Axios

North Carolina swing voters are split over whether former President Trump should go to jail after his historic conviction on 34 felony counts in New York, according to our latest Engagious/Sago focus groups.

Why it matters: It's unlikely that Trump will receive a lengthy prison sentence, but some North Carolina swing voters fear jailing the presumptive GOP presidential nominee would cause chaos.

After going years without speaking to Donald Trump, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) joined fellow Republicans in meeting with the ex-president Thursday— and the two shared a fist bump.

Why it matters: The two GOP leaders hadn't spoken since December 2020 — just before a mob of Trump supporters crashed into the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to try to stop Congress from certifying Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 election.

Former President Trump is endorsing former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan's Senate campaign run.

Why it matters: Trump's comments to Fox News mark a surprising turn in Trump's posture toward the moderate Republican particularly after Hogan told voters to respect the jury's verdict in the New York hush money case.

President Biden said Thursday that he will not commute Hunter Biden's eventual sentence in his federal gun trial and reaffirmed that he would not pardon his son.

Why it matters: Biden's remarks during a news conference at the G7 conference come after the White House on Wednesday appeared to not rule out a possible commutation for Hunter's sentence.

Microsoft president Brad Smith told lawmakers Thursday that the company's new internal security plans will address problems raised by a whistleblower in a new ProPublica investigation.

Why it matters: The investigation raised serious concerns over whether Microsoft ignored evidence of a critical security vulnerability that Russian hackers exploited years later in the infamous SolarWinds incident.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is the odd one out among the leaders at this year's G7 — not because of her hard-right politics, but because her approval rating is above 40%.

Why it matters: Meloni's brand of politics is on the rise in Europe, as Sunday's EU elections proved, and she's hosting a who's who of humbled PMs and presidents.

The Senate Judiciary Committee said Thursday it found at least three trips that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas did not list on financial disclosure forms.

Why it matters: It comes amid a growing drumbeat of scrutiny by Democrats in Congress towards Thomas and fellow conservative Justice Samuel Alito.

The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled in favor of Starbucks in a labor battle involving the firing of seven workers who tried unionizing one of the coffee giant's Memphis stores.

Why it matters: The decision overturns a National Labor Relations Board order to reinstate the fired workers and will make it harder for the administrative body to stop companies from violating labor laws.

Former President Trump urged House Republicans on Thursday to adopt a measured tone on abortion on the 2024 campaign trail and to embrace exceptions to restrictions on the procedure, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Abortion has emerged as Democrats' most potent political weapon in the two years since Roe v. Wade was overturned, a reality the former president acknowledged during a closed-door Capitol Hill meeting.

Senate Republicans on Thursday blocked a bill aimed at ensuring federal protections for in vitro fertilization (IVF), as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) forced them to take another difficult vote on a hot-button election issue.

Why it matters: Democrats are trying to hold Republicans' feet to the fire on reproductive rights two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ahead of the 2024 elections. The GOP is trying to dodge those bullets.

1. The U.S. says it's monitoring Russian ships that entered Cuba's harbor in Havana yesterday morning for alleged naval exercises.

• U.S. officials claim it's an attempt from Vladimir Putin's government to show strength amid Washington's support of Ukraine.
• Cuba has assured officials across the Americas that the ships do not carry nuclear weapons.

2. Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum met with U.S. officials this week, including Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, a Biden administration advisor, to discuss bilateral issues like trade.

• Sheinbaum, who is set to take office Oct. 1 for a six-year term, has seen her transition period rocked by a stock tumble.
• Investors say they are worried about proposed constitutional changes, such as making judgeships elected positions instead of appointments.

Today we celebrate Karol Hernández, whose debut children's book, "I Am La Chiva — The Colorful Bus of the Andes," is being released by Penguin Random House next month!

• Karol's book introduces children to the Andes in the hope of sparking curiosity about Colombian culture and beyond.
• The book was illustrated by Lorena Alvarez Gomez.
• When she's not writing, Karol works in marketing and as a faculty fellow at Lipscomb University in Nashville.

Congrats, Karol!

🎤 Have you recently accomplished something you're proud of? Let us know by replying to this email!

Former President Trump's first visit to Capitol Hill since the Jan. 6 Capitol riot was met with fierce disdain from Democratic lawmakers.

Why it matters: For members of Congress in both parties, memories of the violence of Jan. 6 are still fresh. While Republicans have largely absolved the former president, most Democrats aren't so quick to forgive.

