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The 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, which killed hundreds of people in the U.S. and Canada, was a harbinger of a new generation of climate disasters to come, a new study finds.

Why it matters: In the most comprehensive analysis to date of what made the heat wave so extreme, scientists ruled out the possibility this was a "black swan" event, which is unpredictable and unlikely to recur.

The big picture: Instead, the new study in Nature Climate Change shows that amplifying feedbacks between factors such as unusually dry soils and a highly contorted jet stream added to the effects of long-term climate change.

This dialed up the heat to unprecedented levels for the region.

The wavy jet stream pattern, itself tied to climate change, helped give rise to a record-strong heat dome that parked itself over British Columbia and the Northwest U.S. in early summer.

The study finds that in the Northwest but likely other areas as well, multiple trends are pushing the climate into a zone where such extremes are far more likely.

“The background warming, the atmospheric dynamics, and the soil moisture deficiency interacted in a way that amplified this event beyond a normal extreme,” study coauthor Kai Kornhuber, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, tells Axios in an interview.

Between the lines: In the 1950s, the study states, the prospect of such a heat wave occurring in the Pacific Northwest was virtually impossible, but climate change had transformed that into a 1-in-200-year event by 2021.

Part of the reason for this is the gradual drying seen across the region.

"Our study is the first to pinpoint how warming-induced land drying has transitioned the Pacific Northwest from a wet region without effective soil moisture-temperature feedbacks to a transitional climate between wet and dry," said study coauthor Mingfang Ting of Columbia University.

"That can strengthen land-atmosphere feedbacks and thus large temperature swings."

Kornhuber says that while it is "encouraging" that models used for weather forecasting captured the heat wave's likely development and severity, climate models used to conduct risk assessments for heat hazards in coming decades may be flawed.

If they are missing some of the feedbacks the study identifies, climate models could underplay the risk of a repeat or even worse event.

Looking ahead, if climate change is held to 2°C above the pre-industrial average, 2021-type Pacific Northwest heat events are likely to take place at a frequency of about once every 10 years.

Yes, but: Even if all existing emissions pledges are met, the world is currently headed for greater than 2°C of warming.

What they're saying: "Our study supports a very direct conclusion that extreme heat like this will only become more and more likely — both in this region and across the globe, especially where heat stress is already extremely high — as more fossil fuels are burned," lead author Samuel Bartusek of Columbia University told Axios via email.

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave was a climate change warning

This event was not a black swan event, the study finds.

Illustration of a thermometer shaped like an upwards arrow, with the mercury rising.

Heat waves

Climate change

Extreme weather

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Energy & Environment

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Science

Global warming is leading to more extreme weather in Australia, like the ongoing flooding in the southeast  — and these extremes are happening at an increased pace across the country, per a new climate report. 

Threat level: Australia is facing more extreme heat events, intense heavy rainfall, longer fire seasons and sea level rise, according to the biennial State of the Climate Report by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, published Wednesday.

Of note: The report highlights global warming's role in the catastrophic floods that have hit multiple regions of Australia this year, including in the southeast, where deadly floodwaters continue to threaten communities.

The Insurance Council of Australia estimates the insurance cost of this year's floods in the states of Queensland and New South Wales is more than AU$5.56 billion (US$3.76 billion) — "making it Australia's most costly natural disaster," the ICA said in a report published Thursday. 

The big picture: Heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense and the number of short-duration heavy rainfall is expected to increase in the future.

Eastern Australia experienced one of its most significant flood periods ever during La Niña events in 2021 and 2022.

There's been an overall decline in rainfall between April and October across southern Australia in recent decades. But in the northern part of the country, rainfall has increased since the 1970s.

By the numbers: Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit) since national records began in 1910, per the report.

Sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of almost 1.89°F since 1900, which has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and sea, according to the report.

1 big thing: Concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, are at the highest levels seen on Earth in at least two million years, according to Jaci Brown, director of CSIRO's Climate Science Centre.

"The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are continuing to rise, and this is causing Australia’s climate to warm," Brown said.

What we're watching: The report projects increases in air temperatures, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes in coming decades, according to Karl Braganza, the Bureau of Meteorology’s manager of climate environmental prediction services. 

Meanwhile, the length of bushfire seasons has increased across Australia in recent decades, per the report.

"We're expecting to see longer fire seasons in the future for the south and east, and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days," Braganza said.

State of play: Fossil-fuel exports have been in high demand in Australia in recent years, despite Australians experiencing a series of climate-change-related related extreme weather events — from deadly wildfires to the recent flooding.

Australia's Labor government was elected earlier this year on a pledge to cut the country's emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and the bill passed in August.

