Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops.
Smart Brevity count: 1,470 words (5.5 minutes).
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
At a Trump rally back in February in El Paso, Texas, the campaign saw an unexpected pattern in the attendee data — a large crowd of New Mexicans crossed the state line to be there.
Why it matters: Since then, New Mexico has become an unlikely target for the 2020 Trump campaign. It's the state with the highest percentage of Hispanics and Latinos (about 1 in 2 residents), and it's gone with Democrats in 6 of the last 7 general elections.
Reality check: Demographers and pollsters tell Axios it's highly unlikely Trump can win New Mexico's 5 electoral votes.
But it's an inexpensive bet to take for the RNC, given its relatively small population and centralized media, said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Watch for Trump's former campaign manager at the House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday — and not just because of the prospect of a fiery exchange with Chairman Jerry Nadler, writes Axios' Alayna Treene.
Why it matters: If Corey Lewandowski goes forward with a run for the Senate in his home state of New Hampshire — which he's seriously considering, a spokesperson says — he'd be the first in Trump's inner circle to test those coattails.
What we're hearing: “Corey will use [the hearing] as part of the campaign. He will be confrontational to the Democrats. He will be totally loyal to Trump. And he will be playing to the right wing of the party who need to unite behind him in a primary," Thomas Rath, former attorney general of New Hampshire and adviser to several GOP presidential candidates, tells Axios.
Yes, but: A former Trump administration official tells Axios that "the ultimate risk with Corey running is that the negative coverage he receives in New Hampshire could drag Trump down."
Sources involved in members' preparations expect the hearing to be full of theatrics.
Netanyahu announces Sept. 10 that he'll annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank if he's re-elected. Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images (edited)
Israel holds elections Tuesday for the second time in less than 6 months, and the latest election polls showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party getting close to the magic number of 61 members in the Knesset for a right-wing bloc, reports Axios contributor Barak Ravid.
Why it matters: Netanyahu needs a 61-member right-wing coalition to win immunity if the attorney general decides to indict him for 3 cases of
corruption after his upcoming hearing on Oct. 3.
Driving the news: The last polls, published Friday, showed Likud tied with Benny Gantz's Blue and White party, with 32 seats each.
The big question: What happens if neither Netanyahu nor Gantz can form a coalition, a scenario that could drag Israel into the most protracted political crisis of its history.
Such an extraordinary situation would set up 2 key players:
Amid Trump's trade war with China, billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is putting on a major global economic event this November — in Beijing.
The big picture: Bloomberg's New Economy Forum, Nov. 20–22, in partnership with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, will draw about 500 business and technology leaders, academics and government officials from dozens of countries.
Justin B. Smith, CEO of Bloomberg Media, said China has welcomed the project "despite the geopolitical challenges" and that "one of the most important things we can do is plant a flag in the future."
"The NRA has held our Congress hostage," Elizabeth Warren says at the start of the second video to be released this month in a collection of gun control advocacy messages from former Rep. Gabby Giffords' group.
Photo: uschools/Getty Images
The House will swear in 2 Republican congressmen from North Carolina, Dan Bishop and Greg Murphy, Alayna writes.
The Senate is expected to vote on the following nominees this week, per a Republican leadership aide:
President Trump's schedule, per a White House official: