1. The coming power shift

Illustration of a scale spilling the image in half.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Fundamentals still matter in politics: The party out of power almost always gains congressional seats in a midterm. Presidents with underwater job approval ratings typically suffer sizable congressional losses.

Why it matters: Yes, Democrats' fortunes have improved, but the most likely outcome of the midterm elections is still a shift in power to the Republicans — and bigger headaches for President Biden over the next two years.

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