Debate, court rulings give Trump a summer bump
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Former President Trump during a campaign event. Photo: Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images
It's hard to imagine a better week of news for Donald Trump — a positive new poll, followed by President Biden's disastrous debate performance and a Supreme Court ruling delaying the former president's most serious criminal trial.
Why it matters: Trump gets to ride the wave into a critical phase of his campaign and the Republican National Convention in two weeks, while Democrats publicly question whether they backed the wrong candidate.
The big picture: If Trump wins the Nov. 5 election, analysts could point to the last several days as the moment the tide turned. At the very least, it's the low point of Biden's campaign. Here's a recap:
- Wednesday, the latest New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump with his biggest lead yet over Biden among likely voters — despite his May 30 felony conviction. The Times noted the poll was an outlier.
- Thursday, Biden had what might be the most disastrous political moment of his career, struggling in a 90-minute debate against Trump, who spewed misinformation but largely kept his cool.
- It fueled a weekend of wall-to-wall coverage of a dismayed Democratic Party and speculation over whether the president could be persuaded to withdraw from the race.
- On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling that could provide a clearer path for a potential second Trump administration to quickly reverse Biden's climate and other regulatory policies.
- Then, Monday morning, the high court ruled presidents have immunity for official acts — providing Trump cover for some of the criminal charges he faces — and all but guaranteeing that his Jan. 6 case won't go to trial before the election.
What they're saying: "Democrats are descending into total chaos while the Republican Party is united behind President Donald Trump headed into the fall," National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) told Axios in a statement.
- "If this was in September, it’s done. It would be over," GOP strategist Zack Roday, a partner at Ascent, told Axios, adding the fallout gives Republicans an opening to attach down-ballot Democratic incumbents to a weak party leader.
- Trump heralded Monday's ruling as vindication, posting on Truth Social: "The Supreme Court totally dismantled most of the charges against me. Joe Biden should now call off his dogs."
The other side: Democrats admit it was not a great week for Biden but are brushing off some of the concerns and argue it wasn't a particularly winning week for Trump either.
- Since the debate, Trump "has taken his unhinged tirades to social media, radio and rally stages" and is "doubling down on threats to our democracy," Biden campaign director of rapid response Ammar Moussa told Axios.
- The Biden campaign has touted Thursday's debate day as its best grassroots fundraising day ever and is working to use the Supreme Court's ruling to recenter the presidential contest around Trump's role in the Jan. 6 attack.
- "Donald Trump did not have a good debate night either. Voters didn't like what they saw from him," Biden campaign pollster Molly Murphy told MSNBC.
The bottom line: "We've certainly had a strong week," Trump spokesperson Danielle Alvarez told Axios, adding that their "best asset is President Trump" and they have been "nimble" and "effective about maximizing moments."
