1 big thing: Why Trump is rallying in New Mexico tomorrow

Illustration of President Trump hugging a cactus

2. Corey Lewandowski's Senate tryout

Illustration of Corey Lewandowski with a spotlight on hm and number pinned to his chest in the shape of the Capitol building

3. Israel's elections: Netanyahu closing in on victory

Netanyahu announces Sept. 10 that he'll annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank if he's re-elected.

4. Beijing is the new Davos?

5. Democratic presidential rivals go after NRA in gun video

6. Sneak Peek diary

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops.

Please encourage your friends and colleagues to sign up.

I'm Margaret Talev, Axios' politics and White House editor, guest hosting for newlywed Jonathan Swan. We welcome your feedback: margaret@axios.com.

Smart Brevity count: 1,470 words (5.5 minutes).

President Trump tweeted that he has authorized release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "if needed" following the attack on major oil processing and production sites in Saudi Arabia.

On Sept. 22, Trump will travel to Houston to participate in an event with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At the event, "Howdy, Modi! Shared Dreams, Bright Futures,” Modi will address the Indian-American community and reaffirm the strategic partnership between the two countries.

National

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Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: Trump's gift to Biden 

Illustration of President Elect Biden walking down a red carpet made out of ribbon towards a White House shaped box

🇺🇸 On this reset day for America, here's the latest from Margaret Talev, Axios managing editor for politics, and her team. 

I'd love to hear what you think: mike@axios.com.

 Smart Brevity™ count: 349 words ... 1½ minutes.

🎧  Listen to Jonathan Swan on Axios' new investigative podcast series, "How it happened: Trump's last stand."

And catch up with his fly-on-the-wall "Off the rails" series here.

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The news, in your inbox, as soon as it happens.

Axios AM Thought Bubble

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios 

Less than one in 10 Americans now describe COVID-19 as a crisis — with about three in four calling it a manageable problem and one in six saying it's no problem at all — according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

Why it matters: These sentiments — and the public's growing desire to be done with mask mandates and other restrictions — raise significant challenges for public health officials in managing new surges, and could create real political headwinds ahead of the midterms.

Between the lines: Democrats were five times as likely as Republicans to say COVID-19 is a crisis (16% to 3%). Meanwhile, Republicans were 10 times as likely as Democrats to say COVID-19 is not a problem (31% to 3%).

Here's another way to look at the overall numbers: About twice as large a share of Americans said COVID-19 is "not a problem at all" (17%) than said it is "a serious crisis" (9%). 

The big picture: The latest wave of our national survey actually found a slight uptick in people's perceptions of the risks of certain activities, including flying, attending sports events and returning to work. Yet it shows the highest share of Americans visiting friends and family members outside the home — and the lowest rate of social distancing — since the early part of last summer. 

Just half of respondents now support schools requiring students, teachers and administrators to wear masks, down from seven in 10 at the start of the school year.

The number of respondents who said their employers are requiring them to wear masks dropped by nearly half over the past month, from 39% to 22%.

37% of respondents said they've already returned to their normal, pre-COVID lives, a new survey high.

But, but, but: Americans take a much rosier view of the trajectory of infections and illness than federal data shows.

Clear majorities said that based on what they know or feel about the data "at this moment," they believe their states are experiencing decreasing rates of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

CDC data shows a different picture, with cases rising, and hospitalizations and deaths holding steady at low levels.

What they're saying: "People aren't following the COVID case numbers on a daily basis," said Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson. "People see coverage and ... assume the trend line is continuing even if it doesn't."

The intrigue: The survey asked people who haven't yet or don't believe they've yet had COVID why they'd been able to avoid it.

About two-thirds said it was because they'd been careful and taken precautions, while one in four said they'd simply been "lucky." Another 4% said COVID isn't really present where they live. 

Democrats were the most likely to credit safety precautions (85%) while Republicans were the least likely (68%). Republicans were about twice as likely as Democrats to attribute it to luck (25% vs. 13%).

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted April 8-11 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,043 general population adults age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

Axios-Ipsos poll: Most Americans say COVID is no longer a crisis

People hold a rosier view of the trajectory of infections and illness than the CDC data shows.

Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index

Health

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

No matter what happens with Elon Musk's hostile bid for Twitter, the political megaphone is up for grabs in a way we've never seen before.

Why it matters: No single company does more to drive moment-to-moment political conversation. For all its toxicity and biases, Twitter is politicians' first stop for breaking news and shaping views.

