1 big thing: Black lawmakers' growing influence

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2. Manchin feeling the heat

3. Poll of the week: Santos in free fall

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4. Reads of the week: Bipartisan boomlet

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Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, our weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,365 words ... 5 minutes. 

 📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Brad Bonhall.  

Sneak Peek

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Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

1 big thing: Biden's centrist pivot

2. 🧠 How Kentucky gov. plans to win

3. 📺 Spot of the week: Rick Scott's '24 play

4. 🌵 Overlooked: Arizona's historic Dem trifecta

5. 📖 Reads of the week: All eyes on Slotkin

Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, our weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics. 

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,389 words ... 5 minutes. 

Edited by Zachary Basu. Thanks to Kathie Bozanich for the copy edit. 

1 big thing: GOP's '24 freeze

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2. 🗳️ Outside Porter's comfort zone 

3. 📊 Poll of the week: Moderates' alarm

4. ✍️ Campaign committees staff up

5. 📖 Reads of the week: Anti-Mitch pitch

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,427 words ... 5½ minutes.

📅 Sneak will be off tomorrow for Martin Luther King Jr. Day but back in your inbox on Tuesday. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Trump's sleepy start to 2024

2. 🔥 California's battle lines

3. 📉 Poll of the week: Cracks in the Granite (state)

4. 📖 Reads of the week: Retirement watch

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,318 words ... 5 minutes.

📬 Thanks for starting your week with us. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Conservative heavyweights plot new path

Candidates championed by the Club for Growth

2. 📺 Play of the week: North Carolina race heats up

3. 📉 Poll of the week: Biden's political slide

4. 📖 Reads of the week: Arizona's coming clash 

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,196 words ... 4.5 minutes.

National

SALEM, New Hampshire — Former President Trump's first campaign swing of the 2024 campaign generated little of the excitement that has long defined his glitzy political rallies.

Why it matters: From party officials to state legislators, there wasn't a visible show of support for Trump's 2024 bid among rank-and-file New Hampshire Republicans in attendance.

In contrast to the large rallies that propelled him in 2016 and 2020, the New Hampshire event — timed to the state party annual meeting — was held in a compact high school auditorium, with about 400 people in attendance.

The most organized show of Trump support was about a dozen fans standing outside the parking lot, who weren't credentialed for the event. 

Driving the news: In a long-winded, hourlong address, Trump recalled what he says are his greatest successes as president — from cracking down on illegal immigration to stunting the spread of ISIS and launching the Space Force. 

About one-third of the crowd loudly applauded as outgoing state party chairman Stephen Stepanek introduced Trump by endorsing his campaign. (He will be serving as Trump's top New Hampshire adviser.) But the speech overall drew a lukewarm reaction from the attendees. 

Trump's biggest applause came 45 minutes into his speech, when he introduced a new proposal to crack down on critical race theory in public school classrooms. He also drew an enthusiastic response when he proposed a constitutional amendment for congressional term limits. 

Noting that pundits have panned the former president's low-key schedule since announcing his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump responded: "I have two years. I’m more angry now and I’m more committed than ever.”

What they're saying: "Trump has not been mortally wounded but was damaged by the results in the midterm election," said former Republican state party chairman Wayne MacDonald, a state lawmaker. "Trump lost the 2020 election, and the number of people who still hold onto the belief that he didn't are a dwindling minority."

Between the lines: Signs of enthusiasm for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis were notable throughout the event. The pro-DeSantis efforts were led by the super PAC Ron To the Rescue, which set up shop inside the GOP meeting. A second DeSantis supporter was selling T-shirts at a stand.

A life-sized cutout of DeSantis stood just outside the auditorium. Only a smattering of visible signs of Trump enthusiasm — red MAGA hats from his most devoted supporters — were present in the high school's hallways.

One Republican in attendance estimated to Axios that about half of the party rank-and-file in the room were Trump supporters in general, while another half wanted the party to move on. Another said there were "pockets" of Trump support within party leadership, but it was not widespread.

