Axios

Trump VP hopeful J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and vulnerable Democrat Sherrod Brown also of Ohio are teaming up to pressure Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and skeptical Republicans to pass a rail safety measure.

Why it matters: A damning new federal report on last year's disastrous train derailment in their home state of Ohio is lending fresh urgency to the meaty, bipartisan legislation — even in the heat of an election year,

The biggest post-debate polling bump in the last four presidential cycles helped Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee in 2012, make up an average of 4.6 percentage points in national polls.

• But Romney's lead over then-President Obama didn't last.

Why it matters: A good (or bad) first debate can show up in the polls a week after the debate, according to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls.

• It doesn't seal the fate of either candidate, however.
• Obama recovered from an uninspired debate effort in 2012 and built a healthy lead in the national polls, which translated into a victory on Election Day.
• In 2020, Joe Biden increased his lead over then-President Trump after their first messy meeting with a net gain of nearly 3 points, after coming into the debate with a 6-point advantage.

Flashback: After Trump's first showdown with Hillary Clinton in 2016, watched by a record 84 million viewers, Clinton saw a net gain of about 1 point nationally, adding to her lead.

• That polling dynamic persisted until Election Day, when Clinton had a 3.2-point average advantage nationally.
• But Trump shocked many political observers, and some inside his campaign, by winning more electoral votes while losing the popular vote by 2.1 points.
• When Obama was a rising Democratic star in 2008, he saw a slight polling uptick after his first debate with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Obama held on for victory that November.

Zoom out: Debates don't happen in a vacuum, and other events influence voters' opinions.

• McCain's suspending of his campaign in late September 2008 because of the global financial crisis arguably affected that race more than the debate.
• The pandemic loomed large in the Trump-Biden race in 2020.

A solid performance in a second debate can help voters forget about a subpar first one, as then-President Reagan showed against former Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984.

Zoom in: The big question for both campaigns Thursday night is how they might recover (if warranted) without another debate scheduled until Sept. 10.

• Both candidates are sitting on huge piles of cash, with Trump and the Republican National Committee starting June with $171 million in their accounts, compared to $157 million for the Democrats.
• That has set up a summer ad campaign in which each side will be able to match the negative messaging from the other.

Former President Trump's estranged niece, Mary Trump, will join President Biden's debate spin room, the campaign said Thursday.

Why it matters: The Biden campaign is seeking to cast Trump as unfit for office by highlighting criticisms from people who were once in his inner circle — or in this case, someone who shares his last name.

Judge Aileen Cannon is opening the floor once again for prosecutors and former President Trump's legal team to debate Trump's challenges to evidence presented in the case over his alleged mishandling of classified documents.

Why it matters: Cannon, who was appointed to the bench by Trump, has been the target of intense scrutiny for her handling of the slow-moving case, with critics suggesting she may deliberately be setting a crawling pace.

The Bible must be incorporated into public Oklahoma classroom curriculums effective immediately, according to a new directive the state's superintendent announced Thursday.

Why it matters: The order is the latest move amid growing white Christian nationalism to challenge the country's long-held doctrine of separation of church and state and seek public funding of religion in schools amid a conservative supermajority U.S. Supreme Court.

America will tune in Thursday night when President Biden and former President Trump go head-to-head in the first presidential debate of 2024. Let's have some fun.

Why it matters: The Biden-Trump rematch has divided some voters and disengaged others. One issue where we can all agree: At some point during Thursday night's showdown, our current president is probably gonna say, "C'mon, man."

The Biden administration is expected to soon release 500-lb. bombs that were part of a weapons shipment to Israel put on hold in April over U.S. concerns about the Israel Defense Forces' military operation in Rafah, one U.S. and one Israeli official told Axios.

The big picture: The move suggests the U.S. is now less concerned about Israel possibly using these bombs in Gaza and that the White House wants to decrease some of the tension between President Biden and Israel's supporters over his decision to withhold this specific shipment.

The Supreme Court struck a serious blow to federal regulators today — and more hits are likely on the way, Axios Markets co-author Emily Peck writes.

