Axios Sneak Peek

October 08, 2023
Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, our weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics.
- Smart Brevityโข count: 1,345 words ... 5 minutes.
1 big thing: Chaos in Washington, war in Israel
Fire and smoke rise above buildings in Gaza City during an Israeli airstrike. Photo: Ibrahim Hams/AFP via Getty Images
Extreme political dysfunction in Washington is colliding with an unprecedented crisis in Israel, where Americans are believed to be among the hundreds of civilians killed or taken hostage in Gaza.
Why it matters: Geopolitical experts and historians have equated this to "Israel's 9/11" due to the scale, surprise and implications of the massive attack Hamas launched across the country yesterday.
- "The events of Saturday morning represent Israel's greatest military and intelligence failure in half a century โ if not in the 75 years of the country's existence," wrote Jerusalem Post editor in chief Avi Mayer.
- The possibility that Hamas is holding American hostages in Gaza could draw the U.S. even further into the crisis.
The latest: At least 700 Israelis and 413 Palestinians have been killed since Hamas launched its air, land and sea attack and Israel began retaliating with heavy bombardment against the besieged Gaza Strip.
State of play: Washington's current state of political chaos threatens to hamper the U.S. response to the crisis.
As Bloomberg's Steven Dennis points out:
- The speaker of the House position is vacant, with ongoing questions over whether any Republican can command a majority in an election planned for Wednesday.
- The U.S. has no Senate-confirmed ambassador to Israel, despite President Biden nominating former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in early September.
- The government is operating under a 45-day stopgap funding measure, with another shutdown deadline looming on Nov. 17.
- Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) is still blockading senior military promotions, which Pentagon officials have warned is damaging U.S. national security policy.
- The Senate is on recess this week.
What to watch: A bipartisan pair of House members is preparing a resolution condemning the attack on Israel and declaring that the U.S. "stands ready for urgent requests for additional assistance," Axios' Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke report.
- The resolution will declare "unwavering" American support for Israel and say the U.S. "stands ready for urgent requests for additional assistance Israel may require," according to a "dear colleague" letter soliciting signatures.
- It also will affirm Israel's right to act in self-defense, describe Hamas' attacks as "international terrorism and aggression," and call on Biden to provide intelligence, military and diplomatic support to Israel and foreign governments to expel Hamas personnel.
What they're saying: Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), one of the draft's lead organizers along with Don Davis (D-N.C.), told Axios it was coordinated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and "has most of the [freshmen] and many veterans as co-sponsors."
- A House Republican who signed on to the resolution said the plan is to introduce it when the House returns Tuesday โ before members are set to vote on a new speaker.
- Another House Republican described it as a "goodwill" resolution that "coincidentally, will test" what the House can do without a speaker if it's put to a vote before Wednesday's election.
2. ๐บ๐ธ Pentagon announces aid package
Israeli military vehicles drive along a road in Sderot. Photo: Ilia Yefimovich/picture alliance via Getty Images
The Pentagon announced an initial emergency military assistance package for Israel today, as well as the movement of U.S. Navy ships and aircraft closer to Israel as a show of support, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
Why it matters: Israel is preparing a wide-ranging offensive that could include a ground operation in Gaza, which would likely take many weeks and could lead to an escalation in other parts of the region.
The big picture: The initial Israeli request will not require new funding to be approved by Congress, but the administration is expected to give lawmakers a notification in advance, a U.S. official said.
- The package is expected to expedite munitions and other weapons that were already paid for by Israel or weapons that are in U.S. military stock and will be purchased with money already approved by Congress, the U.S. official said.
- Two U.S. officials said the Israeli Ministry of Defense has already given the Pentagon an initial list of weapons they need, which includes munitions for fighter jets.
Zoom out: President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday โ the two leaders' second call since the Hamas invasion began.
- The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said in a statement that "Biden reiterated his unreserved support for the State of Israel."
3. ๐ฎ๐ท Biden officials blast Iran narrative

The Biden administration is pushing back aggressively against claims that $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets transferred as part of a prisoner swap last month was used to fund the Hamas attack.
Why it matters: Republicans have accused Biden of incentivizing hostage-taking and emboldening Iran and its proxies โ including Hamas โ by transferring the funds to a restricted bank account in Qatar.
- U.S. officials stressed at the time of the deal that Iran would only be able to use the money for humanitarian transactions like purchasing food, medicine, medical devices and agricultural products.
- "They didn't have that level of aggression with me. They didn't have it. This would have never happened with me either," former President Trump said at a rally yesterday.
What they're saying: "Not a single cent has been spent from that account.ย When any money is spent from that account, it can only be used for medical supplies, for food, for medicine โ and those who are saying otherwise are either misinformed or misinforming, and it's wrong either way," Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC's "Meet the Press."
- Some Republicans have argued that money is "fungible" and Iran could free up other funds for terrorist activities, knowing it could access the $6 billion for humanitarian purposes.
- Pressed on that counterpoint, Blinken responded: "Iran has, unfortunately, always used and focused its funds on supporting terrorism, on supporting groups like Hamas, and it's done that when there have been sanctions, it's done that there haven't been sanctions."
4. ๐ Reads of the week
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
1. "Trump Announces $45.5 Million Fund-Raising Haul, Tripling DeSantis" (New York Times)
Why it matters: Nearly all of Trump's third-quarter fundraising haul can be used for the primary, while more than half of DeSantis' $15 million haul is earmarked for a general election.
- Trump's fundraising numbers have been supercharged in the aftermath of his indictments. His campaign sent fundraising appeals after his court appearances, which generated a surge of small-dollar donations.
2. "Will she run or won't she? Laphonza Butler's appointment could scramble California Senate race" (Los Angeles Times)
Why it matters: Even though newly appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) hasn't declared whether she'll run for a full term in the Senate, political reality suggests she doesn't have a clear path to win an election on her own.
- As a backroom power broker, she's not well known to California voters. It would take a lot of money and media for her to match the current Democratic Senate field (Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee) in attention and fundraising.
- Even if Butler ran a top-notch campaign, she'd be facing the likelihood that she'd split support with Lee among voters looking for a Black woman to serve in the role.
- That makes Gov. Gavin Newsom's appointment of Butler, the president of EMILY's List and a past president of California's powerful labor union, a politically savvy move. He said he didn't pick her as a placeholder but likely concluded that she functionally would be serving that role.
3. "Party-switching billionaire targets California Republicans" (Politico)
Why it matters: Former Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, who ran as a tough-on-crime businessman last year, is now working to help Democrats defeat many of the swing-district House Republicans who won with a similar message.
- Caruso, who narrowly lost to Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, is a former registered Republican and independent.
- Disillusionment with Democratic leadership in big cities played a major role in helping Republicans win a number of blue districts outside New York City and Los Angeles.
- Caruso said he will focus on targeting the five California Republicans โ most of them moderates โ who hold districts that Biden carried in 2020.
๐ฌ Thanks for starting your week with us. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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