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Axios AM Deep Dive: Midterms power shift

National

Fundamentals still matter in politics: The party out of power almost always gains congressional seats in a midterm. Presidents with underwater job approval ratings typically suffer sizable congressional losses. 

Why it matters: Yes, Democrats' fortunes have improved, but the most likely outcome of the midterm elections is still a shift in power to the Republicans — and bigger headaches for President Biden over the next two years.

There's no doubt that Democrats have made significant gains over the summer. They've been boosted by lower gas prices and are benefiting from outrage over the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade.  

Democrats are also getting help from the GOP's nomination of extreme candidates in a number of pivotal Senate and gubernatorial contests.  Republicans have diminished their chances by choosing MAGA-oriented contenders in swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire. 

But the underlying data still indicates Republicans are heavily favored to win back control of the House, and they hold solid odds of netting the one seat necessary to take back the Senate majority as well. 

By the numbers: Biden's job approval now stands at 42% in the FiveThirtyEight average, up almost five points from his lower-water mark in July. Democrats hold a one-point advantage on the generic ballot in the polling average, up four points since the summer.

These are still weak numbers for the party in power, but improved from this summer's rock-bottom standing.

Results from special House elections have also suggested a fairly neutral political environment. In August, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) held onto a swing House seat by two points in a district that backed Biden by two points. 

An August all-party primary in a bellwether Washington state district carried by Biden showed Republicans making small inroads.

Democrats, led by Rep. Kim Schrier, won 49.6% of the vote while Republicans tallied 49.2% of the vote. That's a diminished margin from Biden's seven-point margin and Schrier's four-point win in 2020.

Between the lines: Democrats are touting benefits from Biden's bipartisan infrastructure bill, and a health care and climate change spending package that passed along partisan lines. 

But they're also homing in on Republican opposition to abortion rights, convinced the issue will drive up base turnout and persuade swing-voting independents (especially women) to stick with the Democrats.

Republicans have been hammering Democrats over the state of the economy, but lately have also focused on crime and immigration as part of their midterm message. 

The Senate map: Despite the streak of discouraging news, Republicans still have a clear path to retaking the Senate majority. They only need to net one seat to win back the upper chamber, and there are plenty of paths to get there even if many of their recruits fizzle out.

Control of the Senate will likely come down to three races: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The party that wins two of those three is poised to hold a narrow majority. 

The House map: It won't take a red wave for Republicans to win back the House: Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy only needs to net five seats to hold the majority.  

But margins will matter for McCarthy's ability to govern. If he only wins a narrow majority, hard-right rebels will make his job very difficult. The bigger the wave, the more pragmatic-minded Republicans are likely to get elected from bluer districts. 

The biggest bellwethers will take place in suburban districts that Biden and House Democrats narrowly carried in 2020. 

On election night, keep a close eye on the districts of Reps. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) as indications of whether Democrats have a chance at holding the majority.

The bottom line: Two things can be true at the same time: Republicans are still well-positioned to win back the House and the Senate, but expectations for bigger gains are looking less likely.

1. The coming power shift

The most likely outcome is still a shift in power to the Republicans.

Illustration of a scale spilling the image in half.

Deep Dive - 2022 midterms

Fundamentals still matter in politics: The party out of power almost always gains congressional seats in a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="midterm" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" data-vars-content-id="1e4475d1-40d2-4e7c-bb6a-5f0278192ff2" data-vars-headline="The coming power shift" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" target="_self">midterm</a>. Presidents with underwater job approval ratings typically suffer sizable congressional losses. Why it matters: Yes, Democrats&#x27; fortunes have improved, but the most likely outcome of the midterm elections is still a shift in power to the Republicans — and bigger headaches for President Biden over the next two years.

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Here are five of the most hotly contested congressional races that political insiders are watching closely to determine whether Democrats will beat expectations on Nov. 8, or whether a red wave could reemerge just before Election Day.

Between the lines: If these seats stay or turn red, Republicans can pop the champagne corks early. But if Democrats hold their ground on friendly turf, it's a sign that any Republican wave has turned into a ripple.

1. Pennsylvania Senate: A John Fetterman victory over Mehmet Oz would singlehandedly open up the Democrats' path to the majority. It would signal early on that Democrats are capable of winning a state where President Biden's approval is in rough shape, while forcing Republicans to unseat at least two sitting Democratic senators elsewhere.

But if Oz comes from behind to win, it would be a sign that the polls underestimated the depth of Republican enthusiasm and economic malaise — a dynamic that could easily replicate itself elsewhere.

