America's second Paris withdrawal is not like the first
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President Trump's Day 1 move to begin the process of withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time sends a clear signal to international partners that the U.S. is hot and cold on climate action.
Why it matters: The world is a very different place today than in 2017, when Trump first moved to have the U.S. depart from the then-nascent agreement.
- There may be sufficient momentum now in both the Paris regime as well as the burgeoning clean energy sector that this will make only a symbolic difference.
Zoom in: To have the U.S., which is the second-largest emitter behind China, exit the agreement even temporarily has the potential for other countries to start viewing the U.S. as an unreliable partner on climate and potentially other issues as well.
- Last time the U.S. left, no other country followed that move. This time could be different, given the rightward, anti-climate policies tilt in some key countries.
- The departure comes just after the Earth's hottest year on record and as climate impacts are becoming more obvious, from the devastating California wildfires to landscape-shifting hurricanes like Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
- However, the move also comes when clean energy innovation and deployment have hit new highs.
Between the lines: America's withdrawal from Paris doesn't take effect immediately, although the executive order notes the administration will treat it as such.
- The executive order was written to be far-reaching, cutting off funding for the UN climate organization that oversees annual climate summits and facilitates activities under Paris and other climate agreements since 1992.
- It would also squelch American contributions to international climate financing that would help countries adapt to climate impacts and boost clean energy production.
- To become official, it takes one year after U.S. diplomats submit a document to the UN climate bureaucracy notifying them of an intent to withdraw (last time Trump withdrew, it took longer due to a feature in the then-young agreement's provisions.)
There are outstanding questions of whether the Trump administration will continue to send some representatives to the annual climate summits, as it did during his first term, or skip entirely.
The main beneficiary of a U.S. withdrawal and pro-fossil fuels policies domestically could be China, which already leads the U.S. in the clean tech space.
Reality check: Right now, the global community is off track on the road to the Paris Agreement's goals.
- If the U.S.'s step back from international climate engagement results in a slower decline in global emissions, it would mean even worse climate impacts.
- It would also ensure that the agreement's 2°C target, which many experts say is still feasible with rapid emissions cuts, could slip.
What they're saying: "There is no sugar-coating this — it will be harmful to global efforts to combat climate change, and so ultimately, also harmful to the future prosperity and security of U.S. citizens," said Kaveh Guilanpour of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, in a statement.
- He noted, though, that the world has been here before, and the agreement survived.
