1 big thing: The Kavanaugh cash surge

A crowd of anti-Kavanaugh protesters on the Supreme Court steps

2. Pay attention to this Kansas House race

Congressman Kevin Yoder at a subcommittee hearing

3. Ad of the week: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida

4. Over 180,000 people have already voted in the 2018 midterms

5. Trail pic of the week: Jeff Johnson

Minnesota governor candidate Jeff Johnson speaks at a Trump rally

We're four weeks out from the Nov. 6 election. 

Election

Axios 2018

1 big thing: Republicans are getting nervous about the House

2. Some GOP bright spots

3. Ad of the week: Ben and Jerry's for Democrats

4. Wave watch: Midterm interest spikes among Dems

5. Axios 8 for 2018: Beto still faces an uphill battle

6. Trail pic of the week: Don Jr. in West Virginia

We're two weeks out from the Nov. 6 midterm elections. 

1 big thing: Axios 8 update — Democrats aren't running the table

A map of the United States with the Axios 8 states highlighted

2. Democrats' big challenge: white men without college degrees

3. Ad of the week: "Stop the Trumpadas"  

4. Tom Steyer: It's a "failed year" if Dems don't flip the House

5. Suburban women breaking for Dems on gun control

6. What the 2006 and 2010 midterms can tell us about 2018

7. Trail pic of the week: Will Ferrell knocking doors in GA

We're one week out from the Nov. 6 midterm elections. 🚨🚨🚨

1 big thing: Election Day nerves

Exclusive poll: Trump gets credit on the economy, Republicans don't

What a midterms split would mean for 2020

Ad of the week: Trump's infamous caravan ad

Early voting numbers have skyrocketed

Democratic women have a better shot at the House

Trail pic of the week: Ted Cruz in Texas

🗳️ Happy Election Day! It's finally here. Make time to vote, and bring your friends. 🗳️

1 big thing: A midterm split

2. Axios 8 for 2018 update

3. A low-turnout warning for Dems

4. College students swear they'll vote this time

5. Ad of the week: Peter Roskam in IL

6. By the numbers: Latino voters in the 2018 midterms

7. Trail pic of the week

We're three weeks out from the Nov. 6 election.

National

Mayors and gun-safety advocates are increasingly showing their willingness to name and shame gunmakers.

The big picture: In 2021 alone, four manufacturers accounted for over half of the recovered guns used in crimes across 31 cities, according to a new Everytown for Gun Safety analysis shared first with Axios. 

“Mayors are on the frontlines of our nation’s gun violence epidemic and that’s why we won’t shy away from naming those who make the guns that are killing our communities,” said Mayor Quinton Lucas of Kansas City, Missouri, who is a co-chair of Mayors Against Illegal Guns, a coalition of mayors working with Everytown to end gun violence. 

Axios has reached out to the four manufacturers named by the report — Glock, Smith & Wesson, Taurus, and Ruger —  but has not heard back.

Driving the news: A group of mayors revealed the top gun manufacturers and other fresh data that they've collected over a five-year period at the annual U.S. Conference of Mayors Winter Meeting in D.C. 

Everytown for Gun Safety analyzed the dataset of guns used in crimes that were recovered in 31 cities between 2017 and 2021.

By the numbers: Between 2020 and 2021, there was a significant rise in two types of recovered guns: 

The number of trafficked guns (those bought legally and then sold illegally) increased by nearly 50%. 

The number of recovered ghost guns — which are untraceable, unregistered, and privately assembled via a 3D printer or homemade kit — roughly tripled. 

Zoom out: More than 25% of the traced guns crossed state lines before being used in a crime.

Advocates write in the new report that "if these four manufacturers took action on their own, the national impact [to reduce trafficking] could be substantial."

What they're saying: Nick Suplina, Senior Vice President of Law & Policy at Everytown for Gun Safety, said that in order to stop gun crimes, “[W]e can’t just focus on the criminals — we also need to shine a light on irresponsible gun makers who are turning a blind eye to their role in fueling America’s gun violence crisis."

"We won't shy away": Mayors are shaming gunmakers

“Mayors are on the frontlines of our nation’s gun violence epidemic," said the mayor of Kansas City, Missouri.

Quinton Lucas, mayor of Kansas City, speaks during a 2021 event with President Biden. Photo: Chase Castor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Guns

Politics & Policy

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is running for California’s U.S. Senate seat in 2024, he announced Thursday.

