1 big thing: New insights on changing weather risks

Computer model projection of high temperatures on May 19, 2022 across South Asia.

2. Commodity surge could slow energy transition

3. Report: U.S. plots moves against Putin's crude

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Bonus European energy notes: coal and wind

4. Multi-state "critical" fire weather risk today

5. White House faces growing pressure on solar

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🕺🏽Happy Thursday! The dance emoji arrived early because the Axios staff is at our first in-person retreat since the pandemic began.

👍 We still have plenty of good stuff today with a Smart Brevity count of 1,211 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🎶 At this moment in 1985, Simple Minds had a one-week stint atop the Billboard Hot 100 with today's intro tune...

Thanks for reading and see you back here tomorrow! 

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Axios Generate

1 big thing: The global impact of local carbon cuts

Image showing calculations of lives saved if NYC climate targets are achieved.

2. New Mexico wildfire grows to state's largest in history

Satellite view of the Calf Canyon wildfire in New Mexico on May 11, 2022.

3. BP's new carbon capture plan and more biz notes

Bonus: the growing carbon capture pipeline

4. First Look: Evergreen pushes clean power goal

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5. High-profile group to address the "overshoot" problem

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☕ Good morning! Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,197 words, 4.5 minutes. 

💵 Michael Bloomberg is spending $242 million to boost clean energy in developing nations in Africa and elsewhere. Go deeper

🎸 This week in 1975 Aerosmith released a single which opens a beloved 1993 movie and gets us going as today's intro tune...

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1 big thing: U.S. is monitoring war's environmental toll

Maxar satellite imagery of buildings on fire in western Mariupol, Ukraine on April 9, 2022.

2. Ethanol emerges as carbon capture focus

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3. Europe's teetering push to ban Russian oil

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4. Support for LNG exports to Europe — with caveats

5. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on venture capital

🍺 Hello Friday. Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,167 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🎶 Happy birthday to the brilliant Stevie Wonder, who has today's intro tune...

Thanks so much for reading, and have a great weekend! 

1 big thing: Skyrocketing wildfire risks in US

Bonus: Shifting to more dangerous territory

2. Oil industry urged to spend profits on clean energy

3. Here comes Europe's plan to ditch Russian energy

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4. Also on our radar: SCOTUS, EVs, Interior

5. What they're saying: the next Gina McCarthy

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👋 Hi readers! Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,175 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🗓️ Tomorrow: Join Axios journalists at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event on cyberthreats. Guests include Rep. John M. Katko (R-N.Y.) and Harvard Belfer Center’s Cyber Project head Lauren Zabierek. Register

🎸 This week marks 45 years since The Jam dropped its debut album that provides today's blast of an intro tune...

1 big thing: Troubling climate indicators 

2. UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

3. Al Gore's investment firm raises $1.7B for new fund

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4. EVs are shoving aside real volumes of oil

5. White House looks to soothe solar probe furor

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6. Battery recycling player nabs $80M 

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🐪 That day again! Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,113 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🚨 Breaking: European leaders released detailed plans to break reliance on Russian energy. They cover faster renewables permitting, diversifying gas suppliers and much more. Go deeper

🎶 This week in 1988, rap pioneers Run-DMC released the album "Tougher than Leather," which provides today's intro tune...

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Data: AVISO+ Products; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Key data released Wednesday underscores how swiftly human activities are reshaping the climate.

Why it matters: The “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a stark reminder for policymakers and business leaders that if the world continues on its current course, climate impacts will escalate in severity and scope. 

The big picture: The WMO report confirms the past seven years were the warmest such period on record.

2021 was comparatively cool, at 1.11°C above the pre-industrial level, due to a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

Once that event ends, and an inevitable El Niño sets in, a new warmest year will be crowned. 

Zoom in: Greenhouse gas concentrations reached a new high in 2021 and recently hit 420.23 ppm for the month of April 2022. 

Temperatures will continue to increase as long as carbon dioxide levels continue to go up, with a leveling off taking place once emissions reach zero. 

Ocean heat content hit a record high in 2021 — a telltale sign of a planet that is absorbing far more heat than it is releasing back into space. The vast majority of this extra heat goes into the oceans, with increasing temperatures in the upper 2,000 meters. 

