1 big thing: Why Trump is rallying in New Mexico tomorrow

Illustration of President Trump hugging a cactus

2. Corey Lewandowski's Senate tryout

Illustration of Corey Lewandowski with a spotlight on hm and number pinned to his chest in the shape of the Capitol building

3. Israel's elections: Netanyahu closing in on victory

Netanyahu announces Sept. 10 that he'll annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank if he's re-elected.

4. Beijing is the new Davos?

5. Democratic presidential rivals go after NRA in gun video

6. Sneak Peek diary

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops.

Please encourage your friends and colleagues to sign up.

I'm Margaret Talev, Axios' politics and White House editor, guest hosting for newlywed Jonathan Swan. We welcome your feedback: margaret@axios.com.

Smart Brevity count: 1,470 words (5.5 minutes).

President Trump tweeted that he has authorized release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "if needed" following the attack on major oil processing and production sites in Saudi Arabia.

On Sept. 22, Trump will travel to Houston to participate in an event with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At the event, "Howdy, Modi! Shared Dreams, Bright Futures,” Modi will address the Indian-American community and reaffirm the strategic partnership between the two countries.

Sneak Peek

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

blue

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: Trump's gift to Biden 

Illustration of President Elect Biden walking down a red carpet made out of ribbon towards a White House shaped box

🇺🇸 On this reset day for America, here's the latest from Margaret Talev, Axios managing editor for politics, and her team. 

I'd love to hear what you think: mike@axios.com.

 Smart Brevity™ count: 349 words ... 1½ minutes.

🎧  Listen to Jonathan Swan on Axios' new investigative podcast series, "How it happened: Trump's last stand."

And catch up with his fly-on-the-wall "Off the rails" series here.

Thought Bubble

An analog clock with only two symbols instead of twelve: the symbols read 'AM' and 'PM'.

The news, in your inbox, as soon as it happens.

Axios AM Thought Bubble

National

Data: Gallup;  Note: Poll was taken twice in 2013 and 2015, in May and July of both years.  Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

Compared to the decades and decades it took to dismantle Jim Crow laws or secure women's right to vote, America's about-face on same-sex marriage happened in the blink of an eye.

The big picture: Just 27% of Americans supported same-sex marriage in 1996, the year President Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage Act, which denied federal recognition to same-sex marriages.

That's flipped on its head: 71% now tell Gallup that same-sex and opposite-sex marriages should have the same legal recognition.

Driving the news: The Senate voted 61-36 on Tuesday to codify the rights to same-sex marriage and interracial marriage into federal law. The House is expected to quickly follow.

Twelve Senate Republicans voted for the bill. All 36 no votes came from Republicans.

What they're saying: "This is a great example of politicians following public opinion rather than leading it," Sasha Issenberg, author of "The Engagement: America's Quarter-Century Struggle over Same-Sex Marriage," tells Axios.

"That has changed the partisan dynamics around the issue: in the 1990s and 2000s, Republicans liked pressing for votes on marriage-related questions — not just DOMA but state and federal constitutional bans — because they unified their own coalition and divided Democrats," he said.

"Now it’s Republicans who are torn between placating some of their loudest activists and taking a position that aligns with where general-election voters are."

Between the lines: Democrats decided to do this because there's a real concern that, as popular as same-sex marriage has become, it could be in jeopardy before the 6-3 Supreme Court.

The legal reasoning behind the court's decision to strike down the right to an abortion does seem to implicate other rights that the court has protected in the same way — including same-sex marriage.

The Supreme Court can overturn popular things, and it can strike down laws that passed with overwhelming bipartisan support. But this kind of overwhelming consensus still matters. 

The justices could only reconsider same-sex marriage if conservatives bring that fight to their doorstep.  The number of conservatives who want to pick that fight is not zero, but it is small — and at least among the rank and file, it seems to be shrinking. 

Even a majority of Republicans now say the law should recognize same-sex marriage, according to Gallup.

Yes, but: Many Republicans have targeted transgender people, especially youth, through a variety of restrictions, from preventing access to school sports to bans on gender-affirming care.

