1 big thing: Why this time could be different

Memorial in front of Robb Elementary School

2. "Red flag" momentum

3. Beto's four "solutions"

4. Charted: NRA influence

5. 🌵 Tweet du jour

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 966 words ... 3.5 minutes.

💰 Breaking: A "dark money" group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is gearing up for a $43 million summer spending blitz targeting five competitive Senate seats, Axios' Lachlan Markey scooped. 

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Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct the spelling of former Rep. Gabby Giffords' first name.

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Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: Europe's China hardliners

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2. Part II: Little Lithuania stands its ground

3. Global news roundup

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Bonus: Where in the world?

4. Crisis brews in Bosnia

5.  Exclusive: Top Republicans demand Biden's nuclear questionnaire

6. The hottest ticket in town

7. Stories we're watching

Welcome back to Axios World. National security reporter Zach Basu here, filling in for Dave while he and his new puppy take a road trip down South.

Tonight's edition (1,678 words, 6 minutes) begins with Europeans in Taipei, takes a pit stop in Vilnius, and wraps up with a look at the hottest ticket in town.

Heads-up: We'll be off for Veterans Day on Thursday, but Dave will be back in your inboxes next week.

Situational awareness: The Chinese Communist Party is meeting for its annual plenum, where Xi Jinping is expected to lay the groundwork to secure an unprecedented third term. Go deeper.

Answer: The island is Jersey, a British crown dependency 14 miles from the coast of France. The beach is Omaha, one of the five landing areas during the Allied invasion of Normandy.

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1 big thing: Again.

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2. Sandy Hook senator speaks

3. GOP parades Georgia's early turnout

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4. Charted: Cash floods election ref races

5. Biden calls Abbott

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,178 words ... 4.5 minutes.

Situational awareness: President Biden will deliver remarks on the horrific elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, at 8:15pm ET. Get the latest.

🗳️ Polls have closed in Georgia (7pm ET) and Alabama (8pm ET). Next up are Arkansas (8:30pm ET), Texas (9pm ET) and Minnesota (9pm ET). 

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) will face off in November for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia.

Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will face Stacey Abrams (D) in the Georgia governor's race, after Kemp defeated Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue in the GOP primary.

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Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to show at least 1 adult was killed in the shooting. The shooter was also killed. 

1 big thing: Why Zelensky doubts he can deal with Putin

2. Zelensky to "America First": Read a history book

3. Bill Murray moment

4. Tweet du jour

5. 💬 1 for the road: Jared on Kellyanne

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 926 words ... 3½ minutes.

🗳️ Situational awareness: It's primary day tomorrow in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. 5 things to watch, from Axios' Andrew Solender.

 ⚡Breaking: The Biden administration has been quietly mediating on negotiations that, if successful, could be a first step on the road to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Axios' Barak Ravid scooped this evening. 

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1 big thing: Xi's fiery centenary

2. How others see 100 years of CCP rule

3. Putin's marathon

Bonus: Where in the World?

4. Global news roundup

5. U.K. and EU declare "sausage war" ceasefire

Illustration of a dove clutching sausage links instead of an olive branch. 

6. Florida condo collapse reverberates through Latin America

Heads-up: We're off Monday, but Dave will be back in the saddle next Thursday.

In tonight's edition, we've got the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, a Putin telethon, a respite in the Brexit sausage wars and more (1,741 words, 6.5 minutes).

Answer: Nicosia, Cyprus. Turkey is the only country in the world that recognizes the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which considers North Nicosia its capital.

Axios World: Defiant Xi challenges China's rivals

Turkey's threat to oppose Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO has massively raised the stakes of it long-simmering tensions with the West, and given Ankara new leverage to extract concessions from its own purported allies.

Why it matters: Critics have accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of employing a "hostage-taking" tactic also practiced by Hungary, which for weeks has been singlehandedly blocking the European Union from imposing an embargo on Russian oil.

The outsized influence of single-member states in the EU and NATO has drawn increased scrutiny in recent years, especially as both Hungary and Turkey have drifted toward authoritarianism and strengthened their ties with Russia.

