1 big thing: The Kavanaugh cash surge

A crowd of anti-Kavanaugh protesters on the Supreme Court steps

2. Pay attention to this Kansas House race

Congressman Kevin Yoder at a subcommittee hearing

3. Ad of the week: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida

4. Over 180,000 people have already voted in the 2018 midterms

5. Trail pic of the week: Jeff Johnson

Minnesota governor candidate Jeff Johnson speaks at a Trump rally

We're four weeks out from the Nov. 6 election. 

National

Axios 2018

1 big thing: Republicans are getting nervous about the House

2. Some GOP bright spots

3. Ad of the week: Ben and Jerry's for Democrats

4. Wave watch: Midterm interest spikes among Dems

5. Axios 8 for 2018: Beto still faces an uphill battle

6. Trail pic of the week: Don Jr. in West Virginia

We're two weeks out from the Nov. 6 midterm elections. 

1 big thing: Axios 8 update — Democrats aren't running the table

A map of the United States with the Axios 8 states highlighted

2. Democrats' big challenge: white men without college degrees

3. Ad of the week: "Stop the Trumpadas"  

4. Tom Steyer: It's a "failed year" if Dems don't flip the House

5. Suburban women breaking for Dems on gun control

6. What the 2006 and 2010 midterms can tell us about 2018

7. Trail pic of the week: Will Ferrell knocking doors in GA

We're one week out from the Nov. 6 midterm elections. 🚨🚨🚨

1 big thing: Election Day nerves

Exclusive poll: Trump gets credit on the economy, Republicans don't

What a midterms split would mean for 2020

Ad of the week: Trump's infamous caravan ad

Early voting numbers have skyrocketed

Democratic women have a better shot at the House

Trail pic of the week: Ted Cruz in Texas

🗳️ Happy Election Day! It's finally here. Make time to vote, and bring your friends. 🗳️

1 big thing: A midterm split

2. Axios 8 for 2018 update

3. A low-turnout warning for Dems

4. College students swear they'll vote this time

5. Ad of the week: Peter Roskam in IL

6. By the numbers: Latino voters in the 2018 midterms

7. Trail pic of the week

We're three weeks out from the Nov. 6 election.

Some North Carolina swing voters who'd lost faith in President Biden are expressing a renewed affinity for his leadership, according to our latest Engagious/Schlesinger focus groups. 

Why it matters: If that trend holds, it could benefit Democrats in the November midterms.

The big picture: Democrats' passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, big drops in gas prices after spikes earlier this year, and the cooling of inflation (before this week's unexpected hot reading) are giving Biden what amounts to a second chance.

In speeches, social media messaging and campaign ads, Biden and his party have emphasized the bill's provisions that increase taxes on large corporations, lower prescription drug costs and tackle climate change — insisting it will lower inflation and the deficit. 

The landmark legislation was passed just weeks before the president delivered on something else his base voters have been waiting for: canceling student loan debt.

Driving the news: Seven of 11 North Carolinians who participated in two online focus groups conducted by Engagious/Schlesinger said they're feeling better about the way things are going after these developments.

Two of the others said where they live, prices are still high and they haven't yet felt real relief.

All 11 said they don't regret voting for Biden. None said they would support former President Trump in a theoretical 2024 rematch.

How it works: The groups were comprised of eight independents, two registered Democrats and one registered Republican, all of whom supported Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020.

While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.

What they're saying: Jennifer L. said she got "nervous for a little bit" during Biden's presidency because "he wasn't really accomplishing the things he was setting out to accomplish." Now, thanks to readily available COVID tests and lower unemployment, she thinks "things are turning up and looking better than they did."

"We are seeing some relief in gas prices. I feel like [Biden] understands more of what's happening and how it is impacting the people he represents," said Marie B.

Kayla L. mentioned student debt relief and agreed that lower gas prices are personally helpful because her husband drives 45 minutes to work each way. "We're starting to see what he promised us, at least a little bit," she said. 

Rachid O., who said he drives a lot for work, thinks the president "is more engaged than before."

Theo G. cited Biden's success in cutting a deal on the Inflation Reduction Act with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as one of the president's key strengths. "It seems that he's able to bring people ... together and then make some changes."

Between the lines: The Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade and Trump's re-emergence in daily headlines turned several of the participants away from the GOP.

That's helped reposition Biden in their eyes as an alternative to a power structure they actively don't want, rather than a status quo leader who didn't live up to their early hopes.

