Axios

President Trump's tariffs will cut deficits by $3 trillion over the next decade, $1 trillion less than previously forecast, the Congressional Budget Office said Thursday.

Why it matters: Taking a trillion dollars in deficit reduction off the table may complicate the math around Trump's $2,000 tariff dividend checks — already unpopular with Senate Republicans who want to prioritize the deficit.

The Trump administration unveiled plans for new offshore oil drilling projects off the coasts of California and Florida that in areas that haven't seen drilling in decades — or ever.

The big picture: The proposal, which the Interior Department says is needed to address the nation's "growing energy needs," quickly drew criticism from conservation groups and lawmakers, who warned of risks to coastal communities and wildlife.

Editor's note: For the latest on the Trump peace plan for Ukraine, click here.

President Trump's 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine would force Kyiv to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree it will never join NATO, according to a draft obtained by Axios and verified by a Ukrainian official, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the proposal.

Why it matters: The U.S. side is pushing Ukraine to make a deal on an "aggressive timeline." And despite the plan including proposals Ukraine has repeatedly rejected up to now, President Volodymyr Zelensky is not ruling it out.

A federal judge ruled Thursday that the White House unlawfully deployed the National Guard in D.C. to fight crime, but the order won't take effect immediately.

Why it matters: President Trump, who uniquely controls the D.C. National Guard, made the nation's capital his first stop in his crime crackdown back in August, a model he's attempted to replicate in other big cities.

The White House once again falsely called New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani a "communist" Thursday ahead of the two leaders' expected meeting on Friday.

Why it matters: President Trump and Republicans have cast the democratic socialist as a boogeyman bent on destroying capitalist values, and their rhetoric signals the two opposing figures may be headed for a headline-grabbing Oval Office meeting.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has updated its website to promote the widely debunked claim that vaccines may cause autism.

Why it matters: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has repeatedly linked vaccines to autism, and now the public health agency he oversees is publicly reversing its position to reflect that belief.

• Multiple studies over decades have disproven links between childhood vaccines and developing autism.

State of play: The agency's webpage on vaccines and autism, updated Wednesday, now says the statement that vaccines don't cause autism "is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism."

• "Studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities," the website continues.
• HHS in September released plans to contract with Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute to research connections between vaccines and autism.
• Career scientists at the agency were not consulted about the changes and were caught off guard by them, the Washington Post reported.

The CDC site previously said studies showed there was no connection between receiving vaccines and developing autism.

What they're saying: HHS communications director Andrew Nixon said the agency updated the site to reflect "gold standard, evidence-based science."

• He did not respond to questions about the timing of the change or who was involved.

Zoom in: The CDC website still has a heading that reads "Vaccines do not cause autism" followed by an asterisk. A note further down says the header hasn't been removed "due to agreement with the chair of the U.S. Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee that it would remain on the CDC website."

• During his confirmation process, Kennedy struck an agreement with committee chair Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) that he would not dismantle vaccine safety systems or remove government vaccine guidance.

Cassidy posted on X Thursday: "I'm a doctor who has seen people die from vaccine-preventable diseases. What parents need to hear right now is vaccines for measles, polio, hepatitis B and other childhood diseases are safe and effective and will not cause autism."

• "Any statement to the contrary is wrong, irresponsible, and actively makes Americans sicker."

Peter Sullivan contributed.

This story has been updated with Cassidy's X post.

The Department of Justice is looking into possible issues with its own mortgage fraud investigation of Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), multiple outlets report.

The big picture: The reported scrutiny into the investigation, which has been overseen by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte and Justice Department official Ed Martin, could mark yet another possible roadblock in the probing of President Trump's foes.

House members in both parties are groaning about what they say is the out of control use of censure as a partisan tool — with one member even floating a proposal to raise the threshold for censuring his colleagues.

Why it matters: Censure was once the gravest rebuke the House could give to its members short of expulsion, but its use has exploded in recent years and it has become little more than a slap on the wrist.

This is your chance to own some of the very last circulating pennies, including those struck at the Philadelphia U.S. Mint earlier this month.

Why it matters: These pieces of history will cost you much more than their face value.

President Trump's promised $2,000 tariff dividend checks might not end up being $2,000.

Why it matters: The checks — a theoretical tariff dividend paid to most Americans — have become central to Trump's efforts to show his administration and party are addressing an affordability crisis that tariffs are at least partially fueling.

Air travelers without a federally-compliant REAL ID can still make it through security checkpoints after paying an $18 fee under a new TSA initiative.

The big picture: Transportation officials previously warned that passengers without the approved license or a passport would undergo an alternative identity verification program, which could include additional screening or delays. But the new notice would tack on an extra charge to already expensive flight costs.

