1 big thing: Why Trump is rallying in New Mexico tomorrow

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2. Corey Lewandowski's Senate tryout

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3. Israel's elections: Netanyahu closing in on victory

Netanyahu announces Sept. 10 that he'll annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank if he's re-elected.

4. Beijing is the new Davos?

5. Democratic presidential rivals go after NRA in gun video

6. Sneak Peek diary

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops.

Please encourage your friends and colleagues to sign up.

I'm Margaret Talev, Axios' politics and White House editor, guest hosting for newlywed Jonathan Swan. We welcome your feedback: margaret@axios.com.

Smart Brevity count: 1,470 words (5.5 minutes).

President Trump tweeted that he has authorized release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "if needed" following the attack on major oil processing and production sites in Saudi Arabia.

On Sept. 22, Trump will travel to Houston to participate in an event with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At the event, "Howdy, Modi! Shared Dreams, Bright Futures,” Modi will address the Indian-American community and reaffirm the strategic partnership between the two countries.

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1 big thing: Trump's gift to Biden 

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🇺🇸 On this reset day for America, here's the latest from Margaret Talev, Axios managing editor for politics, and her team. 

I'd love to hear what you think: mike@axios.com.

 Smart Brevity™ count: 349 words ... 1½ minutes.

🎧  Listen to Jonathan Swan on Axios' new investigative podcast series, "How it happened: Trump's last stand."

And catch up with his fly-on-the-wall "Off the rails" series here.

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Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Data: Axios Harris Poll 100; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Walt Disney Company took a big hit in this year's Axios Harris Poll 100, dropping a dozen spots, to 77th, after tangling with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over students' LGBTQ+ rights.

Why it matters: In voicing opposition to DeSantis' so-called "Don't Say Gay" bill last year, Disney gained favor with Democrats but took such a large reputation hit with Republicans that its overall reputation score was severely impacted. 

By the numbers: The company was ranked the fifth most polarizing brand of 100 in this year's survey — measured by the gap between the assessments of Republican and Democratic respondents.

Overall, Disney's Reputational Quotient, or RQ®, score was 70.9 out of a possible 100. That's down from 73.4 in 2022. The score represents measurements across multiple dimensions that touch on character, trust and trajectory. 

Among Democrats, it jumped to 80.3 from 72.5. But it plunged 14 points with Republicans, to 61 from 75.

The average RQ gap between Republicans and Democrats in this year's survey was 4.4. In Disney's case, it was 19.3. While Disney's reputation score has been declining since the 2017 survey, that trend had been bipartisan — until this year.

Zoom in: Respondents were asked how they felt about Disney now compared with a year ago.

44% of Democrats but only 21% of Republicans said they were feeling more positive about the company.

Meanwhile, 42% of Republicans said their feelings about Disney grew more negative over the past year, compared with 12% of Democrats.

35% of Republicans but just 19% of Democrats said Disney has become less authentic and more divisive.

63% of Democrats but 46% of Republicans describe the company as family-oriented.

Catch up quick: Under its former leadership, Disney initially declined to comment on the bill, which has since become law, but then reversed course following an outcry from its employees. 

DeSantis has since gone to war with Disney, pushing the state to take control over Disney's self-governing district and threatening to build a prison or a competing theme park near Disney's Florida park. 

The fight has forced Disney to reevaluate its political relationship with Florida, where it has more than 80,000 employees. Last week, the company canceled plans for a new, nearly $1 billion employee campus in Orlando. 

Between the lines: Disney lost momentum across each of nine attributes measured in the Axios Harris 100 poll — with the biggest declines among citizenship and growth.

Disney lost 6.2 points in perceptions of future growth, 4.3 points on citizenship ("shares my values" and "supports good causes") and 2.9 points on ethics. 

What they're saying: "The lesson here is that when you divide you subtract," said Harris Poll CEO John Gerzema. "When you divide audiences, you're ultimately going to be subtracting customers for your business."

