1 big thing: Trump's special master jam

2. 🐘 GOP's Cheney grudge

3. 🌵 Scoop: McConnell-aligned PAC pulls out of Arizona

4. ✈️ Migrants sue DeSantis

5. 🌎 Parting shot

Welcome back to Sneak. Apologies if you received the newsletter late last night — we had some technical difficulties.

Smart Brevity™ count: 965 words ... 3.5 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: The Jan. 6 committee is planning to hold what could be its final public hearing at 1pm ET on Sept. 28.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

National

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Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing — Scoop: McConnell's closed-door confidence

2. 🎓 Biden's student loan threat

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3. 🎓 Charted: Debt divisions

4. 📧 Brace for email flood

5. 🇬🇧 Parting shot

Welcome back to Sneak. The midterms are in 50 days. Smart Brevity™ count: 993 words ... 3.5 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: Authorities along the southern border have made more than two million immigration arrests in a single year for the first time, far exceeding last year’s record 1.73 million, the Washington Post reports.

👀 Breaking: A Democratic sheriff in Texas has opened an investigation into whether the migrants transported to Martha's Vineyard by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis were the victims of a crime, the Miami Herald reports.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Patricia Guadalupe.

1 big thing: GOP's crime cudgel

Illustration of a political lawn sign shaped like a police car

2. 📺 First look: Dems flip script in Wisconsin

3. 🚨 Special master to Trump: Put up or shut up

4. 🏳️ Republicans pull ads from Ohio Trump district

5. 🇺🇸 Tweet du jour

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 953 words ... 3.5 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: Cook Political Report moved the Arizona Senate race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat," citing Axios' scoop on the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund canceling $9.6 million in TV ads for Republican nominee Blake Masters in his race against Mark Kelly.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing — Scoop: Biden officials to discuss migrant "litigation options"

2. 👀 Views from the border

3. 🐘 McCarthy's pet project

4. 🗳️ Focus groups: Biden's N.C. bounceback

5. 🗣️ Tweet du jour

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 940 words ... 3.5 minutes.

🚨 Situational awareness: A federal judge has appointed a special master to review documents seized at Mar-a-Lago, defying objections from the Justice Department.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. We'll be back Sunday. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.

1 big thing: McCarthy's speaker threat

2. 🔎 Mueller's dominos 

3. 🏛️ Sign of the times

Pence presiding over joint session of Congress

4. 🗳️ House majority math

5. ⛽ Tweet du jour

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,058 words ... 4 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: An appeals court will allow the Justice Department to resume reviewing classified documents seized from former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago as part of its criminal investigation. 

👀 Breaking: A former Trump official tapped to lead the Inter-American Development Bank allegedly threatened to "burn" or "bring" the bank down over an investigation into a rumored affair he had with a female staffer, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. 

The House Freedom Caucus is so far refusing to back GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for speaker should its party win back the majority — testing what commitments it can leverage in exchange for its members' support.

Why it matters: The ultra-conservative group, which has a history of dislodging Republican leaders whom members didn’t see as properly representing the conservative movement, is plotting a return to relevance after years of seeing its influence fade.

If Republicans regain the House majority with tight rather than wide margins, it could give the caucus more power.

"If you’ve got 30 votes in a narrow majority, you can be influential," said Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.).

Driving the news: The group's chairman, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), and other members are pushing for the GOP conference to vote on a new House rules package before electing the new leadership.

It's one of several leverage points the caucus is discussing, as The Washington Examiner and Punchbowl News have reported.

What they're saying: Perry told Axios "it's a different game" when a party is in the majority, compared to when they’re in the minority and totally unified on opposing the other party.

"Everybody's in the Freedom Caucus right now on the Republican side," he said. "That'll change when you're in the majority. Somebody has to be the conscience of the conference and actually do the things we said we were going to do on the campaign trail."

As for aligning behind McCarthy, Perry said: "Talk to me on Nov. 9." For now, Freedom Caucus members have adopted an official stance of neutrality in leadership elections, Buck told Axios. 

In a separate phone interview, Perry said the caucus has heard from "a lot of [candidates] that want to be in the Freedom Caucus, across the country in these open seats. … We think that’s a good sign."

Between the lines: There was a time when HFC members were the leaders of the right — not just in Congress, but across the conservative movement as a whole. 

Their actions — which often served as a check on party leadership and the GOP establishment overall — largely dictated conservative messaging and activism. 

But the group's star power has weakened in recent years for key three reasons:

1. The minority: House Republicans have been more unified — and less involved in policymaking decisions — in their last four years in the minority.

