The one UN climate report graphic you need to see

1 big thing: The one IPCC graphic you need to see

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What a deluged California means for farmworkers

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TotalEnergies' window into the majors' thinking

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Charted: Reaching Paris likely means lots of CO2 removal

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⏰The countdown begins: Axios’ second annual What’s Next Summit is next Wednesday on March 29 in Washington, D.C.! 

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1 big thing: Putin, Xi and Biden navigate a reshaped energy world 

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Bonus: The growing U.S.-Europe LNG trade

2. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on policy: ESG, climate law, EVs

3. Behind the scenes of the IPCC's climate tussle

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4. One tech trend: A side of charging with your meal

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5. 🧮Number of the day: 10%

🥞Good morning! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,177 words, 4.5 minutes.

👀Breaking: White House Office of Science and Technology Policy boss Arati Prabhakar and key lawmakers have joined the main-stage lineup for Axios’ What’s Next Summit on Wednesday, March 29. Watch LIVE

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🙏 Thanks to Lisa Hornung and Javier David for edits to today's edition.

1 big thing: GE makes its move on carbon removal

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2. The new IPCC report is about choices, not doomsday

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3. Chinese EV player Nio deepens U.S. ties 

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4. Catch up fast on energy and climate finance

5. Strong atmospheric river hits California (again)

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🚀Off we go! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,233 words, 4.5 minutes.

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🎶 Today marks 35 years since Pixies released the indie classic "Surfer Rosa," which provides today's intro tune ...

Tiny island nation takes climate change to The Hague

1 big thing: Tiny island nation takes climate to The Hague

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2. A new dimension for food security

3. Making sense of Ford's EV losses

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Bonus: Charting EV sales growth

4. Big day for small nukes and more finance notes

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🕺🏽 Friday! Today's edition has a Smart Brevity count of 1,163 words, a 4.5-minute read.

🎶 On this date in 1986, synth-pop poets Pet Shop Boys dropped their debut album "Please," which provides today's intro tune ...

1 big thing: Carbon capture divides so it can grow

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Bonus: The medium-term future of carbon capture

2. Permitting reform fault lines 

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3. Bomb cyclone part 2 in California, heavy rains in South

4. Big this week: A critical EV decision for Biden

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5. Catch up fast on business

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National

Deadly and destructive tornadoes spiraled through parts of Mississippi and Alabama overnight Friday, killing at least 26 people, injuring dozens, and destroying homes and towns.

The latest: The National Weather Service said Saturday that the deadly tornado which struck the small towns of Rolling Fork and Silver City in southwest Mississippi has been given a preliminary rating of EF-4 -- the second highest. 

An EF-4 rating comes from the Enhanced Fujita scale, which categorizes tornados from 0 to 5, with 5 being the most catastrophic damage. EF-4 tornados have wind speeds between 166 to 200 mph.

In a tweet, the agency added that the tornado traveled 59 miles, beginning in Issaquena County and moving northeast toward Holmes County. 

The tornado was approximately 3/4 a mile wide and lasted for over an hour. 

Four other tornadoes that hit rural areas across northern Mississippi were given preliminary ratings of EF-1. A rating has not been given to the tornado which struck Amory, Mississippi.

Details: The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) confirmed 25 deaths and dozens of injuries Saturday afternoon. Four people previously missing have been accounted for, though there was no information given on their conditions. 

Deaths were reported across multiple counties, including Humphreys, Carroll, Monroe, and Sharkey, according to local news reports. Sharkey County Coroner Angelia Easton told ABC News that 13 people were killed in the storm. Rolling Fork is located in Sharkey County.

In Morgan County, Alabama, a man died after his mobile home overturned during a tornado, the sheriff's office said in a tweet. 

Video footage and photos captured the damage. One video showed extensive damage to Silver City, Mississippi, from the "large and extremely dangerous" tornado.

A view of the damage after a tornado tore through Mississippi on March 25, 2023. (Photo by Fatih Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Zoom in:  Silver City and Rolling Fork, both rural towns in the southwest, and Amory in the northeast, all sustained significant tornado damage.

After striking Rolling Fork, radar imagery showed tornado debris carried to 25,000 feet, raining down on towns miles ahead of the storm in an indication of the tornado’s intensity.

