1 big thing: GOP's "Save the kids" gamble

2. 💸 McCarthy's optimism

3. 🔥 Day 1 of House hearings erupts into chaos

4. 👀 '24 watch: S.C. takes center stage

5. U.S. mourns Tyre Nichols

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 981 words ... 3.5 minutes.

📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Brad Bonhall.

Sneak Peek

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

blue

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: McCarthy rebels meet harsh reality

2. 👍 Trump's Facebook house arrest

Illustration of a happy Facebook emoji that resembles Donald Trump

3. 🇺🇦 Next Ukraine debate: F-16s

4. 🤫 Senate's document demands

5. 👋 Charted: Biden's Year 2 turnover

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,041 words ... 4 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: A trio of freshmen House Democrats is requesting a classified briefing on mass shootings, citing an "epidemic" of gun violence that has rocked the country in recent weeks, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Police reform's dire prospects

Illustration of a police badge in pieces with pieces of tape holding it together. 

2. 🏳️‍🌈 Trump's radical plan

3. 🐊 DeSantis sharpens Trump defense

4. 🔎 Biden's "transparency" blunder

5. 🏛️ McCarthy finds escape hatch on Omar vote

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 960 words ... 3.5 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: Tomorrow marks an inflection point in two of the top stories of this Congress — President Biden will sit down with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) at 3:15pm ET to discuss the debt ceiling, and House Republicans will hold their first oversight hearings.

1 big thing: Comer's two-step messaging war

Photo illustration of two James Comers, one talking and the other one reacting skeptically. 

2. 🔎 Axios interview: Impeachment star's next chapter

3. 🤫 GOP's "ostrich routine"

4. 👀 Senate shuffle: Who's in, who's out?

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 995 words ... 3.5 minutes.

🚨 Situational awareness: President Biden told Congress he would end COVID-19 emergencies on May 11, with wide-ranging implications for federal policy.

1 big thing: The evolution of Mitch McConnell

2. 🐘 RNC's identity crisis

3. 🌴 Senate's California showdown

4. 📊 Charted: Senate slow-walk

5. 🐦 Coming attractions: Twitter hearing

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,029 words ... 4 minutes.

🎂 Situational awareness: Happy birthday to Axios editor Justin Green and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. One of them received a celebratory visit from Elon Musk.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

National

Three national polls released this month show former President Trump holds a double-digit lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2024 Republican presidential primary.

Why it matters: DeSantis appears to be losing the favorability edge he opened up in November, after Republicans' disappointing results in the midterms and Trump's dinner with white nationalist Nick Fuentes significantly dented the former president's popularity.

Trio of polls show Trump clawing back momentum from DeSantis

DeSantis appears to be losing the favorability edge he opened up in December.

Donald Trump

Politics & Policy

The roots of today's debt-limit standoff stretch back to 2011, when the Tea Party movement helped force then-President Obama to agree to future spending caps in exchange for lifting the ceiling.

Zoom in: For Republicans, the achievement "validated one of the animating forces of the right over the past decade-plus — that the party’s failures are a result of weak, feckless leadership, and if they fight, they win," says GOP strategist Liam Donovan.

For Democrats, including then-Vice President Joe Biden, the episode demonstrated why they should never negotiate with hostage-takers. 

Driving the news: The Treasury Department has initiated what it calls "extraordinary measures" after the U.S. officially hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit on Thursday, giving the Biden administration and Congress six or so months to stave off a catastrophic default.

Why it matters: Every debt-ceiling standoff begins with both sides digging in their heels — and ends with one of them blinking. But the sour mood in Washington — and on Wall Street — suggests this time could be different.

Jeff Siegel, a former Senate staffer who's now head of U.S. public and regulatory policy at BNP Paribas, told Semafor "there's probably never been a greater chance" the U.S. defaults than this year.

The venerable political analyst Charlie Cook agrees, writing that the certainty of avoiding calamity through compromise is "lower than we have ever seen before."

What's happening: The Trump era's political incentives — including online fundraising that relies on hyperbole and bluster — have encouraged House Republicans to adopt a politics of grievance and intransigence.

Look no further than the way Freedom Caucus rebels dug in during the speaker election, forcing Rep. Kevin McCarthy to make historic concessions that empowered the conference's MAGA wing.

Many of those same rebels are once again in the driver's seat: With McCarthy agreeing to reduce the threshold for a no-confidence vote to just one member, any misstep on the debt ceiling could be fatal to his speakership.

