1 big thing: The Kavanaugh cash surge

A crowd of anti-Kavanaugh protesters on the Supreme Court steps

2. Pay attention to this Kansas House race

Congressman Kevin Yoder at a subcommittee hearing

3. Ad of the week: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida

4. Over 180,000 people have already voted in the 2018 midterms

5. Trail pic of the week: Jeff Johnson

Minnesota governor candidate Jeff Johnson speaks at a Trump rally

We're four weeks out from the Nov. 6 election. 

National

Axios 2018

1 big thing: Republicans are getting nervous about the House

2. Some GOP bright spots

3. Ad of the week: Ben and Jerry's for Democrats

4. Wave watch: Midterm interest spikes among Dems

5. Axios 8 for 2018: Beto still faces an uphill battle

6. Trail pic of the week: Don Jr. in West Virginia

We're two weeks out from the Nov. 6 midterm elections. 

1 big thing: Axios 8 update — Democrats aren't running the table

A map of the United States with the Axios 8 states highlighted

2. Democrats' big challenge: white men without college degrees

3. Ad of the week: "Stop the Trumpadas"  

4. Tom Steyer: It's a "failed year" if Dems don't flip the House

5. Suburban women breaking for Dems on gun control

6. What the 2006 and 2010 midterms can tell us about 2018

7. Trail pic of the week: Will Ferrell knocking doors in GA

We're one week out from the Nov. 6 midterm elections. 🚨🚨🚨

1 big thing: Election Day nerves

Exclusive poll: Trump gets credit on the economy, Republicans don't

What a midterms split would mean for 2020

Ad of the week: Trump's infamous caravan ad

Early voting numbers have skyrocketed

Democratic women have a better shot at the House

Trail pic of the week: Ted Cruz in Texas

🗳️ Happy Election Day! It's finally here. Make time to vote, and bring your friends. 🗳️

1 big thing: A midterm split

2. Axios 8 for 2018 update

3. A low-turnout warning for Dems

4. College students swear they'll vote this time

5. Ad of the week: Peter Roskam in IL

6. By the numbers: Latino voters in the 2018 midterms

7. Trail pic of the week

We're three weeks out from the Nov. 6 election.

Axios Sneak Peek

President Biden plans to issue his highly anticipated executive order on police reform in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: With crime surging across the country, the political stakes for any executive action dealing with law enforcement are high. Republicans are convinced focusing on crime will help them in November and have pilloried Democrats for their progressive flank's "defund-the-police" rhetoric.

White House officials have logged over 90 hours of engagement with congressional leaders, the civil rights community, police unions and families of those killed by police, a person familiar with the matter told Axios.

The goal has been to strike the right balance, since top Biden aides know there are political risks for what the president ultimately includes — and omits.

Civil rights activists and progressives — key constituencies for Democrats to energize ahead of the midterm elections — are demanding more accountability from law enforcement and action from Biden.

Many are also deeply disappointed by Congress' failure to act.

Driving the news: The second anniversary of George Floyd's murder on May 25 will renew attention on police reform.

At the same time, Biden has been trying to appeal to centrist voters by highlighting his anti-crime efforts.

He used his State of the Union address to emphasize "the answer is not to defund the police,” a message he repeated Sunday while speaking to the families of fallen law enforcement officials at the beginning of National Police Week.

“Being a cop today is a heck of a lot harder than it’s ever been,” he told the families.

“The answer is not to abandon the streets. It’s not to choose between safety and equal justice,” he said.

The big picture: After congressional negotiations over the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act collapsed last September, the president turned his focus to a possible executive order.

While the legislation served as an outline for executive action, the White House recognized that big changes to police practices — like changing qualified immunity — could only be done through legislation, the person familiar with the matter told Axios.

The act, though, served as a shell for changes Biden could take by executive action.

They include establishing new guidelines to combat hiring bias, improving data collection on best criminal justice practices and bolstering public health responses to people in crisis.