Their resistance to two critical Western priorities risks undermining the united front that leaders like President Biden have touted as key to effectively responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Driving the news: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has said he is "very confident" all NATO allies will ultimately approve Sweden and Finland's applications, will meet on Wednesday with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.

Çavuşoğlu said Sunday that in exchange for Turkey lifting its opposition, Sweden and Finland must end their alleged support for Kurdish groups that Turkey views as terrorists and a top national security threat.

Turkey is also expected to use its leverage to seek bilateral concessions from the U.S., including speeding up the potential sale of F-16 fighter jets.

Between the liens: Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, director of the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara, told Axios that Erdoğan "saw an opportunity to extract some benefits both for Turkey and for his own political standing" ahead of a crucial election next year.

Erdoğan believes he's "more or less free to do whatever he wants," Ünlühisarcıklı said.

He argued it's hard to stand up to Erdogan on this issue, given the high stakes of Sweden and Finland's NATO applications, and the unique role Turkey is playing in Ukraine as both a mediator in peace talks and supplier of highly effective drones.

Critics, meanwhile, say the stunt could set a precedent for other NATO leaders to essentially seek bribes in moments of crisis — with some going as far as to call Turkey a "Trojan horse" within the Western alliance.

Zoom out: That label has long been used to describe Hungary's role as a spoiler within the EU.

Hungary's far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán is viewed as the most pro-Russian leader in the EU, and for weeks has used his veto to prevent the bloc from banning imports of Russian oil.

In the meantime, Orbán has used his leverage to pressure the EU to send Hungary a financial compensation package — effectively neutralizing Brussels' landmark decision this year to withhold pandemic recovery funds from Hungary over its democratic backsliding.

What they're saying: "The thing with people like Putin or Erdoğan or Orbán is they exploit when you show weakness and don't confront them," says Daniel Freund, a German member of the European Parliament.

Freund, an anti-corruption activist, has advocated for eliminating the EU's unanimity requirement for major policy decisions and moving to two-thirds "qualified-majority" voting.

"In a situation of war, in a union of 27, we cannot operate in a way that allows blackmail," Freund argued, calling the single-member veto authority "ludicrous."

State of play: EU leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, are in favor of eliminating the veto, but several smaller states have already objected (and they have vetos, too).

Strongmen spoilers threaten Western unity

Turkey's Erdoğan and Hungary's Orban accused of holding alliance hostage with their veto threats.

The president of Turkey and prime minister of Hungary are seen smiling together.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (left) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Photo: Laszlo Balogh/Getty Images

Turkey

Turkey&#x27;s threat to oppose <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Finland and Sweden" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/16/nato-expansion-ukraine-russia-putin-finland-sweden" data-vars-content-id="06906840-ad9d-4b39-9cdc-f5bd3f7a5928" data-vars-headline="Strongmen spoilers threaten Western unity" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/16/nato-expansion-ukraine-russia-putin-finland-sweden" target="_self">Finland and Sweden</a>&#x27;s accession to NATO has massively raised the stakes of it long-simmering tensions with the West, and given Ankara new leverage to extract concessions from its own purported allies.Why it matters: Critics have accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of employing a &quot;<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="hostage-taking" data-vars-click-url="https://www.rferl.org/a/lithuania-russia-oil-embargo-hostage/31852495.html" data-vars-content-id="06906840-ad9d-4b39-9cdc-f5bd3f7a5928" data-vars-headline="Strongmen spoilers threaten Western unity" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.rferl.org/a/lithuania-russia-oil-embargo-hostage/31852495.html" target="_blank">hostage-taking</a>&quot; tactic also practiced by Hungary, which for weeks has been singlehandedly blocking the European Union from imposing an embargo on Russian oil.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A White House visit by the leaders of Finland and Sweden threatened to be overshadowed Thursday by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's renewed threat to reject the Nordic countries' applications to join NATO.

Why it matters: President Biden celebrated the "historic" applications — spurred by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine — as "a victory for democracy in action." But all 30 NATO allies must agree to the enlargement of the alliance, giving Erdoğan significant leverage to extract concessions before lifting his objection.

