1 big thing: Why this time could be different

Memorial in front of Robb Elementary School

2. "Red flag" momentum

3. Beto's four "solutions"

4. Charted: NRA influence

5. 🌵 Tweet du jour

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 966 words ... 3.5 minutes.

💰 Breaking: A "dark money" group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is gearing up for a $43 million summer spending blitz targeting five competitive Senate seats, Axios' Lachlan Markey scooped. 

📬 Thanks for reading Sneak! Hit reply to this email to send us your feedback, and tell your friends and family they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios’ other free newsletters through this link.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct the spelling of former Rep. Gabby Giffords' first name.

National

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

blue

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: Again.

Flag at the White House flying at half-mast

2. Sandy Hook senator speaks

3. GOP parades Georgia's early turnout

Illustration of several versions of the elephant from the Republican Party logo stampeding and kicking up dust.

4. Charted: Cash floods election ref races

5. Biden calls Abbott

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,178 words ... 4.5 minutes.

Situational awareness: President Biden will deliver remarks on the horrific elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, at 8:15pm ET. Get the latest.

🗳️ Polls have closed in Georgia (7pm ET) and Alabama (8pm ET). Next up are Arkansas (8:30pm ET), Texas (9pm ET) and Minnesota (9pm ET). 

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) will face off in November for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia.

Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will face Stacey Abrams (D) in the Georgia governor's race, after Kemp defeated Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue in the GOP primary.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. Hit reply to this email to send us your feedback, and tell your friends and family they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios’ other free newsletters through this link.

Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to show at least 1 adult was killed in the shooting. The shooter was also killed. 

1 big thing: Why Zelensky doubts he can deal with Putin

2. Zelensky to "America First": Read a history book

3. Bill Murray moment

4. Tweet du jour

5. 💬 1 for the road: Jared on Kellyanne

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 926 words ... 3½ minutes.

🗳️ Situational awareness: It's primary day tomorrow in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. 5 things to watch, from Axios' Andrew Solender.

 ⚡Breaking: The Biden administration has been quietly mediating on negotiations that, if successful, could be a first step on the road to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Axios' Barak Ravid scooped this evening. 

 🚀 Thanks for starting your week with us! Please tell your family, friends and colleagues they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios’ other free local and national newsletters through this link. 

1 big thing: Hill's smallest committee takes center stage

Illustration of gavel causing ripple effect

2. Behind the scenes: Bipartisan gun group's "hyper-focus"

3. Data du jour: Brands that transcend politics

4. 🚨 Charted: Midterm signs flash red

5. 🇨🇳 Parting shots

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,021 words ... 4 minutes.

Join Axios’ Sara Kehaulani Goo, Shawna Chen and Niala Boodhoo tomorrow at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event on Asian American visibility and vulnerability. See the guests and register here.

⚡ Situational awareness: President Biden and first lady Jill Biden will travel to Uvalde on Sunday to meet with the families of the victims killed in Tuesday's school shooting. Get the latest. 

📬 Thanks for reading Sneak! We'll be back with a special holiday edition on Sunday. In the meantime, tell your friends and family to sign up for any of Axios' free newsletters here.  

1 big thing: McCarthy's rude awakening

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is seen speaking during a news conference.

2. Exclusive: Biden to announce new personnel team

President Biden is seen standing before three TV screens as he conducts a virtual swearing-in for some of his staff.

3. Biden's executive orders set record pace

4. The next big political war: redistricting

Illustration of two hands holding markers like crossed swords, one marker is red one marker is blue. 

5. Pic du jour

Workers are seen installing a palm tree near one of former President Trump's golf courses.

Welcome back to Sneak Peek, anchored by Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Kadia Goba.

🚨 Breaking: Vaccine distribution, pandemic data and cross-party comity dominated today's virtual meeting between White House officials and the "Sweet 16" senators, Sen. Angus King tells Axios' Alayna Treene.

⚡ Situational Awareness: The House will transmit its impeachment article against former President Donald Trump to the Senate at 7 pm Monday. 

Janet Yellen also is expected to be confirmed as Treasury secretary on Monday.

Today's newsletter — edited by Glen Johnson — is 705 words, a 2.5-minute read.

🕘 Thanks for kicking off your week with us. We'll be back tomorrow with the slightly earlier Sneak send time many readers requested: 9pm ET. A reminder that you can sign up for email delivery of all Axios newsletters here.

Axios Sneak Peek: McCarthy’s rude awakening … Exclusive - Diversity marks Biden’s OPM

Senate Democrats tell Axios they believe President Biden's offhand remarks signaling the U.S. would militarily defend Taiwan against an attack from China were deliberate — though not strategic. 

