U.S. told Israel it won't participate in an Israeli strike on Iran
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Trump and Netanyahu in the Oval Office. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Update: Israel began attacking Iran's nuclear sites on Thursday night.
The Trump administration told the Israeli government the U.S. won't be directly involved in any Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, two U.S. sources and an Israeli source familiar with those discussions tell Axios.
Why it matters: Officials in the U.S., Israel and Iran are all preparing for a scenario where U.S.-Iran nuclear talks collapse, Israel orders waves of strikes on Iran, and Iran retaliates by attacking Israel and U.S. bases in the region — possibly all within the next week or so.
- President Trump confirmed Thursday that Israeli strikes "might very well happen."
Privately, the administration has informed Israel that would be a solo mission, not a joint operation, at least in terms of bombing and other offensive kinetic activity.
- The sources did not say whether the U.S. would provide assistance in terms of intelligence or logistics, such as with aerial refueling.
- The U.S. would almost certainly help Israel defend itself from Iranian retaliation, as it has during past Iranian attacks.
Zoom in: While Israel could cause significant damage to Iran's nuclear program, an Israeli operation would be more limited than one involving U.S. participation.
- Israel's air force doesn't have B-2 or B-52 bombers that can carry the massive bunker buster bombs that would likely be needed to hit Iran's Fordow underground uranium enrichment facility, which is built deep inside a mountain.
- Israel would likely attempt to repeatedly strike the same targets over the course of multiple days in order to damage Iran's underground sites. Analysts are divided on the likelihood of success.
- The WSJ reported earlier Thursday that the U.S. wouldn't provide "offensive" assistance for an attack on Iran.
State of play: Iran has vowed to strike U.S. targets in the region in the event of any attack on its nuclear program.
- The U.S. is in the process of withdrawing diplomats and military families who could be in harm's way.
Driving the news: The Pentagon canceled on Thursday a planned visit to Israel this weekend by CENTCOM commander Gen. Erik Kurilla, a U.S. official said.
- The cancellation of the visit was another sign that the U.S. doesn't want to be seen as cooperating with an Israeli strike against Iran.
- The White House and the Israeli embassy in Washington declined to comment.
What they're saying: Trump told reporters Thursday that he doesn't want to say an Israeli strike "is imminent," but it might happen.
- Trump stressed he wants to avoid conflict but said that will require concessions that Iran has been unwilling to make.
- He added that so long as there's a chance of a deal, he doesn't want Israel to do anything to "blow it."
Between the lines: Trump's remarks urging Israel not to attack while talks are taking place wasn't coordinated with the Israeli government, according to a U.S. source familiar.
- Israel previously assured the White House it wouldn't move unless the talks fail, as Axios reported last week.
State of play: Israeli officials say the Israel Defense Forces are on high alert and preparing to strike Iran quickly if White House envoy Steve Witkoff's diplomacy fails this weekend.
- Witkoff will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday in Oman to discuss Iran's response to the U.S. nuclear deal proposal.
- That meeting, and the U.S. assessment of whether there's still a path to a deal, could determine whether diplomacy continues or conflict begins.
