1 big thing: Biden empowers the wonks 

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2. 🛢️ Court restores Gulf lease sale scope, and more policy notes

3. Charted: China's coal additions

4. Climate Week's split-screen 

5. 🚗 Number of the day: 21%

6. 🛢️Quoted

🧭 The compass is pointing due weekend, and we won't delay the trip — today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of just 1,157 words, 4.5 minutes.

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Biden's new "American Climate Corps" aims to enlist 20,000 young people

1 big thing: Biden pushes youth climate corps

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2. Bonus policy note: permitting EV charging

3. Who did not make the climate summit cut

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4. Oil slips as Fed decision looms

5. Here comes the next U.S. battery materials plant

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💰Tech number of the day: $1 billion

6. Catch up fast on finance: Banks and Bill Clinton

🎭 There's drama around today's U.N. climate summit. We'll get to that and more with a Smart Brevity count of 1,116 words, 4 minutes.

🚨 Big overseas: U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to scale back some climate commitments in a "major policy shift," the BBC reports.

A 2030 ban on the sale of new petro-powered cars may be delayed, per multiple outlets. Carbon Brief has a nice summary.

🎶 Exactly 50 years ago, the Allman Brothers Band was No. 1 on the Billboard album charts with "Brothers and Sisters," which has today's intro tune...

1 big thing:  A big climate shift

2. 🏃🏽‍♀️U.S. policy news and notes: SEC, DeSantis, EPA

3. Carbon removal player plans big projects in Africa

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4. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast: Crude, coal, and misleading claims

5. Canada's awful summer gives way to a burning fall

6. 💬 Quote of the day

🤦‍♂️ Yes, we've got a ludicrous "Blade Runner" homage today, but lots of important news too — all with a Smart Brevity count of just 1,178 words, 4.5 minutes.

⚡ Axios Pro is out with a new AI policy whitepaper — the legislation, lawmakers and companies to watch right now. Download it here.

🎶 This week in 1991, hip-hop geniuses A Tribe Called Quest dropped "The Low End Theory," so let's sizzle our retinas with today's intro tune...

1 big thing: China says no fossil fuel "phaseout" at COP28

Photo illustration of Xie Zhenhua over a background of a petrochemical plant and oil refinery.

2. Big this week: elusive "net-zero" path and more on our radar 

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Global climate vaults into even rarer territory, with more to come

3. Global climate heads into even rarer territory

4. 🖥️ On my screen: Exploration spending and hydrogen

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5. 🔋 Number of the day: 15 storage projects

1 fun thing: Computer model edition

☕ Good morning! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,250 words, 4.5 minutes. It's Yom Kippur. Wishing an easy fast to those who are observing.

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1 big thing: IEA says 1.5-degree path is narrower but doable

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2. Bonus: Charting the decline in fossil fuel energy sources

3. Ford leaves 'em guessing as it pauses battery plant

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4. China's World Bank equivalent steps up climate funding

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5. Feds offer millions for sustainable fuel rollout

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6. 💬 Quoted

🚀 We're off! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,323 words, 5 minutes. 

🛢️Situational awareness: A federal appeals court delayed this week's Gulf of Mexico lease sale to Nov. 8, but it upheld a lower court order blocking the Interior Department's new environmental restrictions and acreage withdrawals. Bloomberg has more.

🎹 This week in 1976, Stevie Wonder released the masterpiece "Songs In The Key Of Life," which provides today's intro tune...

National

The window for adhering to the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree temperature target is narrow, but quick action before 2030 could help forestall potentially devastating climate change impacts, a new report finds.

Why it matters: The assessment, from the International Energy Agency, is likely to prove influential at the upcoming UN climate summit in Dubai later this year and in energy policy circles afterward. 

Zoom in: The analysis is an update of the IEA's 2021 net zero scenario detailing what it would take for the world to hold climate change to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels. 

Climate studies show that if the world were to warm beyond this threshold, the odds of calamitous climate change impacts, from rapid and more significant sea level rise to deadly extreme weather events, would increase markedly. 

The IEA concludes that while significant progress has been made toward meeting the 1.5-degree target since its 2021 net zero scenario analysis was released, a narrower window now exists to limit warming to that level.