Driving the news: Erdoğan said in a video posted to Twitter Thursday that Turkey told allies it will reject Finland and Sweden's applications over their alleged support for Kurdish militants that Ankara considers terrorists.

At a ceremony in the White House Rose Garden, meanwhile, Finland's President Sauli Niinistö and Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said they're engaged in dialogue with Turkey to address its concerns. 

"As NATO allies, we will commit to Turkey's security just as Turkey will commit to our security," Niinistö said. "We take terrorism seriously and we condemn all forms of terrorism."

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he was "confident" that an agreement could be reached, calling Turkey an "important ally" whose security concerns deserve to be taken seriously. 

Biden did not address Turkey's objections in his remarks, but hailed NATO's "open door policy" and insisted that Finland and Sweden "meet every NATO requirement and then some."

What they're saying: "Standing together today, we reject the bloody creed that 'might makes right,' and we declare a more powerful creed — 'all for one, and one for all,'" Biden declared, flanked by Niinistö and Andersson.

"Because what makes NATO strong isn't just our enormous military capacity, but our commitment to each other, to its values. NATO is an alliance of choice, not coercion," he continued.

"Finland and Sweden are seeking to join NATO because their citizens demanded it. And their elected leaders heard them. That's how it works when leaders derive their power for the consent of the government."

What to watch: Biden said his administration is already submitting reports to Congress on Finland and Sweden's NATO accession so that the Senate "can efficiently and quickly move" on ratifying their membership.

Go deeper: Why NATO formed and why Finland and Sweden want to join the alliance

Erdoğan doubles down on threat to reject Finland and Sweden's NATO bids

The leaders of Finland and Sweden pledged to address Turkey's concerns at a White House ceremony.

Biden with the leaders of Sweden and Finland

NATO

Politics & Policy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Americans that oppose supporting Ukraine "to start reading some World War II memoirs," warning in an interview with Axios' Jonathan Swan that a victorious Russia will not stop at Ukraine's borders.

Why it matters: The Biden administration has spent billions of dollars arming Ukraine against Vladimir Putin's invasion, igniting a domestic debate over whether supporting a non-NATO country on Europe's periphery should be considered a critical national interest. 

An anti-interventionist wing of the GOP, especially, is growing in size and influence — with 11 Senate Republicans voting against last week's $40 billion aid package for Ukraine.

Some lawmakers have also questioned whether the growing U.S. role in the war risks a direct confrontation with Russia, a nuclear power.

What they're saying: Interviewing Zelensky at Ukraine House Davos on Monday, Swan asked the Ukrainian president what he would say to Americans who believe this is "Europe's problem" and do not believe Ukraine's sovereignty is worth the potential risk and cost to the U.S.

The history of World War II shows "what would have happened" if the U.S did not come to Europe's defense, Zelensky responded. 

"Ukraine is bordering with the Russian Federation, and we are the ones being attacked. If we fall, if we don't hold the line, Russia will proceed and attack the Baltic states" — forcing the U.S. to deploy troops to defend a NATO ally, Zelensky argued.

"So what can I say to the people who think that this is just for Europe, this is far away, this is not in our backyard? This is somewhere in the world, but the world is much smaller than we think."

The big picture: Zelensky acknowledged there's a risk in the modern world of social media that people will become numb to the suffering in Ukraine and stop paying attention.

"People want a new picture, a new image. The same people, the same victims, the same Ukraine," Zelensky said, wearing his signature dark military fatigues as he beamed into Davos. 

"Our task is for the world not to get tired of war and supporting Ukraine because we are fighting for the values which make people's livelihoods and serves as the oxygen they breath."

Zoom in: Addressing how the war may end, Zelensky said it's becoming increasingly difficult to envision a peace agreement as more evidence of Russian atrocities emerges.

Zelensky said he did not want to rule out a meeting with Putin, given that the Russian president alone will be responsible for giving the order to end the war. 

