1 big thing: Left loses momentum 

2. 🔮 The left's next tests

3. 📊 Data of the week: Alienated America

Illustration of the Great Seal of the US with the eagle holding arrows in both talons, instead of an olive branch.

4. 🗳️ Play of the week: Jan. 6 pitch

5. 📱Spot of the week: Iowa surprise

6. 👀 Races to watch

Illustration of an elephant and donkey wearing glasses.

Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, a weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics. 

Send me tips and rants: josh.kraushaar@axios.com.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,055 words ... 4 mins. Edited by Zachary Basu. 

📬 Thanks for reading. Please invite your friends to sign up here.

National

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

blue

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: GOP's New Mexico bet

Illustration of an elephant at the top of the New Mexico flag.

2. 👀 Manchin, Sinema jeopardize 2024 bids

3. 📺 Spot of the week: Dem distancing from Biden

Golden: The House Democrat Who Bucked Biden

4. 📊 Poll of the week: Independents rising

Illustration of a hand wiping away a wall of red and blue.

5. 🗣️ Quote of the week

 Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, a weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics. 

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,030 words ... 4 minutes.

 📬 Thanks for reading. Please invite your friends to sign up here. 

1 big thing: Trump gives House a break

Photo illustration of a collage of Donald Trump, Kevin McCarthy and the US Capitol.

2. Play of the week: "Demonic" ad

3. 🍨 Scoop: Mooney targets Manchin

4. 📊 Poll of the week: Dems gain ground

5. 📺 Spot of the week: DeSantis' 2024 playbook

⚡ Situational awareness: Senate Democrats today passed their sweeping, $740 billion tax, climate and health care reconciliation package after an all-night session, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. 

The House returns on Friday to take it up.

Smart Brevity™ count: 980 words ... 3.5 minutes. Edited by Margaret Talev.

1 big thing: Trump's summer slump

Illustration of a red Maga-like baseball cap that reads "nope"

2. 🗳️ Play of the week: GOP's new Hispanic angle

Illustration of the Republican elephant logo made out of football play diagram elements.

3. 📊 Data of the week: Dem bump

Illustration of a blue donkey holding an arrow in its mouth

4. 🎯 Target of the week: Colorado Senate 

Illustration of a close up of the state of Colorado, with the state outline as a checked "box". 

5. 📱 Spot of the week: MAGA vs. Betsy DeVos

Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining my debut as the new author of Sunday Sneak Peek, with a weekly look-ahead at forces shaping American politics. (Don't worry, the full Sneak cast will be back on weekdays.) 

Smart Brevity™ count: 996 words ... 4 minutes.

Former President Trump has been paying a lot less attention to House races than he has to statewide races — and lots of Republicans don't mind a bit. 

Why it matters: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and his allies are boosting the fortunes of more-mainstream-than-MAGA Republicans in pivotal primaries, often working under the radar.

What's happening: The McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC has quietly spent about $7 million in Republican primaries, boosting more electable candidates.

In California, CLF helped salvage Rep. Young Kim’s campaign from a right-wing challenger and bailed out anti-Trump GOP Rep. David Valadao from a MAGA opponent as well. 

The group spent $1 million to boost Juan Ciscomani, a celebrated Hispanic recruit in an Arizona swing district, and nearly $600,000 to help Navy veteran Jen Kiggans prevail against a right-wing opponent in a battleground Virginia district.

House Republicans credit McCarthy's mostly constructive relationship with Trump for helping keep the former president from causing havoc in key races. McCarthy helped convince Trump not to endorse a challenger against Valadao. If Valadao had lost the primary, Democrats would have been the odds-on favorite to win his seat.

Zoom in: While Trump has held rallies for favored Senate and governor's candidates, his House focus has been limited mainly to exacting vengeance on Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

Trump's House endorsements focus on going after Republicans who backed his impeachment, and a few others he views as disloyal. 

McCarthy had a mixed record defending three Republican lawmakers from Trump-endorsed challenges on Tuesday. Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse defeated a MAGA challenger, but Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer narrowly lost to Trump-backed  John Gibbs. 

Washington Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler’s race against Trump-endorsed Joe Kent is too close to call. Super PACs aligned with the GOP establishment spent about $3 million boosting Herrera Beutler in the primary.

What's next: After November, McCarthy’s caucus is still likely to become more Trump-friendly.

House Republicans have nominated MAGA-oriented candidates in many safe seats, and most of the 10 Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment either retired or lost. 

