellow Senate Republicans at their weekly lunch on Tuesday that he would force a vote on Gen. Eric Smith, the nominee for commandant of the Marine Corps.

His blockade has spurred bipartisan frustration, with many senators reluctant to set a precedent of holding floor votes on nominations that are historically routine.

"We cannot physically do it," Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said of holding votes on the stalled nominations. It would take "100 days of floor activity ... So it's not practical," he said.

Go deeper: Democratic senator expects "frustrated" GOP to stop Tuberville blockade

Senate confirms top military officer amid Tuberville blockade

The Alabama senator said he plans to maintain his hold on other nominees.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images.

Senate

The Senate on Wednesday voted to confirm <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr." data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2020/06/09/charles-brown-first-black-air-force-chief" data-vars-content-id="7c4ac1dd-71d0-4421-b77f-b652d83ef354" data-vars-headline="Senate confirms top military officer amid Tuberville blockade" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2020/06/09/charles-brown-first-black-air-force-chief" target="_self">Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.</a> as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, replacing retiring Gen. Mark Milley as the nation&#x27;s top military officer.Why it matters: The votes come after months of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="blocking speedy confirmation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/14/tuberville-military-promotions-blockade" data-vars-content-id="7c4ac1dd-71d0-4421-b77f-b652d83ef354" data-vars-headline="Senate confirms top military officer amid Tuberville blockade" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/14/tuberville-military-promotions-blockade" target="_self">blocking speedy confirmation</a> of hundreds of military nominations and promotions in protest of the Pentagon&#x27;s abortion travel policy.

House Republican leaders floated a new proposal to avert a government shutdown Wednesday evening that appeared to win over some hardline GOP detractors — the first sign of progress in weeks.

Why it matters: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) suffered a series of setbacks this week in his quest to keep the government funded past Sept. 30 while pacifying his right-wing critics, some of whom have openly speculated about forcing a vote to oust him.

A 30-day stopgap funding bill (or continuing resolution) setting the current government spending level at $1.471 trillion a year.

Attaching Republicans' border security legislation to the continuing resolution.

An agreement to set full-year spending levels at $1.526 trillion for the 12 appropriations bills Congress must pass.

A bipartisan commission to address U.S. national debt.

Driving the news: Several Republicans who helped tank a Pentagon funding bill on Tuesday agreed to reverse course, teeing up a vote for Thursday while GOP leadership continues to work on the short-term spending plan.

Leadership plans to bring the new continuing resolution proposal to the floor on Saturday, according to two sources. 

The bill is similar to the deal negotiated by leaders of the moderate Main Street Caucus and the right-wing Freedom Caucus, but proposes slightly lower spending levels in an effort to appease some conservative rebels.

The proposal comes after moderates began to float working with Democrats to keep the government funded — the worst possible scenario for many Republicans — and as conservatives dug in their heels on calls to establish topline spending levels before proceeding.

Behind the scenes: Multiple sources inside the 2.5-hour meeting told Axios there were moments of tension, but felt the discussion was overall productive in finding a solution that can pass the House.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), arguably McCarthy's most vocal critic, claimed that there were enough members to tank any measure funding the government a short-term basis.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), a fellow hardliner, clapped back that the number of defections was lower than Gaetz was stating, per two sources in the room. 

Moderates, including Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) voiced frustrations with conservatives' tactics, including tanking a procedural vote on Pentagon funding traditionally expected to receive party-line support.

The intrigue: Leaders were able to flip two of the five lawmakers — Reps. Ken Buck (Colo.) and Ralph Norman (S.C.) — who sank the Pentagon bill, leading to an announcement that the vote would be rescheduled for Thursday.

While Buck and Norman agreed to vote to advance the bill, it remains unclear whether it has enough votes for final passage, one lawmaker told Axios. 

Republicans will be helped at least slightly by attendance, with at least one member who was absent during the vote on Tuesday – Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) – now back in D.C.

What they’re saying: Members appeared more optimistic about the odds of avoiding a shutdown, but bubbling frustrations with the process continue to plague the GOP conference.

"This isn't how you fund the government," Rep. Tim Burchett (Tenn.), who opposes leadership's plan for short-term funding, told reporters. 

Some moderates also aren't yet sold on the lower spending levels, with Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) telling reporters that working with Democrats is "always an option."

The big picture: Most members are in agreement that there will be a shutdown on Oct. 1. 

It's still unclear whether the new plan has the votes to unite the House GOP conference, with some conservatives including Gaetz, Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Rep. Paul Gosar (Ariz.) vowing not to vote for any continuing resolution.

Even if McCarthy musters enough GOP support for his proposal, it would be dead on arrival in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Eventually, bipartisan negotiations to fund the government will need to take place.

Reality check: "Of course, we know that will go to the Senate, and then the Senate will have an opportunity to adjust it and and then send it back," said Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.). "It's really what we will do at the end that makes the difference."