But he contended the best way to achieve that outcome is to continue arming Ukraine with heavy weaponry, which will allow Ukrainian forces to "fight from a distance" and maintain pressure "until the point when Russia understands that there's no other way out than restoring peace."

Between the lines: Zelensky was asked about a recent interview Ukraine's military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov gave to the Wall Street Journal, in which he said Ukraine would continue fighting until Russian forces were evicted from Crimea and areas of the eastern Donbas region occupied since 2014. 

Zelensky dodged the question several times — saying with a grin, "I like Gen. Budanov" — before acknowledging that taking back that territory would likely result in hundreds of thousands of military casualties on both sides.

Praising Budanov's "courage" and "confidence," Zelensky concluded his answer: "The price matters. Everything has its price."

Zelensky calls it "very difficult" to arrange meeting with Putin

Zelensky compares Russian assassination attempts to "Groundhog Day"

Zelensky says Ukraine falling would put American lives at risk

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout. 

Watch Volodymyr Zelensky's full interview at Davos with Jonathan Swan

The history of World War II shows "what would have happened" if the U.S did not come to Europe's defense, he said.

Volodymyr Zelensky

Russia

Video source: Ukraine House Davos.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Americans that oppose supporting Ukraine &quot;to start reading some World War II memoirs,&quot; warning in an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="interview" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/23/zelensky" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/23/zelensky" target="_self">interview</a> with Axios&#x27; Jonathan Swan that a victorious Russia will not stop at Ukraine&#x27;s borders.Why it matters: The Biden administration has spent billions of dollars arming Ukraine against Vladimir Putin&#x27;s invasion, igniting a domestic debate over whether supporting a non-NATO country on Europe&#x27;s periphery should be considered a critical national interest.

Data: Global Firepower Index; Table: Axios Visuals

Sweden and Finland's membership in NATO would integrate two of Europe's most highly capable and modern militaries right on Russia's doorstep, according to rankings and data from the Global Firepower Index.

Why it matters: Sweden and Finland are seeking to join to obtain security guarantees from the world's most powerful military alliance. But experts say they wouldn't be Article 5 freeloaders.

The Nordic nations will bring unique capabilities to an especially vulnerable Baltic region, where NATO has struggled to project power.

By the numbers: Sweden's defense budget for 2022 is estimated to total $8.6 billion, while Finland's is $6.3 billion, according to the Global Firepower Index.

Both Sweden and Finland have announced plans to dramatically boost their military spending in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, after years of failing to reach the 2%-of-GDP threshold NATO seeks from all its members.

The number of active military personnel in the Finnish Defence Forces is a modest 23,000, but the country boasts a wartime strength of 280,000 because of its massive conscription system.

A total of 900,000 Finnish reservists can be mobilized — a product of the deep-seated focus on security in a country that shares an 800-mile border with Russia, and was twice invaded in the 20th century.

Between the lines: In addition to the strength of their navies and air force, Finland and Sweden will bring unique intelligence capabilities to NATO specifically tailored to the threat posed by their Russian neighbors.

The Swedish military's control over the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea would also provide NATO with a crucial strategic advantage in the event of a regional conflict with Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested Sweden and Finland's NATO membership will not pose a threat to his country unless they establish NATO bases and infrastructure.

Other Kremlin officials and propagandists, though, have warned of "far-reaching consequences."

What they're saying: "When you have military like ours, you really don't have that much to worry about. And Russia knows that," Alexander Stubb, Finland's former prime minister, told Axios about the Kremlin's saber-rattling.

What to watch: With NATO allies busy wrangling Turkey into dropping its opposition to Sweden and Finland's membership, President Biden will welcome the leaders of the two Scandinavian countries to the White House on Thursday.

Finland and Sweden bring military might to NATO

The Nordic nations will bring unique capabilities to the Baltic region, where NATO has struggled to project power.

Swedish Home Guard soldiers take part in a field exercise on May 17, 2022.

Sweden and Finland&#x27;s membership in NATO would integrate two of Europe&#x27;s most highly capable and modern militaries right on Russia&#x27;s doorstep, according to rankings and data from the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Global Firepower Index" data-vars-click-url="https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php" target="_blank">Global Firepower Index</a>.Why it matters: Sweden and Finland are seeking to join to obtain security guarantees from the world&#x27;s most powerful military alliance. But experts say they wouldn&#x27;t be Article 5 freeloaders.

