1 big thing: Furious Trump faces judge

2. 🔥 McCarthy showdown begins

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy responds to Matt Gaetz's motion to vacate with "Bring it on" on X.

3. 🚒 Bowman's damage control

4. 👀 Kelly confirms Trump's veteran bashing

🎃 Happy Monday. The new government funding deadline is Nov. 17 — just in time for everyone's favorite political day of the year: Thanksgiving.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,081 words ... 4 minutes.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

Sneak Peek

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

blue

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

Standard

1 big thing: GOP's "Survivor" debate

2. 👀 McCarthy vs. McConnell

3. ⚖️ Menendez gets breathing room

4. ⛪ Poll du jour: Trump's faith

Welcome back to Sneak. The second GOP presidential debate kicks off at 9pm ET on Fox News and Fox Business. Follow our coverage on Axios.com.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,092 words ... 4 minutes.

⚡ Situational awareness: The federal judge overseeing former President Trump's election interference case has denied his request to recuse herself over past statements in other Jan. 6-related cases.

1 big thing: McCarthy's stunning downfall

2. ⚡ Where McCarthy went wrong

3. 📺 Gaetz's in-kind contribution

4. 🔥 Why candidates matter

Illustration of the Republican elephant logo with a boxing glove on its trunk, punching itself in the face.

Welcome back to Sneak after another historic, chaotic, bonkers day on Capitol Hill. We are firmly in uncharted territory.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,053 words ... 4 minutes.

1 big thing: Impeachment's sputtering start

2. 👀 Dems quietly weigh McCarthy bailout

3. 🌵 Biden's McCain tribute

4. 🦄 Youngkin fantasy lives on

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,091 words ... 4 minutes.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: McCarthy's blame game

2. ✊ Biden makes history

3. ⚖️ Menendez's unlikely defenders

4. 🏛️ Charted: Freshman rebels

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,019 words ... 4 minutes.

🚨 Situational awareness: A New York state judge ruled ahead of a civil trial next week that former President Trump committed fraud by exaggerating his net worth on financial records.

National

Some House Republicans appeared taken by surprise when two of their handpicked witnesses at the first impeachment hearing testified that there isn't sufficient evidence — at least not yet — to impeach President Biden.

Why it matters: Having launched an impeachment inquiry without a House vote, no direct of evidence of wrongdoing and against the backdrop of an imminent government shutdown, Republicans are embarking on a risky expedition that could backfire with voters if they fail to deliver.

"[W]hile I believe that an impeachment inquiry is warranted, I do not believe that the evidence currently meets the standard of a high crime and misdemeanor needed for an article of impeachment," conservative law professor Jonathan Turley said in his opening statement.

Forensic accountant Bruce Dubinsky agreed, testifying that "much more information needs to be gathered" before it can be determined whether Biden committed a crime related to his son Hunter's business dealings.

Driving the news: The Biden campaign's rapid-response team immediately clipped and circulated Turley's comments, racking up thousands of retweets.

"Picking witnesses that refute House Republicans' arguments for impeachment is mind-blowing," a senior GOP aide told CNN as the hearing kicked off. "This is an unmitigated disaster."

"This hearing wasn't supposed to be about fireworks and bells and whistles. This isn't the Jan. 6 committee," House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) countered after the hearing ended. "This is a substantive investigation."

Zoom in: Over the last nine months, Republicans have obtained documents and sworn testimony indicating that Hunter Biden engaged in an unethical campaign to sell clients "the illusion of access" to his father, as his former business partner Devon Archer described it.

Biden has made false claims regarding what he knew about Hunter's business dealings, but there's no evidence the president personally received money, traded U.S. policy for bribes or committed any crimes.

What they're saying: "While it may not sit well with many, President Biden and other presidents can be dishonest — can even lie to the American people — and that would not constitute an impeachable offense," Turley testified.

"Indeed, most presidents have lied to the American people."

