1 big thing: Penn donor yanks $100M gift

2. 🎁 Surprise holiday rush

3. Catch me up

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1 big thing: Record flood of political ads

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3. ⚖️ Feds file new Hunter charges

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5. 🎧 Spotify hits marketing jackpot

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Former President Trump, if elected, would build a Cabinet and White House staff based mainly on two imperatives: pre-vetted loyalty to him and a commitment to stretch legal and governance boundaries, sources who talk often with the leading GOP presidential candidate tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump would fill the most powerful jobs in government with men like Stephen Miller, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio and Kash Patel — with the possible return of Steve Bannon. If Trump won in 2024, he'd turn to loyalists who share his zeal to punish critics, purge non-believers, and take controversial legal and military action, the sources tell us.

Trump and his prospective top officials don't mince words about their plans:

They want to target and jail critics, including government officials and journalists; deport undocumented immigrants or put them in detainment camps, and unleash the military to target drug cartels in Mexico, or possibly crack down on criminals or protesters at home. 

They want to scrap rules that limit their ability to purge government workers deemed disloyal. 

What's happening: Trump hasn't settled on specific roles for specific figures, and hates it when his staff and friends speculate otherwise. It's not in his DNA to do detailed personnel planning, and a lot depends on the last few people he's talked to. 

But in rolling conversations with friends and advisers, he's been clear about the type of men — and they're almost all older, white men — he'd want to serve at his pleasure if he were to win a second term.

Between the lines: We wrote last month about the multimillion-dollar effort to vet loyalists for up to 50,000 lower-level government jobs in a Trump administration. This is about their potential bosses.

It's unclear who would land where, but make no mistake: These are specific prototypes of Trump Republicans who would run his government. This is very different from the early days of his first term, when he was restrained by more conventional officials, from John Kelly to James Mattis to Gary Cohn.

This time, it'd be all loyalists, no restraints. 

Here's our latest intelligence on what's being discussed among Trump and a small group of confidants: 

Vice president: Trump talks openly to friends about several possibilities for running mate. Table stakes for these candidates is proving you believe the 2020 election was stolen and that former Vice President Mike Pence wimped out by allowing its certification. 

Those who'd be considered include J.D. Vance, the "Hillbilly Elegy" author and a MAGA favorite; Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders; Kari Lake, a leading election denier now running for U.S. Senate in Arizona, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. (Vance might prefer to remain in the Senate as "Trump's hammer," we're told.) 

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), one of the few Black Republicans in Congress, has traveled with Trump on the campaign and would love to be V.P. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who lost her House committee assignments because she pushed baseless conspiracy theories, also gets mentioned. 

But here's an interesting twist: Melania Trump is an advocate for picking Tucker Carlson, the booted Fox News star. She thinks Carlson would make a powerful onstage extension of her husband, a source close to Trump told us. The former first lady has made few campaign appearances this time around — but a Trump-Carlson ticket might encourage her to hit the trail. 

Trump, asked last month about Carlson as a potential V.P., said: "I like Tucker a lot. ... He's got great common sense."

The idea of Tucker Carlson has been discounted by many people close to Trump because they assume he'd never pick someone who could outshine him. And Trump's staff is convinced (correctly) that Carlson can't be controlled. But the two men talk a lot.

Others likely to wield power in a second Trump term share a lot in common with Carlson. They're full, proud MAGA warriors, anti-GOP establishment zealots, and eager and willing to test the boundaries of executive power to get Trump's way. They include:

Stephen Miller: He could be your next attorney general and, if not that, get a Cabinet-level role to greatly influence immigration policy.

He was the architect of Trump's most controversial immigration plans in the first term — including family separation — and has written and spoken extensively about unprecedented plans to detain, purge and punish undocumented immigrants if put back in charge. He's eager to test the boundaries of what courts and the military can do to make this happen fast. 

Miller currently heads a nonprofit dedicated to suing the Biden administration and promoting "America First" causes, and has been leading efforts to recruit an army of right-wing lawyers to staff a MAGA-dominated executive branch.

