1 big thing: Trump's White House-in-waiting

Illustration of a line of Maga hats on coat hooks

2. 🇺🇦 Biden sees Zelensky's "soul"

3. 🔥 Hard-right's dueling op-eds

4. 💧 Jan. 6 drip-drip

5. 🏛️ Parting shot: Zelensky on the Hill

🎄 Welcome back to Sneak for the final time this year. Smart Brevity™ count: 983 words ... 3.5 minutes.

🇺🇦 Situational awareness: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing to address a joint session of Congress at 7:30pm ET. More on his visit below.

🥳 Thanks for reading tonight and all year long. Best for the holidays, and we'll see you Jan. 3. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Brad Bonhall.

Sneak Peek

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

blue

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: Zelensky's D.C. trip

2. 👀 Scoop: Biden's inflation-immigration pitch

Photo illustration of President Biden with immigrants walking towards the Texas border in the background and stripes

3. 🐘 GOP senators brush off "silly" McCarthy threat

Photo illustration of Kevin McCarthy holding his head beneath an angry elephant

4. 🗣️ Quoted: Leahy's goodbye

5. 🐦 Grassley's resolution

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 988 words ... 3.5 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: The House Ways and Means Committee voted tonight to publicly release six years of former President Trump's tax returns, following a years-long legal battle that reached the Supreme Court. 

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: 2024's Senate surprise

Illustration of the Capitol building's dome lifting upward, letting a glowing beam of light with a question mark ascend toward the sky 

2. 🔒 Straitjacket speakership

3. 💰 Rebels cash in on McCarthy misery

4. ✈️ Scoop: Emhoff to visit Europe with antisemitism envoy

5. 🖼️ Parting shot

Welcome back to Sneak. On the eve of the second anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, Donald Trump received a vote for House speaker.

Smart Brevity™ count: 974 words ... 3.5 minutes. 

⭐ Situational awareness: Tonight's is the last edition of Sneak for our all-star congressional reporter Alayna Treene, an Axios original who climbed the ranks to become one of the best-sourced reporters on Capitol Hill. Follow her on Twitter for news about her next role.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Brad Bonhall.

1 big thing: Biden's border run

2. 🚢 McCarthy's sinking ship

3. 👀 Trump juice dries up

4. 🎥 CSPAN's finest hour

5. 📸 Worth 1,000 words

Welcome back to Sneak. We're starting off tonight with a brief respite from the House speaker drama, which is quickly beginning to feel like "Groundhog Day."

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,060 words ... 3.5 minutes.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Brad Bonhall.

1 big thing: The ungovernable GOP

2. 🍿 Dems' day of delight

3. 💰 Cash can't buy McCarthy speakership

4. 🏛️ Charted: Senate stability

5. 🥱 Parting shot

🎊 Welcome back to Sneak for the first time this year. We hope you're well-rested, because 2023 is starting off with a bang — let's dive in.

Smart Brevity™ count: 901 words ... 3.5 minutes.

🚨 Situational awareness: Former President Trump declined to say today whether he's sticking by his endorsement of House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy for speaker, telling NBC News: "We'll see what happens."

National

Jeremy Adler, most recently a senior communications aide to former Rep. Liz Cheney and with the January 6 committee, is joining Adam Mendelsohn's firm Upland Workshop to grow their New York City presence, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Adler, who also served under former House Speaker Paul Ryan, will bring a crucial number of political contacts to the strategic communications firm and expand their work on the East Coast. 

He will simultaneously continue to work for Team Cheney and her future political endeavors as an advisor.

Details: Upland Workshop — which focuses on technology, media, finance, and sports — launched in March 2020 and has grown its team to 10 employees, some of whom are former journalists and worked for Vice President Kamala Harris and Nike.

Top clients include LeBron James and investment firm Main Street Advisors.

Mendelsohn, Upland's CEO, formerly served as Arnold Schwarzenegger's deputy chief of staff while he was governor of California, and has long worked with James and his business partner Maverick Carter.

What they're saying: "If you look at Meta, if you look at Uber, if you look at Amazon, Airbnb — some of the most dynamic companies have communications professionals in-house that came out of politics. When you work in the world Jeremy's coming from ... it teaches you about communications in a way that's very unique and different," Mendelsohn told Axios.

Mendelsohn emphasized that Upland "doesn't do partisan politics" but supports "the people and causes we need right now." 

“I’ve had the privilege of working with Congresswoman Cheney to creatively and strategically deliver her powerful message and I couldn't be more excited to bring what I’ve learned to the very dynamic people and organizations partnering with Upland Workshop," Adler said.

Top Cheney aide joins Adam Mendelsohn's Upland Workshop

Jeremy Adler will continue to work with the former congresswoman.

