National

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Note: Those highlighted in bold have officially entered the race. Data: FWIW Newsletter; Chart: Axios Visuals

In its first month, President Biden’s re-election campaign has already tripled what Donald Trump’s team has spent in online ads in 2023, an attempt to jump-start small donations and lessen Trump’s digital advantage.

Why it matters: Biden needs to lean more heavily into digital advertising to gain traction with donors, as he can’t rely on his organic reach online as much as Trump, who is currently the leading GOP presidential contender.

Despite Trump being temporarily banned by most major social media platforms in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection, his following still dwarfs Biden's and those of the 2024 GOP rivals.

Biden's campaign wants to signal strong grassroots support with a large number of individual donors when it discloses fundraising numbers in July.

Be smart: That's a shift from the 2020 election when Trump’s campaign focused on digital early on and hired a digital-first campaign manager, Brad Parscale.

Parscale ultimately was replaced, but Trump's campaign spent more online than Biden's, even as Biden's team spent significantly more on TV. A Biden adviser said the team believes its strategy was more effective for less money. 

Parscale and former digital director Gary Coby, who led Trump’s digital teams in 2016 and 2020, are not working for Trump’s 2024 campaign. Instead, Trump’s digital effort is being led by Parks Bennett, co-founder of the firm Campaign Inbox. 

Trump's main super PAC, Make America Great Again PAC, has spent nothing on Facebook or Google ads — but has dumped several million dollars into TV advertising. 

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Axios that "the campaign will fully utilize both traditional and non-traditional forms of media, including a significant investment in digital, to ensure President Trump’s message will reach as many people as possible." 

Zoom in: Biden's team has spent more than $2.4 million on Facebook and Google ads in its first month and has continued to be the top campaign spender on Facebook ads the past four weeks, according to data from FWIW News.

In its first week, Biden’s campaign spent more than $1 million on Facebook and Google ads, according to Bully Pulpit Interactive, a political ad agency. Most of the campaign's digital efforts are being run through the Democratic National Committee as the re-elect's infrastructure is being built, according to a Biden adviser. 

In all of 2023, Trump has spent more than $600,000 on such ads while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — widely expected to be Trump's chief GOP rival — has spent $680,000. That includes spending from their aligned super PACs, according to FWIW News. 

Zoom out: Trump’s social media following outpaces all of his rivals except on Snapchat, where he is permanently banned.

The other side: Since being reinstated on platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, Trump hasn't tweeted and he hasn't used Facebook, Instagram or YouTube as much as he did in the past. He posted most frequently on his own platform, Truth Social.

A Biden adviser told Axios that the campaign will absolutely not join Truth Social.

The big picture: The vast majority of election ad spending is still on broadcast television, but the proportion of digital advertising has been increasing steadily during the past decade. More eyeballs are there and it’s critical to each campaign’s small-dollar fundraising strategy.

Digital ads make it easier for campaigns to collect user data and get supporters to click on a donation page directly.

Neither campaign is on the popular app TikTok, although the Democratic National Committee has an account. For security purposes, the DNC says it posts to TikTok only with a burner phone.

The Republican National Committee has criticized Democrats for using the app, which is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance.

State of play: Neither the Trump nor Biden campaigns revealed their small-dollar fundraising totals in the first 24 hours of announcing their election bids, but there is early data suggesting a Trump edge in such fundraising.

When Trump appeared in a New York court to face felony charges last month, traffic to the Republican’s small-dollar fundraising site, WinRed, spiked to nearly 1 million views, according to Similarweb estimates. The site typically got about 275,000 views a day in April.

Biden's campaign launch on April 25 coincided with a peak of about 475,000 visits for the ActBlue Democratic Party fundraising website. The site had been getting a little over 300,000 visits per day.

A Biden adviser dismissed that data as like trying to measure weight in inches. The same adviser said that Biden was the best online fundraiser in the Democratic Party’s history.

Also, but: Biden raised unprecedented sums online during the 2020 general election against Trump but struggled to raise money online during the Democratic primary, when candidates such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren outpaced him.

Biden campaign spends big to close digital deficit

Former President Trump still has a bigger social media following.

2024 presidential election

2024 Elections

Media

In its first month, President Biden’s re-election campaign has already tripled what Donald Trump’s team has spent in online ads in 2023, an attempt to jump-start small donations and lessen Trump’s digital advantage.Why it matters: Biden needs to lean more heavily into digital advertising to gain traction with donors, as he can’t rely on his organic reach online as much as Trump, who is currently the leading GOP presidential contender.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The super PAC supporting Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign altered footage to include the sound and sight of fighter jets flying over the Florida governor in its video promoting his campaign launch.

The video by Never Back Down, called “A President for the People,” includes a scene with DeSantis raising his arm to the sky in front of a U.S. flag while jets appear above him, whooshing by.