Driving the news: Axios interviewed a series of Democratic senators close to the president. Many — both privately and publicly — conceded they think the president personally believes the U.S. should get involved militarily should China invade Taiwan. 

State of play: Biden appeared to have scrapped the U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity" while speaking in Seoul on Monday — the third time he's made such comments. 

Each time, the White House has walked back those remarks, indicating he did not really say what he clearly stated, and that his comments were not a major shift in policy.

Biden clarified his remarks on Tuesday, and told reporters, "The policy has not changed at all."

Between the lines: The U.S. has a longstanding policy of "strategic ambiguity" when it comes to Taiwan. 

The U.S. government acknowledges that China considers Taiwan to be part of "one China" while also opposing any attempts to change its democratic status by force.

What they're saying: “[Biden] absolutely believes it. He believes what he says," Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) told Axios. "There's nothing wrong with honesty, right?"

“I think there is a commitment [that the U.S. would get involved militarily],” Tester added, indicating his support for Biden's initial remarks. 

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said Biden's response to this question may be different if he were senator, and not president: "You'd have to go ask him as just a senator. But he's not just a senator."

"I think the President was simply restating something many of us believe, which is that it would be unacceptable for the PRC [People's Republic of China] to try and resolve the status of Taiwan by force," Coons added. 

As for the White House again cleaning up Biden's comments on this issue, one Democratic senator said of the president: "He doesn't like to be handled."

The big picture: While several Democrats were hesitant to publicly declare their agreement with Biden's position on Taiwan before the White House walkback, others took the opportunity to voice their support for what Biden said. 

"President Biden is right. Credible deterrence requires both courage and clarity – and Taiwan’s vibrant democracy deserves our full support," Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted Monday.

"President Biden’s statement that if push came to shove the U.S. would defend Taiwan against communist China was the right thing to say and the right thing to do," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) wrote.

"The Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, with whom I was just traveling, put out a forceful statement, as have many others, and I think they reflect the broad view of many here," Coons said.

Senate Dems think Biden personally believes in defending Taiwan militarily

The White House walked back Biden's comments in which he appeared to have scrapped the U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity."

Taiwan

China

Senate Democrats tell Axios they believe President Biden&#x27;s offhand remarks signaling the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.S. would militarily defend Taiwan" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/23/biden-japan-kishida-vow-closer-ties-counter-china" data-vars-content-id="24914254-450a-4715-867f-4602604b5acb" data-vars-headline="Senate Dems think Biden personally believes in defending Taiwan militarily" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/23/biden-japan-kishida-vow-closer-ties-counter-china" target="_self">U.S. would militarily defend Taiwan</a> against an attack from China were deliberate — though not strategic. Driving the news: Axios interviewed a series of Democratic senators close to the president. Many — both privately and publicly — conceded they think the president personally believes the U.S. should get involved militarily should China invade Taiwan.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A new bipartisan Senate group on gun control is hyper-focused on operating in the realm of what's possible, even if the end result is a deal that falls short of what many Democrats want, sources familiar with its meeting on Thursday tell Axios.

Why it matters: The five Democrats and four Republicans involved in the talks have agreed to work toward something narrowly focused — not a political messaging bill — that can win over 10 Senate Republicans by the time Congress returns from recess on June 6.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who hosted the group in his office Thursday, signaled he'll take virtually any deal.

"I am so willing to bend over backward to find a compromise. … I need a vote that just shows progress," he said. "I'm perfectly willing to let the good prevail over the perfect."

The latest: Members of the group left the Capitol on Thursday more hopeful than they've been in years about the possibility of a compromise.

Notably, even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) gave the negotiations his blessing, and encouraged Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to get involved in the talks.

As Axios previously reported, senators in both parties had hoped Cornyn — who serves in the state where elementary kids were gunned down — would be a point person for bipartisan negotiations.

Details: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) hosted Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Martine Heinrich (D-N.M.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) for an in-person meeting on the Hill earlier today.

Nearly all of these members have been involved in key gun reform proposals in the past. Many also successfully worked together on the bipartisan infrastructure bill that passed into law last year.

Murphy also met with Cornyn and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) — who told Axios he's open to a federal red flag law — separately on Thursday. 

What they're saying: Sinema, who is leaning heavily on her background as a licensed social worker, told reporters this week: "There's some shared agreement on red flag, which I think might be a place to start conversations to actually get something done for real that would make a difference to people."

"I can stay true to my Second Amendment convictions, but at the same time work to have a proactive solution that if somebody seems to be at risk ... let's investigate," Cassidy, referring to a potential red flag law, told reporters following the meeting.

Manchin told reporters that in 2013, following the Sandy Hook massacre, it was incredibly difficult to get any Republicans to participate in talks. 

"And we had, what, about four or five Republicans in the room [on Thursday]. It's encouraging to see people say there's a pathway forward," he added. "This feels different right now."