The bottom line: Michael Battaglia, lead of Towards Net Zero Mission, a division of CSIRO, noted in the statement that Australia faces "significant challenges to support and coordinate the shifts across infrastructure, regulation, skills, technology, finance and investment that is needed for the transition to a low-emission economy."

Deadly climate change-fueled floods inundate Australia's east coast

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How climate change helped drive Australia's fires

Report: Climate extremes hitting Australia, more intense weather to come

The country faces more extreme heat events, intense heavy rainfall, longer fire seasons and sea level rise.

A kayaker passes a submerged bus on a flooded street in Milton, Australia, on Feb. 28. Photo: Patrick Hamilton/AFP via Getty Images

Australia

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World

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Economy & Business

A chaotic UN climate summit in Egypt has produced a groundbreaking agreement for wealthy industrial countries to compensate poor nations for the ravages of climate change, but the talks failed to strengthen commitments to curb the use of fossil fuels.

Why it matters: It's the first formal deal to create a fund for "loss and damage," or payments to nations that played almost no role in causing global warming, yet face harm from encroaching seas, stronger storms and other escalating effects.

The summit went far past its scheduled Friday close, into the morning hours on Sunday local time, reflecting the difficulty of talks over compensation, emissions targets, energy policy and more.

Between the lines: The agreement for a fund exceeds expectations going into the summit. 

It also reflects the growing impacts of climate change, from flooding in Pakistan to drought and extreme heat in China. 

Going into the talks, U.S. officials said they opposed establishing a fund as an outcome of this summit, instead favoring a process that could yield a fund by 2024. 

But the U.S. dropped its stance in the face of steadfast opposition from the major alliance of developing countries, and after a change of heart by the EU. 

Yes, but: The COP27 agreement among almost 200 countries in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt leaves most details to be filled in during subsequent rounds of fraught negotiations. For example, the text lacks targets for how much money should be provided in the climate damage fund for poor nations.

"There is a lot of work still to be done on the detail, but the principle is in place and that is a significant mindset shift as we deal with a world in which climate impacts cause profound loss," said Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and one of the Paris Agreement's architects, in a statement. 

Zoom in: While the agreement went further than expected on climate damages, it did not create a new consensus position on another key topic: moving away from using all fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

The agreement omits calls to phase down the use of all fossil fuels, rebuffing India, the EU, the U.S. and other nations pushing for this language.

Instead, the final summit text reiterates last year's outcome at COP26 in Scotland by calling for phasing down the use of coal, and does not address oil and gas.

By the numbers: It also largely repeats language in the COP26 text concerning the 1.5°C temperature limit, which is the more ambitious target set by the Paris Agreement in 2015. 

The world has already warmed by an average of about 1.2°C. Current emissions and policies put the globe course to exceed 2°C of warming by 2100, but studies show that the odds of potentially catastrophic consequences increase significantly once warming exceeds 1.5°C. 

The final text does not contain language calling for a peak in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, which would be needed to meet the long shot 1.5-degree goal. 

The intrigue: The final hours of the talks featured negotiators from small island countries, EU nations and others trying to strengthen the 1.5°C-related wording. 

The bottom line: The COP27 agreement is in some ways historic, since all countries for the first time agreed that the present-day consequences of global warming are severe enough to require financial assistance from the nations that caused much of the problem so far. 

Yet it also failed to advance climate mitigation, potentially making it more likely that the 1.5-degree target will be significantly exceeded. 

What they're saying: "COP27 has done what no other COP has achieved and created a loss and damage fund to support the most impacted communities of climate change," said Mohammed Adow of Power Shift Africa, in a statement. 

"However on a global fossil fuel phase down it’s sad to see countries just copying and pasting the outcome from last year’s COP26 in Glasgow," he said.

At COP27, oil and gas stay out of crosshairs — for now

Climate pledges have only inched forward since last year's summit, UN finds

COP27 summit yields historic deal on climate damage fund

The agreement would pave the way for a fund to compensate developing countries for climate damages.

Young people hold up signs urging countries to take bold action against climate change at COP27 in Egypt.

Participants in a demonstration at COP27 advocate for the 1.5°C temperature target. Photo: Christophe Gateau/picture alliance via Getty Images

COP27

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry has tested positive for COVID-19 and is self-isolating, his spokesperson said Friday, as the UN climate talks entered overtime at the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

The big picture: Major issues remain in the negotiations, which were supposed to wrap up Friday. Kerry's positive COVID test significantly limits the normally hands-on diplomat's ability to maneuver in the fraught final talks. 

