July's fiery U.S. temperature outlook makes June look tame
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The latest U.S. temperature outlook for July, typically the hottest month, offers little comfort for those hoping the June heat waves are an aberration.
The big picture: The outlook, issued Thursday, shows nearly the entire Lower 48 states experiencing above-average temperatures, with two centers of much more likely than usual heat: The Great Basin and nearby states, plus the Northeast.
- July heat waves have the potential to be more intense than during June, with the same strength of heat dome yielding higher temperatures due to the sun angle and higher average temperatures.
- The monthly outlook is based in part on the development of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can tip the odds in favor of blocking high pressure areas forming across the continental U.S.
- Such high pressure areas, or heat domes, can redirect weather systems around them like an atmospheric detour, and manufacture long-lasting, scorching heat in areas under their influence.
Zoom in: According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the Pacific Northwest stands out as having an equal chance of above average, average or below average temperatures. So at least there, a warm signal isn't showing up.
- The outlook reflects the expectation that the greatest odds of hotter than average temperatures will occur in and around the Great Basin, which includes the region from Arizona to Wyoming.
- And in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states from Ohio to North Carolina, forecasters give especially high odds of hotter than average temperatures.
Yes, but: This outlook shows the likelihood of monthly average temperatures winding up above average, near normal or below normal, but doesn't predict the magnitude of heat.
- Those forecasts will come on shorter timescales.
- Instead, this product allows farmers, firefighters, energy professionals and the insurance industry to anticipate potential needs across the country.
The bottom line: Assuming this outlook proves correct, expect more searing heat waves.