Reality check: Trump's base of support has always been with ordinary Republican voters who don't participate in grassroots political events. Last year, Republican primary voters rejected candidates backed by popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu in favor of MAGA-oriented candidates. 

By the numbers: Two new polls of New Hampshire Republicans paint a mixed picture of the state's GOP electorate. The University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll showed DeSantis leading Trump, 42%-30%, in a multi-candidate ballot test. 

But a Coefficient survey conducted for the New Hampshire Journal found Trump up 11 points over DeSantis (37%-26%), with Sununu tallying 13%. 43% of GOP respondents said they'd prefer Trump to an alternative, while 42% would prefer someone else.

An informal Reuters survey of 10 onetime strong Trump supporters in the state found only three of them backing him again in 2024.

Sununu said on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday that DeSantis would win the New Hampshire primary today "without a doubt."

The bottom line: Trump's support is soft in New Hampshire. The widespread sentiment among Republicans there is that Trump served the country well, but he's unelectable in 2024.

Trump's sleepy start to 2024

Trump's support is soft in New Hampshire.

Donald Trump

Politics & Policy

Get ready for one of the messiest statewide campaigns in recent West Virginia history — whether or not Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) runs for re-election.

Why it matters: West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) would pose the biggest Republican threat Manchin has faced in his 12-year Senate career. 

Justice, a former Democrat, is inching closer to a Senate campaign against Manchin, according to Republicans familiar with his thinking. The move would give Republicans a strong opportunity to win the red-state seat.

Justice has a 64% approval rating in the state, 24 percentage points higher than Manchin's, and told CBS News he'll decide this month whether he's running.

If Justice gets in, he faces a primary against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.V.), a Freedom Caucus member who plans on going after the governor for supporting wasteful spending. 

Mooney defeated former GOP Rep. David McKinley last year in a race that hinged on whether West Virginia Republicans favored a lawmaker who could bring federal money back home or one who pledged to hold a fiscally conservative line. They chose the latter.

What they're saying: "I’ve given a lot of thought and I’m still very, very, very seriously considering it," Justice told Wheeling-area television station WTRF. "In fact, I’m probably leaning that way.”

Between the lines: If he runs, Justice will face questions about his personal finances. A 2019 Fortune magazine profile describes the governor as "a man who has a hard time paying the bills":

Since 2016 courts have ordered Justice and his companies to pay more than $10 million to more than a dozen suppliers, workers and government entities. Over the same time, his companies also piled up $13 million-plus in tax liens. He claims to have paid off many of these.

By the numbers: Manchin, who has not decided whether he'll run for re-election, raised only $175,000 in the final three months of 2022 but still ended the year with a hefty $9.53 million in his campaign coffers.

Joe Manchin feels the heat in West Virginia

The move would give Republicans a strong opportunity to win the red-state seat.

Photo: William B. Plowman/NBC via Getty Images

Congress

Get ready for one of the messiest statewide campaigns in recent West Virginia history — whether or not Sen. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Joe Manchin" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/18/manchin-democratic-party-sinema" data-vars-content-id="7b8af045-6160-48d8-94fe-e594eb2f57a3" data-vars-headline="Joe Manchin feels the heat in West Virginia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/18/manchin-democratic-party-sinema" target="_self">Joe Manchin</a> (D-W.Va.) runs for re-election.Why it matters: West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) would pose the biggest Republican threat Manchin has faced in his 12-year Senate career.

Of the 60 Black lawmakers elected to Congress this year, 30 now represent states or districts with a plurality of white voters, according to an Axios analysis.

Why it matters: It marks a dramatic shift from the recent past, when most Black lawmakers hailed from majority-minority districts specifically drawn to elect them.  In 2014, only eight (of 43) elected Black lawmakers were from plurality-white states or districts.