Some participants said they'd vote for Democrat Cheri Beasley over Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in the state's U.S. Senate race — simply because Trump has endorsed Budd. "I would probably be more inclined not to vote for them. That would kind of raise my suspicions on that candidate," said Stephanie M.

The bottom line: "Among the hardest things to do in politics is win back supporters who’ve lost confidence in you, but for the first time in Biden’s presidency, we’re hearing the sounds of a nascent rebound," said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. 

But, but, but: Biden's approval rating remains underwater in North Carolina. And some of the participants said they're still feeling the effects of inflation in their counties.

If economic conditions grow worse before November, that could translate to votes for Republicans. 

https://engagious.com/swingvoters/

http://www.engagious.com/

Focus groups: Biden's North Carolina bounceback

Recent legislative successes in Washington are boosting Dems.

Illustration of a trampoline in the shape of North Carolina. 

North Carolina

Some North Carolina swing voters who&#x27;d lost faith in President Biden are expressing a renewed affinity for his leadership, according to our latest <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Engagious/Schlesinger" data-vars-click-url="https://engagious.com/swingvoters/" data-vars-content-id="075cf368-7411-429d-a885-7204907d6fb3" data-vars-headline="Focus groups: Biden&#x27;s North Carolina bounceback" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://engagious.com/swingvoters/" target="_blank">Engagious/Schlesinger</a> focus groups. Why it matters: If that trend holds, it could benefit Democrats in the November midterms.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Democrats in close races are increasingly leaning on doctors to drive messaging on abortion, betting their credibility will appeal to bipartisan audiences and help center a polarizing political debate around health and safety.

Why it matters: Health care professionals aren't your typical political surrogates, but the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade reversal has changed the midterms playbook for both parties. 

The latest: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) introduced a national 15-week abortion ban Tuesday in a bid to unite Republicans around a common position, weeks after arguing the issue should be left to the states.

The bill uses the non-medical phrase "late-term abortion" in its title and pledges to "protect pain-capable unborn children," in some instances citing contested medical assertions.

Democrats see doctors as trusted voices who can help in the political fight against abortion bans by convincing voters that GOP positions aren't medically sound. 

What's happening: Some doctors enraged by the high court's Dobbs decision that reversed Roe say they felt compelled to appear in political ads this year for the first time.

Emily Hyatt — an emergency medicine doctor who lives in Kansas but works in Missouri — told Axios she recently volunteered to help Rep. Sharice Davids' (D-Kan.) campaign when it was seeking a doctor for an abortion ad. 

With less than 24 hours' notice, Hyatt found a colleague to cover her ER shift so she could film. "I've always been a person who doesn't want to talk politics," she said. "But this is the hill I will die on."

The big picture: Kansas became ground zero for post-Roe politics after voters rejected an anti-abortion constitutional amendment that would've stripped protections from the state's constitution.

Now doctors and nurses are weighing into the abortion debate in contests across Georgia, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Tennessee, New Hampshire and Hawaii. 

The dynamic is especially pronounced in governor's races, where abortion rights are on the line.

State of play: The Democratic nominees for governor in Hawaii, New Hampshire and Tennessee are all physicians who have made abortion a central pillar of their campaigns.

In Georgia, local doctors convened with the state Democratic Party last month "to speak on the dangers Gov. Brian Kemp’s extreme abortion ban poses" to the health care system and providers.

A group of doctors called out Pennsylvania's Republican nominee for governor, Doug Mastriano, on the issue last month, with one physician flatly stating that the candidate's position on abortion "goes against established medicine."

Between the lines: Some Democratic campaigns have seized on abortion bans that would criminalize health care providers who continue to perform the procedure.

The Democratic Governors Association's latest ad against Michigan's Republican nominee Tudor Dixon attacks her for supporting the state’s 1931 abortion ban, emphasizing its penalties for doctors and nurses. 

A group backed by DGA highlighted the same issue in an early general election ad against Wisconsin's GOP nominee Tim Michels, citing his support for an 1849 law that "jailed doctors" who performed abortions. 

What they're saying: Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), the only pro-abortion rights woman doctor in Congress, told Axios she sees herself as a "secret weapon" for Democrats — particularly when some Republicans "are looking to paint Democrats as barbarians."  

"I feel like I am holding the line here, and my voice is necessary because it carries a credibility when I can say that as a pediatrician, I have been in the room," she said.