Carlson told Axios that Miller would be his first choice to lead the Justice Department: "He's a serious person and he understands how the system works."

Mike Davis: Donald Trump Jr. has floated Davis, the former chief counsel for nominations to then-Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), to be Trump's interim attorney general — saying it would be a "shot across the bow of the swamp."

In his public auditions for the job, the bombastic Davis has promised a "three-week reign of terror" in which he would "put kids in cages" and jail prosecutors and journalists who have gone after Trump — even telling MSNBC's Mehdi Hasan that he has "his spot picked out in the D.C. gulag."

A source close to the Trump campaign told us A.G. is the office where Trump is "most likely to make a shocking pick," with the defiant view: "You want to weaponize DOJ, mother----er?'"

Steve Bannon: In the early days of Trump's first term, he was arguably the most powerful man on staff, plotting personnel and policy decisions from his Capitol Hill townhouse. Then, he was ousted and frozen out. Now, thanks to his popular podcast and pro-Trump fervency, he's back.

He could be the next White House chief of staff, an idea Carlson and a few others are pushing hard with the former president.

Carlson tells Axios that Bannon would diligently implement promises after Trump lost interest. "Steve believes: If you said we're building a wall, we're building a wall," Carlson said.

Bannon — who is appealing a contempt of Congress conviction — has proud authoritarian beliefs and sees everything as an existential war between good (Trump) and evil (Democrats, establishment Republicans, the media).

Kash Patel: A protege of former Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) who led efforts to discredit the Russia investigation, Patel came to be viewed as a political mercenary in Trump's war against the intelligence community. The former Pentagon official would be considered for a top national security job in the next administration, possibly even running the CIA or NSC.

In 2021, Patel authored an illustrated children's book about the Russia investigation in which "King Donald" is a character persecuted by "Hillary Queenton and her shifty knight."

Trump took a shine to Patel in his first term but was talked out of making him a deputy director of the FBI or CIA by senior officials — including former Attorney General Bill Barr, who wrote in his memoir that it would happen "over my dead body."

Former CIA director Gina Haspel threatened to resign over a plan to install Patel as her deputy in the final weeks of Trump's presidency, when he became convinced the intelligence community possessed documents that could damage his political enemies. 

Steve Bannon said this week on his "War Room" podcast that Patel would "probably" be CIA director in a second term.

Patel told Bannon: "One thing we learned in the Trump administration the first go-round is we've got to put in all of our compatriots from top to bottom. And we've got them for law enforcement ... [Defense Department], CIA, everywhere. ... Yes, we're going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens."

To avoid a confirmation battle, Patel also might have a National Security Council role where he could do special projects for Trump — or even be national security adviser. 

Johnny McEntee, Trump's loyalty vetter and enforcer, headed presidential personnel in the first term. McEntee might return to that role with even more power. He also could be Trump's gatekeeper as head of Oval Office operations, or could be Cabinet secretary, riding herd on the White House liaisons to each department.

A former colleague described McEntee to us as "Trump's utility player — a guaranteed loyal ally, wherever you place him, who'd make sure the Trump agenda was being implemented."

The 33-year-old former UConn quarterback was empowered by the end of Trump's term in a way his predecessors never were — tasked with systematically purging officials deemed insufficiently loyal and making significant staffing changes without the consent of agency heads.

By late 2020, McEntee had explicit lists of top officials to fire and hire in a Trump second term, reaching far down the federal bureaucracy in a mission to truly "clean out" the "Deep State." That project has continued outside of government with a $22 million presidential transition project led by the Heritage Foundation.

"The president's plan should be to fundamentally reorient the federal government in a way that hasn't been done since F.D.R.'s New Deal," McEntee told the N.Y. Times, arguing the current system "was conceived of by liberals" and must be completely overhauled.

In the final days of the Trump administration, McEntee sought to orchestrate the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Germany and Africa — a last-minute gambit by the president stifled by guardrails that likely wouldn't be present in a second term.