The U.S. Supreme Court threw out its biggest abortion-related case since overturning Roe v. Wade two years ago, saying Thursday that doctors opposed to a commonly used abortion pill lacked legal standing.

Why it matters: Rejecting the highly anticipated case preserves access to mifepristone but allowed the court to skirt making a ruling on the merits of the case.

Former President Trump told House Republicans in a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill Thursday that Milwaukee, the site of the Republican National Convention, is a "horrible" city, a GOP lawmaker told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump often paints Democratic-led cities as overrun by crime and undocumented immigrants. He has previously alleged — without evidence — that Milwaukee was a hub of voter fraud in the 2020 election.

A conservative group with close ties to the House GOP leadership is launching a $9.5 million ad campaign targeting 10 vulnerable Democrats on immigration, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The big buy by the American Action Network is a clear indication that Republicans believe that concerns about immigration and border security can help them win up-for-grabs congressional seats in November.

Former President Donald Trump boasted about his polling in blue states and showered praise on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) during his first visit to Capitol Hill since his supporters stormed the halls of Congress to protest his election defeat 3½ years ago.

Why it matters: Trump's visit was officially to discuss election and policy strategy, but it also symbolized his official return to Washington as the Republican Party's leader.

The Supreme Court on Thursday unanimously rejected an attempt to trademark a phrase about former President Trump's hands to sell on T-shirts.

The big picture: It ruled that the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office correctly rejected a California lawyer's attempt to patent the phrase "Trump too small" because it violated the office's policy against trademarking a living person's name without that person's consent.

The fight over abortion pills has been escalating since before Roe v. Wade was overturned, but the Supreme Court on Thursday threw out one of the most significant challenges to date to the widely used drug mifepristone.

Why it matters: Nearly two years after its seismic Dobbs decision, which ended the right to federal abortion in the U.S., the Supreme Court tossed a challenge aimed at curtailing mifepristone access.

A record 32% of voters say they would only vote for candidates for major offices if they share their views on abortion, according to a new Gallup poll out Thursday.

Why it matters: The surge in single-issue voters who are "pro-choice" could spell trouble for vulnerable Republicans. Some have already distanced themselves from hardline views on abortion over fears of an Election Day rout in November.

President Biden's re-election campaign was out with a new ad Thursday tying former President Trump to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

Why it matters: The 30-second ad comes just ahead of Trump's planned visit to Capitol Hill to meet with Republican lawmakers, marking his first return to the Capitol since the Jan. 6 attack.

Howard Fineman — legendary to one generation as Newsweek's chief political correspondent, and to the next as one of the first famous TV pundits — liked to say former MSNBC "Hardball" host Chris Matthews reminded him of his dad:

• He both asked and answered the questions.

Former President Trump is set to campaign in Detroit this week to meet with local pastors amid an effort to court Black voters.

The big picture: The 45th president, who was convicted last month of 34 felony counts for falsifying business records, will spend the day after his 78th birthday in northwest Detroit.

President Biden's campaign is hitting former President Trump and his GOP colleagues over their positioning on in vitro fertilization in a new digital video released Thursday.

Why it matters: Protecting IVF has become a top campaign issue for Democrats after an Alabama Supreme Court ruling froze access to the treatment in the state.

Former President Trump appears to be making stunning inroads with young voters as he stakes out youth-friendly positions that defy GOP orthodoxy and contradict past statements.

Why it matters: The prospect of Trump coming within striking distance of winning young voters — which shows up in poll after poll — would have seemed unthinkable at the outset of the cycle.

Joe Biden, busy being president, is leaving most of the prep sessions for his big debate against Donald Trump to the last minute.

• Trump's team says the ex-president doesn't need much practice.

Why it matters: Their June 27 showdown — two weeks from tonight on CNN — is one of the few opportunities either candidate will have to shake up a race that's been stubbornly static.

U.S. Capitol Police arrested eight protesters who disrupted the Congressional Baseball Game by running onto the field at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday night.

The big picture: The activist group Climate Defiance, which has disrupted multiple political events as it campaigns against the use of fossil fuels, claimed responsibility for the demonstration at the annual charity game that features Democrats and Republicans from the U.S. House and the Senate.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' appointees unanimously approved a $17 billion Walt Disney World development deal with the company on Wednesday evening.

Why it matters: The Central Florida Tourism Oversight District board's approval marks the end of a yearslong feud between DeSantis and Disney, which the company argued stemmed from its opposition to the Florida "Don't Say Gay" law signed in 2022.