Axios

If there's a Republican running for Congress that cuts against the party brand, it's Rhode Island's Allan Fung.

Why it matters: The son of Chinese immigrants and the former mayor of Cranston, Fung has shown he can win over moderate-minded voters in a solidly Democratic state.

A super PAC tied to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is pouring another $14 million into ad reservations in key House districts as the midterm campaign enters its final stage, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The Congressional Leadership Fund's spending offers a road map of which districts House Republicans view as their best pickup opportunities — as well as which incumbents they see as their most vulnerable.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken commemorated the fourth anniversary of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder on Sunday, saying it represented "an attack on freedom of expression everywhere."

Driving the news: U.S. intelligence concluded in 2021 that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was responsible for Khashoggi's murder — an allegation Saudi officials deny.

Democrats are facing fresh problems in two pivotal Senate battlegrounds in which their nominees are facing attacks for being too progressive.

What's happening: In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has pulled ahead of Democrat Mandela Barnes in the latest wave of public polls. In Pennsylvania, recent polling suggests Democrat John Fetterman's double-digit advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz has shrunk to a statistical tie. They are vying for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

At least 970,785 Americans remain without power following the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Fiona.

Driving the news: The death toll from Hurricane Ian rose to 51 on Sunday, as states sought to begin recovery efforts.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) on Sunday declined several times to condemn former President Trump's social media post suggesting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R.-Ky.) had a "death wish" and using a racist name to describe his former Cabinet Secretary Elaine Chao.

Driving the news: In a Truth Social post on Friday, the 45th president said the Senate GOP leader has a "death wish" because he supported "Democrat sponsored Bills."

House Republicans have introduced more than a dozen impeachment resolutions against President Biden and his officials, far outpacing Democrats' formal impeachment efforts at this point in former President Trump's term.

Why it matters: The failed impeachment efforts provide a roadmap for the investigations that Republicans — eager to make the rest of Biden's term a living nightmare — will likely pursue if they retake the majority after the midterms.

Roughly 54% of Latino voters would prefer to see Democrats keep control of Congress in the upcoming midterms, while 33% would like to see Republicans take control, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll released Sunday.

Why it matters: Although Democrats maintain a 21-point lead, this is narrower than in past elections. The same poll saw Democrats enjoying a 42-point lead in 2012, a 34-point lead in 2018, and a 26-point lead in 2020, per NBC News.

President Biden will visit Florida and Puerto Rico this week in the wake of the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Fiona.

Driving the news: The president and the first lady will visit Puerto Rico on Monday and Florida on Wednesday, the White House announced.

Good afternoon, and welcome to this Deep Dive on the Nov. 8 midterm elections, led by the Axios politics team.

The National Archives and Records Administration told the House Oversight Committee in a letter released Saturday that some Trump administration records have yet to be recovered.

Why it matters: The disclosure comes as Trump's legal team and the Justice Department wage a protracted legal battle over the ex-president's alleged possession of documents he was meant to turn over to the Archives upon leaving office.

Former President Trump could announce his 2024 presidential election plans by Thanksgiving, his former adviser Kellyanne Conway told CBS News Friday.

Why it matters: Conway's comments suggest Trump would wait until after the 2022 midterms, which have been seen as a potential referendum on Trump by top Republicans.

Former White House aide Alyssa Farah Griffin condemned former President Trump for a social media post attacking Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R.- Ky) and insulting his wife, Elaine Chao.

Why it matters: Trump's charged words against the Republican senator and his wife come weeks before the midterm elections in which several Trump-endorsed candidates are seeking wins in key states.

The November elections will give voters across the country opportunities to directly weigh in on issues from abortion to democracy to criminal justice reform.

Why it matters: When Congress is gridlocked, policy decisions shift to state legislatures — and increasingly to ballot measures.

Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: Watch these states in November for a preview of 2024 election litigation.

Why it matters: Election deniers who win statewide or federal office in presidential battleground states could pose the biggest danger to American democracy.

Americans' most common worry if Democrats keep control of Congress is the economy worsening, while concerns about a GOP takeover are more divided, according to an Axios-Ipsos poll.

Why it matters: If the economy and inflation are on voters' minds more than other issues come November, the burden will fall on President Biden and his party.

More than 200 election deniers — candidates promoting baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Trump — will appear on November general election ballots across the U.S.

Why it matters: Those who win will gain footing to affect future elections including the 2024 presidential race — through court challenges, administrative actions, executive orders, legislation, radical interpretation of law or the refusal to certify valid results, elections experts tell Axios.

The midterm elections will show whether former President Trump's endorsement power is still strong enough to reshape the Republican Party by sweeping his handpicked candidates into office.

Why it matters: If enough of Trump's candidates win in November, he'll show he still has the power to reshape the GOP. If they lose, he'll show his main superpower is to blow winnable races.

Fundamentals still matter in politics: The party out of power almost always gains congressional seats in a midterm. Presidents with underwater job approval ratings typically suffer sizable congressional losses.

Why it matters: Yes, Democrats' fortunes have improved, but the most likely outcome of the midterm elections is still a shift in power to the Republicans — and bigger headaches for President Biden over the next two years.

Here are five of the most hotly contested congressional races that political insiders are watching closely to determine whether Democrats will beat expectations on Nov. 8, or whether a red wave could reemerge just before Election Day.

Between the lines: If these seats stay or turn red, Republicans can pop the champagne corks early. But if Democrats hold their ground on friendly turf, it's a sign that any Republican wave has turned into a ripple.

The seditious conspiracy trial for the founder of the extremist group Oath Keepers begins next week, and his legal team is staking his freedom to an unusual defense, the Associated Press reports.

Driving the news: Lawyers for Stewart Rhodes are prepared to argue that their client was anticipating former President Trump would use powers under the Insurrection Act to form a militia, and that is why Rhodes and his group made preparations to storm the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) during a trip to Israel last month warned Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu that if he forms a government after the Nov. 1 elections that includes right-wing extremists, it could harm U.S.-Israel bilateral relations, according to two sources familiar with the meeting.

Why it matters: Netanyahu recently united several radical right-wing Jewish supremacist parties as part of his effort to consolidate his right-wing bloc and win the November election.

A judge on Friday ruled against Fair Fight Action, the voting rights group Stacey Abrams created, in a suit that challenged the state’s voting system.

The big picture: The suit was looking to change how Georgia administers elections even though the judge had already thrown out many of its original complaints, Axios' Emma Hurt reported.

A Jan. 6 rioter who filmed himself assaulting a police officer pleaded guilty Friday to a pair of felony charges, the Department of Justice said.

Driving the news: Ronald Sandlin, a 35-year-old from Tennessee, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding and assaulting, resisting or impeding officers, per the DOJ.

The federal government awarded more than $266 million in American Rescue Plan funding to grow the nation's community and public health workforce, the Department of Health and Human Services announced Friday.

Driving the news: The department is investing $225.5 million in community health workers and $40.7 million in public health scholarships.