Axios

Untangling the largest disruption in oil market history won't happen quickly or easily — and that means continued high prices and scarcity in major importing countries.

Why it matters: A big thing to watch following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal is whether it gives tanker owners enough certainty to begin resumption of large-scale traffic of oil, petroleum products and other commodities through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gasoline prices could start reversing nationally in the next two days by dropping a few cents daily, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Average U.S. gas prices have climbed more than 70 cents over the past month due to the Iran conflict, presenting a worsening political headache for President Trump.

Crude oil prices dropped sharply Tuesday evening, falling well under $100 per barrel after President Trump said the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran that Pakistan had proposed.

Why it matters: It's the biggest one-day free fall in oil prices since the 1991 Gulf War.

Driving the news: The global benchmark Brent crude futures price fell about 13% to about $95 a barrel. But it's still far above the roughly $73 mark right before the war began at the end of February.

• WTI, the U.S. benchmark, was down to about $96 a barrel, a drop of about 14 percent.

The big picture: The agreement is subject to Iran to allowing "complete" reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said.

• The de facto closure of the waterway — which handles about a fourth of the world's seaborne oil trade — has brought the largest disruption in oil market history.
• Iran's minister of foreign affairs issued a statement on behalf of the country's Supreme National Security Council saying that passage through the strait "will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations."
• No further details about any limitations were provided.

What we're watching: Whether shippers have enough confidence in safe passage of the narrow waterway off Iran to resume shipments of oil, liquefied natural gas and other products.

• Ship operators' confidence that they won't be attacked "is the one and only litmus test to assess whether energy flows are likely to resume," said Clayton Seigle, an oil analyst at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
• He said he expects operators to seek permission from Tehran.
• "We'll know from tracking platforms and anecdotal reporting of tanker movements whether they get it," he said in an email. "So the real question here is whether Tehran grants new assurances to ship operators that they'll be safe in resuming normal activities."

The physical oil market remains in turmoil after Middle East producers lowered output with export routes cut off.

• Dated Brent — the global benchmark for real-world, physical barrels of crude oil — reached its highest recorded price of $144.42, according to S&P Global Energy Platts. The previous record was set in 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.
• Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut-in 7.5 million barrels per day of crude production in March, with a higher figure this month, according to Energy Department's stats arm.

Go deeper: Iran ceasefire may bring gasoline relief by Friday, analyst says

Editor's note: This story has been updated with an oil price chart.

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) has tapped Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) to join his whip team, replacing former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) who is now secretary of Homeland Security.

Why it matters: Sheehy will be responsible for sounding out senators on how they intend to vote on consequential pieces of legislation, as Congress weighs a second reconciliation package and a potential supplemental to replenish munitions used in Iran.

President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday did little to stem the growing tide of calls from congressional Democrats for his impeachment or removal via the 25th Amendment.

Why it matters: The Republican support needed for these efforts to succeed is highly unlikely to materialize, but Democrats are desperate to show their voters that they are doing everything they can to get Trump out of office.

The U.S. has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran proposed by Pakistan, President Trump said Tuesday night.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran's acceptance and said Iran would allow "safe passage" of the Strait of Hormuz during those two weeks "via coordination with Iran's armed forces."

The big picture: The Pakistani proposal, which came hours before Trump's deadline to launch massive strikes if no deal was reached, involves a pause on Trump's threat and a commitment from Iran to open the strait.

Pope Leo XIV denounced President Trump's threat to wipe out Iran's civilization on Tuesday.

The big picture: The first U.S.-born pontiff told reporters in Italian "this threat against the entire people of Iran" is "truly unacceptable," according to a Vatican News translation.

With a few exceptions, congressional Republicans were silent on Tuesday as the clock ticked down on President Trump's threat to wipe out Iranian civilization unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened.

Why it matters: Republicans in Congress have shown unwavering loyalty to Trump, and the president's threat against Iran appears to be no exception to the long-standing pattern of limited GOP resistance.

Military officers could face a moral dilemma if President Trump follows through on threats to bomb Iran's civilian infrastructure, military law experts tell Axios.

