1 big thing — Scoop: Manchin's new '24 hint

2. ⚖️ Indictment alleges three Santos schemes

3. 💰 Moderates eye "low-hanging fruit" on debt ceiling

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4. 🐘 Republicans shrug after Trump verdict

5. 🏛️ Parting shot

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📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

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1 big thing: Biden's new budget trap

2. ⛰️ GOP closes in on Montana recruit for Senate

3. 🚓 Republicans prep more intervention in D.C.  

4. 👀 Ex-Trump official jumps ship for DeSantis

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 983 words ... 3.5 minutes.

🚨 Breaking: Manhattan's district attorney has offered former President Trump the chance to testify next week in the investigation of hush money payments to Stormy Daniels — signaling criminal charges are likely, the N.Y. Times reports.

📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Biden makes peace with "Bidenomics"

2. 🔎 Trump's shifting defenses

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3. 📊 Polls du jour: Swing-state split

4. 💣 GOP's ugly online primary

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5. 🇷🇺 Parting shot

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⚡ Situational awareness: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told Fox News he would be in favor of eliminating the departments of Education, Commerce and Energy as well as the IRS if elected president.

1 big thing: Jordan under fire

2. 🐘 The incredible shrinking anti-Trump lane

Larry Hogan in front of a picture of Trump

3. 🇹🇼 McCarthy's Taiwan optics

4. ⚖️ By the numbers: 1,000 Jan. 6 arrests

5. Fetterman on the mend

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,026 words ... 4 minutes.

📅 Join Axios’ Courtenay Brown, Sophia Cai and Eleanor Hawkins on Wednesday at 8am ET for an International Women's Day event with Sen. Mazie K. Hirono (D-Hawaii), German ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber, and PBS NewsHour co-anchor Amna Nawaz. Register here to attend in person in D.C.

📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Brad Bonhall.

1 big thing: Zients' zen White House

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2. 🔎 Poll du jour: Indictment skeptics

3. ⚡ Senate's Wednesday frenzy

4. 🤝 Charted: Partisan priorities

5. ❤️ Pic du jour 

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 971 words ... 3.5 minutes.

🇨🇳 Situational awareness: China's top diplomat in D.C. warned that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's stops in the U.S. — where she will meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — "could lead to serious, serious, serious confrontation in the U.S.-China relationship."

National

Some big-money GOP donors are hoping that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin will jump into the presidential race as a last-ditch Trump alternative — but a shutdown of the federal government could complicate any such plans.

Why it matters: Youngkin hasn't ruled out a presidential run, but his first priority is leading Republicans to win control of Virginia's legislature this November.

That could make things easier for his conservative agenda and boost his credentials as a national candidate.

Yes, but: A shutdown forced by Republicans in Congress would make that scenario more difficult for Youngkin — and send economic ripples through politically divided Virginia.

The state is home to more than 140,000 federal workers — half of them in Northern Virginia, just outside D.C. — plus thousands more who do business with the government.

Virginia Republicans are fretting about voters taking out their anger on the GOP in November's state elections if there's a shutdown.

"In these NoVa districts, a shutdown is just not helpful," said former U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.). "We saw that in the government shutdown in 2013 — it killed Ken Cuccinelli," Davis said, referring to the GOP candidate for Virginia governor who lost by 2.6 percentage points that year.

"Republicans in Congress are making it harder for Republicans in Virginia to win," said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at University of Mary Washington. "Taking away someone's paycheck, even temporarily, is a major source of anxiety."

The big picture: Youngkin, a former college basketball player and private equity executive, made national headlines in 2021 when he upset former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in a state Joe Biden had won by 10 points a year earlier.

Youngkin is widely viewed as a potential presidential candidate — and hasn't exactly tamped down speculation about that.

"There might be others," Youngkin said at an Economic Club of Washington event Tuesday, when asked whether he plans to run for another public office. 

But in Virginia, Youngkin has been blocked from enacting much of his agenda by Virginia's Senate, which Democrats control 22-18.

Controlling both chambers would give him a chance to pass legislation — including a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions —  that could be a springboard for a potential GOP presidential run.

Driving the news: Youngkin has been barnstorming the state, urging voters to flip the state Senate and preserve Republicans' narrow edge in the House of Delegates.

