Americans have grown to hate presidents of the other party
Here's how badly the country has fractured over President Trump: He has a near-universal approval among Republicans, while three in four Democrats want him impeached. But it's not like the last few presidents united the country, either.
The back story: It wasn't always this way. Republican Dwight Eisenhower had 49% approval from Democrats during his presidency, as did John F. Kennedy from Republicans. Now, that kind of support for a president from the other party has practically disappeared: Barack Obama had 14% approval from Republicans, and 7% of Democrats approve of Trump.
Data: Pew Research Center, Gallup. Reproduced from a Pew Research Center report; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios
What's behind the trend:
Parties are a lot more ideological, and therefore polarized, than they used to be. Research from the Brookings Institution finds that the gap between average ideological scores for Democrats and Republicans in Congress has grown progressively wider since 1953.
The rise of tribalism made the partisan divide less about policy and more about culture. This accelerated under Ronald Reagan, and then took off with cable news in the late 1990s and then digital news a decade later. Those platforms gave Americans ecosystems to have views reinforced and opposing ones pilloried, breeding a non-stop us vs. them feedback loop.
Trumphas been an exceptional force for polarization, seeking out cultural flashpoints and making criticism of the other side part of the daily routine.
“For almost all of American history, even presidents with strong views have realized that part of their job was to try to unite the country. Starting with Donald Trump’s inaugural address, he suggests an opposite point of view — that uniting the country is not part of his job, and that he thinks a president becomes more powerful if he divides.”
— Presidential historian Michael Beschloss to Axios
Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle
Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.
Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.
*Ohio vote totals are preliminary; Notes: The Cook Partisan Voter Index is a measure of how liberal or conservative a district leans based on the two most recent presidential elections; Data: Ballotpedia, Cook Political Report, and Associated Press; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios
The big picture: Broadway leaned hard into Hollywood this year
Jamie Parker as Harry Potter, Erika Kenningsen as Cady Heron, Caissie Levy as Elsa, Ethan Slater as SpongeBob
At Sunday's Tony Awards, three of the four nominees for Best Musical are "Mean Girls," "Frozen," and "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Broadway Musical" — and "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child" is the frontrunner for Best Play.
The big picture: A show with an original concept, original music and staying power is a rare breed on Broadway. We've seen "Hamilton" and "Dear Evan Hansen" in the last two years, but otherwise, the landscape is thin. Broadway is largely dominated by mass culture crowd pleasers, old-reliable revivals, jukebox musicals and takeoffs on movies.
The state of play: After a brief run of original hits, Broadway this year opted to churn out surefire moneymakers with mass appeal with little to show for acclaimed original shows. Even the fourth nominee for Best Musical, "The Band's Visit," was adapted from a 2007 movie.
Retreads, jukebox musicals and adapted productions:
Since 2000 on Broadway:
"The Lion King" has grossed in the top 3 every single year.
"Aladdin" has grossed in the top 6 each year since it premiered in 2014.
"Jersey Boys" held a top 10 spot for 9 straight years.
"Mary Poppins" held a top 10 spot for six straight years.
"Beauty and the Beast" held a top 10 spot for six years.
Other productions that grossed in the top 10 at least 3 straight years: Matilda, Spamalot, Kinky Boots, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark, Billy Elliot, Beautiful, The Producers, Hairspray.
The old hands
"Phantom of the Opera," the longest continuously running Broadway show — this production has been running since 1988 — is a perennial top 10 grosser.
"Mamma Mia," originally produced in 1999, held a top 10 box office spot between 2002-12.
The modern originals:
Shows that grossed in the the top 10 for at least two consecutive years:
"Wicked" — adapted from a book — was the biggest Broadway hit of the millennium until "Hamilton" came along. It held the top spot at the box office for 9 straight years following its premiere in 2003.
"Book of Mormon," which debuted in 2011 and has held a spot in the top 10 ever since, gets points as the rare hit comedy.
"Hamilton" set Broadway on fire critically and financially after its 2015 premiere, cementing itself firmly in the top spot. It raked in a record $157.8 million in 2017.
"Dear Evan Hansen" broke out last year and now finds itself 4th behind "Hamilton," "Lion King," and "Wicked."
"Come From Away," set in the aftermath of 9/11, was first made at an Ontario college in 2013 and made the leap to Broadway in 2017.