• In a 6-3 decision, the court ruled that defendants accused of fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission have the right to a jury trial.

🏦 Why it matters: The SEC, like many other agencies, often relies on administrative law judges who are part of the executive branch, rather than the judicial system.

• Forcing the SEC to take more enforcement actions to court will be far more expensive and time-consuming — which could mean the agency will end up bringing fewer of those actions.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will host a "Real Debate" on Thursday night simultaneous to the face-off between President Biden and former President Trump.

Why it matters: Kennedy failed to qualify for the first debate, and his campaign has alleged the exclusion represents "collusion between two establishment parties."

The U.S. military's aid pier for Gaza is under review by the inspectors general for the Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), they announced Thursday.

Why it matters: The pier is meant to help stave off famine in Gaza as other aid routes into the enclave have closed and the humanitarian crisis has worsened because of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

House Republicans are at each other's throats over a right-wing hardliner's repeated efforts to restrict funding for in vitro fertilization services.

Why it matters: Most Republicans have strained to put their pro-IVF politics on display, with two GOP lawmakers planning to introduce a bill aimed at bolstering the party's credibility on the issue, Axios has learned.

In a potentially groundbreaking decision, the Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that defendants accused of fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission have the right to a jury trial.

Why it matters: The decision in SEC v. Jarkesy deals a serious blow to the administrative state, part of a yearslong project by the financial sector and conservatives to weaken federal power.

1. An apparent attempted coup rocked Bolivia yesterday when members of the armed forces drove a tank into the plaza facing the presidential palace in La Paz.

• Juan José Zúñiga, who was head of the armed forces until yesterday afternoon, told local media he sought to liberate "political prisoners" like former President Jeanine Áñez, who is facing charges of human rights crimes.
• Current President Luis Arce replaced Zúñiga during the standoff, and the general was arrested.

2. Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, in power from 2014 to 2022, was sentenced to 45 years in prison yesterday in a U.S. court in New York.

Our hats off to Tom Hoebbel, who is in the final editing stages of his new documentary film, "¿Are We There Yet? Compassionate Explorations Into Issues of Immigration."

• Tom, a professional photographer and filmmaker who lives in Ithaca, New York, is aiming for his movie to premiere in September.
• The documentary aims to dispel misinformation about immigration. Immigrants tell their own stories about why they came to the U.S.

Congrats on your hard work, Tom!

🎤 Have you recently accomplished something you're proud of? Let us know by replying to this email!

Rappers Fat Joe and E-40 will join President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden at a post-debate campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina on Friday, the campaign announced Thursday.

Why it matters: As Biden and Trump court Black voters ahead of November, both candidates have turned to rappers as surrogates.

U.S. homeowners and renters can now use tax credits included in the $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act to help pay for energy-efficient home improvements to lower their carbon footprint and save money.

Why it matters: The benefits are meant to help climate-proof not just individual homes but whole neighborhoods and communities while promoting clean energy investments and jobs.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) issued a rare series of sanctions against Boeing after the aerospace giant "blatantly" violated federal investigative regulations, the board announced Thursday.

Why it matters: The investigative agency said it was coordinating with the Department of Justice's fraud division, which is investigating whether Boeing breached its obligations under a 2021 settlement to avoid criminal charges stemming from two fatal crashes.

The Supreme Court took what could have been a heated topic at Thursday's presidential debate off the table by pushing its decision on former President Trump's legal immunity case for at least 24 hours.

Why it matters: Trump's legal woes are at the center of both candidates' campaigns. For President Biden, it's because he knows some voters might shy away from backing a convicted felon. For Trump, it's because he claims to be the victim of politically motivated prosecutions.

The Supreme Court on Thursday dismissed a closely watched abortion case — a temporary victory for abortion-rights supporters that allows doctors to perform emergency abortions in Idaho.

The big picture: The court did not resolve the case's central questions about how state abortion bans and federal directives on emergency health care mesh.

President Biden and former President Trump will have a rare moment Thursday together onstage to make their cases for a second term before the many swing and "double-hater" voters they're targeting.