Spokesperson Whitney Smith said in a statement that Kerry "is working with his negotiations team and foreign counterparts by phone to ensure a successful outcome of COP27."

He is fully vaccinated and boosted and experiencing mild symptoms, Smith added.

State of play: Kerry had been huddling with his counterparts from the EU, China and other nations during the fragile and complex talks.

Negotiations are expected to continue long into the night on Friday into Saturday.

The most sensitive area of the negotiations is largely centered on whether and how to create a new fund for big, wealthy industrial countries to compensate vulnerable nations already feeling the brunt of climate harms, with more coming in the future.

The U.S., the world's largest historical emitter and currently second-largest behind China, is a key player in discussions over this compensation called "loss and damage" that has emerged as the thorniest topic at the talks.

Kerry self-isolating with COVID as fragile COP27 climate talks enter overtime

Kerry's positive COVID test significantly limits the normally hands-on diplomat's ability to maneuver in the talks.

John Kerry at the COP27 summit on Nov. 16 in Egypt. 

John Kerry at the COP27 summit on Nov. 16 in Egypt. Photo: Dominika Zarzycka/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

A rare weather pattern is causing pre-Thanksgiving frigid air to dive southward from Canada and across the lower 48 states, setting up a "crippling" lake effect snowstorm in the Buffalo, New York, area. 

The big picture: An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure parked over Alaska is causing the jet stream to buckle, opening the refrigerator door from the Arctic. 

A screenshot of an NWS Buffalo tweet noting 2-3 inches of snowfall is hitting Lake Eerie per hour.

Photo: National Weather Service Buffalo/Twitter

Such record-strong high-pressure ridges have been observed with greater frequency as the planet warms overall, paradoxically leading to cold weather outbreaks in some cases. 

Temperatures are running between 10 and 20°F below average across the Midwest, Plains, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

Threat level: With strong winds blowing across the Great Lakes, an extreme lake effect snow event is now underway. Bands of snow with accumulations of more than three inches per hour downwind of Lake Erie in particular were expected to continue through Sunday. 

The snowfall is expected to be "crippling," the National Weather Service warns, with many areas seeing three feet or more. This is likely to include Buffalo. Peak amounts could exceed four or even five feet, the NWS predicts. 

A screenshot of an NWS tweet showing snowfall in Buffalo, New York, which measured at just over 3 inches.

The latest: About a foot of snow had already fallen in Buffalo early Friday. Some areas in or just south of the city were up to 54 inches as of early Friday afternoon, the NWS noted in an update.

As the snow got under way Thursday night, the NWS warned that the intense, narrow snow bands would "produce near-zero visibility, nearly impossible travel, damage to infrastructure, and paralyze the hardest-hit communities."

With cold air blowing from southwest to northeast across the comparably mild, unfrozen lake waters, the atmosphere has become unstable. That's led to instances of thundersnow, which were reported across the Buffalo region throughout the night. 

What we're watching: The snowfall from this event could break the daily snowfall record for Friday, which is 8.2 inches. 

The storm could also trump the highest November daily snowfall record, which occurred in November 2000, and could add up to 24.9 inches to the record, the NWS stated in an online forecast discussion. 

Total snowfall forecast to fall in Buffalo, NY through Sunday.

Snowfall forecast to fall in the Buffalo, New York, area through Sunday afternoon. Image: NWS

This snowstorm is likely to rank among Buffalo's top 10 such events on record. 

State of play: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency on Thursday for the Buffalo and Watertown areas due to the coming snow, with the closure of a nearly 200-mile stretch of the New York State Thruway.

In Erie County, where Buffalo is located, officials issued a driving ban for all except those authorized for emergency travel, effective 9pm Thursday until at least Friday morning. 

The NFL moved the Buffalo Bills' scheduled home game against the Cleveland Browns to Detroit.

By the numbers: In Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska and parts of Colorado, temperatures were running close to 40°F below average for this time of year on Thursday. Nearly the entire country was colder than average on Thursday, with January-like weather invading the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

A total of 238 million Americans saw temperatures at or below 32°F on Thursday morning, according to the NWS. 

Meanwhile, dozens of cold weather records are likely to be set from the Rockies to the Plains and Midwest, on to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by the end of the coming weekend. 

Context: Cold weather outbreaks such as this one are becoming less intense and frequent as the climate warms due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. However, they will still occur in a warmer world, studies show. 

Overall, the planet has warmed by about 1.2°C (2.16°F) since the preindustrial era, with many areas of the country seeing more significant average temperature increases during the period. 

Despite the chill being felt right now, winter is actually the fastest-warming season in much of the lower 48 states.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest forecast information.

