GOP banking on Trump's wall of cash to stop Dems in midterms

Zoom in: Trump's war chest tops a half-billion dollars — $300 million in the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC and several hundred million more in Securing American Greatness, an allied nonprofit that doesn't have to disclose its donations.

• Despite the terrible polls, a series of recent GOP election losses and projections that the party could lose the House majority in November, top Republicans see hope in their financial might.
• Another thing they're counting on: a highly motivated Trump, who can't seek reelection but is desperate to prevent a Democratic takeover of the House, which he thinks would lead to his third impeachment.

The president is aggressively hitting up donors and hosting $1 million-a-plate fundraisers at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

• Democrats are scrambling to raise money but have nothing comparable to Trump's cash-flush operation. The Democratic National Committee has been outraised by the Republican National Committee by 7 to 1.

Inside the room: Trump aides are using some of their operation's money to build a massive data operation targeting hard-to-reach voters.

• Senior Trump political advisers Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio told major donors in Nashville last week that they've designed a data program targeted to voters in roughly three dozen House districts and several states that have key Senate races in November.
• They said they've been refining their data program since the 2024 campaign.

Yes, but: As with anything when it comes to Trump, plans can change on a whim.

• The president is notoriously protective of his money, and takes great interest in how its spent.

Some top Republicans worry that Trump might decide not to spend much from his allied super PAC — and simply keep all that cash or wait to unload it just before the election.

• That's what happened in the 2022 midterms, when Trump amassed piles of cash but ended up using little of it — and withheld much of his spending until late in the campaign.
• Republican strategists argue that had Trump invested more aggressively it could have made a difference in that year's election, when Democrats performed better than expectations.

The other side: Some Republicans warn that all the TV ads in the world won't be able to change how voters feel about the economy, the issue that surveys indicate is the most likely to swing the election.

• And they argue that what really matters now is whether candidates can connect with voters in a visceral way.

Former senior Trump adviser Steve Bannon pointed to democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani's surprise win in last year's New York City mayoral race as an example.

• "Money has lost its edge," Bannon said. What makes the difference is "authenticity, urgency, energy [and] grassroots commitment."

What's next: Trump's political bank account is still growing, and he's been far more eager to court donors than he was during his first term.

• Many corporate executives have discovered that the best way to curry favor with Trump is by writing checks to his political operation.

Tens of millions of dollars landed in the GOP's coffers over the last few weeks alone.

• A new political operation run by longtime Trump adviser Taylor Budowich announced it would spend $100 million-plus to boost Trump's AI agenda, which seeks a national standard of light regulation.
• A super PAC overseen by a close ally of Vice President Vance said it would invest more than $50 million in a voter-turnout operation.