World hurtling past Paris Agreement climate goals, UN warns

Zoom in: This year's "Emissions Gap Report," which the UN Environment Program publishes, finds that the world is currently headed for about 2.6°C to 3.1°C (4.68°F to 5.58°F) of warming compared to preindustrial levels.

• The lower end of this range reflects the full implementation of current emissions reduction commitments submitted under the Paris Agreement. The higher end reflects the path the world is on under current policies.
• The report warns that in these scenarios, the world would continue to warm even beyond the current century.
• While these ranges may seem relatively insignificant, the world has already warmed by around 1.3°C (2.34°F), with widespread impacts ranging from increasingly common and severe extreme weather events to sea level rise and shifts in how precipitation is distributed globally.

Scientists have warned that the planet is already approaching some of the irreversible tipping points in the climate system, such as the collapse of portions of the polar ice sheets and huge shifts in ocean currents, with a far higher chance of triggering them with warming exceeding 1.5°C.

The intrigue: UNEP finds that only a "massive global mobilization" to cut greenhouse gas emissions by the world's 20 largest economies would have a chance to meet Paris' stretch goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

• "Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before — starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges," UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said in a statement.
• Without this, she said, "The 1.5°C goal will soon be dead."

Small island states and other countries on the climate front lines view the 1.5-degree target as essential to their survival.

• To limit warming to below 2°C, emissions must fall 28% below 2019 levels by 2030 and 37% by 2035.
• The chance of limiting global warming to the 1.5°C target is "virtually zero" if countries don't live up to all of their most ambitious plans, including currently-fuzzy net zero targets, the report finds.

Between the lines: Delays in climate action since 2019 mean the world must cut about 7.5% of emissions per year through 2035 to meet the 1.5°C target, and 4% for 2°C, the report states.

• By contrast, emissions grew by about 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, the report finds.
• If major emitters such as China, the U.S., the EU and India wait longer to cut emissions significantly, nations will need to make even steeper cuts over shorter periods of time.
• The size of the emissions gap identified in the new study is largely unchanged from last year, said Anne Olhoff, the main author of the latest report.

Yes, but: Every fraction of a degree of warming averted helps avoid more serious consequences from climate change, even if the Paris targets aren't met.

• The report makes clear that countries have the technologies on hand to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, and double the global average rate of energy efficiency improvements on that timescale as well, among other voluntary commitments leaders have made.
• However, it will take a large-scale, near-Herculean effort to accomplish these goals, one that recognizes that the up front costs will more than pay for themselves in the form of avoided climate damages.

What they're saying: "We are teetering on a planetary tightrope," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a media message.

What's next: Countries are due to submit their next round of national emissions reduction pledges in advance of the COP30 summit in Brazil next year, which will include goals for 2035.