Scoop: Donors eye Senate, House to hedge against a Biden loss
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A demonstrator holds a shirt that reads "Retire Joe," outside a fundraiser for President Biden in East Hampton, N.Y., on June 29. Photo: Amanda L. Gordon/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Major Democratic donors are now planning to go bigger on contributions to House and Senate candidates in a bid to build a Capitol Hill firewall around a second Trump term that they view as increasingly likely, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Donors are preparing to shift money toward congressional races as they wait for fuller polling on how damaging President Biden's debate performance was. That data will help determine whether they keep pouring money into a campaign many fear is in trouble.
- It's the beginning of a potential massive political hedge, as skittish donors weigh where their dollars can have the most impact.
- It's also an acknowledgment that they view Biden's chances of besting Trump on Nov. 5 as diminishing. Their dollars might go further down-ballot.
Driving the news: Following Biden's disastrous debate performance, multiple deep-pocketed Democratic donors told party officials that they will increase their commitment to Senate candidates, a national Democrat with knowledge of Senate races told Axios.
- Several donors have already sent new six-figure contributions to Democratic campaigns, they said.
- One example: A swell of high-dollar donors cut new checks for Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego's Arizona Senate bid in the days after the debate, a source familiar with the campaign told Axios.
- Top Democratic fundraisers told Axios they're worried that, after Biden's record $127 million haul in June, funding for the president's re-election bid will dry up in July.
The intrigue: A pair of back-to-back developments — Biden's poor debate showing followed by the Supreme Court's presidential immunity ruling — have Democratic donors fearful that Republicans could end up in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress in January.
- One major Democratic donor upped their support for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by 50% this week, the national Democrat said.
- Sources on Senate Democratic campaigns in battleground states told Axios they'd seen a major post-debate cash influx from large donors and grassroots contributors.
- Democrats face a difficult electoral map this cycle that could make the path to maintaining their narrow Senate majority a difficult one.
Between the lines: Defending against unified Republican control of government could become the top focus of skeptical Democratic donors wary of Biden's chances.
- The down-ballot fundraising bump has extended to the House, with one Democratic representative telling Axios they had the "easiest call time ever" after the debate —referring to designated periods in which House members dial top donors seeking cash.
- Donors are increasingly attuned to the possibility of a Republican trifecta next year, one Senate Democratic campaign communications director observed.
Zoom out: Senate Democrats are already out-polling Biden in almost every battleground state. But they will need significant financial resources, given the uphill battle they face in protecting their majority.
- The DSCC, at least, is already raking in funds. The group had its largest major donor fundraising month in June since 2008, one of the sources said.
- The DSCC's digital and grassroots fundraising operation broke multiple records in the days after the debate, marking its strongest online fundraising stretch this cycle.
The other side: Biden, for his part, is continuing to make his case to donors, including at a fundraiser in Northern Virginia on Tuesday night.
- There, Biden was introduced by Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) as "resilient, optimistic, indefatigable and above all courageous."
- Officials point to the late June surge in contributions, with $38 million arriving in the final days of the month, as evidence that Biden's debate performance hasn't impacted his ability to raise money.
- Biden again conceded at the event that he had a bad debate, saying he "wasn't very smart" for "traveling around the world a couple times" beforehand, according to a pool report.
Axios' Andrew Solender contributed to this report.