The November election results showed that a historic barrier to Black representation in Congress — namely white voters refusing to support African-American candidates — is rapidly declining.

Most of the 30 Black lawmakers representing majority or plurality-white districts are Democrats (25). But Republicans elected five Black members of Congress, all from states and districts with majority-white constituencies. Their recruiting class in 2022 marked the largest number of African American candidates in history. 

The 118th Congress also features the largest number of Black lawmakers in history. But their growing ideological diversity is creating some new internal tensions.

Republican lawmakers championed the fact that Black lawmakers from each party — Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) — were being considered for House speaker.  (Donalds offered his name as Republicans struggled to secure the votes to elect Speaker Kevin McCarthy.)

But that historic moment irritated progressive Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), who called the conservative Republican lawmaker "a prop" in a tweet. "Despite being Black, he supports a policy agenda intent on upholding and perpetuating white supremacy," she wrote.

Between the lines: The Congressional Black Caucus, whose membership is exclusively Democrats, also has faced divisions between its older members, who mostly hail from safe districts, and a newer cadre of lawmakers who represent swing seats in diverse districts and have a broader outlook.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), the first Black senator to represent Georgia, focused on his bipartisan outreach during his heated re-election campaign against Republican Herschel Walker in November.

Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio), a 37-year-old freshman who was the Democrats' leader in the Ohio House, represents one of the biggest battleground districts in the country. The district's home base of Summit County — including Akron and its suburbs — is mostly white.

The CBC also is divided between outspoken progressives such as Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), who often challenge party leadership, and pragmatists in leadership, led by Jeffries and former House Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.).

Zoom in: The Supreme Court will decide this spring whether to maintain protections against racial discrimination in drawing congressional districts' boundaries.

A lower court found that Alabama's maps violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965 because only one of the state's seven districts is majority Black — not representative of the state's African American population, which is 27% of Alabama's residents.

Conservatives have questioned whether those protections need to remain in place, given the increasing willingness of white voters to support Black candidates.

The bottom line: Partisanship is a powerful driving factor in politics today, sometimes more than race. 

Voters are less polarized by racial identity than they were in 2012, enabling Republicans to make small inroads with Hispanic, Black and Asian American voters in recent elections.

But as the Washington Post's Perry Bacon Jr. noted in a 2021 FiveThirtyEight piece, voters are still "very polarized by attitudes about racial and cultural issues." 

Big barrier to Black representation in Congress rapidly declines

The change is a shift from the recent past.

Of the<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" 60 Black lawmakers" data-vars-click-url="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/09/u-s-congress-continues-to-grow-in-racial-ethnic-diversity/" data-vars-content-id="bbf1f477-56d8-4b20-8f57-3ba65fbe706e" data-vars-headline="Big barrier to Black representation in Congress rapidly declines" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/09/u-s-congress-continues-to-grow-in-racial-ethnic-diversity/" target="_blank"> 60 Black lawmakers</a> elected to Congress this year, 30 now represent states or districts with a plurality of white voters, according to an Axios analysis.Why it matters: It marks a dramatic shift from the recent past, when most Black lawmakers hailed from majority-minority districts specifically drawn to elect them. In 2014,<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" only eight (of 43)" data-vars-click-url="https://history.house.gov/baic/" data-vars-content-id="bbf1f477-56d8-4b20-8f57-3ba65fbe706e" data-vars-headline="Big barrier to Black representation in Congress rapidly declines" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://history.house.gov/baic/" target="_blank"> only eight (of 43)</a> elected Black lawmakers were from plurality-white states or districts.

Axios AM

Nikki Haley is expected to announce her 2024 presidential campaign on Feb. 15 in Charleston, South Carolina, according to a person familiar with her plans.

Why it matters: Haley, 51, had said she wouldn't run against former President Trump. Now she is.

Haley, the daughter of immigrants from India, recently tweeted: "It's time for a new generation. It's time for new leadership."

