1 big thing: Biden's surprising soft spot for '24

2. 📺 Scoop: MAGA Inc. hits Hunter

A screenshot of a MAGA Inc. ad featuring President Biden and son Hunter.

3. 🌵 Poll of the week: Sinema's path to victory

Illustration of polling, voting, and chart symbols on a grid

4. 📖 Reads of the week: No ordinary Joe 

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Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, our weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,446 words ... 5½ minutes.

📬 Thanks for starting your week with us. This newsletter was copy edited by Brad Bonhall.

Sneak Peek

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Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

Axios Sneak Peek

Standard

1 big thing: GOP's Ukraine evolution

Illustration of an elephant trunk holding a roll of money in front on a Ukrainian flag 

2. 🐊 Poll of the week: DeSantis arguments fall flat

3. 🗣️ Quote of the week: Fetterman's candor 

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4. 📖 Reads of the week: Toss-up territory

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,276 words ... 5 minutes.

📬 Thanks for starting your week with us. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

1 big thing: Nikki Haley bides her time

2. 📈 Poll of the week: GOP vulnerability on abortion

3. 📺 Ad of the week: Scott's border security push

4. 📖 Reads of the week: Squad alert

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,220 words ... 4.5 minutes.

1 big thing: Senate tilting red, House blue for '24

Illustration of the U.S. Capitol over a divided blue and red background with elements of ballots.

2. ⚡ Trump slams GOP's abortion messaging

3. 📺 Plays of the week: All eyes on Montana

4. 📖 Reads of the week: Biden's strike squeeze

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,324 words ... 5 minutes.

1 big thing: Biden's broken bully pulpit

2. 🚨 Poll of the week: Warnings for Biden re-elect

3. 📺 Spot of the week: Haley's electability pitch

4. 📖 Reads of the week: Scaling the blue wall 

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,425 words ... 5.5 minutes.

National

President Biden has been unable to capitalize on a flurry of positive news — from an improving economy to encouraging developments in Ukraine to his top political rival's legal troubles.

Why it matters: Biden's inability to use the presidential bully pulpit effectively — a byproduct of his advanced age — has become a serious handicap as he seeks a second term.

It's not the message, but the messenger. Biden, who was never a charismatic speaker in his political prime, is badly struggling to persuade the public of anything at age 80.

FDR had his fireside chats. Ronald Reagan was the Great Communicator. Barack Obama's ability to calmly drive home a message, under political pressure, earned him the moniker "No Drama Obama."

Biden lately has had the reverse Midas touch: The public feels worse about the direction of the country after hearing the president make his best pitch.

The big picture: Biden's team has been trying to sell voters on Bidenomics, capitalizing on the fact that there's no recession and inflation looks under control. Despite the public relations blitz, his economic approval rating has stagnated — and is worse than his overall approval numbers.

Ukraine has penetrated the first line of the Russian defense in its counteroffensive, a small but encouraging sign the war could be turning the corner. But Americans haven't heard any of this news from their commander-in-chief.

Biden has even failed to take political advantage of his campaign's playbook portraying MAGA Republicans as "siding with dictators over democracy."

By the numbers: A new Wall Street Journal poll shows that by a healthy 11-point margin (51%-40%), more voters view former President Trump as having a better record of accomplishments than Biden.

That's the clearest sign that Biden has badly lost the messaging war. Biden has spent the last several months traveling the country to pitch his economic record, but few are buying what he's selling.

That's not for a lack of a strong case: The American economy is significantly healthier than its European and Chinese counterparts. Wages are again growing faster than inflation.

But 58% of voters say the economy has gotten worse over the past two years, while only 28% say it has gotten better.

Between the lines: Biden has also struggled to showcase his much-vaunted empathy, which helped get him elected president in the first place.

During his trip to Hawai'i last month to visit the fire-charred remains of Lahaina, Biden faced tough reviews from across the political spectrum — including from beyond conservative media.

During the trip, Biden compared the disaster of a wiped-out town to his experience 15 years ago dealing with a small fire in his home.

"When President Joe Biden interrupted yet another of his vacations to visit the devastated island of Maui, tone-deafness was front and center," Detroit Free Press columnist Mitch Albom wrote.

"The fire he referenced, nearly two decades ago, was contained within 20 minutes by the local fire department," Albom continued. "The only thing worse than misplaced empathy is false empathy, told over and over — with the same phony story."

What they're saying: New York Times columnist Charles Blow, a reliable Biden defender, expressed frustration this week with the president's reticence to directly address Trump's legal woes.

"Biden adheres to a dignified silence approach, clinging almost religiously to the notion that voters will recognize and appreciate the difference between a restorer and a destroyer," Blow wrote.