His political action committee raised a record $5.75 million last quarter and Republicans — responding to how abortion restrictions haven't played well for them in recent elections — are going on offense, accusing Democrats of favoring "no limits" on abortions.

Youngkin also wants to cut taxes and give parents more say in what's taught in public schools.

The intrigue: Major GOP donors have made overtures to Youngkin and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp about jumping into the presidential race this cycle, hoping to keep former President Trump from winning the GOP nomination again.

It's possible for Youngkin to get in the race after Virginia's Nov. 7 elections, though it would mean missing the filing deadlines for early presidential contests in states such as Nevada and South Carolina.

But if Virginia voters don't give his party a mandate in November, talk of him as a presidential contender in 2024 is likely to fade.

What they're saying: Democrats are salivating at the prospect of blaming a shutdown on Republicans.

"If I were Glenn Youngkin, I'd be on the phone saying, 'Make a deal,' because it's really clear that this is a Republican shutdown," said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) "It'll be terrible, and terrible for them."

But Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) — who's among the hardline conservatives in the House who could force a shutdown — isn't convinced that voters will punish state legislative candidates if there is a shutdown.

"Governor Youngkin is doing a great job and is off to a great start," Good said. "Virginians recognize that and are going to respond by giving him a working majority" in the legislature.

Youngkin, meanwhile, is watching Congress with interest.

"Let's just see how these next nine days play out," he said last Thursday, referring to the federal government's funding deadline this weekend to avoid a shutdown.

"The state's in good shape. We'll be fine."

Andrew Solender contributed to this story.

Youngkin's nightmare: A GOP-led government shutdown

A shutdown would make governing — and a potential run for president — difficult for the Virginia governor.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is shown wearing a blue suit and a green tie.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin at an Economic Club of Washington event Tuesday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Government shutdown

Politics & Policy

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein's death presents the state's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, with a complicated political problem — and an opportunity.

Why it matters: Newsom is widely expected to use the appointment of Feinstein's replacement to bolster his political standing for a potential presidential run at some point, according to California political advisers.

Feinstein, 90, a Democratic stalwart who died late Thursday after more than 30 years in the Senate, had been dealing with health issues when she announced in February that she wouldn't seek re-election in 2024. 

Newsom said afterward that he'd appoint a Black woman to serve out Feinstein's term if she had to resign before it expired in January 2025, when the new Congress will convene.

Zoom in: One option would be Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus who has been in Congress for 25 years. 

But Lee is among three Democratic members of Congress battling for the Senate seat in a primary that's less than six months away — and Newsom has said it would be unfair to appoint anyone running in the primary. 

That has put a spotlight on Shirley Weber, California's secretary of state, as a potentially safer choice for Newsom: She's African American but her appointment wouldn't impact the Democratic primary.

Flashback: After then-Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) resigned her seat to become vice president in 2021, it took Newsom five weeks to settle on Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), who was elected to a full six-year term last year.

The big picture: With a government shutdown looming and Senate Democrats bracing for a negotiation with House Republicans over how to fund the government, Democrats might need every vote they can get in the politically divided Senate.

Newsom will be under pressure to move quickly with the appointment, but because Feinstein's deteriorating health had raised questions about whether she should resign, he's had some time to think about possible replacements.

The top two finishers in California's March 5 primary will advance to the general election in November.

Besides Lee, California Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter are running in one of the most-watched Senate races of the 2024 cycle.

In California's open primary, the top two vote-getters could be Democrats — raising the possibility that the party's second choice could win in the general election if Republican voters get behind that candidate in big numbers.

The intrigue: Newsom has vowed not to challenge President Biden in 2024, but he clearly has presidential ambitions and is positioning himself for a national campaign down the line.

That could set up a clash with someone he grew up with in Democratic politics in Northern California: Kamala Harris.

He appeared to relish appearing at the GOP debate this week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, needling the performance of the Republicans on stage. He pronounced the whole affair "JV, it's XFL, it's veep-stakes, maybe."

What they're saying: For now, Newsom is focusing on praising the life and legacy of Feinstein, a mentor.

"She was a political giant, whose tenacity was matched by her grace," he said in a statement. "She broke down barriers and glass ceilings, but never lost her belief in the spirit of political cooperation."