The report lays out a particular pathway to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, with different countries arriving at the goal at different times, depending on their circumstances. The U.S., as a major industrialized country, would be expected to reach net zero prior to 2050. 

The big picture: The IEA foresees global carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector peaking this decade after reaching a record high in 2022. 

In addition, it projects that coal, oil and natural gas demand will peak this decade "even without any new climate policies," due to the rapid expansion of cleaner energy technologies such as wind and solar power. 

The new analysis concludes that we already have the technologies needed to get the world about 80% of the way toward net zero emissions by 2050: renewables, energy efficiency, methane emissions cuts and electrification.

The report calls for a tripling of global installed renewables capacity to 11,000 gigawatts by 2030. 

Tripling renewables by 2030 is a goal that the president-designate of the upcoming UN climate summit in Dubai has endorsed and has been using to rally other nations.

Between the lines: According to the IEA, an effective program to squelch methane leaks could yield about one-fifth of all the emissions reductions through 2030 in the scenario, for just 2% of the net income the oil and gas industry earned in 2022. 

Methane is a powerful, short-lived greenhouse gas. 

The net zero emissions goal would require some technologies not yet proven to work at scale, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, as well as direct air capture. 

It will also take a lot of money — with annual clean energy funding growing from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to $4.5 trillion per year by the early 2030s. 

The intrigue: One of the most enduring — and often misinterpreted — sections of the IEA's 2021 net zero scenario scenario report was its emphasis that beyond committed oil, coal and gas projects as of 2021, new fossil fuel development would not be needed because of a steep drop in demand for them. 

The new report has similar language, stating: "No new long-lead time upstream oil and gas projects are needed in the NZE Scenario, neither are new coal mines, mine extensions or new unabated coal plants." 

However, the IEA warns that existing oil and gas assets and pre-approved projects should go forward and be maintained to avoid price spikes or other problems that could emerge during the energy transition.

The report calls electrification "the new oil," noting the challenges posed by having some of the raw materials in supply chains, such as critical minerals, be concentrated in particular geographical areas. 

Threat level: Should the global community decide not to put in place more ambitious climate policies through 2030, then achieving the 1.5°C target would be far more dependent on carbon removal technologies. 

"Removing carbon from the atmosphere is costly and uncertain," the report states. "We must do everything possible to stop putting it there in the first place." 

What they're saying: "The pathway to 1.5°C has narrowed in the past two years, but clean energy technologies are keeping it open," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol in a statement.

Reality check: Countries have consistently been failing to live up to their climate commitments, and setting their emissions reduction targets at levels that would fail to limit warming to just 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. 

This will be a major topic of debate at COP28 in Dubai.

odds of calamitous climate change impacts

consistently been failing to live up to their climate commitments

Paris Agreement's most ambitious target still within reach: report

Meeting it requires a Herculean effort, but we already have most of the needed technology.

Paris Agreement

Climate change

The window for adhering to the Paris Agreement&#x27;s 1.5-degree temperature target is narrow, but quick action before 2030 could help forestall potentially <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="devastating climate change impacts" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/14/climate-change-paris-accord" data-vars-content-id="42f36fca-5cd0-4483-a32b-c31686e93e27" data-vars-headline="Paris Agreement&#x27;s most ambitious target still within reach: report" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/14/climate-change-paris-accord" target="_self">devastating climate change impacts</a>, a new report finds.Why it matters: The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="assessment" data-vars-click-url="https://iea.li/net-zero-roadmap-2023" data-vars-content-id="42f36fca-5cd0-4483-a32b-c31686e93e27" data-vars-headline="Paris Agreement&#x27;s most ambitious target still within reach: report" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://iea.li/net-zero-roadmap-2023" target="_blank">assessment</a>, from the International Energy Agency, is likely to prove influential at the upcoming UN climate summit in Dubai later this year and in energy policy circles afterward.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

New York City's super-sized Climate Week featured a stark split-screen between the official business of the week, as showcased at the UN Climate Ambition Summit, and a trade show-like glimpse into our lower carbon future.

Why it matters: The core message from both sides is that progress is being made to decarbonize economies, but the pace and scale are nowhere as fast or sweeping as they need to be. 