2. Nebraska-02: Rep. Don Bacon is one of the most battle-tested Republicans, regularly winning a critical mass of Democrats in a Biden-friendly suburban Omaha district. 

But Democrats nominated a more moderate challenger this year — state Sen. Tony Vargas — and are hoping the Democratic DNA of the district reasserts itself. A Democratic upset here would be a major red flag for GOP prospects.

3. Pennsylvania-08: Rep. Matt Cartwright represents one of the few remaining Democratic-held districts that former President Trump carried in 2020, and he's facing a rematch against the Republican (Jim Bognet) he narrowly defeated that year.  

This northeastern Pennsylvania district, which contains Biden's birthplace of Scranton, has immense symbolic value for the White House. It also carries significance for Trump, who held his first general election rally this year in the district for the GOP ticket.

4. Oregon-05: One of the biggest tests this election is whether ideologically-driven candidates from both parties can appeal to swing voters. MAGA-oriented Republicans have struggled on that front, but progressives are showing weaknesses as well.  

Attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who ousted moderate Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary, is betting her progressive views won't cost her. But Republicans are bullish that they can flip a Biden +9 district with Hispanic mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. If Republicans win in Oregon, it will be a long night for Team Blue.

5. Virginia-07: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger's race into safer "lean Democratic" territory, but she's not out of the political woods.

Republicans are still spending money against her, and they think the compelling biography of Yesli Vega — a Hispanic county supervisor and law enforcement officer — is as significant as her conservative views and ties to Trump.

Spanberger's early victory in 2018 over a right-wing Republican congressman was an early signal of the Democratic wave that year. If Republicans return the favor in 2022, it would be a sign of a wave in the opposite direction.

2. The 5 bellwethers of a GOP wave election

If these seats stay or turn red, Republicans can pop the champagne corks early.

Illustration of a prize ribbon with abstract ballot elements in the background.

Here are five of the most hotly contested congressional races that political insiders are watching closely to determine whether Democrats will beat expectations on Nov. 8, or whether a red wave could reemerge just before <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Election Day" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" data-vars-content-id="9884e58d-004f-49c6-9cb1-df766f661271" data-vars-headline="The 5 bellwethers of a GOP wave election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" target="_self">Election Day</a>.Between the lines: If these seats stay or turn red, Republicans can pop the champagne corks early. But if Democrats hold their ground on friendly turf, it&#x27;s a sign that any Republican wave has turned into a ripple.

The midterm elections will show whether former President Trump's endorsement power is still strong enough to reshape the Republican Party by sweeping his handpicked candidates into office.

Why it matters: If enough of Trump's candidates win in November, he'll show he still has the power to reshape the GOP. If they lose, he'll show his main superpower is to blow winnable races.

The big picture: So far, Trump has been a player in the elections, but not a kingmaker.

While he's still seen as the most powerful Republican in the country, and most of the primary candidates he's endorsed still won, a dozen high-profile losses in crucial races have added to doubts that his star power is as strong as it once was as he charts a likely 2024 presidential run.

Compounding matters for Trump — who's already bogged down by multiple investigations — is that many of the candidates he has endorsed for the House and Senate are seen as a drag on the GOP's efforts to retake both chambers.

Between the lines: Trump-backed Republican nominees are lagging behind their Democratic rivals in the polls and fundraising. 

They include Trump-endorsed Senate candidates — notably JD Vance in Ohio, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona — as well as gubernatorial nominees Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tudor Dixon in Michigan.

Their election woes add to feuding within the party — most notably between the chairman of Republicans' Senate campaign arm, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — about candidate quality, and many Republicans privately blame Trump for putting them in this position.

High-profile alternatives whom many GOP leaders considered strong potential candidates, such as Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, refused to throw their hats into the Senate ring, in large part due to Trump's attacks.

Meanwhile, many candidates who Trump has endorsed, like Oz and Senate candidate Herschel Walker in Georgia, have controversial histories that have made many Republicans wary.

Oz has been attacked as a "carpetbagger" who lives in New Jersey, while Walker has been targeted over violence in his past relationships, as well as for keeping some of his children a secret.

The bottom line: Each of these races will be decisive as to which party controls the Senate next year.

3. Trump's big bet

The fate of his endorsed candidates will show whether he still has the power to reshape the GOP.

