1 big thing: Why Trump is rallying in New Mexico tomorrow

Illustration of President Trump hugging a cactus

2. Corey Lewandowski's Senate tryout

Illustration of Corey Lewandowski with a spotlight on hm and number pinned to his chest in the shape of the Capitol building

3. Israel's elections: Netanyahu closing in on victory

Netanyahu announces Sept. 10 that he'll annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank if he's re-elected.

4. Beijing is the new Davos?

5. Democratic presidential rivals go after NRA in gun video

6. Sneak Peek diary

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops.

Please encourage your friends and colleagues to sign up.

I'm Margaret Talev, Axios' politics and White House editor, guest hosting for newlywed Jonathan Swan. We welcome your feedback: margaret@axios.com.

Smart Brevity count: 1,470 words (5.5 minutes).

President Trump tweeted that he has authorized release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "if needed" following the attack on major oil processing and production sites in Saudi Arabia.

On Sept. 22, Trump will travel to Houston to participate in an event with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At the event, "Howdy, Modi! Shared Dreams, Bright Futures,” Modi will address the Indian-American community and reaffirm the strategic partnership between the two countries.

National

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Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: Trump's gift to Biden 

Illustration of President Elect Biden walking down a red carpet made out of ribbon towards a White House shaped box

🇺🇸 On this reset day for America, here's the latest from Margaret Talev, Axios managing editor for politics, and her team. 

I'd love to hear what you think: mike@axios.com.

 Smart Brevity™ count: 349 words ... 1½ minutes.

🎧  Listen to Jonathan Swan on Axios' new investigative podcast series, "How it happened: Trump's last stand."

And catch up with his fly-on-the-wall "Off the rails" series here.

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The news, in your inbox, as soon as it happens.

Axios AM Thought Bubble

Data: Axios/Ipsos; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios

About one in three Americans prefers strong unelected leaders to weak elected leaders and says presidents should be able to remove judges over their decisions, according to the latest findings from our Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index.

Why it matters: The findings from this poll shatter the myth that Americans overwhelmingly agree on a common set of democratic values around checks and balances on elected leaders, protection of minority rights and freedom of speech.

They're also a reality check against President Biden's speech that portrayed threats to democracy as solely driven by Republican supporters of former President Trump who refuse to accept that he lost the 2020 election.

What we're watching: In this poll, significant minorities of Republicans and Democrats supported non-democratic norms in about equal percentages — and Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say presidents should be able to remove judges when their decisions go against the national interest.

Many Americans also believe the government should follow the will of the majority even at the expense of ethnic and religious minority groups' civil rights.

And roughly a third said the federal government should be able to prosecute members of the news media who make offensive or unpatriotic statements.

Respondents younger than 35 or with household incomes below $75,000 a year were more likely to favor strong unelected leaders and to support prosecuting the media or empowering presidents to remove judges.  

The big picture: If you're looking for good news in this poll, it is primarily that the people who embrace the anti-democratic views are still in the minority. 

But the findings are a reminder that for all of the attention and congressional hearings around the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, anti-democratic views take many forms.

What they're saying: "There's a lot of anti-democratic sentiment, a lot more than we might have expected," said Justin Gest, an associate professor at George Mason University who studies the politics of demographic change and advises the project.

The survey's questions pose "hard tests" for society, Gest said — tradeoffs between "what's expedient and best for the individual, and what actually sustains the integrity of our political institutions."

Values like minority rights, separation of church and state and freedom of the press are "key foundations" of democracy but "they're far from being fully supported by Americans," Gest said. "These are things you'd think would be universal."

By the numbers: One in three surveyed agreed that it's better to have a strong, unelected leader than a weak elected leader — with a larger share of Republicans (42%) than Democrats (31%) sharing that view.

With judges, it was Democrats who outnumbered Republicans: 42% of Democrats agreed that the president should be able to remove judges when their decisions go against the national interest, compared to 29% of Republicans and 35% overall. That may reflect the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and its decision earlier this year overturning Roe v Wade.