Issenberg said that's no coincidence. "Public opinion on trans questions is still broadly in conservatives’ favor, and state and federal laws largely unformed, allowing them to go on the offensive as protectors of the status quo," he said.

As more people know someone who is openly trans, opinion may shift again, just as it did with marriage, Issenberg said.

America's sudden change of heart on same-sex marriage

Same-sex marriage

Politics & Policy

Data: Ipsos; Note: Data rounded to nearest whole; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

Just weeks before the midterms, nearly one in four Latinos still didn't know how they'd vote, according to the latest Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.

Why it matters: The findings underscore Latinos' collective hold on the American swing vote — and Democrats' relatively modest advantage is an ominous sign for those who fear a further erosion of their party's support among this large, diverse ethnic group.

Inflation and crime remained by far the biggest worries for survey respondents. Abortion ranked significantly lower, and has not climbed since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.

But, but, but: Democrats have some targeted advantages. Respondents support President Biden's student loan forgiveness and the Inflation Reduction Act by about 2-to-1 margins. 

Four in five favor expanded background checks on 18-to-21-year-olds who want to buy a gun. Three in four favor extending restrictions on domestic abusers who can own guns to include dating partners as well as spouses or ex-spouses.

The intrigue: 57% opposed governors busing or flying migrants to other states, or to the nation's capital.

But respondents were all over the map when asked if states have an obligation to take in, house and educate migrants transported into their boundaries — 38% said yes, 27% said no, and 32% took neither position.

A majority (57%) said Biden should use executive authority to protect Dreamers, farmworkers and essential workers if Congress won't act. 

Zoom in: 37% of respondents cited inflation and 36% cited crime or gun violence when asked to identify up to three of their top worries.

Just 12% cited abortion or access to abortion as a top concern. That's a gain of  just 2 percentage points, less than the survey's margin of error,  since the Supreme Court's June ruling — even as Democrats have sought to use the issue to ramp up registration and turnout among women.

Several other concerns outpaced abortion, including immigration (26%), climate change (25%), health care (20%), political extremism or polarization (17%), taxes (14%) and racial injustice (13%).

Just one-fourth of respondents said they were certain or almost certain to vote; one fourth said they were not registered to vote.

Clear majorities said it's time for both major parties to change and that President Biden (69%) and former President Donald Trump (73%) should not run again in 2024.

What we're watching: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' favorability continues to rise among Hispanic respondents in his home state — 51% now, compared to 39% last December.

California's Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom had a 55% favorable rating with  Latino respondents in his home state, down slightly from 59% last December.

Nationally, President Biden was at 47%, Vice President Kamala Harris  at 42% and former President Donald Trump at 27%.

What they're saying: "Latino Americans feel relatively cool toward both political parties," said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs.

"While they give Republicans a slight advantage on being better on the economy, and Democrats on sharing their values, the fact is that roughly a quarter, or more, believe neither side is handling the issues they care about well. This makes them, in many ways, the swing voters of the 2022 election."

Read more in Thursday's edition of Axios Latino. 

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Latino Poll, in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, was conducted Sept. 30-Oct.8 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,005 Hispanic/Latino adults age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample.

Axios-Ipsos Latino poll: Warning signs for Dems

The findings underscore Latinos' collective hold on the American swing vote — and are ominous for Democrats.

Hispanic and Latino Americans

Just weeks before the midterms, nearly one in four Latinos still didn&#x27;t know how they&#x27;d vote, according to the latest <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/latinos-support-democratic-policies-axios-poll-102022" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/latinos-support-democratic-policies-axios-poll-102022" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll</a> in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.Why it matters: The findings underscore Latinos&#x27; collective hold on the American swing vote — and Democrats&#x27; relatively modest advantage is an ominous sign for those who fear a further erosion of their party&#x27;s support among this large, diverse ethnic group.

Data: Axios and Ipsos Research; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

The overwhelming majority of Americans say they don't want to talk politics at the Thanksgiving table, according to the Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index.