Pragmatic members like Reps. David McKinley of West Virginia and Rodney Davis of Illinois, who both backed Biden’s infrastructure deal, also were defeated by Trump-endorsed Republican colleagues.

Trump gives House a break

Trump has been paying a lot less attention to House races than he has to statewide races.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Al Drago/Bloomberg, Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Midterm elections 2022

Politics & Policy

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' campaign stop in New Mexico on Sunday is worth watching for two reasons: The state is one of the GOP's best opportunities to flip a Democratic governorship. And the Republican nominee has gotten this far without help from Donald Trump.

Why it matters: New Mexico has the largest share of Hispanic voters of any state in the country. Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is currently the nation's only Latina governor. But she's unpopular — and with Hispanic voters poised to continue their rightward shift, Republican Mark Ronchetti, a former TV meteorologist, is suddenly in play.

He's well positioned after soundly defeating several MAGA allies in the GOP primary. Real Clear Politics shows Lujan Grisham's polling lead is within the margin of error.

New Mexico has surpassed more traditional battlegrounds like Michigan and Pennsylvania on the GOP's radar due to the nomination of weak Republican candidates in those states. 

The intrigue: Ronchetti has kept his distance from Trump, who is deeply unpopular in New Mexico, but is betting DeSantis will be a more popular surrogate. 

That's a risky bet: Ronchetti is a well-liked meteorologist and self-branded family man. DeSantis' harder-edged rhetoric may turn off some swing voters. Ronchetti will need to win over independents and even some moderate Democrats to prevail.

What they're saying: Ronchetti told Axios that Republicans can't win in New Mexico with harsh rhetoric about Hispanics and must focus on issues like crime and the economy to win over the state's swing Latino voters. 

"We have a lot of conservatives in this state, who are wondering, 'Can we build a movement to do this?' We can. But don't go out and start thinking that you can exclude people in your party," Ronchetti said.

The big picture: Crime and public safety have emerged as the top issues in the campaign, according to strategists involved in the New Mexico race.

This month, Lujan Grisham released an out-of-context campaign ad accusing Ronchetti of wanting to "defund the police" based on debate comments criticizing Lujan Grisham's insufficient support for law enforcement. Ronchetti and the Republican Governors' Association hit back by calling her attack an outright lie.

The state's Fraternal Order of Police, which hasn't endorsed anyone in the race, criticized the Democrat for misrepresenting Ronchetti's position.

Between the lines: Lujan Grisham has been beset with low approval ratings, staff upheaval and charges of hypocrisy.

She initially drew praise for her handling of the pandemic but sparked outrage when she wagged her finger at a press conference at residents who weren't wearing masks. 

She was then slammed for buying jewelry after she ordered the closure of all nonessential businesses.

Lujan Grisham once told a Democratic candidate to leave a lieutenant governor's race over allegations of workplace harassment, only to later pay out thousands of dollars to a former campaign staffer accusing her of sexual misconduct.

Multiple cabinet secretaries in the state's education, health and youth services departments have resigned or been fired in her four years in office as staff complained about the toxic environment of her administration. 

The other side: David Turner, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association, said Republicans' claim they could flip New Mexico is "more bluster than substance."

He said the DGA committed $2.5 million to help Lujan Grisham in May, and they expect her to win re-election.

“Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has never been in a stronger position for re-election — her campaign has already raised a monumental $7.8 million to date," Dominic Gabello, senior campaign adviser to the governor's re-election campaign, told Axios.

Don't forget: Ronchetti won a contested GOP primary without any support from Trump. 

Before he ran for Senate in 2019, he said: "I'm a Christian conservative who used to be a Republican until the Orange One. I'm afraid that has taken a part of my soul, and that's not coming back." As a candidate, his campaign later said he was joking.

In 2020, Ronchetti came within six points of defeating Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) even as President Biden carried New Mexico by 11 points. As a familiar face on New Mexico TV, he won over independent voters with a pragmatic campaign message.

GOP's New Mexico bet

The state is one of the GOP's best opportunities to flip a Democratic governorship.

New Mexico

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis&#x27; campaign stop in New Mexico on Sunday is worth watching for two reasons: The state is one of the GOP&#x27;s best opportunities to flip a Democratic governorship. And the Republican nominee has gotten this far without help from Donald Trump.Why it matters: New Mexico has the largest share of Hispanic voters of any state in the country. Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is currently the nation&#x27;s only Latina governor. But she&#x27;s unpopular — and with Hispanic voters <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="poised to continue their rightward shift" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/06/latino-vote-hispanic-democrats-republicans" data-vars-content-id="3f44cf51-03dd-4d24-b383-b5c406c81919" data-vars-headline="GOP&#x27;s New Mexico bet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/06/latino-vote-hispanic-democrats-republicans" target="_self">poised to continue their rightward shift</a>, Republican Mark Ronchetti, a former TV meteorologist, is suddenly in play.