More than a third of Americans (38%) agreed that the government should act in the interests of the majority even if it conflicts with ethnic and religious minority groups' rights, with Republicans (39%) and Democrats (38%) agreeing at roughly the same rate. The question doesn't specify which ethnic or religious minorities.

28% said the government should consult religious leaders before making decisions — including 33% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats — while 57% disagreed.

A third of Americans — 34% among both Republicans and Democrats — said the federal government should have the power to prosecute members of the news media who make offensive or unpatriotic statements. A slight majority (51%) disagreed.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted Sept. 1-2 by Ipsos on their online survey panels in English. This poll is based on a sample of 1,001 general population adults age 18 or older, weighted on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and location to be nationally representative.

The credibility interval is ±3.8 percentage points for results based on the entire sample of adults.

Two Americas Index: Democracy deniers

The new poll suggests a large minority of Americans is willing to get rid of basic democratic norms.

Political polarization

Politics & Policy

The FBI seized documents from former President Trump's home that may have been kept in violation of the Espionage Act, as well as other federal laws, according to documents released yesterday.

Why it matters: The search related to highly sensitive documents that could carry national security concerns.

Trump on Friday afternoon said in a statement that "it was all declassified" and insisted that "they didn't need to 'seize' anything. They could have had it at anytime."

The Justice Department has rebutted those claims.

Driving the news: Affidavit B in the redacted search warrant materials made public on Friday called for seizure of "all physical documents and records constituting evidence, contraband, fruits of crime, or other items illegally possessed in violation of" 18 U.S. Code § 793, 2071, or 1519.c

That covers the Espionage Act as well as laws against removing government records or obstructing justice.

The search warrant described Mar-a-Lago as a 17-acre estate with 58 bedrooms and 33 bathrooms. The search applied to the "45 office" as well as storage rooms and other rooms used by the former president and his staff. It didn't cover private guest suites or other areas for third parties and not available to Trump or his staff. 

What they're saying: "It doesn't matter if he was holding on to the information because he was using it as memorabilia or wanted to trade it for financial benefit" or whether his motives were "petty or corrupt," said Ryan Goodman, an NYU law school professor and former special counsel at the Department of Defense and founding co-editor of the Just Security online national security forum.

"That's why I think he's in very serious trouble," Goodman said. "If the Justice Department wanted to pursue a criminal case, based on the available information known to the public to date, they appear to have a very strong case."

But, but, but: The search — and the many boxes and binders seized — does not guarantee there will be an indictment, Goodman said.

Obtaining and securing the most sensitive documents may have been the overarching objective.

Steve Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas, told Axios that "we should be careful" not to rush to conclusions because "there's still a whole lot we don't know."

Still, he said, a reference to the Espionage Act on a search warrant for the home of an ex-U.S. president "is really quite stunning."

"This is about more than just, ‘President Trump took some stuff home with him that he shouldn't have.’"

Details: The inventory shows the FBI removed 11 sets of classified information from the Trump property, including some marked as "top secret." Agents collected ...

"Various classified/TS/SCI documents" — referring to documents containing "top secret" or "sensitive compartmented information."

 21 boxes of "miscellaneous confidential documents," "miscellaneous secret documents" or "miscellaneous top secret documents."

The executive grant of clemency for Trump's associate Roger Stone, "Info re: President of France," a leatherbound box of documents, two binders of photos and a handwritten note.

What we're watching: The affidavit to support the search warrant was not included in the materials unsealed Friday. Its contents could reveal a great deal more about the circumstances and information behind the execution of the search and seizure.

Mar-a-Lago search warrant's clues

This speaks to the extreme sensitivity and national security nature of items believed to be withheld from the government.

Mar-a-Lago. Photo:  Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Donald Trump

The FBI seized documents from former President Trump&#x27;s home that may have been kept in violation of the Espionage Act, as well as other federal laws, according to documents released yesterday.Why it matters: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="The search" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/10/trump-speculation-flipper-fbi-search" data-vars-content-id="9b989f74-63b2-470b-962b-a7af626619f3" data-vars-headline="Mar-a-Lago search warrant&#x27;s clues" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/10/trump-speculation-flipper-fbi-search" target="_self">The search</a> related to highly sensitive documents that could carry national security concerns.