Expect that to come up repeatedly at the UN Climate Summit in Dubai (COP28) later this year.

The private sector is emphasizing speed, while countries working within the UN process want speed plus a fossil fuel phaseout and more money to help developing nations suffering the worst consequences. 

It foreshadows COP28's fault lines, and the task ahead for the United Arab Emirates' leadership. 

The big picture: At more than 600 climate-themed events throughout the city this week, venture capitalists, policymakers, CEOs, corporate sustainability officers and others made the case that progress has been made to lower greenhouse gas emissions. 

Although President Biden's signature climate law, enacted a little more than a year ago, has helped jump-start the process, the world is still hurtling toward exceeding the Paris targets.

This message was echoed by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as he led Wednesday's summit.   

"We are talking about something that can be real if we mobilize all our energies to make it happen," Guterres said in his closing comments. "Now, the conditions are not yet fully met. Clearly, they aren't. We are in many aspects even moving backwards."

But just as Climate Week showcased many companies moving early and fast toward decarbonization, the UN summit falling in the middle was also a display of fissures that could potentially rupture at COP28. 

Many, in fact, echoed the secretary-general's advocacy for fossil fuel phaseout plans.

The intrigue: Guterres' stated goal was to show that if so-called first movers can align their policies to meet the Paris warming target of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels, "Everyone can do it."

Yes, but: While the president-designate of COP28, Sultan al-Jaber, will come to Dubai agreeing with the spirit of Guterres' summit, there are significant disagreements on the substance. 

Al-Jaber told Axios in an interview that he wants to focus on cutting emissions and tripling renewables by 2030 — but he did not endorse "phaseout" language, instead noting that a "phasedown is inevitable." 

For al-Jaber, that phasedown would apply to all "unabated" fossil fuel production, generally taken to mean that facilities that can capture and store carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions on site would be allowed.

"We need to start focusing on delivery and on driving results rather than pledges and endorsements," al-Jaber said, echoing a major theme of the week overall. 

The UAE is a major oil and gas producer, and al-Jaber, in addition to serving as the country's climate envoy and a top renewables official, runs the state-owned oil company ADNOC.

What they're saying: "We've always known that you can't promote to unplug the world from the current energy system before you actually build the new energy system. That is my personal view," he said. 

"And that's why we've been calling for and it has become actually one of my top priorities as part of my COP28 action plan for a fair, just, orderly and responsible and well-managed energy transition."

He answered critics of his leadership of COP28, due to his ADNOC affiliation, including a call from Al Gore to step down. He urged cooperation in the process, "rather than pointing fingers. We need to get real here, and we need to get to action."

Reality check: A major task for COP28 will be to formally assess whether (and how far off) the world is toward meeting the Paris targets, known as the Global Stocktake. It calls for an eventual phaseout of fossil fuels. 

How the COP presidency navigates the response, and possibly carves out a deal with the oil and gas industry, is likely to be pivotal. 

State of play: "[With] less than 70 days, there is a tricky diplomatic agenda for the UAE," said Rachel Kyte, dean emerita of The Fletcher School at Tufts University. 

This includes "a response to a stocktake that must address fossil fuels — the focus of the UN secretary-general at this summit." 

Kyte also noted that a positive outcome of the summit could be a deal on oil and gas, with the UAE bringing the industry to the effort, plus potentially creative ways to secure more climate financing. 

The bottom line: The private sector Climate Week's theme this year was "We can. We will."

If one could affix a theme to the UN summit it was: "We need to, but might not rise to the moment."

A climate change split screen in New York

New York City's super-sized Climate Week featured a stark split-screen between the official business of the week, as showcased at the U.N. Climate Ambition Summit, and a trade show-like glimpse into our lower carbon future.

Illustration of a shattered map of the world.