The intrigue: Today's populist, culture war-driven GOP is less beholden to the business establishment than it once was, weakening the stakeholders most vocal about the dangers of playing with the country's credit. 

A screen shows the national debt clock after the US hit its debt limit and the Treasury started using "extraordinary measures" to avoid default on Jan. 19, 2023.

Photo: Fatih Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images 

Below are five possible scenarios for how one of the most consequential political fights of the Biden presidency could end:

McCarthy gives in: As outlined above, McCarthy unilaterally disarming on the debt ceiling would likely end his career. Freedom Caucus rebels have been coy about using the single-member "motion to vacate" to oust McCarthy if he fails to extract spending cuts — but it's hard to see what they would use it for, if not this.

Biden gives in: The White House's official line is that they will not negotiate on the debt ceiling. That position forced Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to blink during the last showdown in 2021, and Biden is determined to run the same playbook.

Compromise: The "smart money" is on both sides saving face by establishing a commission to make nonbinding recommendations for spending cuts. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has at times stifled Democrats' agenda over his own debt concerns, has signaled he may reintroduce a bipartisan bill to create a "rescue committee" for every endangered government trust fund.

Fed mints "the coin": Some progressives have called on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to use her unilateral authority to issue a small platinum token, give it a face value of $1 trillion, and deposit it at the Federal Reserve — circumventing Congress and the borrowing limit. Yellen has dismissed the loophole as a "gimmick."

The U.S. defaults: Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi predicted in 2021 that a default "would cost the U.S. economy up to 6 million jobs, wipe out as much as $15 trillion in household wealth, and send the unemployment rate surging to roughly 9% from around 5%," according to WaPo.

A debt-ceiling crisis years in the making

Every debt-ceiling standoff begins with both sides digging in their heels — and ends with one of them blinking.

Debt ceiling

The roots of today&#x27;s debt-limit standoff <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="stretch back to 2011" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/us/politics/01FISCAL.html" data-vars-content-id="20cdbbb6-9868-45e5-90ff-b5237cf43df6" data-vars-headline="A debt-ceiling crisis years in the making" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/us/politics/01FISCAL.html" target="_blank">stretch back to 2011</a>, when the Tea Party movement helped force then-President Obama to agree to future spending caps in exchange for lifting the ceiling.Zoom in: For Republicans, the achievement &quot;validated one of the animating forces of the right over the past decade-plus — that the party’s failures are a result of weak, feckless leadership, and if they fight, they win,&quot; <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="says GOP strategist Liam Donovan" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/opinion/republicans-house-freedom-caucus-mccarthy.html" data-vars-content-id="20cdbbb6-9868-45e5-90ff-b5237cf43df6" data-vars-headline="A debt-ceiling crisis years in the making" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/opinion/republicans-house-freedom-caucus-mccarthy.html" target="_blank">says GOP strategist Liam Donovan</a>.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has spent the last year forging a new path as a bipartisan dealmaker, an understated — but unmistakable — shift in strategy for a man who was Democrats' chief foil for more than a decade.

Why it matters: The self-described "Grim Reaper" of progressive policy has a reputation for ruthlessness. Now the longest-serving Senate leader in U.S. history, the 80-year-old McConnell is changing tack at a time when a string of election defeats has fueled a civil war within the GOP — and made it tougher to attract moderate candidates.

What's happening: McConnell said this week he'll take a back seat to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on debt-ceiling negotiations, publicly deferring one of the messiest partisan clashes of the year.

McConnell was in charge the last time the debt ceiling came up, in December 2021, and angered some Republicans by striking a deal to allow Democrats to raise the limit themselves. 

This time, as House Republicans threaten to hold the debt ceiling hostage unless Democrats agree to budget cuts, McConnell has remained quiet while simply promising: "We won't default."

Flashback: McConnell infuriated right-wing Republicans in December by supporting a $1.7 trillion omnibus package in the lame-duck session, taking spending negotiations out of the hands of the incoming House GOP majority.

On Jan. 4, McConnell appeared with President Biden in Kentucky to celebrate the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law — a photo op that drew further outrage from the right, including from former President Trump.

With McConnell's blessing, Senate Republicans also worked with Democrats in 2022 to pass the first major gun safety legislation in nearly 30 years, reforms to the Electoral Count Act and a $280 billion China competition bill.

Between the lines: McConnell's evolution can be chalked up in part to the realities of life in the Senate minority, longtime McConnell political adviser Scott Jennings told Axios.