Joe Biden has defied expectations, earning a legacy as a president who got big things done with a deeply divided Congress. 

The big question for Democrats: Can the same man whose dismal approval ratings have dragged them down all year now rescue their House and Senate majorities?

Driving the news: The Inflation Reduction Act is expected to clear the House later this week on a glide path to President Biden's signature. 

"I ran for president promising to make government work for working families again, and that is what this bill does — period," President Biden said after Sunday's Senate passage.

Why it matters: It will join a list of hard-fought legislation shaping the U.S. economy, society and foreign policy for decades to come:

The American Rescue Plan (COVID stimulus)

Confirmation of the first Black female Supreme Court justice

CHIPS (semiconductor manufacturing and U.S. competitiveness with China)

NATO expansion to include Finland and Sweden

Between the lines: While some of that was accomplished with bipartisan support, some has relied on close party-line votes and testing the limits of the budget reconciliation process.

The big picture: The Senate's passage Sunday of the $740 billion bill — with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote —  also follows a string of non-legislative successes for Biden.

The CIA's killing of Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, a huge jobs numbers boost and a resounding victory in Kansas for abortion-rights supporters that offers new signs that the issue could help Democrats in the fall.

Biden's approval rating has been stuck below 40%, dragging down Democrats facing challenges in November.

Some of the effects of the reconciliation bill — including lower prescription drug prices for a broad number of Americans — may take months or years to be felt.

And, as Obamacare showed Dems in their 2010 "shellacking," getting major legislation through Congress doesn't always help the party in power — at least not in the short run.  

Zoom in: The legislation opens the door to Medicare negotiating lower prescription drug prices and is expected to push the nation toward clean energy by making it cheaper. 

It's the largest investment in clean energy and emissions cuts the Senate has ever passed, Axios' Andrew Freedman notes, with incentives for electric vehicles, wind and solar electricity and direct air capture and hydrogen production.

What's next: The political challenge for Biden and his party now turns in large part to messaging — from the bully pulpit and in a campaign advertising blitz between now and November.

The abortion vote in Kansas underscores the impacts targeting messaging and advertising can have ahead of an election.

Republicans are vowing to counter Democrats' victory lap by raising concerns about higher spending, taxes, inflation and one-party legislation.

Biden's BFD

Can the same leader whose dismal approval ratings have dragged Democrats down all year now save their House or Senate majorities in November?

Joe Biden

<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Joe Biden " data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/joe-biden" data-vars-content-id="e811fda5-e66f-4c9d-9308-f39ce0918931" data-vars-headline="Biden&#x27;s BFD" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/joe-biden" target="_self">Joe Biden </a>has defied expectations, earning a legacy as a president who got big things done with a deeply divided Congress. The big question for Democrats: Can the same man whose dismal approval ratings have dragged them down all year now rescue their House and Senate majorities?

Axios World

Correction: The Fall of Kabul date was fixed to show it happened in 2021, not 2022. Data: Gallup; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban a year ago sparked a new crisis for the Afghan people and a sobering reality check about what two decades of western intervention couldn't accomplish. It also coincided with a political drop for President Biden.

Why it matters: The economy, not foreign policy, is the biggest driver of presidential approval ratings in the U.S., pollsters and political scientists say. But  a year later, it's impossible to deny that aspects of the Afghanistan exit affected Americans' views of Biden's ability to deliver on his promises. 

The chaotic scenes from Kabul also damaged Biden's relations with allies overseas — though his handling this year of the Ukraine crisis has restored much of the lost confidence, diplomats told Axios.

The exit of U.S. forces from Afghanistan after more than two decades was set in motion by former President Trump and completed on President Biden's watch.

By the numbers Biden's approval rating was 49% at the start of August 2021, according to Gallup polling. A month later, after the completion of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, it was 43%. Today, it is 38%. 

"Yes, kind of," is the best answer to whether the U.S. exit from Afghanistan hurt Biden's standing with Americans in a lasting way, Mohamed Younis, editor-in-chief of Gallup News, told Axios.