Marine species are on the move as the ocean warms, and warming waters are altering the ocean’s ability to function as a giant carbon sink. Ocean chemistry is also changing as more CO2 is taken in, making waters more acidic. 

Threat level: Heat waves aren’t just a phenomenon felt on land, either, with marine heat waves observed on a global scale during 2021, wiping out some coral reefs and damaging others. 

Global mean sea level reached a record high too, with seas swelling at a faster rate than in the 1990s, which scientists have attributed to the growing ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica. 

The report highlights record ice mass loss among glaciers in Canada and the Pacific Northwest from extreme heat and wildfires last summer. 

The bottom line: The report amounts to an annual climate report card, and the planet fails to earn a passing grade. 

Yes, but: There are numerous solutions available to alter the planet’s trajectory if leaders act with urgency, as study after study has shown.  

Climate change benchmarks all set records last year, report finds

climate change effects

Energy & Environment

Data: Climate Central/NOAA NCEI; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. 

The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while aggravating wildfire conditions prior to its arrival. 

The widespread threat of "critical" fire weather conditions exists on Thursday into Friday, with red flag warnings up across nine states from California to New Mexico and Colorado, even extending into the High Plains states.

The weather conditions threaten to worsen a severe start to the wildfire season across the drought-stricken region. 

Threat level: A powerful cold front and low-pressure area is moving into the northern Rockies, with extremely cold air poised to spill in behind it. 

This front will be preceded Thursday by near-record heat in the Southwest, as well as dry air and high winds.  

In Denver, temperatures will be near 90°F today with high winds, before snow falls Friday night into the first part of the weekend.

The heat today will tie or break records in many places. 

Temperatures in the 90s to around 100°F from the Plains to the Southwest will be as much as 30 degrees above average, the National Weather Service said in an online discussion Thursday. 

"Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities," the NWS stated about the heat in Texas, in particular. 

The heat will also be a key component of the extremely dangerous wildfire conditions Thursday and in some regions into Friday too.

Context: Several large fires are already burning in New Mexico, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, which at more than 300,000 acres is the largest in state history. 

Other blazes are burning in parts of Colorado, threatening to spread with the heat and strong winds. 

Of note: There is a long-term trend in many parts of the West toward more days that feature dangerous fire weather conditions. 

In the region where the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak blaze is burning, the average number of fire weather days per year — days with a combination of heat, high winds and dry air — has increased by 59 days since 1973. 

What's next: Once the cold front passes through central Colorado, it's likely that a significant snowstorm will take place from the foothills of the Rocky Mountains to higher elevations, such as Rocky Mountain National Park. 

Computer models are showing the likelihood for as much as two or more feet of snow in some higher elevations, with at least a few slushy inches falling in downtown Denver. Some models are showing even more snow in the Denver region, possibly as much as 8 inches.  

May snowstorms are not unheard of in the Denver metro area, but in some areas, such as Boulder, this event could be especially historic. Since trees have greened up already, the potential for widespread power outages looms large. 

Denver

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Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

Axios Denver

Denver Alerts

Axios Denver Thought Bubble

Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Denver may go from about 90 degrees on Thursday to 35 degrees and snow by Saturday morning.

Climate change

The Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire seen from a Maxar satellite.

Extreme weather

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="aggravating wildfire conditions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/16/new-mexico-wildfire-calf-canyon-largest-state-history" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/16/new-mexico-wildfire-calf-canyon-largest-state-history" target="_self">aggravating wildfire conditions</a> prior to its arrival.

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

The United Nations is leading early discussions on forming a new global coalition to boost battery storage as part of a wider clean energy platform, Axios has learned. 

Driving the news: UN Secretary-General António Guterres laid out a five-point plan Wednesday morning to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide, including tackling thorny technology sharing issues between the industrialized world and developed nations. 

A key part of his plan is to advance renewable energy storage.  

The intrigue: It is likely the coalition would be led by a country or group of countries, rather than the UN itself.

Tech companies, manufacturers and financial institutions would be involved in the coalition as well. 

Making such technology work is a key challenge to overcome for large-scale deployment of clean energy sources. 