New York City&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="super-sized Climate Week" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/18/climate-week-nyc-what-to-watch" data-vars-content-id="55bbbc67-2826-4e95-aa50-b478170adcc5" data-vars-headline="A climate change split screen in New York" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/18/climate-week-nyc-what-to-watch" target="_self">super-sized Climate Week</a> featured a stark split-screen between the official business of the week, as showcased at the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="UN Climate Ambition Summit" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/21/climate-week-nyc-unga" data-vars-content-id="55bbbc67-2826-4e95-aa50-b478170adcc5" data-vars-headline="A climate change split screen in New York" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/21/climate-week-nyc-unga" target="_self">UN Climate Ambition Summit</a>, and a trade show-like glimpse into our lower carbon future.Why it matters: The core message from both sides is that progress is being made to decarbonize economies, but the pace and scale are nowhere as fast or sweeping as they need to be.

Data: NOAA; Note: Summers are ranked by their average June-August temperature. Years in the top 33% are considered above average; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Large swaths of the Sun Belt were hit by their hottest meteorological summer — June through August — on record.

Why it matters: The odds and severity of extreme heat events are rapidly increasing as the climate warms in response to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

It was the warmest June, July and August on record globally.

Zoom in: The Gulf Coast and New Mexico were particularly hard hit by heat this year. 

Corpus Christi, Texas, tied or beat 28 daily temperature records. New Orleans and San Antonio each had 26.

By the numbers: This summer was the warmest on record for nearly 5% of the contiguous U.S.

Mapped: The Sun Belt's summer for the record books

The Gulf Coast and New Mexico were particularly hard hit by heat this year.

extreme weather

Large swaths of the Sun Belt were hit by their hottest <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="meteorological summer" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/15/global-warming-extreme-heat-record" data-vars-content-id="9ece3bc1-5aa2-4c21-bfab-99f9bac58e61" data-vars-headline="Mapped: The Sun Belt&#x27;s summer for the record books" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/15/global-warming-extreme-heat-record" target="_self">meteorological summer</a> — June through August — on record.Why it matters: The odds and severity of extreme heat events are rapidly increasing as the climate warms in response to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

China's chief climate diplomat, Xie Zhenhua, has laid out that country's climate positions in advance of the UN climate summit in Dubai later this year.

Why it matters: China is the world's top current emitter of greenhouse gases, and it can either pave the way or block a new climate agreement.

Significantly, in remarks before the Center for China and Globalization think tank in Beijing, Xie said China opposes fossil fuel "phase out" language, which puts the country against small island states and some other countries that are pushing for such language to be in any COP28 agreement.

Xie also expressed a willingness to travel to the U.S. or a third country to meet with Biden's special climate envoy, John Kerry.

Kerry visited Beijing for climate talks in July.

The big picture: Kerry has consistently tried to carve out climate change  from myriad points of contention between the U.S. and China, from international trade to a potential move against Taiwan.  

Xie's comments may signal a willingness on the part of the Chinese government to at least travel further down that road.

The need for phasing out fossil fuels took center stage at the U.N. Climate Ambition Summit last week, but the U.S., China and India were not invited to speak at that event.

Yes, but: China's opposition to a phase out provision puts the country in line with the U.S., given the fact that the US is a fossil fuel production powerhouse, and an increasing exporter of natural gas. 

According to a Reuters report on Xie's comments, which Axios independently confirmed, Xie called a phase out "unrealistic," pointing to the intermittency of renewables and lack of a ready supply of large battery storage infrastructure. 

Flashback: At COP26 in Glasgow, China was among the countries that, at the 11th hour, pushed for changing language on a fossil fuel "phase out" to a "phase down," and also included a reference to technologies that would capture and store carbon emissions at the source, such as carbon capture and storage. 

The intrigue: China has been approving dozens of coal-fired power plants in recent years. That concerns Kerry, who raised it during meetings coinciding with the U.N. General Assembly last week. 

A recent, comprehensive report from the Al Gore-cofounded Generation Investment Management found that China is building more new coal plants than any other nation, and until that stops, global emissions are likely to climb.s 

What they're saying: "In a nutshell, both sides are testing the water gingerly and tying to see if they should deescalate the relationship ahead of the APEC summit," said Li Shuo of Greenpeace Asia. "If they do so, it will have big (and hopefully positive) implications for global issues, including climate and COP28." 

The APEC Summit takes place in San Francisco from Nov. 15-17.

phasing out fossil fuels took center stage

U.S., China and India were not invited to speak

Top emitter China says no to fossil fuel "phase out" language at COP28

Climate talks between the U.S. and China continue.