Historic snowstorm underway in Buffalo as unusual cold grips the U.S.

Some areas near Buffalo had already received 48 inches of snow as of Friday afternoon.

Heather Ahmed shovels a path after an intense lake-effect snowstorm on Nov. 18 in Hamburg, N.Y.  Photo: John Normile/Getty Images

extreme weather

House Republicans are planning bills on permitting reform to boost all kinds of energy production along with legislation specifically to benefit fossil fuels.

Why it matters: The oil-centric proposals are a sharp turn from efforts by Democrats focused on steep emissions cuts and would face opposition in the Senate and from President Biden.

Driving the news: Rep. Bruce Westerman, the top Republican on the House Natural Resources Committee, told reporters on a phone call Thursday one of his priorities is unlocking quicker government approvals for all kinds of energy projects, from oil to solar. 

Westerman said Republicans also want to pass legislation boosting new mining in the United States. This would give companies making batteries and EVs more domestic options for raw materials. 

He also wants to advance legislation related to forest growth – a climate concept similar to what former President Trump trumpeted with his “Trillion Trees Initiative.” 

The intrigue: Proposals on permitting reform have had buy-in from moderate Democrats and President Biden, while drawing sharp opposition from progressives because it could ease regulatory pressures on extractive industries.

Flashback: Environmentalists – and Republicans – killed a vote before the midterms on faster permits that Biden promised Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in exchange for passing his signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, Axios’ Ben Geman reported at the time. 

Zoom in: Westerman’s office stated in October that Republicans will advance a bill that would force regulators to finish reviews of any kind of construction project on federal lands within one-to-two years. 

Manchin’s deal with Biden included similar deadlines. 

The bigger picture: Republicans want these deadlines to expedite an “all-of-the-above” energy and climate strategy that includes more oil and gas drilling. 

Westerman said Republicans also plan to move bills that would singularly benefit fossil fuel production – a negative for the climate and a likely non-starter with Democrats. 

By comparison, faster approvals could actually benefit Biden’s climate agenda. Wind and solar projects are often on public land and impact waters or rare species guarded under environmental laws. 

At the same time, U.S. carmakers are clamoring for more minerals and materials made here after Democrats nudged them to create local supply chains in the Inflation Reduction Act. Many EV materials currently come from China. 

The bottom line: Republicans will have trouble passing fossil fuel-friendly bills under Biden but the contours of a potential bipartisan deal are emerging around how the bureaucracy considers approving energy projects. 

Yes, but: In a closely divided Congress any political bloc could stop legislative progress, like frustrated progressives or conservatives animated to squash any bill that Biden could claim as a bipartisan win. 

House GOP planning support for fossil fuel production

The plans face opposition in the Senate and from the president

Illustration of a hand in a business suit drawing a red line in front of an oil rig

Energy

The initial draft for a COP27 agreement out this morning omits calls for phasing down all fossil fuels, which means the fraught meeting may not move beyond coal-focused goals from last year's summit.

Why it matters: The 20 pages of preliminary text released by the Egyptian COP president in Sharm el-Sheikh are a blank slate on how to compensate vulnerable nations for climate damages. 

Wording on fossil fuels and specifics on payments for "loss and damage" are two of the most contentious and still-unresolved topics.

The big picture: The lack of a consensus agreement on fossil fuels is a blow to India, the U.S., the EU, small islands, and others that pushed to expand last year's call to phase down "unabated" coal use.

However, it could still reappear in subsequent drafts. 

What the Egyptians put forward is a bulleted list of possible decision language, known as cover text. But instead of advancing the talks, it could actually complicate the task at hand. 

Typically, as talks go down to the wire at such meetings, the decision texts get shorter, but this one grew compared to the first draft. 

Zoom in: The document is notable for what is missing. 

On climate damages, which concern the significant toll global warming is already taking in the countries that did the least to cause the problem, the document does note “deep concern towards the significant financial costs associated with loss and damage.” 

However, talks between industrialized countries and developing nations over establishing a fund to pay for climate damages are bogged down, which led to placeholder language about a possible fund for compensating countries for climate damages. 

As an example of such climate damages, a study released on Wednesday evening found that human-caused global warming made heavy rain that killed more than 800 in Nigeria and other countries this year about 80 times more likely and nearly 20% more intense. 

UN Secretary-General António Guterres addressed negotiators in Egypt after flying from the G20 summit in Bali. "The world is watching and there's a simple message to all of us: stand and deliver," he said. 

"The time for talking on loss and damage finance is over. We need action."