Details: In the video address accompanying the release of the “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization, Guterres also said renewable energy technologies such as battery storage should be treated as “essential and freely available global public goods.” 

This would mean making it easier to share knowledge and technologies, free from intellectual property constraints, to help countries around the world shift to clean energy, he said. 

Yes, but: Multiple climate agreements have called for technology sharing, but this has proved difficult to implement as companies and countries seek to hold onto their hard-won advances. 

UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

A five-point plan to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide

Photo of UN Secretary-General António Guterres

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on May 18.  Photo courtesy of the United Nations

United Nations (UN)

The United Nations is leading early discussions on forming a new global coalition to boost battery storage as part of a wider clean energy platform, Axios has learned. Driving the news: UN Secretary-General António Guterres laid out a five-point plan Wednesday morning to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide, including tackling thorny technology sharing issues between the industrialized world and developed nations.

Two new climate attribution studies underline the growing role human-caused climate change plays in worsening extreme weather events. 

Driving the news: The first study, out Wednesday from the U.K. Met Office, shows that climate change has already made the stifling and record heat seen this spring in northern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to occur.

Why it matters: India in particular is seeing a sharp increase in urban heat extremes, which can sicken or kill thousands. This year, India saw its hottest March, and Pakistan along with parts of India had their hottest April. The record heat has continued this month as well.

What they found: The study examines the shifting probability of exceeding the record-breaking temperatures seen in April and May of 2010.

It shows the probability of setting such records without human influence is about once in 312 years.

But due to climate change, this has ballooned to once every 3 years.

By the end of the century, this level of heat, with widespread temperatures at or above 120°F, may be an annual occurrence.

Meanwhile, a separate study examined one of Japan's most damaging typhoons on record, 2019's Typhoon Hagibis, which brought devastating flooding.

Threat level: The study, from researchers affiliated with the international World Weather Attribution effort, found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made the extreme rainfall as the storm made landfall 67% more likely.

In a stark finding, the study concluded that the effects of climate change boosted the storm’s damage by at least $4 billion out of the $10 billion in insured losses.

Zoom in: The dollar figure attribution stands out in the emerging field of extreme event research, which works to reveal how global warming is shifting the odds of the occurrence and/or severity of heat waves, floods and other major events.

For the new research, scientists at Oxford University and Imperial College London studied rainfall amounts from the storm, and used computer models to compare how likely the deluge is in a world warmed by greenhouse gas emissions compared to one without human influence.

As air warms, it is able to hold more water vapor that can then fuel storms and yield much heavier precipitation totals.

A 2020 study found that $67 billion of Hurricane Harvey's damage could be pinned on climate change.

The bottom line: “The negative consequences of the continued burning of fossil fuels are now evident and can be felt also in wealthy countries like Japan," Friederike Otto, who leads the World Weather Attribution effort, said in a statement.

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

Climate change drove at least $4 billion of Typhoon Hagibis' insured damages, a new study found.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022. (Weatherbell.com)

Two new climate attribution studies underline the growing role human-caused climate change plays in worsening extreme weather events. Driving the news: The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="first study" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubWV0b2ZmaWNlLmdvdi51ay9iaW5hcmllcy9jb250ZW50L2Fzc2V0cy9tZXRvZmZpY2Vnb3Z1ay9wZGYvcmVzZWFyY2gvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlL2F0dHJpYnV0aW9uL2luZGlhbl9oZWF0d2F2ZV8yMDIyLnBkZj91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc2dlbmVyYXRlJnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB9887430a" data-vars-content-id="ae0ff2c6-3cdb-410d-a3b3-a3b107bf2ebe" data-vars-headline="Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubWV0b2ZmaWNlLmdvdi51ay9iaW5hcmllcy9jb250ZW50L2Fzc2V0cy9tZXRvZmZpY2Vnb3Z1ay9wZGYvcmVzZWFyY2gvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlL2F0dHJpYnV0aW9uL2luZGlhbl9oZWF0d2F2ZV8yMDIyLnBkZj91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc2dlbmVyYXRlJnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB9887430a" target="_blank">first study</a>, out Wednesday from the U.K. Met Office, shows that climate change has already made the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="stifling and record heat seen this spring" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tLzIwMjIvMDUvMDIvaW5kaWEtcGFraXN0YW4taGVhdC13YXZlLWNsaW1hdGUtY2hhbmdlLXJlY29yZHM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXJfYXhpb3NnZW5lcmF0ZSZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB3ea75c71" data-vars-content-id="ae0ff2c6-3cdb-410d-a3b3-a3b107bf2ebe" data-vars-headline="Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/27765569.4405/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tLzIwMjIvMDUvMDIvaW5kaWEtcGFraXN0YW4taGVhdC13YXZlLWNsaW1hdGUtY2hhbmdlLXJlY29yZHM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXJfYXhpb3NnZW5lcmF0ZSZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5874ee3c0aea11c30c8b4e1eB3ea75c71" target="_blank">stifling and record heat seen this spring</a> in northern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to occur.