"Looking to my left and looking to my right, all I see is devastated buildings, flat grounds where physical buildings used to stand," Walker Eldridge, mayor of Rolling Fork, a town in southwest Mississippi decimated by a wedge tornado, told Fox News. "It's a terrible situation here."

In northeast Mississippi, WTVA meteorologist Matt Laubhan uttered a prayer, "Dear Jesus, please help them. Amen," during a live broadcast after a radar update showed a significant debris ball as the storm moved toward Amory.

Shortly after the storm hit, several storm spotters who tracked the tornado took to Twitter to appeal for people to hurry to Rolling Fork and Silver City to help with rescue efforts.

In Amory, the National Guard Armory, an Exxon gas station, and several other businesses were significantly damaged or destroyed. Damage was also reported at the local high school, and to homes throughout the town of around 6,500. 

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) declared a state of emergency in the counties impacted by the tornadoes, saying the state will "marshal every available resource on behalf of our neighbors in need. We’re here for the long haul."

Reeves said Saturday afternoon "the scale of the damage and loss is evident everywhere affected today. Homes, businesses … entire communities."

President Biden also issued a major disaster declaration for the impacted areas on Saturday, allowing residents and business owners access to federal aid.

What they're saying: Biden issued a statement Saturday expressing his condolences and called images from Mississippi "heartbreaking."

"While we are still assessing the full extent of the damage, we know that many of our fellow Americans are not only grieving for family and friends, they’ve lost their homes and businesses."

Reeves confirmed he spoke with Biden, adding that "the flood of support from governors, businesses, charities, and federal admin has been tremendous—matches the community here on the ground."

Of note: Multiple tornado emergencies were issued last night, the most dire tornado alert issued by the NWS. A tornado emergency alert indicates a confirmed, ongoing tornado is hitting, or will soon hit, a populated area.

Nighttime tornadoes are deadlier than those that strike during the day, in part because people are less attuned to sources for tornado warnings. 

Multiple risk factors scientists have been warning about for years combined last night to create this unfolding disaster.

Rural Mississippi has a high concentration of mobile homes, which can sustain serious damage even during weak tornadoes. 

A view of damage after a tornado tore through Mississippi on March 25, 2023. (Photo by Fatih Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout to include new details and photos.

"Terrible situation" unfolds in Mississippi after violent tornado outbreak

At least 25 people died in Mississippi and 1 in Alabama as a result of the storms, with the small towns of Rolling Fork, Silver City, and Amory sustaining the most damage.

Kenterica Sardin, 23, stands where her bedroom once was after being damaged from a series of powerful storms and at least one tornado on March 25, 2023 in Rolling Fork, Mississippi. At least 26 people have reportedly been killed with dozens more injured following devastating storms across western Mississippi. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)

Weather

Energy & Environment

The small Pacific island country of Vanuatu is poised to gain UN approval to seek an unprecedented legal opinion on what obligation countries have to combat climate change.

Why it matters: Vanuatu's resolution would give the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague a chance to weigh in on potential consequences for nations that have caused much of global warming to date.

The nonbinding advisory opinion could be cited by U.S. courts, and used in legal proceedings around the world.

The big picture: The push started in a law school classroom in Fiji four years ago, according to Cynthia Houniuhi, president of  Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change.

She and her international environmental law classmates brainstormed ways to seek action through various legal mechanisms, Houniuhi told reporters on a press call Thursday.

Propelled by youth activism, the effort to gain adoption by the UN General Assembly has been led by the Vanuatu government since 2021. The resolution, with a vote expected on March 29, has over 100 co-sponsors.

The intrigue: The questions the resolution asks the court are deliberately framed to avoid singling out large, industrialized countries responsible for the vast majority of historical global emissions.

This has helped the proposal gain steam in the General Assembly, picking up co-sponsors such as the U.K. and EU nations such as Norway. Australia recently signed on as well.

As a low-lying country, Vanuatu is acutely vulnerable to climate impacts. It is currently in a six-month state of emergency after two powerful tropical cyclones hit within one week in late February and early March.

The damage from those storms alone is expected to be half of Vanuatu's annual GDP, said Ralph Regenvanu, the country's top climate change and disaster risk management official.

Between the lines: Sandra Nichols Thiam, a climate litigation specialist at the nonprofit Environmental Law Institute, said an ICJ advisory opinion would be significant despite its nonbinding status. 

"This could be a really big deal," she told Axios in an interview. 