Yes, but: The COP27 document reaffirms central elements of the Glasgow Climate Pact, including the importance of sticking with its 1.5°C temperature limit, doubling climate adaptation funding, and urging countries to make far more ambitious commitments to cutting emissions. 

What they're saying: Nongovernmental organizations involved in the talks were quick to criticize the Egyptian COP leadership for the new text.

"This was intended to be a COP for implementation, where governments could showcase their progress and commit to significant new climate finance, action and targets, but that is not what we have seen," said Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, WWF global climate and energy lead, in a statement. 

What's next: Expect new versions to drop, possibly as early as today, as countries offer their feedback. 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

The summit is likely to go into overtime.

Illustration of two pens criss-crossed forming an X in front of a photograph of flooding waters

COP president Sameh Shoukry speaks at COP27. Photo: Gehad Hamdy/picture alliance via Getty Images

Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced Brazil's return to climate diplomacy after outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro spurned the UN process, and drove up Amazon deforestation. 

Driving the news: Lula got a rock star welcome at COP27 in Egypt and forcefully addressed several critical negotiating sticking points, including climate damages. 

Zoom in: Lula, which takes office in January, declared "Brazil is back" in the fight against global warming, vowing to crack down on deforestation and "punish rigorously" those illegally cutting down forests for agriculture or mining. 

He proposed a new ministry for Indigenous groups and pledged to elevate climate change to the highest levels of his nascent administration. 

He also vowed to rebuild the environmental monitoring and enforcement agencies that Bolsonaro worked to dismantle. 

Lula harshly criticized the failure of industrialized countries to live up to their 2009 promise of providing $100 billion a year to developing nations to cope with climate change impacts. 

Between the lines: Lula addressed a major sticking point at the talks, which is how to deal with the matter of climate damages. Known in the UN treaty process as "loss and damage," this issue concerns the fact that the countries being hit hardest by climate change are the ones that did the least to contribute to it. 

So far, talks in the resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh have yielded no breakthroughs on whether and how industrialized nations like the U.S. should compensate poorer, developing countries for climate damages. 

What they're saying: "We cannot postpone this debate, we need to deal with the reality of countries that have their own physical integrity of their territories threatened and the survival conditions of its inhabitants seriously compromised," he said. 

"It's time to act. We can't waste time anymore. We cannot live with this rush towards the abyss," he added. 

Between the lines: Lula is not the only world leader to come to a climate summit and declare their nation was now back on board with addressing the problem. The leaders of Australia, Canada and the U.S. have done so at various points following elections. 

This illustrates the precariousness of national emissions reduction targets since changes in government can lead to radical shifts in policy. 

However, Brazil is home to a globally-vital rainforest, which plays a major role in storing carbon as well as circulating water worldwide. 

Recent studies have shown that a combination of climate change and deforestation is leading at least parts of the Amazon to be net sources of emissions, rather than sinks. 

The bottom line: "There is no climate security for the world without a protected Amazon. We will spare no effort to bring deforestation and degradation of our biomes to zero by 2030," Lula tweeted Wednesday.

Lula declares "Brazil is back" on climate action

Lula was treated to a rock star welcome at the COP27 summit in Egypt.

Brazil's president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks at COP27.

Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during COP27 in Egypt on Nov. 16. Photo: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty images. 

The G20 summit in Indonesia produced a joint pledge today to maintain the ambitious but long-shot Paris Agreement goal of holding temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

Driving the news: The communique also calls for progress at COP27 on "loss and damage" — compensating poor, vulnerable nations for climate harms.

Why it matters: It may influence diplomats heading into the final days of COP27.

Catch up fast: The G20 meeting emerged as a parallel climate summit, producing high-level steps but few details.

President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping broadly agreed to have the nations resume talks on climate.

It also brought a multinational finance plan to help Indonesia move off coal.

The intrigue: The communique reiterates last year's COP26 push to phase down coal-fired power. But it doesn't endorse a wider move away from all fossil fuels, despite India's push at COP27.

It also nods toward reforming multilateral developing banks, which has wide support among leaders in Egypt. 

Reality check: While the 1.5°C target is a benchmark for limiting climate harms, the steep global emissions cuts needed to keep it from slipping away are nowhere in evidence.

G20 agreement clings to 1.5°C target

The summit's agreement is reverberating at the UN climate meeting in Egypt.

illustration of a greek statue rolling the earth up the hill

Major fault lines remain as negotiations at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, hit the middle of their second week.

State of play: This is the negotiating period before the all-night sessions begin, when draft texts are circulating in hallways and in the press, but ministers are waiting for the official proposal that may become the COP27 agreement.

COP27: Deep fault lines remain as talks enter crunch time

The big sticking point is climate damage funding.

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