Yes, but: 41% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans said they'll probably do it anyway.

What they're saying: "Arguing about politics may be Americans' least favorite Thanksgiving activity, but it may actually serve an important function in our body politic," said Cliff Young, Ipsos' president of U.S. Public Affairs. 

"People who engage in these kinds of discussions across the aisle are more likely to accept the legitimacy of elections."

Details: Our first post-midterms survey on American polarity found mixed feelings about the midterm elections. But the survey found broad consensus that losing candidates must concede; seven in 10 respondents said that's the only way the country can move forward.

61% overall — and 53% of those who identified as Republicans — say the GOP must move on from Donald Trump.

But only 55% say Americans must reject claims that the 2020 presidential election results weren't valid.

The intrigue: Respondents who said they have shared meals in the past year with people of different partisanship, race or ethnicity were more likely to say that Americans must reject election deniers' claims and move beyond Trump; that losers must formally concede — and that they'll probably discuss politics at Thanksgiving.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted Nov. 18-21 by Ipsos on their online survey panels in English. This poll is based on a sample of 1,005 general population adults age 18 or older, weighted on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and location to be nationally representative.

The credibility interval is ±3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

Two Americas Index: No politics at Thanksgiving, please

2022 elections

The overwhelming majority of Americans say they don&#x27;t want to talk politics at the Thanksgiving table, according to the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index</a>.Yes, but: 41% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans said they&#x27;ll probably do it anyway.

The in-home attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband by a hammer-wielding man shouting, "Where's Nancy?" thrusts post-Jan. 6 fears about political violence and American democracy back into the light days before the midterm elections.

Why it matters: Violence and threats of violence are affecting political figures in both parties. See: Lee Zeldin (R), Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). But all of the polling offers this year's candidates a different imperative: Focus on the economy if you want to win elections.

President Biden and Democrats, watching a red wave encroach, shifted their closing message to emphasize their efforts to create manufacturing jobs, reduce prescription drug costs and prevent Republicans from cutting Social Security or Medicare. That's left former President Obama to carry much of the party's democracy-is-on-the-ballot message.

Details: There's a lot we still don't know about the attack. The Associated Press reported that the suspect, David DePape, appeared to have echoed QAnon conspiracies, made racist online posts, questioned the 2020 election outcome and defended former President Trump.

What we're watching: President Biden, speaking Friday night in Philadelphia, called the attack "despicable" and said there's too much political violence and hate. "Enough is enough is enough," Biden said. "Every person of good conscience needs to clarify and unambiguously stand up against the violence in our politics, regardless of what your politics are."

Vice President Kamala Harris said that "anyone who professes to be a leader, I think, has to really understand the meaning and the impact of their words and their posture on these things."

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy did not issue a direct statement but said through a spokesperson that he had called Speaker Pelosi, was praying for Paul Pelosi's recovery and was "thankful they caught the assailant."

Trump had not issued a statement about the attack.

Axios' Andrew Solender noted two other leading Republicans' conflicted approaches on Friday to how to message around the attack.

By the numbers: Polls show voters are most worried about inflation, gas prices, recession, jobs — and crime, but the kind tied to economic hardship not political targets.

71% of voters in a New York Times/Siena College poll this month agreed democracy is at risk. But only 7% said that was the country's top problem.

Nearly four in 10 Republicans and one in four Democrats in last month's Axios-Ipsos Two Americas poll said they'd blame election fraud if their party doesn't win control of Congress in the midterms.

What we're watching: Whether the attack on Paul Pelosi has any impact on the midterm elections will become clear in about a week and a half.

The bigger governance question: Does the U.S. system have the will — or the ability — to contain rising political violence?

A heightened threat

Political figures are alarmed about a climate of violence. The polls tells them to keep their message focused on the economy.