Thiam said U.S. courts routinely cite international law in their decisions, and this could help establish countries' responsibility to act on climate change in ways consistent with the scientific evidence.

This is a stricter standard than other climate cases seeking to hold governments accountable for meeting their commitments to date, Thiam added.

The case could help establish the goals that countries need to aim for based on their responsibilities for causing the problem, she added.

What they're saying: Odo Tevi, Vanuatu's UN ambassador, said his country pursued an inclusive process to build consensus around the resolution, and that countries are recognizing its importance.

"It touches on the fundamental issue," he said, which is "about protecting the present, and future generations."

What we're watching: Whether the U.S. throws its weight behind the resolution. 

A State Department spokesperson tells Axios discussions are ongoing, and there was "nothing to preview or share at this time."

The case could establish countries' legal responsibilities to protect the climate.

Climate change

The small Pacific island country of Vanuatu is poised to gain UN approval to seek an unprecedented legal opinion on what obligation countries have to combat <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="climate change" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" data-vars-content-id="aebb0457-a924-4542-bc51-cbddf1cbafd6" data-vars-headline="Tiny island nation takes climate change to The Hague" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a>.Why it matters: Vanuatu&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="resolution" data-vars-click-url="http://undocs.org/A/77/L.58" data-vars-content-id="aebb0457-a924-4542-bc51-cbddf1cbafd6" data-vars-headline="Tiny island nation takes climate change to The Hague" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://undocs.org/A/77/L.58" target="_blank">resolution</a> would give the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague a chance to weigh in on potential consequences for nations that have <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="caused much of global warming" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/20/ipcc-report-global-warming-narrow-window" data-vars-content-id="aebb0457-a924-4542-bc51-cbddf1cbafd6" data-vars-headline="Tiny island nation takes climate change to The Hague" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/20/ipcc-report-global-warming-narrow-window" target="_self">caused much of global warming</a> to date.

With residents of Mississippi and portions of Alabama reeling from the damage sustained during Friday night's deadly tornado outbreak, more severe weather is occurring across the Southeast. 

The big picture: The National Weather Service issued a rare high-risk outlook for excessive rainfall in Alabama and Georgia through Monday morning, including parts of Atlanta, and warned of potentially catastrophic flooding in these areas. Parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana also faced the threat of tornadoes overnight.

There's a moderate risk of severe weather from central Louisiana east through south-central Mississippi and central Alabama, "where supercell thunderstorms may produce a few strong tornadoes and very large hail," the NWS said in a weather discussion on Monday morning.

This is a level 4 out of 5 on the storm threat scale.

By the numbers: More than 2.7 million people live in the excessive rainfall high-risk area, including parts of metro Atlanta.

Threat level: The SPC said on Monday morning that the severe threat of tornadoes in the region had "diminished somewhat." 

A screenshot of an NWS tweet warning of potentially "catastrophic" localized flooding in Alabama and Georgia.

Photo: National Weather Service Atlanta/NWS Weather Prediction Center/Twitter

State of play: At least one tornado caused damage in Georgia on Sunday morning, per a storm report to the SPC. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) declared a state of emergency.

Hail larger than two inches was reported in the Jackson-area of Mississippi Sunday evening.

Forecasters warned wind shear, which refers to winds blowing in different directions and/or speed with height, would  be maximized as storms moved into Mississippi and Alabama later on Sunday. This is a key ingredient for tornado formation that was in abundance on Friday night. 

Yes, but: The key difference from this storm threat is the affected region is farther south than some of the hardest-hit communities from Friday's deadly event.

Communities in the region with the highest risk for tornadoes Sunday included Jackson and Hattiesburg, Mississippi, Auburn, Alabama, and Alexandria, Louisiana.

Of note: The long-lived, devastating tornado that caused extreme damage in communities such as Rolling Fork and Silver City, Mississippi, on Friday night has received a preliminary intensity rating of EF-4, with winds of between 166 mph to 200 mph. 

That tornado had a path length of at least 59 miles, lasting for 1 hour and 10 minutes, according to the NWS. It was three-quarters of a mile wide, based on the preliminary storm damage survey conducted Saturday. 

More surveys were under way Sunday, but the full path length of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the single or multiple tornadoes appears to have traveled at least 100 miles.