Unlike brands like Patagonia or Chick-fil-A that already are identified with ideological or policy views, Disney "didn't have a track record for speaking out on this issue," came to the issue late and flip-flopped, Gerzema said.

Wide majorities of survey respondents see companies trying to appease the left and right at once, and they respond negatively to that perception, or feel the positioning is a marketing ploy, Gerzema said.

Disney, through a spokesperson, declined to comment.

The big picture: Party identification plays an undeniable role in how Americans view major brands. The top 10 most politically polarized companies in the survey were:

Details: John Deere, Hobby Lobby and Chick-fil-A were among Republicans' top five list. Trader Joe's, USAA, Honda Motor Co. and Apple were among Democrats' top five performing brands. Notably, Pfizer — which developed a COVID-19 vaccine — appeared on Democrats' top 10 list. 

Outdoor retailer Patagonia made both lists at No. 3, though its ideological alignment is left of center. That's because Patagonia ranks high in terms of quality of products and services, which often helps brands transcend any political perceptions. 

Yes, but: Politics isn't the only determinant of brand reputation.

Gen Z and millennials put Patagonia at the top of their list, while Gen X and boomers combined put John Deere at the top. Rural consumers put 3M on top, while city dwellers cited Patagonia and suburban shoppers stocked up at Costco.

Go deeper: Full results and poll methodology

Disney's reputation hit by polarizing political drama

The company's conflict with DeSantis  over LGBTQ rights shows the business cost of political controversy.

Axios-Harris Poll 100

Disney's Axios Harris Poll 100 Reputation Score

The Walt Disney Company took a big hit in this year&#x27;s Axios Harris Poll 100, dropping a dozen spots, to 77th, after tangling with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over students&#x27; LGBTQ+ rights.Why it matters: In <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="voicing opposition" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/03/09/disney-ceo-oppose-dont-say-gay" data-vars-content-id="194cb699-de84-4bfc-856e-4ccbbf0cab82" data-vars-headline="Disney&#x27;s reputation hit by polarizing political drama" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/03/09/disney-ceo-oppose-dont-say-gay" target="_self">voicing opposition</a> to DeSantis&#x27; so-called &quot;Don&#x27;t Say Gay&quot; bill last year, Disney gained favor with Democrats but took such a large reputation hit with Republicans that its overall reputation score was severely impacted.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Latino

Axios Latino

Data: Axios/Ipsos in partnership with Noticias Telemundo; Chart: Axios Visuals

A plurality of Latinos now says "neither" when asked which major political party cares more about them, according to the latest Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.

Why it matters: More Latinos continue to favor the Democratic Party, but their allegiance is drifting. Some Latinos signal growing differences on cultural issues and crime — and give Republicans an edge in handling the economy.

The big picture: That hasn't translated to a major realignment among Latinos to the GOP, Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson tells Axios.

47% overall (44% of the registered voters in the survey) said they had a favorable opinion of President Biden, about the same as last October.

29% of respondents (32% of the registered voters) had a favorable opinion of former President Trump.

Just 20% (24% of the registered voters) nationally gave favorable reviews to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), despite his popularity in his home state with the heavily Cuban-American Hispanic population.

Zoom in: Latinos are an increasingly important voting bloc, representing 18.7% of the U.S. population and growing. The poll found that by nearly 3 to 1, Latinos say Democrats care more about them than Republicans, a declining but still dominant share. 

But 32% of all respondents said neither Democrats nor Republicans care about Latinos. That's up from 28% last October and 25% a year ago.

40% of respondents said it's a bad time to be a Latino or Hispanic person in America, up from 31% last October and 29% a year ago.

State of play: "Latinos are still more Democratic than Republican by significant margins," Jackson said. "But when you're talking about elections that are won by a percentage point, small losses can make a difference.

"The Democratic coalition is complicated in the best of times. The more pieces are in play, the harder it's going to be for any Democratic candidate to thread the needle."