Jennings dismissed the idea that the senator largely operated as an obstructionist a decade ago, and said the Senate's 60-vote threshold for bypassing filibusters has always required cooperation.

McConnell sees protecting the filibuster as a legacy-defining mission; key to his strategy has been showing that the Senate can still be a model of bipartisanship.

Zoom in: McConnell has loudly attributed Republicans' election woes to their failure to recruit quality Senate candidates, indicating that such prospects are being scared off by the chaos in the party.

After the 2022 midterm debacle, McConnell vowed not to let a "diminished" Trump hand-pick Senate candidates, citing the need to win back independents and moderate Republicans. Trump-backed Senate candidates such as Herschel Walker (Georgia) and Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania) lost races many Republicans deemed winnable.

McConnell's choices for the Senate such as former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, meanwhile, chose not to run in 2022.

Sununu, in particular, cited the lack of GOP agenda beyond obstructing Biden until 2024 as the main reason he opted out.

What we're watching: Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is the latest moderate Republican to weigh a Senate bid. He visited Washington on Wednesday to sniff out whether he wants to risk life in partisan purgatory. 

"I’m not the least bit worried, honestly, about losing an election. I’m worried about winning it and regretting it for six years," Daniels told Politico.

What to watch: Democrats could feasibly win the White House, flip the House, and lose the Senate in 2024 because of the GOP's historically favorable Senate map. If McConnell were to emerge as the sole barrier to a Biden second-term agenda, we could see a return of the Grim Reaper.

The evolution of Mitch McConnell

We're seeing shift in strategy for a man who was Democrats' chief foil for more than a decade.

Mitch McConnell

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has spent the last year forging a new path as a bipartisan dealmaker, an understated — but unmistakable — shift in strategy for a man who was Democrats&#x27; chief foil for more than a decade.Why it matters: The self-described &quot;<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Grim Reaper" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-vows-to-be-the-grim-reaper-to-thwart-all-democratic-proposals/" data-vars-content-id="5afd4edd-46bb-4377-bbe2-2cb7da821c2b" data-vars-headline="The evolution of Mitch McConnell" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-vows-to-be-the-grim-reaper-to-thwart-all-democratic-proposals/" target="_blank">Grim Reaper</a>&quot; of progressive policy has a reputation for ruthlessness. Now the longest-serving Senate leader in U.S. history, the 80-year-old McConnell is changing tack at a time when a string of election defeats has <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fueled a civil war" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/republican-civil-war-trump-mcconnell-scott" data-vars-content-id="5afd4edd-46bb-4377-bbe2-2cb7da821c2b" data-vars-headline="The evolution of Mitch McConnell" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/republican-civil-war-trump-mcconnell-scott" target="_self">fueled a civil war</a> within the GOP — and made it tougher to attract moderate candidates.

Unprecedented in U.S. history: Two special counsels are now investigating two presidents who ran against each other in the last election — with a high likelihood they will do so again in 2024.

Why it matters: Look no further than the last half-decade at the Justice Department for a snapshot of America's polarized politics.

2017: Robert Mueller is appointed by deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein to investigate the 2016 Trump campaign's ties to Russia.

2020: John Durham is appointed by Attorney General Bill Barr to "investigate the investigators" for possible abuses during the Russia probe.

2022: Jack Smith is appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate Trump's handling of classified documents and efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

2023: Robert Hur is appointed by Garland to investigate President Biden's handling of classified documents.

Driving the news: Garland said Thursday that he "strongly" believes normal DOJ processes could have handled the Biden investigation "with integrity" — but that "extraordinary circumstances" led him to conclude a special counsel was necessary.  

Garland didn't elaborate, but those circumstances undoubtedly include his decision less than two months earlier to appoint a special counsel to investigate Biden's chief political rival over his own classified documents scandal.

The distinctions between the Trump and Biden cases are significant, but just the presence of the files at Biden's private office and Delaware home has provided a massive political gift to Republicans.

Between the lines: Trump's war on institutions — and Democrats' response to a figure they view as uniquely dangerous — has fostered a system in which virtually any investigation of a politician is seen through a partisan lens.

Garland, a former federal judge, has been painstaking in his efforts to avoid the slightest possible appearance of politicization.

He specifically chose Trump-appointed U.S. attorneys to conduct both the initial review of Biden's classified documents and the subsequent special counsel inquiry.

Some former federal prosecutors have expressed skepticism that the appointment of a special counsel — which DOJ regulations say is warranted if there is a basis for a "criminal" investigation — was necessary based on the known facts.