Why it matters: The earliest-ever presidential debate on CNN could also be the first time many voters dial into the 2024 race and witness the two familiar candidates challenge each other's policy positions.

Former President Trump revealed his VP short list earlier this month when he requested financial and other documents from eight contenders.

Breaking it down: Sen. J.D. Vance and Sen. Tim Scott have long been among the favorites, while speculation has been growing around North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. Marco Rubio.

UCLA and Arizona State University have teamed up on a new initiative that will help policymakers use U.S. census data to push for health, education, housing, and employment reforms affecting Latinos.

Why it matters: Data on Latinos is difficult to access in one location. The new initiative will help policy advocates and community leaders learn how to navigate droves of data to better advocate for Latino communities.

Michelle Obama has privately expressed frustration over the Biden family largely exiling her close friend Kathleen Buhle after Buhle's messy divorce from Hunter Biden, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.

• Why it matters: The family tensions — and the former first lady's disdain for partisan politics — help explain why one of the most popular Democratic voices hasn't campaigned for President Biden's re-election, the sources said, even as former President Obama has been a willing surrogate.

The Biden campaign is using Thursday's debate to launch a new offensive against Trump allies' radical plans to transform the U.S. government, known as "Project 2025."

Why it matters: The Biden campaign wants to convince jaded voters that a second Trump presidency poses grave risks to the country. Biden officials see Project 2025 — which calls for an unprecedented expansion of presidential power — as a useful blueprint for what Trump's return would bring.

Republicans are more invested in watching the face-off between President Biden and former President Trump than Democrats or independents, according to Syracuse University-Ipsos polling shared with Axios.

Why it matters: Trump and his team have sought in recent days to temper expectations and conservative media narratives that he'll outperform Biden. Tonight, these will be put to the test.

Former First Lady Michelle Obama privately has expressed frustration over how the Biden family largely exiled her close friend Kathleen Buhle after Buhle's messy divorce from Hunter Biden, two people familiar with the relationship told Axios.

Why it matters: The family tensions — and the former first lady's disdain for partisan politics — are partly why one of the Democrats' most popular voices hasn't campaigned for President Biden's re-election, the sources said, even as former President Obama has been a willing surrogate.

Latinos accounted for more than 70% of the overall growth of the U.S. population between 2022 and 2023 — driven mainly through high Hispanic birth rates, new U.S. Census estimates released Thursday show.

Why it matters: The Hispanic population is expanding at a much faster rate than the non-Latino population, and its growth comes as the far-right, racist "white replacement theory" gains traction among more Republicans.

Steve Bannon is praising House Republicans for supporting the former Trump adviser's emergency appeal to the Supreme Court to stay out of prison.

Why it matters: The Trump-aligned America First Legal filed an amicus brief to the high court with Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) on Wednesday in support of Bannon, who's due to report to prison to serve a four-month sentence by July for defying a congressional subpoena related to the Jan. 6 attack.

Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon's emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to stay out of prison should be rejected, the Department of Justice wrote in a legal filing on Wednesday.

Why it matters: House Republican leaders are backing his request, but DOJ prosecutors wrote that his case doesn't meet the "extraordinary" criteria that would allow him to remain free as he appeals his contempt of Congress conviction.

GOP lawmakers who weren't part of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's inner circle see an increased opportunity to rise in the leadership ranks now that McCarthy has left the House.

Why it matters: All but a few members of McCarthy's inner circle have retired or are planning to, creating openings for a different crop of lawmakers to secure committee gavels and other influential positions next year.

Former President Trump's top VP wannabes are making the pilgrimage to Atlanta to be close at hand during the first presidential debate — even though they can't be in the audience.

Why it matters: Veepstakes speculation has reached a fever pitch amid rumors that a decision could come as soon as this week, public trolling by top Trump campaign officials and a round of televised interviews with the top contenders.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman's (D-N.Y.) brutal primary loss Tuesday is setting off sirens for another embattled member of the progressive "Squad": Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.).

Why it matters: Like Bowman, Bush is a vocal Israel critic who has been weakened by scandal and is facing a tough, AIPAC-backed centrist challenger.