What we're hearing: If Newsom decides to break his pledge to appoint a Black woman, sources say that other options would include former Stockton, Calif., Mayor Michael Tubbs, currently a special adviser to Newsom for economic mobility.

Newsom's complicated choice in replacing Feinstein

Newsom is expected to use the appointment of Feinstein's replacement to bolster his political standing for a potential presidential run.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is interviewed at the GOP presidential debate Wednesday in Simi Valley, Calif. Photo: Gilbert Flores/Variety via Getty Images

Senate

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="death" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/29/dianne-feinstein-dies-90-senator" data-vars-content-id="3dbb7b3f-effa-4b76-bd69-f7cf8ce7532a" data-vars-headline="Newsom&#x27;s complicated choice in replacing Feinstein" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/29/dianne-feinstein-dies-90-senator" target="_self">death</a> presents the state&#x27;s Democratic governor, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Gavin Newsom" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/27/californias-newsom-signs-guns-tax-weapons-safety-laws" data-vars-content-id="3dbb7b3f-effa-4b76-bd69-f7cf8ce7532a" data-vars-headline="Newsom&#x27;s complicated choice in replacing Feinstein" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/27/californias-newsom-signs-guns-tax-weapons-safety-laws" target="_self">Gavin Newsom</a>, with a complicated political problem — and an opportunity.Why it matters: Newsom is widely expected to use the appointment of Feinstein&#x27;s replacement to bolster his political standing for a potential presidential run at some point, according to California political advisers.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is counting on winning more Republicans than Democrats in a likely re-election bid next year — but sees the vast majority of her support coming from independents, according to a new pitch to donors.

Why it matters: Team Sinema's bold strategy to prevail in a potential three-way race is the clearest indication yet that she plans to run for re-election in 2024.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) launched his campaign earlier this year, while Kari Lake, the GOP's failed candidate for Arizona governor in 2022, is eyeing an October launch.

"If the parties nominate extremists, as expected, Kyrsten will win a majority of IND and at least a third of REP and a percentage of DEM voters — making her the first Independent to win a three-way statewide race in American history," Sinema's team wrote in a two-page pitch first reported by NBC News.

Between the lines: Sinema's perceived base of support — independents — explains much of her voting behavior since she won in 2018.

It also offers a glimpse of how she'll vote for the next 14 months.

Since 2018, Sinema has supported former President Trump's nominee for attorney general, Bill Barr, railed against changing the Senate filibuster rules, helped pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and pared down President Biden's initial $3.5 trillion Build Back Better proposal.

Along the way, she has earned the enmity of progressives.

Late last year, Sinema formalized her new centrist identity by declaring herself an independent, although she formally caucuses with the Democrats.

By the numbers: In a potential 2024 contest, Sinema is expecting to claim  between 25%-35% of Republicans and only 10-20% of the Democrats.

But it's among independent voters, who represent more than a third of the Arizona electorate, where Sinema hopes to run up the score — eyeing 60%-70% of the vote.

Reality check: Sinema's path is a narrow one, given her low approval rating across both parties and the high support she needs from independents, which typically includes closeted partisans.

Flashback: In 2018, Sinema won 12% of GOP voters in her 50%-47.6% victory over Republican Martha McSally, according to exit polls.

Sinema captured 97% percent of the Democratic vote and 50% of independents.

What we're watching: If Sinema officially enters the race, it will be one of the most expensive — and dynamic — races in the country.

Gallego raised more than Sinema in the second quarter, hauling in $3.1 million compared to the incumbent senator's $1.7 million. But Sinema has almost $11 million cash-on-hand, compared to $3.8 for Gallego.

Lake, who has teased a run but has yet to make an official announcement, has not filed any FEC disclosure reports.

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Kyrsten Sinema betting big on independent vote, donor pitch shows

The Arizona senator sees the vast majority of her support coming from independents.