What they're saying: “I hope that the executive order strikes a balance between the legitimate concerns of the civil rights community and the legitimate concerns of the law enforcement community,” said Jim Pasco, executive director of the Fraternal Order of Police.

“Our goals are the same: to make the country safer for everybody without discrimination,” said Pasco, who Biden recognized in his remarks on Sunday.

Police groups are ready to pounce if they feel the order goes too far, as they did when the Federalist published a leaked draft in January.

Derrick Johnson, president of NAACP, told Axios: "What the administration is proposing is a great thing, but it’s secondary because an executive order only pales in its effectiveness to actual legislation."

"We commend the administration for stepping in, but we implore the Senate to do its job and change policing in this country so that communities and police officers are safe, and so that bad actors are not a part of law enforcement culture."

Damon Hewitt, president and executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, said: "It can't be a gravy train of money just for police to be police. It's got to be money that actually — if it's going out — leads to some different results."

Between the lines: Biden has interspersed events on public safety with announcements or actions on criminal justice reform.

On Friday, he touted the more than $10 billion in American Rescue plan funding for local law enforcement and other public safety measures.

In late April, he marked "Second Chance Month" by announcing three pardons and commuting 75 sentences. Last year, the Department of Justice announced it was limiting the use of “no-knock” warrants and chokeholds by federal agents.

It was the first time he had used his clemency powers as president.

Scoop: Biden preps high-stakes police reform executive order

The second anniversary of George Floyd's murder on May 25 will renew attention on police reform.

President Biden is seen awarding medals of valor to public safety officials.

President Biden awards Officer Kyle Baker of the Concord (N.C.) Police Department the Public Safety Officer Medal of Valor, along with fellow Concord officers Paul Stackenwalt (left) and Kaleb Robinson (center), during a ceremony in the East Room on Monday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Joe Biden

Politics & Policy

Colorado Hispanics who aren't registered to vote say they may not register before November, citing discontent with both parties and the economy, according to a study from Emerson College's nationwide initiative on Latinos.

Why it matters: The new survey and focus groups show the challenges that Democrats and Republicans face long-term with one of the nation's fastest-growing voting blocs.

Details: The Emerson College project found that non-registered Latino voters in Colorado were split over whether their vote would make a difference, with 41% revealing they believe it won't change anything. 

Young people 18-24 made up the highest share of those non-registered citizens who felt that way, indicating they could be the most challenging bloc for either party to persuade this fall.

Non-registered U.S. citizens were similarly split over whether they could be motivated to register and vote (40% said "if they were more informed") — but 39% said nothing could persuade them.

The big picture: These Hispanic residents in Colorado shared that while they don't have strong positive or negative feelings about either party, they feel more aligned with the Democrats on abortion, immigration, and the economy.

But they expressed frustration with the Democratic Party's unfulfilled promises and the high costs of some of their proposed social programs. 

What they're saying: “I mean, I don't want to [register to vote],” a 22-year-old non-registered citizen said in one of Emerson College's focus groups. “It's not going to really change a whole lot, more of the change comes from the local level if you really want to change something.”

“For the Democrats, the first thing that came to my mind is that prices go up and the economy sinks down. A lot of promises to reform things, but nothing really happens,” a 62-year-old woman in a voter focus group said.

Don't forget: Some Latino political consultants say Democrats are losing Latino voters by primarily focusing on immigration reform instead of the economy, even though immigration consistently ranks 5th or 6th among Latino concerns.

They also say Republicans alienate Latino voters with offensive messages, but Democrats fail to engage with Hispanic voters and reach out to them late in election cycles.

Be smart: Hispanics are now 18.7% — 62.1 million people — of the total U.S. population.

There were around 30.6 million eligible Latino voters in 2020, according to a City University of New York study.

Methodology: The survey of U.S. Hispanic citizens in Colorado was conducted April 19-25, 2022. This poll was based on a sample consisting of 310 non-registered citizens in Colorado, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points.

Three in-person focus groups were conducted of participants of Hispanic ethnicity in Denver on May 2 and May 3, 2022.