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="midterm elections" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" data-vars-content-id="0fcb6535-41ff-4530-90be-a661a4750bc4" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s big bet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" target="_self">midterm elections</a> will show whether former President <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Trump&#x27;s endorsement power" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/01/trump-endorsement-tracker-midterms" data-vars-content-id="0fcb6535-41ff-4530-90be-a661a4750bc4" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s big bet" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/01/trump-endorsement-tracker-midterms" target="_self">Trump&#x27;s endorsement power</a> is still strong enough to reshape the Republican Party by sweeping his handpicked candidates into office.Why it matters: If enough of Trump&#x27;s candidates win in November, he&#x27;ll show he still has the power to reshape the GOP. If they lose, he&#x27;ll show his main superpower is to blow winnable races.

What worries you the most if...

Note: Respondents could choose up to two answers out of 10 options. Data: Axios/Ipsos Poll; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios

Americans' most common worry if Democrats keep control of Congress is the economy worsening, while concerns about a GOP takeover are more divided, according to an Axios-Ipsos poll.

Why it matters: If the economy and inflation are on voters' minds more than other issues come November, the burden will fall on President Biden and his party.

It will likely be easier for Republicans to mobilize voters around those concerns than for Democrats to focus on any particular case against Republican control.

Americans' concerns about Republicans are divided among the economy, President Biden being blocked from getting things done, and too much focus on divisive social issues and election conspiracy theories.

What they're saying: "The economy remains the single biggest issue facing the country. That puts added pressure on the Democrats and President Biden for what happens with the economy," said Ipsos vice president Mallory Newall.

"If things get worse, the public will hold them accountable."

Another warning sign for Democrats, according to Ipsos senior vice president Chris Jackson: "Democratic support for Democrats is pretty tepid, whereas Republican opposition to Democrats is solid."

Between the lines: Overall, voters aren't significantly more worried about Democrats keeping control of Congress or Republicans winning it. What worries them most is a divided government, which could happen if Republicans win the House but Democrats keep the Senate.

53% say they would be worried about one party controlling the Senate and the other controlling the House.

By contrast, 49% said they'd be worried about Democrats keeping control of Congress, while 46% said they'd be worried if Republicans win both the Senate and the House.

If Democrats keep control of Congress, more than four in 10 respondents — 43% — said they'd be worried about the economy or inflation getting worse

That's largely driven by Republicans (64%), but 38% of independents share that concern.

By comparison, just 18% worry that Democrats would spend too much time investigating former President Trump; 18% fear there would be no checks on Biden's power; and 16% are concerned that Americans' confidence in government would decline. 

If Republicans gain control, people would have several concerns of roughly equal weight:

24% say they're concerned that the economy or inflation could get worse, while 23% worry that Biden won't be able to get anything done.

21% are concerned Republicans would spend too much time on divisive social issues — which likely reflects a concern about abortion, according to Newall. (13% raised that concern about Democrats if they keep control.)

In addition, 19% worry that political violence will increase if Republicans win Congress. 18% say Trump's claims of election fraud could gain more traction, and 17% say Americans' confidence in the government could decline.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted Sept. 23-26 with a national sample of 1,004 general population adults age 18 or older, randomly drawn from Ipsos' online panel, partner online panel sources and "river" sampling.

The poll has a credibility interval of ±3.8 percentage points for results based on the entire sample of adults.

4. Axios/Ipsos poll: Midterms warning for Democrats

Many Americans worry that the economy could get worse if they keep control of Congress.

Americans&#x27; most common worry if Democrats keep <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="control of Congress" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" data-vars-content-id="99460813-c4fe-4d5b-b59e-ca578e454e2a" data-vars-headline="Axios/Ipsos poll: Midterms warning for Democrats" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/midterm-elections-2022" target="_self">control of Congress</a> is the economy worsening, while concerns about a GOP takeover are more divided, according to an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos poll" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/americans-worried-midterms-could-bring-divided-government-gridlock" data-vars-content-id="99460813-c4fe-4d5b-b59e-ca578e454e2a" data-vars-headline="Axios/Ipsos poll: Midterms warning for Democrats" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/americans-worried-midterms-could-bring-divided-government-gridlock" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos poll</a>.Why it matters: If the economy and inflation are on voters&#x27; minds more than other issues come November, the burden will fall on President Biden and his party.

Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: Watch these states in November for a preview of 2024 election litigation.

Why it matters: Election deniers who win statewide or federal office in presidential battleground states could pose the biggest danger to American democracy.

