Trump's climate-change avoidance could have dire consequences

Zoom in: Officials are canceling climate research programs, deleting government climate websites and datasets and firing climate scientists from agencies such as the Agriculture Department and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

• At the National Institutes of Health, the administration reportedly killed the program researching the health effects of climate change.
• At the EPA, where a slew of regulations are being rolled back and the agency's mission repurposed, an entire division of researchers is being considered for cuts.
• In addition, the EPA is reconsidering the 2009 greenhouse gas endangerment finding, which held that certain greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare.

Between the lines: "Everything's reversible; it's a question of a certain time scale," said Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M professor and climate researcher. "As time goes on, it's going to become harder and harder to reproduce it."

• Trump's decision to leave the Paris Agreement could thwart meeting the Paris target of holding global warming to 2°C relative to preindustrial levels, depending on how much it alters global emissions and the course of climate diplomacy.

Threat level: Every fraction of a degree of warming brings greater effects in the form of extreme weather events, sea level rise and species extinctions, studies show.

• "We are where we are — entering the era of climate consequences —because politicians failed to get this right," said Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse.

The intrigue: Related efforts to cut back on research funding to colleges and universities may not be specifically targeted at climate science — but it is affecting it.

• Dessler views the attacks on academia — along with federal scientific research budgets and programs — as part of an effort to "go after the roots" of regulations, since scientific research often reveals what should be regulated.
• He told Axios that the objective seems to be to "further an agenda where businesses don't have to pay the costs of pollution."
• Instead, Dessler said, "Those costs are being pushed onto society."

What they're saying: "The president's view that climate change is someone else's problem is delaying action in the near term," said Alex Flint, executive director for the Alliance for Market Solutions and a longtime former Republican congressional aide, in an interview.

• "The reality is setting in around the world that we have already gone past 1.5 degrees C, we are on track to 3.3 degrees C, and our ability to change that is declining, rather than strengthening," Flint said.

The other side: The Trump administration said it is focused on policy rollbacks and bringing down energy costs.

• "President Trump campaigned on dismantling the Green New Scam and ending the disastrous regulations and mandates supported by the radical climate change lobby in our country," deputy press secretary Harrison Fields told Axios.
• "The Trump administration has already rolled back these anti-American policies while protecting our environment and prioritizing American-made energy through the President's 'Drill Baby Drill' agenda — and prices are already improving as a result."

Trump himself has repeatedly denied that human-caused climate change exists.

• And EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has said his agency was "driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion" by pursuing sweeping rollbacks of environmental policies.
• Even so, the administration is pursuing or considering some approaches that may benefit the climate, most notably nuclear energy and carbon capture.

Go deeper: One of the administration's more quixotic climate-related policies involves Trump's desire to annex Greenland for national security reasons.

• The warming Arctic is why the region is suddenly home to a growing power contest among Russia, China and the United States.

Zoom out: While the White House enacts policies to favor the increased exploration and use of fossil fuels, other countries — particularly China — may speed up in the other direction, Dessler said.

• "These policies are essentially giving China the 21st century," Dessler said, speaking of the combination of university research cuts and steps being taken within government.

What we're watching: So far, the Trump administration hasn't gone after climate science budgets at the Energy Department, NOAA and NASA. But that may only be a temporary reprieve.

• How these cuts are distributed could determine what climate research capacity the U.S. has left and whether the country will see harms coming and be able to prepare for them.