Subscribe to Axios Latino and get more news that matters about Latinos and Latin America, delivered right to your inbox on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Denver

Picture of the Denver skyline with DEN written across it.

Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

Axios Denver

Denver Alerts

Axios Denver Thought Bubble

First look: Latino non-registered voters not keen on either party

Colorado Hispanics who aren't registered to vote say they may not register before November because both parties do little for them.

Health Coverage Guide Jesse Lopez of the Aurora Coverage Assistance Network talks about health care with Pedro and Milda Quintanar during a Latino enrollment event in Denver.

Latino health care enrollment event at Escuela Tlatelolco in Denver. Photo: Craig F. Walker/The Denver Post via Getty

Hispanic and Latino Americans

Colorado Hispanics who aren&#x27;t registered to vote say they may not register before November, citing discontent with both parties and the economy, according to a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="study" data-vars-click-url="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/economic-toll-weighs-heavy-on-colorado-hispanics-poll-and-focus-groups-find" data-vars-content-id="6c5e5e70-cabe-4560-9459-77a7454b3286" data-vars-headline="First look: Latino non-registered voters not keen on either party" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/economic-toll-weighs-heavy-on-colorado-hispanics-poll-and-focus-groups-find" target="_blank">study</a> from <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Emerson College&#x27;s nationwide initiative on Latinos" data-vars-click-url="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/" data-vars-content-id="6c5e5e70-cabe-4560-9459-77a7454b3286" data-vars-headline="First look: Latino non-registered voters not keen on either party" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/" target="_blank">Emerson College&#x27;s nationwide initiative on Latinos</a>.Why it matters: The new survey and focus groups show the challenges that Democrats and Republicans face long-term with one of the nation&#x27;s fastest-growing voting blocs.

Emboldened Republicans plan to double down on a nationwide "election integrity" push after Georgia saw record early voting in today's primary.

Why it matters: President Biden and other Democrats had attacked the state's new ballot restrictions as "Jim Crow 2.0." But early voting came in at nearly triple Georgia's 2018 level. 

What's happening: Republicans argue the results refute Democrats' claims that the 2021 election law signed by Gov. Brian Kemp (R) amounted to voter suppression.

Democrats contend the high early turnout is the result of energized efforts to educate voters and say the biggest changes from the law were related to absentee ballot access and rules — not early voting.

About 4,000 votes were attributable to the additional day of early voting that Republicans have touted under the new law, according to the Atlanta-Journal Constitution's Mark Niesse.

Reality check: Rejection rates for provisional ballots won't be available until after the election, so the complete picture won't be clear for weeks.

Georgia state Rep. Bee Nguyen, a Democratic candidate for secretary of state, told reporters that the 2021 municipal elections saw increased rates of absentee ballot rejections under the new law.

"The question here is: After this election cycle for the primary, how many voters were disenfranchised by the cutting down of absentee ballot voting?" she said. "And how many voters had to change the mechanism in which they were choosing to vote?"

What to watch: A Republican familiar with the party's plans told Axios the GOP will "continue to tout election integrity efforts through November" on top of the millions already spent — casting Georgia as a "victory."

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chair of the Senate GOP's campaign arm, said companies like Delta look "foolish" for having criticized the Georgia law, telling Axios' Alayna Treene they "'ought to apologize."

Zoom out: Republicans are expected to launch the second wave of election reform bills in state legislatures — with GOP-led states, including Georgia and Arizona, taking "another pass" at additional changes, Heritage Action executive director Jessica Anderson told Axios.

Anderson signaled another push to overhaul election laws is also likely in states — including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — where Democratic governors have vetoed GOP voting bills.

What they're saying: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell co-opted the term "big lie" — used to describe former President Trump's false claims about the 2020 election — twice on Tuesday to attack Democrats' "fake hysteria" about voter suppression.

"It was a big lie, and the big lie is in the process of being disproven," McConnell claimed on the Senate floor, later using similar language at a leadership press conference.

