1 big thing: New insights on changing weather risks

Computer model projection of high temperatures on May 19, 2022 across South Asia.

2. Commodity surge could slow energy transition

3. Report: U.S. plots moves against Putin's crude

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Bonus European energy notes: coal and wind

4. Multi-state "critical" fire weather risk today

5. White House faces growing pressure on solar

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🕺🏽Happy Thursday! The dance emoji arrived early because the Axios staff is at our first in-person retreat since the pandemic began.

👍 We still have plenty of good stuff today with a Smart Brevity count of 1,211 words, 4.5 minutes. 

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Axios Generate

1 big thing: The next act in Biden's offshore drilling drama

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2. Catch up fast on policy: Congress and DOE 

3. China's emissions peak may arrive soon(ish)

4. Charted: climate tech's most active VC players

5. How climate change may harm trees fighting it

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🍺 Yes. Friday. Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,031 words, 4 minutes. 

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1 big thing: The global impact of local carbon cuts

Image showing calculations of lives saved if NYC climate targets are achieved.

2. New Mexico wildfire grows to state's largest in history

Satellite view of the Calf Canyon wildfire in New Mexico on May 11, 2022.

3. BP's new carbon capture plan and more biz notes

Bonus: the growing carbon capture pipeline

4. First Look: Evergreen pushes clean power goal

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5. High-profile group to address the "overshoot" problem

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☕ Good morning! Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,197 words, 4.5 minutes. 

💵 Michael Bloomberg is spending $242 million to boost clean energy in developing nations in Africa and elsewhere. Go deeper

🎸 This week in 1975 Aerosmith released a single which opens a beloved 1993 movie and gets us going as today's intro tune...

1 big thing: The U.S. is playing catch-up on EVs

Bonus: EV growth and headwinds

2. The soaring costs of climate inaction

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3. Australia set for big climate policy shift

Australian Prime Minister Australian opposition leader Anthony Albanese as he addresses election night supporters.

4. Layoffs at software startup and more biz notes

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5. Here comes a new international "climate club"

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👋 Welcome back! Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,196 words, 4.5 minutes. 

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🙏Thanks for reading and we'll see you back here tomorrow!

1 big thing: Troubling climate indicators 

2. UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

3. Al Gore's investment firm raises $1.7B for new fund

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4. EVs are shoving aside real volumes of oil

5. White House looks to soothe solar probe furor

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6. Battery recycling player nabs $80M 

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🐪 That day again! Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,113 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🚨 Breaking: European leaders released detailed plans to break reliance on Russian energy. They cover faster renewables permitting, diversifying gas suppliers and much more. Go deeper

🎶 This week in 1988, rap pioneers Run-DMC released the album "Tougher than Leather," which provides today's intro tune...

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Data: AVISO+ Products; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Key data released Wednesday underscores how swiftly human activities are reshaping the climate.

Why it matters: The “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a stark reminder for policymakers and business leaders that if the world continues on its current course, climate impacts will escalate in severity and scope. 

The big picture: The WMO report confirms the past seven years were the warmest such period on record.

2021 was comparatively cool, at 1.11°C above the pre-industrial level, due to a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

Once that event ends, and an inevitable El Niño sets in, a new warmest year will be crowned. 

Zoom in: Greenhouse gas concentrations reached a new high in 2021 and recently hit 420.23 ppm for the month of April 2022. 

Temperatures will continue to increase as long as carbon dioxide levels continue to go up, with a leveling off taking place once emissions reach zero. 

Ocean heat content hit a record high in 2021 — a telltale sign of a planet that is absorbing far more heat than it is releasing back into space. The vast majority of this extra heat goes into the oceans, with increasing temperatures in the upper 2,000 meters. 

Marine species are on the move as the ocean warms, and warming waters are altering the ocean’s ability to function as a giant carbon sink. Ocean chemistry is also changing as more CO2 is taken in, making waters more acidic. 

Threat level: Heat waves aren’t just a phenomenon felt on land, either, with marine heat waves observed on a global scale during 2021, wiping out some coral reefs and damaging others. 

Global mean sea level reached a record high too, with seas swelling at a faster rate than in the 1990s, which scientists have attributed to the growing ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica. 

The report highlights record ice mass loss among glaciers in Canada and the Pacific Northwest from extreme heat and wildfires last summer. 

