El Niño is over, and La Niña is likely to be next, NOAA says
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So long, El Niño, we hardly knew you. According to NOAA, ocean temperatures have cooled enough in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean to declare the once-strong event over.
Why it matters: What comes next has forecasters and coastal residents particularly worried, since a La Niña event is projected to develop this fall. It could potentially juice the Atlantic hurricane season.
Zoom in: According to Michelle L'Heureux, head of the El Niño forecasting unit at the Climate Prediction Center, neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions (known as "ENSO-neutral conditions") are likely to be present through August, when the odds of a La Niña increase.
- "El Nino is over! Finished," L'Heureux tells Axios via email.
- Forecasters are now more confident that La Niña, which features cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific, will form slightly later than previous projections showed — setting in during the July-through-September timeframe, she adds.
- The odds of this timeframe, a new bulletin out Thursday states, is 65%.
- "Part of the reason for that shift is b/c we've noticed a recent slowdown in the rate of ocean cooling. We are still fairly confident that La Niña will eventually emerge," she said, noting the 85% chance NOAA has assigned for it by the early winter.
Between the lines: A slightly later emergence of the Pacific climate cycle may help prevent the Atlantic hurricane season from being as hyperactive as predicted. It could offset its peak effects until after the season's typical busiest period, which is from mid-August through September.
- La Niña tends to reduce the strength and prevalence of wind shear across the North Atlantic Ocean Basin. This makes for a friendlier environment for tropical storms and hurricanes to form.
Yes, but: There are still plenty of other signs pointing to a very active Atlantic hurricane season even without a La Niña.
- The list includes record-warm ocean temperatures and model projections of wetter-than-average conditions near the eastern U.S.
The intrigue: The demise of El Niño means the planet's 14-month-long string of record-warm months is likely to come to an end. El Niño events tend to add more heat to the oceans and atmosphere, coming on top of the influence of human-caused climate change.
- During the most recent El Niño, global average temperatures set new milestones, alarming many scientists and raising questions about whether climate change is accelerating.