At 298,060 acres as of Monday morning, the Calf Canyon Fire in New Mexico is now the largest blaze in state history, surpassing the Whitewater-Baldy Fire of 2012.

Why it matters: Mired in a megadrought fueled by climate change, New Mexico and the rest of the Southwest are already experiencing major fires this year. Other western states are likely to see severe wildfire seasons due to a shorter-term drought that extends across the entire West.

Threat level: A red flag warning is in effect Monday for northeastern New Mexico, including the area in and around the wildfire, between noon and 8pm local time.

There is a threat of erratic winds gusting to 60 mph at times, near-record high temperatures, and dry lightning strikes that could cause further ignitions and spread the fire. Thousands have already been displaced from the blaze, including from tourism-dependent locations in Taos County.

For Monday, the National Weather Service is predicting "near critical" wildfire weather conditions, which will challenge firefighters as they struggle to increase containment on the fire, which stood at just 27% as of Monday morning.

The Calf Canyon Fire is, in fact, the largest wildfire anywhere in the U.S. so far this year.

The heat and low humidity levels are expected to continue throughout the week. Forecasters are also concerned about heat and high winds spreading the fire on Tuesday, with even more widespread critical fire weather for Thursday and Friday, due to the combination of dry conditions and high winds. 

The big picture: The Calf Canyon Fire is the result of a combination of two fires, one of which, the Hermit's Peak Fire, was a prescribed burn set April 6 by the federal government. It escaped containment amid high winds and dry weather and eventually merged with the nearby Calf Canyon blaze.

New Mexico typically sees its biggest fires in May and the first part of June before the Southwest monsoon kicks in and brings more moisture into the region. This year, the fires started earlier and were larger than average for that time of year. 

Go deeper: Northern New Mexico wildfire forces more evacuations

New Mexico Calf Canyon Fire becomes largest in state history

The fire surpassed a 2012 blaze for the top spot, and it is still growing.

The Calf Canyon Wildfire seen from space on May 11, 2022.

Wildfires

At 298,060 acres as of Monday morning, the Calf Canyon Fire in New Mexico is now the largest blaze in state history, surpassing the Whitewater-Baldy Fire of 2012.Why it matters: Mired in a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="megadrought fueled by climate change" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/02/14/southwest-megadrought-driest-1200-years" data-vars-content-id="dc3c49eb-4751-4ea2-8797-bc663c2e1d46" data-vars-headline="New Mexico Calf Canyon Fire becomes largest in state history" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/02/14/southwest-megadrought-driest-1200-years" target="_self">megadrought fueled by climate change</a>, New Mexico and the rest of the Southwest are already experiencing <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="major fires this year" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/09/extremely-critical-wildfire-threat-southwest-heat-wave" data-vars-content-id="dc3c49eb-4751-4ea2-8797-bc663c2e1d46" data-vars-headline="New Mexico Calf Canyon Fire becomes largest in state history" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/09/extremely-critical-wildfire-threat-southwest-heat-wave" target="_self">major fires this year</a>. Other western states are likely to see severe wildfire seasons due to a shorter-term drought that extends across the entire West.

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Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

Climate change benchmarks all set records last year, report finds

New Mexico Calf Canyon Fire becomes largest in state history

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