Congresswoman Liz Cheney in her office in the Cannon Building talks to her communications director Jeremy Adler

Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney talks with her aide Jeremy Adler. Photo: by David Hume Kennerly/Center for Creative Photography/University of Arizona via Getty Images

Liz Cheney

Jeremy Adler, most recently a senior communications aide to former Rep. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Liz Cheney" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/liz-cheney-donald-trump-candidate-2024" data-vars-content-id="051737cd-9c90-481b-b050-d3ee8868f1cd" data-vars-headline="Top Cheney aide joins Adam Mendelsohn&#x27;s Upland Workshop" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/liz-cheney-donald-trump-candidate-2024" target="_self">Liz Cheney</a> and with the January 6 committee, is joining Adam Mendelsohn&#x27;s firm Upland Workshop to grow their New York City presence, Axios has learned.Why it matters: Adler, who also served under former House Speaker Paul Ryan, will bring a crucial number of political contacts to the strategic communications firm and expand their work on the East Coast.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

On the second anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection, House Democrats said the speakership fight waged by 20 House GOP rebels is a sign of how little progress has been made toward unity.

Between the lines: "The whole campus is aware of this juxtaposition of these two dates and what they're attempting to do, which is to disrupt our democracy," said Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.).

Axios interviewed multiple Democrats on Thursday who are in the Gallery Group, the roughly 20 House Democrats who formed an impromptu support group after huddling together in the House Gallery on Jan. 6.

"I've been thanking my lucky stars all week that Republicans weren't in charge two years ago," said Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.).

Rep. Susan Wild (D-Penn.) said GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy cowered "into submission to the extreme fringe" after Jan. 6, "and today, his conference can’t even come together to perform a threshold action."

"It was the government shutdown in ’19, the insurrection of ’21, and now the current chaos of ’23," Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) told Axios. "The common denominator ... is having a handful of Republicans in the House of Representatives who have no interest in governing."

"It's not lost on us that some of these people were the actors that were involved on January 6," Kuster said, referencing House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Penn.), one of the GOP defectors. "Mr. Perry asked for a pardon because of illegal acts. That's a part of this that is so troublesome."

A spokesperson for Perry did not respond to a request to comment.

Between the lines: The House adjourned Thursday night after 11 failed ballots for McCarthy — but with Republican leadership saying they were optimistic about making progress.

"I'm not putting any timeline on it. We've got some progress going on. Members are talking," McCarthy said Thursday.

The last time a speaker fight went this many ballots was 1859.

Driving the news: President Biden will, for the first time in office, award the Presidential Citizens Medal to 12 people at a ceremony honoring “exemplary contributions to our democracy" on Friday.

Recipients include Capitol Police officers who were injured or died during the riot and election workers who fought off attempts from former President Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 election results.

Incoming House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also lead an event in the Capitol at 10 a.m. ET, multiple lawmakers tell Axios.

Shortly after, members of the "Gallery Group" are hosting Capitol Police officers for a lunch to commemorate the work they did on the same day two years ago, members of the group said.

House Democrats connect Jan. 6 to GOP's speakership fight

The anniversary serves as a reminder of how little progress has been made toward unity in the last two years.

Security barricades the door of the House chamber as protesters try to break in on January 6, 2021. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Jan. 6

Axios AM

Regardless of who is elected speaker, House Republicans have systematically gutted the power of their leaders — and institutionalized de facto anarchy.

Why it matters: Long gone are the days of rank-and-file members pining for money, endorsements or committee assignments from their top leaders. Now, it's the rank-and-file lawmakers — and outside allies juiced by social media — holding the real power.

Kevin McCarthy's desperate scramble to win the speakership has made things a lot worse for any future leader — thanks to a series of concessions he privately knows are anathema to sane governance.

And it got worse last night: After losing his sixth vote for speaker in two days — leaving the House with no official members, rules or committees — McCarthy tried to pacify the GOP rebels with even deeper concessions.

Earlier, McCarthy had proposed that any five Republicans could call for a vote to boot the speaker at any time. Last night, he went down to one — giving any random House Republican veto power like Sen. Joe Manchin had in the Senate for the past two years. 

One House Republican member told Axios that the cave to the detractors is "an amazing deal they’d be dumb to turn down."

Such a rule isn't unprecedented. But it would badly weaken the office McCarthy is prostrating himself to win.

Data: Office of the House Clerk; Chart: Axios Visuals

Reality check: Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group points out that picking a speaker "is arguably the easiest vote of the Congress; it only gets harder from here (See: ceiling, debt)."

What we're hearing: Newt Gingrich — who led the Republican revolution of 1994, then was speaker until 1999 — told me he "can't imagine how one could run the House with the blackmailers as self-righteous and militant as they currently are."

Adding in the prospect of a 2024 presidential primary fight among "Never Trump" and "Always Trump" Republicans, Gingrich added: "I think we are in deeper trouble as a party than any time since 1964."

The bottom line: This week's leadership mutiny could become the norm.

The GOP's institutionalized anarchy

His desperate scramble to win the speakership has made things a lot worse for any future leader.

Illustration of a large fist coming down on a small podium about to crush it. 

Kevin McCarthy

Regardless of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="who is elected speaker" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/04/house-speaker-vote-kevin-mccarthy" data-vars-content-id="538e96cb-a9aa-426e-95c2-e5d7f76693ec" data-vars-headline="The GOP&#x27;s institutionalized anarchy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/04/house-speaker-vote-kevin-mccarthy" target="_self">who is elected speaker</a>, House Republicans have systematically gutted the power of their leaders — and institutionalized de facto anarchy.Why it matters: Long gone are the days of rank-and-file members pining for money, endorsements or committee assignments from their top leaders. Now, it&#x27;s the rank-and-file lawmakers — and outside allies juiced by social media — holding the real power.