Kyrsten Sinema

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is counting on winning more Republicans than Democrats in a likely re-election bid next year — but sees the vast majority of her support coming from independents, according to a new pitch to donors.Why it matters: Team Sinema&#x27;s bold strategy to prevail in a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="potential three-way race" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/08/kari-lake-arizona-senate-race-campaign-election" data-vars-content-id="8f8e61e6-6b82-4f1c-986f-6a58c9452b3f" data-vars-headline="Kyrsten Sinema betting big on independent vote, donor pitch shows" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/08/kari-lake-arizona-senate-race-campaign-election" target="_self">potential three-way race</a> is the clearest indication yet that she plans to run for re-election in 2024.

Macro

Axios Macro

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will use improved communications with Beijing to discuss "contentious" issues, gain new insight into China's economy — and learn how leaders there plan to respond to issues, she tells Axios.

Why it matters: The Biden administration is taking a series of steps to try to repair relations with China's government, ahead of a potential meeting between President Biden and China's president, Xi Jinping, later this fall.

At the same time, top Treasury officials want a better understanding of the fundamentals — and potential risks — in China's economy, the world's second-largest behind that of the U.S.

"We want an opportunity to be able to ... pick up the phone and ask questions when issues arise that we need to understand — and vice versa," Yellen said. "It will provide some opportunity to discuss contentious topics."

Yellen added that the aim is to "deepen our understanding of what's happening in [China's] property sector, the general economic problems that they face and the policy approaches that they're taking."

Driving the news: The nations' governments announced two new U.S.-China working groups working groups last week.

The two sides also are discussing a potential U.S visit by Xi's top economic adviser, Vice Premier He Lifeng, to help pave the way for a Biden-Xi meeting at the Asia Pacific Economic Forum in San Francisco in November, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Biden administration hasn't officially announced Xi's participation, but a State Department spokesperson said, "There's no substitute for leader-to-leader communication."

Zoom out: The Chinese economy faces substantial challenges, which has scary implications for global growth.

Its property market is in a free fall, and the construction giant Evergrande defaulted on $300 billion in liabilities in 2021.

China's youth unemployment rate is above 20% — the government announced in August that it would stop releasing monthly data on it.

Zoom in: For at least 20 years, Democratic and Republican administrations have sought to formalize communications with their Chinese counterparts to manage global risks between the world's two biggest economies.

That approach, the so-called Strategic and Economic Dialogue, led to big formal meetings where a range of topics were discussed. 

The new working groups are designed to discuss economic issues at a more technical level — and more frequently.

The big picture: U.S.-China relations soured in Biden's first two years and there were few high-level meetings, either at the economic or strategic level.

In their first face-to-face meeting as presidents in November of 2022, Biden and Xi sought to improve the countries' relationship, with plans for a series of Cabinet -level visits.

Yellen, meeting her Chinese counterpart in Zurich in January, announced plans to visit Beijing in the "near future."

But her trip, along with one by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, was postponed, after a Chinese spy balloon drifted above middle America.

What we're watching: The two sides still haven't restored military-to-military communication, which was a key goal for Blinken when he visited in June.

Yellen hopes to receive feedback from the Chinese on Biden's executive order to restrict outbound investments into China's semiconductor, artificial intelligence and quantum computing industries.

Scoop: Yellen's plan for a breakthrough with China

Improved communications to allow discussions of "contentious" issues and how Chinese leaders are dealing with them.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks in McLean, Va., in August.

China foreign policy

Treasury Secretary <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Janet Yellen" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/30/janet-yellen-bidenomics-economic-case" data-vars-content-id="a3c5e363-111b-4e4c-b3cc-9926d51e95f3" data-vars-headline="Scoop: Yellen&#x27;s plan for a breakthrough with China" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/30/janet-yellen-bidenomics-economic-case" target="_self">Janet Yellen</a> will use improved communications with Beijing to discuss &quot;contentious&quot; issues, gain new insight into China&#x27;s economy — and learn how leaders there plan to respond to issues, she tells Axios.Why it matters: The Biden administration is taking a series of steps to try to repair relations with China&#x27;s government, ahead of a potential meeting between President Biden and China&#x27;s president, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Xi Jinping" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/xi-jinping-national-security-ousted-officials" data-vars-content-id="a3c5e363-111b-4e4c-b3cc-9926d51e95f3" data-vars-headline="Scoop: Yellen&#x27;s plan for a breakthrough with China" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/xi-jinping-national-security-ousted-officials" target="_self">Xi Jinping</a>, later this fall.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is pumping another $1 million into Virginia's high-stakes legislative elections this fall, doubling its commitment for the year, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: For Democrats, abortion is on the ballot in Virginia's off-year election, when all 140 seats are up in the state House and Senate.

