National

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is hinting Ukrainians may suffer a loss of their government if not their country — but expressly said neither would endure.

Why it matters: The world has rallied to Ukraine's cause, but the chief diplomat's carefully chosen words follow a report allied officials are concerned about the Ukrainian government's line of succession — and the possible need for a government-in-exile.

Political leaders are trying to brace supporters for a tough outcome — at least for now.

Over time, the pressure of external sanctions and a Western-backed insurgency within Ukraine would make it hard for Russia to hold the country.

A State Department spokesperson declined to expand upon Blinken's public comments.

What they're saying: "Vladimir Putin has, unfortunately, the capacity with the sheer manpower that he has in Ukraine, and the overmatch that he has, the ability to keep grinding things down against incredibly resilient and courageous Ukrainians," Blinken told CNN on Sunday from Moldova, his latest stop on a regional tour.

He was quick to add: "Just winning a battle is not winning the war. Taking a city does not mean he's taking the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people."

"On the contrary, he is destined to lose. The Ukrainian people have demonstrated that they will not allow themselves to be subjugated to Vladimir Putin or to Russia's rule, but it could take it could take some time."

Blinken addressed the line-of-succession concerns on CBS's "Face the Nation," after a New York Times report raised the issue on Saturday.

"The Ukrainians have plans in place that I'm not going to talk about or get into any details on to make sure that there is what we would call continuity of government one way or another. And let me leave it at that," Blinken said.

Blinken walks tightrope with Ukraine assessment

Officials are trying to temper public optimism with planning for long war, talk of Zelensky succession.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is seen Sunday listening to the Moldovan foreign minister.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken listens to Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Sunday. Photo: Olivier Douliery/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Axios explains Ukraine

Russia

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is hinting Ukrainians may suffer a loss of their government if not their country — but expressly said neither would endure.Why it matters: The world has rallied to Ukraine&#x27;s cause, but the chief diplomat&#x27;s carefully chosen words follow <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/us/politics/russia-ukraine-succession-zelensky.html" data-vars-content-id="09b16465-1062-4e35-8d67-c5c091f29932" data-vars-headline="Blinken walks tightrope with Ukraine assessment" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/us/politics/russia-ukraine-succession-zelensky.html" target="_blank">a report</a> allied officials are concerned about the Ukrainian government&#x27;s line of succession — and the possible need for a government-in-exile.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

The next four weeks — leading up to an annual Victory Day celebration in Moscow — are a crucial and intensely dangerous period in Russia's war on Ukraine, U.S. officials and others familiar with Russian military history tell Axios.

Why it matters: May 9 is a major holiday in the Russian Federation, with the country closing down each year to mark its World War II victory over the Nazis. That makes it a deadline with significant symbolism in Russian domestic politics.

Russia either may be repelled in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region by then and forced to claim false victories — or have used a brutal assault to cinch a strategic win.

Any momentum would feed a push westward toward Kyiv.

What they're saying: A senior Defense Department official told Axios on Thursday the U.S. and other allies are rushing myriad forms of military assistance to Ukraine knowing the stakes of the next month.

Separately, retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, a former infantry officer and National Security Council director of European affairs, told Axios on Sunday: "This is, actually, a bit more of a dangerous situation, more of a turning point, than anything we've seen thus far."

"Russia can achieve objectives here," said Vindman, a Ukraine-born, naturalized American citizen and Iraq combat veteran who testified at former President Trump's first impeachment trial.

"I think that, if Russia were to lose, it would be spent" and only able to hold the territory it had. "But, if they succeed, I fear, it's a recipe for a protracted war, and Russia will not stop at limited gains. Protracted war is a recipe for spillage over into, potentially, confrontation with NATO."

What we're watching: Russian forces on Friday were accused of firing a missile on civilians at a train station as they tried to flee the onslaught in the Donbas.

This weekend, the BBC and New York Times reported Russian President Vladimir Putin had consolidated control of his country's military effort under a general known for his brutality in Syria.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" that "we will continue to take every step we possibly can to help the Ukrainians succeed on the battlefield and to improve their position at the negotiating table."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pleaded for all forms of weaponry ahead of the Russian assault.

"We propose to the West and to NATO a fair deal," he said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "You provide us with everything that we need, and we fight so that you don't have to step up in the fight ... when Putin decides to test Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty."

Vindman said Ukraine needs a resupply of traditional artillery, as well as  drones and multiple-launch rocket systems.

"Why are we leaving it at a coin-flip, instead of tipping the scales heavily in Ukraine's favor and making sure they win this next battle?"

Flashback: The Kyiv Independent said on March 24 that Russian troops were being told the war must end by May 9.

It cited intelligence "from the general staff of the armed forces of Ukraine."

What's next: Support for Ukraine is a leading focus of congressional delegation trips over the Easter/Passover recess.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy took a bipartisan delegation to Poland this weekend, and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer will lead his own trip to the region before the recess ends.

