Poll: Republicans more invested in Biden-Trump debate
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Republicans are more invested in watching the face-off between President Biden and former President Trump than Democrats or independents, according to Syracuse University-Ipsos polling shared with Axios.
Why it matters: Trump and his team have sought in recent days to temper expectations and conservative media narratives that he'll outperform Biden. Tonight, these will be put to the test.
- 75% of Republicans in the May survey said they're likely to watch a televised debate between the rivals, compared with 60% of Democrats and 58% of independents.
- A smaller subset describing themselves as "very likely" to watch included 45% of Republicans but just 30% of Democrats and 28% of independents.
Zoom in: Many Americans who rely on conservative media, word of mouth or social media snippets "really believe this narrative that Biden's this senile old man who's secretly or not-so-secretly controlled" by Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump's "going to clean the floor with him," said Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson.
- "The big question is going to be, are they informed by what happens in this debate?" Jackson said. "Historically, more people learn about the debate from the news coverage than the actual debate.
- "There are big swaths of Americans who are just not spending a lot of time with mainstream news coverage — but social media, friends, nothing. That speaks to the challenge: How do you reach people who are sort of unreachable?"
Zoom out: The American Identity survey, conducted by Ipsos for Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship, shows how differently partisans see the stakes of the election.
- 49% of respondents (81% of Democrats, 52% of independents, 14% of Republicans) see Trump as a "major threat" to the American democratic system and rule of law.
- 34% of respondents (65% of Republicans, 32% of independents, 4% of Democrats) see Biden as a "major threat."
- 57% of Democrats but just 41% of independents and one-third of Republicans align with the idea that "choosing the wrong leaders in 2024 could end democracy in the U.S. as we know it and lead to violence and repression."
- 59% of Republicans, 49% of independents and 38% of Democrats agreed more with the statement that "America will survive no matter who is elected, but our reputation could take a hit if we elect the wrong leaders."
Disclosure: Axios senior contributor Margaret Talev is also the director of Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship.
Methodology: This Syracuse University/Ipsos poll was conducted May 17-19, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,017 adults age 18 or older.
Editor's note: This story and chart have been corrected to say that 60% of Democrats said they were likely to watch a televised debate between Biden and Trump (not 61%.)