Jeffrey Clark — a former assistant attorney general for Trump who could get a top Justice Department slot — is the rare person to be considered for a future administration while under indictment.

In the weeks after the 2020 election, the little-known environmental lawyer urged top DOJ officials to announce they were investigating baseless claims of election fraud, which they rejected.

Trump then considered appointing Clark as acting attorney general as the pair plotted to overturn the election results, prompting DOJ leadership to threaten to resign en masse.

Clark was charged as part of the Trump racketeering case in Fulton County, Ga., over his attempts to have DOJ send a letter to Georgia officials declaring that fraud may have altered the outcome of the 2020 election.

Prosecutors say the statement was false and furthered the conspiracy to overturn the election. Clark pleaded not guilty.

Ric Grenell — former ambassador to Germany, and Trump's acting director of national intelligence — would be on the short list for secretary of state.

Grenell infuriated European diplomats with his "America First" broadsides during his time in Berlin, and has basked in his reputation as an online troll beloved by the MAGA movement for his willingness to go on the attack.

Career intelligence officials have labeled Grenell — who declassified Obama-era intelligence in an effort to reshape perceptions of the Russia investigation — the least-experienced and most overtly political appointee ever to serve as head of the intelligence community.

In Grenell's last Cabinet meeting before his exit, Trump praised him as an "all-time great acting [official], at any position."

Former national security adviser Robert O'Brien, a more traditional conservative who remains in Trump's good graces, would be a more confirmable pick for secretary of state.

Susie Wiles: Some in Trumpworld assume the most likely chief of staff is Wiles, the longtime Florida political operative who's running Trump's campaign. 

The campaign so far has avoided the gusher of leaks that have been hallmarks of Trump operations. She's seen as an adept Trump enabler who would serve loyally, with discipline. By bridging the campaign and the administration, she'd provide continuity.

Trump's pell-mell style could push him to a wild-card choice for chief. "Everyone he knows is a direct report," said one former Trump administration official. 

John Ratcliffe, the former Texas congressman who was Trump's final DNI, would be considered to head the CIA, for a return to DNI, for defense secretary or even for vice president.

Ratcliffe, a China hawk, was one of Trump's fiercest allies in Congress during the first impeachment inquiry. He later used his authority as the nation's top intelligence official to declassify information aimed at calling into question the origins of both COVID and the Justice Department's Russia investigation.

Jamie Dimon: Trump is open to a few more mainstream picks if they bring celebrity or pizzazz. For example, Trump would consider JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, a Democrat, to head Treasury. "He wants a big name," a source close to the campaign said. "And he loves billionaires."

It's not clear Dimon would take the job — he's been talking privately with Nikki Haley about the global economy as she tries to knock off Trump for the nomination. Dimon told the N.Y. Times DealBook conference that Haley would be "a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump."

Dimon added: "He might be the president, and I have to deal with that, too."

Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas — a former Army infantry officer known for his hard edge, and who wrote a New York Times op-ed in Trump's first term supporting use of the Insurrection Act against civil disorder — would be considered to head the Pentagon. 

Lee Zeldin —a former congressman from Long Island who deployed to Iraq as an Army paratrooper — is another confirmable option for the Pentagon.

Like Cotton, Zeldin is considered more confirmable than many others in the mix.

Jared Kushner, who was a huge power center in Trump's West Wing, has mostly kept his distance from the campaign so far — but might well return to the White House if his father-in-law wins again, with a continued interest in Middle East policy.

Because Kushner would be talking with Trump's authority to world leaders anyway, one option would be secretary of state. 

What to watch: The heads of Cabinet departments don't have full powers unless confirmed by the Senate. Many of Trump's wannabe secretaries would have difficulty winning confirmation.

But Trump made unprecedented use of "acting" Cabinet members, who have temporary power over agencies even without Senate approval. And we're told he'd be prepared to push the envelope on ambiguities about how many stints an "acting" could serve.