About half the respondents in the survey said they're registered voters. The registered voters skewed slightly more conservative than the survey's overall sample.

By the numbers: 50% of respondents now say parents should have the ability to stop schools from teaching subjects they do not like, up from 44% in March 2022, the last time the question was asked.

Support also has declined since last year for people being able to choose their own gender identity (from 54% to 47%), with an even bigger decline when it comes to teenagers' choices (from 48% to 35%).

14% now say Democrats do a better job on crime and public safety than Republicans, down from 20% last October; 22% of respondents were more likely to say Republicans do a good job, the same as in the prior survey.

The intrigue: A plurality said neither party is good on immigration (34%), crime (30%) or managing the federal budget (38%).

One in three said Democrats are better on abortion issues, compared with 17% for Republicans.

Democrats were seen as better on climate and energy, while Republicans had an edge on the economy. 

What they're saying: "Both parties are really struggling to understand the fastest-growing segment of the electorate," Republican consultant Mike Madrid, based in Sacramento, Calif., tells Axios.

Methodology: This Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll, in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, was conducted June 2-9 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,116 Hispanic/Latino adults age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample.

Subscribe to Axios Latino to get vital news about Latinos and Latin America, delivered to your inbox on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

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Poll: Latinos' slow drift from Dems

Latinos still see Democrats as far more caring than GOP, but support is eroding.

Hispanic and Latino Americans

Two Americas Index: 20% favor a "national divorce"

Only 37% of Americans said they're optimistic about the state of our democracy.

Political polarization

One in five Americans say they&#x27;d support a &quot;national divorce&quot; in which Republican- and Democratic-leaning states split into separate countries, according to new findings from our <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" data-vars-content-id="469f8873-867c-4f18-9c80-1660fcb3851c" data-vars-headline="Two Americas Index: 20% favor a &quot;national divorce&quot;" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index</a>.Why it matters: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?<ul><li>One way to look at it is... 20% of the U.S. population is such a small share that it&#x27;s nowhere close to moving the needle.</li><li>Or... it represents 66 million people! That&#x27;s roughly equivalent to everyone in Texas, Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Idaho, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Dakota, Alabama, Georgia and Nebraska combined — and larger than the populations of most countries in the world.</li></ul>

Data: IPSOS and Axios Two Americas Poll; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

Nearly 9 in 10 Americans say they oppose reducing spending on Social Security or Medicare, according to new polling from our Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index.

Why it matters: The overwhelming consensus (96% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans) explains why any talk of cutting these programs has become a political lightning rod, even as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle recognize potential concerns regarding long-term solvency.

President Biden has used various Republican proposals to paint the entire GOP as a threat to Social Security and Medicare, even as party leadership insists the programs will be off the table in spending talks.

Three-fourths of Americans also oppose reducing spending on Medicaid or food assistance  — but there's a larger gap between opposition from Democrats (92%) and Republicans (61%).

The big picture: Americans see political extremism, immigration and climate change as the top issues facing the country — but they cite opioid addiction and education as bigger issues in their own communities. 

49% say inflation is the most important issue facing the country; 57% say it’s their top local issue.

Opioid addiction and education were cited at 11% and 8% as top national issues, respectively, but doubled to 21% and 18% in terms of top local concerns.

Between the lines: There's a perceived gap between what Congress, the White House and national media are focused on and Americans' own day-to-day experiences.

These can be sleeper issues that sway how people vote.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted March 10-13, 2023, by Ipsos on its online survey panels in English. This poll is based on a sample of 1,018 general-population residents age 18 or older, weighted on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education and location to be nationally representative.

Two Americas Index: Hands off Social Security and Medicare

Any talk of cutting these programs has become a political lightning rod.

Social security

Illustration of a shield surrounded by abstract ballot shapes. 

