More than one-third of U.S. adults say they've been affected by an extreme weather event in the past two years, with larger increases in the West and South, a new Gallup poll shows.

• But that increase from two prior surveys — from 33% to 37% — is within the poll's margin of error.

Why it matters: Climate change is making certain types of extreme weather events more severe and frequent, exposing more Americans to significant disruptions to their lives.

Zoom in: The new Gallup survey of 1,002 people, out this morning, shows upticks in the total number of Americans living in the West who have experienced an extreme weather event, at 43%.

• This was up from 30% in 2023.
• The biggest reasons for the uptick was exposure to wildfire-related impacts and heat waves, the survey shows.
• 17% of those living in the West said they have been affected by wildfires in the prior two years, compared to just 5% in 2023.

There was also an increase among those living in the South, where about half of respondents reported they experienced an extreme weather event during the past two years.

• In the South, hurricanes were the type of extreme weather hazard most likely to affect people, with 28% saying they experienced one in the past two years, up from 18% in 2023, the survey showed.

The intrigue: The 2023 and 2024 Atlantic hurricane seasons brought destructive storms to the Southeast, including Hurricanes Milton and Helene last year.

• Climate change is projected to lead to more frequent occurrences of high-end hurricanes (though not more frequent hurricanes overall) and is already showing a tie to increased instances of rapid intensification of storms.
• Climate change is also causing these massive storms to deliver more rainfall than they used to, leading to inland flooding disasters, as was seen in North Carolina from Hurricane Helene.

Zoom out: Based on a separate question Gallup asked, Americans in the new poll who recently experienced extreme weather were much more likely to say they worry about climate change "a great deal" compared to those who haven't been through such an event.

• This effect was seen among both Republican and Democratic respondents and suggests that extreme weather experiences may correlate with greater climate change concern.
• The Gallup poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

What we're watching: Whether concerns about extreme weather motivate climate policymaking at the state and local levels in particular.

Republicans' possible targeting of a key IRA feature has led to a fierce lobbying campaign from energy developers.

Why it matters: Tax credit transferability — which enables mineral supply chain, nuclear, biofuels and other sectors to monetize the credits — created a wider avenue for developers to raise billions of dollars.

• Republicans could see narrowing access to the credits as a way to tap a large pot of money to fund extension of President Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

Driving the news: Eliminating transferability "is an option that is under discussion," John Miller, managing director at TD Cowen, told Axios.

• His read: Republicans "aren't ideologically opposed to transferability, but if it bought them, say, $100B in 'offsets,' then it is worth exploring."
• The 21 House Republicans who signed a letter last month urging protection of IRA credits called out transferability.

Zoom in: The IRA opened up the tax equity markets — which have been accessible primarily to the largest wind and solar developers — to emerging technologies.

• Crux Climate, which helps tax credit transfers, estimated $30 billion in tax credit transactions occurred in 2024.
• The firm added two teams of former Hill staffers this year to lobby on tax issues.

What we're watching: The GOP strategy for tackling the IRA credits is still very much in flux.

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🧑‍🎓GE Vernova will provide $50 million over five years for a new partnership with MIT to develop cutting-edge tech and train the "next generation of power industry leaders," they said.

• What's next: The alliance includes research, student internships and fellowships, and professional development for personnel at GE Vernova, which like MIT is in Cambridge, Mass.

⚛️ Dow and small reactor startup X-energy have submitted a construction permit application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for plans to power a major Dow plant in Texas.

• Why it matters: The companies say the project would be the first grid-scale reactor to power a North American industrial site.
• What's next: The NRC review could take 30 months, the firms said. They're seeking to have the project running in the early 2030s. AP has more.

💵 Private equity firm Siltstone Capital is raising $100 million for its first fund focused on the energy transition, a person familiar with the raise tells Axios.

• Why it matters: The firm will initially focus on solar energy, joining a surge of M&A in the sector.
• Go deeper: Unlock the whole story, and talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.

🛢️ Oil prices are trading near 5-week highs as markets weigh President Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on Russian oil and (waves arms around) lots of other stuff. Brent crude is in the mid-$74 range as we hit send this morning.

• Why it matters: The market is quite the mix of headwinds and tailwinds for prices right now. Even different White House trade policies — the Russia threat, looming reciprocal tariffs and more — have opposing pressures.
• What they're saying: "At first glance, the imposition of tariffs would appear to be bearish for oil prices, given the likely contractionary impact for key demand centers such as China," RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft said in a note.
• Yes, but: "And yet, the White House's willingness to directly target oil exports through sanctions rebranded as tariffs to punish producers seen as American adversaries poses the opposite price risk," she adds.

🤝 Chevron is selling a 70% stake in its East Texas gas assets to a majority-owned subsidiary of Tokyo Gas in a $525 million deal.

• Why it matters: The companies said it will help finance development in the Haynesville shale. Tokyo Gas called it part of wider efforts to expand its LNG value chain as Japan seeks supply, while Chevron said it supports its divestment plans to optimize its portfolio. AP has more.

That's U.S. crude oil production in January, the lowest level in nearly a year, per new Energy Information Administration data.

Why it matters: It might be another signal U.S. producers aren't in a mood to drill, baby, drill at recent prices and demand forecasts.

• That said, output levels bounce around even amid a general upward trend.

What we're watching: Whether EIA sticks with its projection that U.S. production will average 13.6 million barrels per day this year, up from the record 13.2 mbd last year.

• Its next monthly 2025-2026 outlook lands April 8.