"As long as I've been advocating a red flag statute, I've never seen this level of support," Blumenthal said. 

Yes, but: Despite the newfound optimism, the majority of lawmakers are still pessimistic this time will be any different. 

The big fear shared by many members is whether the palpable urgency to act will lose momentum over the 10-day recess. 

Bipartisan gun group hyper-focused on realistic legislation

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) speaks outside the Capitol with other Democratic lawmakers and gun-control activists. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Gun laws

Schumer accuses GOP of choosing NRA over American people

"America's gun epidemic is unmatched from any of our peer nations in the world," the majority leader said.

enate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., conducts a news conference after senate luncheons in the U.S. Capitol, on Tuesday, May 24, 2022.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Chuck Schumer

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday slammed Republicans on the hill who he says &quot;care more about the NRA,&quot; one day after an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="attack at a Texas elementary school" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/texas-school-shooting-victims" data-vars-content-id="8156ccfd-1d77-4e51-8142-c6389873f693" data-vars-headline="Schumer accuses GOP of choosing NRA over American people" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/texas-school-shooting-victims" target="_self">attack at a Texas elementary school</a> killed at least 19 children and two adults.Driving the news: Schumer seemed to indicate that he wants to push for gun legislation before the Senate considers the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="House-passed background check" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/03/11/gun-control-background-checks-house" data-vars-content-id="8156ccfd-1d77-4e51-8142-c6389873f693" data-vars-headline="Schumer accuses GOP of choosing NRA over American people" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/03/11/gun-control-background-checks-house" target="_self">House-passed background check</a> bills that have failed to garner necessary Republican support in the past.

Nihilism about the Senate's ability to do anything after yet another horrific mass shooting — this one taking the lives of 19 children and two teachers in Uvalde, Texas — permeated social media and the halls of Congress on Wednesday.

The big picture: Most lawmakers, even Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), remain highly skeptical that this time will be the time lawmakers strike a compromise. But there are at least five reasons to believe the dam may finally be ready to break.

1. The majority of Americans support background checks.

Polls consistently show most Americans believe current gun laws aren't strong enough, with upward of 90% of voters favoring universal background checks.

Most recently, 59% of registered voters said it's important for lawmakers to pass stricter gun legislation, according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll taken just days before Tuesday's shooting.

2. The National Rifle Association is weakened.

In the 10 years since the Sandy Hook shooting, the NRA has been plagued by internal scandal and even filed for bankruptcy, contributing to its waning political influence.

Make no mistake, the gun lobby still has a firm grip on the Republican Party — something Schumer lambasted GOP members over this morning — but their power isn't the same as it once was.

Lawmakers and those on Capitol Hill were visibly emotional on Wednesday when discussing the shooting. 

All shootings are horrific, senseless tragedies, but there's something about the massacre of helpless 9- and 10-year-old children that makes the issue feel even more personal — and urgent. 

The tragedy at Robb Elementary School is the worst school shooting since the Sandy Hook massacre 10 years ago, which spurred a newfound fervor for Congress to act. While those efforts ultimately failed, the parallels are not lost on members.

Some Democrats are hoping Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) will be a leader on this issue — and potentially even the point person for bipartisan talks — given the shooting happened in his home state.

Cornyn, an influential member of leadership who will likely run to replace Mitch McConnell as GOP leader one day, has shown compassion and willingness to work with Democrats on similar issues before.

"He's from Texas. A [former state district] judge. Has been involved in the background check, in trying to make the system work better," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told reporters. 

"He would be enormously influential if he were to point the way toward a solution," Kaine added.

Cornyn flew to Uvalde on Wednesday morning, along with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

5. Key bipartisan players are talking again.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) spoke with both Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is interested in "red flag" laws, and retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who has been at the center of a bipartisan effort with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to expand background checks.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who took the rare step of addressing reporters in the Capitol on Wednesday, said she plans to renew negotiations with her colleagues in both parties.

Republicans — including Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) — signaled openness to potential background check or federal red-flag bills.

The bottom line: For all the justified pessimism stemming from past failures to act, all that matters in the Senate right now is counting to 10.

Wrangling 10 Senate Republicans to overcome the filibuster is no small feat and something Democrats have consistently struggled with for the past year and a half.

But Schumer has made his path forward clear and is willing to give senators breathing room one more time to try to find some sort of bipartisan compromise that can garner the necessary 60 votes to bypass the filibuster.

Why this time could be different

All that matters in the Senate right now is counting to 10.