Musk's surprise move sent shockwaves through Washington, even with Congress in recess — and through state and global capitals.

Several Republicans hailed Musk as a hero and Twitter as the problem. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) tweeted (!): "Twitter's censors are freaking out about Elon Musk because they can't buy his silence."

Democratic analyst Mary Anne Marsh tweeted: "@elonmusk offer to buy @Twitter heading into the #2022Elections and #2024Elections isn’t a coincidence. It is a threat to our #democracy."

"The cheers and jeers for this tweet is all the proof needed," she wrote afterward.

Between the lines: The debate over whether Musk would be good or bad for Twitter isn't just about power or money. It's about the most American of ideas — free speech — and private companies' rights and obligations to sort the boundaries between disinformation and censorship.

It's also about where to draw the line on concentrating power in one person's hands. And the anti-big tech antitrust fervor right now means there may be less chance of a rival bid.

The backstory: Musk's move shows just how vital Twitter has become over its 16 years to the instant dissemination and analysis of political information.

Since Russia's invasion, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky has used it to message to the world and press President Biden and other leaders for help.

It's also a signpost for how deeply partisanship divides every facet of Americans' engagement with one another.

Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chair of the Republican Study Committee, told Axios in a statement that “Republicans haven’t been able to communicate on equal ground online since 2016, and it’s become worse since Biden took office."

"Big Tech has censored posts of mine about biological sex, COVID, Hunter Biden and even about kitchen table issues like energy prices," Banks said. "Democrats’ electoral strategy now relies on censorship."

Former President Trump's permanent suspension from Twitter is still a driver of the conservative backlash. And just before Musk's move, the former president's rival platform, Truth Social, had to retract a verified account for Fox News after a spokesperson said the network had nothing to do with it.

Arguably, Musk appears to be contemplating what Trump wants to do — but with the money to do it.

What they're saying: "I think the reason Twitter matters is, it's the place where a very self-selected slice of extremely politically active, politically motivated people go," said Aaron Smith, director of Data Labs at Pew Research Center.

10% of U.S. adults on Twitter produce 90% of the tweets, he said. Twitter users skew to college-educated vs. non-college users. They also skew Democratic.

Of 30 members in Congress with more than 1 million followers, Smith said that of his last count, 20 were Democrats and 10 Republicans.

And the 10% of U.S. lawmakers with the largest number of followers were getting 84% of the favorites and 81% of retweets that go to Congress collectively.

Smith's team reports that from the 114th Congress to the 116th Congress, lawmakers' collective posts jumped from just over 1 million to 1.6 million. During the same period, Democratic lawmakers' use of Twitter grew faster than Republican lawmakers'.

"This is the terrain where stuff is being fought over now," Smith said. "There's a real-time feedback loop with journalists, lawmakers. What does that do to our discourse?"

"Twitter is a place where members of Congress are going to get their message out — everything from, 'Hey, I'm going to be on this show at 5pm, check me out'; or, 'Come support our local heroes,' to memes and partisan attacks and everything in between," Smith said.

What we're hearing: Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), ranking member of the House subcommittee that deals with antitrust concerns, told Axios in a phone interview that when it comes to Musk, “I think if they turn him down … he may very well start his own."

Musk’s saga reveals how core Twitter is to U.S. politics

Musk's Twitter takeover bid sent shockwaves through Washington, around the country, and the world.

Illustration of the twitter logo modified to look like a a U.S. eagle with an olive branch and arrows

Elon Musk

No matter what happens with Elon Musk&#x27;s hostile bid for Twitter, the political megaphone is up for grabs in a way we&#x27;ve never seen before.Why it matters: No single company does more to drive moment-to-moment political conversation. For all its toxicity and biases, Twitter is politicians&#x27; first stop for breaking news and shaping views.

"I remember his eyes. I wish I didn’t," Valerie Biden Owens writes in a new memoir, "Growing Up Biden," describing the moment when her brother —  Joe Biden, barely 30 and just elected to the U.S. Senate — understood that his wife and baby daughter had been killed in a car accident.

Why it matters: No one knows President Biden better than his sister, his closest lifelong confidant, supporter and adviser. Her book, out Tuesday, is her story —   but it's chockablock with new insights about her big brother.

Details: An excerpt provided to Axios details the night Biden's first wife, Neilia, and daughter, Naomi, died.

"Memories of that night are buried deep within each of us like pieces of shrapnel that stopped just shy of killing us but are impossible to extract," Owens writes.