What they're saying: Harry Litman, a former U.S. attorney and deputy assistant attorney general, believes Garland made the decision out of an "abundance of caution."

"I suspect the White House welcomes the decision, just to be able to say, 'We're totally on the up and up and DOJ is handling it with a Trump-appointed, hard-nosed U.S. attorney, which Hur is,' Litman said on CNN.

Andrew Weissmann, a lead prosecutor on the Mueller investigation, added on Twitter: "Appointment of Hur makes it much easier for Jack Smith to bring Trump [Mar-a-Lago documents] charges. Gives DOJ the necessary reality and appearance of balance and fairness."

The bottom line: None of these careful steps are likely to placate Republicans who see Garland as a partisan attack dog — and have made investigating the "weaponization of the federal government" a top priority of the new Congress.

The era of special counsels

Virtually any investigation of a politician is seen through a partisan lens.

Photo:  Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Special prosecutors

Unprecedented in U.S. history: Two special counsels are now investigating two presidents who ran against each other in the last election — with a high likelihood they will do so again in 2024.Why it matters: Look no further than the last half-decade at the Justice Department for a snapshot of America&#x27;s polarized politics.

The discovery of classified documents at former Vice President Mike Pence's Indiana home has thrown yet another wrench in a bizarre saga that has now ensnared three of the top candidates for president in 2024.

Why it matters: Politically, this makes things a lot more complicated for the Republicans eager to weaponize President Biden's mishandling of classified documents.

Legally, it raises questions about over-classification — a long-running gripe from transparency advocates — as well as exactly how common this type of negligence is at the highest levels of government.

"We have an epidemic of senior leaders taking classified [documents] home. And we have to say categorically, whether it’s Republican or Democrat, it's all wrong," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told NBC News, expressing support for a third special counsel to investigate Pence.

Zoom in: House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) — who launched an investigation the day after the Biden documents were disclosed, blasting the president for "potentially violating the law" — is now facing a credibility test.

Comer issued a statement today praising Pence for his transparency, saying he reached out to the committee and pledged full cooperation.

Other Republicans are likely to adopt a similar defense, attempting to draw a contrast between the way Biden and Pence disclosed the discoveries.

But some have put themselves in the awkward position of previously attacking the underlying conduct that both VPs — as it currently stands — appear to have engaged in.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a new member of the Oversight Committee, said on Fox News on Jan. 9 that Biden "conceivably stole those documents" and did not have the power to declassify information as vice president.

Even Pence himself has criticized Biden for the act of taking classified documents, calling it "a very serious matter" and insisting that he took no such materials after the Trump administration ended.

Trump, possibly with tongue-in-cheek, appears to defend Pence. Via Truth Social

Between the lines: CNN reports that former President Trump's legal team views the discovery of the Pence documents as a positive development that could make it more difficult for the Justice Department to bring charges, citing linkage in the three cases.

But many legal experts say the opposite: Both Biden and Pence immediately contacted the National Archives and cooperated with the FBI after the documents were found.

Trump, on the other hand, is accused of failing to turn documents over for more than a year — even after facing a grand jury subpoena. 

That distinction, which led to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, may further pave the way for the obstruction of justice charges already at the heart of the Trump investigation.

Editor's note: This story was corrected to note that Comer launched his investigation the day after the Biden documents were disclosed, not the day after they were found.

Pence complicates GOP's classified documents messaging

But it may make things easier for the Justice Department's Trump investigation.

Mike Pence

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="discovery of classified documents" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/mike-pence-classified-documents" data-vars-content-id="e00a9b7a-c996-4621-ad15-adb03d8529c5" data-vars-headline="Pence complicates GOP&#x27;s classified documents messaging" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/mike-pence-classified-documents" target="_self">discovery of classified documents</a> at former Vice President Mike Pence&#x27;s Indiana home has thrown yet another wrench in a bizarre saga that has now ensnared three of the top candidates for president in 2024.Why it matters: Politically, this makes things a lot more complicated for the Republicans eager to weaponize President Biden&#x27;s mishandling of classified documents.

Zachary Basu

Stories

The evolution of Mitch McConnell

Pence complicates GOP's classified documents messaging

Trio of polls show Trump clawing back momentum from DeSantis

A debt-ceiling crisis years in the making

The era of special counsels

Newsletter editions

🎓 GOP's "Save the kids" gamble

🏳️‍🌈 Trump's radical plan

🤫 GOP's "ostrich routine"

💀 "Grim Reaper" evolution

🤫 Rebels' harsh reality