Zoom out: President Biden approved a federal disaster declaration on Saturday for Mississippi, which speeds the release of government aid to the state.

"There's still a lot of damage out there. There's a lot of work to be done at this point," Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) said of recovery efforts at a press briefing Sunday, noting that federal, state, and local officials were presenting a "united front" to address the situation.

Reeves said while the state was prepared for more severe weather Sunday, several areas faced "significant risks."

Rolling Fork Mayor Eldridge Walker at the briefing thanked volunteers for their work, observing that some came from as far away as Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana, as he vowed the city would come back "bigger and better than ever before."

A screenshot of a Tweet by Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves, stating "The devastation here in Rolling Fork is heartbreaking.  Thankful to our federal partners for being here on the ground to see the impact of this tornado.  The character and generosity of Mississippians is on full display with the countless volunteers and donations being offered."

Photo: Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves/Twitter

Context: Tornadoes are more common in the South and Southeast during March than in the Plains states, known informally as "Dixie Alley." 

Warmer than average ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and any lingering atmospheric effects from a recently diminished La Niña event could be aggravating factors in increasing storm risks.

La Niña is known to bring more weather disturbances to the region during spring. The landmark tornado outbreaks in April 2011 occurred during a La Niña spring. 

Milder than average ocean temperatures add to the atmospheric moisture, and therefore energy, available for severe thunderstorms in the South and Southeast. 

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

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Southeast faces severe flooding risk as more tornadoes threaten Mississippi

Additional "strong tornadoes" are possible Sunday in a region hit hard Friday night.

A man sits among damage from an EF-4 tornado in Rolling Fork, Miss., on March 25. Photo: Will Newton/Getty Images

Tornadoes

Extreme weather

With residents of Mississippi and portions of Alabama reeling from the damage sustained during <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Friday night&#x27;s deadly tornado outbreak" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/25/mississippi-tornado-rolling-fork-silver-city-deaths" data-vars-content-id="c5d335ea-2ded-4589-be3b-f9bb49f6abf1" data-vars-headline="Southeast faces severe flooding risk as more tornadoes threaten Mississippi" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/25/mississippi-tornado-rolling-fork-silver-city-deaths" target="_self">Friday night&#x27;s deadly tornado outbreak</a>, more severe weather is occurring across the Southeast. The big picture: The National Weather Service issued a rare <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="high-risk" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1640151062706556930?s=20" data-vars-content-id="c5d335ea-2ded-4589-be3b-f9bb49f6abf1" data-vars-headline="Southeast faces severe flooding risk as more tornadoes threaten Mississippi" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1640151062706556930?s=20" target="_blank">high-risk</a> outlook for excessive rainfall in Alabama and Georgia through Monday morning, including parts of Atlanta, and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="warned" data-vars-click-url="https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&amp;wwa=Flash%20Flood%20Warning" data-vars-content-id="c5d335ea-2ded-4589-be3b-f9bb49f6abf1" data-vars-headline="Southeast faces severe flooding risk as more tornadoes threaten Mississippi" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&amp;wwa=Flash%20Flood%20Warning" target="_blank">warned</a> of potentially catastrophic flooding in these areas. Parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana also faced the threat of tornadoes overnight.

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

A new graphic released Monday from the UN climate panel conveys the most important scientific findings about climate change — and breaks new ground.

Why it matters: From the depths of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments comes a unique global warming data visualization.

It illustrates how future warming depends on various emissions scenarios, and shows how climate change already affects — and is poised to alter — the lives of generations born in 1950, 1980, and 2020.

It underscores the responsibility people currently have to alter course on greenhouse gas emissions in the decades and centuries ahead.

Zoom in: The IPCC report contains stark findings, including that the world is way off track in limiting the severity of global warming; but there's still time to rein in emissions from fossil fuels, land use change and other sources.

For the 1950s group, much of the climate change they have experienced has occurred since the 1970s, when the fingerprints of greenhouse gases became more pronounced.

Those born in 1980 have already seen large and rapid shifts in climate, and will be 70-years-old during the middle of the century, which is the timeframe for when nations' emissions are supposed to hit net zero.

People born in 2020, however, could see a world that warms dramatically more than it has so far if emissions remain high.

The intrigue: Alex Ruane, a member of the IPCC report’s core writing team and a NASA climate researcher, tells Axios the generational icons show three groups of people, rather than only the oldest and youngest groups.

