Axios

President Trump will make a decision "within two weeks" on whether to join Israel's war against Iran to eliminate its nuclear program, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday.

Why it matters: Citing the "chance for substantial negotiations" with Iran, Trump is leaving the door open to a diplomatic solution in the coming days that could avert a major escalation in the Middle East.

Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) said Thursday he contacted the Capitol Police after being "run off the road" by a man displaying a Palestinian flag while he was driving in his congressional district.

Why it matters: The alleged incident comes as lawmakers are still reeling from the shooting of two Minnesota state legislators and their spouses last weekend that left one couple dead and another hospitalized.

A majority of Americans don't want the U.S. to get involved in the escalating war between Israel and Iran, a poll released this week found.

The big picture: President Trump is slated to make a decision "within two weeks" on whether to join Israel in its effort to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program, the White House said Thursday.

Following a week of immigration whiplash, President Trump's border czar Tom Homan confirmed Thursday that immigration raids will continue in the agriculture and hospitality industries.

The big picture: The Trump administration last week said it was pausing some ICE raids that would hurt those industries, but Homan's comments reaffirm that it is reversing course.

President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order to push TikTok's sale deadline for the third time this year.

Why it matters: Trump's repeated delays on the ban have begun to tick off some Senate Republicans, more than a year after a bipartisan law was passed out of serious concerns for the app's threats to national security.

A 30,000-pound bomb might be the most important weapon for Israel's war with Iran — and it's in the U.S. military's hands.

Why it matters: The U.S. alone possesses the world's most powerful non-nuclear bomb — and it's uniquely capable of targeting key Iranian facilities that Israel can't hit with its own weapons.

President Trump's hard-line approach sometimes softens. Last week, he appeared to buckle — under pressure from farm interests, as conveyed to him by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins — on his steadfast demand for the deportation of anyone who's in the U.S. illegally.

• He took to Truth Social to say some workers here illegally, working on farms or hotels, are actually "very good, long time workers." Those are the same undocumented workers ICE is rounding up, often in front of cameras, to lock up and ship away.
• But hard-ass Trump resurfaced this week, vowing to target those same "very good, long time workers" across America's biggest cities, run by Democrats.

Two genealogy sites are adding troves of historical materials about enslaved people in the U.S. to databases, which could give many of their descendants a fuller picture of their families' histories.

• The moves come as the nation on Thursday celebrates Juneteenth, the annual celebration of the end of slavery.

Why it matters: In recent years, descendants of enslaved people have gained unprecedented access to collections of long-lost family records online — made possible by advances in technology, AI, and DNA testing.

Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is considering running for president, he confirmed Wednesday.

The latest: In an interview with Crain's Chicago Business's Greg Hinz, Emanuel said, "I'm looking at the (Democratic) field, and most importantly, what I have to contribute."

Some Senate Republicans wish President Trump would quit standing in the way of the TikTok ban.

Why it matters: A bipartisan majority passed legislation requiring TikTok to divest or be banned in the U.S., and many Republicans view the app as a serious national security threat. But Trump is fine keeping it around a little longer.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) is providing some supporting Senate fire in President Trump's unrelenting assault on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Why it matters: Senate Republicans have largely defended Powell in the face of Trump's attacks and guarded the Fed's independence. But Moreno is sending a clear signal that tariffs and interest rates will be part of the conversation for whoever succeeds Powell at the Fed.

Senate GOP leadership is full steam ahead on passing the "one big, beautiful bill" next week and giving House Speaker Mike Johnson an outside chance to put it on President Trump's desk by July 4.

Why it matters: It's an aggressive timeline of their own making, and there are a lot of angsty lawmakers. But Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is sticking to the plan, for now.

A federal judge in Denver ruled Wednesday that there's probable cause to proceed with a hate crime charge against the man accused earlier this month of hurling Molotov cocktails while shouting "Free Palestine" at people gathering in Boulder in support of Israeli hostages.

Why it matters: If the hate crime charge holds, Mohamed Sabry Soliman could face life in prison. The suspect is also charged with 118 counts in Colorado state court — including 28 counts of attempted first-degree murder — and remains jailed on a $10 million bond.

The housing market's slump is getting worse, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.

• Why it matters: There's a shortage of affordable homes in America, but homebuilders face a slew of Trump-era factors that are holding back more building.
• Tariffs are making home construction more expensive, while the deportation crackdown threatens the immigrant workers who do much of the actual building.