It's now up to the Department of Justice to release the Jeffrey Epstein files after President Trump signed Congress' transparency bill into law Wednesday night.

The big picture: Though the Epstein Files Transparency Act compels the DOJ to share all the files related to the Epstein probe, the law contains loopholes that might delay or change how the files look.

The Federal Communications Commission voted to rescind cybersecurity rules for telecommunications providers a year after the U.S. government discovered a wide-reaching, China-backed hack of their networks.

Why it matters: The agency is now relying on industry collaboration to ensure that major telcos can prevent another nation-state cyberattack.

U.S. Ambassador to Israel and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee confirmed to Axios that he met with convicted spy Jonathan Pollard, after the New York Times first reported the meeting on Thursday.

The big picture: Pollard, an analyst for the U.S. Naval Criminal Investigation Service, was convicted of giving Israel classified documents in the mid-1980s and sentenced to life in prison. He served nearly 30 years before being released on parole in 2015. He moved to Israel in 2020.

President Trump on Thursday appeared to call for a group of Democratic congressional veterans to be punished by "DEATH" for encouraging the military not to follow unlawful orders.

Why it matters: The call represents an escalation of violent rhetoric towards Trump's perceived political enemies, and comes at a time when the president is using the military in unprecedented ways both domestically and internationally.

The Trump administration says it is continuing its "surge" of Border Patrol resources in Charlotte despite local officials stating otherwise.

Why it matters: Mecklenburg County Sheriff Garry McFadden said Thursday morning that federal officials told him "Operation Charlotte's Web" was over. But just hours later, U.S. Customs and Border Protection sent a contradictory message — prompting citywide confusion and uncertainty.

• "The operation is not over and it is not ending anytime soon," Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers is demanding answers from fast-fashion giant Shein over the possible sale o U.S. consumers of dolls "with a childlike appearance."

The big picture: The rare cross-party scrutiny piles onto years of criticism the Chinese-founded online retailer has faced over its environmental and labor practices and comes as it contends with new trade barriers to its sale of ultra-cheap goods.

America's political leaders gathered at the National Cathedral on Thursday to pay respects to the late Vice President Dick Cheney.

The big picture: Cheney, vice president to former President George W. Bush, was a pivotal figure as America responded to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and throughout the subsequent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll on Thursday that he's willing to work with the Trump administration on its new plan for peace in Ukraine, U.S. and Ukrainian officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: The plan calls on Ukraine to make enormous concessions, including handing over territory to Russia that Ukraine currently controls. But rather than reject it outright, Zelensky agreed to negotiate — and his office said he expects to discuss it with President Trump in the coming days.

Anthropic has promoted Sasha de Marigny to chief communications officer, Axios is first to report.

Why it matters: de Marigny's team is working to differentiate Anthropic from its AI competitors.

U.S. companies are rethinking voluntary ESG reporting amid political pressures and shifting regulations.

Why it matters: What used to be key strategic narratives have fizzled out to check-the-box exercises for most.

Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) said Thursday he will force a vote on expelling Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) from Congress after she was indicted by a federal grand jury.

Why it matters: The move comes as the House is growing weary of the increased use of expulsion and censure, with lawmakers groaning that they have become partisan tools rather than meaningful sanctions.

The indictment of Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) followed years of House ethics scrutiny over alleged campaign finance violations, accusations that have plagued most of her time in office.

The big picture: The South Florida Democrat had already faced a primary challenger who has attacked her over ethics concerns, criticism amplified by the federal indictment.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) was indicted by a federal grand jury in Florida for allegedly stealing $5 million in FEMA overpayments to her company and funneling some of the money into her congressional campaign.

Why it matters: Cherfilus-McCormick faces up to 53 years in prison if convicted, Justice Department prosecutors said in a press release announcing the indictment.

A former congressional staffer for Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) has been charged for allegedly staging her own assault, the Justice Department said on Wednesday.

The big picture: The woman was charged with conspiring and falsely reporting to law enforcement following an alleged July 2025 attack by three men at a nature preserve in Egg Harbor Township, New Jersey.

Big Tech has defeated its bipartisan critics, setting itself up to get even bigger.

The big picture: There is widespread agreement in D.C. that a small handful of companies have become uncomfortably powerful.

• But almost all efforts to stem the tide have failed, leaving politicians with few deliverables beyond viral videos of CEOs being berated during congressional hearings.

Lawmakers are losing hope for a deal to extend the Affordable Care Act's enhanced subsidies, with leaders in both parties admitting the odds of a bipartisan deal are slim to none.