2. Donald Trump's rise: The caucus was once viewed as the beacon of the right, but was overtaken in 2016 by a larger-than-life figure who preached many of the same ideals and principles.

3. Leadership shakeup: Former Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) — original co-founders of the Freedom Caucus — were once the frontmen.

But Meadows left Congress in late 2020 to become Trump's chief of staff, while Jordan has since landed a spot within House Republican leadership. 

Jordan has already endorsed McCarthy for speaker, telling Axios that McCarthy has done a "great" job and been more unifying than some previous leaders — though he acknowledged "it's easier to do when you're when you're in the minority."

After Trump took office, Jordan said HFC shifted its focus from passing legislation to fiercely defending Trump.

What to watch: Some members want to adopt more scorched-earth tactics toward President Biden. 

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) told Axios he wants to "force this president to sign bills that would rescind some of the harm" of Democratic policies and "shut it down if necessary. Gridlock is a good thing compared to the alternative."

House Freedom Caucus plots return to relevance

The ultra-conservative group is so far refusing to back Kevin McCarthy for speaker.

Freedom Caucus

Politics & Policy

The House Jan. 6 committee is on a potential collision course with the Nov. 8 election.

Why it matters: The committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol plans to hold at least one more hearing late this month and release early findings and recommendations before the election.

Despite the panel's long-stated goal of avoiding perceptions of partisanship or politicization, a noisy October could impact the midterms.

Driving the news: The committee will meet virtually Friday to plan the rest of their schedule including upcoming hearings, members told Axios.

Unlike 1/6 probes by the Justice Department and the Fulton County, Ga., district attorney, the committee has an expiration date. "We sunset Dec. 31," Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) told reporters this week.

State of play: Members told Axios that while their final report will likely come after the election, plenty of news could be made before — and that the election is not a big factor in their scheduling.

Thompson told Axios the panel does not want to be "perceived as a partisan committee ... we’ve been fairly free of those kind of complaints, and we would not want to interfere with the election."

But he said the time between an expected Sept. 28 hearing and the election "won’t be a quiet period." He also said that "the goal is to have … some information pushed out, obviously, before the November election.” The panel may release its interim report in that window.

What they're saying: "There are those partisans of former President Trump that will denounce anything we do, so we're not going to jump through hoops to please people who will call anything we do partisan," said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) Raskin said the committee has achieved "a good reputation with the American people for sticking to the facts."

Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), who is not seeking reelection, said: “This effort is not political, so I am indifferent to when the election is.”

Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) told Axios the committee is "just working at our own pace" and they'll release their final report "when we’re ready."

Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said: "We can't make our determination based on dates on the calendar, we've got a job to do. ... It's too important to just circle one date to November."

Between the lines: The panel's highly publicized public hearings over the summer dredged up events Republicans would sooner forget, searing them into the public consciousness in a way they hadn’t been since early 2021. New revelations could return concerns to the forefront of voters' minds.

The other side: Democratic National Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) downplayed concerns around politicization.

"It’s about making sure there’s an accurate historical record of a disgraceful day when our democracy was under attack and holding accountable the people who organized it and took those horrible actions," he said.

Jan. 6 committee's October surprise

The committee says it won't time its work around the election.

Illustration of the US Capitol casting a shadow on a voting booth.

Jan. 6 select committee

The House Jan. 6 committee is on a potential collision course with the Nov. 8 election.Why it matters: The committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol plans to hold at least one more hearing late this month and release early findings and recommendations before the election.

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), whose district is seeing a large number of migrants cross the U.S. border, excoriated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a "soulless human being" on Thursday for flying migrants, reportedly without sharing the destination, to Martha's Vineyard.

Why it matters: Escobar's reaction reflects how many Democrats and immigration advocates have reacted to the move. They've criticized DeSantis for treating humans as "pawns" in a political game — a characterization several other border members used in conversations with Axios.

What's happening: DeSantis, along with fellow GOP Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Doug Ducey of Arizona, have sought to draw attention to the large number of migrants and asylum-seekers arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border by transporting them to Democratic enclaves such as New York, Chicago and Washington, D.C.

What they're saying: Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) slammed DeSantis' move as "grandstanding" in an election season, telling Axios, "I think it's orchestrated and it borders on cruelty because there's no solution being offered." 

"You know these people trapped in this situation become cannon fodder as symbols of ‘look what's going on,'" Grijalva said. "It's cruel and it's politically motivated. It’s sad."

