Axios

Former President Trump's presidential campaign raised more than President Biden's in the second quarter of this year, according to announcements by both campaigns on Tuesday.

The big picture: As November's election looms closer, Biden is facing calls from some Democrats to step down amid concerns about his performance in the first 2024 debate with Trump.

Major Democratic donors are now planning to go bigger on contributions to House and Senate candidates in a bid to build a Capitol Hill firewall around a second Trump term that they view as increasingly likely, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Donors are preparing to shift money toward congressional races as they wait for fuller polling on how damaging President Biden's debate performance was. That data will help determine whether they keep pouring money into a campaign many fear is in trouble.

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) on Tuesday became the first Democratic member of Congress to publicly call for President Biden to withdraw as the party's 2024 nominee after his disastrous debate performance last week.

Why it matters: Many Democratic lawmakers are increasingly worried about a rout for their party up and down the ticket on Nov. 5 and hoping to salvage their chances.

A pre-planned meeting of House Democrats focused on the party's political messaging devolved into a grievance fest about President Biden, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The episode reflects a growing frustration in Congress toward Biden and his campaign that is now spilling out into public view.

Special counsel Jack Smith and former President Trump's lawyers will enter a war of attrition with evidence in the Jan. 6 case to determine what is considered an official presidential act.

Why it matters: The Supreme Court ruled that Trump has immunity for official acts but didn't conclude which Jan. 6-related communications fall within that scope, leaving in district court's purview what former federal prosecutors told Axios is a granular and "painstaking process."

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) on Tuesday predicted former President Trump will win the 2024 election in November and said he is "OK with that."

Why it matters: Golden's prediction adds to a growing deluge of congressional Democrats opening up about their lack of confidence in President Biden to carry the Democratic ticket to victory.

Trump-backed state Sen. John McGuire officially ousted House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Va.) in Virginia's 5th Congressional District GOP primary on Tuesday, following a contentious race that split the chamber's Republicans.

Why it matters: Good's loss provides Trump with another win over a lawmaker he repeatedly accused of being "disloyal," and underscores once again the power the former president wields over congressional races.

President Biden is struggling to contain mounting dissent from Democratic members of Congress that has culminated in a call for him to withdraw as the party's nominee.

Why it matters: Biden's campaign has attempted to quash concerns about the president's political strength and fitness for office by casting doubters as overwrought, but that strategy now appears to be backfiring.

Republicans continue to use Joe Biden's debate fumble to argue that the 81-year old president is unfit to be in office now — much less into 2029.

Why it matters: They're questioning Biden's ability to handle a world at war, hitting down-ballot Democrats who have defended his mental acuity and calling for his removal through the 25th amendment — all as panic within the Democratic Party worsens.

Officials on President Biden's White House and campaign staffs say they're feeling rage, sadness, frustration and resolve over his debate performance and his team's response to it, more than a dozen White House and campaign aides told Axios.

Why it matters: Biden's performance at the debate has left many of his own aides worried about his mental fitness, and angry about what they see as a lack of candor from Biden's senior aides.

Former President Trump's sentencing in his New York hush money case was pushed back as his lawyers seek to have his criminal conviction tossed, according to a Tuesday court filing obtained by MSNBC.

Why it matters: Trump is seizing on the Supreme Court's landmark immunity ruling on Monday to challenge his historic conviction before the planned sentencing date, originally scheduled for July 11.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and his Democratic leadership deputies on Tuesday endorsed Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) for reelection.

Why it matters: The "Squad" progressive faces a tough primary battle with local prosecutor Wesley Bell amid multiple investigations into her campaign finances.

Rudy Giuliani, ex-lawyer to former President Trump, on Tuesday lost his license to practice law in New York.

Why it matters: The order from New York's Appellate Division First Department is the latest in a string of events tied to Giuliani's alleged actions to help Trump overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

A growing number of Latino U.S. Congressional incumbents and challengers are seeking seats in non-Hispanic majority districts — a phenomenon that was rare a decade ago.

Why it matters: The shifting political landscape illustrates how Latinos are increasingly dispersed around the U.S. and how more Latino candidates are appealing to voters across racial and ethnic lines.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said he is not focused on the possibility that former President Trump might be re-elected and could chip away at the central bank's political independence.

Why it matters: When Trump was in office, he publicly lambasted Powell, whom he appointed — once suggesting the central bank chief was a bigger "enemy" than China's Xi Jinping.

The Civil Rights Act was signed into law on this day in 1964 by then-President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Why it matters: The legislation prohibited discrimination based on race, color, sex, national origin or religion.

Even as former President Trump wades through a complex web of legal woes to avoid prison, some of his allies and associates are already facing that fate.