At his Labor Day stop in Philadelphia that traditionally kicks off the campaign season, Biden didn't mention his leading rival's name at all.

Reality check: Biden allies say it's premature to judge the president's performance before the campaign has fully ramped up. The Biden campaign aired a new TV ad during last week's NFL season opener touting the president's economic achievements — part of a larger $25 million ad blitz.

The bottom line: Even the campaign's well-produced ads underscore Biden's limitations as a public speaker. Both of the campaign's latest spots — on the economy and his leadership in Ukraine — show visuals of the president but don't feature soundbites of him speaking.

MAGA Republicans as "siding with dictators

Biden's broken bully pulpit

Voters still aren't buying what the White House is selling.

Biden holds a press conference Sunday during a visit to Hanoi, Vietnam. Photo: Nhac Nguyen/AFP via Getty Images

Joe Biden

Politics & Policy

MAGA Inc., the super PAC allied with former President Trump's campaign, is up with its first ad directly hitting President Biden in an attempt to connect him to Hunter Biden's scrutinized business dealings.

Why it matters: The spot, which will begin airing Monday, is the first ad from the Trump-allied super PAC that looks ahead to a general election race against Biden. Until now, MAGA Inc. has focused on attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — Trump's leading primary rival.

House Republicans' investigation of the Biden family has found that Hunter Biden used his father's name to sell the "illusion of access," but they have not yet uncovered evidence of wrongdoing by the president.

The ad is a sign of Trumpworld's confidence in the former president's front-running position for the GOP nomination, and a belief that Biden will be vulnerable because of his son's questionable conduct.

Flashback: MAGA Inc. spent $23 million on ads from March 31 to June 22, primarily attacking DeSantis for backing cuts to Medicare and Social Security.

In July, the head of DeSantis' super PAC told the New York Times: "What would concern me is if I woke up one day and Trump and his team were not attacking Never Back Down and Ron DeSantis. That would be concerning."

Go deeper: The new ad leads with a narrator saying: "Hey, Joe! How come your Justice Department goes after Trump endlessly, yet they cover for your family?"

The ad cost MAGA Inc. $1.9 million and will air on CNN, Fox News and Newsmax through next week.

What they're saying: "The case against crooked Joe Biden and his corrupt family will be prosecuted throughout this election cycle, and voters will know the truth before casting their ballots next November," a source familiar with the super PAC's media strategy told Axios.

Reality check: Trump, facing 78 criminal charges across three cases as he runs for president, will be spending nearly as much time in the courtroom as on the campaign trail in the coming months.

It will be challenging to convince persuadable voters that Biden is just as corrupt, given those legal realities.

is up with its first ad directly hitting President Biden

Scoop: MAGA Inc. hits Hunter Biden in new ad blitz

Until now, MAGA Inc. had focused on attacking DeSantis.

Hunter Biden

<figure><img alt="" height="1080" id="21b5d20d-a025-4c86-b73c-2a31f1215232" src="https://images.axios.com/QEXvR85WkaNDLFQ22DaYUsPpPYg=/2023/08/06/1691335430689.jpg" width="1920"/><figcaption>Screenshot: MAGA Inc. ad</figcaption></figure>MAGA Inc., the super PAC allied with former President Trump&#x27;s campaign, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="is up with its first ad directly hitting President Biden" data-vars-click-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d81hJib1TaE" data-vars-content-id="2cbe3987-4f3a-49b6-990f-9a544c00758f" data-vars-headline="Scoop: MAGA Inc. hits Hunter Biden in new ad blitz" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d81hJib1TaE" target="_blank">is up with its first ad directly hitting President Biden</a> in an attempt to connect him to Hunter Biden&#x27;s scrutinized business dealings.Why it matters: The spot, which will begin airing Monday, is the first ad from the Trump-allied super PAC that looks ahead to a general election race against Biden. Until now, MAGA Inc. has focused on attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — Trump&#x27;s leading primary rival.

HUDSON, N.H. — Axios sat down with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley on Tuesday at a VFW hall here to discuss the state of the presidential race, her differences with former President Trump and what she hopes to accomplish at the GOP debate on Aug. 23.

Why it matters: There's no sign that Trump's legal troubles — which could peak with a staggering fourth indictment in Georgia this week — have done anything but strengthen his iron grip on the GOP base. But Haley says she isn't concerned — and believes the real race will begin after the debate.

Haley on drawing sharper contrasts with Trump: "The media just wants us to punch Trump. They do, and I will tell you if you ask me about policy differences, I'm happy to talk policy differences. If you want me to pick a personal fight with him, I have no reason to."