"Historically, what we’ve found is that the economy is always really the driving factor of how Americans rate the president," he said. "When we ask people, 'What are you going to vote on,' foreign affairs is almost never mentioned.

 "The presidential approval rating definitely dipped after Afghanistan, and it’s hard to argue that it had no impact," Younis said. At the same time, "It’s hard to solidly conclude everything fell apart because of Afghanistan."

"It’s not like things dropped and held where they were. They kept falling. A lot of other things we know are historically way more important to Americans were also unfolding."

Between the lines: Republicans' already very low approval of Biden, and independents' divided approval, dropped during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the polling shows, and hasn't rebounded.

Democrats' very high approval of Biden also declined during the withdrawal, then rebounded, only to begin a longer slide since the fourth quarter of last year as inflation took off. 

The Delta variant of COVID and rising inflation were also beginning to take off right around the same time as the withdrawal, and those trends also hurt Biden.

What we're hearing: The chaotic scenes from Kabul also damaged Biden's relations with allies overseas, some of which were dismayed by what they saw as a lack of coordination and preparation from Biden's team.

"It was a shock and it will remain a shock. There was also kind of brutality in leaving that way, and in the fall," one diplomat from a close ally told Axios, describing the decision as "another version of America First." 

Consultation with coalition partners about the withdrawal had been "more cosmetic than profound," the diplomat added.

"We were very surprised, but I don't think we ever thought, 'These people are incompetent,'" another diplomat from a close ally says. "I think sometimes they come with a know-it-all approach that leads them to make mistakes."

Both diplomats say confidence in Biden has grown significantly since the fall of Kabul, particularly due to his handling of the Ukraine crisis.

"You could see the difference in the approach, in the messaging. It was much more coordinated and it was easier to speak with one voice [as allies]," the first diplomat says.

 "Definitely we saw an improvement of the U.S. image over the past year, and it definitely starts with Ukraine," the second diplomat says. "We see that the U.S. is not withdrawing from the world."

White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement that the Intelligence Community has assessed that “al-Qa’ida has not reconstituted its presence in Afghanistan since the U.S. departure in August 2021 – and that Ayman al-Zawahiri was the only key al-Qa’ida figure who attempted to reestablish their presence in country."

Biden “has rebuilt our alliances and restored our credibility on the world stage after four years of former President Trump’s presidency damaged America’s reputation and left us increasingly isolated internationally and from our allies and partners,” Watson said. 

“ Look no further than our response to Russia’s war on Ukraine and how President Biden has rallied the world and built a coalition of countries to support Ukraine and support measures to hold Russia accountable.”

Editor's note: This story was updated to add that the exit of U.S. forces from Afghanistan was set in motion by former President Trump and completed on President Biden's watch.

Afghanistan withdrawal began Biden's political slide

The fall of Kabul coincided politically with a point of no return for President Biden.

Afghanistan withdrawal

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fall of Kabul" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/08/16/how-kabul-fell-so-fast-taliban-afghanistan" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/08/16/how-kabul-fell-so-fast-taliban-afghanistan" target="_self">fall of Kabul</a> to the Taliban a year ago sparked a new crisis for the Afghan people and a sobering reality check about what two decades of western intervention couldn&#x27;t accomplish. It also coincided with a political drop for President Biden.Why it matters: The economy, not foreign policy, is the biggest driver of presidential approval ratings in the U.S., pollsters and political scientists say. But a year later, it&#x27;s impossible to deny that aspects of the Afghanistan exit affected Americans&#x27; views of Biden&#x27;s ability to deliver on his promises.

"Self-silencing" — people saying what they think others want to hear rather than what they truly feel — is skewing our understanding of how Americans really feel about abortion, COVID-19 precautions, what children are taught in school and other hot-button issues, a new study finds.

Why it matters: The best predictor of private behavior is private opinion. People's actual views are far more likely than their stated views to drive consumer and social behavior — and voting. 

