With the MAGA wing of the Republican Party dominant in the presidential race and the speaker-less House of Representatives, the Senate is looking like the last bastion of old-school Republican influence.

• The party's leaders are looking to keep it that way by quietly boosting the prospects of more mainstream Senate candidates.

Why it matters: Republicans hold solid odds of winning back the Senate in 2024, with a historically favorable map putting Democrats on defense in numerous red-state and purple-state battlegrounds.

• So far, Senate Republicans — and those working to elect future GOP senators — have been successful in creating one remaining safe space for normalcy in a party that's grown increasingly nihilistic.
• The odds are growing that Republicans flip the Senate but lose control of the dysfunctional House in 2024.

What to watch: If Senate Republicans have a good showing in the 2024 elections, their majority would likely be powered by traditional conservatives who would fit in well in the pre-Trump Republican Party.

• That includes the likes of Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia, military veteran Tim Sheehy in Montana, businessman Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and former House Intelligence Committee chairman Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Driving the news: Some Senate Republicans are growing increasingly optimistic that businessman Eric Hovde will enter the race against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), giving the party a more credible and well-funded challenger than other right-wing alternatives.

Zoom in: Many of the GOP's touted candidates face right-wing primary challenges — offering a critical test of NRSC chairman Steve Daines' effectiveness in getting electable candidates nominated.

• Former Detroit police chief James Craig, positioning himself to the right of Rogers in the Michigan Senate race, announced his candidacy against the former congressman this month. Craig's launch video featured glowing commentary from former Fox host Tucker Carlson.
• Justice is also facing a right-wing primary challenge from Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.). Trump endorsed Justice this week, giving the governor a clear advantage in the race.
• Sheehy boasts party backing and numerous endorsements from GOP senators but still faces the possibility of a primary threat from Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), one of the eight House Republicans who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

Reality check: The overall trendlines are all pointing to the GOP moving in a much more populist and isolationist direction, even in the establishment-minded Senate.

• At least two-thirds of Republican voters are backing presidential candidates touting the MAGA line — Trump, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
• Even some of the more traditional candidates have made nods to the rising populism within their party. Rogers, for instance, slammed the Department of Justice as "politically motivated" in a campaign video this month — all but echoing Trump's conspiratorial view of his indictments.
• Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), chair of the GOP conference, endorsed MAGA favorite Kari Lake in Arizona's Senate race last week.

The bottom line: If the traditional wing of the GOP can maintain its beachhead in the Senate, it would bode well for its ability to still have a strong voice despite the party's MAGA-aligned orientation.

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A wave of new polling in the aftermath of Hamas' terrorist attack against Israel shows a significant uptick in support for the Jewish state — especially among Democrats, who had been growing less supportive of Israel.

Why it matters: President Biden's stalwart support for Israel — equating Hamas with ISIS terrorists — is putting a lot of pressure on rank-and-file Democrats to fall in line.

• Several progressive lawmakers affiliated with the Squad are suddenly facing credible primary competition from challengers looking to make support for Israel and equivocation over terrorism an issue in their races.

By the numbers: A CNN poll conducted Oct. 12-13 found that over two-thirds of 1,003 respondents believe the Israeli military response in Gaza was either "fully justified" (50%) or "partially justified" (20%) (methodology here).

• Among Democrats, the support for Israeli military countermeasures was nearly as high: 38% said they would be "fully justified," while 30% said they would be partially justified.

An Oct. 7-9 Fox News survey of 1,007 randomly selected registered voters found 68% side more with the Israelis, with just 18% siding with the Palestinians. Support for Israel spiked nine percentage points since May 2021, when the pollster last asked the question.

• The uptick was mostly attributable to rising support for Israel among Democrats: 59% now say they side with the Israelis, and just 25% with the Palestinians.

Zoom in: Over three-fourths of 1,737 adults in a Quinnipiac poll taken Oct. 12-16 think supporting Israel is in the national interest of the United States — including 84% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats and 74% of independents.

• Only 20% of Americans said the U.S. was "too supportive" of Israel — with the greatest degree of opposition (30%) centered on the youngest voters ages 18-34.

Between the lines: The improved public opinion toward Israel among Democrats is also translating into legislative activity on Capitol Hill.

• Many typically progressive lawmakers who normally call for de-escalation and restraint from Israel have held back for now.
• J Street, the progressive Israel advocacy group, is telling supportive members of Congress that sponsorship of a bipartisan pro-Israel resolution is a prerequisite for their endorsement in 2024.

The bottom line: Israel's expected ground invasion of Gaza, which is likely to involve heavy urban combat and destruction, will offer the biggest test of whether the uptick in Democratic support for Israel is long-lasting.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is spending significant political capital to hold the GOP's narrow majority in the Virginia state General Assembly.

Driving the news: This recent ad for Riley Shaia, one of the party's top recruits in a blue district, is an example of his aggressive campaign efforts.

• "To keep Virginia the best place to live, work and raise a family, I need you to vote for Riley Shaia," Youngkin says in the ad, after joking about their height difference.
• "Like me, she's a political outsider. Riley's a small-business owner and a mom who knows how to create jobs and keep our kids safe."

Why it matters: Virginia's state legislative elections are among the biggest off-year elections this November.

• The outcome will show how much political capital Youngkin holds in a Democratic-leaning state. A strong GOP showing would further raise Youngkin's national profile.
• To date, this is the only ad for a GOP legislative candidate that Youngkin has appeared in, according to a source close to the governor.

Go deeper: The suburban Richmond district that Shaia is running in is a Democratic-leaning seat — one that would be a bellwether for a big Republican night if she prevails.

• Youngkin lost the district by five points in 2021, which makes his presence in the ad all the more significant. Trump lost it by seven points in 2020.
• Shaia, a former physical therapist, is running against Democratic state Del. Rodney Willett.
• She is one of the few Republicans to break with her party on abortion, favoring Virginia's current law restricting abortion at 26 weeks over Youngkin's proposal for 15 weeks, except for cases of rape, incest and a threat to the life of the mother.

By the numbers: Youngkin's PAC (Spirit of Virginia), which launched in 2021, has raised nearly $20 million for Republicans running in the biggest state legislative battlegrounds.

1. "These are the Republicans who voted against Jim Jordan for speaker" (CNN)

Why it matters: One of the stunning takeaways from the House votes on Jordan was that the right-wing candidate fell far short of the votes necessary to become speaker, yet still won support from a majority of the vulnerable House Republicans representing districts Biden carried.

• Twelve of the 18 House Republicans in Biden districts voted for Jordan on the first round of balloting. The only six who didn't were Reps. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Lori Chavez-Deremer (R-Ore.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.).
• The same number of blue-district Republicans voted for Jordan again on the second ballot. But on the third ballot, three additional Biden-district Republicans abandoned him — a sign that supporting Jordan is politically problematic.
• That puts a lot of vulnerable Republicans in the worst possible position: Their record includes a vote for a conservative hardliner as leader even as he didn't come close to the winning threshold.

2. "Trump Endorses Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia Senate Race" (New York Times)

Why it matters: Trump's endorsement of Justice gives the popular West Virginia governor a significant edge in his primary against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.).

• Justice is only the third Republican Senate candidate he's endorsed — following Indiana's Jim Banks, who's running unopposed, and Arizona's Kari Lake — and the only one facing an opponent to his ideological right.
• Mooney only raised $266,000 in third-quarter fundraising, less than half of Justice's financial haul. Without a surge in donations, it'll be hard for Mooney to come from behind and defeat the better-known sitting governor.