Axios

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy won his re-election bid Wednesday, defeating Republican challenger and former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli in a razor-thin race that sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party, according to AP.

Why it matters: While Murphy inched out a win in a state President Biden won by almost 16 points in 2020, the close race sends a warning to Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

Senate Republicans filibustered the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act on Wednesday, denying it the 60 votes needed to advance the bill and start debate.

Why it matters: The voting rights bill narrowly passed the House in August, with no Republican support. The filibuster dealt a devasting blow to Democrats who have struggled to combat a wave of new voting restrictions in Republican-controlled states.

Republican Jason Miyares has defeated incumbent Mark Herring and will become the first Latino attorney general in Virginia's history, and the first Latino to win a statewide race, per AP.

Why it matters: Miyares' victory comes as part of a sweep for Republicans in Virginia. After having not won a statewide race since 2009, the GOP won all three executive positions up for grabs in 2021.

President Biden said Thursday that the Democratic Party needs to "produce for the American people" if it wants to avoid defeats like Tuesday's loss in Virginia.

Why it matters: Biden's recent dip in popularity — in part due to stalled legislation and the U.S.'s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan — may have contributed to Republican Glenn Youngkin's election as Virginia's next governor, and other disappointing results in Tuesday's off-year elections.

The White House is trying to address voter concerns about its proposed $1.75 trillion social safety net expansion with a spreadsheet — obtained by Axios — showing broad revenue categories that fully cover the cost of the measure.

Why it matters: Republicans argued their victories in elections on Tuesday were partly driven by voter concern about big spending by Democrats. The spreadsheet circulating Wednesday offers a direct rebuttal to that concern, as Democrats try to regain their balance heading into next year’s midterms.

Three Virginia Republican candidates who won their Virginia State House elections attended the Jan. 6th "Stop the Steal" event that led to rioters storming the U.S. Capitol, the Associated Press reports.

The big picture: At least 13 Republicans who ran for office Tuesday participated in the "Stop the Steal" rally, per Buzzfeed News.

The Air Force said Wednesday that nearly 97% of its approximately 326,000 active duty service members have complied with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's mandate and have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine before the branch's Nov. 2 deadline.

Why it matters: Around 8,500 active members missed the deadline. Many of them have filed for medical exemptions and religious accommodations, which are being reviewed by the department.

The Biden administration is slowly ratcheting up its diplomatic pressure on Iran ahead of a potential resumption of the nuclear talks.

Why it matters: After months of contemplating how to respond to Iran's foot-dragging, with talks now frozen since June, the Biden administration in recent days started taking steps that some of its European allies, Israel and the Gulf states were waiting for.

The Biden administration has asked the Israeli government to use its close relations with Sudan’s coup leader and de facto president, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to urge the military to restore the civilian government.

Why it matters: Burhan has been central to the Israel-Sudan normalization process over the last two years. He and other Sudanese generals have been coordinating with contacts in the Israeli national security council and Mossad intelligence agency.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted Wednesday to send President Biden's nomination of former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel as U.S. ambassador to Japan to the full Senate for a confirmation vote.

Why it matters: Two Democrats on the committee, Sens. Jeff Merkley (Ore.) and Edward Markey (Mass.), voted against Emanuel's nomination over his handling of the 2014 police shooting of Laquan McDonald during his tenure as the city's mayor.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is introducing legislation barring foreign nationals from financing U.S. referendum campaigns, after Axios revealed federal regulators recently okayed the practice.

Why it matters: Gillibrand's bill would close what good government advocates call a glaring loophole in federal election laws allowing foreign nationals to bankroll efforts to reshape state and local laws.

Winsome Sears (R) on Wednesday was elected lieutenant governor of Virginia, becoming the first woman of color to hold the position.

Why it matters: Sears defeated Democrat Hala Ayala and will serve a crucial role as the tie-breaking vote as president of the state Senate, AP reports.

House Democratic leaders say they're undeterred by a poor showing in Tuesday’s elections, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announcing steps to advance President Biden's $1.75 trillion social spending package.

Driving the news: Pelosi announced in a letter to House Democrats new text for the bill, which will be presented to the House Rules Committee on Wednesday, a step toward an eventual vote in the House. She also said it will include a provision for paid family leave.

Glenn Youngkin will be the next governor of Virginia, after topping Democratic rival Terry McAuliffe in an election that many view as a purple proxy for November 2022.