But video of DeSantis' speech on Nov. 5, 2022, in Port St. Lucie indicates there wasn't a military flyover or jet sounds during the event.

Why it matters: It’s the latest instance of political ads including digitally altered videos to promote or attack candidates, making it difficult for viewers to discern what’s real.

What they’re saying: The PAC did not deny altering the footage but responded to Axios' questions by focusing on the video's larger message.

Communications director Erin Perrine told Axios: “The ‘President for the People’ video encapsulates the mounting issues facing our nation caused by Joe Biden, and how Governor Ron DeSantis will stand up to the challenge, beat Biden, and turn our country around. 

"This message and this election is so important for all Americans.”

Between the lines: The DeSantis PAC is a key part of his campaign, even though they cannot legally coordinate with each other.

Never Back Down has defended the Florida governor in recent months as he faced relentless attacks by former President Trump, DeSantis' rival for the Republican nomination.

The group’s leadership told The New York Times this week that they plan to raise $200 million and hire 2,600 field organizers by the fall.

political ads including digitally altered videos

raise $200 million and hire 2,600 field organizers

DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video

It's the latest instance of political ads using digitally altered videos to attack or promote candidates.

Video image of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis waving as fighter jets fly above.

Image from "A President for the People" video, as seen on YouTube

Ron DeSantis

The super PAC supporting <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/24/ron-desantis-florida-governor-us-president-2024" data-vars-content-id="46d65a44-8e14-4a75-a9af-9188e3c48f9c" data-vars-headline="DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/24/ron-desantis-florida-governor-us-president-2024" target="_self">Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign</a> altered footage to include the sound and sight of fighter jets flying over the Florida governor in its video promoting his campaign launch.<ul><li>The video by Never Back Down, called <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="“A President for the People,”" data-vars-click-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2nGYqO0nQk" data-vars-content-id="46d65a44-8e14-4a75-a9af-9188e3c48f9c" data-vars-headline="DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2nGYqO0nQk" target="_blank">“A President for the People,”</a> includes a scene with DeSantis raising his arm to the sky in front of a U.S. flag while jets appear above him, whooshing by.</li><li>But <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="video of DeSantis&#x27; speech" data-vars-click-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbDmA866V5E" data-vars-content-id="46d65a44-8e14-4a75-a9af-9188e3c48f9c" data-vars-headline="DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbDmA866V5E" target="_blank">video of DeSantis&#x27; speech</a> on Nov. 5, 2022, in Port St. Lucie indicates <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="there wasn&#x27;t a military flyover" data-vars-click-url="https://rumble.com/v1rsvvw-governor-desantis-speaks-at-dont-tread-on-florida-pit-stop-in-st.-lucie-cou.html" data-vars-content-id="46d65a44-8e14-4a75-a9af-9188e3c48f9c" data-vars-headline="DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://rumble.com/v1rsvvw-governor-desantis-speaks-at-dont-tread-on-florida-pit-stop-in-st.-lucie-cou.html" target="_blank">there wasn&#x27;t a military flyover</a> or jet sounds during the event.</li></ul>Why it matters: It’s the latest instance of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="political ads including digitally altered videos" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/29/how-ai-already-changing-2024-election" data-vars-content-id="46d65a44-8e14-4a75-a9af-9188e3c48f9c" data-vars-headline="DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/29/how-ai-already-changing-2024-election" target="_self">political ads including digitally altered videos</a> to promote or <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="attack candidates" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/rnc-slams-biden-re-election-bid-ai-generated-ad" data-vars-content-id="46d65a44-8e14-4a75-a9af-9188e3c48f9c" data-vars-headline="DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/rnc-slams-biden-re-election-bid-ai-generated-ad" target="_self">attack candidates</a>, making it difficult for viewers to discern what’s real.What they’re saying: The PAC did not deny altering the footage but responded to Axios&#x27; questions by focusing on the video&#x27;s larger message.<ul><li>Communications director Erin Perrine told Axios: “The ‘President for the People’ video encapsulates the mounting issues facing our nation caused by Joe Biden, and how Governor Ron DeSantis will stand up to the challenge, beat Biden, and turn our country around. </li><li>&quot;This message and this election is so important for all Americans.”</li></ul>Between the lines: The DeSantis PAC is a key part of his campaign, even though they cannot legally coordinate with each other.<ul><li>Never Back Down has defended the Florida governor in recent months as he faced relentless attacks by former President Trump, DeSantis&#x27; rival for the Republican nomination.</li></ul>The group’s leadership told The New York Times this week that they plan to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="raise $200 million and hire 2,600 field organizers" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/us/politics/ron-desantis-2024-super-pac.html" data-vars-content-id="46d65a44-8e14-4a75-a9af-9188e3c48f9c" data-vars-headline="DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/us/politics/ron-desantis-2024-super-pac.html" target="_blank">raise $200 million and hire 2,600 field organizers</a> by the fall.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' glitchy Twitter chat with Elon Musk on Wednesday was a stumbling start to his campaign's media strategy for 2024: Largely ignore mainstream media — and their tough questions — by sticking to conservative outlets.