"I sort of like 'acting,'" Trump said in 2019. "It gives me more flexibility."

Zachary Basu and Sophia Cai contributed reporting. 

"Behind the Curtain" is a column by Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and co-founder Mike Allen, based on regular conversations with White House and congressional leaders, CEOs and top technologists.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include that Bannon is appealing a contempt of Congress conviction. 

Behind the Curtain — Exclusive: How Trump would build his loyalty-first Cabinet

Trump would turn to loyalists who share his zeal to punish critics, purge non-believers, and take controversial legal and military action.

Clockwise from top left: Stephen Miller, Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio; Steve Bannon, Mike Davis, Tucker Carlson and Kash Patel. Photos: Giorgio Viera/AFP, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg, Brandon Bell, Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Donald Trump

Column / Behind the Curtain

2024 Elections

<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Former President Trump" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" data-vars-content-id="306e3550-cc49-466e-a106-2ef692e2e8db" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain — Exclusive: How Trump would build his loyalty-first Cabinet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_self">Former President Trump</a>, if elected, would build a Cabinet and White House staff based mainly on two imperatives: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pre-vetted loyalty" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/01/trump-government-job-applications-2025" data-vars-content-id="306e3550-cc49-466e-a106-2ef692e2e8db" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain — Exclusive: How Trump would build his loyalty-first Cabinet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/01/trump-government-job-applications-2025" target="_self">pre-vetted loyalty</a> to him and a commitment to stretch <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="legal and governance boundaries" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/06/trump-hannity-fox-news-town-hall" data-vars-content-id="306e3550-cc49-466e-a106-2ef692e2e8db" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain — Exclusive: How Trump would build his loyalty-first Cabinet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/06/trump-hannity-fox-news-town-hall" target="_self">legal and governance boundaries</a>, sources who talk often with the leading GOP presidential candidate tell Axios.Why it matters: Trump would fill the most powerful jobs in government with men like Stephen Miller, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio and Kash Patel — with the possible return of Steve Bannon. If Trump won in 2024, he&#x27;d turn to loyalists who <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="share his zeal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/23/donald-trump-news-schedule-f-executive-order" data-vars-content-id="306e3550-cc49-466e-a106-2ef692e2e8db" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain — Exclusive: How Trump would build his loyalty-first Cabinet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/23/donald-trump-news-schedule-f-executive-order" target="_self">share his zeal</a> to punish critics, purge non-believers, and take <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="controversial legal and military action" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/21/trump-2025-vision" data-vars-content-id="306e3550-cc49-466e-a106-2ef692e2e8db" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain — Exclusive: How Trump would build his loyalty-first Cabinet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/21/trump-2025-vision" target="_self">controversial legal and military action</a>, the sources tell us.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

June 12, 2024, will mark 100 years since the birth of the late President George H.W. Bush. The day before, Random House will publish a commemorative volume by Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer Jon Meacham, "A Call to Serve."

Zoom in: Drawn in part from Meacham's New York Times bestseller, "Destiny and Power: The American Odyssey of George Herbert Walker Bush," the book features 450+ photos — some never published. Others are classics by David Hume Kennerly, David Valdez and others.

The book also draws on decades of scrapbooks kept by the late Barbara Bush, the former first lady. Her scrapbooks are held at the George H. W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum in College Station, Texas.

Details: In an exclusive excerpt from "A Call to Service" provided to Axios, Meacham writes that the "character of George H.W. Bush ... oftentimes reflected the best impulses of the American project."

"It is true, of course, that Bush was not a monument but a man, not a saint but a statesman. But just enough of the time, at just enough critical junctures, the 41st president chose the right over the wrong, the difficult over the easy, the arduous over the expedient. Bush's life code, as he once put it in a letter to his mother, was: 'Tell the truth. Don't blame people. Be strong. Do your Best. Try hard. Forgive. Stay the course. All that kind of thing.'"

Of note: Meacham has written books on Abraham Lincoln, John Lewis and other historic political figures.