The bottom line: The report amounts to an annual climate report card, and the planet fails to earn a passing grade. 

Yes, but: There are numerous solutions available to alter the planet’s trajectory if leaders act with urgency, as study after study has shown.  

Climate change benchmarks all set records last year, report finds

climate change effects

Energy & Environment

Data: Climate Central/NOAA NCEI; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. 

The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while aggravating wildfire conditions prior to its arrival. 

The widespread threat of "critical" fire weather conditions exists on Thursday into Friday, with red flag warnings up across nine states from California to New Mexico and Colorado, even extending into the High Plains states.

The weather conditions threaten to worsen a severe start to the wildfire season across the drought-stricken region. 

Threat level: A powerful cold front and low-pressure area is moving into the northern Rockies, with extremely cold air poised to spill in behind it. 

This front will be preceded Thursday by near-record heat in the Southwest, as well as dry air and high winds.  

In Denver, temperatures will be near 90°F today with high winds, before snow falls Friday night into the first part of the weekend.

The heat today will tie or break records in many places. 

Temperatures in the 90s to around 100°F from the Plains to the Southwest will be as much as 30 degrees above average, the National Weather Service said in an online discussion Thursday. 

"Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities," the NWS stated about the heat in Texas, in particular. 

The heat will also be a key component of the extremely dangerous wildfire conditions Thursday and in some regions into Friday too.

Context: Several large fires are already burning in New Mexico, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, which at more than 300,000 acres is the largest in state history. 

Other blazes are burning in parts of Colorado, threatening to spread with the heat and strong winds. 

Of note: There is a long-term trend in many parts of the West toward more days that feature dangerous fire weather conditions. 

In the region where the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak blaze is burning, the average number of fire weather days per year — days with a combination of heat, high winds and dry air — has increased by 59 days since 1973. 

What's next: Once the cold front passes through central Colorado, it's likely that a significant snowstorm will take place from the foothills of the Rocky Mountains to higher elevations, such as Rocky Mountain National Park. 

Computer models are showing the likelihood for as much as two or more feet of snow in some higher elevations, with at least a few slushy inches falling in downtown Denver. Some models are showing even more snow in the Denver region, possibly as much as 8 inches.  

May snowstorms are not unheard of in the Denver metro area, but in some areas, such as Boulder, this event could be especially historic. Since trees have greened up already, the potential for widespread power outages looms large. 

Denver

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Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

Axios Denver

Denver Alerts

Axios Denver Thought Bubble

Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Denver may go from about 90 degrees on Thursday to 35 degrees and snow by Saturday morning.

Climate change

The Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire seen from a Maxar satellite.

Extreme weather

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="aggravating wildfire conditions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/16/new-mexico-wildfire-calf-canyon-largest-state-history" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/16/new-mexico-wildfire-calf-canyon-largest-state-history" target="_self">aggravating wildfire conditions</a> prior to its arrival.

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

The United Nations is leading early discussions on forming a new global coalition to boost battery storage as part of a wider clean energy platform, Axios has learned. 

Driving the news: UN Secretary-General António Guterres laid out a five-point plan Wednesday morning to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide, including tackling thorny technology sharing issues between the industrialized world and developed nations. 

A key part of his plan is to advance renewable energy storage.  

The intrigue: It is likely the coalition would be led by a country or group of countries, rather than the UN itself.

Tech companies, manufacturers and financial institutions would be involved in the coalition as well. 

Making such technology work is a key challenge to overcome for large-scale deployment of clean energy sources. 

Details: In the video address accompanying the release of the “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization, Guterres also said renewable energy technologies such as battery storage should be treated as “essential and freely available global public goods.” 

This would mean making it easier to share knowledge and technologies, free from intellectual property constraints, to help countries around the world shift to clean energy, he said. 

Yes, but: Multiple climate agreements have called for technology sharing, but this has proved difficult to implement as companies and countries seek to hold onto their hard-won advances. 

UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

A five-point plan to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide

Photo of UN Secretary-General António Guterres

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on May 18.  Photo courtesy of the United Nations

United Nations (UN)

The United Nations is leading early discussions on forming a new global coalition to boost battery storage as part of a wider clean energy platform, Axios has learned. Driving the news: UN Secretary-General António Guterres laid out a five-point plan Wednesday morning to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide, including tackling thorny technology sharing issues between the industrialized world and developed nations.