Why it matters: DeSantis' safe-spaces game plan will test the powers of the conservative media ecosystem. If he can get past former President Trump to the general election, he'll likely have to appeal to more voters than the most conservative outlets can deliver.

DeSantis believes mainstream outlets are partisan even as they claim to be objective — and that he has little to gain by engaging with them. 

“I’m not going to sit there and humor them and treat them as some neutral arbiter,” he told libertarian John Stossel in an interview posted this week.

Zoom in: After a buggy 20 minutes on Twitter Spaces on Wednesday, DeSantis, Musk and moderator David Sacks finally returned in a new — and functioning — forum with a fraction of the original audience. DeSantis launched into a speech that resembled his pitch on his recent book tour.

As political foes and the Twitter universe mocked DeSantis and Musk over the glitches, DeSantis responded to questioners who praised him and his conservative record. Afterward, he posted a tongue-in-cheek video saying he “broke the internet.”

He followed that appearance with a Fox News primetime interview, and a radio interview with conservative host Mark Levin.

Today, DeSantis will appear with conservative radio hosts Erick Erickson, and then Dana Loesch. Friendly interviews earlier this week included a 40-minute sit-down with Stossel and a glowing New York Post profile of DeSantis' wife, Casey.

On Fox News, DeSantis said he'd fire FBI Director Chris Wray, a frequent target of Republicans who say the bureau has treated conservatives unfairly. “There would be a new (director) on day one.”

The big picture: DeSantis' insular operation has turned down interview requests from national media outlets while prioritizing access for conservative outlets — including a tiny Florida publication, the Florida Standard, that reports suggest was cooked up by DeSantis donors.

DeSantis told Stossel that newspapers have been partisan “for most of American history....You had a Hamilton paper and a Jefferson paper, and they were very stridently partisan...

"What bugs me, and I think a lot of Republicans, ... is they pretend that somehow they are objective.”

DeSantis' team did not respond to a request for comment.

Between the lines: President Biden also has mostly dodged sit-down interviews with reporters who aren’t ideologically aligned with him.

Trump avoided many mainstream outlets after his presidency, but recently has been more willing to expand his audiences — that's what led to his controversial town hall on CNN.

Trump’s team tried to bury DeSantis' announcement last night with a flurry of press releases citing polls, statements of support for Trump from lawmakers in early primary states, and ideological attacks.

Biden’s personal account also took a shot while DeSantis' Twitter Spaces feed was down — posting a link to the Biden campaign's donation page that said, "This link works." 

What they’re saying: “In true Ron DeSantis fashion, his presidential launch was quite literally not ready for prime time. Welcome to the race for the MAGA base, Ron!” Democratic National Committee spokesperson Ammar Moussa tells Axios.

Musk, after the DeSantis event, tweeted: “All Presidential candidates are most welcome" on Twitter.

Twitter banned Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection, but Musk has allowed him to return. 

When asked whether Trump might do so, a senior adviser to the former president said: “Why use the nuclear option when your opponent is using a BB gun?”

Glitches hit DeSantis' safe-space strategy

His campaign launch was a rocky start to his strategy of largely ignoring mainstream media and sticking to conservative outlets.

Scoop: Top Raimondo aide to depart Commerce

Legacki has helped the Biden administration promote the bipartisan CHIPS Act.

Gina Raimondo, U.S. commerce secretary, speaks at a conference.   

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo speaks at a conference earlier this month. Photo: Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Department of Commerce

Caitlin Legacki, senior adviser to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, is set to leave the department at the end of May, sources familiar with the matter tell Axios.Why it matters: Legacki, the secretary&#x27;s senior adviser for strategic communications, will depart after helping Raimondo become the Biden administration&#x27;s top surrogate in promoting the bipartisan CHIPS Act, the $280 billion program aimed at boosting the U.S. semiconductor industry.

The White House is kicking its outreach to congressional Democrats into overdrive as it tries to sell lawmakers on President Biden's debt ceiling deal with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Why it matters: Democratic votes likely will be necessary to pass the bill through the narrowly divided House led by McCarthy, given the vows from right-wing House Freedom Caucus members to oppose it.

Driving the news: The Biden administration's pitch to fellow Democrats is an intellectual appeal on the merits of the bill, rather than trademark D.C. tactics such as legislative horse-trading or high-pressure tactics.

After the deal was announced late Saturday, the White House sent out briefing materials and talking points to Democratic lawmakers.