She describes Biden being sworn in as a senator at a hospital in Wilmington, as his sons Hunter and Beau were still recovering.

"Watching him, I struggled with a confused, displaced sense of pride: my brother, the Senator, assuming his role amid ruins. The whole scene felt like a ghoulish parody of our dreams and ambitions."

Valerie and her brother Jimmy — with help from a few senators — intervened so that Joe Biden wouldn't quit. She decided to move in to care for the boys as long as needed.

In one colorful scene two days before Christmas, a department store clerk resists selling Jimmy a decorated artificial tree out of the store's display window. "I want that tree. And I’m buying the f**king tree," Jimmy insisted. 

He prevailed, and hauled the tree to the boys' hospital room. 

It was "the only source of light at that time," the book says.

Owens describes driving toddler Hunter home from the hospital, unable to find words to make him secure. "He slept with me in the bed, the two of us curled around each other like little animals," she writes. "Shattered into many pieces, the Bidens began to pull together and assemble into a new shape."

Valerie Biden Owens is represented by Keith Urbahn and Matt Latimer of Javelin. 

First look: Valerie Biden Owens' memoir

President Biden's sister is one of his closest confidants.

Joe Biden

&quot;I remember his eyes. I wish I didn’t,&quot; Valerie Biden Owens writes in a new memoir, &quot;<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Growing Up Biden" data-vars-click-url="https://www.amazon.com/Growing-Up-Biden-Valerie-Owens/dp/1250821762" data-vars-content-id="85246598-cd2f-47b8-b754-63a939232fd8" data-vars-headline="First look: Valerie Biden Owens&#x27; memoir" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.amazon.com/Growing-Up-Biden-Valerie-Owens/dp/1250821762" target="_blank">Growing Up Biden</a>,&quot; describing the moment when her brother — Joe Biden, barely 30 and just elected to the U.S. Senate — understood that his wife and baby daughter had been killed in a car accident.Why it matters: No one knows President Biden better than his sister, his closest lifelong confidant, supporter and adviser. Her book, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="out Tuesday" data-vars-click-url="https://celadonbooks.com/book/growing-up-biden-valerie-biden-owens/" data-vars-content-id="85246598-cd2f-47b8-b754-63a939232fd8" data-vars-headline="First look: Valerie Biden Owens&#x27; memoir" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://celadonbooks.com/book/growing-up-biden-valerie-biden-owens/" target="_blank">out Tuesday</a>, is her story — but it&#x27;s chockablock with new insights about her big brother.

Democratic lawmakers are openly pressuring Attorney General Merrick Garland to bring the weight of U.S. law enforcement against members of former President Trump's inner circle they've deemed uncooperative with the House's investigation of the Jan. 6 attack.

Why it matters: The House select committee is seeking to compel or punish Trump loyalists who don't comply with the investigation, while Republicans are preparing to win back control of Congress in November — and end the probe.

The big picture: The pressure campaign is putting President Biden on a collision course with his own party.

Distinguishing himself from Trump, who Democrats lambasted for pressuring Justice Department officials during his White House years, Biden has pledged to ensure Garland operates independently of politics.

"I told you I would not tell the Justice Department what position to take or not take, and I’m not going to instruct the Congress, either," he told reporters on Monday.

What we're watching: During a meeting Monday night at which the select committee recommended House contempt votes against former Trump aides Dan Scavino and Peter Navarro, Reps. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) all called on Garland to act.

Luria said the Justice Department "must act swiftly," adding: "Attorney General Garland, do your job so that we can do ours."

On Tuesday Schiff told reporters it's important for the Justice Department to act quickly and decisively to enforce the committee's prerogatives because "we're trying to prevent another Jan. 6. ... We feel a sense of urgency and we hope the department does also."

Schiff said the cases against Navarro and Scavino are "pretty clear cut," so "it shouldn't be that difficult for the department to act."

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who chairs the select committee, was asked Tuesday about committee members' frustrations with the Justice Department's pace. He replied: "I'm in agreement with my members."

How we got here: The ramped-up calls come three months after the House voted to hold former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows in contempt for ending cooperation with the investigation.

Federal prosecutors — so far — have not brought charges.

They also follow revelations about more than two dozen texts in which Virginia "Ginni" Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, urged Meadows to keep pushing to overturn the 2020 election results.

Meanwhile, a federal judge — who this week ordered a Trump attorney and staunch ally to turn over a cache of documents to the select committee — wrote that the lawyer and Trump had "launched a campaign to overturn a democratic election, an action unprecedented in American history."

