Apr 13, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Biden ticks up in polls post-SOTU, but still trails Trump

Mike Allen

Illustration of a series of pie and bar charts laid out and colored to resemble the arrangement of the U.S. flag — Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Former President Trump leads President Biden by one point among registered voters nationwide, 46% to 45%, in the widely covered New York Times/Siena College poll — a Biden gain from February, when Trump led by four.

Why it matters: Biden has been improving in polls since last month's State of the Union.

What they're saying: "You can't exactly call a one-point deficit the 'Biden comeback,'" writes Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn, "but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month."

"16 national pollsters (of varying quality) have taken polls before and after the State of the Union. On average, Mr. Biden is running about 1.4 points better in the post-State of the Union polls than in earlier surveys by the same pollsters."

Between the lines: The main reason Biden ticked up in Times/Siena appears to be his improved standing among his 2020 voters — 89% now vs. 83% in February.

The poll of 1,059 registered voters has an overall margin of error of ±3.3 percent.

Go deeper: Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll hints at Biden comeback

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Biden ticks up in polls post-SOTU, but still trails Trump

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