The parents of a U.S. Navy officer involved in a fatal car crash in Japan are urging the U.S. government to raise concerns about his prosecution with Japanese officials, telling Axios that a "misunderstanding" led to a judge sentencing their son to three years in prison.

What happened: Lt. Ridge Alkonis, 34, was driving his family back from a day trip to Mt. Fuji on May 29, 2021, when he suddenly lost consciousness behind the wheel — crashing into several parked vehicles and pedestrians. Two Japanese citizens later died from their injuries.

Alkonis's family says he was arrested by Japanese authorities and placed in solitary confinement for 26 days without access to a lawyer or medical examiner.

He was accused of driving while knowingly fatigued and indicted on charges of "negligent driving resulting in death and injury."

After his release on bail, a neurologist cited "acute mountain sickness" as the reason for Alkonis's sudden loss of conscious.

The trial judge refused to consider the medical episode or the settlement Alkonis paid to the victims' family — the largest private settlement by a U.S. service member in Japan's history — as mitigating factors.

"It is unlikely that the defendant suffered serious altitude sickness at the time," the judge said, pointing to initial testimony in which Alkonis testified he felt fine when he left Mt. Fuji. 

Alkonis, his family and his lawyer were expecting a three-year suspended sentence, which they argue is the norm in Japan's legal system for cases like this.

What they're saying: "I was there the night that they pronounced the three-year sentence. It was a shock to virtually everybody. We had his bags packed, the kids bags were packed, he was coming home. We knew it. Then we got the phone call that he wasn't," Alkonis's mother, Suzi, told Axios in an interview.

"If you were to have a heart attack or stroke or some other medical emergency that causes an accident, it wouldn't be a criminal offense here. And so to be in this situation is just — it's beyond painful," she added.

The Alkonises stressed that they and their son — who has "devoted his life to serving the people of Japan" — feel immense pain for the families of the victims: an elderly Japanese woman and her son-in-law.

Their inability to reach out due to legal constraints "just rips you apart," said Alkonis's father, Derek. "It's got this power to just destroy you ... and creates a lot of room for misunderstanding and misinterpretation."

"We don't want to be disrespectful to that family or to that country. We just want things to be fair," Suzi Alkonis added.

Between the lines: The Alkonises are represented by Jonathan Franks, who also serves as the spokesman for the family of former U.S. Marine and wrongful detainee Trevor Reed.

Reed was released from a Russian prison last month in a prisoner exchange after his parents — with the help of Franks — secured a meeting with President Biden.

The Alkonis family said they have written "thousands" of letters, including to President Biden and Vice President Harris, asking U.S. and Japanese officials for help with the situation.

What to watch: Franks told Axios he hopes Biden will raise Alkonis's treatment in his meetings with Japan's prime minister and other officials in Tokyo this week, ahead of the Navy officer's appeals hearing on June 8.

Parents of Navy officer sentenced in Japan detail "tragic" accident

Lt. Ridge Alkonis lost consciousness behind the wheel and caused a crash that left two dead.

Japan

The parents of a U.S. Navy officer involved in a fatal car crash in Japan are urging the U.S. government to raise concerns about his prosecution with Japanese officials, telling Axios that a &quot;misunderstanding&quot; led to a judge sentencing their son to three years in prison.What happened: Lt. Ridge Alkonis, 34, was driving his family back from a day trip to Mt. Fuji on May 29, 2021, when he suddenly lost consciousness behind the wheel — crashing into several parked vehicles and pedestrians. Two Japanese citizens later died from their injuries.

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Watch Volodymyr Zelensky's full interview at Davos with Jonathan Swan

Parents of Navy officer sentenced in Japan detail "tragic" accident

Erdoğan doubles down on threat to reject Finland and Sweden's NATO bids

Finland and Sweden bring military might to NATO

Strongmen spoilers threaten Western unity

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