Raskin displays a clock counting down the hours until the government shuts down. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Between the lines: Democrats came to the hearing equipped with opposition research and physical props, including a digital clock counting down the hours until the government shuts down.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) green-lit the impeachment inquiry this month in hopes that GOP hardliners — who have threatened to oust him if he doesn't agree to dramatic budget cuts — would ease up on their spending demands.

The peace offering backfired, leaving vulnerable Republicans to defend the unsavory optics of keeping the "essential" impeachment inquiry rolling while much of the government shuts down Sunday at midnight.

The intrigue: Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) asked committee members to raise their hands if they believe both Hunter Biden and former President Trump "should be held accountable" if convicted at their trials.

In a stark illustration of the impeachment inquiry's partisan challenges, every Democrat's hand went up; Republicans refused to participate.

What to watch: Comer concluded the hearing by announcing he was issuing subpoenas for the personal and business bank records of Hunter and James Biden, the president's brother.

Biden impeachment hearing gets off to sputtering start

"This is an unmitigated disaster," a senior GOP aide told CNN as the hearing kicked off.

House Oversight Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (left) and Chairman James Comer (right). Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Biden impeachment

Politics & Policy

Former President Trump's violent rhetoric — a staple of his political brand dating back to 2015 — has grown more extreme as the walls have begun to close in on his business empire, livelihood and personal freedom.

Why it matters: Since he left office, Trump's erratic behavior has been masked, numbed and normalized by the political fatigue permeating the media and the public.

But his words' violent turn in recent weeks — calling for a U.S. military leader to be executed, mocking a potentially fatal assault on a congressional spouse, urging police to shoot shoplifters — suggest a line has been crossed.

On Tuesday, Judge Arthur Engoron, who's presiding over Trump's civil fraud trial in New York, imposed a gag order on Trump after the defendant attacked Engoron's clerk online and posted a link to her Instagram account — while sitting in the same courtroom as her.

Zoom in: Political scientist Brian Klaas has coined it "the banality of crazy," arguing that the press has wrongfully elevated concerns about President Biden's age and frequent gaffes while downplaying Trump's extremism.

Much of the public may be in the dark about Trump's darkening rhetoric, Klaas writes, but "the people most likely to be radicalized by him or to act on his incitement already hear him, loud and clear."

"Maybe, just maybe, it would be better for all of us if they knew about the other insane, dangerous rhetoric he spews on a daily basis," Klaas says.

In speeches, interviews and on social media in recent weeks, Trump:

Said former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley committed "treason" and suggested he be executed.

Called for Judge Engoron to be disbarred, thrown out of office and criminally prosecuted, in addition to attacking the judge's clerk.

Labeled New York Attorney General Letitia James — who's suing Trump for fraudulently inflating his wealth and assets on financial records  — a "racist" and "a monster."

Said special counsel Jack Smith — who's prosecuting Trump in the Jan. 6 and classified documents cases — is "deranged" and a "psycho" who "looks like a crackhead."

Posted online, "IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I'M COMING AFTER YOU!" — one day after swearing in federal court that he would not intimidate witnesses in the election interference case.

Mocked Paul Pelosi after he was brutally assaulted by a home intruder who was searching for Pelosi's wife, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)

Called for police to shoot shoplifters on sight.

Said migrants illegally crossing into the U.S. are "poisoning the blood of our country."

Between the lines: Mainstream media rarely carry Trump's campaign speeches live anymore, so many Americans likely missed out on his expletive-laden impersonation of President Biden and his rambling musings last week about preferring death by electrocution to being eaten by a shark.

Trump's migration from Twitter to Truth Social also has shrouded his daily broadsides from mainstream view, as well as his routine elevation of users that traffic in QAnon conspiracy theories or white nationalism.

Elected Republicans rarely are asked or feel compelled to answer for Trump's extremism, offering tried-and-true excuses such as, "I didn't see it," or "It's just Trump being Trump."

Trump's team did not respond to a request for comment.

Zoom in: The normalization of political violence — or at least the threat of it — has been one of the most jarring and lasting impacts of Trump's dominance of the GOP, especially in the wake of his four indictments this year.