Go deeper: Historian Jon Meacham: Bending the arc of the moral universe "requires all of us"

Historian Jon Meacham: Bending the arc of the moral universe "requires all of us"

Exclusive: New Bush Sr. book draws on Barbara's scrapbooks, unpublished photos

The "character of George H.W. Bush ... oftentimes reflected the best impulses of the American project."

Cover: Random House. Photo: George H. W. Bush, then head of the U.S. Liaison Office in Beijing, with Henry Kissinger in China in 1975. Courtesy George H. W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum

George H.W. Bush

June 12, 2024, will mark 100 years since the birth of the late <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="President George H.W. Bush" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2018/12/01/george-hw-bush-dies" data-vars-content-id="7f049b74-7371-4c7f-85fc-2a9e3efa56d9" data-vars-headline="Exclusive: New Bush Sr. book draws on Barbara&#x27;s scrapbooks, unpublished photos" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2018/12/01/george-hw-bush-dies" target="_self">President George H.W. Bush</a>. The day before, Random House will publish a commemorative volume by Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Jon Meacham" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/biden-jon-meacham-volunteer-white-house" data-vars-content-id="7f049b74-7371-4c7f-85fc-2a9e3efa56d9" data-vars-headline="Exclusive: New Bush Sr. book draws on Barbara&#x27;s scrapbooks, unpublished photos" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/biden-jon-meacham-volunteer-white-house" target="_self">Jon Meacham</a>, &quot;A Call to Serve.&quot;Zoom in: Drawn in part from Meacham&#x27;s New York Times bestseller, &quot;<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Destiny and Power" data-vars-click-url="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/112696/destiny-and-power-by-jon-meacham/" data-vars-content-id="7f049b74-7371-4c7f-85fc-2a9e3efa56d9" data-vars-headline="Exclusive: New Bush Sr. book draws on Barbara&#x27;s scrapbooks, unpublished photos" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/112696/destiny-and-power-by-jon-meacham/" target="_blank">Destiny and Power</a>: The American Odyssey of George Herbert Walker Bush,&quot; the book features 450+ photos — some never published. Others are classics by David Hume Kennerly, David Valdez and others.

Top Trump campaign officials have a warning for allies following Axios' exclusive reporting about how President Trump would build his loyalty-first team if elected to a second term.

Driving the news: "No aspect of future presidential staffing or policy announcements should be deemed official" unless they come "directly from President Trump or an authorized member of his campaign team," top Trump campaign officials Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita said in a statement.

Sources who talk often with the leading GOP presidential candidate told Axios in its exclusive Behind the Curtain column that Trump would build a Cabinet and White House staff based mainly on two imperatives: pre-vetted loyalty to him and a commitment to stretch legal and governance boundaries.

He'd turn to loyalists who share his zeal to punish critics, purge non-believers, and take controversial legal and military action, the sources told Axios' Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei.

What they're saying: "Let us be even more specific, and blunt," the statement from Wiles and LaCivita continues: "People publicly discussing potential administration jobs for themselves or their friends are, in fact, hurting President Trump … and themselves. These are an unwelcomed distraction."

"Second term policy priorities and staffing decisions will not — in no uncertain terms — be led by anonymous or thinly sourced speculation in mainstream media news stories." 

Zoom out: A Wall Street Journal poll finds Trump leads President Biden among registered voters, 47% to 43%, in a national head-to-head matchup (margin of error: ±2.5 points.)

"Trump's lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix. They take a combined 17% support, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drawing the most, at 8%."

Trump campaign to allies: Put a sock in it

The statement comes after Axios' exclusive reporting about how Trump would build his loyalty-first team.