House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy offered fresh concessions on Wednesday evening in an attempt to keep his speakership bid alive, multiple GOP sources told Axios.

Between the lines: It's unclear whether the 20 House GOP rebels will accept the offer, although one GOP member called the plan "an amazing deal they'd be dumb to turn down." 

McCarthy's proposal, according to sources familiar with the plan:

One member motion to vacate, instead of five.

More House Freedom Caucus members on the House Rules Committee.

Promises to hold votes on controversial term limit and border security bills. 

What's next: The House resumes at noon eastern time on Thursday.

CNN reported details of the concessions earlier on Wednesday evening. 

McCarthy sweetens his offer to House GOP rebels

The House resumes at noon eastern time on Thursday.

Photo: Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Congress

House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy offered fresh concessions on Wednesday evening in an attempt to keep his <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="speakership bid alive" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/04/house-speaker-vote-kevin-mccarthy" data-vars-content-id="7df3bddb-0736-4694-ade9-6cea1bed9da6" data-vars-headline="McCarthy sweetens his offer to House GOP rebels" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/04/house-speaker-vote-kevin-mccarthy" target="_self">speakership bid alive</a>, multiple GOP sources told Axios.Between the lines: It&#x27;s unclear whether the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="20 House GOP rebels" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/04/republican-leader-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote" data-vars-content-id="7df3bddb-0736-4694-ade9-6cea1bed9da6" data-vars-headline="McCarthy sweetens his offer to House GOP rebels" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/04/republican-leader-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote" target="_self">20 House GOP rebels</a> will accept the offer, although one GOP member called the plan &quot;an amazing deal they&#x27;d be dumb to turn down.&quot;

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy lost his bid for the speakership on the first round of voting Tuesday — and shortly thereafter, he lost a second ballot and a third.

Why it matters: Ballots will continue until someone gets a majority of votes — but it's unclear how long that will take. The House can't start regular business until a speaker is elected. 

State of play: Lawmakers decided to adjourn until noon Wednesday after hitting a stalemate. 

Members of the 118th Congress can't be sworn in, the House can't set rules to govern itself, and it can't consider legislation or create committee assignments.

McCarthy told reporters on Tuesday night he plans to stay in the speakership race and has the backing of former President Donald Trump.

The Californian Republican believes he can win the role if he doesn't 218 votes, a majority of the House, if some Congress members are absent or vote "present."

"Democrats have 212 votes; you get 213 votes, and the others don't say another name," he said. "That's how you can win."

Flashback: It took two months — and 133 ballots — for the House to elect its speaker in 1856.

The last time the House needed more than one ballot to confirm a speaker was 1923. 

The big picture: On the first two ballots, the same 19 Republicans blocked McCarthy by voting for other candidates. On the second ballot, they all voted for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). On the third, the tally grew to 20 Republicans voting for Jordan.  

All Democrats voted for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) — the first Black person nominated to lead either chamber of Congress — on every ballot.

The 20 House Republicans who voted at some point against McCarthy:

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional developments.

House adjourns after anti-McCarthy mutiny paralyzes House speaker vote

The House can't start regular business until a speaker is elected.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="lost his bid for the speakership" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote" data-vars-content-id="fa46cb55-ec1c-480a-a7c0-4d10c3b53e57" data-vars-headline="House adjourns after anti-McCarthy mutiny paralyzes House speaker vote" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote" target="_self">lost his bid for the speakership</a> on the first round of voting Tuesday — and shortly thereafter, he lost a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="second ballot" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-second-ballot" data-vars-content-id="fa46cb55-ec1c-480a-a7c0-4d10c3b53e57" data-vars-headline="House adjourns after anti-McCarthy mutiny paralyzes House speaker vote" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-second-ballot" target="_self">second ballot</a> and a third.Why it matters: Ballots will continue until someone gets a majority of votes — but it&#x27;s unclear how long that will take. The House can&#x27;t start regular business <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="until a speaker is elected" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/house-speaker-election-congress-mccarthy-1856" data-vars-content-id="fa46cb55-ec1c-480a-a7c0-4d10c3b53e57" data-vars-headline="House adjourns after anti-McCarthy mutiny paralyzes House speaker vote" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/house-speaker-election-congress-mccarthy-1856" target="_self">until a speaker is elected</a>.

Alayna Treene

Stories

House Democrats connect Jan. 6 to GOP's speakership fight

Top Cheney aide joins Adam Mendelsohn's Upland Workshop

The GOP's institutionalized anarchy

McCarthy sweetens his offer to House GOP rebels

House adjourns after anti-McCarthy mutiny paralyzes House speaker vote

Newsletter editions

👀 2024's Senate surprise

🇲🇽 Biden's border visit

🚨 The ungovernable GOP

👀 New MAGA machine

🇺🇦 Zelensky's D.C. trip