Nearly 9 in 10 Americans say they oppose reducing spending on Social Security or Medicare, according to new polling from our <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" data-vars-content-id="cd346fc9-a976-44f4-8fdc-c2cf0e3d8ca7" data-vars-headline="Two Americas Index: Hands off Social Security and Medicare" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index</a>.Why it matters: The overwhelming consensus (96% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans) explains why any talk of cutting these programs has become a political lightning rod, even as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle recognize potential concerns regarding long-term solvency.

Data: Axios Harris Poll; Chart: Axios Visuals

FTX and Tesla, once seen as shining examples of innovation and opportunity, took two of the biggest reputational hits in this year's Axios Harris Poll 100 brand reputation survey.

Why it matters: Amid a crypto collapse and Musk madness, Americans have grown wary and weary of big ideas and powerful moguls who they feel have overpromised and underdelivered.

What we're watching: Elon Musk’s chaotic takeover of Twitter not only pushed the social media company's own ranking down but shook investors' faith in Tesla by making the public more aware of Musk's manic leadership style.

Twitter ranked 97th among the 100 brands survey respondents identified as most visible in the country today. Its Reputational Quotient, or RQ®, score — a measure across seven dimensions touching on character, trust and trajectory — was 59.3 out of a possible 100.

Tesla saw one of the biggest reputation drops of the past year, from 11th in 2022 to 62nd place this year, with a 74.3 RQ (79.5 in 2022).

Crypto giant FTX made the list for the first time this year — ranking 99th of 100 for reputation, with an RQ of 58.6. The firm filed for bankruptcy last year following a liquidity crisis that was caused by what the government calls an illegal crypto-trading scheme. Its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was once considered one of the most successful young entrepreneurs in the world. Now he faces criminal charges.

FTX's fall took crypto with it. Bitcoin, though not a company, also joined the list for the first time this year as respondents named it as one of the most visible brands — and ranked it 93rd of 100 for reputation.

Social media companies overall have fallen from grace since 2018's Facebook/Cambridge Analytica scandal, according to the poll. TikTok and Facebook parent Meta saw reputational losses. They now rank 94th and 96th, respectively.

The big picture: Outdoor clothing retailer Patagonia took the No. 1 overall ranking across seven dimensions, earning an RQ of 83.5. Costco, Chick-fil-A and UPS were cited as the three most trusted names.

The Trump Organization finished in last place overall for the second year in a row, with an RQ of 52.9, even lower than the year before.

Vaccine makers and other brands associated with COVID faded in focus this year. More on Americans' minds: fast foods, carmakers, and brands addressing inflation, threats from China or Russia, and technology.

Between the lines: Some big companies that pulled back on commitments lost Americans' trust.

Axios Harris Poll 100: Year of the tarnished titans

Our annual survey of brand reputation shows just how far some of the mighty have fallen.

FTX and Tesla, once seen as shining examples of innovation and opportunity, took two of the biggest reputational hits in this year&#x27;s Axios Harris Poll 100 brand reputation survey.Why it matters: Amid a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="crypto" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/signup/cryptocurrency" data-vars-content-id="e1aa8ad9-9b8b-4b96-bc3c-bc3eed58ff4a" data-vars-headline="Axios Harris Poll 100: Year of the tarnished titans" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/signup/cryptocurrency" target="_self">crypto</a> collapse and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Musk madness" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/economy-business/elon-musk" data-vars-content-id="e1aa8ad9-9b8b-4b96-bc3c-bc3eed58ff4a" data-vars-headline="Axios Harris Poll 100: Year of the tarnished titans" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/economy-business/elon-musk" target="_self">Musk madness</a>, Americans have grown wary and weary of big ideas and powerful moguls who they feel have overpromised and underdelivered.

Margaret Talev

Stories

Poll: Latinos' slow drift from Dems

Disney's reputation hit by polarizing political drama

Axios Harris Poll 100: Year of the tarnished titans

Two Americas Index: Hands off Social Security and Medicare

Two Americas Index: 20% favor a "national divorce"

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Axios Sneak Peek: Trump eyes New Mexico — Lewandowski's Senate tryout — Israel election preview