"When we're misreading what we all think, it actually causes false polarization," said Todd Rose, co-founder and president of Populace, the Massachusetts-based firm that undertook the study. "It actually destroys social trust. And it tends to historically make social progress all but impossible." 

The big picture: People are often more moderate than they'll readily admit when "being pulled toward a vocal fringe," whether left or right, Rose said.

But in some cases, he said, people reshape their privately held views to conform to what they think their group believes, even if that assessment is inaccurate.

The gap between real and stated views can have a generational impact, he said, because media amplifies perceptions that then cue young adults: "This generation's illusions tend to become next generation's private opinion." 

How it works: Respondents were provided a mix of traditional polling questions and other questions using a list experiment method, or item-count technique, that provides them with a greater sense of anonymity. This process allows researchers to find the gap between what people say versus how they privately feel.

By the numbers: On abortion, the study found men are much less likely to privately agree with the idea that the choice to have an abortion should be left solely to a woman and her doctor (45%) than would say so publicly (60%).

Republicans, meanwhile, were less likely to privately say Roe v. Wade should be overturned (51%) than publicly (64%).

On COVID-19, only 44% of women privately feel wearing masks was effective at stopping COVID-19 spread, though 63% felt they should say they did.

An astonishing four times as many Democrats say CEOs should take a public stand on social issues (44%) than actually care (11%).

On education, Americans overall are privately more supportive of parents having more influence over curriculum (60%) than proclaim this publicly (52%).

That may help explain why GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin's messaging on schools appealed to swing voters in Virginia last year, and why GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) championed "parents' rights" in signing prohibitions on classroom instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity.

One in three Democrats think parents should have more influence over public school curriculum — even though only one in four say so publicly. Among independents, 71% agree privately agree, though only 55% say so when asked in a more direct polling format; 85% of Republicans privately feel that way. 

Yes, but: Americans are actually less concerned about teachers talking about gender identity or how much public schools focus on racism than they say publicly. 

Only about half of Americans actually think it is inappropriate for schools to discuss gender identity in kindergarten through 3rd grade, compared to the 63% who say so publicly.

This misconception is particularly stark among independents. Just 42% privately have an issue with discussions about gender identity in K-3rd, despite 67% saying they take an issue with it publicly. 

Even though 63% of Republicans privately said they believed racism was too much of a focus in public schools — far more than Democrats or independents— the number is a lot lower than the 80% who felt compelled to say so publicly.

The intrigue: The study found the biggest disparities among Hispanic respondents and political independents. On 14 out of 25 topics, these groups had double-digit gaps between what they say and believe.

Methodology: The survey was conducted for Populace by YouGov between May 23-June 8, 2022 among 3,334 respondents. The respondents were provided a mix of traditional polling questions and other questions using a list experiment method, which guarantees privacy.

These kind of results do not have the same MOE measurements as traditional public opinion polling 

In the list experiment survey, respondents are never asked to directly share their opinion. Instead, they read a list of statements and choose the number with which they agree. 

By comparing a group of people who see a list that includes the sensitive statement to a group who sees a list without it, inferences can be made about the prevalence of that private opinion in the population.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that the survey was conducted May 23-June 8, 2022, not June 28.

Study: What Americans really think

The best predictor of private behavior is private opinion.

Polls

&quot;Self-silencing&quot; — people saying what they think others want to hear rather than what they truly feel — is skewing our understanding of how Americans really feel about abortion, COVID-19 precautions, what children are taught in school and other hot-button issues, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a new study" data-vars-click-url="http://populace.org/research" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://populace.org/research" target="_blank">a new study</a> finds.Why it matters: The best predictor of private behavior is private opinion. People&#x27;s actual views are far more likely than their stated views to drive consumer and social behavior — and voting.

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Margaret Talev

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Two Americas Index: Democracy deniers

Study: What Americans really think

Afghanistan withdrawal began Biden's political slide

Mar-a-Lago search warrant's clues

Biden's BFD

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Axios AM Thought Bubble: Trump's gift to Biden

Axios Sneak Peek: Trump eyes New Mexico — Lewandowski's Senate tryout — Israel election preview