Democrats groan at AIPAC "overkill" against Jamaal Bowman

• "It might change how they talk about [Israel]," one moderate House Democrat said of their colleagues, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Driving the news: Bowman, a member of the progressive "Squad," was defeated handily in his primary election on Tuesday by Westchester County Executive George Latimer.

• AIPAC spent at least $14.5 million on anti-Bowman ads through its PAC, United Democracy Project, as of June 20, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
• Much of the spending came after a poll in March from pro-Israel group Democratic Majority for Israel showed Bowman trailing by 17 points.
• Bowman has emerged as one of Congress' most vocal critics of Israel in recent years, with Latimer running as a pro-Israel alternative in the heavily Jewish, affluent suburban district.

What we're hearing: AIPAC's record-shattering spending has some House Democrats rattled. "The number is gross ... I don't like it," one told Axios, calling the figure "overkill."

• "If anything that much money could backfire, because then you get people that are like, 'This is just wrong,'" the lawmaker added.
• Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) said it was "not necessary for AIPAC to spend so much money," arguing that Bowman was "sufficiently out of step with the district" that Latimer would have won with "a lot less" financial support.
• A senior House Democrat said spending at this volume inevitably has a chilling effect on lawmakers, saying of AIPAC: "They do that a lot."

What they're saying: "Pro-Israel activists are proud to engage in the democratic process and help elect candidates who stand with Israel as it battles Iranian terrorist proxies," said AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann.

• "This race presented a clear choice — between George Latimer who reflects the views of the Democratic mainstream in his congressional district and across the country, and his opponent who aligns with the extremist, anti-Israel fringe."

Zoom out: Bowman is one of just two House incumbents AIPAC has targeted this cycle, along with Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), another of Congress' most strident Israel critics.

• Both had unique scandals that made them particularly weak: Bowman pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge and was censured for pulling a Capitol Hill fire alarm, while Bush faces multiple investigations into her campaign finances.
• AIPAC sat out Rep. Summer Lee's (D-Pa.) primary challenge — in which she handily beat a novice pro-Israel opponent — and hasn't fielded challengers to several "Squad" members without glaring vulnerabilities.

Between the lines: "What AIPAC is doing here is they see a vulnerable member they don't like on their issue and they go after them," said a House Democrat.

• The lawmaker added: "Whatever you think of [AIPAC], they're pretty intelligent. They've got some skin in this in the sense that if Bowman wins, that's egg on their face. They're very strategic."
• "When that group saw an opportunity to make a point against someone they think is vulnerable, it doesn't surprise me. The number is pretty staggering," said another House Democrat.

Yes, but: Several House Democrats argued to Axios that Bowman's personal liabilities were a far greater issue for him than AIPAC's spending.

• "Every situation is unique, this one is particularly unique," said pro-Israel Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), saying Bowman "went out of his way to punch, to kick, to offend."
• "I know there's a large Jewish population in his district ... people want someone that reflects well on their community," Schneider added.
• Said another Democrat more bluntly: "AIPAC didn't pull a fire alarm. AIPAC didn't speculate about 9/11."

What to watch: Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), a leading Progressive Caucus member, said progressives need to strategize on how to counter this kind of spending moving forward.

• "We have to adapt to a moment where voters have to know that, if they're seeing a huge barrage of ads, they've got to ask questions and find out if those [millions] of dollars are telling [them] the truth," he told Axios.