She'll be the second major candidate to enter the Republican primary after Trump. The news was first reported by the Post and Courier of Charleston. 

The big picture: A competition between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the MAGA vote could leave room for a more pragmatic candidate who would have a foot in both the Trump and establishment worlds.

Haley is seeking to fill that role. She was a popular conservative governor of South Carolina who clashed with her party's establishment — and later became Trump's UN Ambassador.

By the numbers: A new poll of Republican voters conducted by Whit Ayres for the Bulwark found that Haley was viewed equally favorably by the Trump-first and traditional wings of the party.

That puts her in stronger shape than other Republican figures that were viewed critically by the Trump wing — including former Vice President Mike Pence.

Between the lines: Trump told reporters on his plane Saturday that Haley had called to tell him that she was planning to run.

"She called me and said she'd like to consider it, and I said, 'You should do it,'" Trump said, according to CNN.

Trump's more relaxed stance toward Haley suggests he could be saving his firepower for DeSantis.

What to watch: Fundraising will be an early test for Haley. Republican strategists believe there's room for one pragmatic candidate to consolidate support from party-first Republicans.

Haley could face competition for the role from rivals like Pence, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Nikki Haley set to announce 2024 presidential bid

She recently tweeted: "It's time for a new generation. It's time for new leadership."

Nikki Haley speaks during the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas last year.

Nikki Haley speaks during the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas last year. Photo: David Becker for the Washington Post via Getty Images

2024 presidential election

Nikki Haley is expected to announce <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="her 2024 presidential campaign" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/01/nikki-haley-midterms-campaign-republicans" data-vars-content-id="c7535dbb-f3ee-4a47-a0f0-5b3979f79e0a" data-vars-headline="Nikki Haley set to announce 2024 presidential bid" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/01/nikki-haley-midterms-campaign-republicans" target="_self">her 2024 presidential campaign</a> on Feb. 15 in Charleston, South Carolina, according to a person familiar with her plans.Why it matters: Haley, 51, had <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="said she wouldn&#x27;t run" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/04/12/nikki-haley-trump-2024-bid" data-vars-content-id="c7535dbb-f3ee-4a47-a0f0-5b3979f79e0a" data-vars-headline="Nikki Haley set to announce 2024 presidential bid" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/04/12/nikki-haley-trump-2024-bid" target="_self">said she wouldn&#x27;t run</a> against former President Trump. Now she is.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, left, former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Photos: Alex Wong; Scott Eisen; Octavio Jones via Getty Images

The fractious Republican Party is consolidating around a "Protect the children" platform for 2024 that aggressively targets school policies on gender identity and how racial issues are taught.

Why it matters: A year before presidential primaries begin, Republicans see this as a winning formula that can fire up their base and attract some independents, pointing to the recent electoral success of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Much of the battle is being fought at the state and local levels, giving an edge to GOP officials such as DeSantis and Youngkin — both potential presidential candidates who recognized the potency of educational issues early on.

Driving the news: Former President Trump is now leaning hard into this strategy, unveiling sweeping proposals in the past week to ban gender-affirming care for minors nationwide and cut off federal funding for schools that teach "critical race theory" and "gender ideology" — without defining what exactly those terms mean.

Trump's proposals targeting trans rights would be more restrictive than any being pursued by Republican-led state governments, in what could be seen as an attempt to outflank DeSantis on the issue.

DeSantis notched a major victory today when the College Board announced it would revise its curriculum for AP African American Studies after heavy criticism from the Florida governor.

The big picture: These debates often are tagged as part of the "culture wars," but many parents see them as fights over the quality of their kids' educations. Under the banner of parental rights, Republicans are seeking to build a broad coalition centered on frustrations that schools are acting against their kids' best interests.

The other side: Polls show most Americans favor discrimination protections for trans people but are divided on teaching about gender identity in schools. 

Critics of Republicans' push to restrict teaching of racial issues view the GOP's efforts as attempts to bury America's history of racism and its impacts today.