Two new climate attribution studies underline the growing role human-caused climate change plays in worsening extreme weather events. 

Driving the news: The first study, out Wednesday from the U.K. Met Office, shows that climate change has already made the stifling and record heat seen this spring in northern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to occur.

Why it matters: India in particular is seeing a sharp increase in urban heat extremes, which can sicken or kill thousands. This year, India saw its hottest March, and Pakistan along with parts of India had their hottest April. The record heat has continued this month as well.

What they found: The study examines the shifting probability of exceeding the record-breaking temperatures seen in April and May of 2010.

It shows the probability of setting such records without human influence is about once in 312 years.

But due to climate change, this has ballooned to once every 3 years.

By the end of the century, this level of heat, with widespread temperatures at or above 120°F, may be an annual occurrence.

Meanwhile, a separate study examined one of Japan's most damaging typhoons on record, 2019's Typhoon Hagibis, which brought devastating flooding.

Threat level: The study, from researchers affiliated with the international World Weather Attribution effort, found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made the extreme rainfall as the storm made landfall 67% more likely.

In a stark finding, the study concluded that the effects of climate change boosted the storm’s damage by at least $4 billion out of the $10 billion in insured losses.

Zoom in: The dollar figure attribution stands out in the emerging field of extreme event research, which works to reveal how global warming is shifting the odds of the occurrence and/or severity of heat waves, floods and other major events.

For the new research, scientists at Oxford University and Imperial College London studied rainfall amounts from the storm, and used computer models to compare how likely the deluge is in a world warmed by greenhouse gas emissions compared to one without human influence.

As air warms, it is able to hold more water vapor that can then fuel storms and yield much heavier precipitation totals.

A 2020 study found that $67 billion of Hurricane Harvey's damage could be pinned on climate change.

The bottom line: “The negative consequences of the continued burning of fossil fuels are now evident and can be felt also in wealthy countries like Japan," Friederike Otto, who leads the World Weather Attribution effort, said in a statement.

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

Climate change drove at least $4 billion of Typhoon Hagibis' insured damages, a new study found.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022. (Weatherbell.com)

Two new climate attribution studies underline the growing role human-caused climate change plays in worsening extreme weather events. Driving the news: The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="first study" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubWV0b2ZmaWNlLmdvdi51ay9iaW5hcmllcy9jb250ZW50L2Fzc2V0cy9tZXRvZmZpY2Vnb3Z1ay9wZGYvcmVzZWFyY2gvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlL2F0dHJpYnV0aW9uL2luZGlhbl9oZWF0d2F2ZV8yMDIyLnBkZj91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc2dlbmVyYXRlJnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB9887430a" data-vars-content-id="ae0ff2c6-3cdb-410d-a3b3-a3b107bf2ebe" data-vars-headline="Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubWV0b2ZmaWNlLmdvdi51ay9iaW5hcmllcy9jb250ZW50L2Fzc2V0cy9tZXRvZmZpY2Vnb3Z1ay9wZGYvcmVzZWFyY2gvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlL2F0dHJpYnV0aW9uL2luZGlhbl9oZWF0d2F2ZV8yMDIyLnBkZj91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc2dlbmVyYXRlJnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB9887430a" target="_blank">first study</a>, out Wednesday from the U.K. Met Office, shows that climate change has already made the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="stifling and record heat seen this spring" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tLzIwMjIvMDUvMDIvaW5kaWEtcGFraXN0YW4taGVhdC13YXZlLWNsaW1hdGUtY2hhbmdlLXJlY29yZHM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXJfYXhpb3NnZW5lcmF0ZSZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB3ea75c71" data-vars-content-id="ae0ff2c6-3cdb-410d-a3b3-a3b107bf2ebe" data-vars-headline="Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tLzIwMjIvMDUvMDIvaW5kaWEtcGFraXN0YW4taGVhdC13YXZlLWNsaW1hdGUtY2hhbmdlLXJlY29yZHM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXJfYXhpb3NnZW5lcmF0ZSZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB3ea75c71" target="_blank">stifling and record heat seen this spring</a> in northern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to occur.

A hazardous weather weekend is shaping up across much of the Lower 48 states, with a potentially historic late May snowstorm cranking up across the Rockies and a heat wave hitting the East Coast.