May 9 Russian holiday will be pivotal, dangerous deadline

The annual WWII Victory Day commemoration is a date with significant symbolism in Russian domestic politics.

Illustration of Vladimir Putin looking into the distance, the background is made up of a distressed Russian flag. 

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Joe Biden

The next four weeks — leading up to an annual Victory Day celebration in Moscow — are a crucial and intensely dangerous period in Russia&#x27;s war on Ukraine, U.S. officials and others familiar with Russian military history tell Axios.Why it matters: May 9 is a major holiday in the Russian Federation, with the country closing down each year to mark its World War II victory over the Nazis. That makes it a deadline with significant symbolism in Russian domestic politics.

The United States has shipped over 50 million bullets — not just bigger Stinger and Javelin missiles — as it rushes lethal aid to Ukraine for its war with Russia, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: While members of Congress question the speed of the Pentagon's support for Ukraine's war effort, the Defense Department has sent a fact sheet to Capitol Hill detailing not only what it's done — but how fast.

Between the lines: According to the document, distributed Thursday, the Biden administration has supplied Ukraine with $2.4 billion in security assistance since taking office.

That includes $1.7 billion just since Russia invaded on Feb. 24.

Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems.

"Hundreds" of Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems.

Over 50 million rounds of ammunition, reportedly highly coveted by the Ukrainian Army for its close-quarter Russian encounters.

Four counter-artillery and counter-unmanned aerial system tracking radars.

Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles.

Night-vision devices, thermal imagery systems and optics.

Explosive ordnance disposal protective gear.

Medical supplies, including first aid kits.

What they're saying: "The administration is working around the clock to fulfill Ukraine's priority security assistance requests, delivering weapons from U.S. stocks when they are available, and facilitating the delivery of weapons by allies and partners when their systems better suit Ukraine's needs," the fact sheet states.

"All of the anti-armor and anti-air systems from the two packages of security assistance the president approved in March have been delivered."

👓 Go deeper: Read the fact sheet below or through this link.

Pentagon says U.S. sent 50 million bullets as part of lethal aid to Ukraine

The Pentagon is detailing its security assistance just over a month after Russia invaded.

U.S.-made Javelin anti-tank systems are seen being unloaded at Kyiv's airport before Russia's invasion.

Ukrainian servicemen load a truck with U.S.-made Javelin anti-tank missile after they arrived in Kyiv just before Russia's invasion. Photo: Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

The United States has shipped over 50 million bullets — not just bigger Stinger and Javelin missiles — as it rushes lethal aid to Ukraine for its war with Russia, Axios has learned.Why it matters: While members of Congress <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="question the speed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-end-open-question-mark-milley/" data-vars-content-id="612f6272-d794-485f-9e1c-69a830537d91" data-vars-headline="Pentagon says U.S. sent 50 million bullets as part of lethal aid to Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-end-open-question-mark-milley/" target="_blank">question the speed</a> of the Pentagon&#x27;s support for Ukraine&#x27;s war effort, the Defense Department has sent a fact sheet to Capitol Hill detailing not only what it&#x27;s done — but how fast.

Axios Sneak Peek

The Biden administration plans to accelerate the return of the federal workforce this week, as the White House seeks to show the country that in-person work can be safe, people familiar with the plans tell Axios.

Why it matters: President Biden wants to lead by example in arguing that most Americans can safely return to the workplace. Biden's team is discussing the best way to send a clear back-to-work signal to America — perhaps in the State of the Union address on Tuesday, but probably in a separate COVID speech later in March. 

"He will talk about the government leading by example — that COVID should no longer determine where people are working," an administration official told Axios.

The big picture: Nearly two years in, huge swaths of the federal workforce aren't yet back in the office. Agencies have been allowed to set their own policies, and are in various stages of return. 

Vaccinations, boosters and declining hospitalizations and deaths are making a return to shared spaces less risky and more inevitable.

The CDC loosened masking guidelines Friday — another milestone expected to ease more federal workers' return.

How we got here: A spokesperson for the White House's Office of Management and Budget says federal workers' return to their offices began stepping up late last year. A majority of workers already are back in some capacity — but that number will "substantially increase ... very soon," the official said. 

Planning for the return of in-person work has been ongoing for months, with the White House's Safer Federal Workforce Task Force coordinating with agencies on vaccine requirements and developing department-specific plans.

"New routines require flexibility and grace — for ourselves and each other," OMB is telling staff. 

The federal civilian workforce numbers about 2.1 million, according to the Office of Personnel Management.

Driving the news: One administration official tells Axios that over the next several weeks, the White House will begin a broad push for a return to normal — with messaging to show the public that federal employees are back at work. 

Sources say many of the details may come after the State of the Union, in separate remarks around the two-year mark of the start of the pandemic.

Details: A State Department official says a "Mission Critical plus Onsite Dependent Functions" posture begins Monday for the D.C-area workforce. That's government-speak for more people can come to the office, but with the option of mixing of onsite and telework options depending on their mission.