Why it matters: Schiff is the second House Democrat so far to launch a campaign for the seat held by 89-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who has not yet announced her retirement but is widely expected to do so.

What he's saying:  "Today's Republican Party is gutting the middle class. Threatening our democracy. They aren't going to stop. We have to stop them," Schiff said in a video announcing his bid.

"That's why I'm running for the U.S. Senate. The struggle isn't over. Not for me, not for you, not for our country. Together we can and will win this fight."

The backdrop: The Democratic primary is already shaping up to be a clear opportunity for progressives to shore up power in the Senate and provide backup to Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

Rep. Katie Porter, a voice of the progressive left and Warren ally, announced earlier this month that she’s seeking the Senate seat. 

Rep. Barbara Lee, former chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, shared her plans to do the same with her colleagues in the Congressional Black Caucus, as well. 

Rep. Ro Khanna, another progressive who co-chaired Sanders' presidential campaign, could also jump in the race. 

Zoom in: Schiff, from Los Angeles County, cemented his national profile as a stalwart critic of former President Donald Trump after leading the country through his impeachment trial and months of serving on the Jan. 6 House Select Committee.

Whoever wins could stay in this seat for decades: The senior senator has been in office since 1992.

Feinstein — often at odds with progressives — fended off a challenger in 2018, but the left-wing of the Democratic Party has been trying to push her out for years.

Even California's Democratic Party declined to endorse Sen. Feinstein in that primary.

Editor's note: This story was corrected to reflect that Schiff is the second House Democrat to officially launch his campaign.

Anti-Trump stalwart Rep. Adam Schiff enters California Senate race

Schiff is the latest House Democrat to launch a campaign for the seat held by Dianne Feinstein.

Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Adam Schiff

Rep. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Adam Schiff" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/18/adam-schiff-jan-6-panel-trump-criminal-referrals" data-vars-content-id="207e8cb1-ab5b-4770-aaf4-4d5a106df58b" data-vars-headline="Anti-Trump stalwart Rep. Adam Schiff enters California Senate race" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/18/adam-schiff-jan-6-panel-trump-criminal-referrals" target="_self">Adam Schiff</a> (D-Calif.) is running for California’s U.S. Senate seat in 2024, he announced Thursday.Why it matters: Schiff is the second House Democrat so far to launch a campaign for the seat held by 89-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who has not yet announced her retirement but is widely expected to do so.

Sneak Peek

Axios Sneak Peek

The Moderate PAC, an organization of centrist Democrats, plans to raise $20 million to defend a handful of Democratic lawmakers — as well as open-seat candidates — in 2024 primary fights with progressives, Axios has learned. 

Why it matters: The PAC is looking to scare off progressive groups like Justice Democrats from targeting moderates or tipping the scales for any seat in which an established Democrat might retire.

With only four seats to reclaim the majority, the group wants to avoid what they see as unforced errors.

That includes losing Oregon’s 5th Congressional District in 2022 after progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner knocked out incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader — only to be defeated in the general election.

What they're saying: "We’ve built a PAC and Independent Expenditure to strengthen Moderate House Democrats,” said Ty Strong, the president of The Moderate PAC. 

“These members often face primary challenges from the far-left, while also facing competitive general elections.”

“We’ve seen the Republican Party cannibalize its moderate faction,” he said. “Replicating this on the Democratic side would be a big mistake.”

The other side: "The corporate-backed establishment will stop at nothing to prevent more nurses, bartenders, principals, community organizers and regular people from entering the Democratic Party in Congress," Justice Democrats executive director Alexandra Rojas told Axios.

"They would rather buy elections than let working-class progressives even run. They will do everything in their power to make themselves richer at the expense of robbing poor and working-class Americans."

The big picture: The Republican Party learned this cycle that picking their most conservative candidates — even those who received the endorsement from former President Trump — was a losing campaign strategy. 

In recent years, Democrats have avoided a similar civil war — for the most part. 

Progressive groups like Justice Democrats were much more active in endorsing non-incumbents in 2018 than in the last two congressional cycles.

While the group only endorsed a handful of non-incumbents in 2022, the prospect of a primary challenge contributed to the decision to retire by some of the 22 House Democrats incumbents that didn't contest in 2022. 

Given the powers of incumbency, Democrats want to convince as many members as possible to stay on the ballot in 2024. 

