Mar 26, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll hints at Biden comeback

A chart showing six swing state polls conducted by Bloomberg and Morning Consult.
Graphic: Bloomberg

President Biden made significant gains against Donald Trump during the past month in six of seven 2024 swing states, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll out Tuesday.

Why it matters: It's the first time in months that the swing state poll has Biden within striking distance of Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.

  • The poll measured a period in which Biden followed his impassioned State of the Union address with a swing state tour and a series of sharp attacks on Trump.

Zoom in: Biden performed best in the Rust Belt swing states, where both candidates have been arguing they are the best to resuscitate American industry.

  • The polls showed the president with a 1-point lead in Wisconsin and tied with Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
  • Biden drew closer in Nevada, trailing Trump there 46-44 — well within the poll's margin of error for that state.
  • Despite some Biden gains, Trump's lead remained significant in Arizona (5 points) and North Carolina (6 points).
  • Trump's lead grew only in Georgia, where Bloomberg/Morning Consult had him ahead by 7 points, up from 6 in February.

Voters remain pessimistic about the national economy, the poll found — but increasingly optimistic about their local economy.

  • Only 32% of swing state voters surveyed said the U.S. economy was headed in the "right direction." But 53% said the economy in their city or town was — a 4-point jump in the past month.

The poll confirmed that third-party and independent candidates — especially Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — could be a significant factor in November.

  • In all swing states combined, Trump led Biden 47-43.
  • When other candidates were included, Trump's lead ticked up a point, to 43-38. Kennedy got 9%.

Between the lines: The poll shows a central question of the election is whether Trump is better at mobilizing Republicans for him, or Democrats against him.

  • Since October, Trump has reached 50% of the vote just once in one of the seven swing states — North Carolina.
  • Biden's campaign is betting it can convince the rest of the electorate to rally for Biden — or at least against Trump.

The intrigue: Bloomberg/Morning Consult asked swing state voters about Trump's prospective vice-presidential candidates: Govs. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Arkansas) and Kristi Noem (South Dakota); Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.); and Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.).

  • For everyone but Huckabee Sanders, who was Trump's press secretary in the White House, the vast majority of voters either had never heard of them or had no opinion.
  • 32% of voters had a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Huckabee Sanders.

Methodology: The poll was taken of 4,392 registered voters in Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It was conducted March 8-15 with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; ±4 points in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin; ±5 points in Nevada, and ±1 point in the combined sample of all swing states.

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