Between April and June, the percentage of Americans who agreed that "the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency" increased from 4.5% to 7%, according to the Chicago Project on Security and Threats.

Threats to FBI personnel have risen more than 300% since agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago in August, according to the New York Times.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), a prominent Trump critic in the GOP, revealed recently that he paid $5,000 a day for private security for his family after Jan. 6: "It only takes one really disturbed person," he told The Atlantic.

The bottom line: Trump's courtroom debut this week provided a glimpse of whether he would tone down his rhetoric once his trials began. The early verdict is a resounding no.

expletive-laden impersonation of President Biden

Trump's words turn violent as pressure on him builds

His words have gotten more extreme as the walls have begun to close in on his business empire, livelihood and personal freedom.

Illustrated collage featuring images of President Trump along with various boxes with symbols of swear words

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Spencer Platt, Shannon Stapleton-Pool,  Brendan Smialowksi/AFP via Getty Images

Donald Trump

Former President Trump&#x27;s violent rhetoric — a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="staple of his political brand" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/02/trump-call-violence-presidency" data-vars-content-id="20d4d0b4-3a5a-4e61-a763-a943ea01c092" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s words turn violent as pressure on him builds" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/02/trump-call-violence-presidency" target="_self">staple of his political brand</a> dating back to 2015 — has grown more extreme as the walls have begun to close in on his business empire, livelihood and personal freedom.Why it matters: Since he left office, Trump&#x27;s erratic behavior has been masked, numbed and normalized by the political fatigue permeating the media and the public.

Over the last 72 hours, former President Trump's daily torrent of online grievances crossed — not for the first time — into musings about "treason" and the execution of his political enemies.

Why it matters: Despite claims of a strategic "pivot" to the general election, Trump appears committed to the same unrestrained, sometimes violent rhetoric that alienated many independent voters in 2020. 

The Biden campaign, which has relentlessly sought to brand Trump and his allies as "extreme," is taking notice.

So, too, is the FBI: Threats against bureau personnel have surged more than 300% since agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last August, according to a New York Times deep dive on the growing risk of political violence in the wake of Trump's indictments.

Driving the news: Trump began the weekend by accusing retiring Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley of a "treasonous act," after the Atlantic published a profile detailing how the nation's top general navigated the Trump presidency.

"This is an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!" Trump posted on Truth Social, referring to Milley's reassurance to his Chinese counterpart in the days after Jan. 6 that the U.S. would not suddenly attack China.

48 hours later, Trump again invoked "treason" — this time, vowing to use the presidency to investigate NBC News parent company Comcast over its "one-sided and vicious coverage."

The intrigue: The Biden White House took the rare step of responding to Trump's attack on NBC Monday morning, potentially previewing a more aggressive stance toward the former president's online diatribes.

"To abuse presidential power and violate the constitutional rights of reporters would be an outrageous attack on our democracy and the rule of law," White House spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement.

The big picture: On at least three other fronts this weekend, Trump's online missives aligned to a remarkable degree with the Biden campaign's messaging about its likely Republican opponent.

Abortion: Trump boasted of his role in the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and claimed there "would be no talk of a six-week ban" on abortion "without me" — even as he criticized some Republicans for opposing exceptions to strict abortion laws.

Voting rights: Trump attacked Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) for implementing automatic voter registration — calling it "a disaster for the Election of Republicans, including your favorite President, ME!"

Government shutdown: Trump urged House Republicans to embrace a maximalist position in order to change Biden's border policies and intervene in his criminal cases: "UNLESS YOU GET EVERYTHING, SHUT IT DOWN!" he demanded.

Reality check: While the Biden campaign seems content to allow Trump to assemble his own opposition file, a spate of recent polls suggests the former president's erratic rhetoric may already be priced in for many voters.

Trump's incendiary statements no longer command headlines to the extent they once did, with elected Republicans frequently waving them away as "Trump being Trump."

Perceptions of Biden's age and economic record, meanwhile, have driven his disapproval rating to the highest of his presidency.