It's meant to depict how climate conversations are taking place today between grandparents, parents and children.

“Those conversations really are happening about the current state of the world and the future state of the world that we're leaving for our children and grandchildren,” Ruane said in an interview.

Ruane said the youngest generation faces potentially sweeping shifts in the climate by the end of the century.

“I think this figure helps kind of articulate, and it's not just that [the climate is] getting warmer, but if you look at that furthest future generation, the difference between the upper body and the lower body is really the difference in the choices that we're making,” Ruane said.

There is “a massive difference” of 2.5°C (4.5°F) between the upper and lower set of temperature projections by the time the younger generation has reached age 70 in 2090, he added.

This is more than twice as large of a difference as the entire warming the world has faced to date, which is now about 1.2°C (2.16°F) compared to the preindustrial era.

What they’re saying: “All of this disruption that we've seen in our experience is only half of the disruption that is dependent on our choices," he said.

He noted this leaves out the risk that more warming could trigger climate tipping points, bringing even more dramatic shifts.

Between the lines: The visualization picks up inspiration from many sources.

One comes from perhaps the most ubiquitous modern global warming depiction, known as the climate stripes. It was popularized by University of Reading climate researcher Ed Hawkins, and originally took inspiration from a knitted blanket Hawkins saw on Twitter.

The stripes symbolize each year’s temperature departures from average, and this data visualization has been applied to everything from social media campaigns to fashion, and even a U.K. soccer team’s uniforms.

The IPCC depiction also draws from work by IPCC lead author Malte Meinshausen, showing climate stripes since 1750 and projections out to 2100, using the language of “possible futures.”

The IPCC's newest innovation is to add generational icons, which have their own climate stripes corresponding to the global surface temperature changes for each year.

Our thought bubble: Now that people can see themselves in a climate projection, they may find the size, speed and scope of the climate challenge a bit unsettling.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

A new graphic released Monday conveys the most important findings by scientists about climate change.

This figure from figure SPM.1 in the United Nations IPCC's AR6 Synthesis Report shows the observed and possible projected global temperature trends and how they would impact different generations. Image: UN IPCC

A new graphic released Monday from the UN climate panel conveys the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="most important scientific findings" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/20/ipcc-report-global-warming-narrow-window" data-vars-content-id="c9e1080b-7be3-4b96-a0ae-40bd225ab8df" data-vars-headline="The one UN climate report graphic you need to see" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/20/ipcc-report-global-warming-narrow-window" target="_self">most important scientific findings</a> about climate change — and breaks new ground.Why it matters: From the depths of the UN&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/" data-vars-content-id="c9e1080b-7be3-4b96-a0ae-40bd225ab8df" data-vars-headline="The one UN climate report graphic you need to see" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/" target="_blank">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) assessments comes a unique global warming data visualization.

An intensifying storm associated with a strong atmospheric river hit Central to Southern California with heavy rains, damaging winds and heavy mountain snowfall on Tuesday.

Of note: It's an unusually intense March storm for Central California, with satellite and radar imagery exhibiting swirling clouds around the center — almost resembling a tropical cyclone.

Data from the National Weather Service's Bay Area office indicates it's the strongest storm on record there in March, judging by atmospheric pressure. 

Storm-hit California slammed by another historic atmospheric river

With increasing ocean and air temperatures, climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers.

An intensifying storm associated with a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="strong atmospheric river" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/12/atmospheric-rivers-explained-california-flooding-snow" data-vars-content-id="f6ceb7a3-9e8e-4589-8bc9-df0f58f11f68" data-vars-headline="Storm-hit California slammed by another historic atmospheric river" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/12/atmospheric-rivers-explained-california-flooding-snow" target="_self">strong atmospheric river</a> hit Central to Southern California with heavy rains, damaging winds and heavy mountain snowfall on Tuesday.Of note: It&#x27;s an unusually intense March storm for Central California, with satellite and radar imagery exhibiting swirling clouds around the center — almost resembling a tropical cyclone.

Andrew Freedman

Stories

Southeast faces severe flooding risk as more tornadoes threaten Mississippi

"Terrible situation" unfolds in Mississippi after violent tornado outbreak

Tiny island nation takes climate change to The Hague

The one UN climate report graphic you need to see

Storm-hit California slammed by another historic atmospheric river

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