What we're watching: The Brennan Center is tracking social media posts, statements, campaign ads and websites of candidates in those 10 states, highlighting those who argue the 2020 presidential election processes or results were illegitimate.

"Part of what's really scary is that the election denier movement is sort of infiltrating every part of this space," Sean Morales-Doyle of the Brennan Center's Voting Rights Program tells Axios. 

"If the chief election officer for a state does not believe in elections, we are in a very scary place."

By the numbers: About 60% of Americans will have an election denier on the ballot in November, per a FiveThirtyEight analysis. 

NPR found at least 20 Republicans who question President Biden's victory and who sought to be secretary of state — the chief election position in many states. Sabato's Crystal Ball also has been tracking these contests.

The GOP nominees for governor in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have each cast doubt on the results and would all have a role in administering their state's elections, per the Washington Post.

Arizona, Georgia and Texas are among states where voting changes could disproportionately inhibit voters of color from casting votes.

Zoom in: Some governors are directly involved in election certification and in some states — Florida, Texas, Virginia, New Jersey and Delaware — for appointing the chief election official, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

With their veto power, they can also serve as the last line of defense against changes to state voting laws that could make it more difficult for some people to cast ballots.

Some gubernatorial candidates themselves have questioned the 2020 election, including in Pennsylvania, where Republican state Sen. Doug Mastri­ano convened hear­ings about elec­tion fraud and has said he would "decertify" voting machines.

5. Where election denial could matter most

Watch these states for victories by candidates who baselessly dispute the 2020 election results.

Illustration of a falling voting booth against a background with abstract ballot elements.

Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: Watch these states in November for a preview of 2024 election litigation.Why it matters: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Election deniers" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/18/donald-trump-election-deniers-2024" data-vars-content-id="89f531b5-fe94-456b-9af6-8dd28a4a215e" data-vars-headline="Where election denial could matter most" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/18/donald-trump-election-deniers-2024" target="_self">Election deniers</a> who win statewide or federal office in presidential battleground states could pose the biggest danger to American democracy.

More than 200 election deniers — candidates promoting baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Trump — will appear on November general election ballots across the U.S.

Why it matters: Those who win will gain footing to affect future elections including the 2024 presidential race — through court challenges, administrative actions, executive orders, legislation, radical interpretation of law or the refusal to certify valid results, elections experts tell Axios.

Here's how the following offices could matter if they're won by election deniers.

Secretaries of state — They matter because they're the chief election officers in 24 states where they're elected by the voters, and in four others where they're appointed by the governor, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. 

That would give election deniers enormous potential power to administer elections based on their false claims about the 2020 election — or refuse to stand up to pressure to change election results.

"The secretaries of state are key and no one knows about them," said New York University's Ruth Ben-Ghiat, author of "Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present." "These are figures who work in the background if democracy is robust."

Governors — A governor who disputes the 2020 election results can appoint chief election officials in five states (Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas and Delaware), according to NCSL. 

That would become an issue in Pennsylvania, where Republican nominee Doug Mastriano has talked about the importance of his secretary of state pick as he spreads false claims about the 2020 election.

The governor can also refuse to certify election results, as Kari Lake, the Republican nominee in Arizona, says she would have done with that state's results in 2020. 

Attorneys general — This office matters because a state attorney general can file lawsuits based on bogus stolen election claims, as Texas' Ken Paxton did in a lawsuit that was rejected by the Supreme Court.

House and Senate: They can certify a state's presidential election results in 2024 — or, as we saw in 2020, they can object and potentially throw an orderly presidential transition into chaos.

6. Election denial: The offices that matter

Here's how candidates who baselessly dispute the 2020 election results could gain power.

More than <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="200 election deniers" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/18/donald-trump-election-deniers-2024" data-vars-content-id="d2516181-1196-4aed-984d-738603f56073" data-vars-headline="Election denial: The offices that matter" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/18/donald-trump-election-deniers-2024" target="_self">200 election deniers</a> — candidates promoting baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Trump — will <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="appear on November general election ballots" data-vars-click-url="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-trump-election-fraud/" data-vars-content-id="d2516181-1196-4aed-984d-738603f56073" data-vars-headline="Election denial: The offices that matter" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-trump-election-fraud/" target="_blank">appear on November general election ballots</a> across the U.S.Why it matters: Those who win will gain footing to affect future elections including the 2024 presidential race — through court challenges, administrative actions, executive orders, legislation, radical interpretation of law or the refusal to certify valid results, elections experts tell Axios.