The other side: There are over a dozen GOP doctors in Congress, but Republicans in competitive races are generally steering away from the abortion debate as polls suggest it could drive Democratic turnout.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, describes himself as "strongly pro-life" but opposes criminal penalties for patients and doctors who perform abortions.

Democrats' surprise surrogates

Typically apolitical doctors say they felt compelled to appear in political ads this year for the first time.

Illustration of a caduceus combined with a microphone at the top

Abortion

Denver

Axios Denver

Colorado GOP congressional candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer scrubbed her hardline anti-abortion stance from her campaign website, part of a broader overhaul to moderate her image.

Why it matters: It's longstanding practice for candidates in both parties to modify their rhetoric for general-election audiences, but this year's messaging gymnastics are next-level, Axios' Alexi McCammond and Andrew Solender write.

State of play: The Supreme Court's June reversal of Roe v. Wade makes abortion a centerpiece issue in Colorado. And Democrats sense momentum on the issue after big wins in a Kansas abortion referendum and a special House election in New York.

Zoom in: In Colorado's hotly contested and newly drawn 8th District — where polls show Republicans can win — Kirkmeyer removed language saying she would "defend the sanctity of life" and took down a video of her speaking at an anti-abortion rally earlier this year.

The positions helped the Weld County state senator emerge from a crowded GOP primary contest, but now could hurt her in the November midterm, particularly in a district with a large Latino population that supports abortion access.

What they're saying: Kirkmeyer spokesperson Alan Philp told Axios the changes came after the campaign did "a complete redesign" of its website. 

Other issues removed were education, cost of living, agriculture and more. The site now just highlights her stances on spending, energy and crime. "We are focused on the three issues in which voters have expressed the most interest," Philp added.

Kirkmeyer now labels herself as "Colorado tough" instead of as a "conservative fighter."

Between the lines: Kirkmeyer is a prominent voice against abortion access and says she "unambiguously" believes life begins at conception. 

She wrote in a voter questionnaire: "What kind of nation and a people do not defend the most vulnerable and innocent among us? I think this issue goes to the very moral and christian foundation our country was built on."

The other side: Her Democratic opponent, state Rep. Yadira Caraveo, is a pediatrician who supports abortion access and backed a law earlier this year to codify it.

Kirkmeyer's "spent her 30 years as a politician pushing her own extreme agenda that she knows will harm hard-working Colorado families — which is exactly why she is now running away from her own long held, extremist anti-abortion views," Caraveo said in a statement.

GOP candidate Kirkmeyer scrubs abortion stance from campaign website

It's common for candidates to modify their rhetoric for general-election audiences, but this year's messaging gymnastics are next-level.

Illustration of an elephant trunk holding a pink rubber eraser.

Colorado GOP congressional candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer scrubbed her hardline anti-abortion stance from her campaign website, part of a broader overhaul to moderate her image.Why it matters: It&#x27;s longstanding practice for candidates in both parties to modify their rhetoric for general-election audiences, but this year&#x27;s messaging gymnastics are next-level, Axios&#x27; Alexi McCammond and Andrew Solender <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="write" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/31/republicans-midterms?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&amp;stream=top" data-vars-content-id="81259873-ccf6-4fc3-a5da-4a4c747d6883" data-vars-headline="GOP candidate Kirkmeyer scrubs abortion stance from campaign website" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/31/republicans-midterms?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&amp;stream=top" target="_self">write</a>.

News

Politics

Axios Denver, anchored by John Frank and Alayna Alvarez, is here to help readers get smarter, faster on the most consequential news and developments unfolding in their own backyard.

Spending is ramping up for one of the closest House races in the U.S., a California contest that pits a Republican incumbent against a Hispanic Democratic challenger. 

Why it matters: Republican Rep. David Valadao's seat is one of a handful of contests that could decide which party controls Congress.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter lists California's 22nd district as a GOP toss-up.

Driving the news: Bold PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm, is launching a $250,000 digital ad campaign supporting Democratic nominee Rudy Salas against Valadao in California's 22nd district. Salas has served in the California Assembly for five terms. 

The digital ad — which focuses on health care and capping insulin costs — will run through Election Day in November. 

House Majority PAC, the Democrats' outside group that supports congressional candidates, announced Monday an additional investment of over $300,000 for TV ads supporting Salas.  

During the primary, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) placed attack ads against Valadao over things like health care. They'd previously booked over $3 million in ad reservations for the Bakersfield and Fresno media markets.