Still, the senior Appropriations Committee member added, "if you don't have something across the floor of the House, you've got a really weak hand" in negotiations with the Senate. "In fact, you don't have a hand."

House GOP leaders float new plan to avert government shutdown

It's the first sign of progress in weeks.

McCarthy at the Capitol. Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

House Republican leaders floated a new proposal to avert a government shutdown Wednesday evening that appeared to win over some hardline GOP detractors — the first sign of progress in weeks.Why it matters: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="suffered a series of setbacks" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/19/house-republicans-mccarthy-pentagon-funding" data-vars-content-id="83161fcd-3d85-410f-85c6-b631360fbeb5" data-vars-headline="House GOP leaders float new plan to avert government shutdown" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/19/house-republicans-mccarthy-pentagon-funding" target="_self">suffered a series of setbacks</a> this week in his quest to keep the government funded past Sept. 30 while pacifying his right-wing critics, some of whom have openly speculated about forcing a vote to oust him.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said Friday he won't resign from the Senate despite mounting calls from fellow Democrats for him to do so over an indictment on bribery charges.

What he's saying: "It is not lost on me how quickly some are rushing to judge a Latino and push him out of his seat," Menendez said in a statement. "I am not going anywhere."

The New Jersey senator said he will "continue to fight for the people of New Jersey with the same success I've had for the past five decades."

The details: Menendez and his wife were charged Friday by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York with conspiracy to commit bribery, conspiracy to commit honest services fraud and conspiracy to commit extortion under color of official right.

The indictment accuses Menendez of accepting "hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes" in cash, gold, lavish gifts and other expenses in exchange for using his power to benefit a trio of New Jersey businessmen.

The senator is also accused of using his official role to benefit the government of Egypt, including by providing "sensitive U.S. government information."

Driving the news: Several leading New Jersey Democrats, including nearly half the Democrats in the state's congressional delegation, have called for his resignation.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, State Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin and State Democratic Party Chair LeRoy Jones all called for Menendez to resign.

Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), the top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said in a statement that Menendez "should resign in the best interest of our state."

Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said in a statement to Axios – first reported by the New Jersey Globe – that Menendez can't focus on his state "while addressing such a significant legal matter," adding: "He should step down."

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) posted to the social media site X that "it's in the best interest of our state that Senator Menendez resign."

Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) said in a statement: "I do not believe that Senator Menendez can continue to carry out the important duties of his office for our state."

Zoom out: It's not just New Jersey politicians saying it's time for Menendez to go.

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), a member of House Democratic leadership, said in a CNN appearance that "based on what I've seen, I'm disappointed and, yes, I think he should resign," adding that Senate leadership should "absolutely" push him out.

Between the lines: "These are cartoonish corruption charges. This isn't 2017 by a mile," a senior New Jersey Democratic congressional aide told Axios. "If Donald Trump or a powerful republican did one-tenth of this nonsense we'd be howling to the hills for them to go to the big house." 

Menendez wriggled out of corruption charges over an alleged pay-to-play scheme in 2017 after jurors were unable to reach a unanimous verdict.

The aide said Sherrill and Murphy are "usually the pictures of caution and that they did the right thing speaks to the overwhelming evidence."

The intrigue: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that Menendez "rightly decided to step down temporarily" from his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee "until the matter has been resolved."

Under Senate Democratic Caucus rules, committee chairs under indictment must relinquish their roles.

Schumer did not go as far as to call for Menendez to resign from the Senate, however, calling him a "dedicated public servant" who "has a right to due process and a fair trial."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional developments.

Menendez resists Democrats' mounting calls to resign

Menendez surrendered his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations committee.

Sen. Bob Menendez. Photo: Al Drago-Pool/Getty Images.

Senate Democrats

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said Friday he won&#x27;t resign from the Senate despite mounting calls from fellow Democrats for him to do so over an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="indictment" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/22/menendez-bribery-charges-indictment" data-vars-content-id="a8bda492-797b-485e-9bcf-121d410a4776" data-vars-headline="Menendez resists Democrats&#x27; mounting calls to resign" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/22/menendez-bribery-charges-indictment" target="_self">indictment</a> on bribery charges.What he&#x27;s saying: &quot;It is not lost on me how quickly some are rushing to judge a Latino and push him out of his seat,&quot; Menendez said in a statement. &quot;I am not going anywhere.&quot;

Andrew Solender

Stories

Menendez resists Democrats' mounting calls to resign

House GOP again fails to advance Pentagon funding, deepening spending crisis

House GOP leaders float new plan to avert government shutdown

Senate confirms top military officer amid Tuberville blockade

Congress is already bracing for a government shutdown

Newsletter editions

🐦 Twitter's monopoly threat

⚡ GOP's far-right schism

⚡ GOP circles wagons

🔥 McCarthy's right-wing reckoning

💰 Dems' debt regrets