A Treasury official says that while thousands of its employees have worked onsite throughout the pandemic, March 14 will mark the start of a nine-week transition to reentry for other employees, with 97% now vaccinated. "Reentry is a process, not an event," the official said. "Employee safety remains a priority. ... Treasury will continually monitor local and national conditions." 

What they're saying: About half of the 700,000 federal and D.C. government workers who are members of the American Federation of Government Employees kept working onsite throughout COVID because they can’t do their jobs from home, AFGE's policy director Jacqueline Simon said. 

That includes jobs at federal prisons, the Border Patrol, and veterans'  and military hospitals and clinics.

The other half have been working fully virtually throughout the pandemic — and COVID safety is their top concern as they await return-to-work guidance — Simon said.

What's next: Simon said some agencies will try to limit as much teleworking as possible because they place a premium on in-person collaboration — but that overall the appetite for telework among AFGE's members is higher than ever before.

Axios' Alexi McCammond, Andrew Solender and Jonathan Swan contributed reporting. 

Scoop: Biden to send more U.S. workers back to office

Expect a broad push for a return to normal — and messaging to show the public that federal employees are back at work.

Illustration of open signs in the shape of the U.S. flag.

COVID-19

The Biden administration plans to accelerate the return of the federal workforce this week, as the White House seeks to show the country that in-person work can be safe, people familiar with the plans tell Axios.Why it matters: President Biden wants to lead by example in arguing that most Americans can safely return to the workplace. Biden&#x27;s team is discussing the best way to send a clear back-to-work signal to America — perhaps in the State of the Union address on Tuesday, but probably in a separate COVID speech later in March.

Amid the most personal of religious holidays, and as Ukraine defied Russia's demands to surrender besieged Mariupol, Volodymyr Zelensky offered an epitaph in case he doesn't survive the war:

What he's saying: "A human being that loved life to the fullest and loved his family and loved his motherland — definitely not a hero," he told CNN for an interview taped over Passover weekend and airing Easter Sunday. "I want people to take me as I am: a regular human."

Why it matters: Zelensky's evolution from comic to Ukrainian president has only been upstaged by his emergence as a world leader.

That was on display in the interview as he invited and predicted an eventual visit from President Biden and framed the stakes for his nation around biblical themes of freedom, sacrifice, exodus and resurrection.

Asked to name his own heroes, Zelensky singled out his power base: "Only the people."

 "I understand I have to be the strongest one in this situation ... and the most important is the way my children look at me. They have to be proud of me. This is the most important thing. I do everything for this."

Between the lines: Since the war in Ukraine began on Feb. 24, Ukrainians have been subjected to an onslaught that's killed unknown thousands of soldiers and civilians.

Zelensky acknowledged seeing video of a mother finding her son dead in a well — and confessed to the rage it triggered in him. "This is the most horrifying thing I have seen in my life," he said.

"We can all work on how to rebuild apartments and houses and compensate them. How do you compensate for the loss of a child? I don't think anyone in the world has an answer for that. There is a desire for justice through revenge and that at least the people who did this would feel the same pain."

What they're saying: In more political comments, he bashed fellow leaders for saying "never again" in terms of the Holocaust even as Russia grinds through Ukraine. "I don't believe the world," Zelensky said.

"If you are our friends or partners, give us weapon, give us hand, give us — support us, give us money, and stop Russia, kick Russia."

Zelensky if he doesn’t survive: “Definitely not a hero”

"I want people to take me as I am: a regular human."

A mother kisses a photo of her son as he was buried after being killed fighting the Russians in eastern Ukraine.

Olena Siksoy kisses a picture of her son, Ukrainian soldier Ruslan Siksoy, during his burial Sunday at Lychakiv Cemetery  in Lviv, Ukraine. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Volodymyr Zelensky

Amid the most personal of religious holidays, and as Ukraine defied Russia&#x27;s demands to surrender besieged Mariupol, Volodymyr Zelensky offered an epitaph in case he doesn&#x27;t survive the war:What he&#x27;s saying: &quot;A human being that loved life to the fullest and loved his family and loved his motherland — definitely not a hero,&quot; he told CNN <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="for an interview" data-vars-click-url="https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2022-04-17/segment/01" data-vars-content-id="c4dfeff9-dc9a-40e5-b5f9-29018a7240c9" data-vars-headline="Zelensky if he doesn’t survive: “Definitely not a hero”" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2022-04-17/segment/01" target="_blank">for an interview</a> taped over Passover weekend and airing Easter Sunday. &quot;I want people to take me as I am: a regular human.&quot;

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Stories

Zelensky if he doesn’t survive: “Definitely not a hero”

May 9 Russian holiday will be pivotal, dangerous deadline

Pentagon says U.S. sent 50 million bullets as part of lethal aid to Ukraine

Blinken walks tightrope with Ukraine assessment

Scoop: Biden to send more U.S. workers back to office