Trump hands gift to Biden campaign with extreme online rhetoric

Trump mused over the weekend about "treason" and the execution of his political enemies.

Illustration of a gift box with a red necktie as a ribbon

Over the last 72 hours, former President Trump&#x27;s daily torrent of online grievances crossed — <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="not for the first time" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2019/06/16/trump-treason-russia-investigation-new-york-times" data-vars-content-id="a7fe38ec-9206-44fd-8f85-4e4014def78b" data-vars-headline="Trump hands gift to Biden campaign with extreme online rhetoric" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2019/06/16/trump-treason-russia-investigation-new-york-times" target="_self">not for the first time</a> — into musings about &quot;treason&quot; and the execution of his political enemies.Why it matters: Despite claims of a strategic &quot;pivot&quot; to the general election, Trump appears committed to the same unrestrained, sometimes violent rhetoric that alienated many independent voters in 2020.

Chaos reigned in the second GOP presidential debate, which brought together seven candidates who are collectively polling at around 37% — a full 16 points below former President Trump.

Why it matters: Trump has paid no price for skipping the debates — his polling share has actually increased from 52% to 54% since the August affair — and he looks set to steamroll his way to the GOP nomination absent a political earthquake or consolidation of the field.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is clinging to second place after a summer reset, delivered perhaps the only appropriate response to the long odds he and every other candidate faces: "Polls don't elect presidents — voters elect presidents."

But as the two-hour spectacle wound down at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., strong performances from DeSantis, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott ultimately seemed unlikely to reshape the trajectory of the race.

DeSantis finally made his move at Trump after ignoring the former president during the first debate: "Donald Trump is missing in action. He should be on this stage tonight," he declared, before returning to the well later on to attack Trump over positions on abortion.

The problem? DeSantis' reluctance to assert himself early on allowed former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has centered his campaign on taking down Trump, to make virtually the same point 90 seconds earlier.

Christie dubbed Trump "Donald Duck" for skipping the debates — a line that produced groans from the audience but achieved its apparent goal of trending on social media.

2. Haley flaunts "bring it on" mentality.

Haley, who saw the biggest polling boost after her first debate performance, was sharp on policy details and came prepared to brawl — including by launching the first attack DeSantis had faced in either of the two debates.

The former South Carolina governor had a heated exchange with Scott over who has better experience — at one point confidently responding, "Bring it, Tim" — and renewed her feud with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy over his foreign policy views.

"Honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say," Haley snapped at Ramaswamy after he defended his campaign's decision to join TikTok.

In a sign that Haley has come to be viewed as a potential threat, the Trump campaign circulated a fact sheet in the middle of the debate titled, "The Real Nikki Haley."

Haley wasn't the only one to go after Ramaswamy, the Trump-praising, "America First" newcomer whose stock has tumbled some since he broke out as a potential threat to DeSantis' hold on second place.

After Ramaswamy stated "these are good people on this stage," Scott reminded him of his claim from the first debate that every candidate besides Ramaswamy was "bought and paid for."

Scott then jabbed Ramaswamy over his business dealings in China.

Former Vice President Mike Pence piled on: "I'm glad Vivek pulled out of his business deal in 2018 in China. That must have been about the time you decided to vote in presidential elections."

One of the night's most fascinating dynamics was what played on screen during the various commercial breaks.

Right before the debate began, Fox aired the Biden's campaign first ad of the election season attacking Trump — specifically over the former president's record with autoworkers and manufacturing jobs.

As the candidates wrapped up a heated debate over the national security threat from TikTok, Fox cut to a commercial from the Chinese-owned social media app that several of them have vowed to ban.

A group called Republicans for Ukraine also aired an ad highlighting how U.S. aid has helped degrade Russia's military without putting American boots on the ground — a highly divisive issue within the GOP that's playing out in Congress' spending impasse as well the debate stage.

The bottom line: The Biden and the Trump campaigns were both active in attacking the candidates on stage throughout the night, but they're reserving most of their fire for each other.

