Apr 13, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Biden ticks up in polls post-SOTU, but still trails Trump

Illustration of a series of pie and bar charts laid out and colored to resemble the arrangement of the U.S. flag

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Former President Trump leads President Biden by one point among registered voters nationwide, 46% to 45%, in the widely covered New York Times/Siena College poll — a Biden gain from February, when Trump led by four.

Why it matters: Biden has been improving in polls since last month's State of the Union.

What they're saying: "You can't exactly call a one-point deficit the 'Biden comeback,'" writes Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn, "but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month."

  • "16 national pollsters (of varying quality) have taken polls before and after the State of the Union. On average, Mr. Biden is running about 1.4 points better in the post-State of the Union polls than in earlier surveys by the same pollsters."

Between the lines: The main reason Biden ticked up in Times/Siena appears to be his improved standing among his 2020 voters — 89% now vs. 83% in February.

  • The poll of 1,059 registered voters has an overall margin of error of ±3.3 percent.

Go deeper: Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll hints at Biden comeback

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