Stacey Abrams, the presumptive Democratic nominee for Georgia governor, countered that the Republican claims of vindication amount to "correlation without causation." 

"We know that across the state, voters are still facing difficulties," she told reporters. "And this is just the primary. Primary voters tend to be more active and engaged voters."

Republicans parade Georgia's record early turnout

Democrats say the high turnout does not prove voter suppression has not occurred.

Illustration of several versions of the elephant from the Republican Party logo stampeding and kicking up dust.

Georgia

Emboldened Republicans plan to double down on a nationwide &quot;election integrity&quot; push after Georgia saw record early voting in today&#x27;s primary.Why it matters: President Biden and other Democrats had attacked the state&#x27;s new ballot restrictions as &quot;Jim Crow 2.0.&quot; But early voting came in at <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="nearly triple" data-vars-click-url="https://sos.ga.gov/news/georgia-election-law-results-record-early-voting-turnout" data-vars-content-id="7ad7fc49-83d7-4e87-acc1-68eaae8ca551" data-vars-headline="Republicans parade Georgia&#x27;s record early turnout" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://sos.ga.gov/news/georgia-election-law-results-record-early-voting-turnout" target="_blank">nearly triple</a> Georgia&#x27;s 2018 level.

The Republicans in Congress who most used the word “abortion” in social media posts and press releases recently were all men except one, Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, according to data compiled by Quorum.

Why it matters: Both parties are engaged in a messaging war over the hot-button issue, after the leak of a draft Supreme Court decision that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Politicians are scrambling to strike the right tone with voters just six months from the 2022 midterms.

Among the 10 Democrats who used the term "abortion" the most between May 2 and May 12, all are women but three: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Sean Casten (D-Ill.).

The big picture: Democrats and Republicans are studying the midterm map to gauge in which races the anticipated reversal of Roe would cause the greatest disruption.

While they don’t agree, strategists and elected officials on both sides of the aisle have been crafting and sharing talking points across their parties.

The Senate Republicans' campaign arm has been circulating a three-page memo, obtained by Axios’ Alayna Treene, with guidance about how candidates and lawmakers can boost their messaging with voters.

Between the lines: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) — who's opened up about her own abortion story — mentioned "abortion" over 80 times during the period under review.

Ditto Rep. Barbara Lee of California, who's talked publicly about getting an abortion at 16 — which she labeled "a back-alley abortion in Mexico."

The Republican who used the term the most, Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.), said it about half as many times as Jayapal.

Go deeper: More House Democrats used the word than their Senate colleagues, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) grabbed center stage the week of the leak.

She's since become her party's main voice on the issue.

Republican Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn, both of Texas, have joined Blackburn in mentioning the issue more than their other colleagues.

Texas has been ground zero for abortion politics ever since its restrictive law went into effect on Sept. 1.

It prohibits nearly all abortions, including in cases of rape or incest, at the moment an embryonic heartbeat is detected.

Men dominate GOP messaging over abortion

Both parties are engaged in a messaging war over the hot-button issue.

Abortion

The Republicans in Congress who most used the word “abortion” in social media posts and press releases recently were all men except one, Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, according to data compiled by Quorum.Why it matters: Both parties are engaged in a messaging war over the hot-button issue, after the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="leak of a draft Supreme Court decision" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/roe-v-wade-supreme-court-leak-stuns-nation-7488063e-69e5-4de7-b371-6c472e7c4e9d.html" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/roe-v-wade-supreme-court-leak-stuns-nation-7488063e-69e5-4de7-b371-6c472e7c4e9d.html" target="_self">leak of a draft Supreme Court decision</a> that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Politicians are scrambling to strike the right tone with voters just six months from the 2022 midterms.

The rise of far-right Republican candidates has some Republicans considering voting Democratic this fall — and some Democrats trying to engineer the rise of ultra-MAGA candidates they feel will be easier to defeat in a general election.

Why it matters: Embracing unorthodox voting strategies illustrates the concern both parties have about ultra-conservative candidates competing in high-stakes campaigns for governor and U.S. Senate.