Image of Speaker Pelosi's husband, Paul Pelosi

Nancy Pelosi

Midterm Elections 2022

The in-home attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi&#x27;s husband by a hammer-wielding man shouting, &quot;Where&#x27;s Nancy?&quot; thrusts post-Jan. 6 fears about political violence and American democracy back into the light days before the midterm elections.Why it matters: Violence and threats of violence are affecting political figures in both parties. See: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Lee Zeldin" data-vars-click-url="https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2022/10/20/veteran-who-attacked-zeldin-to-be-released-to-rehab-facility" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2022/10/20/veteran-who-attacked-zeldin-to-be-released-to-rehab-facility" target="_blank">Lee Zeldin</a> (R), Justice <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Brett Kavanaugh" data-vars-click-url="https://apnews.com/article/us-supreme-court-maryland-brett-kavanaugh-government-and-politics-c84e8331bc540b73e6ef18dc47500307" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://apnews.com/article/us-supreme-court-maryland-brett-kavanaugh-government-and-politics-c84e8331bc540b73e6ef18dc47500307" target="_blank">Brett Kavanaugh</a>, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D)" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/legal/michigan-jury-finds-three-men-guilty-plot-kidnap-governor-2022-10-26/" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/michigan-jury-finds-three-men-guilty-plot-kidnap-governor-2022-10-26/" target="_blank">Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D)</a>. But all of the polling offers this year&#x27;s candidates a different imperative: Focus on the economy if you want to win elections.<ul><li>President Biden and Democrats, watching a red wave encroach, shifted their closing message to emphasize their efforts to create manufacturing jobs, reduce prescription drug costs and prevent Republicans from cutting Social Security or Medicare. That&#x27;s left former President Obama to carry much of the party&#x27;s democracy-is-on-the-ballot message.</li></ul>Details: There&#x27;s a lot we still don&#x27;t know about the attack. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="The Associated Press reported" data-vars-click-url="https://apnews.com/article/california-donald-trump-san-francisco-47c103cfe696df9faf0e57e1c7dd4f10" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://apnews.com/article/california-donald-trump-san-francisco-47c103cfe696df9faf0e57e1c7dd4f10" target="_blank">The Associated Press reported</a> that the suspect, David DePape, appeared to have echoed QAnon conspiracies, made racist online posts, questioned the 2020 election outcome and defended former President Trump.What we&#x27;re watching: President Biden, speaking Friday night in Philadelphia, called the attack &quot;despicable&quot; and said there&#x27;s too much political violence and hate. &quot;Enough is enough is enough,&quot; Biden said. &quot;Every person of good conscience needs to clarify and unambiguously stand up against the violence in our politics, regardless of what your politics are.&quot;<ul><li>Vice President Kamala Harris said that &quot;anyone who professes to be a leader, I think, has to really understand the meaning and the impact of their words and their posture on these things.&quot;</li><li>House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy did not issue a direct statement but said through a spokesperson that he had called Speaker Pelosi, was praying for Paul Pelosi&#x27;s recovery and was &quot;thankful they caught the assailant.&quot;</li><li>Trump had not issued a statement about the attack.</li></ul><ul><li>Axios&#x27; Andrew Solender noted two other <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="leading Republicans&#x27;" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/tomemmer/status/1586066276727738370?s=46&amp;t=B5pEvBMF1eNEzZIy0UNb_Q" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/tomemmer/status/1586066276727738370?s=46&amp;t=B5pEvBMF1eNEzZIy0UNb_Q" target="_blank">leading Republicans&#x27;</a> <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="conflicted approaches" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/sarah_rankin/status/1586053540673617920?s=46&amp;t=WS-jH73Z3HLWCGfb4AdcjQ" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/sarah_rankin/status/1586053540673617920?s=46&amp;t=WS-jH73Z3HLWCGfb4AdcjQ" target="_blank">conflicted approaches</a> on Friday to how to message around the attack.</li></ul>By the numbers: Polls show voters are most worried about inflation, gas prices, recession, jobs — and crime, but the kind tied to economic hardship not political targets.<ul><li>71% of voters in a New York Times/Siena College <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="poll this month" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/midterm-election-voters-democracy-poll.html" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/midterm-election-voters-democracy-poll.html" target="_blank">poll this month</a> agreed democracy is at risk. But only 7% said that was the country&#x27;s top problem.</li><li>Nearly four in 10 Republicans and one in four Democrats in last month&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos Two Americas" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" data-vars-content-id="ed2b084f-a6b9-492e-beb7-4c82417c755a" data-vars-headline="A heightened threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-two-americas-index" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos Two Americas</a> poll said they&#x27;d blame election fraud if their party doesn&#x27;t win control of Congress in the midterms.</li></ul>What we&#x27;re watching: Whether the attack on Paul Pelosi has any impact on the midterm elections will become clear in about a week and a half.<ul><li>The bigger governance question: Does the U.S. system have the will — or the ability — to contain rising political violence?</li></ul>