"Does anybody see a VP in that group? I don't think so," Trump quipped during his counter-programming speech in Michigan late Wednesday.

Haley shines, Trump a target: Key takeaways from the GOP debate

Chaos reigned in the second GOP presidential debate.

Photo: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Presidential debates

Chaos reigned in the second GOP presidential debate, which brought together seven candidates who are collectively polling at around 37% — a full 16 points below former President Trump.Why it matters: Trump has paid no price for skipping the debates — his polling share has actually increased from 52% to 54% since the August affair — and he looks set to steamroll his way to the GOP nomination absent a political earthquake or consolidation of the field.

A livid former President Trump attended the first day of his civil fraud trial Monday in New York, where he used every free moment as a chance to excoriate the judge who will determine the fate of his business empire.

Why it matters: Trump's palpable anger on social media and at the courthouse offered a sampling of how his combative rhetoric on the campaign trail could play out — and potentially backfire — in his legal defense.

Politically, Trump's grievance campaign in the wake of his four indictments has been a success — catapulting him to a 40-point lead over the rest of the GOP field.

Legally, the wisdom of provoking judges and prosecutors with endless claims of a "witch hunt" will now face a critical test — especially with Trump himself vowing to take the stand.

Driving the news: Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron — who ruled last week that Trump committed fraud by inflating his wealth and assets on financial records — will preside over a non-jury trial to determine damages in the case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James.

Depending on the outcome of the trial, Trump could lose control of some of his flagship New York properties — striking at the heart of the real estate empire that vaulted him into the national and political spotlight.

Trump claimed outside the courtroom that he is the one who has been "defrauded," accusing Engoron of drastically undervaluing his properties and failing to account for the prestige of the Trump "brand."

What they're saying: "This is a judge that should be disbarred. This is a judge that should be out of office. This is a judge that some people say could be charged criminally for what he's doing," an indignant Trump told reporters at the courthouse.

Between the lines: While this is a civil trial, Trump has made no such distinction when comparing the case brought by James to the 91 criminal charges he faces in New York, D.C., Florida and Georgia.

"It all comes down from the DOJ. They totally coordinate this in Washington," Trump baselessly declared, accusing James and other prosecutors of coming after him for political purposes.

Asked why he decided to attend the trial in person, Trump replied: "Because I want to watch this witch hunt myself."

What to watch: Engoron appears to have ignored Trump's incendiary rhetoric so far. But the former president may not be so lucky at his federal trial in D.C., where prosecutors have again called for a gag order in light of his threatening statements on social media.

Furious Trump tests campaign bluster at courthouse

"This is a judge that should be disbarred. This is a judge that should be out of office."

Trump sits in the courtroom, flanked by his attorneys. New York AG Letitia James (top left) looks on from the first row. Photo: Seth Wenig/AP Photo/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A livid former President Trump <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="attended the first day" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/10/02/trump-civil-trial-new-york-2024" data-vars-content-id="fd8600fe-c397-4eb3-b597-7b62d6aabe3f" data-vars-headline="Furious Trump tests campaign bluster at courthouse" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/10/02/trump-civil-trial-new-york-2024" target="_self">attended the first day</a> of his civil fraud trial Monday in New York, where he used every free moment as a chance to excoriate the judge who will determine the fate of his business empire.Why it matters: Trump&#x27;s palpable anger on social media and at the courthouse offered a sampling of how his combative rhetoric on the campaign trail could play out — and potentially backfire — in his legal defense.

Zachary Basu

Stories

Trump's words turn violent as pressure on him builds

Furious Trump tests campaign bluster at courthouse

Biden impeachment hearing gets off to sputtering start

Haley shines, Trump a target: Key takeaways from the GOP debate

Trump hands gift to Biden campaign with extreme online rhetoric

Newsletter editions

🚨 McCarthy's stunning downfall

🔥 McCarthy showdown begins

🔎 Impeachment's sputtering start

🌴 GOP's "Survivor" debate

⚖️ Menendez's unlikely defenders