While Donald Trump has a tight grip on the GOP and has endorsed over 100 candidates so far this cycle, some of his handpicked candidates are viewed as too extreme even for his own colleagues.

Concerns about the prospects of one even he didn’t back helped fuel a late Republican effort to stop Kathy Barnette in yesterday's Pennsylvania Senate race (she ended up third).

It also prompted Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro to air an ad saying Republican Doug Mastriano was too conservative for the state. That ended up boosting Mastriano among Republicans, as Politico noted, and helping him win on Tuesday.

What they're saying: “In a general election, if it's Shapiro vs. Mastriano, there will be a significant number of swing-voting Republicans and independents who will vote for Shapiro — and particularly in eastern Pennsylvania," Charlie Dent, a former Republican House member from the state, told Axios.

"Many Republicans leaders will likely be supporting him, too, but whether they do it publicly or not is another matter,” Dent added.

In another political hotbed, thousands of Georgians who've voted Democratic in the past appear to have pulled Republican primary ballots this year, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.

 "Whoever wins the gubernatorial election in November will be my governor regardless of party affiliation. So, in the primary, ... I will vote for the Republican I can best live with," Elyn M., who identifies as a moderate Democrat, said in response to a reader callout made by Axios Atlanta reporter Emma Hurt.

The big picture: For weeks, Democrats from President Biden on down have been sharpening their 2022 midterm message to focus explicitly on making the election a referendum on the MAGA movement and its candidates. 

Biden himself coined the term "ultra-MAGA" recently, but it's not just Democrats.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas took aim at the ultra-MAGA candidates in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

He backed candidates Trump opposed, including Josh Mandel in Ohio (who lost to Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance) and David McCormick over Trump-backed Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, where election officials continue to count ballots as Oz clings to a small lead.

Overall, Trump has more wins than losses this cycle, including Mastriano's victory in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary.

The backdrop: The progressive organization MoveOn recently announced "Us-vs.-MAGA" — a new $30 million effort this cycle to boost Democrats and take down Trump-backed candidates in over a dozen statewide and House races.

The group is also getting involved in secretaries of state and gubernatorial races, highlighting the importance of installing fair elections officials, with plans to bundle $1 million for each of those statewide candidates they end up endorsing.

“It’s about all of us versus MAGA. I’m not just talking about Trump, but the disease within the GOP that has taken over," MoveOn Executive Director Rahna Epting told Axios recently.

Larry M., who voted early in the Georgia Republican primary, told Emma Hurt he was "armed with a list of the relevant endorsements from Trump with the specific intention of voting AGAINST them. My list was shared with friends and family."

Rise of ultra-MAGA right could play into Dems’ hands

The rise of far-right GOP candidates has some Republicans considering voting Democratic this fall.

Illustration of a name tag, with a Democratic Party donkey symbol instead of a name, changing to a Republican Party elephant symbol.

Republican Party

GOP Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.

The rise of far-right Republican candidates has some Republicans considering voting Democratic this fall — and some Democrats trying to engineer the rise of ultra-MAGA candidates they feel will be easier to defeat in a general election.Why it matters: Embracing unorthodox voting strategies illustrates the concern both parties have about ultra-conservative candidates competing in high-stakes campaigns for governor and U.S. Senate.

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Stories

Republicans parade Georgia's record early turnout

First look: Latino non-registered voters not keen on either party

Rise of ultra-MAGA right could play into Dems’ hands

Scoop: Biden preps high-stakes police reform executive order

Men dominate GOP messaging over abortion

Newsletter editions

Axios 2018: Election Day nerves — Trump doesn't help GOP on economy — What it means for 2020

Axios 2018: Democrats aren't running the table — Their biggest problem — Suburban women and gun control

Axios 2018: Republicans are getting nervous about the House — GOP bright spots — Beto's battle

Axios 2018: A midterm split — Axios 8 update — College students swear they'll vote

Axios 2018: The Kavanaugh cash surge — Pay attention to Kansas — Thousands have already voted