The big picture: A striking number of people closely associated with the former president have been sentenced to prison for an array of crimes that include contempt of Congress and campaign finance violations.

Exactly 30 years ago, a Warren G hip-hop classic opened with the line "Regulators, mount up!" But now the Supreme Court is giving very different signals.

Why it matters: A 6-3 ruling Monday from the court's conservative majority brings even more jeopardy for expansive executive rules.

A Louisiana federal judge has blocked the White House pause on new LNG export licenses to major markets, but the on-the-ground effects of the order are pretty hazy for now.

Why it matters: The injunction Monday is a victory for attorneys general in 16 GOP-led states and industry groups battling the pause, which Biden officials announced in January to weigh the economic and climate effects of surging exports.

Four years after George Floyd's murder, Minneapolis has a long way to go to deliver on a promised radical transformation of policing and public safety, although some progress has been made, city officials and community leaders tell Axios.

Why it matters: Minneapolis will soon be under two court orders to implement sweeping reforms.

Former President Trump, if re-elected, plans to immediately test the boundaries of presidential and governing power, knowing the restraints of Congress and the courts are dramatically looser than during his first term, his advisers tell Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen for a Behind the Curtain column.

Why it matters: It's not just the Supreme Court ruling on Monday that presidents enjoy substantial legal immunity for actions in office. Trump would come to office with a cabinet and staff pre-vetted for loyalty, and a fully compliant Republican coalition in Congress — devoid of critics in positions of real power.

Top Democrats privately predict Republican majorities in the House and Senate if Biden loses.

• Most of Trump's most prominent critics — Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, et al. — will be gone. Even the few who remain, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), will be substantially less powerful. Trump would be backed by an overwhelmingly Trump-friendly Senate and House — loaded with loyalists, top to bottom. Many were elected since his 2016 win, and many thanks to his endorsement.

Anxious Democratic donors grilled Biden campaign officials on a Zoom call yesterday, pressing Biden's team on how it will deal with new concerns about his fitness for office, Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson report.

• Why it matters: There wasn't much panic during the special call for wealthy donors — but there was a fair degree of skepticism.

Donors didn't find the campaign's answers totally satisfying.

Sixty years ago today, President Biden says in a proclamation, "President Lyndon B. Johnson signed into law one of the most significant pieces of civil rights legislation in history — the Civil Rights Act of 1964."

• "It prohibited discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. That day, our Nation moved closer to our North Star, the founding ideal of America: We are all created equal and deserve to be treated equally throughout our lives."

The Supreme Court's decision Friday limiting executive branch power also further hobbled U.S. government efforts to roll back Big Tech's power, Axios managing editor for tech Scott Rosenberg writes.

• Why it matters: Tech giants have long fueled efforts to pass new federal laws limiting the companies' influence. But now, and for a long time to come, advocates will need to find other ways to achieve that goal.

Friday's decision essentially scuttles the regulatory strategy Congress has long used to establish rules for complex technical realms like healthcare, the environment and telecommunications.

• For 40 years, under a Supreme Court principle known as "Chevron deference," Congress has assumed it can draft broad principles establishing its goals and plans — and leave the complex implementation details to experts at executive-branch agencies.

Mary Meeker has written her first report in over four years, focused on the relationship between artificial intelligence and U.S. higher education, Axios' Dan Primack writes.

• Why it matters: Meeker's annual "Internet Trends" reports were among Silicon Valley's most cited and consumed documents.

Each one dug deep into the new tech economy, with hundreds of pages of slides. The last one was published in 2019.

• Meeker's new effort is a shorter attempt (17 pages!) at reconciling tech's brave new world and America's economic vitality, with higher ed as the connective tissue.

🔬 Zoom in: Meeker argues that the U.S. has wrested the AI lead from China — and that key to staying ahead is for tech and universities to treat each other as partners, rather than obstacles.

The stock market has never been as concentrated as it is now, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

• Why it matters: The performance of the stock market as a whole is increasingly a function of how just a few megacap tech stocks are faring.

Keep reading ... Get Axios Markets.

American politicians have been known to flip pancakes, grill steaks and ride motorcycles as they try to show their humanity.

• But ahead of the U.K.'s national election on Thursday, Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, took a water aerobics class while campaigning in Cheltenham, in the Cotswolds.

Former President Trump, if re-elected, plans to immediately test the boundaries of presidential and governing power, knowing the restraints of Congress and the courts are dramatically looser than during his first term, his advisers tell us.

Why it matters: It's not just the Supreme Court ruling on Monday that presidents enjoy substantial legal immunity for actions in office. Trump would come to office with a Cabinet and staff pre-vetted for loyalty, and a fully compliant Republican coalition in Congress — devoid of critics in positions of real power.