How we got here: The GOP began to gain momentum on educational issues after lengthy school closures during the pandemic fueled opposition from frustrated parents.

Youngkin emphasized "parents' rights" in an upset victory in blue-leaning Virginia in 2021 — an outcome that put education on the national map for Republicans.

After a successful bipartisan vote to overturn the mask mandate for some public school students, Youngkin also unveiled policy changes requiring schools to inform a student's parents if the student wants to change their name or pronouns on their official records.

DeSantis took heat for championing legislation that would limit discussions about sexual orientation or gender identity for Florida students in third grade or below. But polls showed the legislation was broadly popular in Florida, and in November he was re-elected governor by 19 points.

By the numbers: An October 2022 Pew Research Center poll found Democrats' edge over Republicans on education was just five points. Education ranked the third most important of 12 issues tested, below the economy and the future of democracy. 

A summer 2022 poll conducted in battleground states for the American Federation for Teachers union found that 39% of voters trusted Republicans more on education, while 38% favored Democrats.

Polls also show widespread opposition to age-inappropriate curriculum in K-12 education, though the details of what's appropriate for kids have been the subject of heated local fights. 

What to watch: Much of DeSantis' energy, as he mulls a presidential campaign, is focused on educational changes. He's working to transform a progressive public honors university — the New College of Florida — to be more conservative-friendly. 

He appointed six ideologically aligned trustees (including educational activist Chris Rufo) to the board. Already the new board has ousted the school's president and taken steps to eliminate its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) staff.

After DeSantis banned the new AP African-American history course in Florida, the College Board stripped topics from the curriculum that had drawn scrutiny, including "Intersectionality and Activism,” “Black Queer Studies” and “Incarceration and Abolition." 

The College Board also added "black conservatism" as a research topic, though its president denies that the organization succumbed to political pressure.

The bottom line: Republicans are tapping into broad parental discontent over educational issues and have achieved victories by rallying conservatives while engaging suburban independents. 

The risk for the party, however, is that the often-harsh rhetoric that draws in the base is alienating to many swing-voting suburbanites who determine elections. 

Youngkin has been more effective at messaging his educational reforms to win over moderate suburbanites, while DeSantis' rhetoric has been tailored to the conservative base. 

Inside the GOP's "Save the kids" strategy

A year before presidential primaries begin, Republicans see this as a winning formula.

Republicans

<figure><img alt="Youngkin, Trump and DeSantis" height="721" id="88f8b985-e499-4643-bd57-9765c2267b6c" src="https://images.axios.com/7HztbRx2zjmTE-aQYbCWE7ZTDiw=/2023/02/01/1675287156634.jpg" width="1280"/><figcaption>Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, left, former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Photos: Alex Wong; Scott Eisen; Octavio Jones via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The fractious Republican Party is consolidating around a &quot;Protect the children&quot; platform for 2024 that aggressively targets school policies on gender identity and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="how racial issues are taught" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/12/critical-race-theory-fights-crt-education" data-vars-content-id="d9ca7bae-6c91-4e7c-bc03-d9180ab47368" data-vars-headline="Inside the GOP&#x27;s &quot;Save the kids&quot; strategy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/12/critical-race-theory-fights-crt-education" target="_self">how racial issues are taught</a>.Why it matters: A year before presidential primaries begin, Republicans see this as a winning formula that can fire up their base and attract some independents, pointing to the recent electoral success of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Josh Kraushaar

Stories

Big barrier to Black representation in Congress rapidly declines

Joe Manchin feels the heat in West Virginia

Inside the GOP's "Save the kids" strategy

Nikki Haley set to announce 2024 presidential bid

Trump's sleepy start to 2024

Newsletter editions

Black lawmakers' growing influence

😴 Trump's sleepy start

👀 Coming conservative war

🧊 GOP’s '24 freeze

🤫 Biden's '24 pivot