Wave watch: Inside the Democratic primary turnout surge
Data: Ballotpedia; Chart: Chris Canipe and Neal Rothschild/Axios
Democratic voter turnout in this year's House primaries increased in each of the 19 competitive, comparable House districts compared to 2014, and doubled in more than two thirds of them. That's far better than Republican voter turnout, which increased in 14 of those districts but didn't double in any of them.
Why it matters: Poor turnout has been the scourge of Democrats' efforts to win congressional elections in the last decade. But this data suggests that a surge of anti-Trump enthusiasm could boost their turnout in November — and not just in already-blue areas, but in parts of the country that could deliver control of the House to the Democrats.
Methodology: This analysis focuses on 19 House races out of 68 races classified by Cook Political Report as Lean Republican, Tossup or Lean Democrat. These are the 19 races that had candidates from both parties on the ballot this year and in 2014.
Other analyses below include districts where one party or the other had candidates on the ballot in both years.
The other side: If Republican voters become more enthusiastic about the election because of the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation fight — as GOP leaders predict they will — this pattern could look different on election day. This analysis is also limited to the House, and doesn't shed light on the Senate races.
Between the lines:
Republican enthusiasmis up, but not by as much as Democrats. GOP engagement has been more consistent from election to election.
Of the 28 competitive districts where Republicans were on the primary ballot in '14 and '18, 21 had primary turnout increases.
There were also 28 competitive districts where Democrats were on the ballot in both years, and there were turnout increases in 27 of them. The exception: NC-13, a Republican-held tossup seat.
The biggest spikesin primary turnout for Democrats:
IL-14: R-held, Lean R. 2014: 7,875 2018: 51,251
TX-07: R-held, Tossup. 2014: 6,589 2018: 33,275
NJ-11: R-held, Lean D. 2014: 9,149 2018: 45,629
CA-45: R-held, Tossup. 2014: 24,721 2018: 81,193
The biggest spikes in primary turnout for Republicans:
New data: Democrats crushing Republicans in 2018 elections
Note: The 2018 data is preliminary through Sept. 12 and excludes runoffs, special elections and candidates who ran unopposed. Prior data includes unopposed candidates if they were on the ballot. Louisiana will hold their party primaries on Nov. 6 followed by a general election on Dec. 8; Data: Federal Election Commission (1998 to 2016) and Associated Press (2018); Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios
Riding a surge of enthusiasm in opposition to President Trump, more Democrats turned out in the primaries for House elections than Republicans this year — the first time that has happened since 2008.
Why it matters: 2008 was the last time Democrats won a majority in the House. They lost it in 2010, when Republican primary turnout skyrocketed and Democratic turnout plummeted — the reverse of what's happening now.
What's next: David Brady, electoral politics expert and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, predicts around a 7% Democratic turnout advantage in November driven by women, and particularly Independent women.
Meantime, Republicans are trying to energize their voters, since Republican National Committee polling suggests a majority of Trump voters don't believe Democrats could win the House, per Axios' Jonathan Swan.
The Senate races where Trump approval is losing ground
Photo: Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images
President Trump's approval ratings have declined in all but one state with a competitive 2018 Senate race, but he's only below 50% in four of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, according to Morning Consult's monthly tracking poll.
Why it matters: To win the Senate — a goal that's less likely than winning the House — Democrats would need to win 14 of these 17 races. And with a packed fall campaign schedule, Trump plans to make the midterms more, not less, of a referendum on him.
Note: Includes races categorized as "Likely", "Lean" and "Tossup" by Cook Political Report as of Aug. 31. Data: Morning Consult and Cook Political Reports; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios
Among the races classified by Cook Political Report as "likely" Democrat or Republican, "lean" Democrat or Republican, or "tossup":
Trump has lost the mostground since inauguration in Arizona, Florida, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, he is below 50% approval in four of them (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and at 50% in two others (North Dakota and Florida).
He's above 50% in the rest, and soaring at 63% approval in West Virginia.
The bottom line: Trump's approval ratings are well below 50% nationally — and that's the level where the president's party usually loses more congressional seats in midterm elections. But the state-by-state map shows us why the Senate isn't as vulnerable as the House.