They want to prevent Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin from winning a majority in Virginia's General Assembly — deny him the ability to enact new abortion restrictions.

For Youngkin, the Nov. 7 election is an opportunity to demonstrate that his brand of conservatism — which includes a plan for a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions — can appeal to suburban voters in a purple state.

A clear victory for Republicans would revive talk about Youngkin's presidential prospects, although the filing deadlines for some of the GOP's early primaries and caucuses in 2024 will have passed by Election Day 2023.

Driving the news: The DLCC's $1 million investment has been transferred to the state's House and Senate campaign committees. Both sides are focused on 15 to 20 races likely to determine control of Virginia's General Assembly.

"It is the first time a legislature is on the ballot post-Dobbs," DLCC president Heather Williams said, referring to the Supreme Court decision that overruled Roe v. Wade. "The stakes could not be clearer: Does Virginia lose access to abortion, or not?"

"If Youngkin is delivered a trifecta (control of the House, Senate and executive)," Virginia Republicans "will deliver an abortion ban," Williams said.

"Elections are won or lost on the doors," she added, suggesting that most of the DLCC's investment will go toward door-knocking and get-out-the-vote efforts.

The other side: Youngkin's political action committee raised a record $5.75 million last quarter and Virginia Republican candidates are running ads accusing Democrats of favoring "no limits" on abortions.

Nationally, Republicans have ample evidence that voters in swing states, and even deep red ones, are opposed to a total ban on abortion — which states can impose in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health.

The big picture: The 11th-hour deal to avert a government shutdown allows Republicans to stay focused on their message and not have to explain to Virginia's 140,000 federal workers why their paychecks are delayed.

Republicans and Democrats both acknowledge that this year's election in Virginia, with legislative districts drawn by a special master and approved by the state Supreme Court, is a jump ball.

Democrats hold a 22-18 advantage in the Senate. Republicans have a 49-46 advantage in the House of Delegates, with five vacancies.

Early voting began Sept. 22, with Youngkin borrowing a page from Democrats in trying to persuade supporters to cast their ballots before Election Day.

Go deeper: Last month, President Biden directed the Democratic National Committee to transfer $1.2 million to Virginia's Democratic Party to use in the legislative races, bringing the DNC's total to $1.5 million.

That's more than 15 times what the DNC spent in Virginia 2019, the last time all the seats in Virginia's legislature were up for election, the Washington Post notes.

the Supreme Court decision that overruled Roe v. Wade

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Dems flood Virginia with cash ahead of off-year elections

Abortion is on the ballot for Democrats in Virginia, and beyond.

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Virginia Governor Glen Youngkin addresses the Economic Club of Washington's luncheon event at the Marriott Marquis on September 26, 2023 in Washington, DC.  (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Abortion

Policymaking

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is pumping another $1 million into Virginia&#x27;s high-stakes legislative elections this fall, doubling its commitment for the year, Axios has learned.Why it matters: For Democrats, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="abortion is on the ballot" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/22/abortion-virginia-elections-2024" data-vars-content-id="da2cdd97-8dea-4f62-bd50-529ecc9f02d6" data-vars-headline="Dems flood Virginia with cash ahead of off-year elections" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/22/abortion-virginia-elections-2024" target="_self">abortion is on the ballot</a> in Virginia&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="off-year election" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/richmond/2023/09/25/2023-election-virginia-how-to-vote" data-vars-content-id="da2cdd97-8dea-4f62-bd50-529ecc9f02d6" data-vars-headline="Dems flood Virginia with cash ahead of off-year elections" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/richmond/2023/09/25/2023-election-virginia-how-to-vote" target="_self">off-year election</a>, when all 140 seats are up in the state House and Senate.

Hans Nichols

Stories

Dems flood Virginia with cash ahead of off-year elections

Newsom's complicated choice in replacing Feinstein

Scoop: Yellen's plan for a breakthrough with China

Youngkin's nightmare: A GOP-led government shutdown

Kyrsten Sinema betting big on independent vote, donor pitch shows

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