Former U.S. Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama are headlining back-to-back democracy conferences next week, highlighting rising threats from authoritarianism and disinformation — and how to combat them globally and at home.

Why it matters: Bush and Obama — a Republican and a Democrat respectively — didn't coordinate their timing, organizers say. But their events — Bush's is Nov. 16 in Dallas and Obama's is Nov. 17 in New York — are happening the week after the U.S. midterm elections.

They follow a Nov. 14 meeting set for President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping — and what former President Trump is hyping as a "very big announcement" on Nov. 15, which may address his 2024 plans.

That's four days of messaging from four U.S. presidents (Day Two may stand out from the others).

The conferences also precede a coming fight on Capitol Hill over how much support to continue to provide to Ukraine in its defense against Russia's attack.

Details: Former President Bush, from Texas, will interview President Volodymyr Zelensky live via feed from Ukraine. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen will address the conference in taped remarks.

"The Struggle for Freedom" conference is hosted by the George W. Bush Institute, partnering with Freedom House and the National Endowment for Democracy.

Former President Obama spoke at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit in June, and at Stanford University in April about disinformation. The New York event is the Obama Foundation's own inaugural Democracy Forum with Columbia University and the University of Chicago.

Obama will speak on the state of democracy and participate in a conversation with emerging leaders from around the world.

Panels with domestic speakers will highlight the challenges of polarization, climate change, capitalism and disinformation.  

What they're saying: "I actually think it's terrific that we will have these back-to-back conferences," David J. Kramer, executive director of the Bush Institute, told Axios. 

"We're very mindful of what's happening in the United States, and we have to make sure we stay on a democratic path. At the same time, we have to help and support others around the world. So we can't simply fold up our tent and focus on everything at home. We have to focus on both things." 

Obama Foundation CEO Valerie Jarrett told Axios that as democracies around the world are challenged “the potential of the next generation of leaders needs our full support... We are delighted to see the Bush Center — another institution doing the hard work to strengthen democracy — convene in Dallas to advance our shared values."

Dallas

Dallas Members

Dallas Alerts

A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Dallas. Written by Michael Mooney and Tasha Tsiperas.

Axios Dallas Thought Bubble

Axios Dallas

Former Presidents Bush, Obama to hold back-to-back democracy conferences

Their events are happening the week after the U.S. midterm elections.

Photo: Former Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama/ Photo by Alyssa Pointer-Pool and  Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Democracy

Former U.S. Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama are headlining back-to-back democracy conferences next week, highlighting rising threats from authoritarianism and disinformation — and how to combat them globally and at home.Why it matters: Bush and Obama — a Republican and a Democrat respectively — didn&#x27;t coordinate their timing, organizers say. But their events — Bush&#x27;s is Nov. 16 in Dallas and Obama&#x27;s is Nov. 17 in New York — are happening the week after the U.S. midterm elections.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Margaret Talev

Stories

America's sudden change of heart on same-sex marriage

Two Americas Index: No politics at Thanksgiving, please

Former Presidents Bush, Obama to hold back-to-back democracy conferences

A heightened threat

Axios-Ipsos Latino poll: Warning signs for Dems

Newsletter editions

Axios AM Thought Bubble: Trump's gift to Biden

Axios Sneak Peek: Trump eyes New Mexico — Lewandowski's Senate tryout — Israel election preview