Flashback: In the fourth quarter of last year’s campaign, the Moderate PAC raised some $1.3 million across its PAC and 501(c)4 to help defend Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Don Davis (D-N.C.). Both won their races.

Between the lines: The group’s proposed $20 million is a significant increase from last cycle’s spending.

They hope to attract donors by promising to defend centrists like Golden and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), while also jumping into open primaries. 

What we’re watching: Last year, Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) fended off a  challenge from Nina Turner, a former Bernie Sanders aide, in the special election to replace now-Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge. 

The group plans to support Brown, who had come under fire from progressives, yet again.

Moderate PAC prepares to flex against progressives

The organization of centrist Democrats plans to raise $20 million.

Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez campaigns in Cleveland in 2021 with former congressional candidate Nina Turner. Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

Elections

The Moderate PAC, an organization of centrist Democrats, plans to raise $20 million to defend a handful of Democratic lawmakers — as well as open-seat candidates — in 2024 primary fights with progressives, Axios has learned. Why it matters: The PAC is looking to scare off progressive groups like Justice Democrats from targeting moderates or tipping the scales for any seat in which an established Democrat might retire.

While Democrats in Washington have been in near-lockstep under President Biden, New York Democrats are revealing the intra-party ideological chasms that could define Kathy Hochul's governorship.

Why it matters: Gov. Hochul’s uncomfortably close re-election wouldn’t have been possible without the help of progressives’ 11th-hour campaign to get her to victory.

But progressives handed Hochul an unprecedented defeat this week when they rejected her pick for the state’s top judge over concerns about his stance on abortion and labor unions.

The backdrop: New York lawmakers voted against Hector LaSalle, a Democratic appellate judge who would've been the first Latino to be the state's top judge.

The state Senate Judiciary Committee rejected LaSalle after a five-hour confirmation hearing and months of criticism from progressives, labor unions, and reproductive rights leaders. 

"Serious concerns" have been raised about LaSalle's record on "reproductive choice, discrimination, immigration and protecting domestic violence victims," Senate Judiciary Chairman Brad Hoylman-Sigal said at the hearing.

Zoom in: The rejection from the committee prevents the measure from advancing to the Senate floor, but Gov. Hochul is looking to the state constitution for next steps, as it requires the "advice and consent" of the state Senate when appointing the chief judge. 

"Several senators stated how they were going to vote before the hearing even began — including those who were recently given seats on the newly expanded judiciary committee," Hochul told Gothamist. 

The big picture: Labor and reproductive rights groups have been criticizing Hochul's choice for months. 

LaSalle joined a majority ruling in 2015 that allowed an employer's defamation lawsuit against union leaders. In 2017, he joined a decision that ruled part of the state's investigation into anti-abortion crisis pregnancy centers was unconstitutional. 

In his 10-minute opening statement at the confirmation hearing, LaSalle said that he supports labor unions' right to organize and that he is personally pro-choice. 

What they're saying:  “New York deserves a Chief Judge who can make history without contradicting our communities’ values or putting our rights at risk. We deserve so much better,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wrote in an email to supporters last week.

“Justice Hector LaSalle has unfortunately shown a willingness to put the interests of corporations ahead of workers, which is disturbing in a state with a long history of supporting workers’ rights,” New York State AFL-CIO president Mario Cilento said.

“Like every judge, I know that not everyone agrees with every ruling, but I can promise you that, in every case, I have sought and will continue to seek to give everyone a fair shake, to listen to arguments carefully, to do my best to apply the law to the facts before us, and to work with my colleagues to reach a fair and just result,” LaSalle told the committee.

Zoom out: Throughout the week before the election, the Working Families Party — an outside group that champions progressive labor causes — spent half-a-million dollars, sent 2 million texts, and made 250,000 calls to help Hochul and stop her GOP challenger, Rep. Lee Zeldin, per Politico.

What to watch: Gov. Hochul could sue the Senate committee to get LaSalle in front of the full chamber for a vote, and she hasn't ruled that out, telling reporters earlier this week: "[W]e're certainly looking at all of our options."

New York Dems risk their truce over Kathy Hochul judgeship fight

The moderate governor needs her left-wing colleagues' support but the intraparty battle is on.

