President Trump's head-in-the-sand approach to climate change during his second term could put Americans at greater risk of harm from its effects, some analysts warn.

Why it matters: Just three months into his tenure, his administration's actions may not be reversible given how many rollbacks are being pursued and how many scientific programs are being disbanded, some observers say.

Zoom in: Officials are canceling climate research programs, deleting government climate websites and datasets and firing climate scientists from agencies such as the Agriculture Department and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

• In addition, the EPA is reconsidering the 2009 greenhouse gas endangerment finding, which held that certain greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare.

Between the lines: "Everything's reversible; it's a question of a certain time scale," said Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M professor and climate researcher. "As time goes on, it's going to become harder and harder to reproduce it."

• Trump's decision to leave the Paris Agreement could thwart meeting the Paris target of holding global warming to 2°C relative to preindustrial levels, depending on how much it alters global emissions and the course of climate diplomacy.

Threat level: Every fraction of a degree of warming brings greater effects in the form of extreme weather events, sea level rise and species extinctions, studies show.

• "We are where we are — entering the era of climate consequences —because politicians failed to get this right," said Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse.

The intrigue: Related efforts to cut back on research funding to colleges and universities may not be specifically targeted at climate science — but it is affecting it.

• Dessler views the attacks on academia — along with federal scientific research budgets and programs — as part of an effort to "go after the roots" of regulations, since scientific research often reveals what should be regulated.

The other side: The Trump administration said it is focused on policy rollbacks and bringing down energy costs.

• "President Trump campaigned on dismantling the Green New Scam and ending the disastrous regulations and mandates supported by the radical climate change lobby in our country," deputy press secretary Harrison Fields told Axios.
• "The Trump administration has already rolled back these anti-American policies while protecting our environment and prioritizing American-made energy through the President's 'Drill Baby Drill' agenda — and prices are already improving as a result."

Trump himself has repeatedly denied that human-caused climate change exists.

• And EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has said his agency was "driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion" by pursuing sweeping rollbacks of environmental policies.
• Even so, the administration is pursuing or considering some approaches that may benefit the climate, most notably nuclear energy and carbon capture.

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Oil prices slid to their lowest levels since 2021 today after China unveiled steep retaliatory tariffs, adding to yesterday's plunge on news of the White House trade war and more OPEC+ supply.

Why it matters: The swirling forces bringing the steep drop serve one White House goal (lower energy prices) while further impeding another (drill baby drill).

Driving the news: China will impose 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods, the nation's finance minister said today.

• Yesterday OPEC+ said it would speed up the unwinding of some production curbs.
• The stated reason for adding 411,000 barrels per day in May, instead of 135k as planned, is healthy fundamentals (a debatable observation).
• Add trade battles that are bearish for demand and OPEC+ adding more barrels and you get Brent prices at $65.50 this morning.

Between the lines: On OPEC+, RBC Capital Markets also sees internal politics to discourage some members including Kazakhstan and Iraq from overproduction as one reason behind the decision.

• But ClearView Energy Partners, in a note, sees some connection to Trump, who has previously called for more OPEC output.
• Oil was exempted from Trump's new tariffs. But his broader trade battles, and steps like last week's threat of secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian oil, could have influenced the group.

"Even if one discounts the idea that rumbles from Washington are enough to drive a production increase on their own, we suspect neither the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia], the Kremlin nor other OPEC+ players will be disappointed if [yesterday's] decision has the effect of minimizing economic risks emanating from the White House," ClearView said.

The Energy Department is weighing deep cuts to its Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations portfolio as Democrats call for an IG investigation into the agency's actions.

Why it matters: A spreadsheet obtained by Axios provides the most detail yet into the agency's thinking about individual demonstration projects.

• It recommends terminating more than $7 billion awarded to 39 projects.
• The cuts, which amount to nearly half the total federal award dollars on the spreadsheet, show that the DOE is getting closer to making final decisions on a major reorganization.

What we're watching: As Axios previously reported, the agency continues to recommend cuts to almost all carbon capture projects and hydrogen hubs in blue states such as California, Delaware and New Jersey.

• One direct air capture hub, Project Cypress in Louisiana, is still under OCED evaluation, the document shows.
• The DOE has recommended retaining the X-energy and TerraPower advanced nuclear demonstration projects.

Unlock the whole story, and if you need smart, quick intel on energy and climate policy for your job, get Axios Pro Policy.

Global efforts to reform consumer subsidies for fossil fuels are getting more common — but failing more often, a new study finds.

Why it matters: Consumption and production subsidies make fighting climate change harder, but political barriers to cutting them are high.

Driving the news: Analysis in Nature Climate Change looked at gasoline reforms from 2016-2023 in 21 nations with the largest consumer subsidies.

• 2016-2023 saw a big jump relative to 2000-2015, coinciding with the period after the 2015 Paris Agreement.
• But "just 30% of the reforms survived for 12 months, and only 9% survived for 36 months," they find, noting "ambitious reforms were especially fragile."

How it works: The University of California scholars explored two broad categories of reforms in countries including Angola, Iran, Egypt, Malaysia, and Indonesia:

• Price reforms that allow costs to rise 10% in a month or 25% over 3 months.
• "Fixity" changes, in which governments end fixed pricing and subsidies altogether.

Between the lines: UC-Santa Barbara political scientist Paasha Mahdavi, the lead author, tells me the findings are "generally applicable" to products like diesel and fuel oil with similar cost visibility.

• Applying them to electricity is dicier because prices are often tougher to parse.

The big picture: Calls for cutting fossil subsidies are common in UN climate summit texts in recent years and other multilateral forums going back to the 2000s.

• But it's tricky. Some are wasteful and flow to the wealthy, but others help poor people access vital energy.

The bottom line: The findings show the "extraordinary challenge" of market pricing reforms.

• But the paper sees opportunities in climate-friendly policies that reduce demand. Full study.

🧳 BP board chairman Helge Lund is stepping down in the latest big change at the energy giant that's pivoting away from the green strategy he oversaw after joining in 2019.

• What's next: Senior independent director Amanda Blanc will lead the succession process, with Lund departing "most likely" in 2026, BP said. The FT has more.

🤝 Brookfield Infrastructure Partners is buying the massive Colonial Pipeline system in a deal for Colonial Enterprises valued at $9 billion including debt.

• The intrigue: Bloomberg makes a good point, noting that while Trump officials are keen to expand infrastructure, it "faces significant regulatory and permitting barriers, making existing assets valuable."

That's the number of federal sites, including several national labs, that DOE has ID'd for potentially hosting new AI data centers and power infrastructure.

What's next: The department issued a formal request for info on the concept and wants replies within 30 days. It hopes to have projects operating in 2027.