A commit-to-caucus card being distributed by the Trump campaign at Iowa rallies. Photo: Galen Bacharier/The Des Moines Register via Reuters

Top <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Trump" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" data-vars-content-id="be2217b0-d026-4d4e-8d3c-d580e4d82115" data-vars-headline="Trump campaign to allies: Put a sock in it" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_self">Trump</a> campaign officials have a warning for allies following Axios&#x27; <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="exclusive reporting" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/07/trump-loyalty-cabinet-2025-carlson-miller-bannon" data-vars-content-id="be2217b0-d026-4d4e-8d3c-d580e4d82115" data-vars-headline="Trump campaign to allies: Put a sock in it" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/07/trump-loyalty-cabinet-2025-carlson-miller-bannon" target="_self">exclusive reporting</a> about how President Trump would build his loyalty-first team if elected to a second term.Driving the news: &quot;No aspect of future presidential staffing or policy announcements should be deemed official&quot; unless they come &quot;directly from President Trump or an authorized member of his campaign team,&quot; top Trump campaign officials Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="said" data-vars-click-url="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/e008b76c-9f0e-408a-b73f-24735d234914" data-vars-content-id="be2217b0-d026-4d4e-8d3c-d580e4d82115" data-vars-headline="Trump campaign to allies: Put a sock in it" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/e008b76c-9f0e-408a-b73f-24735d234914" target="_blank">said</a> in a statement.

America's ability to remain the world's most lethal military hinges on two interrelated — and vexing — mysteries.

Can soon-to-retire four-star generals truly foresee the awesome power of artificial intelligence in time to break generation-old habits and shift warfare theories?

If they do, can they convince the brightest coding minds to chuck lucrative gigs at Google to build AI-powered systems for America faster or better than their rivals in China?

Why it matters: Future wars will be won with Stanford nerds, faster chips, superior computing power and precision robotics on land, sea and air. Experts tell us that because of a lethal combination of congressional myopia and constipated Pentagon buying rules, America isn't mobilizing fast enough to prevail on future battlefields.

"We are witnessing an unprecedented fundamental change in the character of war, and our window of opportunity to ensure that we maintain an enduring competitive advantage is closing," retired Army Gen. Mark Milley, who then was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned in a report he wrote shortly before retiring this fall.

What's happening: Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, said at last week's Axios AI+ Summit in Washington that with cutting-edge tech being deployed in Ukraine, a drone is no longer just an uncrewed flying object. It's a "potent software platform" that's a big step toward more automated war.

"It's clear that drones and other weapons based on autonomy can replace tanks, artillery and mortars," Schmidt told us in a later interview. "The success of Ukraine and also Russia on the battlefield proves this point."

But experts warn the U.S. is still spending too much time and money building aircraft carriers and other outmoded artifacts of analog war, because of the archaic restraints of what the late Senate Armed Services Chair John McCain called the "military-industrial-congressional complex."

What they're saying: Retired Army Gen. David Petraeus — former top commander in Iraq and Afghanistan, and former CIA director, who's author of the new bestseller "Conflict" — told us that tanks, ships and planes must be largely supplanted over time by a massive armada of much cheaper, smaller, uncrewed, algorithmically piloted systems.

"Aircraft carriers are still vital, as we see in the Middle East right now, but we will have to make choices for the future," Petraeus said.

Future models will increasingly separate the service member from the weapon, letting uncrewed systems do the most dangerous work.

"Humans will be on the loop rather than in the loop," Petraeus said. "You will have a human at some point say: 'OK, machine. You're free to take action according to the computer program we established for you' — rather than remotely piloting it."

The big picture: The answers to those two big questions are being determined now, as military experts sound the alarm about ways the tectonic shift in military power is threatening America in real time. Milley's report, "Strategic Inflection Point," is a 10-page wake-up call. 

"The American homeland has almost always been a sanctuary during conflict, but this will not be the case in a future war," Milley wrote. "Robust space and cyber capabilities allow adversaries to target critical national infrastructure."

Milley is among those warning privately that too many four-star generals — typically in their mid-50s to early 60s — are too old and too connected to conventional warfare to shift fast enough, sources tell us.

Army Gen. Erik Kurilla — commander of U.S. Central Command, which includes the Middle East — is seen as the most technologically innovative of the roughly 40 four-stars in the military today.