The big picture: Established procedures and rules of warfare dictate that civilian infrastructure is protected from an attack, and though the Joint Chiefs' chair says the U.S. military has abided by "normal procedures," Trump's rhetoric dramatically raises those stakes.

Four states — Tennessee, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska — say they're interested in hosting the entire range of nuclear energy-related development, including high-level waste.

Why it matters: The Energy Department hopes that by building what amount to nuclear mega-cities for such activities as uranium enrichment and fuel fabrication, states will have to address the thornier problem of waste as well.

The Iran war has scattered the highly concentrated helium supply chain, knocking out a significant share of global production for a practically irreplaceable element.

Why it matters: Helium does more than fill party balloons: It's critical for cooling highly advanced tech and integral to chip production and medical imaging. Now, roughly a third of the world's supply is in limbo.

Calls for President Trump's removal from office reached a fever pitch among congressional Democrats on Tuesday after he threatened that "a whole civilization will die tonight" in a post about Iran.

Why it matters: Lawmakers are openly floating impeachment or even removal via the 25th Amendment — a far cry from the strict taboo around such procedures at the start of Trump's second term.

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by President Trump's 8pm ET deadline still looks like a long shot, according to a U.S. official, an Israeli official and two other sources with knowledge of the talks.

• A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from "can we get there?" to "can we get there by 8 o'clock tonight?"

Why it matters: Failure to reach a deal by the deadline —or at least make enough progress to convince Trump to extend it— would lead to an unprecedented escalation in the war.

American consumers are bracing for an Iran war inflation jolt, though they don't anticipate the effects will linger.

• That's the upshot of the New York Federal Reserve Bank's March Survey of Consumer Expectations, the first to capture sentiment since the war began.

Why it matters: So far, that is more consistent with a one-time inflation surge than the alternative outcome that might alarm the Fed: signs of unmooring in long-run inflation expectations.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright says on the upcoming episode of "The Katie Miller Podcast" that repairing the Persian Gulf's energy infrastructure must be a priority, but acknowledges a "rough patch" until the war in Iran ends.

Why it matters: Rising gas prices are the biggest way most Americans are feeling Operation Epic Fury. President Trump and his Cabinet are making the case that the increases will be temporary, and are worth it in the long run.

The throttling of oil and gas flows could push multiple countries to try to cut exposure to seaborne energy commodities — and create different risks in the process.

Why it matters: The Iran crisis is chaotic and costly enough to spur long-term policy changes.

President Trump faces a momentous decision on a tight timeline: carry out his threat to obliterate Iran's infrastructure beginning at 8pm ET, or push his own deadline again to give negotiations a chance.

Why it matters: Trump has threatened to destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran by midnight, among other options that would have devastating consequences for ordinary Iranians and spark dangerous retaliation across the region.

A Truth Social post last month had Washington and media insiders scratching their heads: Why exactly had President Trump attacked The New York Times' Maggie Haberman and some of her "associates" — when everyone in the West Wing knew that she and her reporting partner, Jonathan Swan, had been on book leave for months?

• Now it can be told: Haberman and Swan were on the president's radar because the two supremely wired reporters, stars of the news organization the president is most obsessed with, have been working for more than two years on a book that's causing high anxiety in Trumpworld.

The book is complete, and Axios can reveal its title: "Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump." It'll be out June 23 from Simon & Schuster.

After saying it wanted to keep federal payments to private Medicare plans roughly flat next year, the Trump administration reversed course on Monday and gave the insurers a $13 billion pay bump.

Why it matters: The average 2.48% pay increase for 2027 was on the high end of analysts' expectations and marked a win for UnitedHealthcare, Humana and other Medicare Advantage plans, whose stocks tumbled after the administration's initial proposal in January.

Vice President Vance on Tuesday will plunge into Europe's most volatile election in years — a Hungarian campaign engulfed by spy scandals, sabotage and unprecedented peril for MAGA's favorite foreign ally.

Why it matters: Viktor Orbán is the cornerstone of President Trump's vision for Europe. The pro-Kremlin, anti-EU strongman has spent 16 years building a template for Christian nationalist rule now embraced by the American right.