Three August elections that pitted Republicans against Democrats on the same ballot on Tuesday are providing fresh indications that Democrats have gained political momentum over the summer.

What's happening: In the Minnesota 1st District special election on Tuesday, Republican Brad Finstad only defeated Democrat Jeff Ettinger by four points in a district that former President Trump carried by 10 points in 2020. 

Finstad's winning margin was only slightly wider than the late GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn's three-point victory in 2020.

In Washington's 8th District — a suburban Seattle swing seat in which candidates from all parties were on the same primary ballot — Democrats won 49.6% of the vote (led by Washington Rep. Kim Schrier), while Republicans tallied 49.2% of the vote.

Schrier won the seat by four points in 2020. This is a bellwether contest that Republicans should be winning decisively in a strong midterm cycle.

In Washington's Senate race, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray — who has become a Republican target — won 52.5% of the vote, while Republicans (led by top recruit Tiffany Smiley) tallied 41.2%.

The results show Republicans are making inroads but not nearly enough to unseat the veteran senator in a solid blue state.

Why it matters: The results suggest Republicans are still well on track to win the House majority in 2022, but not by the historic margins that once looked possible. They also indicate that Republicans can't rely on a big red wave to sweep in their flawed Senate nominees in battleground states.

What's next: Keep a close eye on the Aug. 23 special election in New York's 19th District.

Both parties are spending aggressively for a narrative-shaping win, in a district Biden carried by two points.

It's shaping up to be a true test of both parties' dominant midterm messages: Democrats are running ads on abortion, while Republicans are focused on inflation and crime.

August election results suggest GOP's "red wave" may be subsiding

Democrats have gained political momentum over the summer.

Illustration of a zoomed-in elephant walking on the beach. 

Three August elections that pitted Republicans against Democrats on the same ballot on Tuesday are providing fresh indications that Democrats have gained political momentum over the summer.What&#x27;s happening: In the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Minnesota 1st District special election" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/10/minnesota-primaries-results-election-brad-finstad" data-vars-content-id="4f73b364-af05-48d1-b07d-75212fd4185d" data-vars-headline="August election results suggest GOP&#x27;s &quot;red wave&quot; may be subsiding" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/10/minnesota-primaries-results-election-brad-finstad" target="_self">Minnesota 1st District special election</a> on Tuesday, Republican Brad Finstad only defeated Democrat Jeff Ettinger by four points in a district that former President Trump carried by 10 points in 2020.

House Democrats' campaign arm is going on the air with a six-figure, abortion-focused ad buy in the special election in New York's 19th District, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The Aug. 23 race is an early test of whether Democrats' focus on abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will be enough to counter Republicans' attacks on inflation.

Democratic candidate Pat Ryan and Republican candidate Marc Molinaro, both popular county executives, have been road-testing their parties' respective messaging strategies, Axios previously reported.

Driving the news: The ad from Ryan's campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, titled "Sad Truth," says: "The sad truth? Marc Molinaro and the Republicans oppose a woman’s right to choose." 

"In Congress, they will vote for a nationwide abortion ban. Republicans will allow women and their doctors to be prosecuted for getting abortions," it continues.

The spot intersperses footage of Molinaro with videos of national Republican figures, including former President Trump, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

The other side: Molinaro campaign manager Will Dawson told Axios in a statement, "Pat Ryan is lying and he knows it. Marc has stated he would not support a federal ban because the Supreme Court has returned this matter to the states."

Molinaro, who is pro-life, previously told Axios in an interview that he supports some state restrictions but views Congress' role as "very, very limited."

His campaign has been laser-focused on rising costs and crime. "This is another desperate attempt to distract voters from Joe Biden’s policies that have created an inflation crisis, record high gas prices, and rising crime," Dawson said.

State of play: The ad comes as Molinaro and the National Republican Congressional Committee have heavily outspent Democrats in the district, $1.3 million to $500,000, according to a House Republican operative tracking spending.

Scoop: National Democrats jump into N.Y. special election

The Aug. 23 race is an early test of Democrats' abortion messaging.