Zoom in: China — and AI — are the central focus of every future-of-defense conversation. Beijing knows technology alone can help leapfrog America, despite long being outspent by us (though the gap has mostly closed).

China has both a 2025 and 2050 plan to displace America as the world's most fearsome nation. And it has 4x as many people to draw from in the hunt for coders, scientists, quantum computing experts and advanced weapon systems architects.

Take hypersonic missiles. They move so fast that no modern defense system can come close to shooting them down until moments before they hit. China is far ahead of the U.S. in the hypersonic arms race — a potential scary edge in a conflict over Taiwan or beyond.

China has successfully tested a hypersonic missile with a range of at least 1,000 miles, allowing it to reach U.S. forces in the western Pacific, a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency scientist told Congress.

Details: Quantum technologies — which include ultra-precise sensors and more secure communications — promise to vastly improve military targeting and encryption. 

Nimble next-gen defense startups are already vying with legacy giants. Anduril Industries — founded by Palmer Luckey, who designed the head-mounted Oculus Rift and sold the technology to Facebook — on Friday unveiled an autonomous weapons platform, Roadrunner, with a portable hangar so compact it looks like an outhouse. (YouTube)

Reality check: America is crushing China so far in the machine-learning race, with the leading generative AI models designed and housed here. 

This is a big, if unspoken, reason President Biden is reluctant to regulate AI in meaningful ways. And Silicon Valley is quick to hit this fear hard when lobbying Congress to stay hands-off.

State of play: Michèle Flournoy — former undersecretary of defense for policy, and now co-founder of WestExec Advisors — told us that while every branch of the military has an innovation hub, the risk-averse culture means these efforts "are still on the margins of the main acquisition and budget processes."

"The Pentagon has gotten very good at tech-scouting and demonstrating and experimenting and prototyping," Flournoy said. "But actually moving things into production at scale has been a challenge."

What to watch: Experts tell us they expect Washington to pour gobs of new spending into next-gen warfighting as fears rise of China invading Taiwan — a once-distant threat that now could happen in the next presidential term. 

"The United States is a heartbeat away from a world war that it could lose," Wess Mitchell, an assistant secretary of state for Europe in the last administration, wrote last month in a Foreign Policy article that got a ton of attention in national security circles. 

The bottom line: Washington is buying hardware for the last war when it should be buying more software for the next one.

last week's Axios AI+ Summit in Washington

Behind the Curtain: U.S. not ready for era of robotic, AI world wars

Future wars will be won with Stanford nerds, faster chips, superior computing power and precision robotics.

The autonomous Roadrunner-M, billed as a "radical new class of recoverable ground-based air defense capability," was unveiled Friday. Photo: Anduril Industries

The Pentagon

Policymaking

America&#x27;s ability to remain the world&#x27;s most lethal <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="military" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/03/red-sea-attacks-commercial-ships-us-navy-yemen-houthi-israel-gaza-war" data-vars-content-id="c33f1021-0ad4-4f8d-b28c-4c07a672f0cd" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain: U.S. not ready for era of robotic, AI world wars" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/03/red-sea-attacks-commercial-ships-us-navy-yemen-houthi-israel-gaza-war" target="_self">military</a> hinges on two interrelated — and vexing — mysteries.<ul><li>Can soon-to-retire four-star generals truly foresee the awesome <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="power of artificial intelligence" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/23/ai-future-united-states-military" data-vars-content-id="c33f1021-0ad4-4f8d-b28c-4c07a672f0cd" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain: U.S. not ready for era of robotic, AI world wars" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/23/ai-future-united-states-military" target="_self">power of artificial intelligence</a> in time to break generation-old habits and shift warfare theories?</li><li>If they do, can they convince the brightest coding minds to chuck lucrative gigs at Google to build <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="AI-powered systems" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/23/ai-future-united-states-military" data-vars-content-id="c33f1021-0ad4-4f8d-b28c-4c07a672f0cd" data-vars-headline="Behind the Curtain: U.S. not ready for era of robotic, AI world wars" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/23/ai-future-united-states-military" target="_self">AI-powered systems</a> for America faster or better than their rivals in China?</li></ul>