⚒️ The latest: New data show that builders broke ground on new homes last month at the slowest pace in five years.

• The issuance of building permits, an indicator of the appetite to build homes, also hit a five-year low.
• Sentiment among homebuilders has dropped to the lowest level since 2022.

Go deeper.

The Supreme Court ruled today that states can ban hormone therapy, puberty blockers and other gender-affirming medical care for minors, Axios' Sam Baker reports.

• Roughly half the states have such laws in place, and more can now follow suit.
• The regulation of those medical procedures isn't a constitutional issue, and those "fierce scientific and policy debates" should be "left to the people, their elected representatives, and the democratic process," Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for a 6-3 majority. Read the ruling

🔮 What's next: The court usually wraps up its work by the end of June, which leaves the justices with roughly 15 cases to decide in a little over a week.

1. 🇮🇷 Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson got into a contentious argument during an interview over America's role in the escalating war between Israel and Iran — an encapsulation of the broader divide among conservatives and the MAGA faithful. Go deeper ... Watch the interview
2. 🏦 The Fed left interest rates unchanged. Its leaders projected weaker growth and higher inflation than they envisioned three months ago, but still expect two rate cuts later this year. Go deeper.
3. ☕️ HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol has pledged to "further MAHA" the coffee chain's menu. Go deeper.

This dazzling image shows the Sculptor galaxy — a spiral "starburst" galaxy that's pretty close to ours, at least by celestial standards.

• The image was compiled from 100 exposures taken by a powerful telescope in Chile, AP reports. It spans 65,000 light-years.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson got into a contentious argument over America's role in the escalating war between Israel and Iran during an interview released Wednesday.

The big picture: While the Trump administration has denied U.S. involvement in Israel's offensive operations, the prospect of America joining Israel's attacks has driven a wedge between the isolationist and pro-Israel wings of the MAGA coalition.

Despite a reprieve from President Trump, TikTok's fate still hangs in the balance — unless a potential buyer emerges.

The big picture: Trump signed an executive order on his first day in office delaying the app's ban by 75 days, effectively resurrecting it hours after the platform had gone dark.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Wednesday sent a letter to the CEO of 401(k) giant Empower, asking questions about its plan to allow private equity and credit into some of its retirement plans, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: This is an opening salvo in a political fight over expanded access to private equity, which historically has been limited to institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals.

A string of Democratic officials' arrests and clashes involving federal agents has sent a message about the way the administration responds to dissent: with force, or the threat of it.

The big picture: Critics say the Tuesday arrest of New York City comptroller Brad Lander was the latest example of the administration backing force in the face of immigration-related dissent.

The top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee is scrutinizing FBI agents' forcible removal and handcuffing of Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) at the agency's Los Angeles headquarters last week, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It is the latest salvo in an escalating tit-for-tat between Democrats and the Trump administration over federal law enforcement's use of physical and legal force against elected officials.

The Trump administration will stop connecting LGBTQ+ youth in crisis who call 988 to the Trevor Project suicide hotline next month, the group said on Wednesday.

The big picture: This will limit callers' access to counselors trained in helping LGBTQ+ youth, as President Trump targets the group that is more than four times as likely to attempt suicide than peers.

The Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that Texas and oil interests can't challenge the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's permit for a privately owned temporary nuclear waste storage site.

Why it matters: The 6-3 ruling is a win for the commission's efforts to make progress in finding a home for high-level spent fuel from commercial reactors — a longtime source of gridlock among federal and state officials.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's scheduled briefing with the Senate Intelligence Committee was postponed on Wednesday, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, multiple sources told Axios.

Why it matters: Democrats are demanding more information from the White House as President Trump considers joining the Israeli offensive against Iran.

The Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld a state law banning gender-affirming care for transgender youth.

Why it matters: Roughly half the states have similar laws on the books — and more can now freely follow suit if they want to.

Economic sentiment among America's top CEOs plunged to the lowest level since 2020, according to a new survey by the Business Roundtable, first seen by Axios.

Why it matters: Chief executives have not been this sour on the economy since the once-in-a-century pandemic, with significant downgrading expectations for hiring, investment and sales growth.

Senate Democrats on Wednesday demanded the Trump administration to share its plans to deploy active duty military in cities across the U.S.

Why it matters: President Trump's decision to send active duty Marines and National Guard to Los Angeles following pro-immigrants' rights protests sparked more demonstrations nationwide.