"You know, I had a great working relationship with him in the administration. Do we differ on policies? Yeah, we do. If that comes up, I'm happy to say it. But I'm not Trump-obsessed. I'm just not. I don't think you have to punch him all the time. I think there will be a time and place where we have disagreements and that'll play out. But I just don't think that our job is to go and give media more fodder and create a frenzy just because that's what's going to get your attention."

On her biggest policy differences with Trump: "He thinks Jan. 6 was a beautiful day. I think Jan. 6 was a terrible day. He spent like a drunken sailor. I am an accountant and I think that we have to get our debt under control, and we've got to stop this ridiculous spending that's caused the inflation we've got.

"He did a great job of focusing on China, but he just focused on trade. I think we need to be talking about the infiltration they're doing in our country. I think we need to talk about the modernization of their military. I think we need to talk about the fact that they see us as an enemy and they are preparing for war with us."

"He thinks the Ukraine-Russia situation [is] a territorial dispute. I don't. I know that a win for Russia is a win for China, and we better pay attention to that."

On whether Trump's Jan. 6 indictment is disqualifying: "Look, I didn't rush to put out a statement because I'm tired of responding to all the Trump drama.

"I've said that Jan. 6 was a terrible day, but he said the election was stolen. We have freedom of speech in this country. I don't think anyone can go to jail for saying an election was stolen. ... "

"I'm not diving into every one of these indictments. I don't obsess over it. In all of these town halls, no one is asking me about Trump. Nobody's asking me about indictments."

On whether Trump should debate: "I've never known him to be scared of anything. I would be shocked if he's scared to get on a debate stage. But we'll find out."

On what she hopes to accomplish at the first debate: "To be my true self. I love debates because I think it's a great opportunity for people to see who their options are. And I love policy."

On the state of the race: "Once the first debate starts and we get past Labor Day, it's off to the races."

"Everyone's panicked over how high Trump's numbers are. We're not worried about that. We're worried about making sure that we are touching as many hands, answering as many questions, doing as many town halls as we possibly can."

Nikki Haley "not worried" about Trump's dominant polling lead

"Once the first debate starts and we get past Labor Day, it's off to the races."

Nikki Haley

HUDSON, N.H. — Axios sat down with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley on Tuesday at a VFW hall here to discuss the state of the presidential race, her differences with former President Trump and what she hopes to accomplish at the GOP debate on Aug. 23.Why it matters: There&#x27;s no sign that Trump&#x27;s legal troubles — which could peak with a staggering <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fourth indictment in Georgia" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/12/politics/fulton-county-trump-investigation-explainer/index.html" data-vars-content-id="8cffb33e-926e-499e-b86a-bfdc451a38b4" data-vars-headline="Nikki Haley &quot;not worried&quot; about Trump&#x27;s dominant polling lead" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/12/politics/fulton-county-trump-investigation-explainer/index.html" target="_blank">fourth indictment in Georgia</a> this week — have done anything but strengthen his iron grip on the GOP base. But Haley says she isn&#x27;t concerned — and believes the real race will begin after the debate.

The possibility of a split congressional decision in 2024, with the Senate flipping to Republicans and the House turning over to Democrats, is looking increasingly likely.

Why it matters: By pursuing an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, House GOP leaders are making life awfully tough for their 18 vulnerable Republicans representing Biden 2020 districts. Threats of a government shutdown from GOP hardliners don't help either.

Meanwhile, Biden's persistently low approval ratings are making it very difficult for red-state senators vying for re-election — West Virginia's Joe Manchin, Montana's Jon Tester and Ohio's Sherrod Brown — to win enough split-ticket voters at a time of record polarization.

By the numbers: To win back control of the Senate, Republicans only need to net two seats (one if the GOP presidential nominee prevails).

The 2024 Senate map is historically favorable for Republicans: Republicans are aggressively contesting at least eight Democratic-held seats with Democrats hoping — in a best-case scenario — of putting Sen. Ted Cruz's Texas seat in play.

But House Republicans are in an equally precarious position. To win back control of the House, Democrats only need to flip a net five seats. A new House race analysis from Inside Elections (subscription) rates 11 seats as toss-ups — seven held by Republicans, and four by Democrats.

The big picture: With national polarization near all-time highs, most voters are casting straight-party ballots.

There are only five senators representing states carried by the opposing party's presidential candidate. Of those, the only ones up for re-election in 2024 are the three vulnerable Democratic senators mentioned above.

There are currently only 23 lawmakers (18 Republicans, 5 Democrats) representing House districts carried by the presidential candidate from the opposite party.