2022 elections

House Democrats&#x27; campaign arm is going on the air with a six-figure, abortion-focused ad buy in the special election in New York&#x27;s 19th District, Axios has learned.Why it matters: The Aug. 23 race is an early test of whether Democrats&#x27; focus on abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court&#x27;s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will be enough to counter Republicans&#x27; attacks on inflation.

By helping Democrats pass a landmark $750 billion climate, tax and health care bill, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have complicated their own re-election fortunes for 2024.

Why it matters: While Democrats have a credible chance to hold onto a narrow Senate majority this year, they're staring at a rough political map in two years, when both of those seats are up — and when the party will also be forced to defend seats in red states like Montana and Ohio. 

The fortunes of battle-tested Democrats like Sinema and Manchin will determine the party's ability to hold a long-term Senate majority.

What we're watching: Manchin, who enjoyed bipartisan approval as a check against the Biden White House, is now being tagged by Republicans as a supporter of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer's liberal agenda.

He's already getting attacked on television by a potential GOP challenger, Rep. Alex Mooney, for "destroying" West Virginia's coal industry. 

Sinema, who already faced distrust from progressives, ultimately ensured the bill's passage.

But she held out her support in order to protect a tax break for private equity executives and hedge fund managers, aggravating both progressive activists and even moderate former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Zoom in: Supporting any legislation boosting clean energy won't be an easy sell in coal-producing West Virginia. And Sinema's vote, in tandem with her private equity push, opens up new lines of attack from her political rivals on both the left and right.

Manchin secured a key concession easing permitting for fossil fuel projects, but it's unlikely to be enough to persuade Trump-loving voters that the bill favors their interests. "He's up against the entire Democratic machine and Republican machine, who are both calling it a climate bill. That's not helpful," said one source familiar with Manchin's thinking.

His approval rating soared after he scuttled Biden's original multitrillion-dollar social spending bill, jumping 17 points — from 40% to 57% — in the first quarter of this year. He's now expected to lose some of that bipartisan support after negotiating the spending deal.

Be smart: Sinema's vulnerabilities are more complex.

At a time when she's winning over Republicans and independents back home, her support for the partisan legislation handed a future GOP challenger a ready-made attack line: She's more interested in protecting Wall Street than Main Street. 

At the same time, unlike Manchin, Sinema also has to worry about the possibility of a primary challenge from her left. Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego is already teasing a possible primary challenge against the maverick Democrat in 2024.

Between the lines: Sinema was concerned that penalizing private equity firms would adversely affect the small businesses they support — an issue that every other Senate Democrat facing a tough race in 2022 also agreed with. And she also used her leverage to guarantee additional funding for drought resilience, which is a major issue in arid Arizona.

"At a time of record inflation, rising interest rates and slowing economic growth, disincentivizing investments in Arizona businesses would hurt Arizona's economy and ability to create jobs," Sinema spokesman Hannah Hurley told Axios.

The bottom line: With inflation dominating voter concerns for the midterms, it's unlikely the climate, tax and health care bill will have a significant political impact in 2022.

But if Manchin's and Sinema's roles in this party-line bill were to weaken two of the upper chamber's most independent members, it could have major ramifications for the Democratic Party in 2024.

Manchin, Sinema and 2024

Democrats are staring at a rough political map in two years.

Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Joe Manchin

By helping Democrats pass a landmark <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="$750 billion climate, tax and health care bill" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/08/inflation-reduction-act-biden" data-vars-content-id="ef1abb5c-f5c3-47ff-95db-2a05db171f85" data-vars-headline="Manchin, Sinema and 2024" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/08/inflation-reduction-act-biden" target="_self">$750 billion climate, tax and health care bill</a>, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have complicated their own re-election fortunes for 2024.Why it matters: While Democrats have a credible chance to hold onto a narrow Senate majority this year, they&#x27;re staring at a rough political map in two years, when both of those seats are up — and when the party will also be forced to defend seats in red states like Montana and Ohio.

Sections

Axios Local

Axios gets you smarter, faster with news & information that matters.

About

Subscribe

Josh Kraushaar

Stories

GOP's New Mexico bet

Manchin, Sinema and 2024

August election results suggest GOP's "red wave" may be subsiding

Scoop: National Democrats jump into N.Y. special election

Trump gives House a break

Newsletter editions

🐘 GOP's hot hunch

🤫 Trump's House break

🤫 Left loses momentum

🤫 Trump's summer slump