President Trump said Wednesday that Iran still wants to negotiate with the U.S. and even proposed sending a delegation to the White House, but that it was getting "very late" for talks and he might soon authorize strikes on Iran's nuclear program.

Why it matters: Trump is seriously considering U.S. strikes on Iran's underground nuclear facilities, which would spark retaliation on U.S. bases and other targets in the region and potentially draw the U.S. into a protracted conflict with Iran. But his remarks suggest he has not closed the door entirely on diplomacy.

The special election in Virginia to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) is getting $1 million worth of attention via broadcast TV ads, courtesy of the crypto PAC Protect Progress.

Why it matters: Crypto funds had an outsized impact on congressional elections in the 2024 election and the groups have pushed on into each of the three special elections that have come up this year.

Japan's Nippon Steel on Wednesday completed its $14.1 billion takeover of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel, and provided greater detail on its national security agreement with the American government.

Why it matters: This ends nearly 18 months of business, legal, and political drama.

Analysts are slashing estimates for U.S. EV sales in coming years as GOP lawmakers and Trump officials scuttle tax credits and emissions rules.

Why it matters: Transportation is the biggest U.S. share of CO2. And dimming sales forecasts show a market that remains tethered to fast-changing policies.

As the Supreme Court justices prepare to retire their robes for recess, several key cases with massive implications for health care, citizenship and education have yet to be decided.

Why it matters: The court has not yet weighed in on a case stemming from President Trump's effort to redefine birthright citizenship and judges' power to check the president, among other key cases on gender-affirming care, LGBTQ+ materials in schools and health care access.

Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei said in a televised speech that the Islamic Republic "will not surrender" and threatened that if the U.S. takes military action against Iran, "it will undoubtedly cause irreparable consequences to them."

Why it matters: Khamenei's message was his first response to the demand made by President Trump on Tuesday for the nation's "unconditional surrender."

New York City Comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander was arrested by federal agents for allegedly assaulting law enforcement and impeding a federal officer while escorting a defendant out of immigration court Tuesday, according to his campaign and the Department of Homeland Security.

The big picture: The incident, which was caught on video, comes amid a string of immigrant arrests at courthouses nationwide, sometimes moments after hearings conclude.

Low-income Americans are looking like the losers in the Senate version of President Trump's signature tax bill.

Why it matters: While some of Trump's preferred tax breaks for the working class made it through, other cuts still outweigh those wins, progressives and advocates for the poor argue.

The White House immigration crackdown is hitting the long-term healthcare industry, as nursing homes and care providers lose foreign-born employees and struggle to hire.

Why it matters: These folks care for the disabled and for the country's fast-growing elderly population, and they're already in short supply.

Andrew Cuomo holds a smaller-than-last month but still sizable lead over Zohran Mamdani — the surging democratic socialist from Queens — in an anticipated NYC Democratic mayoral primary poll from Marist out this morning.

Why it matters: Mamdani's charisma and populist platform — including freezing rent, no-fare buses and a $30 minimum wage by 2030 — have made him Cuomo's strongest challenger in the race to take on the "second toughest job in America."

Ten years after Donald Trump hijacked the GOP with a promise to burn down the establishment, his own movement is warning him not to go soft.

Why it matters: On two core articles of faith — no foreign wars and no protections for unauthorized immigrants — the Trump administration is facing a rare MAGA purity test.

Senate leaders are avoiding direct answers on whether President Trump needs approval from Congress before taking any military action against Iran.

Why it matters: Congress is reluctant to second-guess the commander-in-chief before he actually authorizes strikes. But Democrats have a visceral distrust of Trump, and a growing GOP faction is deeply suspicious of foreign military interventions.

Congress is joining the phone wars, with a bipartisan pair of freshmen senators introducing a bill on Tuesday that would ban the use of cellphones in schools for kids of U.S. military members.

Why it matters: Sens. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) — who both served overseas and sit on the Armed Services Committee — want to draw attention to an issue that bedevils parents and experts alike.

The Congressional Budget Office released a new "dynamic" score of President Trump's "one, big beautiful bill" on Tuesday, estimating that it would increase budget deficits by as much as $2.8 trillion over the next decade.

Why it matters: The fresh score, which factors in the effect of both higher GDP growth and higher interest rates, exceeds CBO's previous estimate of $2.4 trillion in deficit costs.