That means House Republicans face a whole lot more exposure than Democrats unless their swing-district members can create ample distance from their party's leadership.

Nine of the 18 Biden-district Republicans are freshmen who outperformed Trump by at least five points in last year's election. As a sitting lawmaker, convincing voters of your independence is more difficult when you have a voting record in Congress — especially with the higher turnout of a presidential election year.

Between the lines: House GOP and Senate Democratic leaders are employing two strategies to protect their most vulnerable members.

House GOP leaders have encouraged unity within their conference, with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) trying — often awkwardly — to find a middle ground that can satisfy both the pragmatists and the hardliners.

It's notable that politically vulnerable House Republicans haven't spoken out against the pursuit of an impeachment inquiry against Biden, even though they'll need to win over Biden voters to secure re-election.

By contrast, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is content to let his red-state senators demonstrate some independence from the White House (at least in an election year). Manchin is openly feuding with Biden, while Tester joined with Republicans on a vote to roll back an ESG rule — prompting Biden's first veto.

Reality check: Candidates still matter, despite the surge in partisan voting behavior.

The reason Senate Republicans have been active in endorsing preferred candidates against Manchin and Tester is that they recognize those Democrats have a track record in winning crossover votes — typically because of weak GOP challengers in the past.

House Democrats are also facing recruitment questions in several battleground districts where the leading candidates are to the left of a typical swing voter — and where crowded primaries could get messy.

House Republicans have a few recruitment challenges of their own against a handful of the Democrats representing Trump districts, where the losing GOP candidate from 2022 is seeking a rematch.

Driving the news: House Democrats have been getting favorable news on the redistricting front, with court decisions boosting their chances of picking up a seat in three Southern states: Alabama, Florida and Louisiana.

Democrats also have a reasonable chance of netting several additional seats if New York is ordered to redraw its congressional lines for 2024. The case will be decided later this year.

On the flip side, Republicans are expected to gain several seats from North Carolina's GOP-controlled redistricting.

Zoom in: Republicans and Democrats are tied on the congressional generic ballot at 44%, according to RealClearPolitics' polling average, with polls showing both parties are viewed unfavorably by most voters.

Biden and Trump are also virtually tied — Trump at 45.6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average.

The bottom line: The country is deeply divided, which foreshadows the likelihood of split government continuing past next year.

Political sentiment has remained remarkably stable over the last year — even in light of major political developments, like Trump's indictments. That's unlikely to change heading into 2024.

All politics is now national. That makes the fundamentals as significant as ever: A favorable map gives Senate Republicans an early edge, and House Democrats a slight advantage. The battle for the presidency, meanwhile, looks like a pure toss-up.

But if Biden, Trump (or any GOP opponent) pulls away in the presidential race, there's a good chance they'll hand their party the House majority as well.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to remove a reference to Tester voting against Biden's Labor nominee.

Analysis: Senate tilting red, House blue for 2024

The possibility of a split congressional decision in 2024 is looking increasingly likely.

2024 elections

The possibility of a split congressional decision in 2024, with the Senate flipping to Republicans and the House turning over to Democrats, is looking increasingly likely.Why it matters: By <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pursuing an impeachment inquiry" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/12/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-inquiry" data-vars-content-id="aa7f0a5a-7623-4685-9716-d95711e7dee7" data-vars-headline="Analysis: Senate tilting red, House blue for 2024" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/12/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-inquiry" target="_self">pursuing an impeachment inquiry</a> into President Biden, House GOP leaders are making life awfully tough for their 18 vulnerable Republicans representing Biden 2020 districts. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Threats of a government shutdown" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/government-shutdown-house-republicans-spending-mccarthy" data-vars-content-id="aa7f0a5a-7623-4685-9716-d95711e7dee7" data-vars-headline="Analysis: Senate tilting red, House blue for 2024" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/government-shutdown-house-republicans-spending-mccarthy" target="_self">Threats of a government shutdown</a> from GOP hardliners don&#x27;t help either.

One of the main reasons President Biden is struggling in polls against former President Trump is his glaring underperformance with a constituency that has long been overwhelmingly Democratic: non-white voters without a college degree.

Why it matters: As Democrats have made major gains with suburban and upper-middle-class voters since Trump's political ascendance, they've been losing support among blue-collar voters.

Pundits have focused heavily in recent years on white, working-class voters who changed their allegiances from former President Obama to Trump — and have made up a key part of the new GOP coalition.

But Democrats have lost significant ground among their non-white counterparts as well, turning a political weakness into a major headache heading into 2024.