A makeshift memorial in front of Robb Elementary School. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

School shooting

Nihilism about the Senate&#x27;s ability to do anything after yet another horrific mass shooting — this one taking the lives of 19 children and two teachers in Uvalde, Texas — permeated social media and the halls of Congress on Wednesday.The big picture: Most lawmakers, even <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/chuck-schumer-slams-gop-gun-control-legislation" data-vars-content-id="c8e77b85-c2c3-4ace-8dda-87d8cb72063c" data-vars-headline="Why this time could be different" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/chuck-schumer-slams-gop-gun-control-legislation" target="_self">Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)</a>, remain highly skeptical that this time will be the time lawmakers strike a compromise. But there are at least five reasons to believe the dam may finally be ready to break.

Senate Democrats and Republicans held small-group discussions Wednesday to gauge bipartisan support for passage of any legislation in the wake of the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting.

What we're hearing: The most realistic path, as of now, seems to be through "red flag" legislation, which would allow authorities to temporarily take guns away from people considered to be a threat to themselves or others, senators say.

Even so, several Republicans said they still believe that should be up to states, not Congress. 

Legislation that would expand background checks or address loopholes on waiting periods is also being discussed but currently appears less likely to overcome a Senate filibuster. 

Driving the news: Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), a moderate known to cross party lines, discussed potential yellow and red flag laws Wednesday morning, Collins told reporters.

Notably, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chairman of Senate Republicans' campaign arm, told Axios: "I'm OK with" supporting a red flag law at the federal level — but said generally such laws should be up to the states.  

Nineteen states currently have red flag laws, including in GOP-controlled states such as Florida and Indiana. 

What we’re watching: Senators are planning to discuss potential paths forward during their private lunches this afternoon, and more lawmakers are planning to engage with their colleagues across the aisle.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) addressed reporters before walking into the Senate chamber for votes — a rare move for her. 

“I'm going to start having conversations again, with colleagues on both sides of the aisle, to determine whether or not there's something we can actually do to help increase safety," Sinema said. 

But she also indicated she would not vote to eliminate the filibuster to get a vote on the issue.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who proposed funding for “local units” focused on defending children from mass shootings, said he is having bipartisan discussions as well.

Reality check: The Senate has a record of logjams when it comes to passing legislation in the wake of mass shootings. 

Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) negotiated a red flag measure following two 2019 mass shootings in San Antonio and Dayton, Ohio. That bill failed to garner the necessary 60 Senate votes for passage.

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.): “I'm generally inclined to think some kind of red flag law is a good idea,” he said. He hasn’t discussed this with his Republican colleagues in the hours since the Texas shooting, however, and says he isn't sure whether such a law would garner 10 GOP votes.

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who is retiring this year, says he anticipates having a conversation with Collins about red flag laws.

Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said he spoke with Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) about a potential red flag bill, adding that while he's skeptical a federal law can get 10 GOP votes, "I'm going to look at anything that has practical application and the ability to pass that's going to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill."

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said he plans to talk to Collins about a red flag law, telling Axios, “I just want to make sure it’s structured in a way that [due process] is protected.”

But, but, but: Some Republicans bristled at the idea, and many Democrats are skeptical of real progress.

Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), asked if Republicans could support a red flag law, told Axios, “Not this Republican.”

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who is known to break with his party at times on key votes, said he thinks "it would be wise to put in place red flag laws," but pushed back on the idea of passing them at the federal level. “Let’s have each state do it if they’d like to,” he said.

Romney did say, however, that he is supportive of federal background checks.

Both Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said they're not optimistic any meaningful gun legislation could get 10 Republican votes.

"Several different times we've had conversations among members and at markups about the desirability and the relevance of having" red-flag laws, Coons said. "That should be enactable, but in the several years since, despite repeated efforts ... we haven't been able to get to 10 on that."

Bipartisan talks on red flag laws pick up after Texas shooting

It's still unclear whether such a proposal at the federal level could get the necessary 10 Republicans votes.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn). Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Gun control

Senate Democrats and Republicans held small-group discussions Wednesday to gauge bipartisan support for passage of any legislation in the wake of the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting.What we&#x27;re hearing: The most realistic path, as of now, seems to be through &quot;red flag&quot; legislation, which would allow authorities to temporarily take guns away from people considered to be a threat to themselves or others, senators say.

Sections

Axios Local

Axios gets you smarter, faster with news & information that matters.

About

Subscribe

Alayna Treene

Stories

Bipartisan gun group hyper-focused on realistic legislation

Why this time could be different

Senate Dems think Biden personally believes in defending Taiwan militarily

Bipartisan talks on red flag laws pick up after Texas shooting

Schumer accuses GOP of choosing NRA over American people

Newsletter editions

🏛️ Hill's new star

🇺🇸 Dems' case for optimism

School tragedy. Again.

🇺🇦 Swan's Zelensky interview

Axios Sneak Peek: McCarthy’s rude awakening … Exclusive - Diversity marks Biden’s OPM