• That's a big reason many Democrats worry President Biden is making one of the biggest gambles in U.S. history by staying in the race amid acute concerns about his age.

The Biden administration on Tuesday published a new rule for employers that aims to help protect about 36 million workers from heat-related illnesses and death.

Why it matters: The rule, if finalized, would establish the country's first federal safety standard addressing excessive heat in the workplace — at a time when large swaths of the country are experiencing extreme heat.

President Biden's campaign raised $127 million in June, including $38 million in the four days after his debate with former President Trump, the campaign announced Tuesday.

Why it matters: The haul marked an increase over the $85 million the campaign raised into its various accounts in May, but was less than the $141 million Trump brought in last month.

Anxious Democratic donors grilled Biden campaign officials on a Zoom call Monday, pressing Biden's team on how it will deal with new concerns about his fitness for office, according to four donors on the call.

Why it matters: There wasn't much panic during the special call for wealthy donors — but there was a fair degree of skepticism.

President Biden called the Supreme Court ruling on former President Trump's immunity claims in his federal Jan. 6 criminal case on Monday a "dangerous precedent."

Why it matters: The high court's 6-3 ruling that Trump had immunity from criminal prosecution for "official acts" taken while in the White House has major implications for presidential power.

🎯 It's hard to imagine a better week of news for Donald Trump — a positive new poll, followed by President Biden's disastrous debate performance and a Supreme Court ruling that's likely to delay the former president's trial on charges he tried to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.

• 🌊 Trump gets to ride the wave into a critical phase of his campaign with the Republican National Convention meeting in two weeks, while Democrats publicly question whether they're backing the wrong candidate.

🗳️ If Trump wins the Nov. 5 election, analysts might point to the last several days as the moment the tide turned. At the very least, it's the low point of Biden's campaign. Here's a recap:

🎨 Democrats are painting a grim picture of what today's Supreme Court ruling would mean for a second Trump term, saying it could give a president bent on chaos unfettered power to carry it out.

• 🥊 They're also vowing to fight back by pressing legislation aimed at reining in the court and through an ad campaign warning about the risk of re-electing Trump.
• The moves come as Democrats are trying to direct voters' attention toward Trump — and away from Biden's lackluster debate performance.

⚡️ House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), in a statement reacting to the ruling, said House Democrats "will engage in aggressive oversight and legislative activity" in response.

👀 Many top Democratic donors are carefully watching polls over the next several weeks before deciding whether to call for Biden to be replaced on the party's ticket before the party's convention begins Aug. 19.

• 📆 But the calendar for any such change is a lot shorter than that.

🗳️ As Axios' Hans Nichols reported in May, Democrats plan to hold a virtual roll call of delegates well before the convention because Ohio requires parties to submit candidates' names for its ballot by Aug. 7.

• The roll call could happen as early as July 21, Bloomberg first reported today.
• That would mean the window for replacing Biden is here, for just a couple of weeks — and no one's sure how that would work anyway.

🎤 Biden's former press secretary Jen Psaki will sit for an interview this month in the House Foreign Affairs Committee's probe into the U.S. military's exit from Afghanistan, according to a letter from her lawyer to the panel obtained by Axios.

• Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the committee, is set to release a report on Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan before the Nov. 5 election.
• It could contain politically damaging information about the withdrawal, which included the deaths of 13 U.S. soldiers in a bombing at the Kabul airport.
• The panel's probe has unearthed inconsistencies between what Biden and the White House were saying publicly, and what was happening on the ground.

President Biden's former press secretary Jen Psaki will sit for an interview this month in the House Foreign Affairs Committee's probe into the U.S. military's exit from Afghanistan, according to a letter from her lawyer to the panel obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the committee, is set to release a report on Biden's U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan before the Nov. 5 election.

The Democratic National Committee will take over the digital homepages of three major battleground-state newspapers Tuesday, hitting Donald Trump as a threat to democracy, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity is fueling a new party effort to remind voters of the former president's election denialism as President Biden's campaign is flagging.

It's hard to imagine a better week of news for Donald Trump — a positive new poll, followed by President Biden's disastrous debate performance and a Supreme Court ruling delaying the former president's most serious criminal trial.

Why it matters: Trump gets to ride the wave into a critical phase of his campaign and the Republican National Convention in two weeks, while Democrats publicly question whether they backed the wrong candidate.

The Supreme Court on Monday ruled that presidents have immunity for "official acts," but punted to the trial court the question of whether former President Trump's alleged conduct in his Jan. 6 case was protected.

Why it matters: The 6-3 decision, though not a sweeping victory for Trump, all but guarantees that his Jan. 6 case won't go to trial before this year's presidential election.