Why it matters: More than 100 million Americans are experiencing dangerous weather conditions this weekend, as a cold front slams Colorado and southern Wyoming with heavy snow and a potentially record breaking heat wave surges toward the Northeast.

The big picture: A powerful cold front and its associated low-pressure area drove southeastward across the Rockies Friday, bringing heavy snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado.

Colorado Springs recorded over 9 inches of snow as of Saturday morning, while multiple towns west of Denver had over 10 inches on Friday night, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The town of Black Hawk, Colorado, reported 11 inches of snow as of Friday evening.

 The highest snowfall amounts recorded Saturday were in the mountains and foothills west of Denver and Boulder, with up to two feet reported around the Floyd Hill area, according to NWS Boulder.

More than 93,000 customers were without power in Colorado as of Saturday afternoon, according to the tracking service poweroutage.us.

Multiple reporting locations in Wyoming's portion of the Medicine Bow-Routt National Forests recorded more than a foot of snow on Friday.

The heavy snow is the result of winds pushing cold, moist air up and over the higher terrain, in a phenomenon known as upsloping.

Importantly, a forecast consensus has come together for more snowfall than previously expected in the urban corridor between Denver and Boulder, Colorado, with about six to eight inches or more possible in these areas, depending on snowfall rates and the exact surface temperature.

Sharply higher amounts will pile up in the foothills, though, and records for late May could be threatened or broken in some locations. Parts of Boulder, for example, could see a foot of snowfall before the event wraps up on Saturday afternoon

Threat level: The heavy snow falling on trees that already have their leaves could yield widespread tree damage and lasting power outages in the Denver and Boulder areas, and in some cases power may not be restored for days, according to the NWS.

The agency is warning residents not to park their cars near a tree, since it might topple onto the vehicle.

To the south of the snowstorm, dry and windy conditions are bringing yet another day of concerning fire weather conditions to parts of Utah, New Mexico and western Texas on Saturday.

Numerous wildfires are already burning throughout this region, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, the largest in New Mexico's history. Other fires are burning in southern Colorado and west Texas.

Meanwhile... Across the eastern part of the country, an unusually hot weekend is in store as a heat dome that had been parked over Texas shifts eastward. Widespread record-breaking temperatures are expected across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday. 

Much of the Northeast is under a heat advisory until 8 p.m. EDT on Saturday, with heat index values of 95 to 99 degrees expected for parts of New York, northwestern Connecticut and southeastern Vermont.

High temperatures will climb to the upper 90s° in Washington, D.C., Saturday, potentially breaking the previous record of 95°F set in 1934. As of Saturday morning, temperatures were already in the low 80s.

More than 100 million people will experience temperatures that are 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year.

It is possible that some monthly high-temperature records will fall, especially in the Northeast.

For most people in the East, the heat wave will be the hottest weather they will have experienced since August 2021. The first heat wave of the season can be particularly dangerous, with higher risks of heat-related illness since people are not yet accustomed to such high temperatures.

"The abrupt beginning of hot temperatures early in the season after a relatively cool spring brings an increased risk of heat illnesses unless proper precautions are taken for those working or recreating outdoors," the NWS said in a special weather statement.

"Since many outdoor events are planned this weekend in the region, be aware of the heat, and take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside this weekend. Reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening."

Human-caused climate change is making heat waves around the world more intense and more likely to occur and may be expanding their seasonal timing earlier in the spring and later into the fall.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

Extreme weather plagues U.S., from Colorado snowstorm to East Coast heat

From wildfires to heavy snow and a stifling heat wave, this weekend will feature an unusual array of hazards.

Computer model depiction of forecast highs and records along the East Coast for May 21, 2022.

National Weather Service forecast highs for Saturday, May 21, 2022. The boxes indicate record-setting temperatures. (Weatherbell.com)

extreme weather

A hazardous weather weekend is shaping up across much of the Lower 48 states, with a potentially historic late May snowstorm cranking up across the Rockies and a heat wave hitting the East Coast.Why it matters: More than 100 million Americans are experiencing dangerous weather conditions this weekend, as a cold front slams Colorado and southern Wyoming with heavy snow and a potentially record breaking heat wave surges toward the Northeast.

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Extreme weather plagues U.S., from Colorado snowstorm to East Coast heat

Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

Climate change benchmarks all set records last year, report finds

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