The slippage is occurring even as Trump, the GOP's standard bearer, is facing an unprecedented trifecta of indictments in the run-up to the 2024 election.

By the numbers: In the New York Times/Siena poll released last week, Biden failed to win majority support from non-white voters who hadn't graduated from college.

His lead over Trump with this once-heavily Democratic constituency is just 16 points (49%–33%).

In 2020, Biden dominated Trump with these voters, winning by an overwhelming 48-point margin, according to an analysis by the Democratic data firm Catalist.

Obama won non-white working-class voters by a whopping 67-point margin in 2012.

Between the lines: Many of these voters are moderates, not progressives — especially when it comes to the polarizing cultural issues that Republicans are increasingly focused on.

Biden, who ran as a pragmatist in the 2020 presidential race, understood the importance of the non-white moderate vote.

In 2020, he struggled badly in the nation's first two nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, where most of the Democratic voters were white progressives. His comeback began in South Carolina, a state with many Black moderate voters.

Go deeper: Ruy Teixeira, an elections analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, flagged several key issues dragging down Democratic support with non-white working-class voters, based on recent polling.

Teixeira notes that the progressive worldview that racism is systemic in our society, rather than coming from individuals with racist views, is broadly unpopular among the non-white working class. He adds that debates over transgender rights also divide Democrats along class and educational lines.

Crime is another major factor: Working-class non-white voters feel the impact of crime in their communities most directly and favor more punitive policies than their left-wing counterparts.

Non-white working-class voters are not satisfied with the state of the economy, despite some clear signs of improvement. Opposition to Biden's environmental agenda — the view that Democrats are pushing the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy too quickly — is a consistent theme with working-class voters of all backgrounds.

What they're saying: "In 2020, very few Democrats thought their support against the hated and presumably toxic Trump could possibly slip among nonwhite working-class voters. But it did. I wouldn't be so sure it couldn't happen again," Teixeira wrote.

"Possibly none of this will matter if Trump's third indictment makes a bigger dent in his standing than his first and second indictments did. But I would not count on it."

Reality check: Democrats held many of these same vulnerabilities heading into the 2022 midterms yet overperformed expectations last year.  

One of the party's biggest concerns in 2022 was a feared further slippage of support among Hispanics. Yet Democrats managed to win 62% of the Hispanic vote, according to a Catalist analysis, the same share of the vote Biden received in 2020.

The bottom line: The fact that Biden's political fortunes aren't improving with a healthier economy is a sign that social and cultural issues still matter a lot in our politics.

Biden loses ground with working-class Black, Latino voters

The drop in support is one of the main reasons Biden is struggling in polls against Trump.

Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

One of the main reasons <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="President Biden" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/02/trump-indictment-hunter-biden-fitch-credit-rating" data-vars-content-id="d3e22c29-e7ad-424b-9670-0389bd1e9501" data-vars-headline="Biden loses ground with working-class Black, Latino voters" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/02/trump-indictment-hunter-biden-fitch-credit-rating" target="_self">President Biden</a> is <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="struggling" data-vars-click-url="https://scri.siena.edu/2023/08/01/biden-43-trump-43-in-early-head-to-head-matchup/" data-vars-content-id="d3e22c29-e7ad-424b-9670-0389bd1e9501" data-vars-headline="Biden loses ground with working-class Black, Latino voters" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://scri.siena.edu/2023/08/01/biden-43-trump-43-in-early-head-to-head-matchup/" target="_blank">struggling</a> <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="in polls" data-vars-click-url="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-trump-and-biden-on-course-for-tight-rematch/" data-vars-content-id="d3e22c29-e7ad-424b-9670-0389bd1e9501" data-vars-headline="Biden loses ground with working-class Black, Latino voters" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-trump-and-biden-on-course-for-tight-rematch/" target="_blank">in polls</a> against former President Trump is his glaring underperformance with a constituency that has long been overwhelmingly Democratic: non-white voters without a college degree.Why it matters: As Democrats have made major gains with suburban and upper-middle-class voters since Trump&#x27;s political ascendance, they&#x27;ve been losing support among blue-collar voters.

Josh Kraushaar

Stories

Analysis: Senate tilting red, House blue for 2024

Biden's broken bully pulpit

Nikki Haley "not worried" about Trump's dominant polling lead

Scoop: MAGA Inc. hits Hunter Biden in new ad blitz

Biden loses ground with working-class Black, Latino voters

Newsletter editions

🔄 Senate tilts red, House blue

📣 Biden's broken bully pulpit

🗣️ Nikki Haley 1-on-1

🚨 Biden's surprise vulnerability

🇺🇦 GOP's new isolationism