Escobar, in an interview with Axios, denounced all three governors' behavior as "malicious," "hateful" and "demeaning." But she singled out DeSantis as "taking it to a new low, lying to people in the way that he's lied to them."

"You know the people who frequently like to have scripture on the lips and hate in their heart? He reminds me of them," Escobar said.

Between the lines: Escobar noted that nongovernmental organizations have long bussed migrants from the border to other communities where they can be sponsored or reconnect with family members.

But she highlighted the difference in "intent" with what the GOP governors have been doing, accusing them of competing to "debase themselves as much as they can as they grovel for the votes of people who are excited by racism and bigotry."

Other Democrats took a softer approach in their criticism. 

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who has long been critical of the Biden administration's border policies, said he didn't "necessarily agree with the politics of the stunt." 

But he said the government needs "to be doing more to dissuade migrants from coming to the United States. ... Our whole country is now feeling the effects of open borders."

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) texted simply, "monkey see, monkey do."

The other side: Leading Republicans defended the governors' actions.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) called it a "terrific idea."

"This is a national responsibility. It should be a national burden, and we're talking about a minuscule percentage of the overall numbers that are coming," Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told reporters. 

Others were less emphatic. "I get why the governors are doing it. I get why the mayor of El Paso is doing it. It is a political ploy. It makes headlines," Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) told Axios' Josh Kraushaar.

But Gonzales added a warning that "anytime you’re using people as political ploys, it’s dangerous." 

He argued that migrants are often being sent to places they are already heading, and he raised concern that offering transportation to migrants and asylum-seekers could further encourage immigration. 

Border Dem slams "soulless" DeSantis over Martha's Vineyard stunt

"You know the people who frequently like to have scripture on the lips and hate in their heart?"

Texas Rep. Veronica Escobar. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Ron DeSantis

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), whose district is seeing a large number of migrants cross the U.S. border, excoriated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a &quot;soulless human being&quot; on Thursday for flying migrants, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reportedly without sharing the destination" data-vars-click-url="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/15/1123109768/migrants-sent-to-marthas-vineyard" data-vars-content-id="2cb2bb8c-10c3-44fe-b4e1-7cd1505f65f3" data-vars-headline="Border Dem slams &quot;soulless&quot; DeSantis over Martha&#x27;s Vineyard stunt" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/15/1123109768/migrants-sent-to-marthas-vineyard" target="_blank">reportedly without sharing the destination</a>, to Martha&#x27;s Vineyard.Why it matters: Escobar&#x27;s reaction reflects how many Democrats and immigration advocates have reacted to the move. They&#x27;ve criticized DeSantis for treating humans as &quot;pawns&quot; in a political game — a characterization several other border members used in conversations with Axios.

House Republicans will roll out their four-part midterm agenda Friday with the blessing of a surprising group — Democrats, who see plenty there to campaign against.

Driving the news: After the agenda language was accidentally released ahead of the rollout, Dems seized on the GOP's pledge to "protect the lives of unborn children and their mothers," as well as sections taking aim at Democrats' much-heralded drug pricing law and proposing ballot access restrictions.

The big picture: Still, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — who disagreed strategically with Sen. Rick Scott's release of a 12-point GOP plan earlier this year — doesn't have the same worries about House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's document, a Senate GOP leadership aide told Axios.

Most notably, McCarthy’s “Commitment to America” is an outline of “vague principles,” not specific legislation.

It also does not include some of Scott's most controversial planks, such as recommendations to require Congress to re-approve Social Security and Medicare every five years or a call for Americans who don't pay income tax to "have skin in the game."

The aide also noted House Republicans can more freely introduce agendas and make "specific promises" because of the Senate's 60-vote threshold: “The House has the ability to pass a bunch of legislation; the Senate doesn’t."

What they're saying: McConnell showed House Republicans some love on Twitter, saying that McCarthy and the caucus "will bring the people’s priorities back into the people’s House" and be a group that "actually fights for American families instead of making their lives harder."

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), chair of the Senate Republican Conference. said of the House plan, "I'm absolutely for it," and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said, "I don't have any problem with that."

The other side: "There couldn't be a starker choice this year," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) told Axios, "and Kevin McCarthy's cynical ploy only underscores those differences."

What we're watching: How vague provisions translate into legislation, especially on abortion. 

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) noted a "strong majority" of House Republicans are co-sponsoring the Life at Conception Act, telling Axios: "My hope would be that would be our legislative pursuit."