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Mohamed Abdel Hamid/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

China

China&#x27;s chief climate diplomat, Xie Zhenhua, has laid out that country&#x27;s climate positions in advance of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="UN climate summit in Dubai" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/22/climate-change-unga-cop28" data-vars-content-id="b066e2ac-a314-4dad-ab98-5507bcf3d110" data-vars-headline="Top emitter China says no to fossil fuel &quot;phase out&quot; language at COP28" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/22/climate-change-unga-cop28" target="_self">UN climate summit in Dubai</a> later this year.Why it matters: China is the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="world&#x27;s top current emitter" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2018/12/06/china-india-us-pushed-carbon-emissions-to-record-levels-in-2018" data-vars-content-id="b066e2ac-a314-4dad-ab98-5507bcf3d110" data-vars-headline="Top emitter China says no to fossil fuel &quot;phase out&quot; language at COP28" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2018/12/06/china-india-us-pushed-carbon-emissions-to-record-levels-in-2018" target="_self">world&#x27;s top current emitter</a> of greenhouse gases, and it can either pave the way or block a new climate agreement.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Tropical Storm Ophelia is bringing heavy rains, strong winds and coastal flooding Saturday from the Carolinas to the Jersey Shore.

The big picture: The storm made landfall early Saturday morning near Emerald Isle, N.C., with top sustained winds of 70 mph. It was steadily weakening Saturday afternoon, and forecast to become a tropical depression Saturday evening.

The National Hurricane Center is warning of life-threatening storm surge flooding along coastal areas of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey Saturday afternoon and evening. 

Storm surge refers to a rise of water, typically driven by a storm's winds, above the predicted astronomical tide levels. 

Heavy rains are also expected to worsen from Washington to Wilmington,   north to Philadelphia, Atlantic City and New York City through Saturday night.

Zoom in: In parts of the Carolinas, more than 6 inches of rainfall has fallen, and flood warnings have been issued. As the core of the storm spins north-northeastward, areas that have seen about 2 inches of rain so far, including the I-95 corridor, may pick up another 2 to 3 inches. 

Moderate to major coastal flooding is forecast for the Mid-Atlantic coastline as the storm's strong onshore winds bring high waves along with a surge of water on top of typical tide levels.  

Between the lines: The storm began as an area of low pressure along a slow-moving cold front, but gradually took on tropical characteristics. Friday night, Ophelia took advantage of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream to intensify nearly to hurricane strength before crossing the coast. 

Throughout Saturday, bands of heavy rains have been pushing outward, far-removed from the core of the tropical storm, all the way into southern New England. 

There have been scattered reports of trees and power lines down in the Richmond and Washington, D.C. areas, with more abundant damage reports further south and east. 

So far, wind gusts to hurricane force have been noted in North Carolina, including 80 mph in Wrightsville Beach, 64 mph in Lewes, Delaware, 58 mph in Dewey Beach, Delaware, and 54 mph on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. 

Our thought bubble: Ophelia came ashore as a stronger storm than initially expected, which may surprise some of the nearly 7 million people under tropical storm warnings as of Saturday afternoon. 

Go deeper: El Niño amplifies 2023's extreme weather

Editor's note: This story was updated with new information from the latest forecast.

El Niño amplifies 2023's extreme weather

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Tropical Storm Ophelia drenches Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic

The storm is also bringing flooding rains and damaging winds to millions.

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Ophelia on Saturday, Sept. 23. Credit: NOAA/GOES

Tropical Storm Ophelia is bringing heavy rains, strong winds and coastal flooding Saturday from the Carolinas to the Jersey Shore.The big picture: The storm made landfall early Saturday morning near Emerald Isle, N.C., with top sustained winds of 70 mph. It was steadily weakening Saturday afternoon, and forecast to become a tropical depression Saturday evening.

Andrew Freedman

Stories

Paris Agreement's most ambitious target still within reach: report

Top emitter China says no to fossil fuel "phase out" language at COP28

Tropical Storm Ophelia drenches Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic

Mapped: The Sun Belt's summer for the record books

A climate change split screen in New York

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