Photo: Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

Kathy Hochul

While Democrats in Washington have been in near-lockstep under President Biden, New York Democrats are revealing the intra-party ideological chasms that could define <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Kathy Hochul&#x27;s governorship" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/08/10/kathy-hochul-new-york-cuomo-governor" data-vars-content-id="9f9e8795-86c9-48de-a7ce-93ddf817dabc" data-vars-headline="New York Dems risk their truce over Kathy Hochul judgeship fight" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/08/10/kathy-hochul-new-york-cuomo-governor" target="_self">Kathy Hochul&#x27;s governorship</a>.Why it matters: Gov. Hochul’s uncomfortably close re-election wouldn’t have been possible without the help of progressives’ 11th-hour campaign to get her to victory.

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego announced his 2024 bid for U.S. Senate on Monday, launching a long-expected challenge to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema for her seat.

Why it matters: The liberal Marine veteran’s face-off against the newly-Independent senator has the potential to split the vote in a general election and dilute a Democratic candidate’s strength in a cycle with few Senate bright spots for the party.

Sinema has yet to confirm whether she'll run for re-election.

The big picture: Last cycle’s results showed that Arizona still prefers moderate candidates, as voters rejected those seen as too outside the political norm.

The state is pretty evenly split among Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, which has rewarded someone like Sen. Sinema, who's resisted being pulled to the left by her colleagues.

Newsweek first reported Gallego's Senate announcement plans.

Zoom in: Gallego has been critical of Sinema, most recently saying that she put “her own interests ahead of getting things done for Arizonans” when she changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Independent in December. 

Sinema has earned praise from Republicans and ire from Democrats as she often wielded outsized power, along with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, in what was an evenly divided Senate.

The backdrop: But Gallego has also been critical of the rest of the Democratic Party, particularly for, at times, under-investing in Latino voters and ceding some ground to the GOP with this core constituency. 

As chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ (CHC) campaign arm, BOLD PAC, Rep. Gallego helped elect nine new Latino House Democrats in part by spending $6M on supporting Latino incumbents and candidates — the group’s largest independent expenditure in its 21 years. 

What they're saying: In a phone interview with Axios earlier this month, Rep. Gallego talked about some of those intra-party concerns from the 2022 midterms.

"The danger wasn’t that Latinos were going to vote for Republicans, but that you’d have a lot of these different types of PACs that normally would invest in Latino voters no longer investing in Latino voters, and that creates a system where only conservative Latinos come out and vote," he said.

"We've been able to beat that back among Democratic organizations and allies and the party, but it was not that easy to do."

What to watch: Gallego was re-elected as BOLD PAC chairman for the 2024 cycle, and while the CHC's rules don't bar him from serving in that role while also seeking a Senate seat, it's unlikely he'd be able to find time for both.

Despite speculation, Phoenix Mayor (and Gallego's ex-wife) Kate Gallego told Axios she does not intend to run for the Arizona Senate seat or for Ruben's House seat.

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Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race

The liberal Marine vet has been openly critical of the state's centrist senator.

Ruben Gallego (L) and Kyrsten Sinema (R). Photos: Getty Images

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego announced his 2024 bid for U.S. Senate on Monday, launching a long-expected challenge to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Sen. Kyrsten Sinema" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/11/sinema-2024-independent-democrats" data-vars-content-id="c03f3ca7-8394-41da-bac5-8b305e87c87b" data-vars-headline="Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/11/sinema-2024-independent-democrats" target="_self">Sen. Kyrsten Sinema</a> for her seat.Why it matters: The liberal Marine veteran’s face-off against the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="newly-Independent senator" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/09/kyrsten-sinema-independent-senate" data-vars-content-id="c03f3ca7-8394-41da-bac5-8b305e87c87b" data-vars-headline="Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/09/kyrsten-sinema-independent-senate" target="_self">newly-Independent senator</a> has the potential to split the vote in a general election and dilute a Democratic candidate’s strength in a cycle with few Senate bright spots for the party.

Alexi McCammond

Stories

Anti-Trump stalwart Rep. Adam Schiff enters California Senate race

Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race

New York Dems risk their truce over Kathy Hochul judgeship fight

Moderate PAC prepares to flex against progressives

"We won't shy away": Mayors are shaming gunmakers

Newsletter editions

Axios 2018: Election Day nerves — Trump doesn't help GOP on economy — What it means for 2020

Axios 2018: Democrats aren't running the table — Their biggest problem — Suburban women and gun control

Axios 2018: Republicans are getting nervous about the House — GOP bright spots — Beto's battle

Axios 2018: A midterm split — Axios 8 update — College students swear they'll vote

Axios 2018: The Kavanaugh cash surge — Pay attention to Kansas — Thousands have already voted