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), one of the most vulnerable House GOP incumbents, said he thinks leadership will put a 15-week ban on the floor, and that "it would pass, most definitely." But, he noted: "You’re not going to get it out of the Senate."

Bacon indicated he's not campaigning on abortion: "I’m going to focus on cost of living and energy ... [and] the border."

Between the lines: Other House Republicans prefer to keep abortion plans less defined until after the election. 

"We still have a ways to go on what the pro-life agenda will look like," said Republican Study Committee Chair Jim Banks (R-Ind.).

Editor's note: This story has been updated to clarify Bacon does not believe a 15-week abortion ban would pass the Senate.

House Republicans' agenda gamble

Democrats are happy to campaign against the GOP plan.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, wearing a dark gray suit, white shirt and red-and-white tie, attends a memorial service in the Capitol's statuary hall.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images.

House Republicans

House Republicans will roll out their <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="four-part midterm agenda" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/07/kevin-mccarthy-republicans-commitment-america-agenda" data-vars-content-id="6a3697ca-994b-46c7-9154-3d6245bdb4b1" data-vars-headline="House Republicans&#x27; agenda gamble" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/07/kevin-mccarthy-republicans-commitment-america-agenda" target="_self">four-part midterm agenda</a> Friday with the blessing of a surprising group — Democrats, who see plenty there to campaign against.Driving the news: After the agenda language was accidentally released ahead of the rollout, Dems seized on the GOP&#x27;s pledge to &quot;protect the lives of unborn children and their mothers,&quot; as well as sections taking aim at Democrats&#x27; <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="much-heralded drug pricing law" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/12/democrats-prescription-drug-prices-medicare-midterms" data-vars-content-id="6a3697ca-994b-46c7-9154-3d6245bdb4b1" data-vars-headline="House Republicans&#x27; agenda gamble" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/12/democrats-prescription-drug-prices-medicare-midterms" target="_self">much-heralded drug pricing law</a> and proposing ballot access restrictions.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), one of President Joe Biden's closest allies on Capitol Hill, predicted on Tuesday that Biden may wait until the middle of next year before deciding whether he will run for re-election in 2024.

Driving the news: Coons said the post-midterm election landscape will be a key indicator as to what direction the Democratic Party will take ahead of 2024. 

"We haven't had the midterm elections yet," Coons told Axios and other reporters. "The outcome of the midterm elections will be a fairly strong indication of what the issues are that will shape the ground for the 2024 presidential."

"November 2024 is a long time away, and President Biden has always been someone who talked about the need for a transition to a new generation of leaders," Coons added. "The question is just when, and it's not clear to me that he's made up his mind about when that should happen."

Why it matters: The White House has insisted that Biden plans to run for re-election, but his top allies — and even the president himself — have been unclear about his future plans. During a "60 Minutes" interview that aired Sunday night, Biden said, "It's much too early to make that kind of decision."

What he's saying: "He's seriously considering running," Coons said. "And I frankly think he means what he said in the 60 Minutes interview, that he's focused on doing the job."

Coons added, however, that there are "plenty of examples of previous Democratic presidents in our lifetime who had a rough first midterm but then came roaring back and won re-election."

"President Biden has a very strong record to run on. Both his approval, and the sense that the country is moving in a better direction, are improving in recent weeks."

If he runs, Coons predicted: "He'll beat Donald Trump again, if that's the way this race plays out."

Go deeper: White House reiterates Biden's plan to run for re-election in 2024

Coons: Biden may wait 'til next year to decide on re-election bid

One of Biden's closest allies said the president has yet to make up his mind, but has long talked about the need for a new generation of leaders.

President Joe Biden (left) and Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) in December, 2016. 

President Joe Biden (left) and Sen. Chris Coons. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

Joe Biden

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), one of President Joe Biden&#x27;s closest allies on Capitol Hill, predicted on Tuesday that Biden may wait until the middle of next year before deciding whether he will run for re-election in 2024.Driving the news: Coons said the post-midterm election landscape will be a key indicator as to what direction the Democratic Party will take ahead of 2024.

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Stories

House Republicans' agenda gamble

House Freedom Caucus plots return to relevance

Coons: Biden may wait 'til next year to decide on re-election bid

Jan. 6 committee's October surprise

Border Dem slams "soulless" DeSantis over Martha's Vineyard stunt

Newsletter editions

🚓 GOP's crime cudgel

🐘 McCarthy's speaker threat

⚖️ Trump's new jam

🐘 Scoop: McConnell's confidence

✈️ Martha's Vineyard fallout