The administration followed up with Zoom briefings for House and Senate Democrats on Sunday, in which Biden aides offered details on the president's deal with McCarthy.

Six issue-specific briefings are planned for Democrats on Monday and Tuesday — two each on key components of the plan: spending levels, changes to permitting rules for energy projects, and new work requirements for welfare recipients.

By the numbers: More than 60 House Democrats have received calls about the deal from administration officials including Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients, according to a White House official.

All House Democratic leaders have been called, as have the ranking Democrats on House committees, caucus chairs and leading Appropriations Committee members.

Some Senate Democrats have gotten those calls as well, the official said, but that outreach will begin in earnest on Monday.

Zoom in: House Democrats mostly used their Zoom briefing on Sunday to seek clarification on the details of the bill, according to members on the call and a recording obtained by Axios. 

Several members told Axios they felt more secure about voting for the bill afterward, and believe White House officials made a strong pitch.

The call also gave Democrats a chance to air their frustrations about being cut out of the debt ceiling talks — and largely kept in the dark by the White House, even after the deal was struck.

"I feel that the White House has not provided ... direct communication and consistent outreach," said Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), who was echoed by colleagues in the Zoom chat, according to a screenshot shared with Axios.

Horsford, the Congressional Black Caucus chair, said Republicans got in-depth details “within minutes of the deal being agreed to,” adding, “We’re in a messaging war… and we’re losing.”

White House director of legislative affairs Louisa Terrell, one of Biden's debt ceiling negotiators, responded that “we have pivoted now that we have an arrangement. We are … going to be able to be in a place to be really clear and crisp.”

State of play: Top Democrats are optimistic about being able to make up for enough GOP "no" votes to get the debt ceiling bill through the House — and avoid a catastrophic default by the U.S. government.

“Most are surprised by how modest the concessions appear to be," a senior House Democrat told Axios.

The lawmaker told Axios they expect the "vast majority" of the 213 Democrats in the 435-member House to vote for the bill if progressive Democrats don't actively whip against it.

House GOP sources have said as many as 60 of their members could vote against the package because its spending cuts don't go far enough – meaning it could need dozens of Democratic votes to pass.

House aides noted that while Freedom Caucus members have been vocal in blasting the bill, Democrats' misgivings have been relatively muted.

A senior progressive aide told Axios they expect all but a few of the most left-leaning Democrats to hold their noses and vote yes.

Yes, but: Not everyone is sold. One House Democrat with lingering concerns told Axios that Sunday's Zoom meeting with White House aides felt “scripted” and “there wasn’t real back and forth dialogue."

Even so, the lawmaker expects the issue-focused briefings that start today to provide the needed clarity.

“I think people are going to slowly get on board, but ... people still want answers.”

What's next: The House is expected to return to session on Tuesday, with votes on the debt ceiling bill scheduled for Wednesday.

House Freedom Caucus members to oppose it

Inside Biden’s relentless soft-sell on the debt ceiling bill

Several Democrats came out of a White House briefing more secure about voting for the bill.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the bipartisan budget agreement. Photo: Samuel Corum/AFP via Getty Images.

Joe Biden

The White House is kicking its outreach to congressional Democrats into overdrive as it tries to sell lawmakers on President Biden&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="debt ceiling deal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/29/biden-mccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-to-divided-congress" data-vars-content-id="f0dfc60e-9efb-46d9-a8c5-fa95d9650ad0" data-vars-headline="Inside Biden’s relentless soft-sell on the debt ceiling bill" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/29/biden-mccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-to-divided-congress" target="_self">debt ceiling deal</a> with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.Why it matters: Democratic votes likely will be necessary to pass <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="the bill " data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/29/bill-raise-debt-ceiling-limit-avoid-default-text-released" data-vars-content-id="f0dfc60e-9efb-46d9-a8c5-fa95d9650ad0" data-vars-headline="Inside Biden’s relentless soft-sell on the debt ceiling bill" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/29/bill-raise-debt-ceiling-limit-avoid-default-text-released" target="_self">the bill </a>through the narrowly divided House led by McCarthy, given the vows from right-wing <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="House Freedom Caucus members to oppose it" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/28/mccarthy-biden-big-debt-ceiling-test" data-vars-content-id="f0dfc60e-9efb-46d9-a8c5-fa95d9650ad0" data-vars-headline="Inside Biden’s relentless soft-sell on the debt ceiling bill" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/28/mccarthy-biden-big-debt-ceiling-test" target="_self">House Freedom Caucus members to oppose it</a>.

Alex Thompson

Stories

Inside Biden’s relentless soft-sell on the debt ceiling bill

DeSantis PAC adds fake fighter jets to launch video

Glitches hit DeSantis' safe-space strategy

Biden campaign spends big to close digital deficit

Scoop: Top Raimondo aide to depart Commerce