Still from video by Jordan Van Glish via X. Used by permission

Protesters in Philadelphia outside of Goldie, a falafel restaurant. Still from video by Jordan Van Glish via X. Used by permission

The White House condemned a pro-Palestinian demonstration that targeted a Jewish-owned kosher falafel shop in Philadelphia with chants of "genocide."

Why it matters: It's a high-profile new example of ways the Israel-Hamas war is roiling American campuses, businesses and politics — the rare international conflict that Americans feel viscerally and personally.

The image above is from video taken by a neighbor of Goldie — the vegan, Israeli-style falafel shop — at 5:20 p.m. yesterday. 

Biden condemns "antisemitic" rally at Philadelphia falafel shop

It's a high-profile new example of ways the Israel-Hamas war is roiling American campuses, businesses and politics.

<figure><img alt="Still from video by Jordan Van Glish via X. Used by permission" height="1498" id="5f76bcb6-10de-4bf9-bf44-1398c0b03a2d" src="https://images.axios.com/hEjBC5A1zX28cwsVX5IizpHiFAI=/2023/12/04/1701724673270.jpg" width="1333"/><figcaption>Protesters in Philadelphia outside of Goldie, a falafel restaurant. Still from video by Jordan Van Glish via X. Used by permission</figcaption></figure>The White House condemned a pro-Palestinian demonstration that targeted a Jewish-owned <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="kosher" data-vars-click-url="https://www.mekorhabracha.org/kosher-restaurantsbakeries-icecream.html" data-vars-content-id="d645a74e-66a1-4060-aec4-2a5a54c2a99f" data-vars-headline="Biden condemns &quot;antisemitic&quot; rally at Philadelphia falafel shop" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.mekorhabracha.org/kosher-restaurantsbakeries-icecream.html" target="_blank">kosher</a> falafel shop in Philadelphia with chants of &quot;genocide.&quot;Why it matters: It&#x27;s a high-profile new example of ways the Israel-Hamas war is roiling American <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="campuses" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/29/harvard-nyc-public-schools-antisemitism-investigation" data-vars-content-id="d645a74e-66a1-4060-aec4-2a5a54c2a99f" data-vars-headline="Biden condemns &quot;antisemitic&quot; rally at Philadelphia falafel shop" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/29/harvard-nyc-public-schools-antisemitism-investigation" target="_self">campuses</a>, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="businesses" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/17/apple-twitter-x-advertising-elon-musk-antisemitism-ads" data-vars-content-id="d645a74e-66a1-4060-aec4-2a5a54c2a99f" data-vars-headline="Biden condemns &quot;antisemitic&quot; rally at Philadelphia falafel shop" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/17/apple-twitter-x-advertising-elon-musk-antisemitism-ads" target="_self">businesses</a> and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="politics" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/02/muslim-americans-swing-states-anti-biden-campaign" data-vars-content-id="d645a74e-66a1-4060-aec4-2a5a54c2a99f" data-vars-headline="Biden condemns &quot;antisemitic&quot; rally at Philadelphia falafel shop" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/02/muslim-americans-swing-states-anti-biden-campaign" target="_self">politics</a> — the rare international conflict that Americans <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="feel viscerally and personally" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/10/israel-hamas-city-hall" data-vars-content-id="d645a74e-66a1-4060-aec4-2a5a54c2a99f" data-vars-headline="Biden condemns &quot;antisemitic&quot; rally at Philadelphia falafel shop" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/10/israel-hamas-city-hall" target="_self">feel viscerally and personally</a>.

Mike Allen

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Biden condemns "antisemitic" rally at Philadelphia falafel shop

Behind the Curtain: U.S. not ready for era of robotic, AI world wars

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