Why it matters: The Senate will vote next month on extending the subsidies, which cover 22 million people and expire at the end of the year. Republicans are uniting against an extension, with President Trump pushing against it.

Congressional Hispanic Caucus chair Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday became the latest House Democrat being targeted by a leftist primary challenger.

Why it matters: Progressives, emboldened by democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani's win in the New York City mayoral election, are trying to unseat as many old guard House Democrats as they can.

The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday in a release delayed by the record-long government shutdown.

Why it matters: The labor market was in better shape than previously thought in September, complicating the economy's current picture.

Everywhere Republicans look, they see big political trouble. Worse, they think things will get much bleaker before better as AI spreads through 2026.

• They see it in the top November races, where they got cooked.
• They see it in rising internal MAGA drama and division.
• And they increasingly see it in private and public polls showing President Trump's persistently plummeting popularity on key issues.

Why it matters: Step back and survey the political landscape. Republicans aren't only losing elections, they're consistently losing support on prices and the economy, in all polls, big or small, Republican or Democrat, over a several-month period. You can't spin yourself out of reality.

Top House Democrats on Thursday are due to unveil a plan to expand Medicare drug price negotiations in a bid to lower health costs.

Why it matters: The measure has no chance of being passed in this Congress, but it serves as a marker of where Democrats could go if they flip control of the House in the midterms.

ICE gets all the attention, but a new cluster of joint task forces is quietly becoming a potent part of President Trump's mass deportations push.

Why it matters: A single joint task force raid last weekend in San Antonio netted more arrests than ICE and Border Patrol's high-profile entry into Charlotte, North Carolina.

Your financial situation — not just what you earn but whether you're in over your head — is strongly linked to how you feel about democracy, according to a significant new study by Gallup and the Charles F. Kettering Foundation.

Why it matters: Inflation, rising debt, affordability and the current state of politics are shaking Americans' views about their system of rights, freedoms and governance, though most don't have a better alternative in mind.

President Trump signed a bill ordering the Department of Justice to release all of the files related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, he announced on Wednesday night.

Why it matters: The bill that passed in Congress on Tuesday requires the DOJ to "make publicly available" within 30 days "a searchable and downloadable format all unclassified records, documents, communications, and investigative materials in the possession" of the department, including the FBI and U.S. attorneys' offices, that relate to Epstein.

Consumers scrambling to take advantage of expiring tax credits for electric cars drove a record-breaking quarter of U.S. clean-energy investments, according to a new report.

Why it matters: It shows that policy matters, especially if it's coming or going.

President Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani will meet at the White House on Friday, both sides confirmed on Wednesday night.

Why it matters: Trump and Mamdani have been critical of each other for months, and the president threatened to withhold federal funding for NYC if the democratic socialist won the mayoral election.

Former Harvard University president Larry Summers is taking leave from teaching at the college as it investigates his ties to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, the school and the former treasury secretary confirmed Wednesday night.

The big picture: Summers, who served in the Clinton administration, announced Monday that he would be "stepping back from public commitments" after the House Oversight Committee released a trove of Epstein files that included email correspondence between Summers and Epstein.

A group of House Democrats voted with Republicans on Wednesday to defeat a measure that would have kicked embattled Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) off the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees.

Why it matters: The measure was forced to a vote by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), making this an extremely rare moment of party infighting stemmed by bipartisan cooperation.

The House voted unanimously Wednesday to repeal a provision tucked into the recently passed government funding bill that allows senators to sue the Justice Department for up to $500,000 if their phone records are seized without their knowledge

Why it matters: Senators acted with the blessing of Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), blindsiding House members who were furious about it.

President Trump did not get an invitation to former Vice President Dick Cheney's funeral that's taking place on Thursday, a source familiar with the matter tells Axios.

Why it matters: Sitting presidents typically attend the funerals of former presidents and vice presidents, but the George W. Bush administration VP's previous support for Trump soured after the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot and he publicly criticized the GOP leader in a 2022 campaign ad for his daughter, then-Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

House Democrats are facing a surge of progressive primary challenges inspired by New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani that lawmakers say shouldn't be lightly dismissed.

Why it matters: There's a clear burst of anti-establishment energy in the Democratic Party right now, and the left is eager to test its limits and see how much power they can capture in New York, D.C. and elsewhere.

A group of Chicago-area clergy is suing the Department of Homeland Security, saying it's violating their religious rights by blocking them from ministering inside an immigrant processing facility.

Why it matters: They argue the denials violate their constitutional and religious freedom rights, including the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, when DHS denied clergy entry to administer communion and provide spiritual guidance inside the Broadview ICE facility.