May 13, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Trump leads Biden in five swing states, new polls show

Former President Donald Trump points to the left as he speaks onstage at a campaign rally.

Former President Trump speaks during a campaign event in Wildwood, N.J., on Saturday, May 11, 2024. Photo: Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Former President Trump leads in five of six key swing states in New York Times/Siena College polls out Monday morning.

Why it matters: "Trump's strength is largely thanks to gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters," writes Nate Cohn, the Times' chief political analyst.

Zoom in: In a head-to-head race with Trump, President Biden squeaks out a lead among likely voters in Michigan.

  • Among registered voters (a looser screen), Biden leads in Wisconsin. Trump leads among likely voters in Wisconsin.
  • Trump leads both groups in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania, per the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena polls.
  • The polls surveyed 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9.

In Senate races, Democratic candidates led in all four states polled: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.

  • "When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for the likely electorate," the Times said of the polls.

The other side: "The only consistency in recent public polls is inconsistency. These results need to be weighed against the 30-plus polls that show Biden up and gaining," Biden campaign pollster Geoff Garin said.

  • "The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today's poll."

Go deeper: How working-class Latino voters could upend Democrats in 2024

Editor's note: This article was updated with a quote from a Biden pollster.

Go deeper