Why it matters: It's a big win for private equity, often viewed as ballot box poison, given that Youngkin previously served as co-CEO of The Carlyle Group.

Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor's race, AP called, an upset that serves as a major warning sign for Democrats heading into the 2022 midterms.

Why it matters: Youngkin's win could foreshadow the outsized role that debates over schools may play next year and reflects GOP voters' motivation around culture wars, Democrats' enthusiasm gap and independents' resistance to the leftward shift of the party.

GLASGOW, Scotland — John Kerry, in a quick aside with a few reporters here, offered the glass-half-full take on why a bunch of voluntary pledges to ward off climate change catastrophe is good reason for real hope.

Driving the news: The U.S. special climate envoy, moments after 100+ nations agreed to steeply reduce the potent planet-warming gas methane, was asked about the absence of ways to enforce it.

One glaring hole in Democrats' drug pricing outline: It says that drug companies that refuse to negotiate with Medicare will be subject to an excise tax. But they don't say what that tax will be.

Why it matters: If the penalty for refusing to negotiate isn't large enough, drugmakers simply won't comply, undermining the entire concept.

Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) will introduce a resolution on Wednesday calling on the Pentagon to release a report on its annual greenhouse gas emissions, after the agency skipped a July 1 deadline set out in an annual defense spending bill.

Why it matters: The Pentagon has long sounded alarms about climate change posing a national security threat, including in a dire risk assessment released last month. Yet the U.S. military itself remains a massive consumer of fossil fuels — and a larger source of greenhouse gases than many nations.

From Virginia to New Jersey to Minnesota, voters in yesterday's off-year elections sent Democrats a warning for 2022: There could be a massive backlash to perceptions that progressives are pulling the party too far left.

Why it matters: Now the finger-pointing begins. President Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer can use the wake-up call to try to force a reset, starting with swift passage of a long-stalled $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal.

The pharmaceutical industry is voicing opposition to the latest drug pricing deal.

Yes, but: The details matter. And the details as they stand suggest drug companies would still retain the power to set prices, and most drugs wouldn't be subject to government price negotiations.

Democrats have agreed on a top-level deal that would allow Medicare to negotiate the prices of some drugs. But moderates and pharma allies successfully took some of the bite out of the party's preferred approach.

Why it matters: If the deal ultimately becomes law, Democrats will be able to claim victory on what's been a major priority for years, and many Americans struggling to afford their medication would receive relief.

Progressive Michelle Wu defeated Annissa Essaibi-George to win Boston's race for mayor on Tuesday, becoming the first woman and Asian American elected to the office in Boston's nearly 200-year history.

Why it matters: The majority of Boston's residents today are people of color and they are flexing their political muscles as they are in other parts of the country.

Democrat Eric Adams won New York City's mayoral race on Tuesday, defeating Republican Curtis Sliwa, AP reports.

Why it matters: Adams, a retired NYPD captain, was the clear favorite going into Tuesday's election. He will be the second Black mayor in the city's history.

Ethiopia declared a state of emergency on Tuesday as rival forces from the northern region of Tigray move toward the capital, per AP.

Why it matters: It's the latest escalation of a yearlong civil war that threatens to tear apart Africa's second-most populous country and has killed thousands of citizens.

Here's one potential reason why the GOP elevates so-called culture wars in elections: Republicans and white Christians largely think things were better for Americans in the 1950s than now.

Driving the news: New data from a wide-ranging report released by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) and Brookings Institution gives insight into the country's partisan fault lines around identity and culture.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has already been fined a quarter of her congressional salary for not wearing a mask on the House floor, yet she says that pales in comparison to the price paid by other public employees.

Why it matters: Republicans have defied a slate of measures put in place by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to mitigate the spread of coronavirus and bolster security following the Jan. 6 attack. And Greene has the personal wealth to withstand fines aimed at enforcing them.

This White House's buttoned-up communications operation still has one big leak: President Biden.

Driving the news: On Tuesday, on the world stage in Glasgow, Scotland, he bluntly chastised Russia and China for skipping the COP26 climate change conference. It wasn't an isolated instance.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) is privately questioning a proposed fee on methane emissions targeting oil and gas companies, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Sinema’s potential opposition will aggravate environmental groups, as well as lawmakers like Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.). Both have been fighting to include a fee in President Biden’s $1.75 trillion climate and social spending package.