In addition, the White House will not assert executive privilege over testimony by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, or Trump's daughter Ivanka to the committee, it was announced on Tuesday.

But, but, but: Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), chair of the House Democratic Caucus, said neither the committee nor the Justice Department should "operate under false deadlines and timeframes that would render their work incomplete."

Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), vice chair of the Democratic caucus and a member of the Jan. 6 committee, said it's clear the Justice Department is "committed to democracy."

He also credited the DOJ for prosecuting former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, indicted in November by a federal grand jury for refusing to comply with committee subpoenas.

"We hope that they act on it with the Meadows citation," Aguilar said, "and with others that could follow."

Democrats push Garland to come down on uncooperative Trump allies

The pressure campaign is putting President Biden on a collision course with his own party.

Rep. Elaine Luria is seen speaking during Monday night's meeting of the Jan. 6 committee.

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) speaks Monday during the Jan. 6 committee meeting. Photo: Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Capitol riot

Democratic lawmakers are openly pressuring Attorney General Merrick Garland to bring the weight of U.S. law enforcement against members of former President Trump&#x27;s inner circle they&#x27;ve deemed uncooperative with the House&#x27;s investigation of the Jan. 6 attack.Why it matters: The House select committee is seeking to compel or punish Trump loyalists who don&#x27;t comply with the investigation, while Republicans are preparing to win back control of Congress in November — and end the probe.

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

One in three Americans now says the pandemic is over — despite rising cases and hospitalizations — according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

The big picture: Respondents are more concerned about spreading COVID-19 to others or being inconvenienced by restrictions than getting sick or dying. 

And political affiliation is driving the thinking about how much the federal government should keep spending on the virus.

40% of those surveyed said they're already had COVID.

What they're saying: "There appears to be a relatively small amount of Americans who are feeling any personal sense of risk," said Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson.

"Politically, it really demonstrates the ongoing divisions in society about the pandemic and its aftermath." 

By the numbers: Overall, 31% of respondents said they believe the pandemic is over, while 69% disagree.

59% of Republicans say it's over, compared to just 27% of independents and 10% of Democrats.

55% of unvaccinated Americans said it's over, compared to just 22% of vaccinated people.

38% of white respondents, 27% of Hispanic respondents and 10% of Black respondents said it's over.

The intrigue: Americans' top COVID concern at the moment is inadvertently spreading it to others at higher risk of serious illness. That's true for 32% of respondents overall — with little difference by political affiliation.

It's also true for 38% of Americans under 30 and ages 50-64.

The concern is shared by 35% of vaccinated people, but only 22% of unvaccinated people. The top concern among the unvaccinated is dealing with restrictions such as vaccines or mask requirements.

Hospitalization remains the top concern for Americans 65 and older.

When it comes to federal spending on COVID, 33% say it's too much, 31% say it's not enough and 35% say it's the right amount.

63% of Republicans say it's too much, compared with 28% of independents and 14% of Democrats.

42% of Democrats, 33% of independents and 15% of Republicans say it's not enough.

Between the lines: Since last month, as cases have been rising, the survey found a slight softening in support for federal, state and local governments lifting all restrictions — now 51%, down from 59%.

What we're watching: In two new questions to the survey, 62% of respondents say they support the idea of local news broadcasts reporting daily on COVID rates in their area — and 57% support the idea of a the federal government funding a single national COVID monitoring system.

These numbers suggest majorities of Americans want to stay informed about the data around the virus, even if they aren't inclined to modify their behaviors any longer.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted May 13-16 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 982 general population adults age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

Axios-Ipsos poll: 1 in 3 say the pandemic's over

Respondents are more concerned about spreading COVID-19 to others or being inconvenienced by restrictions than getting sick or dying.

Coronavirus

One in three Americans now says the pandemic is over — despite rising cases and hospitalizations — according to the latest installment of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-index" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-index" target="_blank">Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index</a>.The big picture: Respondents are more concerned about spreading COVID-19 to others or being inconvenienced by restrictions than getting sick or dying.

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Axios-Ipsos poll: 1 in 3 say the pandemic's over

Musk’s saga reveals how core Twitter is to U.S. politics

Axios-Ipsos poll: Most Americans say COVID is no longer a crisis

First look: Valerie Biden Owens' memoir

Democrats push Garland to come down on uncooperative Trump allies

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Axios AM Thought Bubble: Trump's gift to Biden

Axios Sneak Peek: Trump eyes New Mexico — Lewandowski's Senate tryout — Israel election preview