What they're saying: “This is a hefty investment and the choice of this district, which is crucial to Democrats holding onto the House, shows that Bold PAC will continue to be a key player in the midterm elections,” Victoria McGroary, Bold PAC executive director, told Axios. 

The other side: A Republicans super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has booked $3 million in ad reservations in the fall to help Valadao. The National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved over $4 million for ads for this race, too. 

Hispanic Dems pump more money into key California race

Republican Rep. David Valadao's seat is one of a handful of contests that could decide which party controls Congress.

Illustration of a donkey holding a big hundred dollar bill in its mouth

Midterm elections 2022

Spending is ramping up for one of the closest House races in the U.S., a California contest that pits a Republican incumbent against a Hispanic Democratic challenger. Why it matters: Republican Rep. David Valadao&#x27;s seat is one of a handful of contests that could decide which party controls Congress.

Vice President Kamala Harris is ramping up campaign road trips to turn out young voters and voters of color for the midterms — stopping this week in Wisconsin and South Carolina but so far without scheduled appearances with key Democratic nominees on the ballot.

Driving the news: On Thursday, Harris is set to appear in Milwaukee at an event for the Democratic Attorneys General Association. She has not announced any joint appearances with Gov. Tony Evers, who is up for re-election, or Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, the Democratic nominee challenging GOP Sen. Ron Johnson.

On Tuesday, Harris is scheduled to speak at South Carolina State University in Orangeburg, S.C., her sixth visit this year to a historically black college or university. 

She will also participate in a roundtable discussion with student leaders at Claflin University that day.

Why it matters: The White House is seeking to deploy Harris in ways she can be most helpful. That's meant engaging targeted constituencies around issues like reproductive rights, student loan relief and climate change.

She told students at the University at Buffalo in New York last week that the administration acted on clean energy legislation because "we heard you" demand that leaders "take action on the climate crisis like the crisis it is."

She also held a rally at the University of Illinois at Chicago last week, and recently addressed a gathering of interns and young Hill professionals at an event for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute. 

Harris' approval rating is underwater in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average (36% favorable / 51.2% unfavorable) 

Turning out Latino voters will be critical to Democrats' longterm success beyond November. 

A White House official told Axios that the VP is also taking time to meet with local Latino elected officials and community leaders while in Milwaukee — hoping her engagements will help shore up Democrats' otherwise waning support from this constituency. 

The state of play: There are several marquee races in Wisconsin, but no real competitive contests or pickups for Democrats in South Carolina this cycle. 

Former Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham is running for governor in South Carolina against Republican incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster. 

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) beat a Trump-backed challenger in her June primary.

But Democratic candidates in competitive statewide races, like Barnes in Wisconsin, face a dilemma over whether it's politically advantageous to campaign with either the president or vice president — both of whom suffer low approval in many battleground states.

 Barnes didn't appear with President Biden when he visited the state on Labor Day, but Gov. Evers did. 

VP Harris ramps up midterms travel to focus on young voters

She's focusing on young voters and voters of color in key states.

Vice President Harris in a navy blue suit standing behind a podium with the American flag behind her.

Vice President Kamala Harris during a rally at the UIC campus. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

2022 elections

Vice President Kamala Harris is ramping up campaign road trips to turn out young voters and voters of color for the midterms — stopping this week in Wisconsin and South Carolina but so far without scheduled appearances with key Democratic nominees on the ballot.Driving the news: On Thursday, Harris is set to appear in Milwaukee at an event for the Democratic Attorneys General Association. She has not announced any joint appearances with Gov. Tony Evers, who is up for re-election, or Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, the Democratic nominee challenging GOP Sen. Ron Johnson.

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Alexi McCammond

Stories

VP Harris ramps up midterms travel to focus on young voters

Focus groups: Biden's North Carolina bounceback

Democrats' surprise surrogates

Hispanic Dems pump more money into key California race

GOP candidate Kirkmeyer scrubs abortion stance from campaign website

Newsletter editions

Axios 2018: Election Day nerves — Trump doesn't help GOP on economy — What it means for 2020

Axios 2018: Democrats aren't running the table — Their biggest problem — Suburban women and gun control

Axios 2018: Republicans are getting nervous about the House — GOP bright spots — Beto's battle

Axios 2018: A midterm split — Axios 8 update — College students swear they'll vote

Axios 2018: The Kavanaugh cash surge — Pay attention to Kansas — Thousands have already voted